新时期我国战略性新兴产业发展宏观研究
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Macro Research on the Development of Chinese Strategic Emerging Industries in the New Era

新时期我国战略性新兴产业发展宏观研究

A group of scholars from the Chinese Academy of Engineering analyze China’s capabilities and deficiencies as Beijing seeks to develop strategic emerging industries. They argue that such a push is needed because “China’s massive industrial system is still at the mid-to-low end of the global value chain, and it has a serious lack of key core technologies, which threatens industrial security.”


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Preface

一、前言

At present, a new round of scientific and technological (S&T) and industrial revolutions are accelerating, displaying many new characteristics, while profound changes are taking place in industrial formats, core elements, and competitive paradigms. Global S&T innovation has entered a new stage of multipoint breakthroughs and group progress. Disruptive technologies continue to emerge, giving rise to new technologies, new formats, and new models that have an unprecedented and profound impact on traditional production methods and lifestyles. The world’s major economies continue to vigorously promote the development of emerging industries as important national or regional strategies. At the same time, they are adopting a main development strategy of increasing S&T investment and encouraging S&T innovation. The United States issued its National Strategic Overview for Quantum Information Science, which holds that quantum information S&T will lead a new round of technological revolutions and cause major changes in national security, economic development, and basic scientific research. At the same time, the United States has proposed national strategies for the development of 5G mobile communication technology along with rural networking, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced transportation, cybersecurity, and digital economy. Japan regards the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, and robotics as the core of the fourth industrial revolution. They have established a complete research and development (R&D) promotion mechanism at the national level and, at the same time, are increasing support for the aerospace industry and the hydrogen fuel application industry. The United Kingdom has set four major challenges involving leading the global technological revolution and orienting toward future industries, namely AI and the digital economy, clean development, future transportation, and aging society. Germany aims to maintain or regain its economic and technological strength, competitiveness, and industrial leadership in relevant fields in Europe and the world.

当前,新一轮科技革命和产业革命加速推进,呈现出许多新特征,产业形态、核心要素和竞争范式正在发生深刻变化。全球科技创新已进入多点突破、群体迸发的新阶段,颠覆性技术不断涌现,催生新技术、新业态、新模式,对传统生产方式和生活方式构成前所未有的深刻影响。世界主要经济体继续将大力推动新兴产业发展作为国家或地区重要战略,同时采取加大科技投入、鼓励科技创新的主要发展策略。美国发布了《量子信息科学国家战略概述》,认为量子信息科技引领新一轮技术革命,将给国家安全、经济发展、基础科研等带来重大变革。同时,美国提出了发展第五代移动通信技术(5G)与农村联网、先进制造、人工智能(AI)、先进交通运输、网络安全、数字经济等国家战略。日本将物联网、AI 和机器人作为第四次产业革命的核心,在国家层面建立了完整的研发促进机制,同时加大对航空航天产业和氢燃料应用产业的扶持力度。英国确立了引领全球技术革命、面向未来产业前沿的 4 项重大挑战,即 AI 与数字经济、清洁发展、未来交通运输、老龄化社会。德国旨在确保或重夺相关领域在欧洲乃至全球的经济技术实力、竞争力和工业领先地位。

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China’s economy has developed rapidly, and it has established a relatively comprehensive industrial system. However, China’s massive industrial system is still at the mid-to-low end of the global value chain, and it has a serious lack of key core technologies, which threatens industrial security. Strategic emerging industries represent the direction of the new round of S&T and industrial revolutions. In recent years, they have displayed strong development momentum. Continuing to develop strategic emerging industries is essential for China’s achievement of its “two centennial” objectives and its seizing of the commanding heights of international S&T and industry. Academic circles have conducted a great deal of research on the development of strategic emerging industries, which can be roughly divided into three aspects. The first is research from the perspective of a specific industry such as AI, new energy, and digital creativity; the second is research from the perspective of the development of strategic emerging industries in a certain area, such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, or Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; and the third is research from the perspective of policy support and guidance for strategic emerging industries. These studies have put forward many innovative paths, viewpoints, and measures, but under the new situation, there is a lack of macro-research from the height of national strategy and the level of strategic emerging industries as a whole. To this end, based on extensive investigations and project research, this article considers and analyzes the development of China’s strategic emerging industries from a strategic, macroscopic, and forward-looking perspective.

改革开放 40 多年来,我国经济飞速发展,已经建立了较为全面的产业体系。然而,我国庞大的产业体系仍处于全球价值链的中低端,关键核心技术缺失严重,进而威胁到产业安全。战略性新兴产业代表了新一轮科技革命和产业变革的方向,近年来表现出强劲的发展势头。继续发展战略性新兴产业对我国实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标,抢占国际科技和产业制高点至关重要。学术界对战略性新兴产业发展进行了大量研究,大致分为三方面。一是AI、新能源和数字创意等具体产业角度 [1~3];二是从长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、京津冀等区域战略性新兴产业发展角度 [4,5];三是从战略性新兴产业的政策支持和导向角度 [6,7]。这些研究提出了很多创新的路径、观点和措施,但在新形势下缺乏从国家战略高度、从战略性新兴产业整体层面进行的宏观研究。为此,本文在广泛调研和项目研究的基础上,从战略、宏观和前瞻角度对我国战略性新兴产业发展进行了思考和分析。

Progress and Problems of Strategic Emerging Industries

二、战略性新兴产业进展和面临的问题

China attaches great importance to the development of strategic emerging industries and has issued many policy documents in a concentrated manner. Under the influence of the macro policies of national and local governments and with the cooperation of enterprises and capital markets, the development of strategic emerging industries presents distinctive features, such as continuous expansion in scale, strong growth in key areas, efficient clustering of elements, continuous improvement in innovation capabilities, and continuous improvement of the policy environment. This allows them to amply fulfill their role as the engine driving the high-quality development of the economy. By the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the value added by strategic emerging industries accounted for 8 percent of GDP. These industries successfully completed the goals set for them and a large number of new technologies, new products, new models, and new formats emerged, becoming strong supports for stabilizing growth, promoting reform, adjusting structures, and benefiting the livelihood of the people. From 2015 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of the industrial added value of strategic emerging industries above a designated scale reached 10.1 percent, 3.8 percentage points higher than the growth of overall national industrial added value above a designated scale during the same period. The average annual growth rate of operating income of service enterprises above a designated scale in strategic emerging industries was 15.7 percent, 3.7 percentage points higher than the operating income growth of service industry enterprises above a designated scale nationwide during the same period. Major breakthroughs have been made in key technologies such as digital economy, industrial internet, and AI, and the next-generation mobile communications, photovoltaic, and nuclear power industries have reached world-leading levels. New models and new business formats continue to emerge, and the development trend of the cross-border integration of industries has become more and more prominent, forming a number of industrial clusters with distinctive characteristics and obvious advantages. In addition, a supporting industry promotion policy system has taken initial shape.

我国高度重视战略性新兴产业的发展,密集出台了多项政策文件。在国家和地方政府宏观政策的影响下,在企业和资本市场的配合下,战略性新兴产业发展呈现出规模不断壮大、重点领域增长强劲、要素高效聚集、创新能力持续提升以及政策环境不断完善等鲜明特征,充分发挥了引领经济高质量发展的引擎作用。到“十二五”末,战略性新兴产业增加值占国内生产总值(GDP)比重达到8%,顺利完成了既定目标,并且涌现出大批新技术、新产品、新模式、新业态,成为稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生的有力支撑。2015—2018 年,战略性新兴产业规模以上工业增加值年均增速达到 10.1%,高于同期规模以上全国整体工业增加值3.8 个百分点;战略性新兴产业规模以上服务业企业营业收入年均增速为 15.7%,高于同期全国规模以上服务业企业营业收入 3.7 个百分点 [8]。数字经济、工业互联网、AI 等关键技术取得重大突破,新一代移动通信、光伏和核电等产业达到世界领先水平;新模式和新业态不断涌现,产业跨界融合发展趋势越发明显,形成了一批具有特色、优势明显的产业集群。此外,配套的产业促进政策体系初步形成。

But there are also some problems in the development of China’s strategic emerging industries, and the scales of such industries still lag behind the targets set for the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

我国战略性新兴产业在发展中也存在一些问题,产业规模较“十三五”时期制定的目标还有一定差距。

(i) Insufficient coordination between national and local policies has resulted in serious industrial homogeneity and overcapacity.
( 一 ) 国家和地方政策统筹不够,造成产业同质化严重、产能过剩

Strategic emerging industries include five main industries: new-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, biologics, green and low-carbon, and digital creativity. The focuses of strategic emerging industry development efforts by all provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in the country are basically centered on these five industries. However, due to the insufficient coordination between national and local policies, local governments often carry out layout and planning from their own perspectives. As a result, some strategic emerging industries have serious homogeneity and overcapacity, while other industries and major key technologies are lacking. Some local governments do not clearly understand the development priorities of the various industries and mechanically incorporate various projects into their strategic emerging industry plans. Although some local governments are very proactive in developing strategic emerging industries, they are limited in their mindsets and continue the old methods of traditional industrial development in their ideas concerning the development of strategic emerging industries. A large amount of invested capital often flows to the back-end manufacturing links or is even used to directly purchase foreign production lines, while many high-end products still rely heavily on imports.

战略性新兴产业主要包括新一代信息技术、高端装备制造、生物、绿色低碳和数字创意等五大产业,全国各省、市、自治区战略性新兴产业的发展重点基本上都围绕这五大产业展开。然而,由于国家和地方政策统筹性不够,地方政府较多从自身角度出发进行布局和谋划,从而造成了部分战略性新兴产业同质化严重、产能过剩,而其他产业及重大关键技术缺位等问题。有些地方政府未能清楚认识各个产业的发展重点,机械地将各类项目纳入战略性新兴产业规划。有些地方政府虽然发展战略性新兴产业的积极性很高,但限于思维定势,在战略性新兴产业发展思路方面仍然延续传统产业发展的老办法;投入的大量资金往往流入后端的制造环节,甚至直接去购买国外的生产线,与此同时很多高端产品仍然严重依赖进口。

(ii) China has established a relatively complete industrial system, but the problem of large but not strong is quite prominent.
( 二 ) 我国建立了比较完整的产业体系,但大而不强的问题较为突出

Since the commencement of Sino-U.S. trade friction, China has more clearly recognized the shortcomings of its production chains, and the phenomenon that key core technologies and “stranglehold” (卡脖子) technologies are restricted by others has come to the fore. First, some industries still have a large number of core bottlenecks links to be broken through. For example, key products such as high-performance aviation engines and high-end chips have long been dependent on imports, and China does not yet have independent production capabilities for them. Second, the basic capabilities of industries such as core basic components, advanced basic processing technology, and key basic materials are relatively weak, and industrial upgrading and development capabilities still have not reached the independent and controllable level. Finally, the independent innovation capabilities of emerging industries need to be further improved. There are many shortcomings in basic scientific research investment, scientific infrastructure construction, and the efficient commercialization of research results, and there remains a big gap to bridge to achieve the formation of new industry development patterns led by independent innovation.

自中美贸易摩擦以来,国内更清楚地认识到我国各产业链存在的短板环节,关键核心技术和“卡脖子”技术受制于人的现象突出。首先,部分产业尚有大量核心瓶颈环节有待突破,例如,高性能航空发动机、高端芯片等重点产品长期依赖进口,尚不具备自主生产能力;其次,核心基础零部、先进基础工艺、关键基础材料等产业基础能力较为薄弱,产业升级发展能力距离自主可控尚有较差距;最后,新兴产业自主创新能力有待进一步提高,在基础科学研究投入、科学基础设施建、研究成果高效转化等方面存在着较多不足,距离形成以自主创新为主导的新兴产业发展格局尚有较大差距。

(iii) China’s S&T resources are abundant but relatively dispersed.
( 三 ) 我国科技资源丰富但较为分散

In 2018, China’s total R&D investment was nearly 2 trillion yuan, maintaining a trend of double-digit growth over many years and ranking second in the world in overall scale. China leads the world in S&T resources, such as its stock of large-scale instruments and scientific research data, but the problem of resource dispersion remains to be solved, and the combination of forces has yet to be fully formed. On the one hand, China’s S&T management authority is scattered across different departments, so multiple types of scientific research platforms supported by different channels have been established. This has led to a decentralized platform layout and decentralized financial support, and no combined force can be formed. On the other hand, facing the new domestic and international situation, various provinces and regions have, one after another, introduced policies and measures to strive to promote technological progress and vigorously develop strategic emerging industries. To a certain extent, this has achieved results, but it has caused the further dispersion of S&T resources and made it impossible to form a cluster effect.

2018 年,我国研发经费投入总量近 2 万亿元,连续多年保持两位数增长,整体规模稳居世界第。型仪器保有量和科研数据等科技资源全球领先,但是资源分散问题仍然没有解决,未能充分形成合力。一方面,我国科技管理权限分散在不同部门,因而设立了由不同渠道支持建设的多类科研平台,造成了平台布局分散、财政资金支持分散的现象,不能形成合力。另一方面,面对国内外新形势,各省各地区纷纷出台政策措施,努力推进技术进步并大力发展战略性新兴产业,这在一定程度上取得了成效,但是造成了科技资源的进一步分散,不能形成集聚效应。

(iv) Talent incentive mechanisms urgently require solutions
( 四 ) 人才激励机制亟待解决

Talent, especially high-end talent, is the primary resource, and the development of strategic emerging industries has a particularly urgent demand for talent. Since China implemented its talent superpower strategy, a series of remarkable achievements have been made in the development of emerging industries. At the same time, however, they are also facing urgent problems. Among all the problems they face, the most important thing is to explore the establishment of talent incentive mechanisms and sharing mechanisms that are compatible with the nationwide S&T system in the new era. There are also some phenomena worthy of reflection. For example, in order to pursue development, local competition for talent intensified, and prominent problems such as policy duplication, policy one-upmanship, and vicious competition have emerged. To varying degrees, these problems lead to the disorderly flow of talents, the misallocation of talent resources, and the inefficient utilization of talents.

人才特别是高端人才是首要资源,战略性新兴产业发展对人才的需求尤为迫切。自我国实施人才强国战略以来,新兴产业发展取得了一系列显著成就,与此同时也面临亟待解决的问题。在所有面临的问题中,最重要的是探索建立与新时代举国科技体制相适应的人才激励机制和共享机制。还有一些现象值得反思,如为了谋求发展,地方人才竞争和人才争夺愈演愈烈,出现了政策雷同、政策攀比和恶性竞争等突出问题。这些问题会在不同程度上导致人才无序流动、人才资源配置失当、人才发挥效率低下。

Analysis of the Urgency of Strategic Emerging Industry Development

三、战略性新兴产业发展的紧迫性分析

Facing the trend of fierce international competition and the development needs of China, it is particularly urgent to accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries in the new era.

面对国际激烈竞争态势和我国的发展需要,加快新时期战略性新兴产业培育与发展显得尤为迫切。

We must gain an in-depth understanding of the arduousness and long-term nature of the Sino-U.S. game. As the sole global hegemon, the core goal of U.S. global strategy is to ensure its position as world hegemon. With the fast development and rapid rise of China’s economy and its second rank in comprehensive national strength globally, it is highly probable that the U.S. global strategic focus will shift to strategic competition with China. This will become the core content of the global strategic game for a long time to come. There is a view that if China makes technological progress in industries where it has comparative advantages, it will benefit the United States, but if China makes technological progress in industries where the United States has comparative advantages, the United States will suffer. With the establishment of technological advantages in 5G, AI, and other fields, China is trying to build a high-tech industrial system with competitive advantages, so China and the United States have fallen into the “Samuelson Trap.” Therefore, we must be fully prepared for the long-term and arduous nature of the Sino-U.S. game.

深刻认识中美博弈的艰巨性和长期性。美国作为世界唯一的霸权国,其全球战略的核心目标是确保美国的世界霸权地位。随着中国经济飞速发展和快速崛起,综合国力位列全球第二,美国全球战略重心转移到中美战略竞争上来是大概率事件,将成为今后较长时期内全球战略博弈的核心内容。有观点认为,如果中国在自身具有比较优势的产业上取得技术进步,则有利于美国;如果中国在美国具有比较优势的产业上取得技术进步,则美国受损;随着 5G、AI 等领域技术优势的确立,中国尝试构建具有竞争优势的高科技产业体系,中美之间已然落入“萨缪尔森陷阱”[9]。因此,应对中美博弈的长期性和艰巨性做好充分的准备。

China urgently needs to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries. After years of rapid development, while China has made great achievements, it is also facing problems such as resource shortages and serious pollution of the atmosphere, water, and soil. A shift to high-quality development is imminent. The focus of high-quality development is on promoting the transformation and upgrade of the industrial structure and making the real economy more solid, stronger, and better. Emerging industries refer to the types of industries that have immense development potential but are still in the “emergence” or preliminary stage of development. Compared with traditional industries, they feature low energy consumption, low pollution, and high returns. They are an important starting point for building new momentum for economic development and improving industrial competitiveness. In addition to the basic characteristics of emerging industries, strategic emerging industries must also form a good industrial layout and lay a key foundation to address the demands of longer-term economic and social development. In view of the unique positioning of strategic emerging industries, it is urgent that we make them the top priority of economic construction in the new era and accelerate the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.

我国迫切需要加快战略性新兴产业发展。经过多年的高速发展,我国在取得巨大成就的同时,也面临着资源短缺,大气、水、土壤严重污染等问题,转向高质量发展迫在眉睫。高质量发展的重点是推动产业结构转型升级,将实体经济做实、做强、做优。新兴产业是指发展潜力巨大但目前还处于“苗头”或者初步发展阶段的产业类型,相对传统产业具有耗能低、污染小、回报高的特点,是构建经济发展新动能并提高产业竞争力的重要抓手。战略性新兴产业除具有新兴产业的基本特征外,还需面向更长远的经济社会发展需求,做好产业布局,打好关键基础。鉴于战略性新兴产业的独特定位,新时期迫切需要将其作为经济建设重中之重,加快新旧动能转化步伐。

Accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries provides an important guarantee for breaking through the middle-income trap. Since the Second World War, most middle-income countries have fallen into the middle-income trap. Only a few middle-income countries have achieved leapfrog development and become high-income countries. The middle-income trap has become a challenge that developing countries must face after they enter the middle-income stage. According to the World Bank’s 2018 income classification standards, countries with per capita gross national income (GNI) less than $1,025 are low-income countries. Those with per capita GNIs between $1,026 and $3,995 are lower-middle-income countries, those in the range $3,996 to $12,375 are upper-middle-income countries, and those with per capita GNIs of $12,376 and above are high-income countries. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s per capita GNI reached $9,732 in 2018, which is close to the upper limit of the upper-middle-income country range. China is the largest developing country in the world. Since reform and opening up, our economy has developed rapidly, creating a world miracle. However, this sort of development was primarily extensive and labor intensive, which is an unsustainable development method. As a result, how to successfully overcome the middle-income trap has become a difficult problem that China must solve. By studying the cases of Japan’s and South Korea’s successful leapfrogging and the profound difficulties of Latin American countries as well as by analyzing the actual situation in China, we found that upgrading traditional industries and cultivating strategic emerging industries is the inevitable path to overcome the middle-income trap.

加快发展战略性新兴产业是突破“中等收入陷阱”的重要保证。第二次世界大战以来,大多数中等收入国家陷入了“中等收入陷阱”,只有少数中等新时期我国战略性新兴产业发展宏观研究收入国家实现了跨越式发展而成为高收入国家。“中等收入陷阱”成为发展中国家进入中等收入阶段后所必须面对的挑战。按照世界银行 2018 年收入分组标准,人均国民总收入低于 1025 美元的为低收入国家,在 1026~3995 美元的为中等偏下收入国家,在 3996~12 375 美元的为中等偏上收入国家,高于12 376 美元的为高收入国家。据国家统计局统计,2018 年我国人均国民总收入达到 9732 美元,接近中等偏上收入国家的上限。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,自改革开放以来经济快速发展,创造了世界奇迹,但这种发展以粗放型和劳动密集型为主要特征,属于不可持续的发展方式。因此,如何顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”成为中国必须解决的难题。通过对日本、韩国成功跨越和拉美国家深陷困境的案例研究,以及中国的实际情况分析发现,升级传统产业和培育战略性新兴产业是跨越“中等收入陷阱”的必然路径。

Ideas for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries

四、战略性新兴产业发展思路

The top-level designs for the cultivation and development of Chinese strategic emerging industries are basically complete. In the new development stage, we must continue to place strategic emerging industries in a more prominent position in economic and social development, coordinate and promote integration with traditional industries, and jointly build a modern industrial system for the country. Under the framework of the national modern industrial system, we must accurately identify key technological shortcomings (关键短板技术, technologies whose underdevelopment brings down the overall level) in emerging industries and adhere to the “two concurrent lines” (双线并举) of international cooperation and independent research. We must further coordinate domestic resources, accelerate the regional layout of strategic emerging industries, and promote the cluster-based development of emerging industries.

我国战略性新兴产业培育与发展的顶层设计已经基本完善。在新的发展阶段,要继续将战略性新兴产业摆在经济社会发展更加突出的位置,与传统产业互相协调、促进融合,共同构建国家现代产业体系。在国家现代产业体系框架下,准确识别出新兴产业的关键短板技术,坚持国际合作和自主攻关“双线并举”。进一步统筹国内资源,加快战略性新兴产业区域布局,助推新兴产业集群化发展。

We must cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries as important pillars of China’s modern industrial system and further optimize and clarify the scope of strategic emerging industries. At present, the main strategic emerging industries cultivated and developed in China include the new-generation information technology, biologics, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, green and low-carbon, and digital creative industries. After years of development, some industries have already grown strong. For example, China’s new energy vehicle sales reached 1.256 million vehicles in 2018, accounting for more than half of the global market. Such industries should gradually withdraw from the ranks of strategic emerging industries, while strategic and forward-looking emerging industries such as quantum information science, strategic computing, and productive services should gradually be included in the ranks of strategic emerging industries. This will further enhance the level and scale of emerging industries in the country’s modern industrial system. China’s modern industrial system is divided into two main categories: traditional industries and strategic emerging industries. While vigorously developing strategic emerging industries, we must encourage the application of emerging technologies in traditional industries, promote the integration of emerging industries and traditional industries, further improve the level of production chains, and push the industrial system to move toward the mid-to-high end of the global value chain.

培育和发展战略性新兴产业,将之作为国家现代产业体系中的重要支柱,进一步优化和明确战略性新兴产业的范围。目前我国培育和发展的战略性新兴产业主要包括新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新材料、绿色低碳和数字创意等产业。经过多年发展,部分产业已经发展壮大,如 2018 年我国新能源汽车销量达 125.6 万辆,占全球市场份额的一半以上。这类产业应逐步退出战略性新兴产业行列,而量子信息科学、战略计算和生产性服务业等具有战略性和前瞻性的新兴产业应逐步纳入战略性新兴产业行列,以进一步提升新兴产业在国家现代产业体系中的层次和规模。我国的现代产业体系主要分为传统产业和战略性新兴产业两大类。在大力发展战略性新兴产业的同时,鼓励将新兴技术运用到传统产业领域,推动新兴产业与传统产业融合,进一步提升产业链水平,促进产业体系迈向全球价值链的中高端。

We must do a good job in the identification, classification, and strategic deployment for key technological shortcomings in strategic emerging industries. China is a country with many industrial categories, so we also have many industrial shortcomings and many key core technologies. It is impossible to solve all our problems at the same time. First, we must rationally organize the shortcomings and core key technologies in the various production chains of strategic emerging industries. Under the current situation of limited resources, we should concentrate superior resources on the solution of core key technological shortcomings that are in urgent need of a solution and can be solved. For key technological shortcomings that require a long time to achieve a breakthrough, we should propose a phased strategic objective deployment in order to achieve orderly implementation and gradual progress. Second, we must rationally organize our strengths in the production chains of strategic emerging industries and the strengths we have in our weak areas to increase the difficulty of international industrial technology decoupling, forming a situation of mutual dependence and mutual checks and balances. With the constantly accelerating process of globalization, the global industrial value chain and supply chain layout have already been formed, and the interdependence of global production chains has been continuously strengthened. For example, intermediate components (中间件, usually translated as middleware) make up two-thirds of the current global trade volume. The higher the proportion of intermediate components, the greater the internationalization of production chain structures and operations. That is to say, the global interdependence of “you in me, me in you” has intensified, greatly increasing the objective difficulties and costs of technological decoupling.

做好战略性新兴产业关键短板技术的识别分类和战略部署。我国是拥有较多工业门类的国家,因而产业短板多、关键核心技术多,不可能同时解决所有难题。首先,梳理战略性新兴产业各产业链中的短板和核心关键技术,在资源有限的现状下,对于需求迫切且能够攻克的核心关键短板技术,应集中优势资源予以解决;对于需要长时间才能突破的关键短板技术,应提出分阶段的战略目标部署,做到有序实施、逐步推进。其次,梳理战略性新兴产业各产业链中的长板以及短板中的长板,增加国际产业技术脱钩的难度,形成既相互依赖又相互制衡的局面。随着全球化进程不断加快,全球产业的价值链、供应链格局已经形成,全球产业链的相互依赖关系不断加强。例如,当前全球贸易额中有 2/3是中间件,中间件占比越高,意味着产业链构成和运行的国际化程度越高,即“你中有我、我中有你”的全球化相互依赖特征加剧,在客观上大大增加了技术脱钩的难度和成本。

At the national level, we must scientifically plan the regional layout of strategic emerging industries and cultivate industrial clusters in a healthy manner. At present, urban agglomerations or metropolitan areas, as represented by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, have become the most important fronts along which China can gather production factors and drive regional economic growth. In the context of the continuous deepening of regional integration, it has become possible to integrate the advantageous resources of different regions and plan strategic emerging industry layouts across provinces, thereby breaking down the current barriers of homogeneity and disorderly competition. In addition, in response to the various types of industrial clusters proposed by provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions as well as the problems of homogeneity and disorderly competition between provinces, and even between cities and counties, we can optimize the layout of industrial clusters in two respects: (1) develop the horizontal layout of innovative industrial clusters and resource-based industrial clusters on the basis of regional advantages; and (2) develop the vertical layout of inter-provincial (regional) industrial clusters, provincial industrial clusters, and characteristic industrial clusters. For inter-provincial (regional) industrial clusters, we should start from the level of national regional development strategy, make plans for the whole country, and build institutions and mechanisms for cross-provincial coordination. For provincial-level industrial clusters, we should use national top-level designs and overall regional layouts as our basis to avoid resource waste and overcapacity in emerging industries caused by disorderly competition. For characteristic industrial clusters, we should plan the layout according to the actual situation in the province.

在国家层面科学谋划战略性新兴产业的区域布局,健康培育产业集群。当前,以京津冀、长江三角洲、粤港澳大湾区为代表的城市群或大都市圈已经成为我国汇聚生产要素、带动地区经济增长最为重要的阵地。在区域一体化水平不断加深的背景下,整合区域优势资源、跨省区谋划战略性新兴产业布局成为可能,由此破除当前存在的同质化和无序竞争壁垒。此外,针对各省、市、自治区提出的各种类型产业集群,以及省与省之间,甚至市与市、县与县之间都存在的同质化和无序竞争问题,可以从两个方面对产业集群进行优化布局:一是立足区域优势,开展创新型产业集群和资源型产业集群的横向布局;二是开展局省际(区域)产业集群、省级产业集群和特色产业集群的纵向布局。对于省际(区域)产业集群,应从国家区域发展战略层面出发,面向全国范围加以谋划,构建好跨省协调的体制机制;对于省级产业集群,应立足国家顶层设计和区域总体布局,避免资源浪费以及无序竞争导致的新兴产业产能过剩;对于特色产业集群,宜根据省内实际情况加以谋划布局。

Suggested Measures

五、措施建议

In the vigorous development of strategic emerging industries, national policies have played an irreplaceable role. In the past 10 years, China has focused on adjusting its industrial supply structure, improving its industrial development environment, and expanding the industrial market demand and introduced specific measures such as for personnel training, financial support, technical support, public services, target planning, financial support, laws and regulations, property rights protection, tax incentives, government procurement, trade policies, user subsidies, application demonstrations, and price guidance. In order to further promote the healthy development of China’s strategic emerging industries, we recommend that we focus on the following aspects in the new era.

战略性新兴产业的蓬勃发展,国家政策发挥了不可替代的作用。10 年来,我国从调整产业供给结构、改善产业发展环境和拓展产业市场需求等方面着力,出台了人才培养、资金支持、技术支持、公共服务、目标规划、金融支持、法规规范、产权保护、税收优惠、政府采购、贸易政策、用户补贴、应用示范和价格指导等具体措施 [8]。为进一步推动我国战略性新兴产业健康发展,建议在新时期重点关注以下方面。

(i) Strengthen top-level design and include strategic emerging industries as important content in the national 14th Five-Year Plan.
(一)强化顶层设计,将战略性新兴产业作为重

As China’s economic development enters a new normal and high-quality development stage and the economic growth momentum shifts from factor-driven to innovation-driven, we must further strengthen the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, continue to highlight the development of strategic emerging industries in the national 14th Five-Year Plan, support the issuance of special plans, and promote the shift of industrial structure from the low-to-mid-end to the mid-to-high end. In addition, we must issue and implement national strategies such as innovation-driven development, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, Yangtze River Economic Belt development, ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and regional integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta to facilitate the layout and development of strategic emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan. In the process of formulating the national 14th Five-Year Plan and the development plans for strategic emerging industries, we must fully consider how to organically integrate them with the national strategy and further clarify the positioning, goals, and tasks of strategic emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan. In the national strategic emerging industry plan, we must fully reflect the development dynamics and situation changes of the international industry. On the basis of the development during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, we must closely integrate the macro requirements of China’s economic and social development and the directions of S&T breakthroughs, optimize and select industries that have been included in the scope of strategic emerging industries, and deploy new industries in a timely manner.

要内容纳入国家“十四五”规划中,出台“十四五”国家战略性新兴产业发展专项规划随着我国经济发展步入新常态和高质量发展阶段,经济增长动力从要素驱动转向创新驱动,需要进一步强化战略性新兴产业的培育与发展,继续在国家“十四五”规划中突出战略性新兴产业发展,并配套出台专项规划,推动产业结构由中低端迈向中高端。此外,创新驱动发展、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带发展、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展、粤港澳大湾区建设、长江三角洲区域一体化发展等国家战略的发布实施,有利于“十四五”战略性新兴产业的布局和发展。在国家“十四五”规划以及战略性新兴产业发展规划制定过程中,要充分考虑如何与国家战略有机结合,进一步明确“十四五”战略性新兴产业的定位、目标和任务。在“十四五”国家战略性新兴产业规划中应充分反映国际产业的发展动态和形势变化。在“十二五”“十三五”发展的基础上,紧密结合国家经济社会发展的宏观需求和科技突破方向,对已经列入战略性新兴产业范围的产业进行优化和筛选,及时部署新产业。

(ii) Explore a nationwide system for the new era, establish inter-provincial and inter-departmental coordination mechanisms, and jointly implement S&T research.
(二)探索新时代举国体制,建立跨省、跨部门的

For basic research and weak links, and especially for some key technological and industry shortcomings, we must give full play to the advantages of the new nationwide system of “concentrating efforts to do big things” (集中力量办大事), establish inter-departmental and inter-provincial coordination mechanisms, and pool advantageous S&T and R&D resources from around the country to efficiently implement centralized research. Exploratory practice has shown that, as a new exploration of the nationwide system of S&T for the new era in China, national laboratories can effectively integrate S&T resources to build new types of national research platforms. The current construction model for national laboratories mainly focuses on the integration of the many decentralized platforms of departments and commissions at different levels. It must be further strengthened by integrating advantageous resources across provinces and stimulating the enthusiasm of provinces and regions. To this end, for basic research and key technological and industry shortcomings, we must establish sound incentive, assessment, and mobilization mechanisms and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all provinces and regions to participate in the construction of national laboratories. At the same time, we must ensure that all provinces and regions can promptly share in the dividends generated by the output of national laboratories. The focus of the work of the provinces and regions must be on targeted industrial layout and adjustments based on their own and regional advantages and aimed at the output of national laboratories as well as on promoting the optimization and development of emerging industrial clusters.

协调机制,联合实施科技攻关对于基础研究和薄弱环节,特别是一些关键的短板技术和产业,发挥“集中力量办大事”的新型举国体制优势,建立跨部门和跨省区的协调机制,汇聚国家优势科技研发资源以高效实施集中攻关。探索实践表明,国家实验室作为我国新时代科技举国体制的新探索,能够有效整合科技资源以构建新型国家研究平台。现行的国家实验室建设模式主要侧重诸多部委层级分散平台的整合,而在省际优势资源整合、激发省区积极性方面还需要进一步加强。为此,对于基础研究以及关键的短板技术和产业,建立健全激励考核和动员机制,充分调动各省区的积极性参与国家实验室的建设,同时保障各省区能够及时分享到国家实验室产出带来的红利。各省区的工作重点在于根据自身和区域优势、瞄准国家实验室产出,针对性开展产业布局和调整,推动新兴产业集群的优化发展。

(iii) Explore new incentive mechanisms for industrial talents and establish and improve talent sharing mechanisms.
(三)探索产业人才的新型激励机制,建立健全人才共享机制

Great changes have taken place in the domestic and international environment, and there is an urgent need to explore supporting talent incentive mechanisms. First, we must provide reasonable protections at the material level; effectively solve the basic problems of children’s education, housing, and medical care of industrial talents; eliminate their worries; and lay a solid foundation that allows them to devote themselves to industrial innovation and development. Second, we must stimulate the fighting spirit at the spiritual level; fully implement spiritual guidance based on the people-oriented, respect for innovation, and value creation concepts; and improve the social status and sense of identity of industrial talents. Pay attention to public opinion guidance and create a good atmosphere in which the whole society, and especially young people, respect science and respect talents. Finally, we must establish an industrial talent archive nationwide, improve part-time talent systems, and build flexible talent sharing mechanisms.

国内外环境发生了巨大变化,迫切需要探索与之配套的人才激励机制。首先从物质层面予以合理保障,切实解决产业人才的子女教育、住房和医疗等基本问题,消除后顾之忧,为其全身心投入产业创新发展奠定坚实基础。其次从精神层面激发斗志,全面落实以人为本、尊重创新、创造价值的精神导向,提高产业人才的社会地位和认同感;注重舆论引导,营造全社会特别是青少年尊重科学、尊重人才的良好氛围。最后在全国范围内建立产业人才档案库,完善人才兼职制度,构建灵活的人才共享机制。

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Cite This Page

崔磊磊 (Cui Leilei), 杜祥琬 (Du Xiangwan), 葛琴 (Ge Qin), 李彬 (Li Bin), 刘晓龙 (Liu Xiaolong). "Macro Research on the Development of Chinese Strategic Emerging Industries in the New Era [新时期我国战略性新兴产业发展宏观研究]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Strategic Study of CAE [中国工程科学], March 27, 2020

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