乌烟瘴油气——俄乌冲突与骤然放大的能源安全角
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In an Oil and Gas Fumed Atmosphere ——The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Suddenly Magnified Energy Security Perspective [Excerpt]

乌烟瘴油气——俄乌冲突与骤然放大的能源安全角

This excerpt from a lengthy news report on the global energy situation focuses on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on China’s energy supply concerns and concludes that China needs to diversify its energy supply sources to ensure energy security.


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Determined China

坚定的中国

Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from Asia, the global energy market is unitary in nature. In international markets, prices for primary energy—coal, oil and natural gas—are all soaring, requiring the use of similar thinking to that used to respond to energy security crises in order to deal with the current situation. Giving due consideration to both economic growth and emissions reduction is the only option for China’s energy strategy.

俄乌冲突虽然远离亚洲,但全球能源市场是一体的。国际市场一次能源煤炭、石油、天然气价格齐齐飙升,这需要用类似应对能源安全危机的思维来处理当前的情况。兼顾经济增长和减排力度是我国在能源战略上的不二选择。

Will soaring international oil prices affect China, a major oil and gas consumer?

国际油价飙涨,会不会影响堪称油气消费大国的中国?

On March 7, Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, answered this at a press conference held at the State Council Information Office: given that a relatively high proportion of China’s crude oil and natural gas is extracted abroad, it will be affected, and the cost of imports will see something of an objective rise, but overall the impact is manageable.

3月7日,国家发展改革委副主任连维良在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上作了回答:由于中国原油、天然气外采比例较高,会受到影响,进口成本客观上会有所抬升,但总体上看影响是可控的。

This answer is rooted in facts.

这个回答是实事求是的。

Data released by the National Energy Administration show that in 2021, China’s crude oil imports were 513 million tons, and although this is a decline of 5.3 percent year-on-year, a first-ever decline, the external dependency ratio was still as high as 72 percent. As for external dependency in natural gas, data for 2021 are not yet available, but natural gas imports in 2020 amounted to 136.5 billion cubic meters, with a high external dependency ratio of 42 percent.

国家能源局公布的数据显示,2021年,中国原油进口量为5.13亿吨,虽然同比下降5.3%,首次出现下降,但对外依存度仍然高达72%。天然气对外依存度,2021年的数据还没出来,但2020年天然气进口量达1365亿立方米,对外依存度高达42%。

A high degree of external dependency means that to a great degree supply and consumption will be influenced when there are changes in international market conditions. It is precisely in this sense that the tight international oil and gas supply and price spikes have an impact on China. However, this impact is still under control.

对外依存度高,意味着供应与消费很大程度受国际市场行情变化的影响大。正是从这个意义上讲,国际油气供应紧张、价格暴涨,对我们国家有影响。但是,这个影响仍在可控范围。

On March 8, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China and Russia would continue to carry out normal trade cooperation, including in the field of oil and gas, which eased domestic worries about energy security somewhat. Previously, during Putin’s visit to China for the Winter Olympics, Chinese and Russian authorities and enterprises signed a series of cooperation documents, which included the China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom Agreement on the Purchase and Sale of Far Eastern Gas and the Supplementary Agreement 3 on the ‘Contract for the Purchase and Sale of Crude Oil to Secure Oil Supply to Refineries in Western China‘ and others. Gazprom issued an announcement on February 4 stating that after the Russian-Chinese Eastern Gas Pipeline is commissioned, Gazprom’s annual pipeline gas supply to China will increase by 10 billion cubic meters, which, together with the “Power of Siberia” pipeline, will bring the total annual gas supply to China up to 48 billion cubic meters. The continued deepening of energy cooperation between Russia and China will provide an important guarantee for China to achieve its “dual carbon” [peak carbon and carbon neutrality] goals.

3月8日,中国外交部表示,中俄两国将继续开展包括油气领域在内的正常贸易合作,这让国内对于能源安全的忧虑消减几分。此前,普京在冬奥访华期间,中俄有关部门和企业签署了一系列合作文件,其中包括《中国石油天然气集团有限公司与俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司远东天然气购销协议》《〈保障中国西部炼厂供油的原油购销合同〉补充协议3》等。俄气公司2月4日发布公告称,中俄东线天然气管道投产供气后,俄气每年输往中国的管道天然气供应量将增加100亿立方米,加上“西伯利亚力量”管道的输气量,届时对华供气总量将达到每年480亿立方米。中俄持续深化能源合作,将为我国实现“双碳”目标提供重要保障。

Regarding natural gas, given that about half of domestic gas prices are managed at the gate station, that part of gas prices does not change with the international market. At the same time, for a high percentage of China’s imported gas sources, the links to oil prices are by long-term agreements, with relatively stable prices and weak pass-through effects. Only a small portion of LNG prices purchased on the spot market follows the market, and in contrast to Europe, China’s LNG prices fluctuate significantly less than the international market due to the stabilizing anchor effect of managing gas prices at the gate station. During the 97% price surge in Japan and South Korea early last year and the 165% surge in Europe in December, China’s LNG prices rose only by 6.6% and 34%, respectively.

关于天然气方面,鉴于国内约一半的天然气实行门站价格管理,这部分气价不会随国际市场变化。同时,我国进口气源里,与油价挂钩的长协比例较高,价格相对稳定,传递效应较弱。只有少部分从现货市场采购的LNG价格随行就市,但和欧洲相比,受益于门站管理气价的稳定锚作用,我国LNG价格波动幅度明显低于国际市场。去年初日韩天然气大涨97%及12月欧洲天然气大涨165%期间,我国LNG价格涨幅仅分别为6.6%和34%。

But in the case of refined oil prices, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, domestic refined oil prices have also risen with international crude oil prices. On March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline prices of 750 yuan per ton, and an increase in diesel prices of 720 yuan per ton. Translated into liter prices, No. 92 gasoline increased by 0.58 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline increased by 0.62 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel increased by 0.61 yuan per liter. On March 31, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a further news release, stating that as of midnight, March 31, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were being raised by 110 yuan per ton. Translated into liters, the prices of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel were all raised by 0.09 yuan per liter. This was the “seventh consecutive increase” in gasoline prices since December 31 last year.

但在成品油价格方面,俄乌冲突后,国内成品油价格也随着国际原油价格水涨船高。3月17日,国家发展改革委宣布:国内汽油价格上调750元/吨、柴油价格上调720元/吨。折合升价:92号汽油上调0.58元/升、95号汽油上调0.62元/升、0号柴油上调0.61元/升。3月31日,国家发展改革委再次发布消息,自3月31日24时起,国内汽、柴油价格每吨均提高110元。折合升价,92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油价格均上调0.09元/升。这是自去年12月31日以来油价“七连涨”。

The chain reaction triggered by rising oil prices continues to unfold. For consumers, every rise and fall in oil prices is a matter of vital interest. For China, high oil prices are a further warning of the importance of diversifying energy supplies for energy security.

油价上涨引发的连锁反应正在持续发酵。对消费者来说,油价的每一次涨跌都关乎切身利益;对我国而言,高油价进一步警示能源供给多样化对能源安全的重要性。

In fact, there were already some early signs in previously released policies. The State Council General Office issued the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021–2035), and in it proposed achieving a 20% share of new energy vehicle sales by 2025, and stressed the construction of new energy vehicle charging piles to support this.

之前发布的政策中其实早有端倪,国务院办公厅印发《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035)》,就提出了2025年要实现新能源汽车销售占比达到20%,并且强调了新能源汽车的充电桩建设予以支持。

At present, China’s new energy vehicles are developing rapidly. In 2009, China’s new energy vehicle production was less than 300 units, but in 2021, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 3.5 million units.

当下,我国新能源汽车发展态势迅猛。2009年中国新能源汽车产量不足300辆,而到了2021年,我国新能源汽车产销双双突破350万辆。

According to a recent set of data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2022, vehicle production was at 4.27 million, representing an 11% year-on-year increase in production; new energy vehicle production stood at 810,000, an increase of 151%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19%. Such high growth also proves that the future development potential of new energy vehicles cannot be underestimated.

根据最近国家统计局一组数据来看,2022年1-2月汽车生产427万辆,产量同比增长11%,新能源汽车生产81万辆,增长151%,新能源汽车渗透率19%,如此的高增长也证明了新能源汽车的未来发展潜力不容小觑。

Aside from the new energy vehicle sector, more and more Chinese enterprises, including those in the solar energy and wind power sectors, are also playing an increasingly important role in the development of new energy in Europe and even worldwide.

除了在新能源汽车领域,越来越多包括太阳能、风电领域的中国企业也在欧洲乃至全球新能源发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色。

China’s renewable energy industry development, of which photovoltaics is representative, is already out there ranking among the first in the world.

以光伏为代表的中国可再生能源产业发展就已经走在全球前列。

At present, all of the links in the manufacturing end of the global photovoltaic industry are concentrated in China. China’s production capacity of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, respectively, account for 69%, 93%, 77% and 69% of global totals. In 2020, China’s total exports of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules) amounted to about $19.75 billion, of which module exports accounted for $16.99 billion, with export volume of about 78.8 GW, up 18% year-on-year and a record high.

目前全球光伏产业制造端各环节均正在向中国集中,中国多晶硅、硅片、电池片、组件产能分别占全球的69%、93%、77%和69%。2020年,中国光伏产品(硅片、电池片、组件)出口总额约197.5亿美元,其中,组件出口额为169.9亿美元,出口量约78.8吉瓦,同比增长18%,创历史新高。

“Energy must be grasped in our own hands.” This is the future direction of China’s energy strategy, and is also an inevitable requirement of today’s increasingly unpredictable world situation. The national energy development strategy puts special emphasis on: stepping up the clean and efficient use of coal, with orderly reduction and substitution, giving impetus to coal-based power generation upgrades which save energy and reduce carbon, increase flexibility, and improve heating supply, and promoting the construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases; during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, ushering leapfrog development in China’s wind power, solar power, and other types renewable energy, and basically completing the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system. At the same time, we will vigorously promote a “seven-year action plan” to increase storage and production in the oil and gas industry, to ensure the equivalent of 200 million tons of oil.

“能源要掌握在自己手里。”这是我国能源战略的未来走向,更是当下越来越不可预测的世界局势的必然要求。国家能源的发展战略强调指出:加大对煤炭的清洁高效利用,有序减量替代,推动煤电节能降碳改造、灵活性改造、供热改造,推进大型风光电基地建设;“十四五”期间,中国的风电、光伏等可再生能源迎来跨越式发展,基本上完成构建清洁低碳、安全高效的新能源体系。与此同时,大力推动油气行业增储上产“七年行动计划”,保住2亿吨石油当量。

The Chinese government has also proposed that the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach 25 percent by 2030, and installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts. Expectations within the industry are more aggressive, suggesting this will reach 1.7 billion kilowatts or more by 2030.

我国政府也提出,到2030年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到25%,风电、光伏发电装机达到12亿千瓦以上。行业内的预期更为激进,认为2030年将达到17亿千瓦以上。

Since the wave of power restrictions in the fourth quarter of 2021, China has continued to set the tone for the “dual carbon” goals: requiring that [work toward their achievement] must be based on national conditions and hold tightly onto the energy rice bowl; uphold the principles of steady progress and gradual realization; and refrain from becoming detached from reality and from engaging in a ‘carbon rush’ or in campaign-style “carbon reduction.”

自2021年四季度限电潮以来,我国持续为“双碳”定调:要求必须立足国情,端牢能源饭碗;坚持稳中求进、逐步实现;不脱离实际,不搞“碳冲锋”、运动式“减碳”。

The 2022 Government Work Report makes clear that “energy consumption intensity targets shall be assessed in a coordinated manner during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and room will be left for appropriate flexibility, and new renewable energy and raw material energy use will not be included in controls on total energy consumption.” At the same time [it stated that government will] “give impetus to a transition from ‘dual control’ of energy consumption to ‘dual control’ of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity.” The view in the industry is that this reflects the central government’s balancing of economic growth and emissions reduction efforts.

2022年政府工作报告明确,“能耗强度目标在‘十四五’规划内统筹考核,并留有适当弹性,新增可再生能源和原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制”,同时“推动能耗‘双控’向碳排放总量和强度‘双控’转变”。业内认为,这体现了中央对于经济增长和减排力度的兼顾。

The “two-wheel” new energy and fossil energy approach has been laid out, with peak [carbon] in 2035 at 200 million tons of oil and gas equivalent. This is China’s bottom line on energy.

新能源与化石能源双轮齐下,2035达峰,2亿吨油气当量。这是中国能源的底线。

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Cite This Page

高凡婷 (Gao Fanting) (2022). "In an Oil and Gas Fumed Atmosphere ——The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Suddenly Magnified Energy Security Perspective [Excerpt] [乌烟瘴油气——俄乌冲突与骤然放大的能源安全角]". Interpret: China, Original work published April 1, 2022, https://interpret.csis.org/translations/in-an-oil-and-gas-fumed-atmosphere-the-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-the-suddenly-magnified-energy-security-perspective-excerpt/

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