Library
Title | Published | Uploaded | Source | Author | Media Type | Category | Tags | Related Analysis |
---|
Decoding the Impact of External Demand under the Tariff Storm
解码关税风暴下的外需冲击
Days after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, Guan Tao, the global chief economist at BOCI China, assesses the impacts of the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. He compares this round of tariffs with the earlier tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term, concluding that their impacts on China this year may be similar to those of 2019. However, Guan views the external environment as increasingly suppressive and unpredictable, arguing that it will force China to “focus on doing its own things well” and spur domestic reforms spanning its development pattern, trade model, and macroeconomic policy priorities. Guan expects U.S.-China economic and trade relations to worsen but is confident these domestic adjustments will enable China to weather the “tariff storm.” |
Guan Tao 管涛 | |||||||
The Impact of the New Trump Administration's Policies on China's Economy and Trade
新一届特朗普政府施政主张对我国经贸的影响
Three Chinese state-affiliated researchers Jiang Zhao, Dong Chao, and Fu Jiang assess the impact of Trump 2.0 on the global economy and U.S.-China trade relations. They foresee Trump’s policies as harmful to multilateral economic cooperation, but they believe the impact on China will be limited. They also propose a slate of countermeasures for Beijing, which include further diversifying export markets and trade cooperation with emerging economies, optimizing China’s ability to attract foreign investment, accelerating RMB internationalization, and “telling China’s economic development story well” to influence global public opinion. |
Dong Chao 董超, Fu Jiang 付江, Jiang Zhao 姜照 | |||||||
Deepening Cross-Military Reform
深化跨军地改革
Commentator Zhong Xin’s analysis of PLA reform situates national defense within the overall framework of economic and social development. The piece argues that China needs to continue building an integrated national strategy system, especially focusing on defense-industrial production and S&T upgrading. |
Zhong Xin 钟新 | |||||||
Eradicate the Breeding Ground and Conditions for Corruption
着力铲除腐败滋生的土壤和条件
Zhang Fuhai, a member of the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection, provides an overview of the Party-state’s recent anti-corruption work and outlines strategies to continue countering graft. Emphasizing that the Party has won an “overwhelming victory” against corruption under Xi Jinping’s leadership, Zhang suggests that the next steps will be implementing systemic dis-incentives, maintaining high pressures against misconduct, strengthening investigations, and cultivating a culture of integrity. |
Zhang Fuhai 张福海 | |||||||
On China's High-level Opening Up to the Outside in the Context of Major Changes Unseen in a Century
论百年未有之大变局下的中国高水平对外开放
Yang Guoliang, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing, frames U.S. pursuit of strategic competition with China as a reemergence of Western imperialism. He suggests the relative shift in economic power away from the West in past decades, toward the rest of the world, has led Washington to characterize globalization as “out-of-control” and introduce its own set of restrictions on international commercial engagement. While reiterating the need for continued reform and opening up, he underscores the need for China to set its own limits on commercial openness — particularly in the realm of inbound foreign investment from the West — in order to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests. |
Yang Guoliang 杨国亮 | |||||||
Analysis of the Impact of Trump’s Return on China’s Trade
特朗普回归对中国贸易冲击辨析
In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a top economist at the Bank of China Securities unpacks the potential trade impacts of a second Trump administration on China. He argues that Trump 2.0 may not be universally unfavorable from Beijing’s perspective, given he is entering his second term more focused on domestic issues and China currently maintains a lower trade deficit with the United States than other countries. Though he suggests Trump 2.0 could be less volatile than Trump 1.0, Guan cautions that Beijing still needs to prepare for U.S.-China trade relations to worsen and views domestic reforms and economic performance improvements as key to strengthening China’s position. |
Guan Tao 管涛 | |||||||
Preparing for the Worst, How China Should Respond to Extreme Tariff Policies
做最坏的打算,中国如何应对极端关税政策?
Three Chinese economists from JD.com lay out potential impacts of tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to impose on China, arguing that U.S. domestic concerns will most likely reduce the duration and magnitude of such measures, thereby minimizing their impacts on the Chinese economy. They argue that regardless of the scale of Trump’s trade actions, Beijing should seek to bolster its national strength through proactive international trade integration with other countries. |
Fan Lei 樊磊, Jiang Chuanyue 姜传钺, Shen Jianguang 沈建光 | |||||||
China's Foreign Trade under the New Pattern of Development: New characteristics, new advantages, and new considerations
新发展格局下中国对外贸易新特点、新优势和新思考
Chinese researchers Sun Xuguang and Zhu Caihua explore the new paradigms of China’s trade as it responds to its industrial upgrading and domestic circumstances. They argue that as China seeks to become a manufacturing superpower, it has come to compete directly with developed countries in advanced manufacturing fields, engendering trade frictions with them. In the case of the United States and Europe, China’s changing trade patterns that now prioritize integrating domestic technology have in the authors’ view threatened to break up the Western high-tech monopoly and inevitably faced pushback. |
Sun Xuguang 孙旭光, Zhu Caihua 竺彩华 | |||||||
Characteristics, Motivations, and Challenges in the Transformation of China–Latin America Relations
中国和拉美关系转型的特征、动因与挑战
In this article, Renmin University scholar Cui Shoujun assesses the drivers of evolving China-Latin America relations and identifies tailwinds and headwinds for this relationship down the road. He identifies 2015 as a transformative year in this relationship, marked by the establishment of the China-CELAC forum and more strategic regional engagement by China in the following years. He suggests that going forward, Beijing will need to appreciate diversity among regional capitals, encourage broader and more even Chinese commercial engagement across Latin American countries, and navigate U.S. intentions and anxieties about PRC presence in Latin America in seeking to develop ties with the region. |
Cui Shoujun 崔守军 | |||||||
China and Latin America’s Joint Construction of the Belt and Road: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects
中国与拉美共建“⼀带⼀路”:进展、挑战及前景展望
Lou Yu, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), traces opportunities and challenges for continued development of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and broader regional engagement in Latin America. Lou is relatively sober on prospects for bilateral ties, pointing to the geopolitical situation in Latin America (specifically, growing U.S. and European interests in the region), substantial crime rates and associated security challenges to Chinese investment, and political instability in many Latin American countries. Nevertheless, Lou suggests that political trends in the region – including a resurgence of left-leaning governments – may result in greater openness to BRI engagement going forward. |
Lou Yu 楼宇 |