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A Review of U.S.-USSR Confidence-Building Measures During the Cold War
冷战时期美苏建立信任措施实践述评

Ge Jun, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer and researcher, argues that as U.S.-China tensions worsen, Beijing should pursue confidence-building measures (CBMs) with the United States to improve its security environment. Ge draws on CBMs conducted by the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War to suggest how the effectiveness of such efforts can be maximized, highlighting the importance of private communication channels, ensuring concessions are roughly equivalent, and first exploring other areas of cooperation to build up strategic trust.

Ge Jun 葛君
Russia's Diplomatic Dilemmas and “Bright Spots” Pertaining to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
俄乌冲突下俄罗斯外交的困境与“亮点”

Feng Yujun, a senior Russia expert at Fudan University, argues that while Russia’s relations with the West have deteriorated precipitously since its invasion of Ukraine, China-Russia ties have been characterized by regular diplomatic contact, increased trade, and alignment in international organizations. Feng argues that strong and stable ties with China are increasingly critical for Russia as its international status and influence decline.

Feng Yujun 冯玉军
Xi Jinping Emphasizes the Effective Strengthening of Basic Research and the Consolidation of the Foundation of Self-Reliance and Self-Improvement in S&T During the Third Collective Study Session of the Politburo of the CCP Central Committee
习近平在中共中央政治局第三次集体学习时强调 切实加强基础研究 夯实科技自立自强根基

The CCP Politburo holds “study sessions” on a semi-regular basis, in which an outside academic or government expert leads a discussion on a selected topic. Such sessions are important signals as to what issues the senior leadership finds important. The third study session of the 20th Central Committee Politburo was held on February 21, 2023 and was presided over by Xi Jinping. The session focused on themes related to China’s bid for technological self-reliance and emphasized the need to strengthen basic scientific research.

Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee 中共中央政治局
Adjustments in U.S. Arms Sales Policy toward Taiwan: Characteristics, Trends, and Implications
美国对台军售政策调整:特点、趋向与影响

Wang Shushen, an expert in U.S.-Taiwan relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argues that shifts in the level and nature of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that began under the Trump administration are forcing Beijing to deploy its own set of deterrence measures. These dynamics, Wang argues, will make it difficult to prevent and control a crisis in and around the Taiwan Strait in the future.

Wang Shushen 汪曙申
U.S. Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy toward China and China's Response
美国对华威慑与胁迫及中国应对

In this 2016 analysis, Zhang Wenzong, an expert at a state security-backed think tank, argues that Beijing must bolster its ability to withstand and counter U.S. deterrence strategy by strengthening its own economic and military resilience, overseas strategic partnerships, and domestic stability.

Zhang Wenzong 张文宗
The Modern Transformation and Deterrence Role of China's Sea Power Strategy
中国海权战略的当代转型与威慑作用

In this 2012 article, senior military scholar Ni Lexiong analyzes the historical course of China’s military modernization efforts, and argues that Beijing should invest in a strong blue-water navy to secure its expanding overseas economic interests and deter the formation of a U.S.-led maritime alliance designed to contain China. Ni also cautions that China should approach this process carefully, in order to avoid triggering security concerns among its maritime neighbors that could provoke to a regional arms race.

Ni Lexiong 倪乐雄
The Path, Motivation and Future Trend of Japan’s Taiwan-Related Policy Adjustment
日本涉台政策调整的路径、动因及未来走向

Wen Tianpeng and Chen Xing, Taiwan scholars at Nanjing University and Beijing Union University, respectively, explore the motivations behind what they perceive as a reorientation of Japan’s strategy vis-à-vis Taiwan and implications for Japan-China relations going forward. In their view, the dynamics of U.S.-Japan-China ties are driving Tokyo to depart from its traditionally “low profile” position on Taiwan. However, Wen and Chen argue that Japan’s strong economic ties to China will ultimately prevent it from revising its official “One China” policy.

Chen Xing 陈星, Wen Tianpeng 温天鹏
Xi Jinping Emphasizes the Need to Accelerate the Construction of the New Development Pattern and Enhance the Security Initiative in Development During the Second Collective Study Session of the Politburo of the CCP Central Committee
习近平在中共中央政治局第二次集体学习时强调 加快构建新发展格局 增强发展的安全性主动权

The CCP Politburo holds “study sessions” on a semi-regular basis, in which an outside academic or government expert leads a discussion on a selected topic. Such sessions are important signals as to what issues the senior leadership finds important. The second study session of the 20th Central Committee Politburo was held on January 31, 2023, and was presided over by Xi Jinping. The session focused on themes related to China’s economic development, such as dual circulation, economic security and self-reliance, and rural-urban divides.

Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee 中共中央政治局
A Multi-Perspective Analysis of the Japanese Factor in the Taiwan Issue
多视角下台湾问题中的日本因素解析

Xiu Chunping, a Taiwan scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argues that China-Japan relations will deteriorate in the foreseeable future as a result of Tokyo’s growing interest in regional security, particularly in and around the Taiwan Strait. She argues that Japan is increasingly willing to provide greater and more explicit economic, diplomatic, and military support for Taiwan, and draws on a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, and domestic political factors to explain this perceived shift – including Japan’s colonial legacy in Taiwan, power shifts between Japan and China, and the work of “Taiwan independence forces.”

Xiu Chunping 修春萍
The “Rally Round the Flag” Effect in Sino-Japanese Conflicts: Characteristics and Effects of Japan’s Involvement in the Taiwan Issue
中日矛盾中的“聚旗效应”:日本介入台湾问题的特征及影响

Cai Liang, a researcher focused on regional issues in Asia at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, argues that Japan is no longer maintaining purely unofficial relations with Taiwan that center around trade, investment, and cultural exchange. This is evident, Cai holds, in what he sees as Tokyo’s efforts to internationalize discussion of Taiwan and emphasize shared values. Cai attributes this perceived change largely to the dynamics of rising strategic competition between the United States and China.

Cai Liang 蔡亮