In this transcript of a keynote speech given by Ding Xiaoxing, the director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), he outlines the major trends and features of the war in Ukraine two years on. He highlights the emergence of commercial technology on the battlefield and the high human and financial costs of the war, and argues that continued U.S. aid to Ukraine will be a decisive variable impacting the war’s future dynamics.

This report, written by a group of scholars at the Renmin University Chaoyang Institute for Financial Studies led by Wang Wen, the institute’s president, takes stock of Russia’s war in Ukraine at its second anniversary. The chapters delve into geopolitical, economic, financial, and military dimensions of the war, and draw conclusions for China. They recommend Beijing strengthen technology self-reliance, enhance the security of its energy supplies, improve its diplomatic narratives, and take a more active role in global economic standards-setting.

Feng Yujun, a leading scholar of China-Russia relations, outlines Russia’s evolving geopolitical posture and outlook two years into its war in Ukraine. Feng explores how Russia is adapting diplomatically and economically to war-induced isolation from West, including by expanding its relations with the Global South. Moscow’s relations with Beijing remain strong, Feng argues, although framings of the partnership as “limitless” have ceded from official Chinese discourse.

This piece from two Russia scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is a part of the 2024 version of an annual volume on international politics published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. The authors explore factors influencing the dynamics and future of the war in Ukraine two years in. They argue that political factors (such as 2024 elections in the United States and Europe, and Putin’s growing preoccupation with regime security) will shape the intensity of the war, while economic factors will influence its duration.

Zhang Jie, a prominent scholar at the Xi’an International Studies University, suggests India’s intensified engagement with Global South aims to amplify New Delhi’s voice in global governance, compete with China for geopolitical influence, and deepen ties with Washington. Zhang suggests other Global South countries are unlikely to be receptive to this engagement, given their inherent suspicion of India’s growing ties with the West and fear of friction with China.

In this interview, Xu Poling, a Russia expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, reflects on lessons learned from recent research trips to the country. He seeks to explain Russia’s relative resilience in the face of sanctions, concluding several factors are at work – the quick imposition of strict outbound capital controls, forced sales of foreign currency to increase central bank holdings, insistence on selling gas to Europe in rubles, and de-dollarization efforts since 2014.

This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.

This article was written during the consultation period for new national security legislation through Article 23 of Hong Kong’s Basic Law. Shao Shanbo, previous head of the former Hong Kong Central Policy Unit (a government think tank advising the Chief Executive that was revamped under a new name in 2018), addresses criticism voiced within Hong Kong and by external observers over the bill’s potential breadth. Prominently, he argues that terms such as “incitement” are not vague because they have been clarified by legal precedents within the city’s common law system.

Jie Dalei, an expert on Taiwan and U.S.-China relations, analyzes the results of the 2024 elections in Taiwan in this piece published by the Institute of International and Strategic Studies. He seeks to explain the failure of the Kuomintang (KMT) to secure the presidency, considers the future of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and assesses implications of the president-elect Lai Ching-te administration for cross-Strait and U.S.-China relations.

The CCP Politburo holds “collective study sessions” on a semi-regular basis, in which an outside academic or government expert leads a discussion on a selected topic. Such sessions are important signals as to what issues the senior leadership finds important. The 12th collective study session of the 20th Central Committee Politburo was held on February 29, 2024 and was presided over by Xi Jinping. At this session, Xi delivered a speech emphasizing the need to improve China’s energy security through the development and deployment of clean energy technologies. These efforts will enable China, Xi posits, to achieve sustainable growth at home and become a leader in combating climate change globally.