Translation Category: Economics
Yang Guoliang, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing, frames U.S. pursuit of strategic competition with China as a reemergence of Western imperialism. He suggests the relative shift in economic power away from the West in past decades, toward the rest of the world, has led Washington to characterize globalization as “out-of-control” and introduce its own set of restrictions on international commercial engagement. While reiterating the need for continued reform and opening up, he underscores the need for China to set its own limits on commercial openness — particularly in the realm of inbound foreign investment from the West — in order to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests.
In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a top economist at the Bank of China Securities unpacks the potential trade impacts of a second Trump administration on China. He argues that Trump 2.0 may not be universally unfavorable from Beijing’s perspective, given he is entering his second term more focused on domestic issues and China currently maintains a lower trade deficit with the United States than other countries. Though he suggests Trump 2.0 could be less volatile than Trump 1.0, Guan cautions that Beijing still needs to prepare for U.S.-China trade relations to worsen and views domestic reforms and economic performance improvements as key to strengthening China’s position.
Three Chinese economists from JD.com lay out potential impacts of tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to impose on China, arguing that U.S. domestic concerns will most likely reduce the duration and magnitude of such measures, thereby minimizing their impacts on the Chinese economy. They argue that regardless of the scale of Trump’s trade actions, Beijing should seek to bolster its national strength through proactive international trade integration with other countries.
Chinese researchers Sun Xuguang and Zhu Caihua explore the new paradigms of China’s trade as it responds to its industrial upgrading and domestic circumstances. They argue that as China seeks to become a manufacturing superpower, it has come to compete directly with developed countries in advanced manufacturing fields, engendering trade frictions with them. In the case of the United States and Europe, China’s changing trade patterns that now prioritize integrating domestic technology have in the authors’ view threatened to break up the Western high-tech monopoly and inevitably faced pushback.
In this January 2024 interview, head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Jin Zhuanglong outlines China’s strategy for “new industrialization.” Jin emphasizes the importance of upgrading advanced manufacturing through integration of cutting-edge technologies, consolidating China’s leadership in emerging strategic sectors in which it has an advantage, and supporting small firms that might be benefited by application of AI and other technologies in their production methods.
This lengthy piece outlines the underlying logic behind China’s new industrial upgrading policy, dubbed “new industrialization.” Jin Zhuanglong, head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, lays out what he sees as key accomplishments and challenges for China’s industrial system going forward. Jin details steps Beijing will undertake to advance the manufacturing sector, emphasizing the need to better integrate and synergize technology innovation, digitalization, and industrial upgrading.
Guo Kai, the executive president of CF40, a think tank focusing on finance and economic issues, argues that the problem of overcapacity is being used in the U.S. to drive election politics, rather than being viewed purely as an economic concern. Domestically, he attributes overcapacity as a negative externality to China’s rapid manufacturing growth, and makes several policy recommendations to address the issue.
This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.
In this lengthy article, a BRI researcher at China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank, outlines perceived challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative around its 10th anniversary. These include geopolitical risks from competition with the United States, political and financial instability within partner countries, weak economic growth, and ill-defined goals and poor marketing. The author recommends Beijing improve risk monitoring and project oversight to manage financial and economic risks, and improve the BRI’s reputation across the globe by deepening diplomatic cooperation with a wide array of countries.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.