Translation Category: Economics
This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.
In this lengthy article, a BRI researcher at China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank, outlines perceived challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative around its 10th anniversary. These include geopolitical risks from competition with the United States, political and financial instability within partner countries, weak economic growth, and ill-defined goals and poor marketing. The author recommends Beijing improve risk monitoring and project oversight to manage financial and economic risks, and improve the BRI’s reputation across the globe by deepening diplomatic cooperation with a wide array of countries.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.
Yao Yang, a leading economist at Peking University, argues pessimistic assessments of China’s growth trajectory underestimate strengths of the Chinese economy. These strengths, in Yao’s view, include China’s technological prowess, especially in clean energy products of the future such as EVs and solar panels, and its scale and cost advantages in manufacturing. Yao argues that Western efforts to “derisk” may impinge on China’s technological development temporarily, but will come at higher costs for the United States and its partners, given the funds required to reshore manufacturing and the projected revenue losses of selling key technology products to China.
Scholars at Guizhou University and Renmin University see the availability, quality, and productivity of arable land in China under pressure, and outline steps Beijing should take to increase agricultural production and reduce food waste. Among other approaches, they recommend Beijing encourage greater investment in food storage and transportation R&D, shape consumption patterns, and improve the application of innovative technologies to the sector.
Experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences argue China’s domestic supply of agricultural commodities is insufficient and import sources are too geographically concentrated. In great detail, the authors advance recommendations to make China’s food supply more resilient, secure, and green. Among other suggestions, they advocate improving the application of advanced technology to the farming sector, reconciling geographical gaps between concentration of inputs (such as water) and farmland, diversifying sourcing toward countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and improving waste utilization.
Scholars from Renmin University argue that China is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks and rising prices for agricultural commodities triggered by the Ukraine war. A volatile and challenging geopolitical outlook, the authors suggest, represents a long-term risk for China’s food security. The authors call on Beijing to diversify sourcing of China’s food supply (including away from the United States) by encouraging greater Chinese investment in the Russian agricultural sector and pursuing trade agreements with a wider range of partners.
Experts from China Agricultural University argue the war in Ukraine will have long-term impacts on food supply chains and the global economy, causing many states to improve agricultural self-sufficiency, hoard supplies, and restrict exports. In this environment, the scholars suggest Beijing reduce its vulnerability to Western sanctions and enhance its influence over international food supply chains by encouraging Chinese agricultural conglomerates to develop a larger international presence and by better regulating and supporting agricultural production and innovation at home.
Cai Fang, a top Chinese economist, argues that China’s low fertility rate can be remedied with the right set of policy solutions. Cai recommends Beijing focus on policies that improve socio-economic development levels and promote gender equality, diagnosing these factors as key constraints on decisions around childbirth.
Lu Feng, a Peking University professor, argues a closed-loop domestic integrated circuit (IC) supply chain is urgently needed in the face of U.S. and allied technology controls. He suggests Beijing advance this goal by encouraging Chinese enterprises in the field to buy from and sell to each other – decisions that, Lu argues, will be made easier by U.S. technology controls. Lu also suggests China play to its strengths and use its expansive market as a source of leverage to influence the scope of such controls.