In the context of the two major circumstances—the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the great changes unseen in the world for a century—accelerating the construction of the new pattern of development, which takes domestic great circulation as the mainstay and in which the domestic and international circulations are mutually reinforcing, is a major strategic decision made by China for the new stage, environment, and conditions of development. The proposal of this decision is directly related to changes in the international environment, and is also closely related to the structural adjustments and shifts in driving forces that have been continuously promoted in our country over the past decade. General Secretary Xi Jinping first proposed this new normal during an inspection tour in Henan in 2014. Viewed from the supply side, economic growth had shifted from being factor and investment-driven to being innovation-driven; and from the demand side, economic development had shifted from being investment and export-led to being (domestic market) consumption-led. That was actually the starting point of China’s officially announced construction of the new pattern of development. And to this day, the new pattern of development has been generating strong endogenous power. Phase one of the “Made in China 2025” action plan, officially released in 2015, was to “strive to enter the ranks of manufacturing superpowers in ten years.” This has been initially achieved, and China’s economic development resilience continues to grow. Examining the changes in a country’s foreign trade characteristics and advantages is the most direct and objective window for studying its industrial changes and economic development, and it can effectively verify the efficacy of the country’s economic development. Under the new pattern of development, China’s foreign trade is showing obvious new characteristics and advantages, while there are also some new issues that warrant in-depth consideration.
在中华民族伟大复兴的战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局这两个大局下, 加快构建以国内大循环为主体、 国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是我国在发展新阶段、 新环境、 新条件下作出的重大战略决策。 这一决策的提出, 既与国际环境变化直接相关, 也与我国近十年来持续推动的结构调整和动力转变有着密不可分的关系。 2014 年, 习近平总书记在河南考察时首次提出新常态。 从供给侧来看, 经济增长动力由要素和投资驱动向创新驱动转变; 从需求侧来看, 经济发展要从投资和出口主导转向消费( 即国内市场) 主导。 这其实就是我国从官方宣布开始构建新发展格局的起点。 时至今日, 新发展格局正在迸发出强大内生动力。 2015 年正式发布的“ 中国制造 2025” 行动纲领第一阶段“ 力争用十年时间, 迈入制造强国行列” 已初步实现, 我国经济发展韧性不断增强。 考察一国对外贸易特点和优势变迁, 是研究其产业变迁和经济发展最直接也最为客观的一个窗口, 可以有效验证其经济发展成效。 在新发展格局下, 中国外贸正呈现出明显的新特点和新优势, 同时也有一些新问题值得深入思考。
1. New characteristics: The driving logic of foreign trade have shifted from external drivers to domestic drivers
一、 新特点: 外贸驱动逻辑从外驱转向内驱
Looking at the changes in the relationship between China’s foreign trade development and the domestic and international circulation structure over the past decade or more, the most prominent feature is that the logic and circulation model driving foreign trade development have undergone fundamental changes. In the past, China’s foreign trade development was mainly driven by the international great circulation, that is, by “foreign (mainly U.S.) technology + global market (including the Chinese market)” drivers, and therefore had an externally driven nature. Today, on the other hand, China’s foreign trade is driven more by the domestic great circulation, that is, by “Chinese technology + the Chinese market” and “Chinese technology + the global market” drivers. Under the new international circulation model, the huge domestic market has become the “base” from which more and more Chinese companies (including foreign-funded enterprises) engage in global competition.1 Once Chinese technology dominates the super-large Chinese market, the cost performance and competitiveness of Chinese high-tech products will increase significantly, and there will be a shift to a “Chinese technology + global market” model. Therefore, the new circulation model has an obvious domestically driven nature. This change has prompted fundamental changes in China’s foreign trade dependence, trade competitiveness and autonomy, and trade relationships.
从过去十多年中国外贸发展与国内国际循环结构关系的变化来看, 最突出的特点就是驱动外贸发展的逻辑和循环模式发生了根本性变化。 过去, 中国外贸发展主要是由国际大循环驱动, 即由“ 外国 (主要是美国) 技术+全球市场( 包括中国市场)” 驱动, 因此具有外驱性。 而今天, 中国外贸更多由国内大循环驱动, 即由“ 中国技术+中国市场” 和“ 中国技术+世界市场” 驱动。 在国际循环新模式下, 国内大市场成为越来越多中国企业( 包括外资企业) 开展全球竞争的“ 基地” ①, 一旦中国技术占领超大规模的中国市场, 中国高科技产品的性价比和竞争力将大幅提升, 就会转变为“ 中国技术+世界市场” 模式。因此, 新循环模式具有明显的内驱性。 这一变化促使中国外贸依存度、 贸易竞争力和自主性、 贸易关系都出现了根本性变化。
(1) The domestic great circulation has pushed China’s foreign trade dependence back down to a relatively low level
(一) 国内大循环推动中国外贸依存度回落到相对低位
The international great circulation once played the important main role in China’s economic development. For a long time after the start of reform and opening-up, China was an economy with “three gaps.” First, there was a shortage of capital, which is what the American economist Hollis B. Chenery called a “double gap”—a shortage of savings and a shortage of foreign exchange; second, there was a shortage of technology; finally, there was a shortage of markets. The first two gaps led to a lack of domestic production capacity, and the third gap led to a lack of effective domestic demand. Reform and opening-up have solved the above three major gaps: The capital gap and foreign exchange shortage problems were solved through the introduction of large amounts of foreign capital, and the shortage of technology has also been solved to a large extent. Production capacity has been greatly enhanced, and China has ultimately become the world’s production base. Through large-scale exports, the problem of insufficient domestic consumption has been solved, and ultimately a development model of “high-volume imports and exports” has been formed. With China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, the world market further opened up to China, and the processing overseas trade with “both ends”—raw materials, and components and markets—entered an explosive growth period. Foreign trade expanded rapidly and economic development was clearly characterized by the dominance of the international great circulation. By 2006, China’s foreign trade dependence had reached its historical peak of 67%.
国际大循环曾经在中国经济发展中发挥了重要的主体作用。 在改革开放以来很长一段时间里, 中国是一个存在“ 三缺口” 的经济体。 首先, 缺资金,即美国经济学家钱纳里所言的“ 双缺口” ———储蓄和外汇缺口; 其次, 缺技术; 最后, 缺市场。 前两个缺口导致国内生产能力不足, 第三个缺口导致国内有效需求不足。 改革开放解决了上述三大缺口: 通过大量引进外资, 既解决了资金缺口和外汇短缺问题, 也在很大程度上解决了技术短缺问题, 生产能力得到大幅提升, 最终成为世界生产基地; 通过大量出口, 解决了国内消费不足的问题, 最终形成了 “ 大进大出” 发展模式。 随着 2001 年中国加入 WTO,世界市场进一步向中国开放, 原材料、 零部件和市场“ 两头在外” 的加工贸易进入爆发期, 外贸急剧扩张, 经济发展明显呈现以国际大循环为主体的特征。到 2006 年, 中国外贸依存度达到了 67% 的历史顶点。
However, the development model dominated by the international great circulation is not sustainable. First, there have been fundamental changes in the domestic economic fundamentals, especially the rapid rise in the cost of domestic factors (such as labor). Second, the “high-volume imports and exports” development model has not only led to unsustainable domestic resource and environmental consumption, but also to foreign trade maintaining extensive growth over a long period, adversely affecting the adjustment and optimization of the domestic industrial structure. Third, it has exacerbated the imbalance between domestic demand and external demand, leading to China’s over-reliance on external markets. Finally, trade frictions have intensified, especially with the country with the largest trade deficit, the United States. In 2000, the trade deficit with China accounted for 19% of the total U.S. trade deficit, exceeding the deficit with Japan for the first time, and China became the United States’ largest trade deficit source. By 2009, China accounted for nearly 45% of the U.S. trade deficit in goods. With China having replaced Japan as the United States’ main competitor in the economic and trade fields, China-U.S. economic and trade frictions have intensified. In addition, other economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, and India have also launched anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigations against China. China has become the world’s number one AD/CVD target country and the world’s number one country in terms of the proportion of AD/CVD final rulings. It was against this backdrop of “internal concerns and external pressures” that China’s economy began to accelerate transformation and upgrading.
但是, 以国际大循环为主的发展模式具有不可持续性。 首先, 国内经济基础条件发生根本性变化,尤其国内要素( 如劳动力) 成本快速上升。 其次, “ 大进大出” 的发展模式不仅让国内资源和环境消耗达到不可持续的地步, 也导致对外贸易长期处于粗放式增长, 影响国内产业结构的调整优化。 再次,加剧了内需与外需的不平衡, 导致中国经济过度依赖外部市场。 最后, 贸易摩擦加剧, 尤其与最大贸易逆差国———美国的摩擦加剧。 2000 年, 美对华货物贸易逆差占其总逆差的 19%, 首次超过对日逆差, 中国成为美国最大的逆差来源国; 到 2009 年,美国货物贸易逆差中近 45% 来自中国。 中国取代日本成为美国在经贸领域的主要竞争对手, 中美经贸摩擦加剧。 此外, 欧盟、 日本、 韩国、 巴西、 印度等其他经济体也不断对中国发起反倾销和反补贴调查, 中国成为世界头号“ 双反” 目标国, 遭到反倾销反补贴最终裁定的比例位居世界第一。 正是在这种 “ 内有隐忧、 外有压力” 的背景下, 中国经济开始加快转型升级。
The domestic great circulation has gradually developed and grown, and the dependence of Made in China on the international market has gradually declined. With sustained rapid growth of the economy and national income and accelerated growth of domestic production chains, China has gradually developed a super-large market advantage and the world’s most complete and largest industrial system. The endogenous driving force of the domestic great circulation continues to grow. On the production side, the domestic production and supply chain support systems are increasingly complete; on the market side, the domestic market’s consumption capacity for goods produced in China has continued to rise, leading to a gradual decline in Made in China’s dependence on the international market. This can be confirmed in two ways. On one hand, there has been a very asymmetric increase in China’s share of global manufacturing output value and its share of global manufacturing exports. According to World Bank statistics, from 2010 to 2022, China’s share of global manufacturing value added increased from 18.13% to 30%, a substantial rise of 11.87 percentage points. During the same period, according to statistics from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), China’s share of global goods exports increased from 10.31% to 14.42%, rising only 4.11 percentage points. On the other hand, China’s dependence on foreign trade has been declining as well. In 2006, China’s dependence on foreign trade reached a historical high of 67%, and has continued to decline since then; in 2023, it was 33.6%, lower than traditional manufacturing powers Germany (70.69%) and Japan (35.67%), and higher than the service-oriented United States (18.98%). In fact, as shown in Figure 1, China’s foreign trade dependence has basically fluctuated around 33% since it dropped to 32.8% in 2016. Its export dependence has basically fluctuated below 20% since it dropped to 18.7% in 2016, while China’s GDP in 2023 was more than three times that of 2010! The data on the above two dimensions fully demonstrate that a great many of China’s manufactured products are being consumed more and more by the domestic market, the main role played by the domestic great circulation continues to grow stronger, and the manufacturing industry’s dependence on external markets has been greatly reduced. The resilience of China’s economic and foreign trade development has been greatly enhanced.
国内大循环逐渐发展壮大, 中国制造对国际市场的依赖逐步下降。 随着经济和国民收入持续快速增长、 国内产业链加快成长, 我国逐渐形成了超大规模市场优势和全球最完整、 规模最大的工业体系,国内大循环的内生动力不断增强。 在生产端, 国内产业链供应链配套日益完善; 在市场端, 国内大市场对我国生产的产品的消纳能力不断上升, 导致中国制造对国际市场的依赖逐步下降, 这可以从两个方面得到证实。 一方面, 中国制造业产值的全球比重和制造业出口的全球份额出现极不对称的增长。根据世界银行统计, 2010—2022 年, 中国制造业增加值占全球的比重从 18. 13% 提升至 30%, 大幅提高了 11. 87 个百分点; 同期, 根据联合国贸发会统计, 中国货物出口占全球的比重从 10. 31% 提升至 14.42%, 仅提高了 4. 11 个百分点。 另一方面, 我国外贸依存度也不断下降。 2006 年, 我国外贸依存度达到历史最高点 67%, 随后持续下降; 2023 年为 33.6%, 低于传统制造强国德国(70. 69%) 和日本(35. 67%), 高于服务业主导的美国(18. 98%)。 事实上, 如图 1 所示, 中国外贸依存度自 2016 年降至 32.8%以来, 基本上就在 33% 上下波动; 出口依存度自 2016 年降至 18. 7%以来, 基本上都在 20%下方波动, 而中国 2023 年的 GDP 规模却是 2010 年的 3倍多! 以上两个维度的数据充分说明, 我国大量制造的产品已经更多被国内市场所消化, 国内大循环的主体作用在不断增强, 制造业对外部市场的依赖程度已大大降低。 中国经济和外贸发展韧性得到大幅提升。



(2) The dual domestic and international circulations are helping China go from a major goods trading nation to a trade superpower
(二) 国内国际双循环助力中国从货物贸易大国走向强国
When it was driven by the international great circulation, China’s foreign trade could be said to have been big but not strong. According to World Bank statistics, China surpassed United States in manufacturing added value for the first time in 2010, accounting for 18.12% of the world’s manufacturing added value, and deservedly becoming a world manufacturing power. At that time, however, China’s manufacturing industry was still dominated by low-tech, low value-added products, and the “one billion pairs of socks in exchange for an airplane” became a sore point for the Chinese people. At the same time, the development environment for China’s manufacturing industry faced attack from two sides: In front were the market and technological lead advantages of developed countries in Europe and the United States and their hegemonic suppression, and behind were the cost advantages of latecomers such as Vietnam and India, who were catching up fast. Therefore, in order to overcome the “middle-income trap,” China could only choose to become a manufacturing superpower, that is, to compete directly with developed countries in high-end manufacturing fields. This is precisely the current context of the United States and its allies curbing China’s technological and industrial development. China must rely on the domestic great circulation to stabilize its domestic economic fundamentals, while using the international circulation to raise the efficiency and level of the domestic great circulation, thereby achieving a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between the two circulations. With the continuous rising level of opening-up to the outside, China’s imports and exports have both formed mutually reinforcing linkage effects with the domestic great circulation. The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry has accelerated across the board, and trade competitiveness and independence have been comprehensively enhanced. The dream of becoming a trade superpower is becoming a reality.
在国际大循环推动下的中国外贸可谓大而不强。根据世界银行统计, 2010 年中国制造业增加值首次超过美国, 占世界制造业增加值的比重达 18. 12%,当之无愧成为世界制造大国。 但彼时中国制造业仍以低技术、 低附加值产品为主, “ 10 亿双袜子换一架飞机” 成为国人痛点。 同时, 我国制造业发展环境还面临着双面夹击: 前有欧美发达国家的市场和科技领先优势及其霸权压制, 后有越南、 印度等后来者的成本优势紧赶直追。 因此, 要跨越“ 中等收入陷阱”, 中国只能选择成为制造强国, 即在高端制造业领域与发达国家直接竞争, 这也正是当前美国联合盟友遏制中国科技和产业发展的背景。 中国必须依托国内大循环稳住国内经济基本盘, 同时以国际循环提升国内大循环效率和水平, 实现双循环相互促进的良性循环。 随着对外开放水平不断提高,我国进口和出口都与国内大循环形成了相互促进的联动效应, 制造业转型升级全面提速, 贸易竞争力和自主性全面提升, 贸易强国梦正在变为现实。
On one hand, the dual circulation linkages continue to generate new momentum for China’s foreign trade. In terms of the import cycle, the production segments in the domestic great circulation require importing intermediate goods such as key components and important raw materials. Therefore, unimpeded international circulation helps assure the stability of the production and supply chains, thereby promoting the development of domestic industries. In 2023, China’s imports and exports of intermediate goods totaled RMB 25.53 trillion, accounting for 61.1% of the total value of foreign trade. Imports of intermediate goods amounted to RMB 14.29 trillion, accounting for 79.4% of China’s total imports, and the trade deficit in intermediate goods reached RMB 3 trillion. Intermediate goods imports have played an important role in China’s industrial development. In terms of the export cycle, Chinese innovation-based products such as high-speed rail, smart phones, ships, and the “three new” of foreign trade (electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) have all grown and prospered in the ultra-large domestic market and entered international markets. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, China’s automobile production and sales in 2023 both exceeded 30 million units for the first time, with domestic sales reaching 25.184 million units, accounting for 83.9% of total sales. Production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million units, respectively, of which 8.292 million were sold domestically and 1.203 million were exported. Domestic sales accounted for 87.33% of the total. As the world’s largest single automobile consumer market, China provides automobile enterprises, especially new energy automobile enterprises, with the driving force for sustained investment and innovation-based development, and the international competitiveness of the automobile industry has been improving rapidly. Prior to 2020, the export volume of Chinese automobiles had been hovering around 1 million units, but then it achieved three consecutive jumps: to 2.19 million units in 2021, 3.4 million units in 2022, and 5.22 million units in 2023. In the short span of three years, China’s automobile exports surpassed those of South Korea, Germany, and Japan, making China the world’s largest auto exporter. In 2023, BYD exported 2,428,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 334.2%. With exports accounting for 80.3% of its total sales, it became the champion both of China’s annual auto sales and of global new energy vehicle sales.
一方面, 双循环联动不断培育中国外贸新动能。从进口循环来看, 国内大循环中的生产环节需要进口关键零部件和重要原材料等中间品, 因此畅通国际循环有利于保障产业链和供应链稳定, 促进国内产业发展。 2023 年, 我国进出口中间品 25. 53 万亿元, 占全部外贸总值的 61. 1%, 其中进口中间品 14.29 万亿元, 占我国全部进口的 79. 4%, 中间品贸易逆差达到 3 万亿元, 中间品进口对我国产业发展发挥了重要作用。 从出口循环来看, 高铁、 智能手机、 船舶以及外贸“ 新三样” 等中国创新产品, 无不是在超大规模的国内市场成长壮大起来并走向国际市场。 根据乘联会数据, 2023 年我国汽车产销量都首次突破 3000 万辆, 其中国内销量达 2518. 4 万辆, 国内销售占比达 83. 9%; 新能源汽车产销量分别达到 958. 7 万辆和 949. 5 万辆, 其中内销 829. 2万辆, 出口 120. 3 万辆, 国内销售占比达 87. 33%。作为全球最大的单一汽车消费市场, 中国为汽车企业, 尤其新能源汽车企业提供了持续投资与创新发展动力, 汽车产业国际竞争力快速提升。 2020 年之前, 中国汽车出口量一直在 100 万辆徘徊, 之后实现三连跳, 2021 年出口 219 万辆, 2022 年出口 340万辆, 2023 年达 522 万辆。 短短三年, 中国汽车出口量接连超越韩国、 德国、 日本, 成为全球第一大汽车出口国。 2023 年, 比亚迪出口汽车 242. 87 万辆, 同比增长 334. 2%, 出口占其总销量的 80. 3%,一举夺得中国汽车年度销量冠军和全球新能源汽车销量冠军。
With the strong support of the domestic great circulation, the dual domestic and international circulation linkage effects are generating tremendous momentum for development. The proportion of high-tech, high value-added products in China’s foreign trade continues to increase. In 2023, exports of electromechanical products reached U.S. $1.98 trillion, accounting for 58.6% of total exports. Among these, exports of the “six-piece set” (specifically referring to automatic data processing equipment and parts, integrated circuits, mobile phones, home appliances, AV equipment and parts, and liquid crystal flat panel displays) reached U.S. $612.53 billion, accounting for 18.12% of total exports. Mobile phones and home appliances accounted for 4.11% and 2.60% of total exports, respectively. Beyond automobiles, China’s global share of new shipbuilding orders has reached a high of 59%, and domestically produced tunnel boring machines account for more than two-thirds of the global market.
有了国内大循环的强力支撑, 国内国际双循环联动效应正在迸发出巨大发展动能。 高技术、 高附加值产品在我国对外贸易中的比重不断上升。 2023年, 机电产品出口 1. 98 万亿美元, 占总出口的 58.6%, 其中“ 六件套” ( 特指自动数据处理设备及其零部件、 集成电路、 手机、 家电、 音视频设备及其零件、 液晶平板显示模组) 出口 6125. 3 亿美元, 占总出口的 18. 12%; 其中手机和家电分别占总出口的 4. 11%和 2. 60%。 除了汽车, 还有新造船订单量占全球的比重已高达 59%, 国产盾构机占全球市场 2/3 以上的份额。
On the other hand, dual-circulation linkages has significantly strengthened the independent development capacity of China’s foreign trade. For a long time after the start of reform and opening-up, foreign capital played an important role in China’s industrialization process. According to the China Industrial Foreign Investment Control Report (2011-2012), in 2007, foreign capital controlled 73% of the market share, 70% of new product sales, and 68.9% of total assets of China’s high-tech industry. Foreign capital has largely contributed to China’s status as the world’s factory, but it also explains why China’s independent development capabilities are insufficient and many vulnerable “chokepoint” areas exist. However, over the past decade or longer, with the dual support of an “efficient market” and an “effective government,” the domestic great circulation has provided opportunities for the development and growth of local enterprises (especially private enterprises), while the international circulation, driven by high-level opening-up, has created a positive international market environment for Chinese enterprises. As a result, China has seen the rise of a great many private high-tech enterprises with large amounts of intellectual property rights, such as Huawei, BYD, and DJI, and their independently controllable production and innovation chains have enabled China’s independent development capabilities to make unprecedented improvements. Through dual circulation linkages, China has significantly enhanced its independent development capabilities, which is mainly reflected in a fundamental reversal in the main foreign trade entities. In the past, China’s foreign trade competitiveness mainly came from foreign-funded enterprises. In 2005, the share of China’s exports accounted for by foreign-funded enterprises reached a historical high of 58.3%, and in 2006, their share of China’s total imports and exports reached a historical high of 58.9%. By 2023, however, the foreign-funded enterprise share of China’s combined imports and exports had dropped to a historical low of 30.2%, with the shares of imports and exports dropping to 32.4% and 28.6%, respectively. In contrast, China’s private enterprises have become the mainstay of foreign trade. According to calculations based on monthly statistical data published by the General Administration of Customs, the share of combined imports and exports accounted for by [domestic] private enterprises reached 52.4% in 2023, of which the shares of exports and imports reached 62.0% and 39.7% respectively, both record highs.
另一方面, 双循环联动显著增强外贸自主发展能力。 在改革开放以来较长时间里, 外资在中国工业化进程中发挥着重要作用。 根据《中国产业外资控制报告( 2011 – 2012)》, 外资在 2007 年控制了我国高科技产业 73% 的市场份额、 70% 的新产品销售和 68. 9%的总资产。 外资在很大程度上造就了中国世界工厂的地位, 但也说明中国自主发展能力不足,存在很多容易被“ 卡脖子” 的领域。 但在过去十多年, 在“ 有效市场” 和“ 有为政府” 双重支撑下, 国内大循环为本土企业( 尤其民营企业) 发展壮大提供了机遇, 高水平开放推动的国际循环又为我国企业营造了积极的国际市场环境。 由此, 中国崛起了一大批诸如华为、 比亚迪、 大疆等拥有大量知识产权的民营高科技企业, 自主可控的产业链和创新链使我国自主发展能力得到前所未有的提升。 通过双循环联动, 我国显著增强了自主发展能力, 主要体现就是外贸主体发生了根本性扭转。 过去, 中国外贸竞争力主要来自外资企业, 2005 年外资企业在全国出口中的占比达到历史最高点 58. 3%, 2006 年外资企业在我国进出口总额中的占比达到历史最高值 58.9%。 但到 2023 年, 外资企业在我国进出口总额中的占比已降至 30. 2%, 为历史最低点, 其中进口和出口占比分别降至 32. 4% 和 28. 6%。 反之, 我国民营企业成为外贸的中流砥柱。 根据海关总署发布的统计月报数据计算, 2023 年民营企业进出口占比达到 52. 4%, 其中出口和进口占比分别达到 62. 0%和 39. 7%, 均创历史新高。
(3) Among China’s trade partnerships, the new international circulation model has resulted in a trend of “rising in the East and declining in the West”2
(三) 国际循环新模式使贸易伙伴关系呈“ 东升西降”趋势
In the past, under the development model dominated by the international great circulation, China had advantages in traditional manufacturing industries and low-end segments of the value chain, while Europe and the United States had advantages in high-tech industries and high-end value chain segments. Both sides took what they needed within the international division of labor system and got along together harmoniously. However, with the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy and industries, this harmonious coexistence is being destroyed step by step. The new international circulation model, driven mainly by “Chinese technology + the Chinese market” and “Chinese technology + the global market,” is breaking up the global market interests that were originally monopolized by Western high-tech. In particular, the sudden rise of China’s high-tech products such as new energy vehicles and Huawei smartphones has inevitably generated tremendous friction with the traditional markets of Europe and the United States. Chinese high-tech products entering European and U.S. markets have faced increasing resistance, while developing countries have broadly welcomed Chinese high-tech products with better cost performance. This has led to the “rising in the East and declining in the West” trend in China’s international trade partnerships.
在过去以国际大循环为主导的发展模式下, 中国在传统制造业和低端价值链环节具有优势, 欧美在高科技产业和高端价值链环节具有优势, 双方在国际分工体系内各取所需、 相安无事。 但随着中国经济和产业转型升级, 这种相安无事被一步步打破,以“ 中国技术+中国市场” 和“ 中国技术+世界市场”为主要驱动的国际循环新模式, 正在打破原先被西方国家高科技所垄断的全球市场利益。 尤其, 我国新能源汽车、 华为智能手机等高科技产品的异军突起, 必然与欧美传统市场产生巨大摩擦, 中国高科技产品进入欧美市场将面临越来越多的阻力, 而广大发展中国家则更加欢迎具有更高性价比的中国高科技产品。 这导致我国国际贸易伙伴关系出现了 “ 东升西降” 趋势。
The developed country share of China’s goods trade continues to decline, while that of Belt and Road partner countries continues to rise. In the past, developed countries were always China’s most important economic and trade partners, and its most important export markets in particular. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in 2006, China’s combined exports to the European Union, the United States, and Japan accounted for 49.2% of its total exports. However, with the economic rise of developing countries and the promotion of China’s market diversification strategy, this proportion fell to 38.8% by 2013, and dropped further to 34.3% in 2023. The same year, China’s exports to the 63 Belt and Road partner countries exceeded U.S. $1 trillion for the first time to reach U.S. $1.19 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%. The share of China’s exports going to those countries increased to 35.2%, exceeding total exports to Europe, the United States, and Japan. Against the backdrop of weak external demand and a deteriorating foreign trade environment, Belt and Road partner countries have become important markets for stabilizing China’s exports. ASEAN surpassed the EU and the United States in 2020, and has been China’s largest trading partner for four consecutive years. In 2023, China’s exports to ASEAN accounted for 15.5% of total exports, exceeding exports to the United States (14.8%) for the first time, and making ASEAN China’s largest export market. In addition, China’s bilateral trade with countries in Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States has also grown significantly. In 2023, bilateral trade between China and Belarus increased by 67.3%, while the increases with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan were 53.5%, 44.9%, 32.2%, and 28.8%, respectively. The increase with Russia reached 26.3%, and Russia surpassed Vietnam to become China’s largest trading partner along the Belt and Road.
发达国家在我国货物贸易中的占比持续下降, “ 一带一路” 共建国家持续上升。 过去, 发达国家始终是我国最重要的经贸合作伙伴, 尤其是我国最重要的出口市场。 根据海关总署的统计, 2006 年, 我国对欧盟、 美国、 日本的出口总额占总出口的 49.2%。 但随着发展中国家经济崛起和我国市场多元化战略的推进, 到 2013 年这一比重已降至 38.8%, 2023 年又进一步降至 34. 3%。 同年, 中国对“ 一带一路” 沿线 63 个国家的出口达到 1. 19 万亿美元, 同比增长 33. 4%, 首次超过 1 万亿美元, 在我国出口中的占比提升至 35. 2%, 超过对欧美日的出口总额。 在外需疲软、 外贸环境恶化背景下, “ 一带一路” 共建国家成为稳定中国出口的重要市场。 东盟从 2020 年开始先后超越欧盟、 美国, 连续四年与中国互为最大贸易伙伴。 2023 年, 我国对东盟出口占比达到 15. 5%, 首次超过对美国出口占比 (14. 8%), 东盟成为我国最大的出口市场。 此外,中国与中亚、 独联体等国家的双边贸易实现大幅增长。 2023 年, 中国与白俄罗斯双边贸易增幅达到 67.3%, 与塔吉克斯坦、 乌兹别克斯坦、 哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的增幅分别达到 53. 5%、 44. 9%、 32.2%和 28. 8%, 与俄罗斯的增幅达 26. 3%, 俄罗斯超过越南, 成为中国在“ 一带一路” 沿线最大的贸易伙伴。
2. New advantages: Comprehensive innovation and national competitive advantages, based on the large domestic market
二、 新优势: 基于国内大市场的全面创新和国家竞争优势
The main sign of China’s transformation from a trading power to a superpower is the increasing proportion of high-tech and high value-added products in manufactured goods. Equipment manufacturing exports, which reflect industry support and integration abilities, reached RMB 13.47 trillion in 2023, accounting for 56.6% of China’s total exports. At the same time, however, China has maintained its international competitive advantage in labor-intensive products, according to statistics as traditionally measured. Take textile fibers, yarns, fabrics, and apparel as an example. According to UNCTAD statistics, the share of these traditional labor-intensive products in China’s total exports has indeed dropped significantly, from 26% in 1995 to 9.3% in 2022. However, their share of the global market in the same period increased from 10.7% to 33.9%. Although the share has fallen from the historical high of 35.8% in 2015, it has remained relatively high in recent years, and the absolute amount has consistently trended upward, reaching an all-time high of U.S. $335.4 billion in 2022. While China is exporting more high-end manufactured products such as automobiles, smart phones, and ships to the global market, it is also maintaining its advantage in traditional labor-intensive products. Such comprehensive competitive advantage has almost never been seen in the development history of any other country. The formation of China’s new advantages in foreign trade has relied not only on the advantages of enterprises or industries, but also on the comprehensive innovation and national competitive advantages established on the basis of the large domestic market. Independent innovation by enterprises, centered around digital and green technologies, is the core vehicle of China’s new foreign trade advantages, and is also where the key lies, while the large domestic market, composed of many elements, provides the essential soil for innovation-based development (“soil” here refers to national competitive advantages). Both are indispensable.
中国从货物贸易大国走向强国的主要标志, 是工业制成品中高技术、 高附加值产品的占比越来越高。 2023 年, 体现产业配套和集成能力的装备制造业出口达 13. 47 万亿元, 占中国出口总值的比重提升至 56. 6%。 但与此同时, 中国还保持了按传统口径统计的劳动密集型产品的国际竞争优势。 以纺织纤维、 纱线、 织物和服装为例, 根据联合国贸发会议统计数据, 这一传统劳动密集型产品在我国出口总额中的比重确实在大幅下降, 从 1995 年的 26%降至 2022 年的 9. 3%, 但同期在全球市场的份额却从 10.7%上升至 33. 9%, 占比虽低于 2015 年的 35. 8%历史最高点, 但最近几年也一直保持在相对高位,且绝对额一直处于上升趋势, 2022 年达到 3354 亿美元的历史最高位。 中国在向全球市场出口更多汽车、 智能手机、 船舶等高端制造产品的同时, 还保持了传统劳动密集型产品的优势, 这种全面竞争优势在其他所有国家的发展史上几乎从未有过。 中国外贸新优势的形成, 靠的不仅仅是企业或产业优势,也是建立在国内大市场基础之上的全面创新和国家竞争优势。 企业围绕数字技术和绿色技术开展自主创新是我国外贸新优势的核心载体, 也是关键所在,而由多种要素构成的国内大市场则为创新发展提供了必不可少的土壤( 此处“ 土壤” 即为国家竞争优势), 两者缺一不可。
(1) The large domestic market provides fertile soil for innovation
(一) 国内大市场为创新提供“ 沃土”
According to Porter’s Diamond theory, the international competitiveness of a country’s industries mainly stems from six environmental factors: production factors, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and firm strategy, structure, and rivalry within the same industry, as well as chance and government. The new opportunities brought by the fourth industrial revolution are the same for all enterprises around the world. What is different is that there are great disparities in the factor endowments of the countries in which enterprises are located, such as production factors, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and government (collectively referring to the overall market environment of a country), which will directly affect the implementation effectiveness of enterprises’ innovation and development strategies. Here, the important sources for the formation of China’s new advantages in foreign trade will be discussed mainly in terms of the three aspects: factors of production, production chain support, and the government’s role.
根据波特的钻石体系理论, 一国产业的国际竞争力主要源于六项环境因素: 生产要素、 需求条件、相关与支持性产业、 企业战略/ 企业结构/ 同业竞争,以及机会和政府。 第四次工业革命所带来的新机遇对全球所有企业都是一样的, 所不同的是, 企业所在国家在生产要素、 需求条件、 相关与支持性产业以及政府等要素禀赋( 统称为一国整体的市场环境)上存在巨大差异, 将直接影响企业创新发展战略的实施效果。 在此, 主要从生产要素、 产业链支撑和政府作用三方面阐述中国外贸新优势形成的重要源泉。
1. The formation of new advantages in foreign trade is closely related to China’s sustained high investment in education and human capital, advanced infrastructure, and other advanced and specialized factors of production.
1. 外贸新优势的形成, 与中国对教育和人力资本、 先进基础设施等高级要素和专业要素的持续高投入密切相关
Porter believes that in the competitive advantage of most industries (especially advanced industries that drive productivity), factors of production are usually created rather than naturally formed.
波特认为, 大多数产业(尤其是带动生产率的先进产业) 的竞争优势中, 生产要素通常是创造得来而非自然天成的。
On one hand, China has continued to step up investment in education and human capital accumulation, providing talent assurance for innovation-based development. For more than a decade, China has continuously promoted scientific research and innovation by targeting the world’s technological cutting edge and the country’s major strategic requirements, strengthening the construction of basic, emerging, and interdisciplinary academic disciplines, and continuously increasing original innovation quality and talent development capability. At present, more and more universities have incorporated cutting-edge content such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and open source into professional teaching, and are committed to using new knowledge systems and content to develop interdisciplinary talents and scientific and technological leaders. According to calculations by the China National Academy of Educational Sciences, China’s education power index ranked 23rd in the world in 2023, up 26 places from 2012, making China the country with the fastest progress. Against the backdrop of a gradually weakening demographic dividend, a dividend of human capital quality has gradually emerged. In the two decades from 2000 to 2020, China trained 60 million engineers, providing talent assurance for the ongoing penetration of emerging technologies such as AI and big data into industries. According to the paper “China is Fast Outpacing U.S. STEM PhD Growth” by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University, China produced 49,498 STEM field PhDs in 2019, 1.5 times the number produced in the United States. It is expected that by 2025, the number of STEM field PhDs in China will be double that of the United States. The gradual accumulation of talent provides strong support for the transformation and upgrading of China’s industries, oriented towards the cutting edge of science and technology (S&T). Since 2018, China’s opening-up to the outside has been assailed by Western countries, but because China has built a massive human resources foundation, its ability to independently cultivate talent and independently control the supply of talent has continued to improve. This has enabled China to maintain S&T development resilience even in the face of “chokepoints” and technological blockades.
一方面, 中国持续加大教育投入和人力资本积累, 为创新发展提供人才保障。 在过去十多年, 中国不断瞄准世界科技前沿和国家重大战略需求推进科研创新, 加强基础学科、 新兴学科、 交叉学科建设, 不断提升原始创新能力和人才培养质量。 目前,已经有越来越多高校将人工智能、 大数据、 开源等前沿内容加入专业教学中, 致力于以新的知识体系和内容培养学科交叉融合人才和科技领军人才。 根据中国教育科学研究院的测算, 2023 年我国教育强国指数居全球第 23 位, 比 2012 年上升 26 位, 是进步最快的国家。 在人口红利逐渐减弱的背景下, 人力资本品质红利逐步显现。 在 2000—2020 年这 20年时间里, 中国培养了 6000 万名工程师, 为当下人工智能、 大数据等新兴技术向各行业渗透提供了人才保障。 根据美国乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心的论文《中国正在快速超过美国 STEM 博士增长》 ( China is Fast Outpacing U. S. STEM PhD Growth), 2019 年中国在 STEM 领域培养了 49498 名博士, 是美国的 1. 5 倍; 预计到 2025 年中国在 STEM 领域的博士毕业生将达到美国的 2 倍。 人才的逐渐积累为中国产业面向科技前沿实现转型升级提供了有力支撑。 自 2018 年以来, 虽然我国人才对外开放受到来自西方国家的冲击, 但由于我国已经建立起庞大的人力资源基础, 人才自主培养能力和人才供给自主可控能力不断提高, 使我国即使面临“ 卡脖子” 和技术封锁, 也依然能够保持科技发展韧性。
On the other hand, China has vigorously promoted infrastructure construction, providing strong support for innovation-based development. China has elevated the strategic significance of traditional infrastructure from “a tool to underpin the economy” to a new high level, one of national development and national security, and continues to promote the construction of key infrastructure in areas such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy. Many indicators such as high-speed rail mileage, road mileage, and port throughput have leapt into first place in the world. By the end of 2023, nationwide railway operating mileage reached 159,000 kilometers. Some 45,000 kilometers of that was for high-speed rail, accounting for about 60% of the world’s high-speed rail operating mileage. China Railway Express has operated more than 82,000 train trips and 7.9 million standard cargo units (20-foot equivalent units, TEUs) reaching 217 cities in 25 European countries. The flow of goods through the new western land-sea corridor reaches now 473 ports in 120 countries (regions). At the same time, China has also accelerated the construction of new infrastructure and achieved remarkable results. For example, in the field of information and communication infrastructure, it has accelerated the construction of infrastructure such as 5G, AI, and big data centers, and its network scale and application level lead the world. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2023, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 3.377 million, accounting for over 70% of the global total. More than 80% of incorporated villages nationwide had access to 5G, and there were 805 million 5G mobile phone users nationwide, making it the largest 5G network in the world. At present, 5G industry applications are being promoted in depth in industries such as manufacturing, mining, electricity, ports, and healthcare, and have been integrated into 71 major national economic sectors. There are more than 94,000 application case study examples, and more than 29,000 5G industry virtual private networks. In the green financial infrastructure field, the relevant institutions, standards, rules, and management systems for green finance, as well as supporting systems such as accounting and taxation, are being established and perfected, and social capital is being guided to gather in fields such as clean energy, energy conservation and emissions reduction, and circular economy through structural monetary and credit policies, as well as green financial products such as green credit and green bonds, thereby promoting the formation of green and low-carbon production methods. The construction of the aforementioned infrastructure has played a key role in stimulating market demand, promoting technological progress and industrial development, and raising the level of public services.
另一方面, 中国大力推动基础设施建设, 为创新发展提供强力支撑。 中国将传统基建的战略意义从“ 托底经济的工具” 上升至国家发展与国家安全的新高度, 持续推动交通、 能源、 水利等重点基础设施建设, 高铁里程、 公路里程、 港口吞吐量等多项指标跃居世界第一。 截至 2023 年底, 全国铁路运营里程达到 15. 9 万公里, 其中高铁 4. 5 万公里, 约占全球高铁运营里程的六成; 中欧班列累计开行超 8.2 万列、 790 万标箱, 通达欧洲 25 个国家 217 个城市, 西部陆海新通道货物流向通达 120 个国家( 地区)473 个港口。 同时, 中国还加快新型基础设施建设并取得显著成效。 例如, 在信息和通信基础设施领域, 加快建设 5G、 人工智能、 大数据中心等基础设施, 网络规模和应用水平全球领先。 据工信部统计, 截至 2023 年底, 我国 5G 基站总数达 337. 7 万个, 占全球 70% 以上, 全国行政村通 5G 比例超 80%, 全国 5G 移动电话用户达 8. 05 亿户, 是全球规模最大的 5G 网络。 目前, 5G 行业应用在工业、矿业、 电力、 港口、 医疗等行业深入推广, 已融入 71 个国民经济大类, 应用案例数超 9. 4 万个, 5G行业虚拟专网超 2. 9 万个。 在绿色金融基础设施领域, 健全完善绿色金融相关制度、 标准、 规则和管理体系, 以及会计、 税收等配套制度, 通过结构性货币信贷政策以及绿色信贷、 绿色债券等绿色金融产品, 引导社会资本向清洁能源、 节能减排、 循环经济等领域聚集, 推动形成绿色低碳的生产方式。上述基础设施建设在刺激市场需求、 推动科技进步和产业发展、 提升公共服务水平方面发挥了关键性作用。
2. The strong industrial base and production chain advantages have provided the necessary ecosystem for sustained innovation
2. 强大的工业基础和产业链优势为持续创新提供了必需的生态系统
Porter believes that when a country’s industries or enterprises are compared with international competitors, the soundness of related and supporting industries is one of the key factors determining national competitive advantage. Currently, although the United States leads the world in scientific research, the long-term hollowing out of the manufacturing industry has made it very difficult to convert its absolute advantage in basic science into absolute advantages in manufacturing innovation and productivity growth. China, on the other hand, has 41 major industrial categories, 207 medium-sized industrial categories, and 666 small industrial categories, and is the only country in the world to have all the industrial categories in the UN industrial classification. This means that China can produce almost all industrial products. From traditional manufacturing industries to strategic emerging industries, they nearly all have complete upstream and downstream industry support capabilities, forming strong synergy and innovation effects. Take textiles and apparel as an example. Upstream, industries from cotton cultivation to cotton spinning, chemical fibers, dyes, and reagents, as well as various raw materials, accessories, and parts, have strong production capabilities, and production equipment is increasingly domestically produced and intelligentized. Downstream, supporting services such as logistics, finance, and networks are increasingly comprehensive. This complete, mature, and synergistic whole-production-chain development model has greatly boosted the production efficiency of the textiles and apparel industry. Take high-speed rail as another example. One of the keys to China’s success in building the world’s longest, fastest, densest, and most technologically advanced high-speed rail network is that it has formed a complete high-speed rail production chain consisting of segments like research and development, design, track construction, vehicle manufacturing, signaling systems, and operations management. In the new energy vehicle field, China has a complete production chain for electric vehicles. In addition to the ability to manufacture core components such as batteries, motors, and domain controllers, the production capabilities are already fully mature in other less technologically advanced fields, such as automotive glass, body design, suspension manufacturing, tire manufacturing, lights, and vehicle bodies. Relying on its whole-production-chain layout, BYD has formed significant synergies, improving the competitiveness and profitability of end products. The core components purchased by Tesla’s Shanghai factory, such as batteries and motors, come mainly from domestic enterprises. The unique production chain advantages have created a set of advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industry clusters with nationwide influence. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2022, there were 45 national advanced manufacturing clusters in China, with a total output value of over RMB 20 trillion; and the first batch of national strategic emerging industry clusters includes 66 enterprises. In addition, the success of cross-border e-commerce enterprise SHEIN is also inseparably linked to the rapid response capabilities of Made in China. A solid foundation has been laid for e-commerce to go global, and that is precisely because suppliers for almost all goods can be found in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other regions, and the goods can be manufactured quickly.
波特认为, 当一国产业或企业与国际竞争对手比较时, 相关及辅助产业是否健全是决定国家竞争优势的关键因素之一。 当前, 美国虽然在科学研究方面处于世界领先地位, 但由于长期的制造业空心化, 导致其在基础科学的绝对优势却很难转化为制造业创新和生产力增长的绝对优势。 而中国拥有 41个工业大类、 207 个工业中类、 666 个工业小类, 是全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家。 这意味着中国几乎可以生产所有的工业产品,从传统制造业到战略性新兴产业, 几乎都具有完备的上下游产业配套能力, 形成了强大的协同效应和创新效应。 以纺织服装为例, 上游从棉花种植到棉纺以及化纤、 染料及助剂等各类原料及辅料、 配件上具有强大的生产能力, 且生产设备的国产化、 智能化程度日益提高, 下游有日益完善的物流、 金融、网络等配套服务保障, 这种完整、 成熟、 相互协同的全产业链发展模式大大提升了纺织服装产业的生产效率。 再以高铁为例, 中国之所以能够建成世界上里程最长、 速度最快、 网络最密集、 技术最先进的高速铁路网, 关键之一就在于中国在高铁领域形成了由研发设计、 轨道建设、 车辆制造、信号系统、 运营管理等环节构成的完整的产业链条。 在新能源汽车领域, 中国拥有完整的电动汽车产业链, 除了电池、 电机、 域控制器等核心零部件的生产制造能力, 在其他技术水平不太高的领域, 如汽车玻璃、 车身设计、 悬挂制造、 轮胎制造、 车灯、 车体等的生产能力都已经完全成熟。 比亚迪依靠全产业链布局, 形成了显著的协同效应,提高了终端产品的竞争力和盈利能力。 特斯拉上海工厂采购的电池和电机等核心零部件都主要来自国内本土企业。 独特的产业链优势, 造就了一批具有全国影响力的先进制造业和战略性新兴产业集群。据工信部数据, 2022 年, 我国国家级先进制造业集群有 45 家, 集群产值超 20 万亿元; 第一批国家战略性新兴产业集群有 66 家。 此外, 跨境电商企业 SHEIN 的成功, 也离不开中国制造的快速响应能力。 正是因为几乎所有商品都可以在广州、 深圳等地区找到供应商并实现快速制造, 才为电商出海打下了坚实基础。
3. The balance between government intervention and laissez-faire has become an important “cradle” for nurturing industrial development
3. 政府干预与放任的平衡成为孕育产业发展的重要“ 摇篮”
Porter believes that the role of the government is to provide enterprises with an industry environment in which to progress and develop, mainly by creating macro-level institutional factors for enterprise competition. Specifically, it is to constantly seek the right balance between intervention and laissez-faire. Relying on its sovereign independence advantage, the Chinese government can intervene without hesitation when it should and let go when it should leave things alone. It is precisely because of this dynamic balance that we have been able to see large numbers of Chinese enterprises rise. If the Chinese government had not established a network censorship system as a firewall within its jurisdiction when it did, China would be like Europe and Japan today and would not have internet giants such as BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent). Similarly, without the guidance and support of appropriate industrial policies, China would not have been able to achieve such great successes today in areas like high-speed rail, domestically produced large aircraft, new energy, and new energy vehicles.
波特认为, 政府的作用就是给企业提供进步和发展的产业环境, 主要是为企业竞争创造宏观的制度要素。 具体来说, 就是在干预与放任中不断寻找平衡点。 依靠主权独立优势, 中国政府可以在该干预的时候不犹豫, 该放任的时候就放手。 正是因为有了这个动态的平衡点, 才让我们看到大量中国企业的崛起。 试想, 如果不是中国政府当年在管辖范围内建立网络审查系统作为防火墙, 那么今天的中国就会像欧洲和日本一样, 而不可能拥有如 BAT ( 百度、 阿里巴巴、 腾讯) 这样的网络巨头企业。 同样, 如果没有适当的产业政策引导和扶持, 中国也不可能在高铁、 国产大飞机、 新能源、 新能源汽车等领域取得今天这样的伟大成就。
(2) Digital technology innovation is reshaping new advantages in foreign trade
(二) 数字技术创新重塑外贸新优势
On one hand, digital industrialization is empowering advantages for China’s trade in digital products. Digital industrialization refers to the industrialization, commercialization, and marketization of data as a factor of production. It is the underlying technical foundation of the digital economy, and also its core. The rapid development of hard and core data science technology in various fields has given rise to industries including the internet, software and information services, telecommunications, and electronics manufacturing. The vast quantities of data have given rise to digital product manufacturing and service industries characterized by new models and industry formats. Various technology-based enterprises with data innovation and application abilities are creating new advantages for China in the digital trade field. According to UNCTAD statistics, China’s trade in digitally deliverable services accounted for only 1.45% of the global total in 2005, less than half of India’s (3.11%), and far lower than that of the United States (16.82%), Germany (6.79%), and Japan (3.66%). China surpassed Japan in 2011, however, and by 2022 China’s share had risen to 5.21%, slightly lower than Germany (5.88%) and India (5.89%), but still far lower than the United States (16.39%). In digital product trade fields, the United States had clearly left others in the dust, but China is catching up fast and has already overtaken the United States in the field of telecommunication, computer, and information services. In 2010, China’s exports in the field of telecommunication, computer, and information services amounted to U.S. $10.476 billion, which was 39.45% of the United States’ U.S. $26.556 billion. But then China caught up quickly, and in 2022, China’s exports reached U.S. $82.923 billion, 1.25 times U.S. exports of U.S. $66.227 billion! Behind this were the many Chinese high-tech companies such as Huawei, Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, and ZTE that epitomize vigorous determination to forge ahead amid the trends of the times.
一方面, 数字产业化为我国数字产品贸易优势赋能。 数字产业化是指数据要素的产业化、 商业化和市场化, 是数字经济的底层技术基础, 也是数字经济的核心。 当前, 各领域数据科学硬核技术的快速发展, 催生了包括互联网、 软件和信息服务、 电信和电子信息制造等行业, 海量数据催生出以新模式、 新业态为特征的数字产品制造和服务业。 各种拥有数据创新能力和应用实施能力的科技类企业正在为中国创造数字贸易领域的新优势。 根据联合国贸发会议统计数据, 2005 年, 我国可数字化交付的服务贸易出口占全球的比重只有 1. 45%, 还不及印度( 3. 11%) 的一半, 更是远低于美国( 16. 82%)、德国(6. 79%)、 日本(3. 66%) 等。 但我国在 2011 年超过了日本, 到 2022 年, 我国比重已上升至 5.21%, 略低于德国( 5. 88%) 和印度( 5. 89%), 但仍远低于美国(16. 39%)。 显然, 在数字产品贸易领域, 美国优势可谓一骑绝尘, 但中国正在努力赶超,尤其在电信、 计算机和信息服务领域, 中国已经实现超越。 2010 年, 中国在电信、 计算机和信息服务领域的出口额为 104. 76 亿美元, 而美国为 265. 56亿美元, 中国是美国的 39. 45%。 但随后中国便一路赶超, 到 2022 年中国出口达 829. 23 亿美元, 而美国则为 662. 27 亿美元, 中国是美国的 1. 25 倍多!在这背后, 正是众多如华为、 腾讯、 百度、 阿里巴巴、 中兴通讯等中国高科技企业在时代潮流中踔厉奋发的缩影。
On the other hand, industrial digitalization is constantly reshaping China’s traditional trade advantages. Industrial digitalization uses modern digital and information technology, advanced internet, and AI technology to digitally empower traditional industries, bringing a brand new model for economic development. Whether it is agriculture, manufacturing, or services, value can be added through data collection, processing, analysis, and monetization along the data value chain, opening up a brand new value-adding path for economic development. This new path is most beneficial to China because China has formed an independent and complete industrial system with the full range of categories. All of China’s industries can realize technology monetization through digitalization-based empowerment and transform to become intelligentized, networkized, green, and high-end. It is this new value-adding path that perfectly explains why traditional labor-intensive industries such as textiles and apparel, which have lost their cost advantage, can still maintain a competitive advantage in today’s international market. In fact, through digital transformation, these industries are no longer labor-intensive industries in the traditional sense, but are technology-, knowledge-, and capital-intensive industries. According to our research, Ningbo Ruisheng Intelligent Technology, an enterprise that specializes in providing integrated digital solutions for the apparel manufacturing industry, uses flexible, agile, and efficient systems to achieve the digitalized, automated, and intelligentized transformation of apparel production. This can help traditional apparel manufacturers improve production efficiency by 30%. Another firm, Ningbo garment OEM enterprise Shenzhou International, uses digitalization and intelligentization to achieve vertical integration of the entire industry chain from fabric R&D to garment manufacturing. Its net profit margin has stayed at around 20% for years, and its export volume, profits, and taxes have ranked first in the domestic garment industry for many years, completely overturning people’s views on traditional OEM enterprises.
另一方面, 产业数字化不断为我国重塑传统贸易优势。 产业数字化利用现代数字和信息技术、 先进互联网和人工智能技术对传统产业进行数字化赋能, 为经济发展带来了全新模式。 无论农业、 工业还是服务业都可以通过数据价值链上的数据收集、处理、 分析和货币化来实现增值, 为经济发展开辟了一条全新的价值增值路径。 这一新路径对中国最有利, 因为中国形成了门类齐全、 独立完整的工业体系, 我国所有产业都可以通过数字化赋能实现技术变现, 并向智能化、 网络化、 绿色化和高端化转型。 正是这一全新的价值增值路径, 可以完美解释我国已经失去成本优势的纺织服装等传统意义上的劳动密集型产业, 为何还能在今天的国际市场上保持竞争优势。 事实上, 通过数字化转型, 这些产业已不再是传统意义上的劳动密集型产业, 而是技术、知识和资本密集型产业。 据笔者调研, 宁波瑞晟智能是一家专门针对服装制造行业提供一体化数字解决方案的企业, 利用柔性、 灵活和高效的系统实现服装生产的数字化、 自动化、 智能化转型, 可以帮助传统服装生产企业提升 30% 的生产效率。 另外一家宁波服装代工企业申洲国际利用数字化、 智能化实现从面料研发到成衣制造的全产业链纵向一体化整合, 净利润率多年保持 20% 左右, 出口额、 利润、 税收连续多年位居国内服装行业首位, 彻底颠覆了人们对传统代工企业的看法。
In addition, trade digitalization has also given rise to new industry formats and business models, such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement trade, which have further promoted all-round innovation in trade processes, resource coordination, and supervision. This has greatly reduced trade costs and stimulated the vitality of more trade entities, further consolidating and enhancing China’s competitive advantage as a major goods trading country. For example, Chinese cross-border e-commerce enterprise SHEIN has linked “workshop-style” small shoe and clothing factories at one end with global market data at the other end through digital transformation, creating a flexible supply chain where the consumption and production sides interact in seconds within the same digital system, thereby achieving efficient flows of business, capital, information, and logistics. SHEIN has now become a unicorn enterprise valued at a hundred billion U.S. dollars, the largest e-commerce platform in the Middle East, and second only to Amazon in North America. Clearly, under the new model of value adding, the rules of economic competition have completely shattered the low-cost strategies of the past. The competitiveness of nations and enterprises can only be maintained using a strategy of providing products and services in innovative ways. On this front, Chinese enterprises are becoming world-leading enterprises.
此外, 贸易数字化还催生了如跨境电商、 市场采购贸易等新业态新模式, 进一步促进贸易流程、资源统筹以及监管环节等全方位创新, 大大降低了贸易成本, 激发了更多贸易主体活力, 进一步巩固和提升了我国作为货物贸易大国的竞争优势。 例如,作为中国跨境电商企业, SHEIN 通过数字化改造,把一端的“ 作坊式” 鞋服小工厂和另一端的全球市场数据链接起来, 打造出消费侧和生产侧在同一个数字化系统里秒级交互的柔性供应链, 实现了业务流、资金流、 信息流、 物流的高效流转。 目前, SHEIN已经成为估值千亿美元的独角兽企业, 是中东地区最大的电商平台, 在北美仅次于亚马逊。 显然, 在全新的价值增值模式下, 经济的竞争规则已经彻底打破以往的低成本战略, 只有以创新方式提供产品和服务的战略才能保持国家和企业的竞争力。 在这方面, 中国企业正在成为全球领先企业。
(3) Green technology innovation is forging new competitive advantages
(三) 绿色技术创新铸就新赛道优势
In traditional manufacturing fields, developing countries such as China and India are at low-end levels, and globally famous brands are few. With the signing of the Paris Agreement, 178 parties reached a consensus on climate change issues, agreeing to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change and make unified arrangements for global action after 2020 to address climate change. A succession of major global economies has proposed carbon neutrality targets, triggering a new energy revolution around the world, and the green transformation has become a new avenue of competition for major economies. China announced in 2020 that it would strive to peak its carbon emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As the world’s largest developing country, China has made a solemn commitment to go from peak carbon to carbon neutrality. Although the challenges are huge, there are also major opportunities. For example, in the field of traditional automobiles, no Chinese car company can compare with U.S., Japanese, or European car companies, and as latecomers, there is almost no possibility of mounting a challenge. Now, however, under the pressure of green development, China has already achieved “overtaking by changing lanes” in green industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy technologies. While effectively addressing climate and environmental challenges, it is also creating new employment opportunities and economic development momentum. In 2023, one in every three cars exported from China was an electric passenger vehicle. China’s production and sales of electric vehicles accounted for more than 60% of the global total, ranking it first in the world for the ninth consecutive year. The domestic penetration rate will reach 31.6%, 9.6 percentage points higher than the global penetration rate. In addition to electric vehicles, China has also made huge breakthroughs and rapid progress in fields such as lithium batteries and solar cells. In 2023, the combined exports of the “three new” (electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells) exceeded RMB 1 trillion for the first time, having maintained double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters.
在传统制造业领域, 中国和印度等发展中国家都处于低端水平, 鲜有全球知名品牌。 随着《巴黎协定》签署, 178 个缔约方对气候变化问题达成共识, 同意采取措施减排温室气体以减缓气候变化,并对 2020 年后全球应对气候变化的行动作出统一安排。 全球主要经济体相继提出了碳中和目标, 在全球促成了一场新能源革命, 绿色转型成为主要经济体竞争的新赛道。 中国在 2020 年宣布力争 2030 年前碳达峰, 努力争取 2060 年前实现碳中和。 作为世界上最大的发展中国家, 中国作出了从碳达峰到碳中和的庄严承诺, 虽然挑战巨大, 但更是重大机遇。例如, 在传统汽车领域, 没有一家中国车企可以与美日欧车企相提并论, 且作为后发企业几乎没有挑战的可能。 但是, 在绿色发展的压力之下, 中国目前已经在电动汽车、 电池、 可再生能源技术等绿色产业领域实现了换道超车, 在有效应对气候环境挑战的同时, 创造了新的就业机会和经济发展动能。 2023 年, 我国每出口 3 辆汽车就有 1 辆是电动载人汽车, 电动汽车产销量占全球比重超过 60%、 连续 9 年位居世界第一位, 国内渗透率达到 31. 6%, 比全球渗透率高出 9. 6 个百分点。 除了电动汽车, 中国在锂电池和太阳能电池等领域也取得了巨大突破和快速发展。 2023 年, “ 新三样” 产品( 电动载人汽车、 锂电池、 太阳能电池) 合计出口首次突破万亿元大关, 连续 14 个季度保持两位数增长。
Of course, with regard to foreign trade advantages, apart from continuing to make efforts in the two major areas of digitalization and greening, China has also achieved new breakthroughs in more advanced manufacturing industries, such as aerospace equipment, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, advanced rail transit equipment, power equipment, new materials, biomedicine, and other advanced manufacturing industries, as well as future industries such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, new ultra-large-scale intelligent computing centers, and third-generation internet. We believe that in the not-too-distant future, China will have more new manufacturing, new services, and new industry formats that benefit mankind, and these will go on to become China’s “new business cards” in foreign trade.
当然, 中国外贸优势除了在数字化、 绿色化两大领域持续发力外, 还在更多先进制造业领域实现新突破, 如航空航天装备、 海洋工程装备及高技术船舶、 先进轨道交通装备、 电力装备、 新材料、 生物医药等先进制造业, 以及人形机器人、 脑机接口、超大规模新型智算中心、 第三代互联网等未来产业。相信在不远的未来, 中国将会有更多造福人类的新制造、 新服务、 新业态, 继续接棒成为中国外贸 “ 新名片”。
3. New thinking: Risks and challenges facing the new circulations and new advantages
三、 新思考: 新循环和新优势面临的风险和挑战
At present, China’s foreign trade development situation is both encouraging and worrying at the same time. Whether it is building the new international circulation model or consolidating and expanding new advantages in foreign trade, they both face greater risks and challenges that must be given sufficient attention, planned for in advance, and dealt with properly.
当前, 我国外贸发展形势既令人鼓舞, 但同时也有隐忧。 无论是构建国际新循环模式还是巩固拓展外贸新优势, 都面临较大的风险和挑战, 须引起足够重视, 并提前谋篇布局, 妥善应对。
(1) The new circulation model faces dual market and technological risks
(一) 新循环模式面临市场和技术双重风险
Under the new pattern of development, China’s external circulation has shifted more towards the model of “Chinese technology + the Chinese market” and “Chinese technology + the global market.” Under this model, it is crucial for China to maintain the cutting edge of technological innovation and smooth connectivity between the Chinese market and the global market. In reality, though, this circulation model faces certain risks, both at the technological and market levels.
在新发展格局下, 中国的外循环更多转向“ 中国技术+中国市场”—“ 中国技术+世界市场” 模式。在这一模式下, 中国保持技术创新前沿以及中国市场和全球市场的顺畅联通至关重要。 但从现实来看,无论是在技术层面还是在市场层面, 这种循环模式都面临一定风险。
From a technological perspective, leading the new international circulation faces the risk of insufficient original innovation ability. The rupture in the global trading system between the Chinese and U.S. markets is becoming increasingly apparent. With the world forming two relatively independent production chain and innovation chain systems, innovation has become the key to strategic competition between China and the United States. At present, because China’s market and talent advantages are conducive to completing the innovation process from 1 to N, China has strong innovation capabilities in terms of integrated innovation and the introduction, digestion, and reabsorption of foreign technologies. However, there is still a large gap between China and the United States and Europe when it comes to completing original innovation from 0 to 1. Take for example AI, the new focus of international competition. Although China is currently in the top tier globally, there is still a large gap in terms of the basic theory and original algorithms of AI, as well as high-end chips, key components, high-precision sensors, etc. There is also no internationally influential open source or open platform for AI. At present, most of the major algorithms and core technologies used in multiple processes, such as the construction and training of large language AI models, come from the United States. Top papers and major theoretical innovations mainly come from the United States, the UK, Canada, etc. According to the report “Who Is Winning the AI Race: China, the EU, or the United States?” released in 2021 by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a U.S. think tank, China has the advantage of a wealth of application scenarios, but in terms of AI research, talent, and enterprise development, the gap with the United States is obvious. According to the AMiner AI 2000 list of the world’s most influential AI scholars released by Tsinghua University in 2022, the United States had 1,146 people among the world’s highly influential scholars in AI, and China 232. China ranked second, but the gap with the United States was not small, with China having only one-fifth the number of U.S. scholars on the list. More concerning still is that against the backdrop of the not-very-effective embargo early in the Biden administration, the United States has begun to interfere with the open and shared global field of open source innovation and collaboration. On May 23, 2024, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to submit a bill restricting the export of large open source AI models, in an attempt to tear a legal hole for the U.S. government to bar Americans from collaborating with foreigners on developing AI systems. According to statistics, 97% of software developers and 99% of enterprises worldwide use open source technology. Currently, however, the mainstream international open source foundations and open source projects, as well as most open source licenses, were either born in the United States or are controlled by U.S. companies. Sources could be closed and supply cut off at any time due to U.S. government intervention. For this reason, China urgently needs to achieve breakthrough innovations in the area of basic research, and to build an independently controllable global technology ecosystem. However, because basic research is characterized by high costs, long cycles, and low short-term returns, it constitutes a huge challenge to China’s future leadership of the new international circulation model.
从技术层面来看, 引领国际新循环面临原始创新能力不足的风险。 全球贸易体系以中美市场为界的割裂效果正在变得越来越明显, 世界正在形成两个相对独立的创新链和产业链体系, 创新成为中美战略竞争的关键。 目前, 由于中国的市场和人才优势有利于完成从 1 到 N 的创新过程, 因此在集成创新和引进消化再吸收方面的创新能力较强, 但在完成从 0 到 1 的原始创新方面与美欧还有较大差距。以国际竞争的新焦点———人工智能为例, 目前我国虽然已经跻身全球第一梯队, 但在人工智能基础理论和原创算法以及高端芯片、 关键部件、 高精度传感器等方面都存在较大差距, 也未形成具有国际影响力的人工智能开源开放平台。 目前, 人工智能大模型构建、 训练等多个流程使用的主要算法及核心技术大部分来自美国, 顶级论文和重大理论创新主要源自美国、 英国、 加拿大等。 根据美国智库信息技术与创新基金会( ITIF) 2021 年发布的《谁在人工智能竞赛中获胜: 中国、 欧盟还是美国?》( Who Is Winning the AI Race: China, the EU, or the United States?) 报告, 中国具有应用场景丰富的优势, 但在人工智能研究、 人才、 企业发展等方面与美国差距明显。 根据清华大学 2022 年发布的 AMiner AI 2000全球最具影响力人工智能学者榜单, 在全球人工智能高影响力学者中, 美国入选 1146 人次, 中国入选 232 次人, 虽位列第二, 但与美国差距不小, 上榜的学者人数只有美国的 1 / 5。 更为严峻的是, 在拜登政府前期封锁不太奏效的背景下, 美国开始把手伸向开放共享的全球开源创新协作领域。 2024 年 5月 23 日, 美国众议院外交事务委员会以压倒性多数投票提交了一项开源 AI 大模型出口限制法案,意图为美国政府禁止美国人与外国人合作开发 AI系统撕开法律的口子。 据统计, 全球 97% 的软件开发者和 99%的企业使用开源技术。 然而, 目前国际主流开源基金会、 开源项目以及多数开源许可证均诞生于美国或由美国公司掌控, 随时可能受美国政府的干预而闭源断供。 为此, 中国亟需在基础研究领域实现突破性创新, 并构建自主可控的全球技术生态体系。 但由于基础研究具有成本高、周期长且短期回报低的特点, 因此对我国未来引领新国际循环模式构成巨大挑战。
From a market perspective, leadership of the new international circulation faces the risk of sluggish domestic market consumption. Under the new circulation model, China needs to use the domestic great circulation to drive the common development of more countries, and continue to build good momentum from mutual promotion between the domestic and international circulations. Currently, however, sluggish consumption in China’s domestic market could also impact the sustainability of the international circulation. For over a decade, China’s exports to Belt and Road partner countries have increased continuously. The “rising in the East and declining in the West” that has emerged in its trade partnerships has to a large extent compensated for the loss of international market share caused by decoupling and chain-breaking against China on the part of the United States and other Western countries in recent years. However, there are also potential risks in this: If the “decline in the West” remains unchanged, can the “rise in the East” be sustained? Even if the “rise in the East” is sustainable, will it be enough to compensate for the further decline in China’s market share in the West? There is another factor that cannot be ignored either, and that is the fact that China has a surplus with the vast majority of developing countries, and the surplus is still getting bigger, which shows that the contribution of China’s large domestic market to these countries still leaves much room for improvement. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China’s total exports of goods grew by 0.6% in 2023, and exports to Belt and Road partner countries grew by 6.9%; total imports of goods fell by 0.3%, and imports from Belt and Road partners fell by 1.9%. From 2021 to 2023, China’s trade surplus with Belt and Road partner countries grew from RMB 1.58 trillion to RMB 1.99 trillion. The risk of trade frictions is rising due to the persistent and widening trade deficits with these countries. According to UNCTAD data, China’s imports as a share of global imports reached a record high of 11.86% in 2021, just 1.13 percentage points behind that of the United States. However, it then remained sluggish for the following two years. Its share fell to 10.55% in 2023, and the gap with the United States widened to 2.54 percentage points. China needs to continue to enlarge its domestic market and increase its importance and attractiveness as a world market.
从市场层面来看, 引领国际新循环面临国内市场消费不振的风险。 在新循环模式下, 中国需要利用国内大循环带动更多国家共同发展, 持续构建国内国际双循环相互促进的良好态势。 但目前来看,中国国内市场消费不振也可能影响国际循环的可持续性。 过去十多年来, 中国对“ 一带一路” 共建国家的出口持续增加, 贸易伙伴关系出现“ 东升西降”,在很大程度上弥补了近几年以美国为首的西方国家对我国脱钩断链所造成的国际市场份额损失。 但同时也隐含着潜在风险: 在“ 西降” 不变的情况下, “ 东升” 是否可以持续? 即便“ 东升” 可以持续, 是否足以弥补我国在西方市场份额的进一步缩减? 此外,还有一个不可忽视的因素是我国对绝大多数发展中国家都是顺差的事实, 且顺差还在扩大, 说明我国国内大市场对这些国家的贡献还有较大提升空间。根据海关总署统计, 2023 年, 我国货物出口总额增长 0. 6%, 对“ 一带一路” 共建国家的出口增长 6.9%; 货物进口总额下降 0. 3%, 从“ 一带一路” 共建国家进口下降 1. 9%。 2021—2023 年, 中国与“ 一带一路” 共建国家的贸易顺差从 1. 58 万亿元扩大至 1. 99 万亿元。 由于这些国家对我国长期逆差且不断扩大, 因而贸易摩擦风险在上升。 根据联合国贸发会数据, 2021 年, 中国进口占全球进口比重达到 11. 86%的历史最高点, 与美国只有 1. 13 个百分点的差距, 但随后两年都处于不振状态, 2023 年占比降至 10. 55%, 与美国差距扩大到 2. 54 个百分点。中国需要持续扩大国内市场规模, 提升作为全球市场的重要性和吸引力。
(2) The new advantages face the challenges of trade barriers and intensifying frictions
(二) 新优势面临贸易壁垒和摩擦加剧的挑战
As China’s industries transform and upgrade from low-end to high-end and advanced manufacturing, the absolute leading position of new energy technologies and products, represented by the “three new” in particular, is challenging the vital interests of Western countries led by the United States. This will inevitably lead to more trade barriers for Chinese export products and will also inevitably exacerbate trade frictions between China and relevant countries. Needless to say, the United States has already escalated from trade frictions to “decoupling and chain-breaking.” In addition to the additional tariffs imposed on Chinese products during the Trump era, the Biden administration has introduced bills that specifically target China, such as the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and CHIPS and Science Act. At the same time, it has joined forces with allies to implement export controls, imposing sanctions on Chinese enterprises in high-tech fields such as chips and 5G to achieve containment ends. In the electric vehicle field, the U.S. government has actively promoted the establishment of an electric vehicle industry chain without Chinese elements and increased subsidies for electric vehicles. On May 14, 2024, the United States announced that it would impose additional tariffs on U.S. $18 billion worth of Chinese imports under Section 301, mainly including steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, and cranes. The tariff on electric vehicles was increased from 25% to 100%. On May 30, the U.S. House of Representatives proposed a new bill aimed at restricting or preventing Chinese car companies from launching connected vehicles in the United States. One can say that the United States has already resorted to extremes to prevent China from developing. The European Union has also decided to impose high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In addition to the United States and European countries, other emerging market countries interested in developing the new energy vehicle industry are also raising barriers on new energy vehicle imports. For instance, Brazil has decided to reimpose tariffs on new energy vehicle imports beginning in January 2024, and will gradually increase the tariff rate on such vehicles; and Turkey has introduced direct restrictions on Chinese automakers. Clearly, the international environment for China’s future foreign trade development is not encouraging. In particular, in the context of China-U.S. strategic competition, the split in the global trading system between the Chinese and U.S. markets will become more pronounced. The U.S.-centered market system is using unprecedented non-market and non-economic means, doing its utmost to suppress China, and trying to restructure the global production, supply, and innovation chain systems in order to regain monopolistic dominance. Under these circumstances, there is also considerable uncertainty as to whether China can maintain its new foreign trade advantages in the long term.
随着我国产业从低端向高端和先进制造业转型升级, 尤其以“ 新三样” 为代表的新能源技术和新能源产品的绝对领先地位, 正在触动以美国为首的西方国家的重大利益, 必然导致中国出口产品遭遇更多的贸易壁垒, 同时也必然加剧中国与相关国家的贸易摩擦。 美国自不必说, 已经从贸易摩擦上升到 “ 脱钩断链”, 除了特朗普时期对中国产品加征的额外关税, 拜登政府出台了所谓“ 防止强迫维吾尔人劳动法”《芯片和科学法案》等专门打压中国的法案,同时联合盟友实施出口管制, 对中国在芯片和 5G等高科技领域的企业实施制裁以达到遏制目的。 在电动汽车领域, 美国政府积极推动建立不含中国元素的电动汽车产业链, 并增加了电动汽车补贴。 2024 年 5 月 14 日, 美国宣布根据 301 条款对价值180 亿美元自中国进口的商品加征关税, 主要包括钢铝、 半导体、 电动汽车、 电池、 关键矿物、 太阳能电池和起重机等, 其中对电动汽车的关税税率从 25%提高到 100%。 5 月 30 日, 美国众议院又提出一项新法案, 旨在限制或阻止中国车企在美国推出联网汽车。 可以说, 美国为了阻止中国发展, 已经无所不用其极。 欧盟也决定对中国电动汽车加征高额关税。 除了欧美国家, 其他有意发展新能源汽车产业的新兴市场国家, 也在提高新能源汽车进口壁垒。 例如, 巴西决定从 2024 年 1 月起恢复征收新能源汽车进口关税, 并且将逐步提高新能源汽车进口关税税率; 土耳其出台了针对中国汽车厂商的直接限制。 显然, 未来中国外贸发展的国际环境不容乐观。 尤其在中美战略竞争背景下, 全球贸易体系以中美市场为界的割裂效果将进一步呈现, 以美国为中心的市场体系正在以前所未有的非市场、 非经济手段, 全力打压中国并试图重构全球产业链、 供应链和创新链体系, 以期重新获得垄断优势地位。 在上述情形下, 中国是否可以长期保持外贸新优势,也存在较大的不确定性。
4. Building a more sustainable new international circulation model
四、 构建更加可持续的国际循环新模式
The strong rise of new advantages in foreign trade is a good thing for China, showing that it is on a promising path of independent development. However, blindly expanding trade in goods is not necessarily all a good thing. In particular, China’s comprehensive competitive advantage makes the world somewhat uneasy, because behind trade is the reallocation of resources, and even more so the redistribution of benefits. Therefore, China needs to build a more sustainable-development-based new circulation model, so that Chinese technology and the Chinese market can better drive the world’s common development. While promoting the open world economy to develop in a more balanced, inclusive, and universally beneficial direction, we can better consolidate and even expand the new advantages in foreign trade. To this end, China must focus on doing the following areas of work well.
外贸新优势的强势崛起, 对中国来说是好事,说明我国正在走一条自主发展的康庄大道, 但一味扩大货物贸易未必全是好事, 尤其全面竞争优势多少让世界感到不安, 因为贸易的背后是资源的重新配置, 更是利益的重新分配。 因此, 中国需要构建更可持续发展的新循环模式, 让中国技术和中国市场更好带动世界共同发展, 在推动开放型世界经济向更加平衡、 包容、 普惠方向发展的同时, 更好巩固甚至扩大外贸新优势。 为此, 我国须着重做好以下几方面工作。
First is promoting the construction of an independently controllable global technology ecosystem in order to provide sustainable leadership for the new circulation. We should accelerate the construction of a complete and systematic national innovation system, accelerate the promotion of S&T immigration, S&T finance, and nationwide institution-building, continue to increase investment in basic research, applied basic research, and cutting-edge research, strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, accelerate the construction of an independently controllable global technology ecosystem, and break through the dilemma of a lack of independent capability in core technologies.
一是推动构建自主可控的全球技术生态体系,为新循环提供持续引领动力。 加快建设完备、 系统的国家创新体系, 加快推动科技移民、 科技金融和举国体制建设, 持续加大基础研究、 应用基础研究和前沿研究的投入力度, 加强国际交流与合作, 加快构建自主可控的全球技术生态体系, 打破核心技术缺乏自主能力的困局。
Second is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, thereby continuing to expand the advantages of the domestic market. The domestic market is the cornerstone in China’s construction of the new circulation system, the base for enterprises entering the global market, and the bargaining chip for China to gain voice on global rules. Accelerating the construction of a unified national market allows the certainty of the internal market’s growth to defuse the uncertainty brought about by external market adjustments, using the domestic market to stabilize the international circulation system, and thereby further enhancing the stability of China’s economic development. While incubating and strengthening new productive forces, we must focus on solving the employment challenges brought about by digitalization and intelligentization, and effectively boost consumption.
二是加快建设全国统一大市场, 持续扩大国内市场规模优势。 国内大市场始终是我国构建新循环体系的基石, 是企业走向全球市场的基地, 更是我国获得全球规则话语权的筹码。 加快建设全国统一大市场, 就是要让内部市场规模增长的确定性化解外部市场调整带来的不确定性, 以国内大市场来稳定国际循环体系, 进一步增强我国经济发展的稳定性。 在培育和强化新质生产力的同时, 要重点解决数字化、 智能化带来的就业难题, 切实提振消费。
Third is promoting the transformation of trade advantages in goods into trade advantages in services. From an overall trade perspective, China’s service trade development has lagged in relative terms. According to UNCTAD data, from 2005 to 2022, the compound annual growth rates of [China’s] global exports of goods, services, and digitally deliverable services were 5.22%, 5.9%, and 7.24%, respectively. The growth rate of trade in services, and digital trade in particular, far exceeded that of trade in goods. In 2022, the proportion of service exports in total exports of goods and services was 22.24% worldwide, and 31% for the United States, but only 10.56% for China, 11.68 and 20.44 percentage points lower than the global and U.S. figures, respectively. China’s share of global exports of digitally deliverable services was 5.21%, which is not only far lower than the United States’ 16.39%, but even lower than India’s (5.89%) and Germany’s (5.88%). This does not match with China’s global leadership in digital technology development. According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in 2023, China’s trade surplus in goods was U.S. $593.9 billion, its trade deficit in services was U.S. $207.8 billion, and its total trade surplus was U.S. $386.1 billion. At present, China’s industrial transformation and upgrading is dominated by high-tech manufacturing industries, with technology, branding, and quality as the core elements. This has laid a foundation for the development of service trade, and for digital trade in particular. China’s next step should be to focus on developing high-value-added service industries, with technology, services, and standards as the core elements, centered around advanced manufacturing and “going global,” and to promote the transformation of its advantages in the trade of goods into advantages in the trade of services, which will make China’s overall trade more balanced.
三是推动货物贸易优势向服务贸易优势转化。从整体贸易来看, 我国服务贸易发展相对滞后。 根据联合国贸发会数据, 2005—2022 年, 全球货物、服务和可数字化交付服务的出口年均复合增长率分别为 5. 22%、 5. 9%和 7. 24%, 服务贸易尤其数字贸易增长速度远超货物贸易。 2022 年, 全球服务出口占货物和服务总出口的比重为 22. 24%, 美国为 31%, 而中国只有 10. 56%, 比全球和美国分别低 11. 68 和 20. 44 个百分点; 中国可数字化交付的服务贸易出口在全球的份额为 5. 21%, 不仅远低于美国的 16. 39%, 甚 至 低 于 印 度 ( 5. 89%) 和 德 国 (5. 88%), 与我国数字技术发展在全球的领先程度不相匹配。 根据国家外汇管理局统计, 2023 年中国货物贸易顺差 5939 亿美元, 服务贸易逆差 2078 亿美元, 贸易总盈余 3861 亿美元。 目前, 我国产业转型升级是以技术、 品牌、 质量为核心要素的高技术制造业为主, 这为发展服务贸易尤其数字贸易奠定了基础。 下一步, 我国应围绕先进制造“ 走出去”,重点发展以技术、 服务、 标准为核心要素的高附加值服务业, 推动货物贸易优势向服务贸易优势转化,使我国整体贸易更趋平衡。
Fourth is promoting the transformation of the international circulation model from “trade-oriented going global” to “ecosystem-oriented going global.” Trade-oriented going global only involves exporting domestically produced goods, which contributes little to the local economy and employment in the importing country. Once export volume reaches a certain level, it is likely to cause trade friction. Ecosystem-oriented going global, on the other hand, is going global with the production chain. It is about building a production chain ecosystem cooperation model with different dimensions and levels based on local conditions, centered around industry ecosystem development, so that technological innovation and industrial applications rooted in China’s large market can take root in different countries, thereby better serving local economic and social development. Ecosystem-oriented going global promotes the transformation of some trade in goods into investment and other modes of cooperation. However, by building a diversified system of technology suppliers and parts suppliers around the world, it will help promote the transformation of goods trade advantages into service trade and digital trade advantages, further consolidating and improving China’s overall competitiveness in trade.
四是推动国际循环模式从“ 贸易型出海” 向“ 生态型出海” 转变。 贸易型出海只是将国内生产的单品出海, 对进口国当地经济和就业贡献甚少, 一旦出口量达到一定程度, 容易引起贸易摩擦。 而生态型出海则是产业链出海, 围绕产业发展生态, 因地制宜构建不同维度、 不同层次的产业链生态合作模式, 使植根于中国大市场的技术创新和产业应用在不同国家生根发芽, 更好服务当地经济和社会发展。生态型出海会推动部分货物贸易转化为投资和其他合作模式, 但通过在全球构建多元化的技术供应商体系和零部件供应商体系, 将有利于推动货物贸易优势向服务贸易和数字贸易优势转化, 进一步巩固和完善中国贸易整体竞争力。
Fifth is responding properly to trade barriers and trade frictions and maintaining the trend of “rising in the East and declining in the West.” On the basis of respecting the development sovereignty of all countries, we should respond properly to trade barriers and trade frictions. On one hand, it is necessary to improve the supporting policies of relevant domestic industries to help enterprises achieve trade compliance. For example, in response to European regulatory requirements in areas such as carbon footprint, ESG, recycling traceability, and cascade utilization, we should, as soon as possible, introduce carbon footprint accounting standards for new energy vehicle production phases, and research and design a Chinese battery passport, so as to solve the carbon compliance issues encountered by Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises in the process of going global. On the other hand, different strategies should be adopted for different countries. For friendly countries, including Belt and Road partner countries and some Western countries, more attention should be paid to the concerns of the other party, trade disputes should be resolved through enhanced dialogue and cooperation as much as possible, and the scale of imports from relevant countries should be expanded a much as possible, so as to maintain the trend of “rising in the East and declining in the West.” However, for a few countries such as the United States, we should help enterprises be fully prepared to deal with the two market systems.
五是妥善应对贸易壁垒和贸易摩擦, 维持“ 东升” 缓和“ 西降” 趋势。 在尊重各国发展主权的基础上, 妥善应对贸易壁垒和贸易摩擦。 一方面, 要完善国内相关行业的配套政策, 帮助企业实现贸易合规。 例如, 针对欧洲在碳足迹、 ESG、 回收溯源、 梯次利用等方面的监管要求, 尽快出台在新能源汽车生产环节的碳足迹核算标准, 研究设计中国电池护照, 破解中国新能源汽车企业在出海过程中遇到的碳合规经营问题。 另一方面, 针对不同国家采取不同策略。 对于包括“ 一带一路” 共建国家和部分西方国家在内的友好国家, 要更多关注对方关切, 尽可能通过加强对话与合作解决贸易纠纷, 尽可能扩大从相关国家的进口规模, 以维持 “ 东升” 缓和“ 西降” 趋势。 但对于美国等少数国家, 我们应帮助企业充分做好应对两个市场体系的准备。