The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy has taken on new meanings. However, seeing as the Biden administration has adopted the Democratic Party’s version of the “America First” line, the credibility and appeal of its Indo-Pacific economic strategy is fundamentally limited. China need not overreact to Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy report, but it does need to prepare now for a trend that will persist for a long time, namely an all-out effort by the United States to return to and manage the Indo-Pacific. Some specific issues raised in this report and the new tricks that the United States is using to pressure China demand our close attention.
较之以往,拜登政府印太战略具有新意。但鉴于拜登政府采取民主党版本的“美国优先”路线,从根本上限制了其印太经济战略的可信度和吸引力。中国对于拜登的印太战略报告不必过度反应,但却需要对未来较长时期美国全力回归和经营印太地区这一趋势早做准备。这份报告提出的一些具体问题以及美国施压中国的新手法,需要引起重视。
The Biden administration published the Indo-Pacific strategy report against the background of an increasingly severe Ukraine crisis and very tense U.S.-Russian relations. This act was an attempt to put on display the White House’s total control over foreign policy and the U.S. resolve to return to the Indo-Pacific region. The report states that the United States has been an “Indo-Pacific power” for more than 200 years and that it will steadfastly anchor itself in the Indo-Pacific.
在乌克兰危机愈演愈烈、美俄关系高度紧张的背景下,拜登政府发布了印太战略报告。此举力图彰显白宫对外交政策的总体把控能力,以及美国回归印太地区的决心。这份报告宣称,200多年的历史表明美国是一个“印太力量”,美国将坚定地将自己锚定在印太地区。
This is the first U.S. Indo-Pacific strategic report published under the White House name. It embodies the Biden administration’s intention to seize dominance over the Indo-Pacific against a background of comprehensively intensifying strategic competition with China. The emergence of “Indo-Pacific” as a geopolitical concept is closely tied to the U.S. search for ways of suppressing the rise of China. High-ranking U.S. officials began discussing the “Indo-Pacific” in a big way under Obama. In 2017, the Trump administration officially put forward the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” and the U.S. Department of Defense published a special Indo-Pacific strategy report in June 2019.
这是首份以白宫名义发布的美国印太战略报告,体现了拜登政府在全面强化对华战略竞争背景下紧抓印太地区主导权的意图。“印太”作为一个地缘政治概念的兴起,与美国寻求压制中国崛起之道紧密相关。奥巴马执政时期,美国高官就开始大谈“印太”,2017年特朗普政府正式提出“自由而开放的印太战略”,美国国防部后在2019年6月专门发布一份印太战略报告。
The new meanings of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy differ from the past in four main areas:
较之以往,拜登政府印太战略的新意主要体现在以下四个方面:
First, it further increases the importance of the Indo-Pacific strategy by linking it to the alignment of the great powers centered on the international order. The report states that the Indo-Pacific should not be viewed solely from the narrow perspective of great power geopolitical competition, but rather that the Indo-Pacific situation should be seen as “defining the basic nature of the international order.” The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” policy tagline, but is also emphasizing the need to realize “connectivity, prosperity, security, and resilience” in the region. The report states that the trends of the next 10 years will be “decisive” for the Indo-Pacific. This reveals the Biden administration’s sense of urgency over strategy deployment and implementation.
第一,进一步提升印太战略的重要意义,将之与大国围绕国际秩序的走向相互挂钩。报告称,不应仅仅从大国地缘政治竞争的狭隘视角看待印太地区,而是要看到印太地区的态势会“界定国际秩序的基本性质”。拜登政府沿用了特朗普政府“自由而开放的印太战略”这一政策表述,但同时强调要使印太地区实现“联通、繁荣、安全和韧性”。报告称,未来10年对印太地区的走向具有“决定性”,这显示了拜登政府布局和施策的战略紧迫感。
Second, in advancing its Indo-Pacific strategy, the Biden administration is working to highlight the fact that it is on the same wavelength as its allies and partners. The report lays out Indo-Pacific-related policy concepts from Japan, India, Australia, the UK, and the EU in a major effort to exaggerate the consistency and interconnections between the U.S. vision for the Indo-Pacific and that of its allies and partners. The report states that the Biden administration will build a “a latticework of strong and mutually reinforcing coalitions” and create a “collective capacity” against its opponent, namely China. The United States will still advance its security strategy centered on “integrated deterrence” by integrating allies and partners into a “defense supply chain” and pushing forward with cooperation in defense S&T. An aspect of the report that merits close attention is its clear mention of the fact that the United States will encourage the EU and NATO to strengthen relations with the Indo-Pacific region: It will “help build bridges between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic.”
第二,拜登政府在推进印太战略方面,着力突出美国与盟友、伙伴之间的“同频共振”。该报告罗列了日本、印度、澳大利亚、英国、欧盟等出台的有关印太的政策构想,大力渲染美国与其盟友、伙伴在印太地区愿景上的一致性、联通性。报告称拜登政府将构建“有力的且相互强化的联盟网络”,打造针对中国等对手的“集体实力”。美国还将推进以“一体化威慑”为中心的安全战略,整合盟友、伙伴的“防务供应链”,推进防务科技合作。值得重视的是,报告明确提出美国将促进欧盟和北约加强与印太地区的关系,“帮助构建印太地区与欧洲-大西洋地区之间的桥梁”。
Third, the Biden administration is working hard to repair the “economic weak link” of its Indo-Pacific strategy. U.S. economic policy tools in this region were weakened by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In October 2021, the Biden administration put forward the concept of an “Indo-Pacific economic framework.” This report stated that a detailed scheme concerning this concept would be introduced in the first half of this year and that it would touch upon multiple areas such as the digital economy and supply chain security. According to the report, the Biden administration, together with its allies and partners, will build a “diverse, open, and predictable” supply chain, expand joint investments centered on decarbonization and clean energy, and put forward a new “digital economy framework.” The Biden administration will also make the Indo-Pacific an important region for implementing the “Build Back Better World” (B3W) initiative, with a particular emphasis on building digital (i.e., 5G) infrastructure.
第三,拜登政府力图补强美国印太战略的“经济短板”。由于特朗普政府退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP),美国在该地区的经济政策工具被弱化。拜登政府曾在2021年10月提出“印太经济框架”构想,这份报告称有关这一构想的详尽方案将在今年上半年推出,涉及数字经济、供应链安全等多个方面。报告称,拜登政府将与盟友和伙伴构建“多元、开放和有预测性的”供应链,围绕去碳化和清洁能源展开共同投资,并提出新的“数字经济框架”。此外,拜登政府将会把印太作为落实“重建更好世界倡议”(B3W)的重要区域,尤其是注重5G等数字基础设施的建设。
Fourth, the Biden Administration has given its Indo-Pacific strategy a stronger ideological coloring. The Biden administration has emphasized the need to strengthen domestic democratic governance in the relevant countries and then to uphold Indo-Pacific “freedom” from the inside out. By means of initiatives such as the Open Government Partnership, the United States will support relevant countries when it comes to safeguarding election security, maintaining media independence, developing civil society, and countering economic coercion. The report also mentions the need to oppose “external interference” and “information manipulation” by countries such as China and Russia in Indo-Pacific nations. The implementation in the Indo-Pacific of the first United States Strategy on Countering Corruption will be another important move by the Biden administration. According to the report, the United States will dedicate itself to raising “fiscal transparency” in the countries of the Indo-Pacific. In addition, the United States will expand activities of organizations such as the Peace Corps in the Indo-Pacific. It will reinforce U.S. soft power through such approaches as establishing quadrilateral mechanism fellowships and implementing the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative.
第四,拜登政府赋予印太战略更强的意识形态色彩。拜登政府强调需加强相关国家的国内民主治理,进而由内而外地维护印太地区的“自由”。美国将通过实施“开放政府伙伴关系倡议”等,在维护选举安全、保持媒体独立性、公民社会发展、反经济胁迫方面为相关国家提供支持。报告还提出要反制中国、俄罗斯等国对印太地区国家实施的“外部干预”和“信息操控”。在印太地区落实美国首份“反腐败国家战略”也将是拜登政府的重要举措,报告称美国将致力于提升印太地区国家的“财政透明度”。此外,美国将扩大“和平队”等组织在印太地区的活动,通过设立四边机制奖学金、实施“东南亚青年领袖倡议”等方式,强化美国的软实力。
The sections of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy report that concern China try to put the “bully” label on China, falsely stating that China “bullies” and “economically coerces” the countries concerned—that it makes comprehensive use of economic, diplomatic, military, and technical forces to establish a “sphere of influence” in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, the report states that the United States hopes to responsibly manage competition with China. Its objective is “not to change China, but to shape the strategic environment in which China operates, establishing a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable to the United States and its allies.” This is the first time that U.S. officials have used the phrase “balance of influence” to elucidate U.S. policy towards China. It differs in a subtle but important way from the usual “balance of power.”
在涉华政策部分,拜登政府的这份印太战略报告试图给中国扣上“地区恶霸”的标签,诬称中国对相关国家实施“霸凌”和“经济胁迫”,综合运用经济、外交、军事和技术力量,欲在印太地区建立“势力范围”。与此同时,报告宣称美国希望负责任地管理与中国的竞争,其目标“不是为了改变中国,而是要塑造中国行事的战略环境,在世界上建立起一种能够在最大程度上对美国及其盟友有利的影响力平衡”。这是美国官方首次使用“影响力平衡”这一说法阐述其对华政策,它与通常所说的“权力平衡”相比有着微妙而重要的差异。
Alarmingly, the Biden administration has made it even clearer that it is placing the Taiwan issue within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategic framework. The report mentions Taiwan or the Taiwan Strait a total of seven times. Moreover, it describes the Taiwan region as an important partner in the Indo-Pacific—an equal to India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. The report says the following: “We will also work with partners inside and outside of the region to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, including by supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes and best interests of Taiwan’s people.” This is a new formulation of the Biden administration in relation to its Taiwan policy and shows that the United States intends to reinforce the role of the Taiwan region in its Indo-Pacific strategy, thus giving impetus to the “internationalization” of the Taiwan issue.
值得警惕的是,拜登政府更加明确地将台湾问题置于美国的印太战略框架之下。报告共有7处提到台湾或台湾海峡,并将台湾地区与印度、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚等并列,作为美国在印太地区的重要伙伴。报告提出,“将与印太地区内外的伙伴合作,维护台湾海峡的和平与稳定,包括支持台湾自我防卫的能力,确保一种台湾的未来以符合台湾民众意愿和最佳利益方式被和平地决定的环境”。这是拜登政府在涉台政策上的新表述,显示美国有意强化台湾地区在其印太战略中的角色,推动台湾问题的“国际化”。
The Biden administration manifests its resolve to advance the Indo-Pacific strategy by especially listing in this report the important policies that the United States will adopt over the next two years. However, the challenges facing the Biden administration are also very noticeable. The report exaggerates the U.S. domestic political consensus regarding Indo-Pacific policy, for the Republican Party does not wish to provide support to Biden’s efforts to promote “climate resilience” and infrastructure construction among Indo-Pacific nations. Even within the Biden administration, there exist relatively major disagreements between the foreign policy team and the economic policy team centered on such matters as an Indo-Pacific digital trade agreement.
拜登政府在这份报告中专门列出未来一两年美国将采取的主要政策,以此体现其推进印太战略的决心。然而,拜登政府面临的挑战也很突出,其夸大了美国国内在印太战略方面的政治共识,而共和党并不愿为拜登在印太地区国家促进“气候韧性”和基础设施建设提供支持。即便在拜登政府内部,外交政策团队与经济政策团队围绕印太数字贸易协定等问题也存在较大分歧。
Clearly, the Biden administration has adopted the Democratic Party’s version of the “America First” line, and its rejection of free trade agreements out of fear of losing votes fundamentally limits the credibility and appeal of its Indo-Pacific economic strategy. A White House official claimed that the approval of the U.S. Congress would not be sought for the “Indo-Pacific economic framework.” This is a reflection of the resistance to Biden’s rule and will make the relevant countries doubtful of the sustainability of Biden government policies.
应看到,拜登政府采取民主党版本的“美国优先”路线,因担心丢失选票而拒斥自由贸易协定,这从根本上限制了美国印太经济战略的可信度和吸引力。白宫官员宣称,“印太经济框架”将不会寻求美国国会的批准,这体现了拜登执政面临的阻力,也会让相关国家质疑拜登政府政策的可持续性。
China need not overreact to this Indo-Pacific strategy report by the Biden administration, but it does need to prepare now for a trend that will persist for a long time, namely an all-out effort by the United States to return to and manage the Indo-Pacific. Some specific issues raised in this report and the new tricks that the United States is using to pressure China demand our close attention. For example, the “economic coercion” hyped up by the United States aims to reinforce an understanding of “Chinese coercion” among the relevant countries, but this also reminds China of the need to continuously optimize its methods of using economic measures to bring about diplomatic objectives.
中国对于拜登政府的这份印太战略报告不必做出过度反应,但却需要对未来较长时期美国全力回归和经营印太地区这一趋势早做准备。这份报告提出的一些具体问题以及美国施压中国的新手法,需要引起重视。比如,美国炒作的“经济胁迫”旨在强化相关国家对“中国威胁”的认知,但也提示中国需对运用经济手段促成外交目标的手法不断进行优化。
In addition, the Biden administration is continually creating new policy tools in areas such as the digital economy, cybersecurity, advanced technology, and high-standard infrastructure, is trying to use the so-called problems of “corruption,” “maritime security,” and “illegal fishing” to put pressure on the Belt and Road Initiative, and, by expanding the activities of the U.S. Coast Guard in the Asia-Pacific region, is striking back at China’s protection of its own rights upon the seas. These trends present new problems and trials for China’s foreign policy towards its neighbors.
此外,拜登政府在数字经济、网络安全、先进技术、高标准基础设施等领域持续打造新的政策工具,试图借助所谓“腐败”、“海事安全”、“非法捕鱼”等问题对“一带一路”施压,通过扩大美国海岸警卫队在亚太地区的活动反击中国的海上维权,这些动向对中国周边外交政策提出了新课题、新考验。