扩大中等收入群体对促进共同富裕的重大意义
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The Focus and Difficulties of Expanding the Middle-income Population are in Rural Areas

扩大中等收入群体对促进共同富裕的重大意义

Researchers at Nankai University argue that increasing the proportion of China’s population in the middle class will have knock-on effects for social stability, productivity growth, and consumer demand. As a result, they argue, continuing to expand this demographic will be “an important task for China going forward in the new stage of development.” The authors recommend Beijing focus on raising income levels of rural residents through rural revitalization, promoting urbanization, and “gradually transition[ing] from an urban development orientation to a strategic focus that prioritizes rural revitalization and development.”


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The Great Significance of Expanding the Middle-income Population to the Promotion of Common Prosperity

扩大中等收入群体对促进共同富裕的重大意义

Achieving common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism, the essence of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, an important feature of the Chinese-style modernization path, and the common expectation of all the people. Expanding the middle-income population and improving the pattern of income distribution are the keys to achieving substantial progress in promoting common prosperity. Since reform and opening up, the Party and the state have always regarded expanding the middle-income population to be the top priority for improving income distribution and have made clear strategic deployments. The 16th Party Congress proposed that “with the goal of common prosperity, we must expand the proportion of middle-income people and raise the income level of low-income people,” revealing the important relationship between expanding the consumption of the middle-income population and economic development. The 17th Party Congress pointed out that “we must basically form a rational and orderly income distribution pattern, with the middle-income population in the majority,” linking the expansion of the middle-income population with the improvement of the income distribution pattern. The Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee proposed that we must “work hard to narrow the income distribution gap between urban and rural areas, regions, and industries, and gradually form an olive-shaped distribution pattern.” The 19th Party Congress further raised the expansion of the middle-income population to the level of development strategy and raised the “middle-income population ratio” to become the first stage goal of the “two-step” development strategy for the period from 2020 to the middle of this century, indicating that the Party Central Committee attaches great importance to expanding the middle-income group. The Fourth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee reiterated that it is necessary to regulate the order of income distribution to “protect legal incomes, increase the income of low-income people, expand the middle-income population, regulate excessive incomes, clean up and regulate hidden incomes, and ban illegal incomes.” In 2021, the 10th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission more clearly proposed that we must “reasonably regulate high incomes, ban illegal incomes, form an olive-shaped distribution structure with a large middle and two small ends, promote social fairness and justice, promote the all-round development of the people, and make solid progress towards the goal of common prosperity for all the people.” This is actually an important sign of the expansion of the middle-income population and the formation of an olive-shaped distribution pattern for common prosperity. On the basis of adhering to China’s basic socialist economic system, expanding the middle-income population is in line with the basic direction of China’s economic and social development and will help accelerate the realization of the strategic goal of common prosperity.

实现共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,是中国特色社会主义制度的题中之义,是中国式现代化道路的重要特征,是全体人民群众的共同期盼。而扩大中等收入群体、改善收入分配格局,是推动共同富裕取得实质性进展的关键。改革开放以来,党和国家始终把扩大中等收入群体作为改善收入分配的重中之重,并清晰地做出战略部署。党的十六大提出“以共同富裕为目标,扩大中等收入者比重,提高低收入者收入水平”,揭示出扩大中等收入群体的消费与经济发展的重要关系;党的十七大指出要实现“合理有序的收入分配格局基本形成,中等收入者占多数”,将扩大中等收入群体与改善收入分配格局联系起来;党的十八届三中全会提出要“努力缩小城乡、区域、行业收入分配差距,逐步形成橄榄型分配格局”,这是党和国家文件中首次明确提出“橄榄型分配格局”的改革目标;党的十九大则进一步将扩大中等收入群体提升到发展战略的高度,将提高“中等收入群体比例”上升为从2020年到本世纪中叶“两步走”发展战略的第一阶段目标,表明党中央对扩大中等收入群体的高度重视;党的十九届四中全会再次明确要规范收入分配秩序,要“保护合法收入,增加低收入者收入,扩大中等收入群体,调节过高收入,清理规范隐性收入,取缔非法收入”;2021年中央财经委员会第十次会议更加明确地提出“合理调节高收入,取缔非法收入,形成中间大、两头小的橄榄型分配结构,促进社会公平正义,促进人的全面发展,使全体人民朝着共同富裕目标扎实迈进”,这实际上是把扩大中等收入群体、形成橄榄型分配格局作为共同富裕的重要标志。在坚持我国社会主义基本经济制度的基础上,扩大中等收入群体,符合我国经济社会发展的基本方向,有助于加快实现共同富裕的战略目标。

Expanding the Middle-income Population Is Conducive to Promoting High-quality Economic Development

扩大中等收入群体有利于促进经济高质量发展

The foundation of common prosperity is “prosperity,” and only the sustained development of economic strength and social productivity can lay down a solid material foundation for the ultimate realization of common prosperity. The increase of the middle-income population can effectively expand consumer demand, thereby stimulating the comprehensive development of society and the economy. The China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Report (2021) shows that residents at different income levels in China have different consumption propensities. The report calculated the average marginal propensity to consume of high-, middle-, and low-income families from 2010 to 2018 as 0.45, 0.71, and 0.37, respectively. That is to say that middle-income families have the highest average marginal propensity to consume, significantly higher than the other two types of families. Therefore, under the premise of stable income growth, expanding the proportion of the middle-income population can release greater consumption potential and add-on effects. A more specific analysis found that the service consumption characteristics of the middle-income population were more obvious. It is the main force for medium and high-end goods demands and service consumption in fields such as education, medical care, leisure, and tourism. It can exert great social consumption potential and stimulate social employment growth and economic development. Among these features, the middle-income population has a greater demand for education and training, and the demand and consumption of education is also an investment in human capital. This will better promote the formation and increase of human capital throughout the whole society, thereby promoting the development of science and technology (S&T) and the improvement of labor productivity, fundamentally promoting high-quality economic development, and consolidating the material foundation for common prosperity.

共同富裕的基础是“富裕”,而只有经济实力和社会生产力的持续发展,才能为最终实现共同富裕提供坚实的物质基础。中等收入群体的增加能够有效扩大消费需求,从而拉动社会经济全面发展。中国宏观经济分析与预测报告(2021)表明,我国不同收入水平居民的消费倾向是不同的,报告计算了2010—2018年间高收入家庭、中等收入家庭和低收入家庭的平均边际消费倾向,分别为0.45、0.71和0.37。也就是说,中等收入家庭的平均边际消费倾向最高,且比较而言明显高于另两类家庭,因此在收入稳定增长的前提下,扩大中等收入群体比重能够释放更大的消费潜力和后劲。更具体的分析发现,中等收入群体的服务型消费特征更为明显,是教育、医疗、休闲、旅游等中高端商品需求和服务消费的主力军,能够极大地发挥社会消费潜力,拉动社会就业增长和经济发展;其中,中等收入群体对教育培训的需求更大,对教育的需求和消费同时也是对人力资本的投资,更能够推动全社会人力资本形成和增加,从而促进科技发展和劳动生产率的提高,从根本上推动经济高质量发展,夯实共同富裕的物质基础。

Expanding the Middle-income Population Is Conducive to Improving China’s Income Distribution Pattern

扩大中等收入群体有利于改善我国收入分配格局

To achieve common prosperity, all people must “commonly” enjoy the fruits of prosperity on the basis of economic “prosperity,” that is, when the majority of people become rich together, the increase in social wealth can benefit the majority of the population. In this, the “olive type” benign social distribution pattern praised by academia and policy research circles has the basic characteristics of being large in the middle and small at both ends. This means the middle-income population accounts for the majority, and the poor and high-income wealthy populations are minorities. In this distribution pattern, most people share the fruits of development. However, our research found that the current distribution pattern in China is not directly shifting to an olive type but is changing from a pyramid type to a gourd type.

要实现共同富裕必须在经济“富裕”的基础上全民“共同”享有富裕的成果,即多数人一起富裕起来,社会财富的增加可以惠及到大多数人群。其中学界和政策研究界公认的良性社会分配格局“橄榄型”,就具有中间大、两头小的基本特点,即中等收入群体占大多数,贫困群体和高收入的富裕群体都占少数。这就是大多数人共享发展成果的分配格局。然而我们研究发现中国目前的分配格局没有直接朝向橄榄型转变,而是正在从金字塔型转变为葫芦型,即我国当前中等收入群体较前期虽有较大幅度的增加,但总体规模还是较小的,距离橄榄型的要求还较远,还有很大的提升空间,其中低收入群体比例还是过大。因此在社会经济发展中,应更加注重将低收入群体收入水平提升到中等收入水平,从而有效扩大中等收入群体规模,对于改善我国收入分配格局起到直接推动作用,进而逐步靠近典型的橄榄型分配格局,以至最终加快转变为理想的橄榄型格局。

This means that, although the current middle-income population in China has increased significantly compared with the previous period, its overall scale is still small. It is still far from the requirements of an olive-shaped distribution, and there is still a lot of room for improvement, such as the fact that the proportion of the low-income population is still too large. Therefore, in social and economic development, more attention should be paid to raising the income level of the low-income population to the middle-income level, so as to effectively expand the scale of the middle-income population. This will directly promote the improvement of China’s income distribution pattern so that it will gradually approach the typical olive-shaped distribution pattern and eventually accelerate the transformation to the ideal olive-shaped pattern.

扩大中等收入群体有利于社会稳定

Expanding the Middle-income Population Is Conducive to Social Stability

中等收入群体通常有稳定丰裕的收入基础和较高社会地位,有相对公平的发展机会,生活比较安定,往往一定意义上是社会主流价值观的代表,是社会稳定发展的基石。所以,当大多数社会成员进入社会中间层而形成橄榄型格局社会,即表明经济发展过程进入可持续状态,社会秩序进入相对稳定的状态,从而能够为扎实推进社会经济持续、稳定发展,并最终实现共同富裕形成良好的社会环境。而一经济体从低收入阶段进入中等收入阶段,再到高收入阶段的经济转型发展过程中,中等收入群体的逐步扩大,能够有效减缓因利益格局调整、价值观念变化带来的一些潜在的不稳定因素,舒缓因贫富差距带来的阶层对立情绪,有助于社会稳定。简言之,中等收入群体的不断增加,意味着贫困群体将逐步占少数,群体间收入差距逐渐缩小,最终实现社会经济公平发展。

The middle-income population usually has a stable and abundant income base, relatively high social status, relatively fair development opportunities, and relatively stable life. In a certain sense, it is often representative of mainstream social values and the cornerstone of social stability and development. Therefore, when most members of society enter the middle layer of society and form an olive-shaped society, it indicates that the process of economic development has entered a sustainable state, and the social order has entered a relatively stable state. In this way, a good social environment can be formed for solidly promoting the sustainable and stable development of the society and economy and ultimately achieving common prosperity. In the process of the economic transformation and development of an economy from a low-income stage to a middle-income stage and then to a high-income stage, the gradual expansion of the middle-income population can effectively alleviate some potential unstable factors caused by the adjustment of interest patterns and the change of values, relieve the class antagonism caused by the gap between the rich and the poor, and contribute to social stability. In short, the constant increase in the middle-income population means that the poor population will gradually account for a minority, the income gap between groups will gradually narrow, and equitable social and economic development will ultimately be achieved.

对我国中等收入群体的测算与收入分配格局的界定

Measurement of China’s Middle-income Population and Definition of Income Distribution Pattern

我国收入分配格局属中等收入群体还较小的葫芦型,距离目标的橄榄型分配格局相差较远。扩大中等收入群体规模的意义重大,需要我们从概念及测度等方面给出较为准确的描述和刻画。基于此前研究,我们认为,中等收入群体不能够完全简单地等同于中等收入阶层或中产阶层。这些概念既有联系又有区别。其中,中等收入阶层或中产阶层这样的术语,更多地反映出职业结构和社会结构的变化,主要使用职业指标或身份标准为主进行测量的,比如通常在发达国家社会中多种专业人士如律师、会计师等,往往被人们认为都属于中产阶级或中等收入阶层,而工人或业主即使收入再高也一般不被认作中产阶层,可见“阶层”是侧重社会学意义上的概念。相对而言,中等收入群体一般是指在一个国家和社会经济体中,按统一的收入水平进行衡量和测算,相对于高收入者和贫困人口来说,其收入水平处于全体居民的中等水平或中间水平周围的人群。换言之,是使用单一收入指标来衡量,测度并反映对应于一定收入标准的人口比重的差异。因而,中等收入群体主要反映全体居民间的收入分配格局的变化。而中等收入群体的扩大,代表着大多数居民的收入水平普遍提高、消费能力的增强以及收入分配差距的改善,是形成理想的橄榄型分配格局的必要条件。因而这是一个侧重经济学意义的概念。诚然,经济学与社会学概念有区别也有交叉和联系,但本文认为在我国目前的语境中,在多数情况下,还是使用中等收入群体这个经济学概念更能够反映实际情况。

The income distribution pattern in China is still a gourd-shaped pattern with a relatively small middle-income population, which is far removed from the target olive-shaped distribution pattern. Expanding the size of the middle-income population is of great significance. This requires us to give more accurate descriptions and characterizations in terms of concepts and measurements. Based on previous research, we believe that the middle-income population cannot be completely and simply equated with the middle-income class or the middle class. These concepts are related but distinct. Among them, terms such as middle-income class or middle class more often reflect changes in occupational structure and social structure. They are mainly measured using occupational indicators or identity standards. For example, in developed countries, many professionals, such as lawyers and accountants, are often considered to belong to the middle class or middle-income class, but workers or proprietors are generally not considered to be middle class, even if their income is high. This shows us that “class” is a concept that emphasizes sociology significance. Relatively speaking, the middle-income population generally refers to a group in a country and society/economy that is measured and calculated according to a unified income level. Compared with high-income people and poor people, their income level is in the middle level of the overall population or around the intermediate level. In other words, a single income indicator is used for measurement. This measures and reflects the differences in the proportions of the population corresponding to certain income standards. Therefore, the middle-income population mainly reflects the changes in the income distribution pattern among all residents. The expansion of the middle-income population represents a general increase in the income level, an increase in spending power, and an improvement in the income distribution gap among the majority of residents. This is a necessary condition for the formation of an ideal olive-shaped distribution pattern. Therefore, it is a concept that emphasizes economic significance. It is true that the concepts of economics and sociology have differences as well as overlaps and connections, but this article believes that in most cases in the current context of China, the economic concept of the middle-income population is better able to reflect the actual situation.

此外,国内外学界就中等收入群体的衡量标准也是有差异的,从而各学者和研究机构得出的结果也相差较大。概括而言,比较普遍的界定方法有绝对标准和相对标准。所谓“绝对标准”是指采用收入数额或支出数额等绝对指标界定中等收入群体。例如,世界银行将中等收入标准确定为人均(成年人)每天收入10—100美元,按1:7的汇率折算人民币,为年收入2.5—25万元。但我国国家发改委社会发展研究所课题组则按人均可支配收入在22000—65000元为标准,测算出我国中等收入群体从2000年的1.62%增长到2010年的21.25%,其中城镇中等收入群体比重约为36.78%,农村中等收入群体比重约为5.75%;另外我国国家统计局曾以每年户均收入10—50万元为标准,测算2017年中国有约1.4亿个家庭共4亿人达标,约占全国总人口的28.6%。这便是近年媒体经常提到的我国中等收入群体约4亿人的来源。抛除测算年份不同这一因素,依旧可以看出各测算标准与结果相差较大。

In addition, domestic and foreign academic circles also have different measurement standards for the middle-income population. Therefore, the results obtained by different scholars and research institutions vary significantly. In general, the more common definition methods include absolute and relative standards. An “absolute standard” refers to the use of absolute indicators such as income or expenditure to define the middle-income population. For example, the World Bank defines the middle-income standard as a per capita (adult) daily income of 10-100 U.S. dollars. Converted into RMB at the exchange rate of 1:7, this is 25,000-250,000 RMB per year. However, based on per capita disposable income of 22,000-65,000 RMB, the research group of the Institute of Social Development of China’s National Development and Reform Commission calculated that the middle-income population in China increased from 1.62 percent in 2000 to 21.25 percent in 2010. The proportion of the urban middle-income population was about 36.78 percent, and the proportion of the rural middle-income population was about 5.75 percent. In addition, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics used an annual average household income of 100,000 to 500,000 RMB as its standard and estimated that, in 2017, there were about 140 million households in China and a total of 400 million people meeting the standard, accounting for about 28.6 percent of the country’s total population. This is the source for the claim that there are about 400 million people in China’s middle-income population that the media has often mentioned in recent years. Aside from the factor of different measurement years, we can still see that the measurement standards and results are quite different.

所谓“相对标准”是指围绕居民收入中位数,设置上下比例作为中等收入群体的标准。由于每年的个人收入中位数都会变动,所以以相对标准划定的中等收入区间也是逐年变化的。例如有学者把城镇居民收入的第95百分位界定为中等收入群体上限,下限则为城镇居民收入的第25百分位,按此标准测得我国城镇中等收入群体在2006年、2008年、2011年和2013年的占比,分别为27%、28%、24%和25%,大致呈下降趋势;另有学者借鉴世界200多个国家使用各年份收入中位数的67%—200%的标准,用作为我国相应年份中等收入群体收入标准的上下限,从而测得2007年、2013年和2016年我国中等收入群体比重分别为20.2%、27.3%和28.9%,是逐步增长的。本文倾向于按学术界大多数人采取的相对标准,以各年居民收入中位数的固定百分比100%—200%作为中等收入群体界定标准,即中位数的100%为中等群体的下限,而中位数的200%为其上限。按此标准进行测算,比如2019年我国全体居民收入的中位数是26523元,那么我国全国总体中等收入群体比重为37.34%,其中城镇居民中等收入者比重约29.25%,农村中约7.39%,也就是说城镇地区集中了我国约80.20%的中等收入群体。这从一个侧面反映了我国城乡居民收入的巨大差距。

A “relative standard” refers to setting the upper and lower percentiles around the median income of residents as the standard for the middle-income population. Since the median personal income changes every year, the middle-income range defined by relative standards also changes year by year. For example, some scholars define the 95th percentile of urban residents’ income as the upper limit of the middle-income population and the lower limit as the 25th percentile of urban residents’ income. According to this standard, the proportion of the urban middle-income population in China in 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2013 were 27 percent, 28 percent, 24 percent, and 25 percent, respectively, showing a general downward trend. Another scholar draws on the standard of 67 percent-200 percent of annual median income for more than 200 countries in the world for the upper and lower limits of the income standard of the Chinese middle-income population in the corresponding years.  In this method, the proportions of the Chinese middle-income population in 2007, 2013, and 2016 were 20.2 percent, 27.3 percent, and 28.9 percent, respectively, a gradual increase. This article prefers the relative standard adopted by most people in academia, using a fixed percentage of 100 percent to 200 percent of the annual median income of residents as the standard for defining the middle-income population. That is, 100 percent of the median is the lower limit of the middle-income population, and 200 percent of the median is the upper limit. According to this standard, for example, the median income of all residents in China in 2019 was 26,523 RMB, so the proportion of the overall middle-income population in China was 37.34 percent. Specifically, the proportion of middle-income people among urban residents was about 29.25 percent, and about 7.39 percent in rural areas. This means that about 80.20 percent of the Chinese middle-income population is concentrated in urban areas. This reflects one aspect of the huge income gap between urban and rural residents in China.

总起来看,不论采取哪种标准测算,也无论总体或城乡分别测算,我国的中等收入群体比重还是比较低的,虽然其发展的趋势是逐步扩大的。因此,当我们综合考察低收入群体、高收入群体、中等收入群体的比重变动,即全部各收入群体的人口比重变动时,可以清晰地发现,我国居民的收入分配格局从改革之初的“飞碟型”转变为“金字塔型”格局后,并没有直接转向理想的“橄榄型”,而逐渐形成大致类似的“葫芦型”,由主、次两个众数组即两个收入群体构成,其中主众数组由低收入者构成,次众数组由中等收入者构成;同低收入者构成众数主体的“金字塔型”不同,与中等收入者为众数组主体的“橄榄型”也不同。“葫芦型”格局是中等收入群体有发展而又发展不足的结果。就是说,是随着经济发展水平逐步提高及衍生出来的新现象,葫芦型的低收入“主众数组”比金字塔型缩小了,从而在中等收入水平上出现一个“次众数组”。这就是我国现阶段居民收入分配格局的基本特征。显然,这样的“葫芦型”格局距离理想的“橄榄型”格局还有较大距离,突出表现为总体上中等收入群体的比重还太小,如果停滞在此种状态就有陷入“中等收入陷阱”的危险。根据发达经济体的经验及理论推导,中等收入群体比重只有达到50%以上,才可能形成较为合理的“橄榄型”分配格局和社会结构。可见,继续努力扩大中等收入群体是今后我国在新发展阶段的重要任务。

In general, no matter which standard is adopted or whether urban and rural areas are measured separately or together, the proportion of the middle-income population in China is still relatively low, although its development trend is gradually expanding. Therefore, when we comprehensively examine the changes in the proportions of the low-income population, high-income population, and middle-income population, that is, the changes in the proportion of the populations of all income groups, we can clearly find that after the income distribution pattern of Chinese residents changed from the “flying saucer” pattern at the beginning of reforms to the “pyramid shape,” it did not directly transition to the ideal “olive shape.” Instead, it gradually formed something similar to a “gourd shape,” consisting of one main and one secondary group, namely two income groups. The main group is composed of low-income people, and the secondary group is composed of middle-income people. This is different from the “pyramid shape” in which low-income people form the majority group, and it is also different from the “olive shape” in which the middle-income population is the majority group. The “gourd-shaped” pattern is the result of the development of the middle-income population, but also its insufficient development. That is to say, with the gradual improvement of the economic development level and the new phenomena derived from it, the gourd-shape low-income “main group” has shrunk compared with the pyramid-shape pattern, so that a “secondary group” appears at the middle-income level. This is the basic feature of China’s current distribution pattern of resident income. Obviously, such a “gourd-shaped” pattern is still far from the ideal “olive-shaped” pattern, which highlights the fact that the proportion of the middle-income population is still too small in general. If we stall in this state, we risk falling into the “middle-income trap.” According to the experience and theoretical conclusions from developed economies, only when the proportion of the middle-income population reaches more than 50 percent can a more reasonable “olive-shaped” distribution pattern and social structure be formed. We can see that continuing to work hard to expand the middle-income population is an important task for China going forward in the new stage of development.

扩大中等收入群体的难点在农村居民收入的提高

The Difficulty of Expanding the Middle-income Population Lies in Increasing the Income of Rural Residents

我国总体收入分配格局呈“葫芦型”,主要原因是二元经济体制导致的过大城乡收入差距(陈宗胜,2015、2020);而过大城乡差距的主要矛盾并不是城镇居民收入过高,而是农村低收入群体的规模过大,即农村居民收入普遍过低。因此,我国今后扩大中等收入群体的难点和重点,就在于乡村振兴过程中持续提高整体农村居民的收入水平,减小低收入群体比重,进而扩大全国中等收入群体。1

China’s overall income distribution pattern is “gourd-shaped,” mainly due to the excessive urban-rural income gap caused by the dual economic system (Chen Zongsheng, 2015, 2020). The main contradiction in the large urban-rural gap is not that the income of urban residents is too high, but that the scale of the rural low-income population is too large, that is, the income of rural residents is generally too low. Therefore, the difficulty and focus of expanding the middle-income population in China in the future lie in continuously improving the income level of rural residents as a whole in the process of rural revitalization and reducing the proportion of the low-income population, thereby expanding the middle-income population in the country. 2

首先,我国城乡差别仍旧过大。经历几十年城市导向的发展之后,农村经济已经成为我国社会发展“不平衡不充分”的主要矛盾所在,城乡居民收入分配长期处于不公平的状态。一是中国各省区城乡差别普遍长期过大。2013年全国31省市城乡收入比平均为2.81,甘肃省最高为3.56,大于3的有6省区,收入比在2—3之间省市有24个;到2019年全国平均2.64,甘肃仍高达3.36,云、贵、甘大于3,比值在2—3范围内的多达27个省市。像北京、上海等最发达地区的城乡收入比也都高达2—3,充分证实我国各大都市周边都被农村低收入带所覆盖。二是我国城乡差距近年有所下降但降幅不大,整体仍处于过大的稳固状态。平均的城乡收入比从2009年达到最高点3.33倍后,到2019年也只下降到2.64。三是过大的城乡差距导致我国总体收入差距持续过大。2000年后我国总基尼系数长期处于0.4到0.5之间,即国际学界公认过大区间,国际排名靠后,而分解分析证实其中城乡间差距长期占总体差距的60%左右,即使到2019年也仍占54%,可见造成我国总差距过大主要原因是城乡间差距过大,缩小城乡差距也是实现共同富裕的首要任务(陈宗胜、杨希雷,2021)。

First of all, the gap between urban and rural areas in China is still too large. After decades of urban-oriented development, the rural economy has become the main contradiction in the “unbalanced and insufficient” social development in China, and the income distribution of urban and rural residents has been in a state of unfairness for a long time. First, the gap between urban and rural areas in China’s provinces has generally been excessively large for a long time. In 2013, the average urban-rural income ratio of 31 provinces and municipalities nationwide was 2.81. The highest was 3.56 in Gansu Province, six provinces and autonomous regions had income ratios greater than 3, and 24 provinces and municipalities had an income ratio between 2 and 3. By 2019, the national average was 2.64. Gansu still had the highest ratio at 3.36, Yunan, Guizhou, and Gansu had ratios greater than 3, and 27 provinces and municipalities had ratios in the 2-3 range. The urban-rural income ratios in the most developed regions such as Beijing and Shanghai are also in the 2-3 range, which offers ample proof that the areas surrounding major Chinese cities are covered by rural low-income belts. Second, the gap between urban and rural areas in China has declined in recent years, but the decline is not large, and overall, the excessive gap is stable. After peaking at 3.33 in 2009, the average urban-rural income ratio only dropped to 2.64 by 2019. Third, the large urban-rural gap has led to a persistently large overall income gap in China. After 2000, China’s total Gini coefficient remained in the 0.4 to 0.5 range for a long time, which is recognized by the international academic community as too large. China’s international ranking is low. The breakdown analysis confirmed that the gap between urban and rural areas accounted for about 60 percent of the overall gap for a long time. Even in 2019, it still accounted for 54 percent. We can see that the main reason for the large gap between urban and rural areas in China is that the gap between urban and rural areas is too large, and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas is also the primary task in achieving common prosperity (Chen Zongsheng and Yang Xilei, 2021).

其次还应当看到,造成我国城乡差距过大这一“主要矛盾”,其根本在于广大农村地区发展相对不足,农村居民收入增长缓慢。其表现,一是人均月收入不足1000元的低收入群体主要分布在农村。2020年5月28日,李克强总理出席十三届全国人大三次会议记者会并回答中外记者提问时指出,我们国家仍有“6亿中低收入及以下人群,他们平均每个月的收入也就1000元左右”。经过我们认真甄别计算,不仅“6亿人月收入不足1000元”是目前国情,且其中4亿人是农村居民。二是农村居民平均收入绝大多数低于全国平均水平。2019年全国居民人均可支配收入为30733元,同年农村中只有20%高收入层略高于此水平,而80%多以下各层次都低于全国平均水平。三是农村各阶层居民收入占全国平均的比重在2013年到2019年中持续下降,其中收入越低家户的下降幅度越大,有80%农户和86%人口的收入占比都不同程度下降了(陈宗胜、杨希雷,2021)。

Secondly, it should be noted that the “main contradiction” that produced the excessive gap between urban and rural areas in China lies in the relative lack of development in the vast rural areas and the slow growth in the income of rural residents. This is shown by the fact that, first, the low-income population with a per capita monthly income of less than 1,000 RMB is mainly distributed in rural areas. On May 28, 2020, when Premier Li Keqiang attended the press conference of the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress and answered questions from Chinese and foreign journalists, he pointed out that there are still “600 million people in the low- and middle-income populations in China, and their average monthly income is only about 1,000 RMB.” After careful screening and calculation, it is not only the case that “600 million people earn less than 1,000 RMB per month” in the current national condition but also that 400 million of them are rural residents. Second, the average income of rural residents is mostly lower than the national average. In 2019, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 30,733 RMB. In the same year, only the top 20 percent high-income population in rural areas was slightly above this level, while more than 80 percent of all people were lower than the national average. Third, the proportion of the income of rural residents in all strata as a share of the national average continued to decline from 2013 to mid-2019. Specifically, the lower the income of households, the greater the decline. The income share of 80 percent of farmers and 86 percent of the population decreased by varying degrees (Chen Zongsheng and Yang Xilei, 2021).

以上分析表明,今后我国扩大中等收入群体的难点、重点就在农村,只有持续快速提高农村居民收入,加快缩小城乡差距,逐步提高人口众多的农村低收入群体的重心,才能有效减少低收入群体比重,相应地便扩大我国中等收入群体规模,从而推动整个社会收入分配从现在的葫芦型格局向橄榄型结构转换。

The above analysis shows that the difficulty and focus of expanding the middle-income population in China going forward will be in rural areas. Only by continuously and rapidly increasing the income of rural residents, accelerating the narrowing of the urban-rural gap, and gradually increasing the focus on the populous rural low-income population can we effectively reduce the proportion of the low-income population. Correspondingly, the scale of the Chinese middle-income population will be expanded, thereby promoting the transformation of the entire social income distribution from its current gourd-shaped structure to an olive-shaped structure.

在乡村振兴中加快提高农村居民收入以扩大中等收入群体

Accelerate the Increase in Rural Residents’ Income to Expand the Middle-income Population in Rural Revitalization

我国农村居民绝大多数属于低收入群体,城乡差距长期处于过大状态,从而导致分配格局呈现葫芦型,其基本根源在于城乡二元制度体制的制约。其中包括二元分配体制的制约,但更重要的是二元发展体制的制约,即长期片面推行城镇经济发展导向的结果。因此在新发展阶段应当逐步从城市发展导向转变为优先乡村振兴发展的战略重点。而且这样的发展是公平发展、均衡发展,是以消除城乡居民收入不公平、二元经济发展不均衡为前提的。可以说,只有消除城乡二元制度,实现二元经济一元化,才能切实提高农村居民收入,真正有效扩大中等群体比重,实质性推进城乡全民共同富裕。为此应当从以下几个方面做出努力:

The vast majority of rural residents in China belong to the low-income population, and the gap between urban and rural areas has been too large for a long time. This has resulted in a gourd-shaped distribution pattern, which is basically rooted in the constraints of the urban-rural dual system. This includes the constraints of the dual distribution system, but more importantly, it includes the constraints of the dual development system, that is, the result of the long-term one-sided implementation of the urban economic development orientation. Therefore, in the new development stage, we should gradually transition from an urban development orientation to a strategic focus that prioritizes rural revitalization and development. Moreover, such development is fair and balanced development. It is based on the premise of eliminating the income inequality between urban and rural residents and the unbalanced development of the dual economy. It can be said that only by eliminating the urban-rural dual system and realizing the unification of the dual economy can we effectively increase the income of rural residents, truly and effectively expand the proportion of the middle-income population, and substantially promote the common prosperity of all urban and rural people. To this end, we must make efforts in the following areas:

加快户籍积分制度改革,在推进乡村振兴中切实推进新型城镇化。加快城镇化是减少农村低收入人口,增加中等收入群体的最有效途径。改革开放以来中国的城镇化率在很长一段时间内以每年超过1个百分点的速度增长,由此带动大量农村人口转入城镇非农就业,从而摆脱了低收入状态。近些年似有下降,2018年以来下降到每年不足1个百分点,致使农村低收入人群下降速度减慢。但是考虑我国农村仍有60%户籍人口,仍超过农业需求;其中包括20%农村户籍所谓“农民工”,实际上进城却是非市民。所以,应当加快改革户籍体制以及改进现行的积分制度,推进农村居民市民化进程。除推动部分现行农村户口低收入人群向现有大中小城市转移外,更重要的是推动农村自身的城镇化、现代化,大力发展服务业、加工业等其他非农产业,推进小城镇产、城、人融合发展,提高农村人口的收入水平。

Accelerate the reform of the household registration points system and effectively promote new urbanization in the promotion of rural revitalization. Accelerating urbanization is the most effective means to reduce the rural low-income population and increase the middle-income population. Since reform and opening up, China’s rate of urbanization has increased at a rate of more than 1 percentage point per year for an extended period. As a result, a large number of rural people have been transferred to urban non-agricultural employment, thus shedding their low-income status. This rate seems to have declined in recent years. Since 2018, it has dropped to less than 1 percentage point per year, which has slowed down the decline of the rural low-income population. However, considering that China’s rural areas still account for 60 percent of the registered population, it still exceeds the demands of the agricultural industry. Among this population, 20 percent are so-called “migrant workers,” who have rural household registrations but actually live in cities as non-residents. Therefore, we must accelerate the reform of the household registration system and improve the current points system so as to promote the urbanization of rural residents. In addition to promoting the transfer of a portion of the low-income population who currently have rural residence permits (户口, hukou) to existing large, medium, and small cities, it is more important to promote the urbanization and modernization of the rural areas themselves, vigorously develop other non-agricultural industries such as the service industry and processing industry, promote the integrated development of the industry, urban space, and people (产、城、人) of small towns, and raise the income level of the rural population.

提升农村居民教育水平,改进农村教育质量。自2015年以后,农村居民可支配收入中的劳动工资收入占比超过经营性收入,成为农村居民收入的最大来源。今后应当进一步提高其比重。而影响农村居民特别是流动人口获取工资性收入的重要因素是人力资本水平,因而对农村居民的教育和培训就成为至关重要的措施。而且要着眼未来进一步提升农村年轻一代的人力资本,必须把更多资源转向农村居民的教育,提高教育质量,切实推动基本义务教育实现均等化。此外,加强农村劳动力业务培训,提高农村劳动力就业技能也是重要一环。

We must raise the educational level of rural residents and improve the quality of rural education. Since 2015, the proportion of labor wage income in the disposable income of rural residents has exceeded that of business operation income, becoming the largest source of income for rural residents. Its proportion should further increase in the future. An important factor that affects how rural residents, and especially the floating population, obtain wage income is the level of human capital. Therefore, the education and training of rural residents have become critical measures. Moreover, in order to further improve the human capital of the younger generation in rural areas in the future, we must direct more resources to the education of rural residents, improve the quality of education, and effectively promote the realization of equalization in basic compulsory education. In addition, strengthening the business training of the rural labor force and improving the employment skills of the rural labor force are also important steps.

提高农村居民经营性收入。近些年来,各种面向“三农”问题的政策效应持续增强,农村居民的劳动收入和经营性收入不断提高,是带动农民收入增长的两大主要源泉。今后仍应积极推进农业供给侧结构性改革,全面落实支农惠农政策措施,加快农业产业结构调整,培育具有竞争力的现代农业经济作物产业体系,培育具有市场竞争优势的名优产品和特色产业,推动现代农业高质量发展,提高农村居民的经营性收入比重。

We must increase the business operating income of rural residents. In recent years, the effects of various policies oriented to “agricultural, farmer, and rural area” issues have continued to increase, and the labor income and business operating income of rural residents have continued to increase. These are the two main sources of income growth for farmers. In the future, we should actively promote supply-side structural reforms for agriculture, fully implement the policies and measures to support and benefit agriculture, accelerate the adjustment of the agricultural industry structure, cultivate a competitive modern agricultural economic crop industry system, cultivate famous products and distinctive industries with market competitiveness, promote the high-quality development of modern agriculture, and increase the proportion of income rural residents earn from business operations.

提高农村居民财产性收入。目前,农村居民财产性收入占比仍处于较低的水平,农村居民人均可支配收入中财产性收入只占2.35%,大大低于城镇居民的10.37%。中央多次强调要提高居民财产性收入及其占比,因此应当在乡村振兴战略中继续深化农村体制综合改革,稳妥推进盘活闲置宅基地和废弃公益性建设用地进入市场,与城镇的技术和资金相结合,盘活村集体闲置或低效使用的集体资产,探索增加农村居民财产性收入的更多渠道。

We must increase the property income of rural residents. Currently, the proportion of rural residents’ property income is still at a relatively low level, and property income only accounts for 2.35 percent of the per capita disposable income of rural residents, much lower than the 10.37 percent of urban residents. The central government has repeatedly emphasized the need to increase residents’ property income and its share of total income. Therefore, we should continue to deepen the comprehensive reform of the rural system in the rural revitalization strategy and steadily promote the revitalization of idle homesteads and abandoned public welfare construction land so that it enters the market, and urban technology and capital. In combination with the technology and capital of cities and towns, we must revitalize the collective assets that are idle or inefficiently used by village collectives and explore more channels to increase the property income of rural residents.

大幅提高农村居民转移性收入。要真正发挥国有经济的全民所有制性质搞好再分配的调节作用,加大城镇和工业向农村农业转移支付的调节力度和精准性,进一步提高农村居民的社会保障水平,使广大农民从公共财力提高中,进一步完善更高水平的农村医疗、养老、失业保障等,从而在生产生活中真正分享到全民所有制的益处,从而自然而然地上升到中等群体,迈向城乡一体的共同富裕。

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陈宗胜 (Chen Zongsheng), 杨希雷 (Yang Xilei). "The Focus and Difficulties of Expanding the Middle-income Population are in Rural Areas [扩大中等收入群体对促进共同富裕的重大意义]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Governance [国家治理], February 14, 2022

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