Original Author: Cai Fang
Economist Cai Fang argues that problems in China’s labor market will hamper efforts to boost productivity in the years ahead. Cai examines the immediate impacts of COVID-19 and its aftermath on the labor market, concluding that as older workers and those in the informal sector exited the workforce, a “large portion of jobs lost to the epidemic cannot be expected to be regained.” In the long term, China will face deeper economic challenges as the growth in new workers slows. In addition, Cai argues that as growth becomes increasingly “innovation-driven,” there will be a surplus of workers who “do not have the human capital required for newly created jobs.”
A prominent scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences argues that addressing barriers to social mobility is key to curbing rising income inequality in China and avoiding the middle income trap. He promotes hukou reform as a potential remedy, advocating for a change in “the method where the supply of public goods treat[s] people differently based on household registration status.”