After the Obama administration took office in 2009, the United States began to rapidly adjust its global strategy, and the Asia-Pacific rebalance became the moniker of the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific strategy. In 2017, Trump entered the White House. The Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy has again become the most important regional strategy of this U.S. government. From the Asia-Pacific rebalance to the Indo-Pacific strategy, what are the similarities and differences in the strategies deployed by the two presidents of the Democratic and Republican parties of the United States for the regions surrounding China? Behind the different names and formulations, what variations and contradictions do these strategies reflect in overall U.S. diplomacy? What enlightenment can the practice of U.S. regional strategy in the past decade bring to China’s diplomacy? As the first term of the Trump administration is about to expire, this article attempts to make a preliminary analysis and provide an answer to these questions.
2009年奥巴马政府上任后,美国开始快速调整其全球战略,“亚太再平衡”成为奥巴马政府亚太战略的标签。2017年,特朗普入主白宫。“自由开放的印太战略”又成为这一届美国政府最重要的区域战略。从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”,美国民主、共和两党的两任总统在中国周边区域所部署的战略有何异同?在不同的名称、提法背后,这些战略反映了美国整体外交的哪些变异与矛盾?过去十年美国区域战略的实践又能给中国外交带来哪些启示?在特朗普政府这一任期即将届满之际,本文尝试对这些问题作出初步的分析与回答。
From Asia-Pacific Rebalancing to Indo-Pacific Strategy
从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”
During his presidential campaign, Barack Obama declared himself the first “president of the Pacific” of the United States. A focus on the Asia-Pacific was a prominent feature of the Obama administration’s diplomatic strategy. However, when discussing the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific strategy, the general consensus in academic and strategic circles is that it basically began in 2011. On October 11, 2011, then-secretary of state Hillary Clinton published an article, “America’s Pacific Century,” in Foreign Policy magazine, emphasizing that “the future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action.” This article is generally regarded as an “overture” to the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance. On November 17 of the same year, then-president Obama delivered a speech at the Australian Parliament. This speech is considered to be an official launch to the United States’ Asia-Pacific rebalancing. According to Obama’s argument, the Asia-Pacific rebalance included several aspects: first, maintaining a strong and modern U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region; second, strengthening relations with regional allies and partnerships and strengthening contacts with regional organizations; third, developing a more cooperative relationship with China; fourth, expanding partnerships through regional trade arrangements; and fifth, establishing partnerships with “emerging democracies” in the region to strengthen domestic governance mechanisms in each country. At the beginning of the launch of the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the Obama administration used the term “pivot” to describe the essence of this strategy; that is, the United States launched the Asia-Pacific rebalance in order to shift the focus of the U.S. global strategy from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region. However, due to concerns about a misinterpretation of this as “abandonment” by the United States of allies in Europe, the Middle East, and other regions, the Obama administration subsequently suspended the “pivot” and concentrated on using the term “rebalancing.” In the years following the launch of the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the Obama administration focused on the military security dimension of “rebalancing,” shifting the U.S. Navy and Air Force to the Asia-Pacific region while also introducing a new operational concept of “air-sea combat.” After entering the administration’s second term, the Asia-Pacific rebalance focused on expanding into economic and social fields, and the five pillars gradually became balanced.
奥巴马在竞选总统期间就曾宣称自己是美国第一位“太平洋总统”。重视亚太是奥巴马政府外交战略的突出特点。不过一般学术界和战略界讨论奥巴马政府的亚太战略,基本上都是从2011年开始的。2011年10月11日,时任美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿在《外交政策》杂志发表文章《美国的太平洋世纪》,强调“未来的政治将由亚洲,而非阿富汗或者伊拉克决定。美国将在行动中处于中心地位”。这篇文章普遍被视为奥巴马政府“亚太再平衡”战略的“序曲”。同年11月17日,时任美国总统奥巴马在澳大利亚国会发表演讲。这次演讲则被认为是美国推出“亚太再平衡”战略的正式标志。按照奥巴马的论述,“亚太再平衡”战略包括几个方面:一是在亚太地区维持强大和现代化的美国军事存在;二是强化与地区盟友和伙伴关系,与地区组织加强接触;三是与中国发展更富合作性的关系;四是通过地区贸易安排扩展经济伙伴关系;五是与地区内“新兴民主国家”建立伙伴关系,强化各国国内治理机制。在“亚太再平衡”战略推出之初,奥巴马政府曾经使用“转向”(Pivot)一词描述这一战略的内涵实质,即美国推出“亚太再平衡”,意在将美国的全球战略重心从中东转移到亚太地区。然而,由于担心欧洲、中东等美国地区盟友产生“被抛弃”的误解,奥巴马政府随后停用了“转向”,并集中使用“再平衡”的提法。在“亚太再平衡”战略推出之后的几年,奥巴马政府主要聚焦于“再平衡”的军事安全维度,将美国的海空军向亚太地区转移,同时推出了“空海一体战”的新作战理念。进入第二任期后,“亚太再平衡”则重点向经济和社会等领域扩展,五大支柱渐趋平衡。
After Trump entered the White House in January 2017, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy replaced the Asia-Pacific rebalance and became the United States’ regional strategy in the vast space from the east coast of the Pacific to the west coast of the Indian Ocean. In terms of geopolitics, German scholar Karl Haushofer proposed the concept of the “Indo-Pacific” as early as the 1920s. In the past decade, leaders and academic circles in Japan, India, Australia, and other countries have begun to use this concept even before the Trump administration took office. In 2011, Hillary Clinton also used the “Indo-Pacific” concept in her article, “America’s Pacific Century.”
2017年1月特朗普入主白宫后,“自由开放的印太”战略取代“亚太再平衡”,成为美国从太平洋东岸到印度洋西岸这一广阔空间内的区域战略。在地缘政治学意义上,德国学者卡尔·霍夫豪斯早在20世纪20年代就提出了“印太”概念。近十年来,日本、印度、澳大利亚等国的领导人和学界在特朗普政府上任前就已经开始使用这一概念。2011年,希拉里·克林顿在《美国的太平洋世纪》一文中也曾使用过“印太”概念。
The Trump administration systematically discussed the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” in its first year in office. On October 18, 2017, then-secretary of state Rex Tillerson gave a speech on U.S.-India relations at the U.S. think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, proposing the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” In November 2017, when President Trump attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, he first proposed that the focus of his government’s Asia-Pacific policy is “a free and open Indo-Pacific.” In December of the same year, the Trump administration issued its first National Security Strategy, including, for the first time, a “free and open Indo-Pacific” as a part of the national strategy. In January 2018, the National Defense Strategy report of the U.S Department of Defense proposed the military dimension of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” When describing the strategic environment facing the United States, the report on the one hand vigorously attacks China’s attempts to reshape the order and seek hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region; on the other hand, the Indo-Pacific is clearly listed as the top of the three major geopolitical priorities for the U.S. military, and the report sends a message to comprehensively enhance the capabilities of the U.S. military in the region. According to the content of the report, “partners” should aim to strengthen relations with regional alliance countries and “promote networked regions,” mainly focusing on the relationship between the United States and regional small and medium-sized countries and regional organizations. In October 2018, U.S. vice president Mike Pence delivered a speech on China policy, using the Free and Open Indo-Pacific as one of several measures to deal with China’s rise, and he did not shy away from linking the Indo-Pacific strategy with the response to China’s rise. In June 2019, the U.S. Department of Defense released its Indo-Pacific Strategy report. In December of the same year, the U.S. State Department released its report on the region. Compared with the military’s Indo-Pacific Strategy report, the U.S. State Department’s report particularly emphasizes regional economic and trade relations. These strategic documents and leaders’ speeches systematically outline the main content of the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
特朗普政府自上任后第一年就开始系统地论述“印太战略”。2017年10月18日,时任美国国务卿蒂勒森在美国智库战略与国际问题研究中心针对美印关系发表演讲,提出“自由开放的印太”概念。 2017年11月,特朗普总统在越南岘港参加亚太经济合作组织(APEC)峰会时首次提出其政府的亚太政策焦点是“自由开放的印太”。同年12月,特朗普政府出台了第一份美国《国家安全战略》,首次将“自由开放的印太”写入国家战略。2018年1月,美国国防部《国防战略报告》提出了“自由开放的印太”的军事维度。报告在描述美国面临的战略环境时,一方面大肆攻击中国试图重塑印太地区秩序,寻求印太地区霸权;另一方面明确将印太列为美军三大地緣政治重点之首,并传递出全面提升美军在该地区能力的信息。根据报告内容,“伙伴”旨在强化与地区同盟国家关系,“推进网络化的区域”主要关注美国与区域中小国家、区域组织之间的关系。2018年10月,美国副总统彭斯发表对华政策演讲,将“自由开放的印太”作为应对中国崛起的几个手段之一,毫不避讳地将“印太战略”与应对中国崛起联系在一起。2019年6月,美国国防部发布其“印太战略”报告。同年12月,美国国务院发布其“印太战略”报告。与军方的“印太战略”报告相比,美国国务院的报告特别强调了地区经济和贸易关系。这些战略文件和领导人讲话,比较系统地勾勒了特朗普政府“印太战略”的主要内容。
To observe the direction of U.S. diplomatic strategy, we should observe the continuity of the United States in this region over the past decade. After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. global strategy lacked a clear sense of direction. On the one hand, the Bush and Clinton administrations continued to handle Russia’s relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe and expanded the dividends of the Cold War with NATO’s eastward expansion; on the other hand, they participated in and launched several wars to deal with sudden crises in the Middle East and Central and Eastern Europe. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the sudden escalation of the fight against terrorism gave clarity and focus to the U.S. global strategy. However, the heavy costs of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the successive rise of some emerging market economies made the Obama administration realize that the U.S. global strategy must be adjusted. The Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance signified that the United States had begun to make up its mind to adjust its global strategic focus. The Trump administration’s internal affairs and foreign affairs can be described as “Obama policies in reverse,” but its understanding of the global strategic focus is as clear as that of the Obama administration. From the perspective of geographic scope, there are certain differences between the Asia-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific, but their degree of overlap is quite high. What’s more, during the Bush and Obama administrations, the relationship between the United States and India had been improving. The Indo-Pacific strategy is in the same line as the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance in terms of strategic focus, highlighting the shift of the U.S. global strategic focus to China’s surrounding regions and to maintaining strong continuity. With the imminent conclusion of the Trump administration’s first term, it has been more than 10 years since the United States shifted its global strategic focus. Judging from the strategic recognition, planning, and actions of the United States, this shift was a foregone conclusion. Regardless of the final outcome of the 2020 U.S. election, the U.S. global strategy centered on the Indo-Pacific is bound to continue.
观察美国外交战略的走向,应当从过去十年美国在这一区域的连续性来看。冷战结束后,美国的全球战略一度缺少了明确的方向感。老布什和克林顿政府一方面继续在欧洲方向处理俄罗斯同北约的关系,借助北约东扩扩大冷战红利;另一方面则通过参与和发动几场战争,处理中东、中东欧等地区的突发危机。21世纪初,反恐斗争的骤然升级使美国的全球战略明确了方向和重心,但是伊拉克、阿富汗两场战争的沉重代价和一些新兴市场国家的相继崛起,让奥巴马政府认识到美国的全球战略必须调整。奥巴马政府提出“亚太再平衡”标志着美国开始下定决心去调整全球战略重心。特朗普政府在内政外交诸多领域可谓“逢奥必反”,但是其对全球战略重心的认识如奥巴马政府一样鲜明。从地理范围角度看,“亚太”与“印太”固然有一定差别,但其重合度是相当高的。更何况,在小布什、奥巴马政府时期,美国与印度的关系已经在不断升级。“印太战略”在战略重点上与奥巴马政府的“亚太再平衡”一脉相承,凸显美国全球战略重心向中国周边区域转移并保持了很强的连续性。在特朗普政府这一任期即将结束之际,美国全球战略重心的转移已经超过十年。从美国方面的战略认知、战略规划以及战略部署来看,这一转移已成定局。无论2020年美国大选最终结局如何,美国全球战略以“印太”为重心的态势必将延续下去。
From a strategic point of view, from Asia-Pacific rebalance to the Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States has always attempted to manage and control the strategic situation in this region. From the perspective of U.S. global strategy, the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific are the only regions where the past two presidents of the United States have put forward a complete strategic vision in the past decade. Regardless of the final effect, Democratic and Republican governments have attempted to unite the United States’ allies, partner countries, and other countries in the region and comprehensively use policy tools in various fields such as the military, diplomacy, and economics to achieve its strategic goals. This shift in the U.S. strategic focus is of course directly related to the rise of China, but both the Obama administration and the Trump administration have avoided “single fights” with China on paper. It has instead become the bipartisan consensus of the United States to win over China’s neighboring countries to join together against China. Due to China’s growing influence in the surrounding areas, China’s periphery has naturally become a stage for Sino-U.S. games and competition. The relationships between China, the United States, and China’s neighboring countries will remain the main focus of future Sino-U.S. strategic games.
从战略手法上看,从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”,美国始终力图在区域层面来管控这一地区的战略态势。从美国的全球战略看,亚太和印太地区是过去十年美国两任总统都提出完整的战略构想的唯一地区。无论最后效果如何,民主党和共和党政府均试图团结美国在这一地区的盟友、伙伴国以及其他国家,并且综合运用军事、外交、经济等多个领域的政策工具来实现其战略目标。美国战略重心转移当然与中国崛起直接相关,但奥巴马政府和特朗普政府都在“纸面”上避免与中国“单打独斗”,拉拢中国周边国家联手对华已成为美国两党共识。由于中国在周边地区的影响力越来越大,中国周边很自然地变成了中美博弈与竞争的舞台。中美两国与中国周边国家的关系,将成为未来中美战略博弈的主要内容。
Differences and Variations between the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Asia-Pacific Rebalancing
“印太战略”与“亚太再平衡”的区别与变异
Although the U.S. strategy in this region has shown considerable continuity from Asia-Pacific rebalancing to Indo-Pacific strategy, a careful comparison of the two strategies still reveals subtle and important differences.
从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”,美国在这一区域的战略尽管呈现了相当强的延续性,但是仔细比较两个战略,仍有着微妙而重要的差别。
First, from the perspective of strategic design, the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance can be said to be a regional strategy that embeds the United States’ China strategy, while the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy is a regional strategy that treats China as a target for confrontation. Compared with the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the intentions of this Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at China are more obvious and explicit. When the Obama administration proposed the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the strategic circles of various countries, especially those of China, believed it had obvious intentions against China. After the launch of the strategy, the U.S. government sent diplomats and scholars to communicate with China on many occasions to convey the message that Asia-Pacific rebalance was not specifically aimed at China. In previous official strategic announcements, the U.S. government has also deliberately emphasized that the Asia-Pacific rebalance does not exclude or target China. In his speech to the Australian Parliament, Obama specifically made “development of a more cooperative relationship with China” one of the five pillars of Asia-Pacific rebalancing. In practice, during the two terms of the Obama administration, China and the United States have indeed carried out effective cooperation on topics such as the North Korean nuclear issue, climate change, and World Trade Organization reforms. Of course, under the guidance of the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the power of the U.S. military has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and the United States has used the South China Sea issue to instigate China’s neighboring countries into laying “siege” to China. For instance, the active involvement of the United States in Myanmar’s domestic political changes and other such actions make it hard for China to dispel its doubts. In contrast, the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy does not even have the guise of its predecessor. In its various strategic documents, the Trump administration has not clearly stated whether the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy includes China. The absence of this statement seems to imply that the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy does not include China. This situation did not change until the end of 2019. In December 2019, the U.S. State Department issued a report titled “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Advancing a Shared Vision”, stating that this strategy “does not exclude any country.” That same month, U.S. secretary of defense Mark Esper stated in a speech in Hanoi, Vietnam, that “the Indo-Pacific strategy extends to all nations, including China.” Considering that in the Indo-Pacific strategy announced by the Trump administration, every mention of the “rise of China,” “China threat,” and Belt and Road Initiative serve as a basic premise for the proposal of this strategy, the statements made by the U.S. State Department and Esper are, unfortunately, merely a form of diplomatic rhetoric or a theoretical possibility.
第一,从战略设计层面看,奥巴马政府的“亚太再平衡”战略可以说是将美国对华战略内嵌其中的地区战略,而特朗普政府的“印太战略”则是将中国作为对抗目标的地区战略。相比于“亚太再平衡”,“印太战略”针对中国的意图更加明显和露骨。奥巴马政府提出“亚太再平衡”时,各国战略界特别是中国学界就认为“亚太再平衡”针对中国的意图明显。在“亚太再平衡”战略推出后,美国政府还曾经多次派出外交官和学者与中方交流,传递“‘亚太再平衡并不专门针对中国”的信息。在历次官方战略宣示中,美国政府也都刻意强调,“亚太再平衡”不排除中国、不针对中国。奥巴马在澳大利亚国会的演讲中,特别将“与中国发展更富合作性的关系”作为“亚太再平衡”的五根支柱之一。在实践中,中美两国在奥巴马政府的两个任期内,也确实围绕朝核、气候变化、世贸组织改革等议题展开了有效合作。当然,在“亚太再平衡”战略指导下,美国军事力量向亚太地区转移,美国利用南海问题策动中国周边国家“围攻”中国,美国积极介入缅甸国内政局变化等行动,不可能使中国消除疑虑。相比之下,特朗普政府的“印太战略”则连前任那样的“遮掩”都没有。特朗普政府在其各项战略文件中,都没有明确表示“自由开放的印太战略”是否包括中国。这种表态的缺位似乎暗示美国的“印太战略”并不包含中国。这一局面直到2019年年底才发生变化。2019年12月,美国国务院发布《印太战略报告》,表示这一战略“不排斥任何国家”;同月,美国国防部长埃斯珀在越南河内演讲时表示,“‘印太战略包括中国在内的所有国家。” 考虑到在特朗普政府宣示的“印太战略”中,几乎每次都把“中国崛起”“中国威胁”“一带一路”倡议等作为提出这一战略的基本背景,美国国务院和埃斯珀的表态,恐怕更多还是一种外交辞令或者理论上的可能性。
At the same time, in the process of promoting the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the Obama administration placed special emphasis on a “free, rules-based order.” This formulation, of course, includes intentions directed at China, implying that China “does not abide by the rules” on issues such as the South China Sea. This formulation, however, is generally more neutral. After all, “rules-based” is a term with relatively ambiguous values. Although the term “liberal” has a strong ideological color, this term mainly refers to the “liberal international order” often mentioned in Western strategic circles. Although this set of terms has not been adopted by China, the so-called “liberal international order” in the West basically overlaps with the “existing international order” in China. In the past four decades, China has made tremendous progress within this international order and on the premise of abiding by international rules. Chinese officials also use the term “rules-based order.” In contrast, the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy focuses on the two concepts of “freedom” and “openness.” According to the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report issued by the U.S. Department of Defense, “free” means that all countries in the region can exercise their sovereignty without interference from other countries and implement “good governance” at home to protect human rights. “Openness” mainly means that all countries can enter international waters, airspace, and cyberspace and enter other countries’ markets in a fair and reciprocal manner. The color of this formulation against China is much more obvious, and its orientation includes not only China’s foreign policy, but also China’s domestic system.
与此同时,奥巴马政府在推动“亚太再平衡”的过程中,特别强调“自由的、基于规则的秩序”。这一提法当然包含针对中国的意图,暗指中国在南海等问题上“不遵守规则”,但是这一提法总体比较中性。毕竟,“基于规则”是一个价值观色彩相对不明显的词汇。“自由”(liberal)一词虽然有较强的意识形态色彩,但是这一词汇在此主要指西方战略界经常讲的“自由主义国际秩序”。这套术语虽然并不被中国方面采纳,但是西方所谓“自由主义国际秩序”基本上与中国所说的“现存国际秩序”存在很大的重合性。过去四十年,中国正是在这套国际秩序之内、在遵守國际规则的前提下取得了巨大发展。中国官方同样也使用“基于规则的秩序”这一提法。相比之下,特朗普政府的“印太战略”聚焦“自由”和“开放”两个概念。按照美国国防部发布的《印太战略报告》,“自由”(free)意指地区内的所有国家可以施行各自的主权,不受其他国家干扰;在国内实施“良治”,保护人权。“开放”则主要指各国均可以进入国际水域、空域和网络空间,并以公平、对等的方式进入他国市场。这种提法针对中国的色彩则要明显得多,而且其指向性不仅包括中国的对外政策,也同样包括中国的国内体制。
Second, from the perspective of strategic implementation, Asia-Pacific rebalancing is a relatively typical regional strategy, while the Free and Open Indo-Pacific can be described as a major power confrontation strategy that “acts” as a regional strategy. This difference is actually the difference between the overall diplomatic philosophy and diplomatic nature of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party of the United States: The Democratic Party of the United States prefers multilateralism and regionalism, while the Republican Party is more inclined to unilateralism. Under the guidance of the Asia-Pacific rebalance, the Obama administration not only strengthened its relationship with its five allies in the Asia-Pacific region, but, in addition, they used the South China Sea and other issues to effectively mobilize some Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members to actively participate in an East Asian regional cooperation mechanism centered around ASEAN. In addition to the dimension of military security, the Obama administration actively participated in regional economic liberalization arrangements during its second term, accelerating, leading, and basically completing negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In contrast, the Indo-Pacific strategy has effectively mobilized large or medium regional powers such as Japan, India, and Australia. The restart of the Quad composed of these three countries and the United States is the most obvious institutionalized achievement under the framework of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Under the leadership of the United States, the Quad formed against China has become increasingly extreme, and their dialogues have been elevated to the ministerial level. From 2017 to 2019, the four countries held five rounds of dialogs. In 2020, the Quad invited New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic. The United States, Japan, and India may also invite Australia to participate in the 2020 Malabar military exercise, thereby creating a four-nation military exercise mechanism. However, compared with the Obama administration, the Trump administration has obviously not paid enough attention to the small and medium-sized countries in the region and the regional mechanism centered on ASEAN. In 2019, the United States only sent Robert O’Brien, its national security adviser, to participate in the East Asia Summit. This has become a typical example of the United States not paying attention to ASEAN and regional mechanisms. In addition, in the field of economics, the Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the TPP immediately after taking office, abandoning the most important economic achievement of the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalancing. At the same time, the United States is not a negotiator of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which means that the United States has lost its grip on the regional economic platform. In the past four years, the United States has mainly conducted trade negotiations with regional countries on bilateral platforms, such as amending the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement with South Korea and signing the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, obviously lacking enthusiasm for regional economic arrangements.
第二,从战略执行层面看,“亚太再平衡”是一个比较典型的地区战略,而“自由开放的印太”则可谓是一个“佯装”为地区战略的大国对抗战略。这种差别实际上也是美国民主党和共和党整体外交哲学和外交理念的差别:美国民主党相对偏重多边主义和区域主义,而共和党更加倾向于单边主义。在“亚太再平衡”战略指导下,奥巴马政府不仅与其亚太地区的五个盟友强化了关系,而且也利用南海等问题比较有效地动员了部分东盟国家,并积极参与了以东盟为核心的东亚地区合作机制。除军事安全维度外,奥巴马政府第二任期积极介入地区经济自由化安排,加速、主导并基本完成了《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)谈判。相比之下,“印太战略”比较有效地动员了日、印、澳等区域内大国或中等强国。这三个国家与美国组成的“四国机制”(Quad)的重启是“印太战略”框架下最明显的机制化成果。在美国的牵引下,针对中国的“四国机制”日益极致化,对话已升级到部长级。2017—2019年,四国举行了五轮对话。2020年,“四国机制”又邀请新西兰、韩国和越南一起讨论新冠肺炎疫情。美、日、印还有可能邀请澳大利亚参加2020年的“马拉巴尔”军事演习,从而打造一个四国军演机制。然而,与奥巴马政府时期相比,特朗普政府对地区内的中小国家以及以东盟为核心的地区机制明显不够重视。2019年,美国甚至只派出国家安全事务助理奥布莱恩参加东亚峰会,这成为美国不重视东盟和地区机制的一个典型事例。此外,在经济领域,特朗普政府上任伊始就宣布退出TPP,放弃了奥巴马政府“亚太再平衡”最重要的经济成果。同时美国也不是《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的谈判方,这也就意味着美国在区域经济平台上失去了抓手。过去四年,美国主要在双边平台上与地区国家展开贸易谈判,例如与韩国修订了《美韩自贸协定》、与日本签订了《美日自贸协定》,对区域经济安排显然缺乏热情。
Third, judging from the impact of the implementation of relevant U.S. strategies, countries in the region other than China have also had subtle differences in their responses to the strategies implemented by the two presidents of the United States. On the whole, countries in the region were more accepting of the Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance. In the security field, cooperation between the United States and several of its allies, as well as India and Vietnam, is deepening, and the United States has used the South China Sea issue to attract some small and medium-sized countries in the region. In the economics field, TPP negotiations have attracted the attention and support of many countries in the region. Of course, these countries must attempt to strike a balance between China and the United States while “pulling the United States in to stay” so as to balance China. Therefore, during the Obama administration, these countries adopted an attitude of “a welcoming heart and cautious words” toward the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy. In contrast, countries in the region have adopted “welcoming words and a complicated heart” toward the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. At the level of rhetoric and documents, the “enthusiasm” of regional countries for the Indo-Pacific strategy seems to have surpassed the Asia-Pacific rebalance. One notable indicator is that Japan, India, Australia, and ASEAN have all echoed the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States in different forms. At the same time, however, Japan has attempted to avoid linking its Indo-Pacific strategy with the confrontation between China and the United States. Australia’s Indo-Pacific strategy places particular emphasis on the role of ASEAN in relevant waters. India has incorporated diplomatic traditions such as “strategic autonomy” into its Indo-Pacific strategy. In its ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook report, ASEAN emphasized the ASEAN-centric multilateral security architecture and the role of ASEAN in connecting all countries in the region. Obviously, while these countries are actively responding to the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, they have also been affected by the Trump administration’s America First strategic orientation. They feel the impact of the confrontations between China and the United States, as “where the elephants fight, the grasslands suffer,” and many are deeply worried about the possibility of the original regional mechanism being split and marginalized.
第三,从美国相关战略实施后产生的影响看,除中国以外的其他区域国家对美国两任总统所推行战略的反应有着微妙的不同。总体来看,区域国家对奥巴马政府的“亚太再平衡”接受度更高。在安全领域,美国与其几个盟友以及印度、越南的合作都在深化;美国借助南海问题拉拢了一些地区中小国家;在经济领域,TPP的谈判受到了地区内不少国家的关注和支持。当然,这些国家在把美国“拉进来、留下来”以平衡中国的同时,也努力在中美之间保持平衡。因此,这些国家在奥巴马政府时期对“亚太再平衡”战略呈现了一种“内心欢迎、言辞谨慎”的态度。相比之下,地区国家对特朗普政府的“印太战略”则呈现一种“言辞欢迎、内心复杂”的态度。在言辞和文件层面,地区国家对“印太战略”的“热情”似乎还超过了“亚太再平衡”。一个突出表现就是日本、印度、澳大利亚和东盟都分别以不同形式呼应了美国的“印太战略”。但同时,日本却极力避免将其“印太战略”与中美对抗联系起来;澳大利亚的“印太战略”特别强调东盟在相关海域的作用;印度则将“战略自主”等外交传统纳入其“印太战略”之中。东盟在其《东盟印太展望》报告中则强调以东盟为中心的多边安全架构,以及东盟在地区所有国家之间的连通作用。显然,这些国家在积极呼应美国“印太战略”的同时,也对特朗普政府“美国优先”的战略取向、对中美“大象打架、草地遭殃”的影响、对原有地区机制被分裂和被边缘化的可能性保持着深深的忧虑。
Contradictions and Revelations from the U.S. Regional Strategy
美国地区战略的矛盾与启示
From Asia-Pacific rebalancing to the Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S. regional strategy has always had a deep internal contradiction: this is the same contradiction between the U.S. regional strategy and the U.S. strategy toward China. The Indo-Pacific region is a rapidly rising highland in the transfer of world power, and in this highland China stands out as the most prominent peak. The goal of the U.S, regional strategy is to determine whether to adapt to this increasingly important region first or to rather respond to the challenges brought about by the rise of China. From the official discourse of the United States, both are of course the starting point for the U.S. government when formulating its strategy, but there will inevitably be the question of which is first and which is of most importance. The Obama administration’s Asia-Pacific rebalance seemed to focus more on the importance of the region. However, under this strategic design and strategic layout, U.S. policymakers seemed to think that they cannot effectively deal with the rise of China. The Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy seems to come from a perspective of dealing with China, but such a strategic design and layout will give regional countries the impression that the United States is building an “anti-China alliance.” This, in turn, has stirred doubt among regional countries as to the merits of supporting and cooperating with the U.S. strategy, leading to a failure of the U.S. “regional response to China” mentality. On the whole, the history of Asia-Pacific rebalancing and the Indo-Pacific strategy over the past decade may bring us several revelations.
从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”,美国地区战略始终具有一个深刻的内在矛盾:这就是美国区域战略与美国对华战略之间的矛盾。印太地区是世界权力转移中快速上升的高地,而在这片高地当中,中国又是最突出的尖峰。美国区域战略的目标,究竟首先是要适应这个重要性日益上升的区域,还是去因应中国崛起所带来的挑战?从美国官方论述看,两者当然都是美国政府制定战略的出发点,但是其中又不可避免地会有一个何者为先、何者为重的问题。奥巴马政府的“亚太再平衡”战略看起来更多的是从区域的重要性来考虑问题,但是在这一战略设计和战略布局之下,美国决策者似乎认为无法有效地应对中国的崛起。特朗普政府的“印太战略”似乎更多的是从应对中国的角度出发,但是这样的战略设计与布局就会给区域国家造成一种美国正在打造“反华同盟”的印象,从而又导致区域国家在支持和配合美国战略时的疑虑上升,进而造成美国以“区域应对中国”思路的失败。总体上看,过去十年“亚太再平衡”与“印太战略”的实践,或许可以为我们带来几条启示。
First, the U.S. regional strategic center has been shifted, and this shift has also won the support of several countries around China—to a certain extent. In the past few years, China-U.S. strategic competition and even strategic confrontation have increasingly become the most prominent and core contradiction in contemporary international relations. Against this background, the shift of the U.S. global strategic focus to China’s periphery has become irreversible. Of note is that this shift of the U.S. global strategy has to a certain extent obtained the support and cooperation of some countries around China. It is a relatively common psychology for neighboring countries to use the United States to balance China and the certainty that existing powers can bring to balance the uncertainty brought about by rising powers. We should have a clear understanding of this.
第二,美国区域战略的落实有限,我们应当保持战略自信。从过去的实践看,美国实施战略的能力一般达不到预期。无论是“亚太再平衡”还是“印太战略”,都存在“雷声大、雨点小”的情况。限制美国战略实施的因素很多。首先,美国两党制的政治体制以及近二十年来美国国内政治极化的状况,造成了美国对外战略的摇摆,影响到其战略的连贯性。其次,美国自身的能力有限。美国虽然号称是印太或者亚太国家,但是在地理上距离这一地区十分遥远,其向这个地区投放的资源是有限的。无论是“亚太再平衡”还是“自由开放的印太”,都是军事色彩过强,缺乏足够的经济和社会支撑。最后,中国周边国家并不愿意在中美之间选边站队,因为这不符合其国家利益。在过去十年“中国—美国—地区国家”三边互动过程中,我们逐渐看清了周邊相关国家在中美之间的真实态度。
Second, the implementation of the U.S. regional strategy is limited, and we should maintain strategic confidence. Judging from past practice, the ability of the United States to implement strategies generally falls short of expectations. Whether in terms of the Asia-Pacific rebalance or the Indo-Pacific strategy, “though the thunder roars loudly, little rain will fall.” There are many factors restricting the implementation of the U.S. strategy. First of all, the two-party political system of the United States and its domestic political polarization over the past two decades have caused a pendulum swing in U.S. foreign strategy, affecting its coherence. Second, the United States’ own capabilities are limited. Although the United States is known as an Indo-Pacific or Asia-Pacific country, it is geographically isolated from this region, and the resources it invests in this region are limited. Whether it is the Asia-Pacific rebalance or the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, the U.S. military is stretched thin, and it lacks sufficient economic and social support. Last, China’s neighboring countries are reluctant to choose sides between China and the United States because this is not in their national interests. In the course of the trilateral interaction of China, the United States, and regional countries over the past decade, we have gradually seen the true attitudes of neighboring countries between China and the United States.
第三,中国与周边国家关系如何,是决定美国区域战略成效的主要变量。美国“亚太再平衡”和“自由开放的印太”战略能够取得一定进展,除了周边国家在地区权力结构上需要美国之外,一个更为具体的原因就是中国与部分周边国家关系存在一些需要解决的问题。这些问题为美国施行其地区战略提供了可乘之机。当前,最为突出的问题就是中国与南海声索国之间、中国与印度之间的海洋和领土权益争议等。如果这些问题未来能够在一定程度上解决或者降温,美国的“印太战略”对中国造成的负面影响就会不断降低。在美国全面遏制中国的情况下,改善中国与周边国家的关系,不使其变成美对华打压的舞台和前哨,就必然成为中国对外关系的重要任务。