In a televised address on the morning of February 24, Russian president Putin announced that a special military operation was being launched in the Donbas region, but said that there were no plans to occupy Ukraine. Some hours later that day, President Zelensky of the Ukraine announced that Ukraine and Russia were severing diplomatic relations. At this point, Russian and Ukrainian swords have crossed.
俄罗斯总统普京2月24日清晨发表电视讲话,宣布在顿巴斯地区发起特别军事行动,但表示并无占领乌克兰的计划。乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚些时候宣布,乌克兰与俄罗斯断绝外交关系。至此,俄乌刀兵相见。
Unlike many other war scenarios since World War II, this war is being waged by two countries with Slavic ethnic majorities. It should be said that the Ukraine issue has a complex historical context, and the evolution of the situation up to the present is the result of the combined effect of various factors. Some sober strategists believe it is NATO’s eastward expansion, in which the United States and the West have continued the Cold War mentality, that has triggered the Ukraine crisis.
与二战后许多战争场景不同,此次战争在两个以斯拉夫民族为主体的国家展开。应当说,乌克兰问题有其复杂的历史经纬,局势演变至今是各种因素共同作用的结果。一些清醒的战略界人士认为,美西方延续冷战思维的北约东扩,是引爆此次乌克兰危机的罪魁祸首。
1. Ukrainian-Russian friendship has been the main current for a thousand years
1. 千年来俄乌友好是主流
The Slavs are a Eurasian ethnic group, divided into Eastern Slavs, Western Slavs, and Yugoslavs. The ethnic majorities of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are all Eastern Slavs.
斯拉夫人是欧亚大陆上的一个民族,按地域分为东斯拉夫、西斯拉夫和南斯拉夫,现今的俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、乌克兰的主体民族都属于东斯拉夫人。
Around the 10th century A.D., Eastern Slav tribes combined to form the ancient Rus tribe. In order to change a fragmented situation of internal strife, the Eastern Slavs recruited the Varangian chieftain Rurik from Northern Europe to come reign in Novgorod, between present day St. Petersburg and Moscow. In the year 862, Eastern Slavs in Novgorod established the first Rus kingdom—the Rurik dynasty. Afterward, Grand Duke Rurik continued to penetrate inland, gaining control over some cities along the banks of the Dnieper River, including Kiev. The Varangians established a Slavic kingdom and started to Slavicize themselves. After Rurik died in 879, his successor, Oleg, led the Varangians in taking Kiev, then conquered several neighboring regions and established the Duchy of Rus, with Kiev as its capital. This was known in history as the “Kievan Rus,” or ancient Rus.
公元10世纪前后,东斯拉夫各部落结合形成古罗斯部族。为改变一盘散沙的内斗局面,东斯拉夫人从北欧找来了瓦良格人首领留里克,入主今天位于莫斯科和圣彼得堡之间的诺夫哥罗德。862年,东斯拉夫人在诺夫哥罗德建立了第一个罗斯王国——留里克王朝。此后,诺夫哥罗德大公留里克继续深入内陆,控制了包括基辅在内的一些第聂伯河沿岸城市。他们建立了斯拉夫国家,自身也开始斯拉夫化。879年,留里克去世后,继任者奥列格率领着瓦良格人在882年占领了基辅,又陆续征服了一些周边地区,建立了以基辅为首都的罗斯公国,史称“基辅罗斯”,或古罗斯。
Thus, tracing the history of Russian and Ukrainian nations and peoples, there is no doubt that they are inextricably linked. On this point, China’s famous scholar and author of the book History of Russia, Zhang Jianhua, sees Kievan Rus, the Tsarist Empire, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Republic as a heritage relationship, included in the “general history of Russia.”
由此追溯俄罗斯、乌克兰两个国家和民族的历史,无疑有着千丝万缕的联系。关于这一点,我国著名历史学家、《俄国史》一书作者张建华就将基辅罗斯与沙俄帝国、苏联和俄联邦视为传承关系,纳入“俄国通史”中。
Between the 12th and 14th centuries, the fragmented ancient Rus tribe split into three branches—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarussians. From the14th century, Ukrainians began to break away from ancient Rus, forming a single nation with a unique language, culture and living customs.
12—14世纪,封建割据的古罗斯部族逐渐分裂成俄罗斯人﹑乌克兰人和白俄罗斯人3个分支。从14世纪起,乌克兰人开始脱离古罗斯而形成具有独特语言﹑文化和生活习俗的单一民族。
In 1648, unable to bear Polish-Lithuanian rule, Ukrainian Cossacks launched a major uprising, which was suppressed by the Polish army. In 1654, the Ukrainian Cossack leader Bohdan Khmelnytsky asked Russia for protection and signed the Pereyaslav Agreement with the Russian Tsar, who was invited to rule Eastern Ukraine. At that time, Eastern Ukraine, located on the left bank of the Dnieper River, was officially merged with the Russian Empire, starting a period of alliance between Ukraine and Russia. Within the Empire as a whole, Russians generally called themselves “Great Russia” and accounted for 44%, while Ukraine was called “Little Russia” and accounted for 18%.
1648年,乌克兰的哥萨克人不堪忍受波兰-立陶宛的统治,爆发大起义,遭到波兰军队镇压。1654年,审时度势的乌克兰哥萨克领袖赫梅利尼茨基请求俄罗斯保护,与俄国沙皇签订《佩列亚斯拉夫和约》,商请沙皇来统治东乌克兰。自此,位于第聂伯河左岸的东乌与俄罗斯帝国正式合并,开启乌克兰和俄罗斯结盟期。整个帝国境内,俄罗斯人一般自称为“大俄罗斯”,占44%,而称乌克兰为“小俄罗斯”,占18%。
In 1954, to celebrate the “300th anniversary of the fraternal alliance between Ukraine and Russia,” Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev led the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR to pass a resolution giving the Crimean Peninsula, which had been included in the Russian Empire in 1783, from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Republic as a “symbol of eternal friendship.” At the time, both Russia and Ukraine were both republics of the Soviet Union. In the final analysis, Crimea’s change of territory was carried out within one country, and did not make any big waves.
为庆祝“乌克兰与俄罗斯兄弟结盟300周年”,时任苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫1954年主导苏联最高苏维埃主席团通过决议,将早在1783年就被纳入俄罗斯帝国版图的克里米亚半岛从俄罗斯苏维埃社会主义联邦共和国手中作为“恒久友谊的象征”赠给乌克兰共和国。当时,俄罗斯和乌克兰都是苏联加盟共和国,归根到底克里米亚的版图变迁是在一个国家内进行的,并未掀起大的波澜。
In the late 18th century, the Polish-Lithuanian kingdom became a vassal state of the Russian Empire. At the end of the 18th century, the Russian Empire colluded with Austria and Prussia to carve up all of Polish-Lithuanian territory, and all of Ukraine was incorporated into the territory of Tsarist Russia. In this period, the division of Ukraine into two lands, east and west, was evident. The people of eastern Ukraine, who were Eastern Orthodox and had been combined with Russia for over a century, were little different from Russians. The western Ukraine region, on the other hand, which was Catholic and had been part of the Polish-Lithuanian kingdom for more than a century, was dissatisfied with Tsarist Russian rule and clashed frequently with the east’s Eastern Orthodox adherents.
18世纪后期,统治西乌克兰的波兰-立陶宛王国,沦为俄罗斯帝国附庸国。到18世纪末,俄帝国伙同奥地利、普鲁士,瓜分了波兰-立陶宛的全部领土,将整个乌克兰纳入沙俄领地。在此时期,乌克兰东、西两地分化明显。其中,信仰东正教、与俄罗斯合并已有100多年的东部乌克兰与俄罗斯人之间的差别很小。而信仰天主教、过去100多年里是波兰-立陶宛王国一部分的西乌克兰地区,不满沙俄统治而与东部的东正教徒屡屡爆发冲突。
Russia’s February Revolution and October Revolution in 1917, which Ukrainian nationalists saw as a golden opportunity for independence, led to the establishment of the “Ukrainian People’s Republic.” Not long afterwards, the Bolsheviks also established the Ukrainian Soviet Republic in the east. Unable to resist the attack of the Soviet Red Army, the Ukrainian People’s Republic sought help from Germany, attacked Soviet Russia and occupied Kiev. After that, the Soviet Red Army defeated the armies of Petliura, Wrangel, and Makhno, and Ukraine became a political entity again. At the suggestion of Lenin, the Ukrainian Soviet Republic joined the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a state in 1922 and became one of the founding states of the USSR.
1917年俄国先后爆发了二月革命、十月革命,被乌克兰民族独立主义者认为是其独立的天赐良机,成立“乌克兰人民共和国”。随后不久,布尔什维克也在东部建立了“乌克兰苏维埃共和国”。抵挡不住苏俄红军进攻的“乌克兰人民共和国”投靠德国,向苏俄发起进攻并占领基辅。此后,苏俄红军先后击败彼得留拉军、弗兰格尔军以及马赫诺军,乌克兰重新成为一个政治实体。根据列宁的建议,乌克兰苏维埃共和国1922年以一个国家的身份加入“苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟”,成为苏联的创始国之一。
During the Great Patriotic War [World War II], Ukraine saw the emergence of “hero cities” such as Kiev, Odessa and Sevastopol, and groups that fought bravely against Nazi Germany. There were also many who chose to collaborate with Germany and become “Soviet traitors,” and tens of thousands of Ukrainians even joined the German SS. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict eased somewhat after the war, but the psychological rift always lingered.
苏联伟大卫国战争期间,乌克兰既涌现出基辅、敖德萨、塞瓦斯托波尔等“英雄城”和英勇抗击纳粹德国的群体,也有不少选择与德国合作而成为“苏奸”,甚至有上万乌克兰人加入德国党卫军。战后,俄乌矛盾虽有缓和,但心理裂痕始终挥之不去。
2. The United States and NATO use Ukraine to “curb Russia” and “weaken Russia”
2. 美国、北约借乌克兰“遏俄”“弱俄”
On December 8, 1991, at the government residence in the Bialowieza Forest in the Republic of Belarus, the leaders of three Soviet republics—the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Belarus—signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States, declaring that “the Soviet Union has ceased to exist as a subject of international law and a geopolitical entity.”
1991年12月8日,在白俄罗斯共和国的别洛韦日森林中的维斯库利政府官邸,来自俄罗斯联邦、乌克兰和白俄罗斯三个苏联加盟共和国的领导人签署《关于建立独立国家联合体的协议》,宣布“苏联作为国际法主体和地缘政治实体已经终止存在”。
A widely held belief in Russian strategic and historical circles is that, in addition to a series of domestic policy mistakes by the party and state leaders, Western countries, led by the United States, also had a hand in the dissolution of the Soviet Union 30 years ago. In that process, the destructive activities conducted by Washington found collaborators within the Soviet Union and were carried out by the so-called “dissidents.” It would be more accurate to say that the Soviet Union did not “disintegrate” by itself, but was “destroyed,” and that foreign powers played a key role in this process.
俄罗斯战略界、史学界普遍认为,苏联在30年前解体,除党和国家领导人的一系列国内政策失误外,以美国为首的西方国家难逃干系。在此过程中,华盛顿实施的破坏性活动在苏联内部找到了合作者,由那些所谓“持不同政见者”实施。更为准确的说法是,不是苏联自己“解体”,而是被“毁灭”,国外势力在这一进程中发挥了关键作用。
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States and the West celebrated. In The Grand Chessboard, former U.S. National Security Adviser [Zbigniew] Brzezinski proudly stated that “an expanding and democratic Europe has to be an open-ended historical process, not subject to politically arbitrary geographic limits.” He further said that if Russia was to avoid being dangerously isolated geopolitically, it had come to terms with a transatlantic, enlarged European Union and NATO.
苏联解体后,美西方弹冠相庆。美国前总统国家安全事务助理布热津斯基曾在《大棋局》中骄傲地说:“一个扩大和民主的欧洲必须是一个没有尽头的历史进程,不应受在政治上任意涂抹的地理的限制。”他进一步说,如果俄国要避免在地缘政治上被危险地孤立,它必须与一个横跨大西洋、扩大的欧盟和北约打交道。
Brzezinski also reminded the U.S. government at the time that the loss of Ukraine had a pivotal impact on Russia geopolitically, because it greatly limited its geostrategic options… With the loss of Ukraine and its more than 52 million Slavs, any attempt by Moscow to rebuild a Eurasian Empire would risk plunging Russia into a protracted conflict with ethnically and religiously awakened non-Slavs… With Russia’s declining birthrate and the dramatically increasing populations of Central Asia, any new Eurasian empire without Ukraine, built on Russian power alone, would inevitably see its European color fade over time.
布热津斯基还提醒当时的美国政府,从地缘政治上看,丢掉乌克兰对俄国而言有举足轻重的影响,因为这使其地缘战略选择受到极大的限制……丧失乌克兰及其5200多万斯拉夫人,莫斯科任何重建欧亚帝国的图谋均有可能使俄国陷入与在民族和宗教方面已经觉醒的非斯拉夫人的持久冲突中……由于俄国出生率日益下降而中亚人口急剧增加,任何没有乌克兰而仅建立在俄国力量之上的新欧亚帝国,随着时间的推移,其欧洲化色彩将不可避免地减弱。
For the past 30 years, the United States and NATO have constantly used the Ukraine issue to irritate Russia. Despite disagreements, in the first two decades, a stoic Russia was generally able to maintain normal state relations with Ukraine, which still had pro-Russian forces. In 2013-2014, the “color revolution” in Ukraine fundamentally altered the Russia-Ukraine relationship.
过去30年,美国和北约不断借乌克兰问题刺激俄罗斯。尽管龃龉不断,但隐忍的俄罗斯与尚存在亲俄势力的乌克兰在前20年总体上仍能够维持正常国家关系。2013至2014年,乌克兰爆发的“颜色革命”,从根本上改变了俄乌关系。
On November 21, 2013, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych announced that he was suspending the signing of an Association Agreement aimed at strengthening trade ties with the EU, and would instead seek closer cooperation with Russia. The United States and Europe supported the opposition as it took the opportunity to launch a wave of protests that toppled the Yanukovych regime. In that process, the U.S. government made no secret of its support for the “color revolution,” with then-Assistant Secretary of State [Victoria] Nuland handing out cookies to the crowd of protesters occupying Kiev’s central square, in solidarity with the opposition.
2013年11月21日,时任乌克兰总统亚努科维奇宣布暂缓签署旨在强化与欧盟贸易关系的联系国协定,转而寻求同俄进行更密切的合作。美国和欧洲支持反对派借机掀起抗议浪潮,推翻了亚努科维奇政权。在此过程中,美国政府丝毫不掩饰支持“颜色革命”的立场,时任助理国务卿纽兰到占据基辅市中心广场的抗议者人群中派发饼干,声援反对派。
During the presidencies of Petro Poroshenko and Zelensky, the United States and NATO increased their penetration into Ukraine. Through various kinds of conditional assistance, and in the name of fighting corruption, the United States not only actively supported “anti-Russian” and “pro-American” forces, and controlled strategic economic sectors in Ukraine, but also exerted a key influence on Ukraine’s judiciary.
波罗申科、泽连斯基两任总统执政期间,美国、北约加大对乌克兰渗透。美国通过各种有条件的援助,以打击腐败为名,不仅积极扶持“反俄”“亲美”势力、控制了乌克兰战略经济部门,而且对乌司法界施加关键性影响。
The most disturbing thing for Russia is that the United States has not stopped promoting the process of Ukraine’s substantive “NATO entry” for even one day. The “real but nameless” bases that the United States, Britain, and other NATO countries have established on Ukrainian territory are the direct motivation for Russia’s showdown with Ukraine, the United States, and NATO.
而最令俄罗斯如芒在背的是,美国一天也没有停止促使乌实质性“入约”的进程。而美国、英国等北约国家在乌克兰领土上建立的“有实无名”的基地,是俄向乌克兰、美国以及北约摊牌的直接动因。
According to media reports, NATO countries have so far established nine secret military bases in Ukraine—in Yavoriv in Lviv Oblast, Yuzhny in Odessa Oblast, Mikhaylovka in Mykolaiv Oblast, Oleshsky in Kherson Oblast, Mala Liubasha in Rivne Oblast, Goncharovskoye in Chernihiv Oblast, Zmiiny (Snake) Island in the Black Sea, Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, and Shostka in Sumy Oblast—with thousands of military personnel. In these secret bases, the Ukrainian military has been trained according to NATO standards by instructors sent by the United States, Britain, and Latvia. The United States has built the Ochakov Naval Operations Center, as well as a naval base for future use by NATO forces. The U.S. Department of Defense has sent “transnational threat experts” to train Ukrainian Security Service agents in carrying out sabotage against Russia. And at the 73rd Maritime Special Operations Center in Ochakov, Britain’s MI6 organized a three-week training course for the Military-Diplomatic Academy of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service.
根据媒体报道,北约国家迄今为止在乌克兰利沃夫州的亚沃罗夫、敖德萨州的尤日尼、尼古拉耶夫州的米哈伊洛夫卡、赫尔松州的阿列什基、罗夫诺州的小柳巴沙、切尔尼戈夫州的贡恰罗夫斯科耶、黑海上的兹缅尼岛、顿涅茨克州的马里乌波尔以及苏梅州的肖斯特卡建立了9处秘密军事基地,军事人员多达数千。在这些秘密基地中,美国、英国以及拉脱维亚等国派遣教官,按照北约标准培训乌军;美国为乌建成奥恰科夫舰船作战控制中心,以及未来供北约军队使用的海军基地;美国防部派出“跨国威胁专家”培训乌安全局特工,从事实施对俄破坏活动;在奥恰科夫的第73海上特种作战中心,英军情六处为乌国防部情报总局军事外交学院组织为期三周的培训课程。
In addition to building military bases against Russia and increasing military cooperation in Ukraine, over the past several years, NATO has also supplied Ukraine arms, ammunition, warships, and heavy equipment, radar, and other military technical equipment necessary for waging war.
除在乌建设针对俄罗斯的军事基地、加强军事合作外,北约过去数年还向乌提供武器、弹药、军舰以及重型装备、雷达等发动战争所需的军事技术装备。
3. The United States and the West treat Russia’s security concerns negatively
3. 美西方消极对待俄罗斯的安全关切
In fact, as early as last October, the Russian International Affairs Council, a leading Russian think tank, predicted “five endings” to the crisis in Ukraine. First, Russia abandons its national interests and “submits” to NATO, as it did in the 1990s. Second, Russia-NATO relations will be frozen at the current level, as reflected in the situation in eastern Ukraine, and the United States and NATO will restrain the behavior of Kiev, avoiding large-scale fighting on the line of contact in Donbas. Third, the relationship between Russia and the United States and the West deteriorates further, the Ukrainian government uses a local conflict to transfer domestic conflicts intensified by rising energy prices, and Russia is forced to copy the “Crimea model,” using a referendum to promote the Donbas region’s independence or even “incorporation into Russia.” Fourth, with the intensification of domestic conflicts and political turmoil in Ukraine, Russia supports the complete occupation of Donbas by the armed forces in the east and southeast of the country and encourages the secession of Ukraine’s eastern and southeastern oblasts, leading to the dismemberment of Ukraine. Fifth, there will be global reconstruction, that is, Russia and NATO launch a full-scale confrontation, one result being that Donbas and even all of Ukraine will be incorporated into Russia.
事实上,俄著名智库国际事务委员会早在去年10月就曾预测乌克兰危机的“五种结局”。其一,俄放弃国家利益,像20世纪90年代那样“屈服”于北约。其二,俄与北约关系将冻结在目前的水平,反映在乌东局势上,美与北约将约束基辅行为,避免顿巴斯接触线大规模交火事件发生。其三,俄与美西方关系进一步恶化,乌政府通过一场局部冲突转移因能源价格上涨而激化的国内矛盾,俄被迫复制“克里米亚模式”以推动顿巴斯通过公决独立甚至“入俄”。其四,乌国内矛盾激化、政局动荡,俄支持乌东武装完全占领顿巴斯并鼓动乌东部、东南部各州脱离,乌克兰面临被肢解局面。其五,全球重建,即俄与北约展开全面对抗,其中一个结果是顿巴斯乃至全乌都将并入俄罗斯。
It is clear that the Ukrainian crisis is heading toward the most extreme fifth scenario. In fact, however, if the United States and NATO had treated Russia’s security concerns sincerely and seriously, the crisis in Ukraine would not have developed to such a situation.
很明显,乌克兰危机正在走向最为极端的第五个场景。但事实上,如果美国和北约认真、严肃对待俄罗斯的安全关切,乌克兰危机本不至于发展到如此局面。
Over the past two months, Russia has pursued two goals in the game with the United States and NATO over Ukraine: the “major goal” of forcing the West to provide security guarantees for Russia, and the “minor goal” of implementing the Minsk II agreement as Russia demands.
过去两个月,俄与美国、北约在乌克兰问题上的博弈中追求两个目标,即倒逼西方为俄提供安全保障的“大目标”和按俄罗斯要求落实新明斯克协议的“小目标”。
On December 15 last year, faced with the serious “point of no return” external situation and the suddenly increasing risk of gunfire over Ukraine, Russia submitted to NATO and the United States respectively, two draft agreements: the Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees. From January 10 to 13, Russia held an intensive dialogue with the United States and NATO on a range of security issues, including the situation in Ukraine and NATO’s eastward expansion, and presented Russia’s security concerns and vision for European security at a special meeting of the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). However, Russia’s core concerns, such as its clearly drawn “red lines” and proposed principle of “indivisibility of security,” were ignored by the United States and NATO. The United States and NATO have shifted the focus of the security dialogue from the political to the military-technical sphere, raising specific issues such as the resumption of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, limiting military exercises and deployments, increasing the transparency of exercises, and resuming diplomatic missions between Russia and NATO.
去年12月15日,面对“退无可退”的严峻外部形势和在乌克兰问题上骤然增加的擦枪走火风险,俄分别向北约、美国提交《关于确保俄罗斯联邦与北大西洋公约组织成员国安全保障措施的协议》和《俄罗斯联邦和美利坚合众国之间关于安全保障的条约》两份草案。1月10日至13日,围绕乌克兰局势、北约东扩等一系列安全问题,俄罗斯与美国、北约进行密集对话,并在欧洲安全与合作组织(欧安组织)常设理事会特别会议上阐述俄方安全关切和欧洲安全愿景。然而,俄罗斯明确划“红线”、提出的“安全不可分割”原则等核心关切,遭美国、北约无视。美国、北约避重就轻地将安全对话重点从政治层面转向军事技术领域,提出恢复《中程导弹条约》、限制军事演习和军事部署、提升演习透明度、恢复俄与北约之间外交代表团等具体问题。
The Minsk II agreement, a series of measures to implement the Minsk Agreement signed by Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia in 2015 in the capital of Belarus and unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council in Resolution 2202, has become the key to addressing the Donbas issue in eastern Ukraine. It deserves to be fully and effectively implemented by all parties concerned. However, most of the provisions of the agreement have not been truly implemented. In this process, the United States and Europe, which have influence on the Ukrainian government, did not play a constructive role, but rather did nothing.
新明斯克协议是2015年德国、法国、乌克兰、俄罗斯四国在白俄罗斯首都签订的一系列落实明斯克协议的措施,经过联合国安理会第2202号决议一致认可,成为处理乌东顿巴斯问题的钥匙,理应得到有关各方的全面和有效执行。然而,协议中的大部分条款未得到真正落实。在此过程中,对乌克兰政府有影响力的美国、欧洲并没有发挥建设性作用,而是无所作为。
On February 24, the crisis in Ukraine was triggered when Russia launched a special military operation in the Donbas region.
2月24日,俄在顿巴斯地区展开特别军事行动,乌克兰危机引爆。
As things stand, the United States and NATO are avoiding like the plague scenarios could drag them in. President Joe Biden was the first to say that he was “monitoring the situation in Ukraine from the White House,” and his spokesperson reiterated that “under no circumstances will troops be sent to Ukraine.
事到如今,美国和北约对有可能被卷入的场景却唯恐避之不及。美国总统拜登第一时间表态称“正在白宫监控乌克兰的局势”,其发言人重申“在任何情况下都不会向乌克兰派兵”。
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the 25th that the West has completely abandoned Ukraine. He said he had asked the leaders of 27 European countries whether Ukraine could join NATO, but received no answer.
而乌克兰总统泽连斯基25日则表示,西方已经完全放弃了乌克兰。他说,已向27个欧洲国家领导人询问乌克兰是否能加入北约,但均未得到答复。
A Russian strategist offered reporters a metaphor for the Ukrainian crisis scenario: Thirty years ago, Russia and Ukraine, a pair of brothers, split into two households. At first, the two households had spats from time to time, but they were still at peace. At that time, NATO, and the United States, third parties with the mission of “curbing Russia” and “weakening Russia,” joined in and encouraged the younger brother every day to fight against his older brother, even using the little brother’s house as a fortress against him. And when the older brother unleashed a thunderous wrath, NATO, and the United States, the third parties, made a clean getaway.
俄罗斯一位战略学家向记者形象地比喻乌克兰危机场景:30年前,俄罗斯和乌克兰这一对兄弟分家。起初,两家虽不时有口角,但尚能和平。此时,北约、美国这个以“遏俄”“弱俄”为使命的第三者加入进来,每天都在鼓动弟弟与哥哥处处作对,甚至将弟弟家作为对付哥哥的堡垒。而当哥哥发起雷霆之怒时,北约和美国这个第三者却逃之夭夭。
Wu Dahui, deputy director of Tsinghua University’s Russian Research Institute, elaborated quite incisively on the current Russia-Ukraine crisis. He believes that NATO’s eastward expansion cannot maintain peace and stability in Europe, and is not conducive to the long-term stability of Europe. If NATO had made a commitment not to admit Ukraine, it would have prevented a war, but the United States and Europe did not do so. This fully reflects the “stupidity” of the European leadership, which cannot distinguish the current situation, and the “badness” of the U.S. leadership, which wants to use the crisis to “eat” Russia, “hold” Europe and “look” after its economic interests. Thus, a war that could have been avoided was ignited in Ukraine.
清华大学俄罗斯研究院副院长吴大辉对当前俄乌危机的阐述相当精辟。他认为,北约东扩无法维护欧洲和平稳定,不利于欧洲长治久安。北约做出不接纳乌克兰的承诺就能阻止一场战争,但美欧没有这样做。这充分体现了欧洲领导层分不清时局的“蠢”,美国领导层希望借助这场危机实现“吃”住俄罗斯、“夹”住欧洲、“看”住经济利益的“坏”。于是,本可以避免的一场战火,就这样在乌克兰点燃。
Ukraine, which was supposed to be a bridge between East and West, has now become a frontier of confrontation between major powers. The deterioration of the situation in Ukraine and the reality that the United States and NATO are pursuing a Cold War mentality to provoke confrontation and are concerned only with interests without regard to principles are enough to make those forces that were content to be the pawns and pieces of hegemonic powers think twice.
本应成为东西方沟通桥梁的乌克兰,如今却变成了大国对抗的前沿。乌克兰局势的恶化及美国和北约奉行冷战思维挑动对抗,只顾利益不讲道义的现实,足以供那些甘当霸权国家马前卒和棋子的势力三思。