新格局下中国能源安全破局之策
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Strategies for Breaking Through China’s Energy Security Constraints Under the New Pattern

新格局下中国能源安全破局之策

This article, published by a Sinopec-affiliated journal, a Party official calls for China to promote a “Petro-RMB” and the construction of a “new order of global energy governance.”


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The world is currently undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. The whole world has entered a period of turbulent change, and the political and economic landscape is undergoing profound change, adding many uncertainties to China’s economic development and energy security. The energy industry itself is undergoing tremendous changes, a new global energy industry pattern is taking shape, the energy security situation facing China is changing, the 30.60 targets have created new demands for the development of China’s energy industry, and the connotations of energy security in the traditional sense have changed. How we plan China’s energy security under the new pattern and ensure national energy security given such profound changes is of great and far-reaching significance.

当前世界正在经历百年未有之大变局,全球进入动荡变革期,政治经济格局正发生着深刻变化,给中国经济发展及能源安全增加了许多不确定因素。能源产业自身也正经历巨大变革,全球新的能源产业格局正在形成,中国面临的能源安全形势正在发生变化,“30·60”目标更是对中国能源产业发展提出了新的要求,传统意义上的能源安全内涵已经发生变化。如何在新格局下谋划中国能源安全,保障大变局下的国家能源安全,具有重大而深远的意义。

1     Judgment on the Energy Security Situation Facing China

1      中国面临的能源安全形势判断

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes that energy security is an overall and strategic issue related to the country’s economic and social development. At a time of rapid technological changes, increasingly fierce competition between major powers, and energy transition in full swing, China must have a thorough understanding of its energy security situation, see clearly the new risks it faces, and plan a new path for national energy security.

习近平总书记强调,能源安全是关系国家经济社会发展的全局性、战略性问题。在当前技术变革日新月异、大国博弈日趋激烈、能源转型如火如荼之际,中国更需洞察所处能源安全形势,看清面临的新风险,谋划国家能源安全新路径。

1.1     Resource security risk: overall global oil and gas resources are sufficient, and the overall resource supply is guaranteed if no extreme special events occur
1.1    资源保障风险:全球总体油气资源充足,如无极端特殊事件发生总体资源供应有保障

From the perspective of oil and gas resource supply in China, over the past 40 years of reform and opening, China’s economy has grown rapidly and has become the second-largest economy in the world. Coupled with the decline in domestic oil production in the past few years, China’s dependence on foreign oil has continued to rise. In 2017, it surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest crude oil importer. In 2020, China’s foreign dependence on crude oil reached 73%, and its dependence on foreign natural gas had also climbed to 43%. Judging from the data, China’s energy security issues seem to be more urgent and prominent. But from the perspective of global oil and gas resource supply, the current world oil and gas market is generally in sufficient supply, which is very much conducive to China making full use of the international market to expand resource channels. Since 2009, with the success of the “shale revolution” in the United States, the international oil situation has undergone fundamental changes. At the same time, with the continuous progress of exploration and development technology, especially after 2014, oil production in the United States, Norway, Brazil, and Canada has continued to grow, the oil market’s resource supply is sufficient and it is generally in a state of oversupply. In addition, technological advances have meant that resource supply is no longer the main issue for energy security. Tremendous progress in S&T makes the potential resources of energy supply very rich. According to BP’s forecast, by 2050, the world’s proven fossil fuel resource reserves will have increased from 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to between 4.6 trillion and 4.8 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, nearly doubling. Thus, before 2035, when China has achieved moderately prosperous society in all respects and the basic realization of socialist modernization, the international oil and gas supply situation which China faces should be relatively relaxed, with ample guarantees for diversified import sources. In addition, from the perspective of oil demand, due to the development of electric vehicles and hydrogen energy technology, the century-old trend of continuous and rapid increase in oil demand is now being reversed. It is expected that peak oil demand will be ushered in from 2025–2030, after which China’s dependence on foreign oil and gas will experience a declining trend. Based on a comprehensive judgment, China’s oil and gas resource supply risks will not become more and more urgent, but will rather become more and more relaxed as the oil peak approaches.

从中国油气资源供应情况看,改革开放40年来,我国经济高速增长,已成为世界第二大经济体,加之前几年国内石油产量的下降,使得我国的石油对外依存度不断攀升,2017年超过美国成为世界第一大原油进口国,2020年中国原油对外依存度已达73%,天然气对外依存度也攀升至43%。从数据看,中国的能源安全问题似乎更加紧迫而突出。但从全球油气资源供应情况看,当前世界油气市场总体供应充足,非常有利于我国充分利用国际市场拓展资源渠道。自2009年后,随着美国“页岩革命”成功,国际石油形势发生了根本性变化。同时,随着勘探开发技术的不断进步,尤其在2014年后,美国、挪威、巴西、加拿大石油产量不断增加,石油市场资源供应充足,总体处于供大于求的状态。此外,技术进步让资源供应不再成为能源安全的主要问题。科技的巨大进步使能源供应的潜在资源量十分丰富。据BP预测,至2050年,全球已证实的化石燃料资源储量将由2.9万亿桶石油当量增至4.6万亿~4.8万亿桶石油当量,增长近1倍。因此,在2035年我国全面建成小康社会和基本实现社会主义现代化之前,中国面临的国际油气供应形势较为宽松,进口来源多样化的选择有充分保证。此外,从石油的需求侧看,由于电动汽车和氢能技术的发展,百年来石油需求持续快速增加的趋势正在被逆转。预计将在2025–2030年迎来石油需求峰值,之后中国的油气对外依存度将会趋于下降。综合判断,中国的油气资源供应风险并不会越来越紧迫,而是将随着石油峰值的趋近而越来越宽松。

1.2     Energy price risk: it will be hard for oil prices to reach a high of more than $100, and the risk of price surges is small
1.2     能源价格风险:油价难以再上百元以上高位,价格暴涨风险较小

Throughout the century-old history of energy development, due to the scarcity of oil and gas resources, past geopolitical conflicts to a great degree stemmed from oil, which caused the market to rise and fall. For a China which is highly dependent on imports, high oil prices increase foreign exchange expenditures, driving a rise in the price of goods, reducing GDP growth, and negatively impacting economic development. From the perspective of the development trend of future geopolitical conflicts, things will still be very complicated and serious and even aggravated.

纵观能源发展百年历史,由于油气资源的稀缺性,以往的地缘政治冲突很大程度上源于石油,并引发市场暴涨暴跌。对于高度依赖进口的中国而言,高油价将增加外汇支出,拉动物价上涨,降低GDP增长率,对经济发展形成负面影响。从未来地缘政治冲突的发展态势看,仍会十分复杂严峻,甚至加剧。

The United States’ “shale oil and gas revolution” has made the U.S. the world’s largest oil producer and net exporter. After 2020 it achieved full energy independence, and began pursuing the formation of a new “energy hegemony” on the global energy map. In recent years, it has often played its card of having the power to control energy, and it has continuously suppressed Iran’s crude oil exports, sanctioned Venezuela to reduce crude oil exports, and has threatened to sanction Russia and Germany’s natural gas pipeline projects, adding variables to the whole world’s energy trade and international cooperation. At the same time, the development of S&T has also made the geopolitical forms of conflict more sensitive, fragile, and unpredictable. For example, in 2019, under the “double insurance” offensive of Yemen’s Houthi armed drone fleet and cruise missiles, Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity was instantly “chopped in half,” and the world’s output of refined oil fell by five percentage points. Fortunately, however, in the bigger context of increasingly loose oil and gas resources, the high sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical conflicts has been greatly reduced. Generally, there will be no long-term fluctuations following geopolitical events, and the oil supply pattern and logic of oil price changes have been quietly changing. Therefore, it can be judged that regardless of future intensifications of geopolitical conflicts, the emergence of a large-scale global oil crisis like that of the 1990s is today almost impossible. Even if there were to be large-scale turmoil in the Middle East and direct conflict between world powers, oil prices could, over a short period, fluctuate sharply to a high of more than $100 but in the long run, the energy transition will bring downward pressure on oil and gas prices. It is expected that future oil prices will for a long time remain at a relatively stable level of $50~$70 per barrel, and there will not be a long-term risk of high oil prices which would have a negative impact on the Chinese economy.

美国“页岩油气革命”使其成为世界最大的石油生产国和净出口国,2020年后实现全面能源独立,在全球能源版图上开始谋求形成新的“能源霸权”,近几年围绕能源控制权频频出牌,持续打压伊朗原油出口,制裁委内瑞拉降低原油出口,威胁制裁俄罗斯、德国天然气管道项目,给全世界能源贸易和国际合作平添变数。同时,科技的发展也让地缘冲突形态变得更为敏感、脆弱而莫测。如2019年,在也门胡塞武装无人机大机群和巡航导弹的“双保险”攻势之下,沙特产油能力瞬间“腰斩”,世界成品油的产出随之下挫5个百分点。但值得庆幸的是,在油气资源日渐宽松的大环境下,油价对地缘政治冲突的高敏感性已大打折扣,一般不会跟随地缘事件出现长时间波动,石油供应格局和油价变动逻辑已在悄然发生改变。因此,可以判断,尽管未来地缘政治冲突加剧,但出现类似20世纪90年代的全球性大规模石油危机几乎已无可能,即使出现中东地区的大规模动荡和世界大国间的直接冲突,油价可能短时间大幅波动到百元以上的高位。长期看,能源转型更将给油气价格带来下行压力,预计未来油价将较长时间维持在50~70美元/桶相对稳定水平,不会长期存在高油价风险,对中国经济带来负面影响。

1.3     International trade cooperation risks: great power maneuvering and conflict  intensifies, global cooperation, seaway blockades, and trade sanctions risks grow
1.3      国际贸易合作风险:大国博弈冲突加剧,国际合作、航道阻断和交易制裁风险上升

With the intensification of maneuvering and conflicts between major powers, energy security and the environment for international cooperation deteriorate sharply. Even if future resource supply is relatively sufficient, it is necessary to fully estimate and prepare for the high degree of uncertainty in energy trade cooperation brought about by high geopolitical risks. It is estimated that the risks mainly come from several dimensions. First, the security risks of major international shipping channels are rising, and hidden dangers affecting strategic oil and gas channels are increasing. In particular, the security of China’s oil import transportation relies on sea transportation and the Malacca Strait waterway and oil and gas shipping companies fear sanctions, and their oil and gas transportation business in sensitive countries being restricted. Second, the risk of trade sanctions has increased. Due to the distribution of some oil and gas production in sensitive areas, Chinese energy companies may enter entity sanctions lists, and overseas fund settlement accounts may be frozen, hindering oil and gas trade with sanctioned countries. Third is the risk of international energy cooperation projects. In the context of intense great power maneuvering, due to the implementation of “long-arm jurisdiction” by the United States, some countries have a reduced willingness to cooperate in projects with China and may even refuse to do so, the introduction of key energy technologies and core oil and gas equipment faces blockages, and the “stranglehold” problem is becoming increasingly apparent. The United States and its allies are trying to obstruct the Belt and Road Initiative, and the energy cooperation projects which China and the resource countries along the Belt and Road have in place or have been negotiating will become more uncertain, and once shelved or canceled, initial investments will become sunk costs. Therefore, it is necessary to intensively establish bottom-line thinking and plan in advance for possible risks and coping strategies.

随之大国博弈冲突加剧,能源安全和国际合作环境急剧恶化,即使未来资源供应较为充足,还需要对地缘政治风险高企带来的能源贸易合作的高度不确定性予以充分估计并做好准备。预计风险主要来自几个方面:一是国际主要运输航道安全风险上升,油气战略通道隐患增多。尤其中国石油进口运输安全依赖海运和马六甲海峡航道,油气海运公司忌惮制裁,承接敏感国家油气运输业务受到限制。二是贸易制裁风险加大。由于部分油气生产分布敏感地区,中国能源企业或进入实体制裁名单,境外资金结算账户恐被冻结,与被制裁国进行油气贸易受阻。三是国际能源合作项目风险。在激烈大国博弈背景下,由于美国实施“长臂管辖”,导致部分国家对华项目合作意愿降低,甚至可能拒绝,引进关键能源技术、核心油气装备面临封锁,“卡脖子”问题愈加凸显;美国联合盟友试图阻挠“一带一路”倡议,中国与“一带一路”沿线资源国已有和在谈能源合作项目变数增大,一旦搁置、取消,前期投资变为沉没成本。因此,需要高度树立底线思维,提前谋划可能出现的风险和应对策略。

1.4     Supply structural risk: the general trend of energy transition determines that the focus of long-term energy security risks will shift from oil and gas to electricity
1.4      供应结构性风险:能源转型大势决定长远能源安全风险重心将由油气转向电力

Since the beginning of the new century, the global energy pattern has been deeply adjusted, a new round of energy revolution has vigorously emerged, the speed of the transformation process has significantly increased, and energy production and consumption have continued to develop in a cleaner, more low-carbon, higher-efficiency, electrified, and intelligentized direction. Among these, “re-electrification” has already become the inevitable path for driving the rapid development of clean energy and realizing energy transformation. The global economy will be deeply decarbonized in everyday living and economic fields, and we must act, with traditional electrification as the foundation, to make full use of new energy, new materials, and digital technology, and pursue the large-scale development and utilization of clean energy and the replacement of fossil fuels to ultimately realize the complete electrification of industry, buildings, and transportation. According to BP’s forecast, by 2050, electricity will become the main energy carrier, increasing from 20% of current energy consumption to nearly 50%, and consumption will more than double. The energy supply system will be dominated by electricity. China is also striving to transform from an energy-intensive economy to a service-driven economy, gradually reducing the demand for coal and oil in end-use energy, and increasing the proportion of electricity consumption. The high degree of electrification of the end-use energy system will bring new structural risks to energy security, and shift the center of future energy security from the principally oil and gas-based system to the protection of the power system.

进入新世纪以来,全球能源格局深度调整,新一轮能源革命蓬勃兴起,转型进程显著加快,能源生产和消费继续向清洁化、低碳化、高效化、电气化和智能化的方向发展。其中“再电气化”已经成为推动清洁能源快速发展、实现能源转型的必由之路,全球经济将在生活及经济领域进行深度脱碳,在传统电气化基础上,充分利用新能源、新材料和数字技术,大规模开发利用清洁能源并替代化石能源,最终实现工业、建筑、交通的全面电气化。根据BP预测,到2050年,电力将成为主要的能源载体,从目前能源消耗占比的20%增至近50%,消耗量增加1倍以上。能源供应体系将由电力主导。中国也正努力从能源密集型经济体转型为以服务业为拉动的经济体,在终端用能中逐渐减少对煤炭和石油的需求,增加电力消费占比。终端用能体系的高度电力化将给能源安全带来新的结构化风险,让未来能源安全的中心从以往的油气为主转向保障电力体系为主。

2     China’s energy security path under the new pattern

2      新格局下的中国能源安全路径

China is the world’s largest energy producer and consumer. How to ensure national energy security and guarantee economic and social development has always been the primary issue facing the development of the energy industry. In 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the new strategy for energy security of “Four Revolutions, One Cooperation” (“四个革命、一个合作”)  revealing the characteristics, laws, and direction of China’s energy development in the new era. In the past few decades, China’s traditional energy security thinking has mainly focused on the preservation of oil and gas resources, with the main path being to increase domestic exploration and development and international resource cooperation. Under the new development pattern, China will continue to base its approach on its own endowment of energy resources, coordinate the energy transition requirements and follow the objective laws of the development of energy supply and demand, treat energy supply side structural reforms as the core thread, and continuously adjust and perfect the path for realizing energy security, using a multi-pronged approach to bring about a new-era energy security guarantee system under multiple goals.

我国是世界最大能源生产国和消费国,如何确保国家能源安全、保障经济社会发展,始终是能源事业发展面临的首要问题。习近平总书记在2014年就提出了“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略,揭示了新时代我国能源发展的特点规律和方向。过去几十年中,中国传统能源安全思路主要聚焦保油气资源,以加大国内勘探开发和国际资源合作为主要路径。新发展格局下,中国还将立足我国能源资源禀赋,统筹能源转型要求遵循能源供需发展客观规律,以能源供给侧结构性改革为主线,不断调整完善能源安全实现路径,多管齐下实现多重目标下的新时代能源安全保障体系。

2.1     Path 1: Unswervingly basing the approach on international and domestic resources, achieving energy security under open conditions
2.1      路径之一:坚定不移地立足国际国内两种资源,实现开放条件下的能源安全

Under the current complex and severe external development situation, to ensure national energy security, it is imperative that we treat the development and utilization of domestic oil and natural gas resources as the most fundamental foothold for solving oil security problems, and efforts must be made to continuously increase exploration and development and technological innovation. At the same time, we must vigorously promote the oil and gas marketization reform, cultivate a more dynamic oil and gas market, build a diversified supply system, and continuously improve the level of coal-fired oil and gas security. However, it should also be noted that in a country with a huge economy like China, in terms of domestic oil and gas production and reserves, it is far from enough to rely solely on domestic oil and gas supply. In particular, due to the limitations of China’s geological resource endowment, even with the recent increases in both domestic oil and gas reserves and exploitation, most of the achievements made in the reserves have been rolling increases of old oil fields and old oil layers; the number of discoveries of new layers, new blocks, and new resource types has been low. In addition, the grades of newly discovered reserves are not ideal, resulting in higher exploration and development costs. Preliminary estimates show that new oil and gas production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period still cannot keep up with demand growth, and China’s dependence on foreign oil and gas will continue to rise. Therefore, even under the new development pattern, for now and for a long time to come, we still need to unswervingly base our approach on both international and domestic resources, and continue to “go global” (走出去) participating in transnational energy cooperation, and vigorously promoting the internationalization of China’s petroleum industry. Under the Belt and Road strategy’s guidance, not only should state-owned enterprises go global but we should also encourage private enterprises to do so, to actively participate in the development and utilization of the world’s oil and gas resources and form strong international market competition and resource organization capabilities. At the same time, we must actively participate in, and even guide, the construction of the global energy governance system and deepen the implementation of the “international cooperation” in General Secretary Xi Jinping’s new-era energy security strategy to solve China’s energy security issues.

在当前复杂严峻的外部发展形势下,保障国家能源安全必须将国内石油天然气资源的开发和利用作为解决石油安全问题的最根本立足点,持续加大勘探开发和科技创新力度;同时大力推进油气市场化改革,培养更具活力的油气市场,构建多元化供给体系,不断提升煤电油气保障水平。但也要看到,像我国这样经济体量巨大的国家,以国内的油气产量和储备而言,仅靠国内油气供应是远远不够的。尤其是受限于我国的地质资源禀赋限制,尽管目前国内油气储量和开采量均有所提升,但已取得的储量成绩多属于老油田、老油层的滚动性增加,新层系、新区块、新资源类型发现不多。且新发现的储量品位不理想,导致勘探开发成本增高。初步估计,“十四五”期间新增油气产量仍不能跟上需求增长,我国油气对外依存度还会继续提高。因此,即使在新发展格局下,当前和未来相当长时期,我们仍需坚定不移地立足国际国内两种资源,继续“走出去”参与跨国能源合作,大力推进我国石油产业的国际化,在“一带一路”战略的引领下,不单国有企业走出去,还要鼓励民营企业走出去,积极参与世界油气资源的开发和利用,形成强大的国际市场竞争和资源组织能力。同时还要积极参与甚至引导全球能源治理体系构建,深化落实习近平总书记的新时代能源安全战略中的“国际合作”以解决中国能源安全保障问题。

2.2     Path 2: Strengthen strategic reserves, boosting China’s energy emergency support capabilities
2.2       路径之二:加强战略储备,增强中国能源应急保障能力

In today’s world, “black swan” events are a common occurrence. Out of important considerations for the long-term development of national economic security, though overall energy supply is sufficient, in the broader context of more complex geopolitics, it is necessary to pay close attention to the possible interruption of energy channels that emergencies could bring and the subsequent problems this would bring of insufficient emergency energy reserves. The role of future strategic reserves in ensuring energy security is therefore more prominent. Compared with the urgency of demand, China’s oil reserves only began at the national level in 2004, and though in recent years China has attached great importance to strategic energy reserves and made many useful explorations, constrained by issues such as insufficient reserve space, outdated storage technology, and high storage costs, there is still a considerable gap to be made up between overall scale and the scale of Western developed countries’ strategic oil reserves. In recent years, international oil and gas prices have been relatively low, providing China with a good strategic reserve window, and we can seize this favorable opportunity to make good use of the low oil price cycle to increase imports and increase reserves. China should accelerate deployments for constructing reserve bases around important coastal ports and petrochemical industry bases and promote the linkage of four ports—seaports, dry ports, airports, and information ports—build a world-class port cluster, speed up the construction of storage and transportation facilities such as wharfs, pipeline networks, oil tanks, and oil and gas depots, and make full use of underground spaces such as salt mine caverns and underground water-sealed caverns, promoting energy infrastructure construction, innovating oil and gas storage models, and taking on global resources for the Asia-Pacific market. We should mobilize private capital to participate in oil reserves, encourage domestic and foreign enterprises, carry out commercial reserves of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in accordance with international standards,  and jointly build a reserve system which combines state reserves, commercial reserves, and social reserves, support the joint construction of oil storage and transportation bases with international oil-producing countries, accelerate the formation of an international oil product bonded delivery system, and thus build up a diversified crude oil reserve system in an all-round way.

当今世界诸多“黑天鹅”事件频发,出于对国家经济安全长远发展的重要考量,尽管总体能源供应充足,但在地缘政治更为复杂的大背景下,需要高度关注应对突发事件可能导致的能源通道中断,进而引发的能源应急储备不足问题。未来战略储备对于能源安全的保障作用也因此更为凸显。相比需求的紧迫性而言,我国石油储备在国家层面从2004年才起步,尽管近年来我国高度重视能源战略储备,做了很多有益探索,但受储备空间不足、储存技术不先进、储存成本过高等问题制约,总体规模与西方发达国家战略石油储备规模相比还有不小的差距需要弥补。近几年国际油气价格处于相对低位,为我国提供了良好的战略储备窗口,可以抓住有利时机,利用好低油价周期加大进口,增加储备;在沿海重要港口、石化产业基地周边加快布局储备基地建设,推进海港、陆港、空港和信息港的四港联动,打造世界级港口集群,加快码头、管网、油罐、油气库等储运设施建设,并充分发掘利用盐矿溶腔、地下水封洞库等地下空间,推动能源基础设施建设,创新油气储备模式,面向亚太市场承接全球资源;调动民间资本参与石油储备,鼓励境内外企业,按照国际标准开展汽油、柴油、航空煤油等商业储备,共建国储、商储和社会储备等相结合的储备体系,支持与国际产油国共建油品储运基地,加快形成国际油品保税交割体系,进而全方位构建起多元化原油储备体系。

2.3     Path 3: Energy security is not only a matter of “addition” to improve high-quality energy but also of “subtraction” to improve energy efficiency
2.3      路径之三:能源安全保障不仅要做提升优质能源的加法,还需要做能效提升的减法

For a long time, improving energy efficiency has been a priority in different countries’ energy strategies and policies. The major developed countries have all formulated mid- and long-term energy efficiency improvement goals and treated this as the basis for enhancing energy security, optimizing energy structure, and improving environmental quality. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the principal contradiction in our society has shifted to the contradiction between the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. With the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization, the people’s need for energy is increasing. In order for China to ensure both the quality of life of its people and the safety of national energy use, it needs to set about tackling two aspects: resource security and energy efficiency improvement. To a certain extent you could even say that energy saving and energy efficiency are the biggest “energy sources.” Taking transportation as an example, if we look at the data released for the energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap, fuel consumption per 100 kilometers has been reduced from 5.0 liters in 2020 to about 3.2 liters. By 2050, the contribution rate of fuel saving in China’s transportation sector will reach 240 million tons, which will greatly weaken the driving force of the increase in car ownership to oil consumption, and the fuel saving effect will be very significant. Therefore, in future, China needs to vigorously promote energy-saving transformation in key sectors and promote all-round energy efficiency improvement, using this to drive economic structural adjustments and industrial transformation and upgrading, promote a green lifestyle and consumer culture, release the huge potential contained in energy efficiency, and play a huge role in guaranteeing national energy security.

长期以来,提升能源效率一直在各国能源战略和政策中居于优先地位,主要发达国家都制定了中长期能源效率提升目标,并将之作为增强能源安全、优化能源结构、改善环境质量的基础。中国特色社会主义进入新时代,我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾。随着工业化、城镇化的快速推进,人民群众对能源的需求越来越大。中国要兼顾保障百姓生活质量和国家用能安全,需要从资源保障和能效提升两方面着手。甚至从某种程度说,节能和能效是最大的“能源”,以交通运输为例,如按节能与新能源汽车技术路线图发布数据测算,如燃油百公里耗油量由2020年的5.0升降至3.2升左右,到2050中国交通领域节油贡献率将达到2.4亿吨,将极大削弱汽车保有量增长对石油消费的拉动,节油效果十分显著。因此,未来中国需要大力推动重点领域节能改造,促进全方位能效提升,以此推动经济结构调整和产业转型升级,推广绿色生活方式和消费文化,释放能效所含的巨大潜力,对国家能源安全起到巨大的保障效果。

2.4     Path 4: New energy is the ultimate means of resolving the problem of energy constraints
2.4      路径之四:新能源是解决能源制约问题的终极之道

The current state of energy resources and the environment, and the level of global carbon dioxide emissions, show that it is impossible for developing countries to follow the traditional model used by Western developed countries of high consumption and high pollution in the industrialization process. We must develop a green energy path that supports a better life with lower energy intensity and cleaner energy. In China’s current energy mix, coal accounts for about 58%. Under the 30·60 goal, China’s future energy consumption cannot possibly continue to maintain a high proportion of coal consumption, while oil and natural gas consumption are constrained by insufficient domestic resources. Therefore, for China, the development of new energy has become the ultimate solution to China’s energy security problems. This is not only a practical need for changing the development model of China’s long-term over-reliance on fossil fuel resource consumption. It is aimed at the future two major competitive fields of global energy resources and technological innovation, and will enhance China’s global discourse power and global influence on carbon reduction, as a strategic move which reflects the responsibility-shouldering of a major country. At the same time, compared with other countries, China has unique advantages in the development of new energy. It has already established a complete production chain in the wind power and photovoltaic power generation field, China’s technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, construction and operation and so on are all world leading. All of this is very much conducive, in the new development pattern, to China more quickly and effectively transforming industrial advantages into economic advantages, S&T innovation advantages, and green development advantages. In the future, our country can regard “renewable energy + water electrolysis for hydrogen production” as an ideal solution for China’s energy security.

当前的能源资源环境状况和全球二氧化碳排放水平表明,发展中国家不可能再沿袭西方发达国家在工业化过程中高消耗、高污染的传统模式,必须开拓一条以更低能耗强度、更清洁能源支撑美好生活的绿色能源之路。当前中国的能源结构中,煤炭占比约58%,在“30·60”目标下,未来中国的能源消费不可能继续维持高比例煤炭消费,而石油和天然气消费又受到本土资源不足的制约,因此,对中国而言,新能源发展成为解决我国能源安全问题的终极之道。这既是改变我国长期以来过度依赖化石能源资源消耗发展模式的现实需要,更是瞄准未来全球能源资源、科技创新两大竞争领域,提升我国全球减碳话语权和全球影响力,体现大国担当的战略举措。同时,相对其他国家,我国在新能源发展上具有得天独厚的优势,已在风电和光伏发电领域建立了完整的产业链条,技术研发、装备制造、建设运营等方面均处于全球领先,非常有利于在新发展格局中将产业优势更快更好转化为经济优势、科技创新优势和绿色发展优势。未来我国可将“可再生能源+水电解制氢”作为中国能源安全的理想解决方案。

2.5     Path 5: Promote cross-border grid interconnection and power trade, building a more open and closer regional energy security system
2.5      路径之五:推进跨国电网互联和电力贸易,构建更开放、更紧密的区域能源安全保障体系

Electrification as a feature of future global terminal energy consumption is striking. China’s energy industry should continue to thoroughly implement the new energy security strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and for a longer period beyond. China will also speed up the process of “electrification” and move from a big electric power country (电力大国) to a strong electric power country (电力强国), and international energy cooperation may also expand from primary to secondary energy. At present, globally, there are still about 1 billion people for whom the problem of electricity consumption has yet to be fully solved. China should fully grasp the new trends and changes in international energy cooperation, carry out in-depth Belt and Road energy cooperation, and expand the breadth and depth of Belt and Road energy cooperation, strengthen the interconnectivity of electricity and other infrastructure, and deepen cooperation in advanced technology fields such as high-efficiency and low-cost new energy power generation and clean and efficient coal-fired power generation. China should also actively participate in global energy governance, giving impetus to the construction of new global energy governance mechanisms and autonomous and controllable global energy supply chains, providing Chinese solutions for, and contributing Chinese wisdom towards, building an open, competitive, efficient, and stable energy market and a more orderly and inclusive global energy governance structure.

未来全球终端用能电气化特点十分明显,中国能源行业要在“十四五”及更长一个时期继续深入贯彻能源安全新战略,也将加快“电气化”进程,并由电力大国向电力强国迈进,国际间能源合作也将可能从一次能源拓展到二次能源。目前,全球还有约10亿人没有完全解决用电问题。中国要充分把握国际能源合作的新趋势新变化,深入开展“一带一路”能源合作,拓展延伸“一带一路”能源合作的广度和深度,加强电力等基础设施互联互通,并在高效低成本新能源发电、清洁高效燃煤发电等先进技术领域深化合作。积极参与全球能源治理,推动构建新的全球能源治理机制和自主可控的全球能源供应链,为构建开放竞争、高效稳定的能源市场,建设更加有序、更加包容的全球能源治理架构提供中国方案,贡献中国智慧。

2.6     Path 6: Actively and steadily advance the process of Petro-RMB, reconstructing the global energy governance system
2.6      路径之六:积极稳妥推进石油人民币进程,重构全球能源治理体系

Oil, as a special commodity, has experienced a long evolution and maneuvering in the development of its pricing power. In the game of commodity currency pricing power, which includes oil, the U.S. dollar not only gained principal influence in the pricing of the world oil futures market but it has at the same time also enabled the United States to influence to the greatest extent the fluctuation of international oil prices, to meet its national interests and to meet the goals of domestic economic operation. The launch of China’s crude oil futures in 2018 explores a new path for China to maintain national energy security. This will reduce the risk of single petrodollar pricing and will help to improve China’s ability to deal with the risk of oil price fluctuations in the international market. It will help us to break through the “Asian premium” that exists in Middle East crude oil, safeguarding China’s energy security. It will also help to enhance China’s influence in Asia, aiding the internationalization of the RMB. Over the past two years, RMB crude oil futures have been running smoothly, with trading volume, open interest and delivery volume rapidly increasing, and market influence has constantly grown, making China the third largest crude oil futures market in the world. In the future, against the backdrop of the gradual opening of China’s financial market and capital accounts, the internationalization of the RMB, and the return of overseas funds to China, the development of RMB crude oil futures will usher in a historical window as the conditions for realizing the pricing power of a petro-RMB are maturing. China should further reflect fully on the management experience of developed countries’ oil futures markets, take into account the reality in China, improve the investor structure, accelerate the establishment of an international platform for oil futures trading, improve the regulatory measures supporting oil futures, and actively and steadily promote the development of the internationalization of the RMB with petro-RMB, building a new order of global energy governance.

石油作为一种特殊的商品,其定价权的发展经历了漫长的演变和博弈。在包括石油在内的大宗商品货币定价权的博弈中,美元不仅获得了在世界石油期货市场定价中居于首位的影响力,同时也使美国能够在最大程度上影响国际油价的波动,以达到符合本国利益和满足国内经济运行的目标。2018年中国原油期货的推出,为中国维护国家能源安全探索出了一条新路。这将减少单一石油美元计价风险,有利于提高我国应对国际市场石油价格波动风险的能力;有利于打破中东原油存在的“亚洲溢价”,维护我国能源安全;有利于增强我国在亚洲地区的影响力,助力人民币国际化。两年多来,人民币原油期货平稳运行,交易量、持仓量、交割量快速提升,市场影响力不断增强,使得中国迅速成为全球第三大原油期货市场。未来,在中国金融市场及资本账户逐渐开放、人民币国际化、境外资金回流中国的背景下,人民币原油期货发展将迎来历史窗口期,实现“石油人民币”定价权的条件正在不断成熟。我国应进一步充分借鉴发达国家石油期货市场的管理经验,结合我国实际,完善投资者结构,加快建立石油期货交易国际平台,完善与石油期货配套的监管措施,以“石油人民币”积极稳妥推进人民币国际化的发展,构建全球能源治理新秩序。

3     Conclusion

3      结语

The 14th Five-Year Plan period is an important point in time for China’s economic and social development to connect the past with the future and deeply advance. The economy is now entering a new stage of high-quality development, and the new strategy for energy security of “Four Revolutions, One Cooperation” will also promote the continuous deepening and robust development of the energy production and consumption revolutions as we build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. In the face of a more uncertain and unstable world, China’s energy industry needs to continue to forge ahead, and in the new round of energy structure adjustment and technological change, we must continue to practice, continue to advance, and continue to grow in order to provide a stable and reliable energy guarantee for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and building a modern country.

“十四五”是中国经济社会发展承上启下、纵深推进的重要时间节点,经济正迈向高质量发展新阶段,“四个革命,一个合作”能源安全新战略也将推动能源生产和消费革命不断走深走实,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。面对未来更加不确定不稳定的世界,中国能源产业需要继续砥砺前行,在新一轮能源结构调整与技术变革大势中,不断实践、不断前进、不断壮大,为全面建成小康社会、建设现代化国家提供稳定可靠的能源保障。

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Cite This Page

付文利 (Fu Wenli) (2022). "Strategies for Breaking Through China’s Energy Security Constraints Under the New Pattern [新格局下中国能源安全破局之策]". Interpret: China, Original work published June 1, 2021, https://interpret.csis.org/translations/strategies-for-breaking-through-chinas-energy-security-constraints-under-the-new-pattern/

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