俄乌冲突背后的深层次动因及其影响
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The Deep-Seated Causes Behind the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Effects

俄乌冲突背后的深层次动因及其影响

The executive director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University argues that the Ukraine war is the “inevitable result of the long-term squeezing of Russia’s security space by the United States and NATO,” built out of “long-standing historical grievances.” As a prognosis, he argues that the conflict will result in a fundamental transformation in the European security architecture.


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Today, the Ukraine conflict has attracted the world’s attention. Ukrainians and Russians all belonging to the same Slav nationality, why this taking up of arms against each other. There is a series of deep-seated causes behind it.

近日,俄乌冲突引发全球关注。俄乌同属斯拉夫民族,缘何兵戎相见,背后有一系列深层次的动因。

The conflict in Ukraine is a concentrated manifestation of the development and worsening of the contradictions in bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine since the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. The crisis in Ukraine in 2014 initiated the process of deterioration of bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine, especially after the referendum in Crimea on integration into Russia, which kept the two countries in a state of hostility over a long period. This was coupled with the secessionist tendencies in the eastern part of Ukraine and Russia’s support for the two “republics” in eastern Ukraine, which deepened the military confrontation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. These were all a prelude and rehearsal for the outbreak of today’s Russia-Ukraine conflict. The core of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lies in three issues: First, the issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership. Second, the issue of territorial disputes in Crimea and the independence of the eastern part of the country. Third, the issue of Russia’s security claims. Ukraine has been seeking to join NATO since the time of its second president, Leonid Kuchma [July 1994 to January 2005], and now NATO membership has been written into the Ukrainian Constitution. Ukraine believes that only NATO membership can guarantee national sovereignty and prevent the Russian threat. Ukraine’s active demand for NATO membership is strongly opposed by Russia, and the game of eastward expansion and counter-eastward expansion between the two sides has become a focal point of conflict. For Russia, Ukraine, a country of geostrategic importance in the Soviet Union, joining NATO would be a direct threat to Russian security. In the face of NATO’s continuous eastward expansion after the Cold War, Russia wants to have enough of a strategic buffer zone on its western border, and thus, Russia will not agree to Ukraine’s joining NATO no matter what. In addition, the Crimea issue has been a major problem between Russia and Ukraine from the start. Ukraine has never given up its territorial claims to Crimea and strongly opposes the independence of the two “republics” in the east of the country. Russia is worried that Ukraine will use NATO’s collective defense force to try to take back Crimea and increase its offensive efforts in the east of the country after joining NATO, so it has preempted Ukraine by first recognizing the independence of the two eastern Ukraine “republics,” and then implementing a special military operation to force Ukraine to surrender, promote peace through war, and thereby achieve its strategic goals.

俄乌冲突是2014年乌克兰危机以来俄乌双边关系矛盾发展并恶化的集中体现。2014年乌克兰危机开启了俄罗斯与乌克兰双边关系恶化的进程,尤其是克里米亚全民公投并入俄罗斯之后使得两国关系长期处于敌对状态,再加上乌东地区的分离倾向以及俄罗斯对乌东两个“共和国”的支持,加深了俄乌边境军事对抗局面,这些都是今日俄乌冲突爆发的前奏与预演。俄乌矛盾的核心在于:第一,乌克兰的北约成员国地位问题。第二,克里米亚的领土纠纷及乌东地区的独立问题。第三,俄罗斯的安全诉求问题。乌克兰从第二任总统库奇马时期就开始寻求加入北约,目前,加入北约已写入乌克兰宪法,乌克兰认为只有加入北约才能保障国家主权,才能防止俄罗斯的威胁。乌克兰积极要求加入北约遭到了俄罗斯的强烈反对,双方之间东扩与反东扩的博弈成为矛盾的焦点问题。对于俄罗斯来说,乌克兰作为苏联地区有重要地缘战略意义的国家,加入北约将是对俄罗斯直接的安全威胁。面对冷战后北约的不断东扩,俄罗斯希望在其西部边界足够的战略缓冲地带,因而,俄罗斯是无论如何不会同意乌克兰加入北约的。此外,克里米亚问题始终是横梗在俄乌两国之间的一大难题,乌克兰也始终没有放弃对克里米亚的领土诉求,也强烈反对乌东两个“共和国”的独立,俄罗斯则担心乌克兰加入北约后会利用北约的集体防御力量试图收回克里米亚,加大对乌东地区的进攻力度,因而先发制人,首先承认乌东两个“共和国”的独立,再实施特别军事行动逼迫乌克兰,以战逼降,以战促和,从而实现自身的战略目的。

The United States and NATO must bear responsibility for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This conflict is also the inevitable result of the long-term squeezing of Russia’s security space by the United States and NATO. Viewed externally, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also the result of the United States and NATO adding fuel to the fire with their long-term push to undermine and weaken Russia, and reflects the long-standing historical grievances between Russia and the United States and NATO. In the three decades since the end of the Cold War, except for a brief honeymoon period, Russia-United States relations have basically developed against a background of constant confrontation. After the 2014 Ukraine crisis, Russia-U.S. relations have moved toward spiraling hostility. Political denigration, diplomatic expulsions, economic sanctions, military confrontation, sanctions and counter-sanctions, containment and counter-containment, and deterrence and counter-deterrence are the norm in the development of Russia-U.S. relations. In the framework of great power competition and confrontation between Russia and the United States, Ukraine is a pawn of the United States and the West for confronting Russia, and a large amount of U.S. and NATO military aid and economic aid, including offensive weapons, have entered Ukraine. NATO follows the U.S. policy of undermining and weakening Russia and carries out military deterrence and front-line confrontation against Russia, which greatly threatens Russia’s security interests. Overall, the negative role of the United States and NATO in the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is reflected in three ways: First, irritating Russia’s sensitive security nerves. Second, supporting Ukraine against Russia. Third, artificially promoting the escalation of tensions and indirectly promoting the outbreak of conflict. Russia is a country that is particularly sensitive to security issues. Historically, its location on the vast plains of Eastern Europe has allowed both Eastern nomads and Western colonizers to drive straight in. Since Peter the Great, it has been pursuing access to the sea, pioneering frontiers, and opening up new territory, creating a vast space for Russia. However, this vastness breeds insecurity, which in turn drives Russia to again look for more space, and Russians are therefore inherently insecure. After the end of the Cold War, Russia generally believed that the West had promised that NATO would not expand eastward, but five consecutive rounds of expansion, with 11 Central and Eastern European and former Soviet countries joining NATO and military fronts deployed closer to Russia, have greatly irritated Russia’s nerves. Since Biden came into office, he has reintegrated the transatlantic alliance, counteracted Russia through NATO collectively, and conducted forward confrontation through a series of military exercises, with the threat and shadow of conflict always present. In addition, the United States and NATO also took advantage of Ukraine’s eager desire to join NATO to support Ukraine against Russia. Before the outbreak of the conflict, a large amount of military equipment and offensive weapons entered Ukraine. At the same time, they also directly deployed military forces in the territory of NATO member states in Eastern Europe, and also deliberately created rumors of conflict to artificially raise tensions and indirectly promote the outbreak of conflict.

美国及北约在俄乌冲突爆发过程中应负难以推卸的责任,这场冲突也是美国及北约长期挤压俄罗斯安全空间的必然结果。从外部来看,俄乌冲突的爆发也是美国及北约推波助澜、长期推行削俄弱俄的结果,反映了俄罗斯与美国及北约之间长期的历史积怨。冷战结束以来的三十年,除了短暂的蜜月期外,俄美关系基本上是在不断对抗的背景下发展。乌克兰危机后,俄美关系更是走向一个螺旋上升的敌对状态,双方之间政治上诋毁,外交上驱逐,经济上制裁,军事上对抗,制裁与反制裁,遏制与反遏制,威慑与反威慑是俄美关系发展的常态。在俄美大国竞争与对抗框架下,乌克兰就是美西方对抗俄罗斯的一枚棋子,美国及北约大量的军事援助、经济援助,包括进攻性武器都进入乌克兰。北约跟随美国的削俄弱俄政策,对俄进行军事威慑与前沿对抗,极大地威胁俄罗斯的安全利益。总体来看,美国及北约在俄乌冲突爆发中的负面角色体现在:第一,刺激俄罗斯敏感的安全神经。第二,支持乌克兰对抗俄罗斯。第三,人为推动紧张局势升级,间接推动冲突爆发。俄罗斯是一个对安全问题格外敏感的国家,从历史上看,地处东欧大平原使得无论是东方游牧民族还是西方殖民者都可以长驱直入,从彼得大帝以来就开始追求出海口,开疆拓土,并造就了俄国广袤的空间。然而身处这一广袤的空间又会滋生不安全感,进而再度驱使俄国去寻找更大的空间,因而,俄国人的不安全感是与生俱来的。冷战结束后,俄罗斯普遍认为西方有过关于北约不向东扩大的承诺,然而,北约连续进行了五轮扩大,11个中东欧及前苏联国家相继加入北约,军事前沿部署不断逼近俄罗斯,极大地刺激俄罗斯的紧张神经。拜登上台以来,重新整合跨大西洋同盟,通过北约集体来抗衡俄罗斯,通过系列军事演习进行前沿对抗,冲突威胁与阴影始终存在。此外,美国及北约还利用乌克兰加入北约的急切愿望来支持乌克兰对抗俄罗斯,冲突爆发前,大量的军事装备、进攻性武器进入乌克兰,同时还在欧洲东部北约成员国境内直接部署军事力量,还蓄意制造冲突谣言,人为提升紧张局势,间接推动冲突爆发。

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not only have a profound impact on the European security structure and Eurasian geopolitics, but will also reshape the global geopolitical landscape to a certain degree. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will bring about fundamental changes in the European security landscape and structure, and make the geopolitics of the Eurasian region move toward a return of the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War, a new problem for the European security structure based on the United States control of European security affairs was how to assure Russia’s security demands. The common European homeland that began to be advocated toward the end of Soviet Union—a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals—was obviously only a utopian fantasy, and not only was it impossible for Russia to integrate into the original European security system, but it was gradually excluded. That is, in Russia’s view, Europe’s security is divided security, the security of the United States and NATO is based on Russia’s insecurity, and Russia’s security concerns have not taken seriously for a long time. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a general outbreak of Russia’s security contradictions with the United States and NATO have intensified to a certain extent, and signifies a return of Eurasian geopolitics to the Cold War. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also have a profound impact on global geopolitics. Russia-U.S. relations in particular will see the most fundamental changes since the end of the Cold War. The original dialogue mechanisms between Russia and the United States will all cease, and the unprecedented U.S. sanctions against Russia, including kicking Russia out of SWIFT and the sanctions against President Putin personally, plunge Russia-U.S. relations into a state of mutual hostility for a long time.

俄乌冲突的爆发不仅对欧洲安全结构与欧亚地缘政治有深刻的影响,也将在一定程度上重塑全球地缘政治格局。俄乌冲突将带来欧洲安全格局与结构的根本性改变,使得欧亚地区地缘政治走向冷战的回归。冷战结束后,欧洲安全结构在基于美国控制欧洲安全事务基础上的一个新问题就是如何保证俄罗斯的安全诉求?从苏联晚期开始倡导的欧洲共同家园,从大西洋到乌拉尔的欧洲显然只是一种乌托邦的幻想,俄罗斯不仅不可能融入原有的欧洲安全体系,反而逐渐被排除在外,也即,在俄罗斯看来,欧洲的安全是分割的,美国及北约的安全是建立在俄罗斯的不安全基础之上,俄罗斯的安全关切长期得不到重视。因此,俄乌冲突就是俄罗斯与美国、北约安全矛盾激化到一定程度的总爆发,标志着欧亚地缘政治重新走向冷战的回归。俄乌冲突的爆发也将给全球地缘政治带来深刻的影响,其中俄美关系将发生自冷战结束以来最本质性的变化,俄美之间原有的对话机制全部停止,美国对俄罗斯前所未有的制裁,包括将俄罗斯踢出环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)以及对普京总统个人的制裁将使得俄美关系长期陷入相互敌对状态,俄罗斯与美国及西方的对抗将极大影响国际政治原有的和平与发展的政治生态,世界政治经济的发展将进入一个新的时代。

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刘军 (Liu Jun). "The Deep-Seated Causes Behind the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Effects [俄乌冲突背后的深层次动因及其影响]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in China Social Sciences Network [中国社会科学网], March 1, 2022

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