西方金融制裁将使俄罗斯面临长久的考验
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Western Financial Sanctions Will Put Russia to a Lengthy Test

西方金融制裁将使俄罗斯面临长久的考验

Although Russia prepared its economy to withstand the effects Western sanctions in the past, the harsher measures imposed as a result of the war in Ukraine may lead to long-term economic woes, argues a Eurasia researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a leading think tank overseen by the Ministry of State Security.


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On February 21, Russia announced its recognition of the “independence” of two republics in eastern Ukraine, prompting the United States, the European Union, Britain, Canada and other parties to introduce multiple rounds of “devastating” economic sanctions against Russia, with unprecedented intensity and breadth. Russia’s financial, defense, energy, industrial, aviation and other pillar industries were hit with precision, assets of relevant departments and institutions in the United States and Europe were frozen, access to Western funds, technology, and key equipment was shut off, and some institutions have been restricted in their ability to trade in U.S. dollars, euros, pounds, and yen. The goal of the West’s economic sanctions is to isolate Russia from the global economic and financial system through external pressure without resorting to military means, and in turn affect Russia’s economic and social stability, thereby curbing the actions of the Russian government. As sanctions gradually escalate, the Russian economy will come under increasing pressure.

2月21日,俄罗斯宣布承认乌克兰东部两个共和国“独立”,触发美国、欧盟、英国、加拿大等各方相继出台多轮对俄“毁灭性”经济制裁,力度和广度超过以往。俄金融、国防、能源、工业、航空等支柱性行业遭到精准打击,相关部门和机构在美、欧等地资产被冻结,获取西方资金、技术、关键设备的渠道被关闭,部分机构使用美元、欧元、英镑和日元交易的能力受到限制。西方经济制裁的目标是在不动用军事手段的情况下通过外部施压,将俄罗斯与全球经济和金融系统隔离,进而影响俄经济和社会稳定,并以此遏制俄政府行动。随着制裁逐步升级,俄经济承受的压力将越来越大。

Since the Crimea incident in 2014, the United States together with other Western countries have imposed hundreds of rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, and have repeatedly threatened to kick Russia out of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), cutting Russia off from the global financial system. Facing a long-term financial and technological blockade, Russia has taken systematic counter-sanction measures, aggressively strengthened its defense capabilities, built an “anti-crisis firewall,” and significantly improved its economic security.

自2014年克里米亚事件以来,美国联合西方国家对俄罗斯实施了上百轮经济制裁,多次威胁将俄踢出环球银行金融电讯协会(SWIFT),切断俄与全球金融系统的联系。面对长期的资金和技术封锁,俄罗斯采取了系统性的反制裁措施,积极加强防御能力,构筑了一道“反危机防火墙”,经济安全水平得到明显提升。

On one hand, Russia has established a crisis prevention “airbag.” The Russian government has adhered to prudent and conservative fiscal policies, strictly controlled budget expenditures, converted a large amount of oil and gas revenues into strategic reserves, and accumulated sufficient anti-crisis funds. Currently, Russia’s gold reserves total nearly US$650 billion, or about one-third of its GDP, which is enough for it to cope with its foreign debt. In the event of economic turmoil, Russia will use these reserves to support residents and businesses and maintain basic macroeconomic and financial stability.

一方面,俄罗斯建立了防范危机的“安全囊”。俄政府坚持稳健保守的财政政策,严格控制预算支出,将大量油气收入转化为战略储备,积累了充裕的反危机资金。当前,俄黄金外汇储备总额将近6500亿美元,约为其GDP的三分之一,足以负担外债。一旦发生经济动荡,俄将利用这些储备支持居民和企业,维持基本的宏观经济和金融稳定。

In response to the threat of “disconnection from SWIFT,” Russia has established an alternative financial infrastructure, including a Russian version of SWIFT—the Financial Message Transfer System (SPFS)—and a Russian national credit card payment system (Mir). The SPFS serves more than 300 financial institutions and businesses in Russia and over 20 institutions from Eurasian Economic Union countries, Turkey, and other countries. Mir credit cards account for about one-third of the credit card market in Russia.

针对“与SWIFT系统断开”的威胁,俄建立了替代性的金融基础设施,包括俄版SWIFT——金融信息传输系统(SPFS),以及俄国家信用卡支付系统(MIR)。SPFS可为俄三百多家金融机构和企业,以及来自欧亚经济联盟国家、土耳其等国的二十余家机构提供服务。MIR信用卡则占据了俄约三分之一的信用卡市场份额。

On the other hand, Russia has shifted its financing and trade channels to domestic and non-Western markets. With its access to Western markets blocked, Russia has adjusted its development strategy to rely more on domestic resources and non-Western markets. Internally, Russia is actively developing financial resources, stimulating domestic investment, and steadily promoting import substitution in industry and agriculture, thereby significantly increasing local production and reducing dependence on the West for food, technology, and key components. Externally, Russia has built a network of economic partners based on security needs. While strengthening economic ties with its main trading partner, the European Union, it has vigorously explored non-Western markets and developed cooperation with partner countries on payment system docking and local currency settlement, so as to minimize the proportion of dollar settlements.

另一方面,俄将融资和贸易渠道转向国内和非西方市场。由于进入西方市场受阻,俄罗斯调整发展战略,更加倚重国内资源和非西方市场。对内,俄积极开发金融市场资源,刺激国内投资,稳步推进工农业进口替代,大幅提升本地化生产水平,降低食品、技术和关键部件对西方国家的依赖。对外,俄立足安全需要构筑经济伙伴网络,在增强与主要贸易伙伴欧盟的经济捆绑的同时,大力开拓非西方市场,并与伙伴国家开展支付系统对接、本币结算等合作,尽量降低美元结算比例。

In addition to preparing a counter-sanctions toolbox, Russia’s strength in dealing with economic sanctions lies in its close and intricate ties with the world economy. As a leading exporter of energy, food, metals and other commodities, Russia is deeply involved in the world economy and has become an important link in the global supply chain. This makes Russia’s economy highly vulnerable to the external environment, but at the same time it gives Russia strong bargaining chips for influencing world markets, and an effective “weapon” against being “delisted” from SWIFT.

除了准备反制裁工具箱之外,俄罗斯应对经济制裁的底气还在于与世界经济千丝万缕的联系。作为世界主要的能源、粮食、金属等大宗商品的出口国,俄罗斯已经深深卷入世界经济,成为全球供应链条的重要一环。这虽使俄经济极易受到外部环境影响,但同时赋予俄影响世界市场的有力筹码和防止被SWIFT“除名”的有效“武器”。

If Russia is kicked out of SWIFT, or if other sanctions are imposed on Russia affecting energy and raw materials transactions, global markets will be affected by the collateral effects, and the “double-edged sword” of sanctions will hurt their initiators. This is the fundamental reason why the United States, Europe, and other Western countries are reluctant to completely isolate Russia. For the above reasons, under conventional sanctions conditions, Russia’s precautionary measures can partially weaken the effectiveness of Western sanctions. According to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the government has been preparing for its operation in Ukraine for months, and is ready to deal with the economic consequences of Western sanctions.

如果将俄踢出SWIFT系统,或对俄施加的其他制裁影响到能源和原材料交易,那么全球市场将受到连带影响,制裁发起者也将被制裁“双刃剑”伤害。这是美欧等西方国家迟迟不愿将俄罗斯彻底孤立的根本所在。基于上述原因,在常规的制裁条件下,俄罗斯的防范措施可以部分削弱西方制裁的效力。据俄总理米舒斯京透露,政府为在乌克兰的行动进行了几个月的准备,已经准备好应对西方制裁的经济后果。

However, the sanctions war between Russia and the West is intensifying as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates. The threat of the West taking extreme measures appears to be moving toward reality. On February 26, the United States, together with the European Union, Britain, and Canada, issued a joint statement announcing measures to exclude sanctioned Russian banks from the SWIFT system in the coming days, as well as plans to sanction the Russian central bank and “paralyze” Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. The introduction of harsher sanctions by the West in the future is not ruled out. Once the statement becomes a reality, Russia will be hit hard.

然而,随着俄乌战事升级,俄罗斯与西方之间的制裁战愈演愈烈。西方采取极端措施的威胁似乎正在走向现实。2月26日,美国与欧盟、英国和加拿大发表共同声明,宣布将在未来几天采取措施,将俄受制裁的银行排除在SWIFT系统之外,并计划制裁俄央行,使俄外汇储备“瘫痪”。未来不排除西方将出台更加严厉的制裁。一旦声明落地成为现实,俄罗斯将受到严重打击。

First, Russia’s alternative measures still has many limitations. Currently, only 20.6% of Russia’s total financial information is handled by the Russian SPFS system, and most transactions are still handled by SWIFT. At the same time, although the SPFS can provide services to the majority of Russian banks, not many foreign institutions have joined it, and its coverage abroad is not high either. This means that Russia’s alternative measures can only guarantee basic transactions within Russia, and cross-border transactions by sanctioned institutions will not be possible.

首先,俄版替代措施仍存在诸多局限性。目前,由俄SPFS系统处理的金融信息仅为俄金融信息总量的20.6%,大部分交易仍由SWIFT处理。同时,SPFS虽能为绝大部分俄本土银行提供服务,但加入其中的外国机构不多,其在国外的覆盖率也不高。这意味着,俄版替代措施仅能保障俄国内基本交易,被制裁机构的跨境交易将无法进行。

Second, Western sanctions against the Russian central bank will weaken Russia’s ability to maintain financial stability. As of early January 2021, the Russian Central Bank’s total assets in the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Austria, and other Western jurisdictions amounted to about one-third of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves. The structure of foreign exchange assets in 2022 will not have changed significantly. If the Russian Central Bank’s assets in Western countries are frozen, the funds that Russia uses to support the ruble exchange rate and to assist financial institutions and businesses will be severely curtailed. Financial risks, such as ruble devaluation, high inflation, and reduced solvency of governments and enterprises, will rise accordingly.

第二,西方对俄央行的制裁将削弱俄维持金融稳定的能力。截至2021年1月初,俄央行位于美国、德国、法国、英国、奥地利等西方国家管辖区的资产总量约为俄黄金外汇储备的三分之一。2022年的外汇资产结构不会发生大幅变化。如果俄央行在西方国家的资产被冻结,那么俄用于支持卢布汇率、援助金融机构和企业的资金将严重缩水。卢布贬值、通胀高企、政企偿债能力下降等金融风险将相应上升。

Overall, Western sanctions against Russia thus far have not reached a level that will do Russia serious bodily harm. Russia is still able to maintain normal energy trade and maintain basic ties with the world financial system. However, against the background of financial sanctions and export controls, the business environment in Russia will further deteriorate, and international investors are bound to reduce their business in Russia and withdraw their investments there. Russia will need to digest the consequences of Western sanctions over a relatively long period of time, and economic revitalization will encounter greater resistance and uncertainty.

总体看,西方对俄制裁暂时未达到使俄伤筋动骨的程度。俄依然能够维持正常的能源贸易,保持与世界金融体系的基本联系。但是在金融制裁和出口管制的背景下,俄营商环境将进一步恶化,国际投资者必将减少在俄业务,撤出在俄投资。俄须在较长时期内消化西方制裁后果,经济振兴将遭遇更大的阻力和不确定性。

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Cite This Page

韩奕琛 (Han Yichen). "Western Financial Sanctions Will Put Russia to a Lengthy Test [西方金融制裁将使俄罗斯面临长久的考验]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in China Internet Information Center [中国网], February 28, 2022

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