This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) Cooperation Mechanism. Over the past 10 years, what irreplaceable role has this mechanism played in promoting relations between China and Central and Eastern European countries? How are things today? Looking into the future, how will the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism continue to be deepened and solidified and how can it continue to serve the overall development of China-CEEC relations and even China-EU relations? Focusing on the above issues, some members of the Fudan Europe Watch academic community (an academic community spontaneously formed by young scholars of European issues at Fudan University) and special guests conducted in-depth discussions on this issue and expressed their views as follows.
今年是中国-中东欧合作机制成立第10年。这10年来,该机制在推动中国与中东欧国家关系方面发挥了何种不可替代的作用?现状如何?放眼未来,中国-中东欧合作机制将如何继续走深走实,继续服务于中国-中东欧国家关系乃至中欧关系发展大局?围绕上述问题,“复旦欧洲观察”学术共同体(由复旦大学欧洲问题研究中青年学者自发组成的一个学术共同体)部分成员和特邀嘉宾就此进行了深入探讨,并发表各自观点如下。
Brief introduction of the experts of the Fudan Europe Watch academic community (in no particular order):
“复旦欧洲观察”学术共同体本文专家简介(排名不分先后):
Jian Junbo: Deputy Director and Associate Researcher of the Center for China-EU Relations, Fudan University
简军波:复旦大学中欧关系研究中心副主任、副研究员
Ma Bin: Associate Researcher, Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan University
马斌:复旦大学俄罗斯中亚研究中心副研究员
Peng Chongzhou: Postdoctoral Fellow, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University
彭重周:复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士后
Special guests: (in no particular order):
特邀嘉宾:(排名不分先后):
Gao Xiaochuan: Deputy Director and Associate Researcher, Center for Central and Eastern European Studies, East China Normal University
高晓川:华东师范大学中东欧研究中心副主任、副研究员
Song Lilei: Professor of School of Politics and International Relations, Tongji University, Deputy Director of Center for European Studies
宋黎磊:同济大学政治与国际关系学院教授、欧洲研究中心副主任
Achievements and Challenges of China-CEEC in the Past 10 Years
中国-中东欧合作10年来的成果与挑战
Jian Junbo: The China-CEEC mechanism has developed and achieved fruitful results in the past 10 years, mainly as follows:
简军波:中国-中东欧合作机制发展到今天,10年里取得了丰硕成果,主要表现为:
First, through deliberate strengthening of economic and trade ties, it has effectively promoted the development of economic and trade relations between China and the entire CEE region in multiple levels, fields, and forms. It is a model of a multilateral cooperation mechanism for equal development.
第一,通过有意加强经贸联系,有效推动了中国和整个中东欧地区的经贸关系在多层次、多领域、多形式上的发展,成为中欧经贸关系的重要补充,也成为了“大国-地区”平等发展多边主义合作机制的典范。
Second, through various high-level official communication channels, the political relationship between China and some small and medium-sized European countries has been effectively strengthened, and the development of comprehensive relations has been promoted through this, which has become a beneficial and irreplaceable supplement to the overall relationship between China and Europe.
第二,通过各类高层次官方沟通渠道,有效加强了中国与欧洲一些中小国家的政治关系,并借此推动了全面关系发展,成为中欧整体关系有益和不可替代的补充。
Third, through the opening of various interconnection projects, countries in Central and Eastern Europe have been effectively absorbed into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has promoted the integration of this region with core developed regions in Europe and has become an important platform for promoting the BRI.
第三,通过开放各类互联互通项目,有效吸纳中东欧地区国家加入“一带一路”倡议项目,促进了该地区与欧洲核心发达地区的融合,成为推动“一带一路”倡议的重要平台。
Fourth, through the strengthening of bilateral economic and trade relations, the economic prosperity of Central and Eastern European countries has been promoted, and China’s economic opening to the outside world has also been promoted.
第四,通过强化双方经贸关系,促进了中东欧国家经济繁荣,也促进了中国对外经济开放。
Fifth, it is beneficial to the mutual understanding between the people of China and the region as a whole and promotes the progress of education and S&T for both sides.
第五,它在整体上有益于中国与该地区人民相互了解,促进双方教育和科技进步。
Sixth, and perhaps most importantly, it has enhanced the status and influence of the Central and Eastern European region in Europe and the international community, and it has also transformed the relationship between China and the region from a status of obscurity to being well-known and increasingly important.
第六,可能最重要的是,它提升了中东欧地区在欧洲乃至国际社会的地位和影响力,也让中国和该地区的关系从默默无闻变得众所周知,并日益重要。
However, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the development of the mechanism, in the context of the highly complex international situation, it has also encountered some challenges. First, it requires a particularly clear strategic line to guide development over the next decade. Second, the stability and sustainability of the mechanism must be strengthened. Third, the EU’s doubts about the existence of the mechanism need to be dispelled. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out appropriate reforms so that the mechanism can continue to play its due role.
不过该机制发展10周年之际,在高度复杂的国际局势背景下,它也遭遇了一些挑战,一是需要一条特别明确的战略路线为下一个十年发展作指导;二是该机制的稳定性和可持续性需要加强;三是需要打消欧盟对该机制存续的疑虑。因此,有必要进行适当改革,继续使该机制发挥其应有的作用。
Gao Xiaochuan: Against the backdrop of new changes in the relationship between major powers, China-CEEC cooperation has entered its tenth year. As a new paradigm of trans-regional multilateral cooperation, this mechanism has played a positive role in expanding multilateral diplomacy and practical cooperation between China and CEEC. At present, with the United States increasing its strategic reliance on Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union’s prominent geopolitical role, the internal and external environments of Central and Eastern Europe are becoming more complex. In the process of deepening China-CEEC cooperation, external contradictory and restrictive factors are becoming more and more prominent. Against this background, the question of how to strengthen the role of the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism is worthy of in-depth consideration.
高晓川:在当前大国关系出现新变局背景下,中国-中东欧合作跨进第十个年头,作为新型跨区域多边合作范式,这一机制为拓展中国与中东欧国家的多边外交与务实合作发挥了积极作用。当前,在美国加大对中东欧战略倚重以及欧盟突出地缘政治作用背景下,中东欧地区内外部环境趋向复杂。深化中国-中东欧合作中的外部性矛盾制约因素愈加突出,在这一背景下,如何强化中国-中东欧合作机制作用值得深入思考。
Peng Chongzhou: The formal establishment of the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism in 2012 has made China a pivotal country in the CEEC region and provided a basic framework for China to develop relations with CEECs. At the same time, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism has played a role in promoting the friendly attitude of Hungary and other countries towards China. Therefore, although Chinese officials have always emphasized that the cooperation mechanism is a mutually beneficial mechanism dedicated to the development of economic exchanges, its positive role in promoting political relations between China and CEECs cannot be ignored.
彭重周:2012年中国-中东欧合作机制的正式建立使中国一跃成为了中东欧地区举足轻重的国家,也为中国发展与中东欧国家的关系提供了基本框架。同时,中国-中东欧合作机制对匈牙利等国对华友善态度起到了促进作用。因此,尽管中国官方一直强调合作机制是致力于发展经济往来的互惠机制,但其对中国与中东欧国家政治关系的良性促进作用不容忽略。
In recent years, there are two main sources of difficulties encountered by the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism. First of all, the main original intention of the CEECs when the mechanism was established was to attract Chinese investment to develop their own economies and reduce their dependence on Western European countries. However, the economic benefits brought by the cooperation mechanism are not yet significant. However, since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the bilateral trade between China and CEECs has grown significantly against the trend. In 2021, it increased by 29.7%, reaching US$124.02 billion, accounting for 15% of the total bilateral trade between China and Europe. At the same time, however, due to the trade deficit with China, some countries face a certain gap between their expectations and reality.
近年来,中国-中东欧合作机制遇到的困难主要有2个来源。首先,中东欧国家在机制建立时的主要初衷是吸引中国投资以发展本国经济,减少对西欧国家的依赖。但目前合作机制所带来的经济效益尚不显著。不过自2020年新冠疫情暴发以来,中国与中东欧国家双边贸易逆势大幅增长,2021年更是大幅增长29.7%,达1240.2亿美元,占中欧双边贸易总额15%。但同时,一些国家由于对华贸易逆差,使它们的预期与实际出现了一定落差。
Second, the rampant value diplomacy in Europe has also had a certain impact on the cooperation mechanism.
其次,价值观外交在欧洲横行也对合作机制造成了一定冲击。
Song Lilei: Historically, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism has strengthened China’s influence in the region and has strengthened China’s strategic relevance and integration of interests with small and medium-sized CEECs. At the same time, relying on this platform, China has clarified its position and attitude on issues such as global governance, the maintenance of trade liberalization, and regional economic integration. In terms of economics, it has also deepened the depression of China-EU cooperation, including policy preference for EU candidate countries such as southeastern Europe.
宋黎磊:历史地看,中国-中东欧合作机制加强了中国在该地区的影响力,加强了与中东欧中小国家的战略关联度和利益融合。与此同时,依托该平台在全球治理、维护贸易自由化、区域经济一体化等议题上阐明了中国的立场与态度。在经济上,也加深了对中欧合作的洼地,包括对东南欧等欧盟候选国的政策倾斜。
How will the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism continue to deepen and become more solid in the future?
中国-中东欧合作机制未来如何继续走深走实?
Peng Chongzhou: The impact of value diplomacy cannot cover up the rapid development of economic and trade relations between China and Central and Eastern Europe in the past two years. Therefore, first of all, we must carefully study the factors that promote the substantial growth of economic and trade exchanges between China and Central and Eastern Europe, so as to provide guidance for the further development of economic and trade relations. Second, for the five Western Balkan countries and EU member states, different development paths should be sought. For the Western Balkan countries, since they have not joined the European Union and have an urgent need for infrastructure investment, further implementation of investment in infrastructure projects under the framework of China-CEEC cooperation is the focus of cooperation with these countries.
彭重周:价值观外交的冲击不能掩盖中国与中东欧经贸关系近两年的高速发展。因此,首先要仔细研究推动中国与中东欧经贸往来大幅增长的因素,为进一步发展经贸关系提供指南。其次,对于西巴尔干五国和欧盟成员国,要寻求不同的发展路径。对于西巴尔干国家,由于其未加入欧盟,且对基建投资有较迫切的需求,在中国-中东欧合作框架下进一步落实基建项目投资是与这些国家合作的重点。
For the EU member states in the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism, the consistency of their internal regulations and standards with the EU means that traditional Chinese investment fields such as infrastructure are difficult to enter on a large scale. Therefore, as President Xi Jinping pointed out at the 2021 China-CEEC Summit, promoting China’s imports from these countries and developing balanced trade are the focus for next steps. In addition, people-to-people and cultural exchanges and cooperation in scientific research institutions, academic institutions, and enterprises should be further developed to offset the negative impact of value diplomacy.
对中国-中东欧合作机制中的欧盟成员国,其内部法规和标准与欧盟的一致性意味着基建等中国传统投资领域难以大规模进入。因此正如习近平主席在2021年中国-中东欧领导人峰会上指出,推动中国从这些国家的进口,发展平衡贸易是下一步的重点。此外,还应进一步发展科研机构、学术机构、企业等方面的人文交流和合作,以此对冲价值观外交的负面影响。
Ma Bin: At present, the key to the development of the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism is to enhance its independence and openness, to be able to base itself on reality, to rely on the practical problems encountered in the development of relations between China and CEECs, and to allow it to play its own unique role. The key is to move from the virtual to the real and to establish a mechanism within the framework of the cooperation mechanism that can play the role of guidance, coordination, and consultation which can then be used as a platform to carry out daily work and serve the development of relations between China and CEECs.
马斌:目前,中国-中东欧合作机制发展的关键在于增强它的独立性、开放性,能够立足于现实,依托中国与中东欧国家关系发展中遭遇的现实问题,发挥自身的独特作用。其关键在于脱虚向实,在合作机制框架内建立能够发挥引导、协调、磋商等作用的机制,以此作为平台开展日常工作,服务中国与中东欧国家关系的发展。
Considering the changes in China-EU relations, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism must be adjusted in at least the following three aspects to adapt to changes in the environment. The first is to strengthen problem orientation, solidify the mechanism, prevent waste of resources, and focus on solving practical obstacles or difficulties in the development of relations between China and CEECs. The second is to serve China-Europe relations, that is, the development of relations between China and CEECs must obey and serve the healthy growth of the relationship between China and Europe such that this cooperation mechanism can become a useful supplement to the development of China-EU relations. Both China and CEECs should handle issues as responsible members of the international community and beware of political manipulation affecting the development of bilateral relations. The third is to adjust responses to multiple issues, that is, to recognize that different issues such as in politics, economics, society, security, and strategy are mutually reinforcing but they cannot replace one another. As such, we must avoid the one-sided thinking of “place the economy first.”
考虑到中欧关系的变化,中国-中东欧合作机制至少要从以下三方面进行调整,以适应环境的变化。一是加强问题导向,使机制走实,防止资源浪费,着力解决中国与中东欧国家关系发展面临的实际障碍或难题;二是服务中欧关系,即中国与中东欧关系发展要服从和服务于中欧关系的健康成长,使该合作机制成为中欧关系发展的有益补充。中国和中东欧国家都要以负责任的国际社会成员的角色来处理问题,提防政治操纵影响双方关系发展;三是调适多元议题,即认可政治、经济、社会、安全、战略等不同议题相互促进,但不能相互替代,避免“经济至上”的片面思维。
Song Lilei: As the United States and other external forces continue to intervene in Central and Eastern Europe, China should subdivide the cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Europe, pay attention to communication and coordination with the European Union, and actively communicate and negotiate with regional organizations such as the cooperation process in Southeast Europe and the Three Seas Initiative (Editor’s Note: The “Three Seas Initiative” refers to the Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea, and Black Sea Initiative. Proposed by Croatia and Poland in 2015, the initiative aims at strengthening trade, infrastructure, energy, and political cooperation among countries in the region. Members include 12 Central and Eastern European countries including Poland, Croatia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary).
宋黎磊:在美国等外部力量持续介入中东欧之际,我国宜将中国-中东欧合作细分,注重和欧盟等的沟通协调,还有积极与东南欧合作进程、“三海倡议”等一些地区性的组织的沟通协商(编注:“三海倡议”即波罗的海、亚得里亚海和黑海倡议,由克罗地亚和波兰两国于2015年提出,旨在加强地区国家间贸易、基础设施、能源和政治合作,成员国包括波兰、克罗地亚、保加利亚、捷克、匈牙利等12个中东欧国家)。
In addition, we must pay more attention to deeper cooperation and rely on local cooperation. Zhejiang is an example of local cooperation and has become the vanguard of local cooperation between China and CEECs. In addition, people-to-people exchanges with CEECs should continue to be promoted, especially with continuous cooperation in cultural and educational exchanges. In particular, educational cooperation and exchanges have been fruitful, and it is the most direct way to promote mutual understanding between Chinese and Central and Eastern European peoples.
另外,更加注重合作下沉,依托地方合作。浙江在中国与中东欧国家地方合作领域具有典型性,已成为中国与中东欧国家地方合作的排头兵。此外,应继续推进和中东欧国家的民间往来,特别是在人文交流、教育交流方面的持续合作。尤其是开展教育合作交流卓有成效,是促进中国与中东欧民众相互了解的最直接途径。
Gao Xiaochuan: China should continue to regard China-CEEC cooperation as a positive practice in promoting China’s new type of major-country diplomacy. Seizing the development opportunities in the post-pandemic period, China should combine the economic development strategies of most Central and Eastern European countries with a deepening of multilateral and bilateral practical cooperation to enhance endogenous driving forces for the development of relations with CEECs. This can give full play to the innovative and constructive role of the cooperation mechanism and provide a good example for major countries to carry out equal and friendly exchanges with small and medium-sized countries.
高晓川:中方宜继续把中国-中东欧合作作为推行中国新型大国外交的积极实践,抓住后疫情时期的发展机遇,结合多数中东欧国家经济发展战略,通过深化多双边务实合作增强与中东欧国家关系发展的内生动力,充分发挥合作机制的创新性和建设性作用,为大国开展与国际上中小国家间平等友好交流提供良好典范。
The path of deepening cooperation should adopt different methods according to the actual situations in different countries and should make full use of the new opportunities brought about by the new industrial policies of China and Europe in the post-pandemic period and the economic development strategies of CEECs to deepen practical cooperation. At the same time, China should consider taking more active measures to address the priority concerns of CEECs under the cooperation mechanism, enhance the strategic integration between China and CEECs in high value-added production chains, and strengthen the material basis for the stable development of China’s relations with them so as to clear bottlenecks between China and some CEECs. China should vigorously publicize the concepts behind the Belt and Road Initiative and China-CEEC cooperation for mutual benefit and coordinated development, continuously expand the international influence of China-CEEC cooperation under the framework of China-EU relations. China must establish more examples of cooperation with Hungary, Serbia, and Greece in CEECs and respond to the “Security Threat Theory” and “Exit Theory” in some countries with more fruitful cooperation results.
深化合作路径应根据不同国家实际情况采取不同方式,充分利用后疫情时期中欧产业新政策以及中东欧国家经济发展战略带来的新机遇深化务实合作。同时,考虑采取更多积极措施解决中东欧国家在合作机制下的优先关切,提升中国与中东欧国家在高附加值产业链中的战略融合,加固中国与其关系稳定发展的物质基础,以此疏通中国与部分中东欧国家合作中的堵点。大力度宣传“一带一路”倡议与中国-中东欧合作互利共赢、协同发展的理念,在中欧关系框架下不断扩大中国-中东欧合作的国际影响,在中东欧国家中更多树立如与匈、塞、希的合作典范,以更多有成效的合作成果回应一些国家暗流涌动的“安全威胁论”和“退出论”。
Jian Junbo: The trend of the times, the international situation, and the domestic situations of both sides are undergoing profound changes. The China-CEEC cooperation mechanism can be deepened and implemented on the basis of appropriate reforms.
简军波:时代潮流、国际局势和双方国内情况都在发生深刻变化,中国-中东欧合作机制可以在适当改革基础上更好走深走实。
First, the mechanism has played a huge role in the past decade, and it should continue to exist and play a greater role in the next ten years. Without the cooperation mechanism between China and Central and Eastern Europe, the economic and trade ties between China and CEECs, and even between China and many European countries, will lose momentum and opportunities for cooperation due to the loss of cooperation platforms, which will impact the current close China-CEEC cooperation. It is not in the interest of both parties, nor is it in the interest of the EU.
第一,前十年里,该机制发挥了巨大作用,今后十年,它应该继续存在并发挥更大作用。没有中国-中东欧合作机制,中国与中东欧国家乃至中国与许多欧洲国家的经贸联系将因失去合作平台而失去双方合作热情与机会,这会让当前紧密的中国-中东欧合作关系受到冲击,不符合双方利益,也不符合欧盟利益。
Second, the mechanism should be allowed to play a greater role in promoting mutual benefit and win-win results. Cooperation should continue to be based on a highly pragmatic basis in order to achieve the continuity of cooperation, which means that the two sides cooperate to meet the common interests of China and CEECs as the goal, care about one another, and strive to realize the interests of one another. Both sides should try to make cooperation meet the local or EU (China) laws and norms, make the cooperation conform to international standards, and even lead the cooperation trend of international standards. Both sides must cooperate to try to abandon any impractical or domestic or internationally controversial projects and must accept third-party economic participation when appropriate. In addition, to a certain extent, China should appropriately expand and equalize investment in CEECs, strengthen investment relations; and effectively increase the enthusiasm of more enterprises, groups, and local governments to participate in institutional cooperation projects.
第二,让该机制发挥更大作用以促进双方互利共赢。合作宜继续建立在高度务实基础之上,以实现合作的持续性,这意味着双方合作以满足中国和中东欧国家的共同利益为目标,彼此关切和努力实现对方的利益;尽量让合作满足当地或欧盟(中国)的法律与规范,使合作成为符合国际标准,甚至能引领国际标准的合作潮流;双方合作尽量摒弃任何不切实际或有国内国际争议的项目,适当时候接纳第三方经济参与;此外,在一定程度上,我国适当扩大和均化对中东欧投资,强化投资关系;切实提高更多企业、团体和地方政府参与机制合作项目的积极性。
Third, we should consider the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism within the framework of China-EU relations and the development of pluralist mechanisms in the CEEC region. In order to make this mechanism better promote and strengthen China-EU relations, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism can be moderately opened to the EU so that it can fully participate in mechanism cooperation projects and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results among the three parties. In addition, for both parties, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism is a platform for developing relations with one another, but it is not the only tool for developing bilateral relations. To this end, China should actively develop practical cooperative relations with CEECs bilaterally and through other multilateral mechanisms (such as the Three Seas Initiative) while actively utilizing the China-CEEC mechanism. In the next ten years, the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism will definitely develop better than today on the basis of openness, inclusiveness, and sustainability.
第三,将中国-中东欧合作机制置于中欧关系大局及中东欧地区多元主义机制发展框架内加以考虑。为了使该机制更好促进和强化中欧关系,中国-中东欧合作机制可适度向欧盟开放,使其更充分参与机制合作项目,实现三方互利共赢。另外,对双方而言,中国-中东欧合作机制是各自发展与对方关系的平台,但不是发展双边关系的唯一工具。为此,我国应在积极发挥中国-中东欧合作机制的同时,积极从双边和利用其他多边机制(如“三海倡议”等)发展与中东欧国家的务实合作关系。今后十年,中国-中东欧合作机制在开放、包容和可持续基础上,一定会比今天发展得更好。