大国博弈与全球治理中的“全球南方”
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The Global South in the Great Power Game and Global Governance

大国博弈与全球治理中的“全球南方”

Ren Lin, a global governance scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggests Washington is selectively engaging the Global South in ways designed to intensify contradictions and antagonisms between its membership. This strategy, Ren assesses, ultimately aims to isolate China and reduce the effectiveness of BRICS and other groups that threaten U.S. agenda-setting in global governance.


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The concept of the “Global South” has increasingly become a focus of international public attention in recent years. However, the international community has yet to reach a consensus on what the concept entails. Generally speaking, in international organizations, the term Global South tends to refer to developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, and there are both commonalities and differences with the concept of “countries of the South” by which countries have been designated in the post-World War II era. In terms of similarities, both emphasize that this group of countries has a similar geographic location, level of development, and historical experience, and both are used to describe developing countries located mainly in the southern hemisphere and the southern part of the northern hemisphere. From a historical perspective, these countries were colonized by developed countries, represented by the European countries, and this led to their poverty and weakness in modern times. In terms of differences, the term Global South adds the qualifier “global” to the term “countries of the South,” formally emphasizing the role of such countries in global affairs. More importantly, it gives the concept international political overtones. The international political overtones mentioned here are both neutral, initiated by developing countries in pursuit of fair and equitable treatment and rights, and non-neutral, initiated by established powers represented by the United States with the aim of increasing their control over the Global South and consolidating the hierarchical international order. The latter is the most important driving force behind the current trend of the “Global South,” as it implies a strong subjective intent on the part of the major Western developed countries, especially the United States.

近年来,“全球南方”概念愈发成为国际舆论的焦点。然而,围绕“全球南方”概念的内涵外延,国际社会并未形成共识性认定。一般来说,在国际组织中,“全球南方”往往指代非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲的发展中国家,与二战后各国认定的“南方国家”概念之间既存在共同点,又存在不同点。就相似点而言,二者都强调该国家群体具有相似的地理位置、发展水平和历史经历,皆用以描述主要处于北半球南部和南半球的发展中国家。从历史维度看,这些国家曾遭受过以欧洲国家为代表的发达国家的殖民统治,也因此形成了近现代积贫积弱的局面。就不同点而言,“全球南方”比“南方国家”多了一个“全球”的定语,在形式上强调了这类国家在全球事务中的作用,更重要的是给概念增加了国际政治的色彩。这里提及的国际政治色彩,既有中性色彩,由发展中国家发起,追求公正公平的待遇与权益;又包括非中性色彩,由美国为代表的既成大国发起,旨在增加对“全球南方”的掌控力,巩固等级制的国际秩序。后者系此轮“全球南方”热背后的最重要驱动力,蕴含着西方主要发达国家尤其是美国浓厚的主观意图。

The Global South is not a group of countries or international mechanism with clear membership, defined strategic objectives, or well-established institutions, but it has similar international political aspirations and is increasingly becoming a force to be reckoned with in global affairs. This is the main reason why the major developed countries, especially the United States, have begun to fear and emphasize the international political significance of this group of countries. It is evident that the Global South concept has gained popularity in the international arena for certain objective reasons, but the great power game is an important subjective reason hidden behind it. In recent years, the concept of the Global South has been given strategic overtones by some developed countries. They try to manipulate the Global South concept to break up the cohesion of the Global South, and to enhance their control by creating exclusivity within developing countries, as when the Munich Security Conference in 2023 set the theme of the first round of talks as “Recalibrating the Compass: North-South Cooperation.” European Council President Charles Michel, who was at the conference, even pledged the European Union’s support for the African Union’s accession to the Group of 20 (G20). The 2022 Group of Seven (G7) Summit invited developing countries such as India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Argentina. Then, the 2023 G7 Summit also invited developing countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Both G7 summits rolled out a number of policies to entice countries of the Global South.

虽然“全球南方”并不是一个有着明确成员国家、确定战略目标和完善体制机构的国家集团或国际机制,但拥有类似的国际政治诉求且愈发成为全球事务中不可忽略的重要力量。这也是主要发达国家尤其是美国开始忌惮并重视这一国家群体的国际政治意义之原因。可见,“全球南方”概念在国际舞台上博得热度具有一定的客观原因,但大国博弈则是隐藏在背后的重要主观原因。近年来,“全球南方”概念不断被部分发达国家赋予战略色彩。它们妄图操纵“全球南方”概念,通过在发展中国家内部制造排他性,进而分化“全球南方”的凝聚力且增强其掌控力,如2023年度的慕尼黑安全会议将首轮会谈主题设定为“重新校准指南针:南北合作”。与会的欧洲理事会主席米歇尔更是就欧盟支持非洲联盟加入二十国集团做出承诺。2022年度的七国集团峰会邀请了印度、南非、印度尼西亚、阿根廷等发展中国家参加;继而,2023年度的七国集团峰会也邀请巴西、印度、印度尼西亚、越南等发展中国家参加。两次七国集团峰会都抛出了多项政策对“全球南方”国家进行诱拉。

The great power game and the Global South

大国博弈与“全球南方”

Playing the Global South card and concocting a narrative with strong humanitarian overtones is an important part of the current international strategy of developed countries represented by the United States. After all, the countries of the Global South account for 70% of the world’s population, and the international community has already seen their collective influence in relevant international affairs. If they are not aligned with the United States and the West on major international political and economic issues, they can bring significant international influence and even constrain the realization of U.S and Western strategic intentions. This ultimately forces the United States and the West to attach great importance to them, and ultimately make the preposterous move of competing for the right to define the Global South. Looking at the behavior of the United States and the West, it can be roughly divided into the following types.

打“全球南方”牌,炮制带有浓厚人道主义色彩的叙事,系以美国为代表的发达国家当下国际战略中的重要一环。毕竟,“全球南方”国家的人口占到世界总人口的七成,且国际社会已然看到它们在相关国际事务中的群体影响力。若它们在重大国际政治经济问题上没有与美西方保持一致,能够带来重大的国际影响力甚至掣肘美西方战略意图的实现。这最终迫使美西方不得不对其予以高度重视,最后做出争夺“全球南方”定义权的荒唐举措。统观美西方的行为,大致可分为以下几类。

The first is increasing its political control over the countries of the Global South and demanding that the Global South be in step with it on major international affairs. As the countries of the Global South have begun to play an important role in international affairs as a unique political force, they have on many occasions demonstrated behavioral choices that are inconsistent with those of the hegemonic power, the United States. For example, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, at the special session on Ukraine convened by the UN, not only did some developed countries represented by the United States fail to obtain general support from Global South countries, some 52 developing countries expressly indicated that they did not support imposing sanctions on Russia, and in February 2023, of the more than 130 countries that announced they would not join in financial sanctions against Russia, most were developing countries. In response to the “silent majority” phenomenon, the United States and the West have begun launching one tactic after another to lure countries of the Global South. On August 5-6, 2023, the peace conference on Ukraine held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, failed to invite Russia, a party involved in the issue, but in addition to the United States and Europe, the conference also invited a number of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The United States and the West hope to strengthen their political control over the Global South countries on the Ukrainian issue and to induce them to take the same position as them.

第一,增强对“全球南方”国家的政治掌控力,要求“全球南方”在国际重大事务上与其保持一致。随着“全球南方”国家作为一支独特的政治力量在国际事务中开始发挥重要作用,更是在很多场合表现出与霸权国美国不一致的行为选择。例如,乌克兰危机爆发后,在联合国召开的乌克兰问题特别会议上,以美国为代表的部分发达国家不仅未获得来自“全球南方”国家的普遍支持,更有52个发展中国家明确表示不支持对俄罗斯实施制裁;在2023年2月,130多个宣布不参与对俄罗斯金融制裁的国家大多为发展中国家。针对“沉默的大多数”现象,美西方开始连连出招,诱拉“全球南方”国家。2023年8月5~6日,在沙特吉达举行的乌克兰问题和平会议并未邀请作为涉事方的俄罗斯,但在美国以及欧洲之外,会议还邀请了亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的部分发展中国家。美西方希望借此强化对“全球南方”国家在乌克兰问题上的政治掌控力,诱导它们与其站在同一立场。

The second is safeguarding their own non-neutral interests and reducing the impact of the Global South on the established system of governance that favors themselves. The countries of the Global South are seeking to democratize and reform the system of global governance through internal dialogue and cooperation. Some developed countries, represented by the United States, have been forced to take a fresh look at this group of countries in the hopes of co-opting and controlling them, and thereby mitigating the impact of reforms on their own interests. The countries of the Global South have demanded that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank correct the biases and injustices in the established international financial architecture, and have called for effective reforms of the global financial governance system. Among other things, they have proposed increasing developing country representation as a proportion of executive boards, quota reform, and tilting the use of funds in favor of developing countries. At present, resistance to these reforms is considerable. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said “During the pandemic control period, the G7, which is seen as representing developed countries, received a total of U.S.$280 billion from the IMF, whereas Least Developed Countries received a total of only about U.S.$8 billion. The total population of the G7 is about 770 million, while the combined population of the aforementioned Least Developed Countries is about 1.1 billion.”

第二,维护自身非中性的利益,减少“全球南方”对既成的于己有利的治理体系形成冲击。“全球南方”国家通过内部对话与合作,寻求对全球治理体系进行民主化改革。以美国为代表的部分发达国家不得不重新审视这一国家群体,欲通过拉拢和控制它们,进而达到缓解改革对自身利益带来的冲击。“全球南方”国家要求国际货币基金组织和世界银行纠正既成国际金融架构中的偏见和不公,呼吁对全球金融治理体系进行有效改革,如提出增加发展中国家在执董会的代表比重、进行份额改革、向发展中国家倾斜资金用途等内容。当下,这些改革的阻力相当大。正如联合国秘书长古特雷斯所言:“疫情防控期间,被视为发达国家代表的七国集团从国际货币基金组织获得总计相当于2 800亿美元的资金,而一些最不发达国家获得的资助总计只有约80亿美元。七国集团总人口约7.7亿,而上述最不发达国家人口合计约11亿。”

The third is disintegrating the solidarity and cooperation of Global South countries through categorization, cooptation, and pressure. The developed countries, represented by the United States, have deliberately created an exclusive categorization of countries within the Global South in an attempt to exclude China. In addition, they have attempted to polarize the Global South, and by fashioning contradictions, to achieve the goal of making them constrain each other. The most prominent example is the United States’ bilateral pressure aimed at polarizing the BRICS countries. The BRICS cooperation mechanism is an important platform for the Global South to participate in global governance, and it has made important contributions to the democratization and reform of the global governance system. The United States is trying to undermine the internal cohesion of the BRICS countries and polarize the BRICS cooperation mechanism by drawing in or exerting pressure on the so-called “swing countries” singled out by the United States—Brazil, India, and South Africa. In short, if the Global South lacks a unified position on global governance-related agendas such as trade governance and development governance, it will be more difficult for it to form a united front in international negotiations with developed countries and jointly respond to their non-neutral setting of agendas and governance rules. Only by actively shaping and maintaining its own global governance platform will the Global South be able to unite the group’s countries into one force, speak with one voice, and fight for greater rights.

第三,借助分类、拉拢和施压等手段,分化瓦解“全球南方”国家的团结与合作。以美国为代表的发达国家在“全球南方”内部刻意制造排他性的国家分类法,妄图把中国排除在外。此外,它们还妄图在“全球南方”内部制造分歧,通过塑造矛盾达到使之互相钳制的目标。最为突出的例子是,美国通过双边施压手段以期分化金砖国家。金砖国家合作机制是“全球南方”参与全球治理的重要平台,为推进全球治理体系的民主化改革做出了重要贡献。美国试图通过拉拢或施压巴西、印度和南非等其圈定的所谓“摇摆国家”,破坏金砖国家的内部凝聚力,分化金砖国家合作机制。总之,在贸易治理和发展治理等全球治理相关议程中,一旦“全球南方”缺乏统一立场,就更加难以在同发达国家的国际谈判中形成合力,共同应对发达国家对议事日程和治理规则的非中性设定。“全球南方”只有积极塑造并维护属于自身的全球治理平台,才能够将该群体国家“拧成一股绳”,发出同样的声音,争取更大的权益。

The fourth is manufacturing the so-called “theory of China’s responsibility for the debt crisis” to create divisions in China’s relationships with other developing countries. It is worth noting that some developed countries, represented by the United States, actively advocate and manipulate the Global South concept on one hand, while intentionally excluding China from the Global South on the other, in a vain attempt to sever China’s natural ties with many of the developing countries and weaken China’s influence among developing countries as a group. In order to achieve that goal, some developed countries, represented by the United States, have spared no effort to manufacture the so-called “debt trap” narrative. In debt governance issues, they only emphasize bilateral debt, making no mention of the highly relevant debt held by multilateral financial institutions and Western commercial creditors, and they have deliberately fabricated the so-called “theory of China’s responsibility for the debt crisis.” In fact, however, this is a case of the robbers shouting “Stop thief.” According to World Bank data, the total debt of 49 African countries amounts to $696 billion, of which nearly three quarters is debt held by multilateral financial institutions and Western commercial creditors. Due to the manipulation of certain developed countries, however, these categories of debt vanish from discussions of debt governance in the arena of international public opinion. The objective data above show that the “theory of China’s responsibility for the debt crisis” concocted by certain developed countries is groundless and absurd.

第四,制造所谓的“债务危机中国责任论”,分化中国与其他广大发展中国家的关系。值得注意的是,以美国为代表的部分发达国家一边积极热捧与操控“全球南方”概念,一边有意将中国排除在“全球南方”之外,妄想分化中国与广大发展中国家的天然联系,削弱中国在发展中国家群体中的影响力。为达到上述目标,以美国为代表的部分发达国家不遗余力地制造出所谓的“债务陷阱”叙事,在债务治理议题中只强调双边债务,绝口不提与之高度相关的多边金融机构和西方商业债权人所持债务,刻意捏造所谓的“债务危机中国责任论”,而事实却是一场“贼喊捉贼”的文字游戏。世界银行的数据显示,49个非洲国家负债总额合计6 960亿美元,而其中有近3/4的债务来自多边金融机构与西方商业债权人所持债务。然而,这些债务类别却由于某些发达国家的操控凭空消失在讨论债务治理的国际舆论场。以上客观数据显示,某些发达国家炮制的“债务危机中国责任论”是毫无依据且荒谬的。

The fifth is portraying India as the leader of the Global South in order to exclude and counterbalance China. Some developed countries, represented by the United States, not only continue to exploit the differences between China and India on geopolitical issues to create division between the two countries, but have also recently created the narrative of the so-called “leader of the global South” to do so. In one sense, the portrayal of India as the leader of the Global South is a supporting measure for the United States to launch its “Indo-Pacific strategy” to contain China. Its main aims are to divide the political and economic positions of China and India, control the situation in the region, and control developing countries. India has long desired to elevate itself from a regional power to a world power, and striving to become the leader of the Global South seems to provide it with an argument for enhancing its international influence. Early this year, India hosted an online summit of “Voices of the Global South,” declaring that the era of the Global South was dawning and that India should “strive for a common future” on behalf of the countries of the global South. It is evident that the United States and the West have taken advantage of India’s ambition to become a world power in order to shape the “leader of the Global South” narrative, which helps them use India as a fulcrum for expanding their influence in the region among developing countries.

第五,为达排斥和制衡中国目标,把印度塑造为“全球南方”的领导者。以美国为代表的部分发达国家不仅继续利用中、印两国在地缘政治问题上的分歧来分化两国,更是在近期制造出所谓“全球南方领导国”叙事来分化两国。在某种意义上,将印度塑造为“全球南方”的领导者,是美国发起遏制中国“印太战略”的辅助手段,主要目的在于分化中、印两国的政治和经济立场、控制该区域局势和掌控发展中国家。印度长期具有将自身从区域强国提升为世界强国的夙愿,而争当“全球南方”领导国似乎为其提供了一个增强国际影响力的说辞。印度年初在线上举办了“全球南方国家之声”峰会,宣称“全球南方”时代正在到来,而印度则应代表全球南方国家“争取共同未来”。可见,美西方塑造“全球南方领导国”的叙事,利用了印度想成为世界大国的雄心,有助于它们以印度为翘板扩张自身在该区域和发展中国家群体内的影响力。

China’s response from the global governance perspective

全球治理视阈下的中国应对

The rise of the Global South concept has strong great power game overtones, and to a certain extent the concept has been manipulated by Western developed countries, which may divide the developing country camp and bring about certain contradictions and antagonisms. Nevertheless, it also provides an opportunity for deepening cooperation in global development governance, and China’s role in this is indispensable.

虽然“全球南方”概念的兴起有浓厚的大国博弈色彩,一定程度上受到西方发达国家的操纵,可能会分化发展中国家阵营,带来一定的矛盾和对立,但它也为深化全球发展治理合作提供了机遇,而中国在其中的作用不可或缺。

First, there is an urgent need to set the record straight within the countries of the Global South, so that they fully recognize the strategic intention of some developed countries to sever China’s natural ties with the Global South. China is an important component of the Global South, as well as an indispensable contributor to its growing international influence. For example, according to World Bank data, China’s average contribution to global economic growth was 38.6 percent between 2013 and 2021, exceeding the G7’s 25.7 percent. As China has continued to grow in overall strength and actively participate in international affairs, the overall power of the Global South has risen, and its influence in international affairs has been greatly enhanced. China has been highly consistent with other Global South countries in demanding a more just and rational world order, and it has always supported the reasonable demands and basic interests of developing countries. In other words, if the close relationship between the two was ever severed, the influence of the countries of the South in international affairs would be bound to decline. Therefore, as Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CCP Central Committee, has said, “The countries of the Global South need to be united and work together.” In this regard, at the closing ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg on August 22, 2023, President Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out that, as a developing country and a member of the Global South, China has always shared a common fate with other developing countries, firmly safeguarded the common interests of developing countries, and pushed for increasing the representation and voice of emerging market countries and developing countries in global affairs.

第一,亟待在“全球南方”国家内部澄清事实,使各国充分认识到部分发达国家分化中国与“全球南方”天然联系的战略意图。中国是“全球南方”的重要组成部分,也是“全球南方”国际影响力增强不可或缺的助推者。例如,根据世界银行的数据,2013年至2021年,中国对世界经济增长的平均贡献率为38.6%,超过七国集团的25.7%。随着中国整体实力的持续增长和积极参与国际事务,“全球南方”整体力量上升,在国际事务中的影响力也得以大大提升。中国与其他“全球南方”国家要求推动构建更加公正合理世界秩序的诉求高度一致,一贯支持发展中国家的合理要求和基本利益。换句话说,一旦两者的紧密关系被割裂,南方国家在国际事务中的影响力势必下降。因此,正如中央外办主任王毅所言:“全球南方”国家“要团结一致,共商合作”。对于这一点,习近平主席在2023年8月22日约翰内斯堡金砖国家工商论坛闭幕式上深刻指出,作为发展中国家、“全球南方”的一员,中国始终同其他发展中国家同呼吸、共命运,坚定维护发展中国家共同利益,推动增加新兴市场国家和发展中国家在全球事务中的代表性和发言权。

Second, the depoliticization of the Global South concept should be promoted, emphasizing that the joint pursuit of development should be the core agenda of the Global South’s participation in global governance. We must insist on placing development at the center of the international agenda, as only then can we avoid the concept of the Global South being politicized and instrumentalized by some developed countries in ways that detract from the original intent of the community of developing countries. Placing development at the center of the international agenda will also help press developed countries to fulfill their aid commitments, rather than simply hype the concept in order to evade their international responsibilities. Returning to development issues of concern to developing countries will also help build international consensus among developing countries, effectively safeguard and enhance their international voice, and mobilize sufficient public goods for global development. As an important representative of the Global South, China has always insisted on safeguarding the legitimate development rights of developing countries. On one hand, within the framework of global development initiatives, China has provided a large number of public goods for global development governance; on the other hand, China has accumulated a great deal of successful experience in domestic development governance, and is willing to share its experience in governance with other developing countries.

第二,推动“全球南方”概念的去政治化,强调“全球南方”参与全球治理的核心议程应该是共同谋求发展的问题。只有坚持把发展置于国际议程的中心位置,才能避免“全球南方”概念被部分发达国家政治化和工具化,偏离发展中国家群体的本意。把发展置于国际议程中心位置,也有助于敦促发达国家切实履行援助承诺,而不是简单地依靠炒作概念来逃避国际责任。回归发展中国家关注的发展议题,还将有助于凝聚发展中国家内部的国际共识,切实维护并提高发展中国家的国际话语权,筹集足够的全球发展公共产品。中国作为“全球南方”的重要代表,一贯坚持维护发展中国家的正当发展权利。一方面,在全球发展倡议的框架下,中国为全球发展治理提供了大量公共产品;另一方面,中国在国内发展治理中积累了大量成功经验,愿与其他发展中国家分享治国理政经验。

Third, we should downplay the issue of leadership and advocate that major countries establish the correct concept of “stakeholders in global development governance.” Firstly, we should objectively analyze the willingness and ability of major countries to participate in global development governance and even serve as leaders of the Global South. Leadership is based on the provision of global public goods, and India and the United States and the West behind it do not have the ability or willingness to provide the Global South sufficient public goods. For example, the G7 has made commitments to provide appropriate public goods, including aid funds and relief funds, to support the development of Global South countries and to cope with climate change. Up to now, not only have they failed to make good on their commitments, but they have also repeatedly pressured developing countries to repay their existing debts. Secondly, the “leader of the global South” narrative should be replaced with the concept of “stakeholders in global development governance,” emphasizing the responsibilities of major countries in matters of global development governance. As major countries in the developing world, China and India are both important stakeholders in global development governance, and both sides should abandon external interference and wedge-driving. They should promote useful dialogue and cooperation on development governance issues of common concern to the Global South, and work effectively for the benefit of the developing country community.

第三,淡化领导权问题,倡导主要国家树立“全球发展治理利益攸关方”的正确理念。首先,客观剖析主要国家参与全球发展治理乃至作为“全球南方”领导国的意愿和能力。领导权是以提供全球公共产品为基础的,印度及其背后的美西方并不具备向“全球南方”提供充足公共产品的能力和意愿。例如,七国集团曾就支持“全球南方”国家的发展和应对气候变化做出提供相应公共产品的承诺,包括援助资金和救助资金。迄今,它们不仅没有兑现承诺,还一再向发展中国家施压要求其偿还此前所欠的债务。其次,以“全球发展治理利益攸关方”的概念替代“全球南方领导权”叙事,强调主要国家在全球发展治理事务中的责任担当。作为发展中国家里的大国,中国和印度都是全球发展治理的重要利益攸关方,双方应摒弃外部干扰或离间,就“全球南方”普遍关心的发展治理议题增进有益的对话与合作,切实为发展中国家群体谋福利。

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任琳 (Ren Lin). "The Global South in the Great Power Game and Global Governance [大国博弈与全球治理中的“全球南方”]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in West Asia and Africa [西亚非洲], November 22, 2023

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