2021年国际安全形势:不稳定因素增加 不确定风险上升
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The International Security Situation in 2021: Unstable Factors Increase, Uncertain Risks Rise

2021年国际安全形势:不稳定因素增加 不确定风险上升

The deputy dean at the PLA’s National Defense University overviews China’s regional and global security challenges in 2021, emphasizing the increasingly important role science and technology innovation play in the military domain.


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The pace of world change picked up in 2021. The international security situation was stable overall, but there was a continuous increase in internal tensions. Moreover, the coronavirus pandemic continued to spread. The international security order was tested and subjected to shocks. Unstable factors in international security increased, and there was a rise in uncertain risks. The United States strengthened its maintenance and defense of its hegemony. While striving to uphold its original alliance system, it began to build a new security architecture, thus causing a further intensification of great power competition and a further tightening of the space available for international security cooperation. Geopolitical games triggered tension and conflict in some regions, with the potential for more serious runaway crises, while incubating possible new divisions and combinations. International security governance suffers from many defects. The original order is showing signs of loosening and dysfunction, but it is difficult to establish new norms. Overall, there has been no change in the continually evolving trend of international relations. Globally, the need to advance cooperation and strengthen coordination has correspondingly increased.

2021年,世界变局加速演进,国际安全形势总体稳定,但内部张力持续增加,加之新冠肺炎疫情继续蔓延,国际安全秩序受到考验和冲击,国际安全中不稳定因素增加、不确定风险上升。美国强化对霸权的护持,在努力维系原有同盟体系的同时,开始搭建新的安全架构,导致大国竞争继续升温,也使国际安全合作空间进一步收紧。地缘博弈在一些地区引发紧张和冲突,潜藏着较大的失控危险,也孕育着新的分化组合。国际安全治理存在诸多缺失,原有的秩序出现松动和失效,新的规范又难以确立。总的来说,国际关系不断进化的趋势没有改变,全球范围内对推进合作、强化协调的需求相应增加。

The Political Attributes of War Have Become Even More Prominent

战争的政治属性进一步凸显

Military force is no longer the sole guarantee of security, and total war is no longer the basic form of war. A militarily powerful country, like the United States, may find it easy to achieve victory on the battlefield. Even so, it will find gaining political and economic benefits from such a victory extremely difficult. In July 2021, the United States announced that U.S. military forces would not perform important missions in Iraq and planned to pull out of Iraq by the end of the year. However, so far, it has merely completed a “role conversion” of so-called combat personnel to instructors and advisers. In August 2021, U.S forces hastily withdrew from Afghanistan, and the Taliban quickly took power. The development of the situation in the Middle East and Afghanistan demonstrates the limits to the use of military force in global politics. Even if a country has absolutely superiority in technology and equipment and is capable of annihilating the opponent’s personnel on the battlefield and occupying their territory, it will fail to win a substantive victory on account of having confused war aims.

军事力量不再是维护安全的唯一保障,全面战争更不再是战争的基本形态。即便军事实力强如美国,在军事上或许很容易取胜,但想要凭此获得政治和经济利益难上加难。2021年7月,美国宣布美军将不在伊拉克执行重要任务,并计划于年底前撤出伊拉克,但目前为止只是完成了所谓战斗人员向教员和顾问的“角色转变”。2021年8月,美军仓促撤出阿富汗,阿富汗塔利班迅速接管政权。中东和阿富汗事态的发展表明,在全球政治中运用军事力量具有局限性,即使在技术和装备上占据绝对优势,在战场上可以消灭对手的人员、占领对手的国土,由于战争目标含混,也无法取得实质性胜利。

Given the current international configuration, the absolute laws of war do not completely apply to global political development. Neither a politician nor a military strategist can afford to make strategic decisions that focus only on battlefield outcomes. The more critical issue is the use of military force to achieve political objectives. Particularly in local hybrid wars, one cannot be sure of achieving one’s objectives by annihilating the enemy. The realization of major strategic goals needs to be based on military outcomes, but also should transcend military outcomes. Only then can one integrate military means with other means, namely the political, the diplomatic, and the economic, and thereby seize the strategic initiative.

在当前国际格局下,战争的绝对规律并不完全适用于全球政治的发展,不论是政治家还是军事家,其战略决策不能仅仅关注战场胜负,更关键的是运用军事力量实现政治目的。尤其在局部的混合战争中,消灭了敌人也不一定能够达成目的。大战略目标的实现,既要基于军事胜负,又要超越军事胜负,如此才能把军事手段与政治、外交、经济等其他手段有效地结合起来,取得战略主动。

Even if one is facing a relatively weak opponent armed with inferior weapons, one cannot solve all problems just by relying on a very well-equipped and well-trained army. A final victory is very hard to achieve in the absence of an accurate understanding of the historical evolution of a country or region’s politics and culture. Failure to understand the impact and constraints on the use of military force brought about by developments in the global political landscape may result in ultimately fruitless ventures, no matter how powerful one’s own country is. In 2001, the United States launched a war with the nominal justification of opposing terrorism. However, it takes more than military strength to strike a blow against terrorism. Dedication to extirpating the root causes of terrorism is even more important. The soil which nourishes terrorism and extremism is, more often than not, failures of state and social governance or defects in global governance. There can be no question that the fundamental eradication of terrorism requires long-term, comprehensive policy implementation and broader international cooperation. When we also consider the geopolitical strategic ambitions that lay behind the U.S. anti-terrorism war and the wastage of national power that it entailed, we find “strategic failure” and “political failure” behind the success of the military operations.

即使针对装备劣质武器、实力较弱的对手,仅凭装备精良、训练有素的军队也不能解决所有问题。如果不能准确了解一个国家或地区的政治、文化的历史演进,就很难取得最后的胜利;如果不能理解全球政治格局的发展变化对军事力量运用带来的影响和束缚,无论自身实力如何强大,最后很可能无功而返。2001年,美国发动阿富汗战争,出师之名是反恐。但打击恐怖主义不仅要依靠军事实力,更要致力于铲除恐怖主义产生的根源。恐怖主义和极端思想滋生的土壤更多是国家和社会治理失败,或者是全球治理的缺失。要从根本上消除恐怖主义,无疑需要长期的综合施策和更广泛的国际合作。更何况美国反恐战争背后承载了更多地缘战略企图,过多消耗了国力,其军事行动成功的背后却是“战略失败”和“政治失败”。

U.S. Military Deployments Heighten Great Power Strategic Competition

美国军事布局推高大国战略竞争态势

The United States gave prominence to great power strategic competition during the Trump administration. There has been no reversal of this trend since Biden assumed office. Rather, it has expanded in scope and encompassed a wider range of sectors, with impacts that are even more profound and far-reaching. In the military sphere, the United States has further reinforced its frontline presence in the Indo-Pacific and Eastern European regions so as to ensure that it has sufficient deterrents to meet any challenge. It has strengthened its military relationship with allies and partners and has built a more powerful defensive network. For a while now, the United States has greatly increased the frequency of activities such as military exercises, espionage and reconnaissance, and bomber flights along Russia’s borders and in China’s periphery. The U.S. nuclear submarine collision that occurred in the South China Sea suggests that the frequency of such operations by U.S. military forces has already exceeded what is normal for geo-military activities. U.S. strategic planning and military deployments bring with them signs of increasing danger. They exacerbate tense situations in the relevant regions.

美国在特朗普执政时期突出大国战略竞争,这种趋势在拜登上台后并未出现反转,反而拓展至更大范围和更广领域,影响也更为深远。军事上,美国进一步强化在印太地区和东欧地区的前沿存在,确保其威慑力足以应对任何挑战;加强与盟友和伙伴的军事关系,构建更为强大的防务网络。一个时期以来,美国在俄罗斯边境一带及中国周边地区的军事演习、间谍侦察、轰炸机飞行等活动的频次均出现大幅增加。美国核潜艇在南海发生撞击事件,也从侧面说明美军有关行动的频率已经超出正常的地缘军事活动范围。美国战略规划和军力部署带来危险升级的征兆,加剧了相关地区的紧张局势。

In reality, the United States is the only country in the world that lacks a credible, comprehensive security threat. All those that it has deemed to be opponents are surrounded by its military bases and within range of its nuclear missiles. The United States has numerous military bases worldwide, and they constitute direct pressures and threats on some countries, including Russia and China. The intensification of such pressures and threats necessarily escalates great power competition. For example, the United States has increased the frequency of its military exercises in the Baltic and Black Seas and has been conducting exercises with aircraft armed with strategic weapons. The United States held “Global Thunder” strategic nuclear force exercises, in which its strategic bombers were, at their closest, only 20 kilometers from the Russian border. The U.S. Pentagon published an assessment report in November 2021 that revealed that the United States would strengthen its force deployments against China and Russia and improve infrastructure and that it planned to upgrade military bases in Guam and Australia.

从现实看,美国是世界上唯一在安全领域没有全面可信威胁的国家,美国所认定的对手都处于其军事基地的包围以及核导弹射程范围内。美国在全球拥有众多军事基地,并对包括俄罗斯和中国在内的一些国家构成了直接压力和威胁,这种压力和威胁的强化必然激化大国竞争。如美国在波罗的海和黑海等地区增加军事演习频次,并进行了配有战略武器的飞行演习;美国举行的“环球雷霆”战略核力量演习,其战略轰炸机距离俄罗斯边境最近时仅有20公里。美国五角大楼2021年11月发布的一份评估报告显示,美军将加强针对中国和俄罗斯的军力部署,改善基础设施,并计划升级位于关岛和澳大利亚的军事基地。

In July 2021, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin gave a rather complete explanation of the U.S. “integrated deterrence strategy.” He emphasized the combining of U.S. strengths with those of its allies and appropriately intertwining technology, combat concepts, and various capabilities into a network so as to form a reliable, flexible, and powerful deterrence capability. The “integrated deterrence strategy” will have an important pull effect on the future U.S. military defense posture. Austin also emphasized that it is no longer possible to rely solely on military force to defend against an opponent’s attack, but rather one should force the opponent to retreat in the face of the difficulties presented by “integrated deterrence.” The United States will likely make some major adjustments in accordance with this strategic design to its alliance system and even to its overall security architecture and thus intensify efforts to strategically squeeze and divide its opponents. Since 2021, the United States has been accelerating the implementation of its “Indo-Pacific strategy,” upgrading the “Quad mechanism” that includes the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, and trying to construct a “tripartite alliance” of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. All of these moves reflect the importance that the Biden administration attaches to coordination with its allies and partners. It is actively reshaping the United States-led alliance system.

2021年7月,美国国防部长奥斯汀比较完整地阐述了美军的“一体化威慑战略”,强调将美国和盟友的优势结合起来,并将技术、作战概念和各种能力以合适的方式组合交织在网络中,以形成可靠、灵活和强大的威慑能力。“一体化威慑战略”将对未来美军的防务态势产生重要的牵引作用。奥斯汀还强调,不能再仅仅依靠军事实力来防止对手发动攻击,而是要通过“一体化威慑”迫使对手知难而退。按照这个战略设计,美国还会对同盟体系乃至整个安全构架作出一些重大调整,强化针对对手的战略挤压和分化。2021年以来,美国一直在加快实施“印太战略”,升级美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚“四国机制”,尝试构建美国、英国、澳大利亚“三方同盟”,这些举动都反映出拜登政府重视与盟友伙伴国家的协调,积极重塑美国主导的同盟体系。

At the same time, NATO is adjusting its deployments against Russia and is further emphasizing non-conventional war content. It is carrying out strategic adjustments that include nuclear strikes, cyberwarfare, and space war. These moves are highly likely to set off a new arms race. In the event of such a situation, the already tense state of affairs between NATO and Russia may gradually escalate. Russia’s Southern Military District has already announced that it is re-equipping units under its command and that over 70% of the weapons systems and specialized equipment have been improved. Russia strengthened its southwestern air defense capabilities in order to counterbalance pressure from NATO. In recent years, the main European nations have been updating or developing new national security strategies, which will give rise to a new round of strategic interactions. Russia is now beefing up deployment of long-range anti-ship missiles. The first batch of extended-range missiles will be delivered to the coastal defense brigades of the Northern Fleet and the Black Sea Fleet. In 2021, Russia brought out a new “national security strategy,” which contained all of the relevant factors and clearly defined strategic priorities. It especially emphasized that “the goal of information security is to strengthen the Russian Federation’s sovereignty in information space.” In planning for “strategic stability and mutually beneficial international cooperation,” Russia will lay even greater stress on the “multi-dimensional, multi-layered, multi-objective” line so as to uphold a beneficial equilibrium in foreign relations.

同时,北约也在调整针对俄罗斯的战略部署,进一步强调非常规战争内容,进行包括核打击、网络战甚至太空战在内的战略调整,这极有可能激发新一轮军备竞赛。一旦出现这种局面,北约和俄罗斯之间原有的紧张局势很有可能渐次升级。俄罗斯南部军区已经宣布对所属部队进行换装,目前经过改进的武器系统和专门装备占比已经超过70%。俄罗斯加强其西南部防空能力意在制衡来自北约的压力。近年来,欧洲主要国家都在更新或酝酿新的国家安全战略,彼此之间将产生新一轮战略互动。俄罗斯正加强部署远程反舰导弹,第一批增程型导弹将交付北方舰队和黑海舰队的岸防旅。2021年,俄罗斯出台新版“国家安全战略”,相关要素完备、战略优先事项明确,突出强调“信息安全的目的是加强俄罗斯联邦在信息空间的主权”。在有关“战略稳定和国际互利合作”的规划中,俄罗斯将更加注重“多维度、多层次、多目标”的路线,以维护对外关系的有利平衡。

Strategic Concerns Cause Some Countries to Keep Expanding Arms Investments

战略忧虑导致部分国家持续加大军备投入

As the changes occurring in the world grow more profound, each nation’s position, role, and influence within the international system is undergoing corresponding changes. The old logic of hegemonism, power politics, and capital expansion will not automatically exit the stage of history. At the same time, the relevant standpoints and efforts for building a new order have yet to be fully presented and affirmed. In the transition from old to new orders, the co-existence of multiple rules has highlighted the complexity of international relations as never before, and uncertainties in international security have become even more prominent. Thus, the strategic concerns of some countries not only have not decreased, but have in fact increased. An obvious sense of insecurity has arisen in the changing world. Against the background of a world economy that is universally depressed owing to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, some countries and regions are still increasing their investments in armaments. The total amount of global military expenditures in 2020 was 1.981 trillion U.S. dollars, the highest level since the end of the Cold War. While global economic growth declined more than 4%, global military spending grew 2.6% in the same period. According to incomplete statistics, global military spending in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.94 trillion U.S. dollars. Although this represents a slight decline relative to 2020, the level of spending remains high. In response to this, over 50 Nobel Laureates issued a public letter in which they stated that “some governments increase military spending under competitive pressure, leading to an intensification of the global arms race and constituting a colossal waste.”

随着世界变局深入发展,各国在国际体系中的地位、作用和影响都在发生相应改变。霸权主义、强权政治、资本扩张等旧有逻辑不会自动退出历史舞台,与此同时,构建新秩序的有关主张和努力还未得到充分展现和确认。新旧秩序交错、多种规则并存使得国际关系的复杂性空前凸显,国际安全中的不确定性更加突出。如此一来,一些国家的战略忧虑不仅没有减少,反而趋于增加,在变化的世界中出现了明显的不安全感。在当前世界经济受新冠肺炎疫情冲击而普遍低迷的背景下,一些国家和地区仍在持续加大军备投入。2020年全球军费开支总额为1.981万亿美元,达到了冷战结束以来的最高水平,在全球经济增长下降超过4%的情况下,全球军事开支同比增长了2.6%。据不完全统计,2021年全球军费预计支出超过1.94万亿美元,相比2020年虽可能略有下降,但仍然保持着高水平。50多位“诺贝尔奖”得主为此发表公开信,认为“一些政府在压力下竞相增加军费开支,导致全球军备竞赛加剧,构成一种巨大的浪费”。

Recent years have seen a rapid development of high technology in military fields. There have been continuous breakthroughs of disruptive technology in new fields. The building of new combat forces has become an important pull factor in the rapid growth of military fields. At present, the important new fields that are closely tied to national security include: space, deep sea, cyber, biology, and AI. Human “feelers” have gradually extended to virtual frontiers, deep frontiers, remote frontiers, and micro-frontiers and thus have brought about changes in national security structures and in the development and innovation of national security thinking. In international competition, new fields may often transcend traditional fields and have unique advantages. Pioneers can gain a leg up and seize the strategic initiative. Therefore, all the major powers have, one after another, expanded their investments in the relevant fields.

近年来,军事领域高新技术发展迅速,新型领域颠覆性技术不断取得突破,新型作战力量建设成为军事领域快速增长的重要牵引。就目前看,与国家安全紧密相关的新型领域主要有太空、深海、网络、生物、人工智能等,人类的触角逐渐延伸到虚拟边疆、深边疆、远边疆和微边疆,由此带来国家安全结构的变化,也带来国家安全思想的发展和创新。在国际竞争中,新型领域往往会超越传统领域,具有独特的优势,先入者能够把握先机,赢得战略主动,因此主要国家都相继加大了在相关领域的投入。

In 2021, the process of S&T innovation relating to disruptive technologies accelerated. Important progress was made in the AI, space, and near space fields in particular. There was an acceleration in the application of relevant technologies to specific military equipment, with critical technologies developing at an unimaginably fast rate. Russia and the United States have been developing these fields at impressive rates. In July 2021, Russia conducted its first large-scale military exercise for the purpose of defending against and intercepting hypersonic missiles. It did so in order to test and evaluate the state of guided dispatching and equipment training in the Russian military forces. As for equipment development, the Russian hypersonic missile, called Kinzhal, already possesses preliminary combat capability. After it is launched, it travels at high speeds and, swooping down from the sky at 10 times the speed of sound, precisely strikes its target. The Zircon anti-ship missile is also undergoing further testing and, according to plans, should be deployable to combat units in 2022. In a space test conducted in November 2021, Russia elicited the concern of many countries when it hit and destroyed one of its own decommissioned orbiting satellites. As soon as he assumed office, U.S. President Biden announced the institution of an aggressive space program, demanding that the U.S. Space Force simultaneously possess combat and combat support capabilities to implement rapid, sustained attack and defense space operations and thus maintain the U.S. lead in space. To enable its own hypersonic weapons and hypersonic missiles to become mission-capable sooner, the U.S. military performed multiple targeted tests in 2021.

2021年,颠覆性技术的科技创新进程加快,尤其在人工智能、太空、临近空间等领域取得了重要进展,相关技术加快应用到特定的军事装备方面,关键技术的发展速度超出想象。在这些领域,俄罗斯、美国的发展速度尤其引人注目。2021年7月,俄罗斯首次进行了旨在防御、拦截高超音速导弹的大规模军事演习,以检验评估俄军指导调度、装备训练的情况;在装备发展上,俄军以“匕首”命名的高超音速导弹已经初步具备实战能力,其发射之后高速运行并可破空而下,以10倍音速精准打击目标;“锆石”反舰导弹也在作进一步测试,按照规划2022年就能部署到作战部队。2021年11月,俄罗斯在太空实验中击毁了一颗仍在轨运行但已废弃的本国卫星,引起许多国家的关切。美国总统拜登甫一上任,就宣布要制定一项激进的太空计划,要求美国太空军同时具备作战和作战支持能力,以实现迅捷而持续的太空攻防行动,维护美国的太空领导地位。为了使自己的高超音速武器、高超音速导弹可更早具备执行任务能力,美军在2021年内进行了多次针对性试验。

As S&T developments and breakthroughs occur in the new fields relating to space, deep sea, biology, and AI, the security space will continue to extend into these new fields and spaces. Military operations will expand from three dimensions to multiple dimensions and from the tangible to the intangible. Space supremacy, deep sea supremacy, biosupremacy, and dominance of the AI field will become the new critical factors in winning great power competitions and wars, and the development of new forces will spur revolutionary changes in military force systems. The new fields are spaces in which new combat capabilities can grow. They are also the main vehicles whereby traditional military forces can be brought into play. They will play a critical role in high-end wars. For example, cyber warfare capabilities have become fundamental factors in military systems; unmanned combat systems will significantly raise the intelligentization level of combat operations; and hypersonic weapons will become the trump card of strategic strikes. This is a development trend in which new branches of the armed services will continue to appear and become incorporated into the original military force system—the space force, the cyber force, and even service branches that may become more important than the traditional armed services as they grow from strategic support forces into important combat forces. UAV and robot forces will be quickly developed and utilized.

随着太空、深海、生物以及人工智能等诸多新型领域的科技发展和突破,安全空间将持续向这些新型领域和空间延伸,军事行动也由三维向多维、由有形向无形拓展,制太空权、制深海权、制生物权及人工智能领域的主导权将成为大国竞争和战争制胜新的关键要素,而新型力量的发展也将促使军事力量体系发生革命性变化。新型领域是新质战斗力的增长空间,也是传统军事力量发挥作用的主要载体,在高端战争中将发挥关键作用。如网络攻防能力已成为军事体系的基础性要素;无人作战系统将大大提升作战行动的智能化水平;高超音速武器将成为实施战略打击的“杀手锏”。作为一种发展趋势,新军种将继续出现,并融入原有的军事力量体系,天军、网军等力量甚至可能发展成为比传统军种更为重要的军种,由原来的战略支援力量成长为重要的作战力量;无人机部队、机器人部队等力量形式也将得到快速发展和运用。

Geopolitical Games Will Give Rise to New Divisions and Combinations

地缘博弈酝酿新的分化组合

The continuous increase in unstable international security factors and the interweaving of traditional security challenges with non-traditional security issues are manifesting themselves rather noticeably in changes in geopolitical relations. The EU wants to create a “European Army” as a way of advancing the integration of its defenses; nuclear submarine cooperation between the United States, the UK, and Australia constitutes a serious nuclear proliferation risk; and Russia and Ukraine are massing troops along their border amidst an accelerating deterioration of bilateral relations. In Southeast Asia, some external factors have become the main causes of volatility, while, in South Asia, the situation in Afghanistan is again changing rapidly because the United States and some European countries are actively strengthening relations with India. Thus, this region’s security is beset by new complexities. There are alternating and growing tensions and conflicts in some regions. Local turbulence still ebbs and flows across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Africa while new development trends appear.

国际安全不稳定因素持续增加,传统安全挑战与非传统安全问题复合交织,在地缘关系变动中比较突出地表现出来。欧盟推进防务一体化意欲打造“欧洲军”;美国、英国、澳大利亚核潜艇合作构成严重核扩散风险;俄罗斯、乌克兰陈兵边境,双边关系加速恶化。在东南亚,一些外部因素成为局势波动的主要原因;在南亚,由于美欧一些国家积极加强与印度的关系,阿富汗局势又迅速变化,该地区安全面临新的复杂形势;一些地区紧张和冲突交替升温,中东、东欧、中亚、非洲等地区的局部动荡仍此起彼伏,同时出现一些新的发展趋向。

Against a background of U.S. strategic retrenchment, new changes have arisen in the Middle East, with some moderation emerging in relations among the regions and nations there. A clash that occurred between Palestine and Israel in the Gaza strip resulted in an extremely tense situation between the two sides. In May 2021, Israel heavily bombarded the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian armed forces, mainly composed of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), fired rockets at Israeli targets. Both sides suffered major casualties and property losses. However, following the conflict, Israel and Palestine had more contacts and negotiations, which bore some fruit. Turning now to Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, we find that the aftershocks of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have yet to subside completely; friction remains between the two countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Internal disputes persist in some countries. Political disputes in Georgia and Ukraine have intensified. The geopolitical games of foreign great powers have cast a huge shadow on these regions. In Africa, terrorist activities have intensified and spread. Terrorist attacks are becoming severe, particularly in the Sahei region of Northern Africa. The nations of Sudan, Chad, Mali, Ethiopia, and Guinea-Bissau have all descended into disorder. While Mali and Guinea-Bissau have experienced military coups, anti-government forces are approaching the Ethiopian capital, which has entered a state of emergency.

在美国战略收缩的背景下,中东局势出现一些新变化,地区国家之间的关系有所缓和。巴以在加沙地带的冲突一度导致双方出现十分紧张的态势。2021年5月,以色列猛烈轰炸巴勒斯坦加沙地带,以伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)为主的巴勒斯坦武装力量则向以色列境内目标密集发射火箭弹,双方均有大量人员伤亡和财产损失。但冲突之后,以色列和巴勒斯坦多有接触和谈判,取得一定成果。在东欧和南高加索地区,纳卡冲突余波未平,阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚两国摩擦不断;一些国家内部纷争持续,格鲁吉亚、乌克兰等国政治纷争升级,域外大国的地缘政治博弈在该地区投下巨大阴影。在非洲,恐怖主义活动加剧、范围扩大,尤其在非洲北部的萨赫勒地区,恐怖袭击情况趋于严重。苏丹、乍得、马里、埃塞俄比亚、几内亚等国均陷入乱局,马里和几内亚发生军事政变,埃塞俄比亚反政府武装逼近首都,国家进入紧急状态。

All kinds of problems and risks, both those that are predictable and those that are hard to predict, may arise in the midst of these profound changes in the world situation. There may even be some strategic surprises, such as indeterminate international coalitions, widespread financial crises, and, in some countries, political unrest. There is no returning to the past, even for transatlantic U.S.-EU relations. With the help of the Strategic Compass program, the EU wants to push forward with military fusion and thus, by 2025, will establish a 5,000-man joint force for autonomous response to crises. In the midst of a changing world, U.S. and European interests no longer overlap as they once did. They cannot remain as tightly joined as they were during the Cold War in opposition to the Soviet Union. General U.S. dominance over Europe will persist, yet it will, without a doubt, gradually weaken. Conflicts of interest are increasing between them, and their goals are inevitably diverging. The U.S. Biden administration has made many efforts to repair the transatlantic partnership, but a thorough turnaround is difficult to bring about given the influence of domestic politics. Independent defense has become an objective requirement for Europe in light of the evolving situation. It is also a necessary response to the United States tangible and intangible suppression of France and Germany and its method of roping in Central and Eastern Europe. If even European countries cannot solve problems for Europe, then no one can. The G7 Summit held in June 2021 produced minimal results. Practical solutions to the concerns of the European countries met with serious obstacles.

在世界局势深刻变化中,能够预料和难以预料的各种问题和风险都可能出现,甚至会发生一些重大战略意外,如不确定的国家联盟走向、波及广泛的金融危机以及部分国家发生的政治动荡。即使是美欧之间的大西洋关系,也已经回不到过去。欧盟欲借助“战略指南针”计划推进军力融合,在2025年之前建立一支5000人的联合部队,自主应对危机。在世界变局中,美欧之间的利益已不再像过去有那么多的重合,彼此之间不可能像在冷战时期对付苏联那样紧密联合。美国对欧洲总体上的主导优势仍然得以维持,但无疑正在逐步减弱。利益差异增加,目标也就必然趋向分散。美国拜登政府为修复跨大西洋伙伴关系作了许多努力,但受国内政治生态影响,要彻底完成扭转困难重重。独立防务是形势发展对欧盟提出的客观需求,也是对美国有形无形中打压法德、拉拢中东欧做法的必然回应。如果连欧洲国家都不能为欧洲解决问题,就更没有谁能做到了。2021年6月举行的七国集团峰会所取得的成果非常有限,欧洲国家的关切很难落到实处。

The “strategic autonomy” put forward by the EU not only aims to reinforce internal EU cohesion, but also is an actual requirement in response to changes in the European security environment. Without “strategic autonomy,” not only will Europe lack the ability to deal with security challenges such as terrorist attacks, refugee crises, and regional unrest, but also the centripetal forces binding together the EU countries will weaken over the long term. As for Sino-U.S., relations, Europe might benefit from a moderate degree of decoupling. To maintain the necessary strategic initiative, a policy of ambiguity is sometimes superior to clear-cut decisions or choosing sides.

欧盟提出的“战略自主”不仅是为了加强欧盟内部的凝聚力,也是基于应对欧洲安全环境变化的实际需要。没有“战略自主”,欧洲不仅在应对如恐怖袭击、难民危机、地区动荡等安全挑战上缺少足够能力,欧盟各国的向心力长期来看也将被削弱。对于中美关系,适度的超脱或许对欧洲更为有利。为保持必要的战略主动,有些时候保持模糊政策反而胜过作出明确选择或选边站队。

International Security Governance Requires a More Effective Multilateral Governance Mechanism

国际安全治理需要更有效的多边治理机制

Unstable factors have only increased globally, thereby aggravating the imbalance between supply and demand in international security governance. For example, the authority of the United Nations has been eroded, narrow military alliances have raised tensions, and the danger of an arms race and military conflict has risen. These many challenges, overlapping with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, have exacerbated the pre-existing deficit in international security governance. Therefore, the international community urgently needs to build and perfect a more inclusive multilateral system to solve the lack or inadequate supply of international security governance.

全球范围内不稳定因素不减反增,加剧了国际安全治理的供求失衡,如联合国的权威受到侵蚀、狭隘的军事同盟关系加剧紧张局势、军备竞赛和军事冲突危险上升等,诸多挑战和新冠肺炎疫情蔓延叠加在一起,都在推高原本就存在的国际安全治理赤字。为此,国际社会亟需构建和完善更具包容性的多边制度体系,以解决国际安全治理缺失或供应不足的问题。

As the world undergoes profound changes, the original international order led by the United States and Europe will become increasingly unable to provide the international community with enough security-related public goods or enough space for stable development. The era in which world affairs could be decided by a few Western countries coming together is already past and will never return. The changing world demands that all countries jointly work actively towards using more effective international coordination and cooperation to deal with transnational and global security risks and challenges and to placate and hedge against the enormous conflicts which might result from uncertainties. There remains a huge space in which the United Nations and the relevant regional cooperation organizations can play their roles, but they need to further adapt to new situations and make necessary reforms. At the same time, some new regional and international mechanisms continue to make progress. For example, security cooperation under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization framework has been playing a more active role in Central Asia. The ever-increasing demand for security cooperation and security governance will spur continuous change in international relations.

世界变局深度展开,被美欧国家所主导的原有国际秩序越来越难以为国际社会提供足够的安全公共产品和稳定发展的增长空间。过去由几个西方国家凑在一起就能决定世界事务的时代已经一去不复返了。变化的世界需要各国共同作出积极努力,以更加有效的国际协调与合作应对跨国性和全球性安全风险和挑战,消解和对冲不确定性可能带来的巨大冲击。联合国和有关区域合作组织仍有发挥作用的巨大空间,但是需要进一步适应新形势并作出必要改革。与此同时,一些新的地区和国际机制也在不断取得进展,如上海合作组织框架下的安全合作在中亚地区发挥着更积极的作用。对安全合作、安全治理不断增加的需求,将促进国际关系不断变化。

Although world disorder has become apparent, contradictions have deepened, and difficulties have proliferated, the need among the nations of the world for peace and development has not only not declined, but has grown more pressing. Repeated crises and conflicts warn us again and again that the international community should not only strengthen multilateral cooperation and strive to avoid war, but, even more importantly, it should actively build and maintain peace. Therefore, we must effectively advance the global governance process, gradually find channels and measures for resolving disputes and ending conflicts, and achieve a beneficial balance between institutional supply and practical demand, thereby promoting the realization of sustainable development and sustainable security.

尽管世界乱象凸显、矛盾深化、难题增多,但世界各国对和平与发展的需求不仅没有减少,反而更加迫切。此起彼伏的危机和冲突一再警示,国际社会不仅要加强多边合作努力避免战争,更要积极地构筑与维护和平。因此,必须有效推进全球治理进程,逐步找到化解纠纷、消弭冲突的途径和办法,实现制度供给与现实需求之间的有益平衡,从而促进实现可持续发展和可持续安全。

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Cite This Page

唐永胜 (Tang Yongsheng). "The International Security Situation in 2021: Unstable Factors Increase, Uncertain Risks Rise [2021年国际安全形势:不稳定因素增加 不确定风险上升]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Contemporary World [当代世界], January 15, 2022

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