The New Right in Latin America is an emerging political force that has come to power in recent years in countries including Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador, Panama, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, and Honduras. Most of these forces embrace economic liberalism, political authoritarianism, and cultural conservatism and advocate comprehensive and thorough social transformation. Because their organizational and operational logic and policy orientations differ somewhat from those of the traditional right, they have been termed the “New Right.” Among them, some national leaders have been labeled “far-right” because they pursue more extremely conservative policies. The composition of the New Right in Latin America is highly complex: its political spectrum ranges from the far right to the center-right, its ideological positions range from extreme to conservative, and its supporters range from elites to the istrata of society. Countries governed by New Right parties share certain commonalities while also having distinctive characteristics of their own. A report by the Latin American Studies Association (LASA) describes the New Right in Latin America as “a composite political force that combines such diverse elements as hypernationalism, anti-gender politics, radical liberalism, and populist mobilization.”1 The strong momentum behind the rise of the New Right in Latin America has attracted widespread attention from the international community. Its rise has been driven both by changes in domestic political and social currents of thought and by support from external right-wing conservative forces. It reflects both the objective influence of the traditional political pendulum and alternation between the left and right and the proactive stance of the New Right in adeptly grasping public sentiment and calling for change. The fact that the New Right has come to power in many Latin American countries is attributable to a considerable extent to its effective grasp of timing and use of electoral strategies. The principal challenges confronting the New Right after taking office are how to fulfill its campaign promises, safeguard national sovereignty and independence in the face of pressure from U.S. interference, overcome difficulties in national governance, and identify a realistic and feasible path of development.
拉美新右翼是近年来在巴西、阿根廷、萨尔瓦多、巴拿马、厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚、智利、洪都拉斯等国执政的新兴政治力量,其多数推崇经济自由主义、政治威权主义与文化保守主义,主张进行全面彻底的社会变革,与传统右翼的组织运作逻辑及政策取向不尽相同,因此被称为“新右翼”。其中,部分国家领导人因奉行更加极端保守的政策,被称为“极右翼”。拉美新右翼的组成十分复杂,其政治光谱从极右到中右,思想主张从极端到保守,支持群体从精英到底层。新右翼政党执政的国家既有共性,也有自身特点。拉丁美洲研究协会(LASA)的报告认为,拉美新右翼是“融合了超国家主义、反性别政治、激进自由主义与民粹动员等多种要素的复合型政治力量”。当前,拉美新右翼因强势兴起势头,受到国际社会广泛关注,其背后既有内部政治社会思潮变化的驱动,也有外部右翼保守力量的助推;既有传统政治钟摆左右轮替的客观因素,也有新右翼善抓民意、呼吁变革的主动姿态。新右翼在拉美多国执政很大程度上得益于其对时机的较好把控与对选举策略的有效运用。如何兑现竞选承诺、如何在美国干涉压力下维护国家主权与独立、如何破解国家治理困境以及如何找到现实可行的发展道路,是新右翼执政后面临的主要挑战。
Manifestations and characteristics of the rise of the New Right in Latin America
拉美新右翼兴起的表现与特质
In recent years, Latin America’s New Right has put forward numerous reform ideas and policy proposals that are diametrically opposed to those of the left and also differ markedly from those of the traditional right. These ideas and proposals have been welcomed by many voters dissatisfied with the status quo, and the strong momentum behind the New Right’s growth has attracted widespread attention.
近年来,拉美新右翼提出诸多改革理念和政策主张,与左翼截然相反,亦与传统右翼有明显差异,受到不少对现状不满的选民欢迎,其强劲发展势头引发广泛关注。
1. The rise of the New Right in Latin America has significant linkage and demonstration effects
一、拉美新右翼兴起具有显著的联动示范效应
As regional circumstances have evolved, Latin America’s political landscape has undergone a major shift marked by the collective rise of right-wing forces. In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right “political outsider,” was elected president of Brazil, marking the rise of New Right forces in Latin America. Although Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election to Lula, a leading figure of the Brazilian left, by a narrow margin of less than 1 percent, the rise of the New Right did not cease. In February 2019, Nayib Bukele, who holds radical right-wing positions, was elected president of El Salvador. In October 2023, the far-right politician Daniel Noboa was elected president of Ecuador.
随着地区形势发展变化,拉美政治格局出现右翼势力群体性兴起的重大转变。2018年,极右翼的博索纳罗以“政治边缘人”身份当选巴西总统,标志着新右翼力量在拉美兴起。尽管博索纳罗在2022年大选中以不到1%的微弱差距败给巴西左翼代表人物卢拉,但新右翼兴起的步伐并未停止。2019年2月,持激进右翼立场的布克尔当选萨尔瓦多总统。2023年10月,极右翼政治人物诺沃亚当选厄瓜多尔总统。
In November 2023, Javier Milei, a “political outsider” in Argentina, ran in the presidential election as the candidate of the far-right electoral alliance La Libertad Avanza (“Freedom Advances”) and defeated the candidate of the governing left-wing party with 55.65 percent of the vote. After taking office, Milei pursued a series of disruptive reforms, ushering in a process of comprehensive transformation in Argentina. In the October 2025 midterm elections, the governing coalition led by Milei secured more than 40 percent of the vote, gaining 48 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 13 in the Senate. Most notably, it defeated the long-governing left-wing Peronist party in Buenos Aires Province, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Argentina’s population, achieving a key breakthrough.2 Milei sold off or closed dozens of state-owned enterprises and comprehensively deregulated sectors such as energy and transportation. This series of radical “shock therapy” measures prompted widespread public debate. Many people believed that adopting an entirely new model of national governance would help resolve problems such as high inflation and thereby achieve economic growth. Drawing on Milei’s policy measures, Colombia’s right-wing opposition proposed a “Fiscal Responsibility Bill” calling for a cap on the fiscal deficit and cuts to social welfare spending to address excessively high public debt.3 Citing Argentina’s example, members of the Peruvian Congress called for the privatization of the energy and mining sectors to be accelerated in order to attract more foreign investment. Meanwhile, Milei’s campaign strategies, including his anti-establishment narrative and mobilization through social media, attracted the support of large numbers of young people and others dissatisfied with the status quo. His electoral victory provided the Latin American right with a model of political operation from which it could draw lessons. During the election campaign, a Venezuelan opposition leader directly borrowed Milei’s call to “burn down the old system” in an attempt to replicate Milei’s logic of political mobilization.
2023年11月,阿根廷“政治素人”米莱作为极右翼选举联盟“自由前进党”候选人参加大选,以55.65%的得票率击败左翼执政党候选人。米莱上任后推动一系列颠覆性改革,开启阿根廷的全面转型进程。2025年10月中期选举,米莱领导的执政联盟获得超过40%的选票,众议院、参议院席位分别增加48个、13个,尤其是在人口占全国近四成的布宜诺斯艾利斯省,击败长期执政的左翼庇隆主义政党,实现关键突破。米莱出售和关闭数十家国有企业,全面放松对能源、交通等领域的管制,一系列激进的“休克疗法”引发民众广泛讨论,不少人认为采取全新的国家治理模式有助于解决高通胀等问题,进而实现经济增长。哥伦比亚右翼反对党借鉴米莱施政举措,提出“财政责任法案”,要求设定财政赤字上限,削减社会福利支出,以应对过高的公共债务。秘鲁国会议员引用阿根廷案例,呼吁加快能源矿业领域私有化进程,吸引更多外资。与此同时,米莱的反建制叙事、社交媒体动员等竞选策略,吸引大批年轻人和对现状不满人士的支持,其胜选为拉美右翼提供了可资借鉴的政治运作模式。委内瑞拉反对派领导人在竞选中直接借用米莱的“烧毁旧制度”一说,试图复制米莱的政治动员逻辑。
Spurred by the effect of Milei’s example, the Latin American right performed even more strongly in 2025, winning national elections in multiple countries and achieving historic breakthroughs. In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz, the candidate of the center-right Christian Democratic Party, won the general election, ending nearly 20 years of rule by the country’s left. In Chile, José Antonio Kast, the candidate of the far-right Republican Party of Chile, was elected president, breaking the country’s long-standing pattern of alternating center-left and center-right rule. In Honduras, Nasry Asfura, the candidate of the far-right National Party, was elected president, bringing about a rightward shift in the country’s politics. In Ecuador, the right-wing Noboa made public security, the issue of greatest concern to voters, a top priority and pledged to crack down severely on drug trafficking and violent crime, winning the support of large numbers of voters and securing reelection. With a succession of New Right leaders taking office, coupled with the longstanding rule of the right in countries such as Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, and Paraguay, the New Right has become a major force in Latin America’s political landscape. In addition, a group of New Right politicians has emerged in Latin America. Although they have not come to power, their influence continues to grow, and their development momentum should not be underestimated. For example, the far-right Peruvian politician Rafael López Aliaga has attracted attention for his radically conservative and populist positions and has been called the “Bolsonaro of Peru.” The Popular Renewal party that he leads won the 2021 Lima mayoral election. María Fernanda Cabal, a leading figure of Colombia’s far right and a leader of the Democratic Center party, firmly opposes peace talks, supports the use of force to eliminate guerrilla groups, and actively participates in conferences organized by international conservative forces.
在米莱示范效应带动下,2025年拉美右翼表现更为强劲,在多国大选中获胜,实现历史性突破。在玻利维亚,中右翼基督教民主党候选人帕斯赢得大选,结束了该国左翼近20年的执政历史。在智利,极右翼的智利共和党候选人卡斯特当选总统,打破该国长期由中左翼和中右翼交替执政的历史。在洪都拉斯,极右翼国民党候选人阿斯富拉当选总统,推动该国政治从左向右转向。在厄瓜多尔,右翼的诺沃亚将选民最为关切的治安问题置于优先方向,誓言严厉打击毒品走私和暴力犯罪,获得大量选民支持并赢得连任。一批新右翼领导人相继执政,加之巴拿马、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、伯利兹、巴拉圭等国长期由右翼掌权,新右翼已成为拉美政治版图中的重要力量。此外,拉美还涌现出一批新右翼政客,他们虽然没有取得政权,但影响力不断扩大,发展势头不容小觑。例如,秘鲁极右翼政治人物阿利亚加因其激进保守主义和民粹主义立场受到关注,被称为“秘鲁的博索纳罗”,他领导的大众复兴党在2021年利马市长选举中获胜。哥伦比亚极右翼代表人物、民主中心党领导人卡瓦尔坚决反对和平谈判,支持武力清剿游击队,积极参与国际保守力量举办的会议。
2. The New Right exhibits policy orientations combining radicalism and pragmatism
二、新右翼展现出激进与务实并存的政策取向
Although the Latin American countries governed by New Right parties differ somewhat in their positions on the political spectrum and their policy proposals, they also share prominent commonalities. In the economic sphere, they favor liberalization policies and radical reforms. In the political and sociocultural spheres, they advocate upholding extremely conservative traditional values and emphasize a return to “law and order.” In foreign affairs, they exhibit a “pragmatic” tendency to be politically “pro-U.S.” while attaching importance to China in economic and trade relations. This demonstrates the diversity, complexity, flexibility, and pragmatism of the New Right’s policy orientations.
拉美新右翼政党执政的国家在政治光谱分布和政策主张上虽然存在一定差异,但也有突出的共性,即在经济领域倾向自由化政策与激进改革,在政治和社会文化领域主张维护极端保守的传统价值观,强调回归“法律与秩序”,在外交领域则呈现出政治上“亲美”、经贸上重视中国的“实用主义”趋向,这显示出新右翼在政策取向上的多元复杂性与灵活实用性。
First, economic reforms have become “extreme.” The far right advocates adopting “shock therapy” and implementing radical neoliberal reforms to completely dismantle the economic order dominated by the left’s “state interventionism.” After taking office, the Bolsonaro administration in Brazil reduced the number of ministerial-level agencies from 29 to 22, opposed the Workers’ Party’s high-welfare policies, raised the minimum retirement age, extended the required pension contribution period, and accelerated privatization. It completed 50 privatization projects in its first year in office, demonstrating the considerable scale of its reforms. The radical reforms implemented by Argentine President Milei have been even more disruptive and impactful. Describing himself as an “anarcho-capitalist,” he advocates wholesale privatization and complete marketization and has adopted a package of reform measures that includes eliminating government agencies, imposing fiscal austerity, cutting spending, deregulating, and encouraging competition. The United States and other Western countries have lavished praise on him, with some even claiming that he has ushered in “Mileinomics.” Although the economic policies of other countries governed by New Right parties have not been as radical as Milei’s, these countries have also intensified neoliberal reforms to varying degrees. Chilean President Kast is regarded as the country’s most right-wing president in nearly 30 years. Describing himself as an apprentice of the “Chicago School,” he advocates reducing regulation, substantially lowering corporate taxes, and introducing more flexible and relaxed labor laws. His policy orientation is quite similar to Milei’s.4 Bolivian President Paz seeks to break the ideological deadlock and adopts a problem-solving orientation, advocating lower tariffs, a stable exchange rate, and stronger tax incentives. Although Paz has adopted a moderate and pragmatic approach to economic reform, he is nevertheless regarded as “Bolivia’s most right-wing president in nearly two decades.”5
一是经济改革“极端化”。极右翼主张采取“休克疗法”,实行激进的新自由主义改革,以彻底打破左翼“国家干预主义”主导的经济秩序。巴西博索纳罗政府上台后将部级机构由29个减至22个,反对劳工党的高福利政策,提高最低退休年龄,延长养老保险缴费年限,加快私有化进程,执政首年即完成50个私有化项目,改革力度明显。阿根廷总统米莱实施的激进改革更具颠覆性和冲击力,他自称“无政府资本主义者”,主张全盘私有化、彻底市场化,采取裁撤机构、紧缩财政、削减开支、放松管制、鼓励竞争等一揽子改革措施。美西方对其大加吹捧,甚至有人称其开启“米莱经济学”。其他新右翼政党执政的国家在经济政策上虽然没有米莱那么激进,但也不同程度加大新自由主义改革力度。智利总统卡斯特被视为近30年来最右倾的总统,其自称“芝加哥门派”学徒,主张减少监管、大幅下调企业税、出台更灵活宽松的劳动法,与米莱的政策取向颇有相似之处。玻利维亚总统帕斯谋求打破意识形态僵局,以“解决问题”为导向,主张下调关税、稳定汇率、加强税收激励。虽然帕斯采取的是温和务实的经济改革路线,但也被视为“玻利维亚近二十年来最右的总统”。
Second, there is a “conservative turn” in the political and sociocultural spheres. In the political sphere, the New Right generally advocates strengthening “state authority and order,” expanding police and military powers, and severely cracking down on crime. In the sociocultural sphere, it advocates upholding traditional values, opposes gender equality, and calls for the education system to return to “traditional morality.” Chilean President Kast once publicly expressed “nostalgia for the dictatorship of the Pinochet military government,” advocated strengthening the military’s role in national governance, and firmly opposed abortion and same-sex marriage. He claimed that “gender equality is a conspiracy of the left that will destroy families and religion” and stated that he would prohibit primary and secondary schools from teaching content related to gender equality.6 During his tenure as president of Brazil, Bolsonaro publicly opposed same-sex marriage on multiple occasions, stating that “homosexuals are a social pathology,” and pushed Congress to pass legislation restricting same-sex marriage. These leaders launch “culture wars” in defense of traditional values, misrepresenting the multicultural policies of left-wing governments as the “destruction of traditional values” in order to mobilize conservative voters.
二是政治和社会文化领域“保守化”。新右翼在政治领域普遍主张强化“国家权威与秩序”,扩大警察与军队权力,严厉打击犯罪;在社会文化领域主张维护传统价值观,反对性别平等,要求教育体系回归“传统道德”。智利总统卡斯特曾公开表示“怀念皮诺切特军政府的独裁”,主张强化军队在国家治理中的作用,坚决反对堕胎和同性婚姻,称“性别平等是左翼的阴谋,会摧毁家庭与宗教”,表示要禁止中小学教授性别平等相关内容。博索纳罗担任巴西总统期间曾多次公开反对同性婚姻,称“同性恋者是社会病态”,并推动国会通过法案加以限制。这些领导人通过发动维护传统价值观的“文化战争”,将左翼政府的多元文化政策歪曲为“对传统价值观的破坏”,以此动员保守派选民。
Third, foreign policy exhibits a degree of “pragmatism.” Countries governed by the right, including Argentina, Panama, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Paraguay, generally exhibit a “pro-U.S. and anti-communist” ideological orientation and strongly endorse Trump’s “America First” philosophy. In the political sphere, they cooperate with the U.S. strategy of dividing Latin America by “suppressing the left and supporting the right,” while in the security sphere, they respond to U.S. demands regarding counternarcotics efforts and crackdowns on illegal immigration. These countries are viewed as the Trump administration’s “political allies” in the Western Hemisphere. In the economic and trade sphere, however, many countries governed by the right have come to recognize through practice the importance of diversifying their external cooperation. In particular, they have become acutely aware that their economic development cannot proceed without China. They attach importance to China’s market, capital, and technology and hope to expand pragmatic cooperation with China in pursuit of new development opportunities. Even Argentine President Milei, who is strongly “pro-U.S.,” has demonstrated a pragmatic side in cooperation with China. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he praised China as “a great trading partner” and has also publicly expressed his desire to visit China on multiple occasions.
三是外交上展现出一定“务实性”。阿根廷、巴拿马、哥斯达黎加、厄瓜多尔、巴拉圭等右翼执政的国家在意识形态上普遍有“亲美反共”色彩,对特朗普的“美国优先”理念高度认同,政治领域配合美国在拉美地区的“打左扶右”分化策略,安全领域呼应美国在禁毒、打击非法移民上的需求,这些国家被视为美国特朗普政府在西半球的“政治盟友”。但在经贸领域,不少右翼执政的国家从实践中认识到对外拓展多元合作的重要性,尤其是深刻意识到本国经济发展离不开中国,重视中国的市场、资金和技术,希望扩大与中国的务实合作,谋求新的发展机遇。即便是高度“亲美”的阿根廷总统米莱,在对华合作上也表现出务实的一面,他在达沃斯论坛上称赞“中国是伟大的贸易伙伴”,还多次公开表达了访华的愿望。
3. The New Right is not simply a return of the traditional right
三、新右翼并非传统右翼的简单回归
Latin America’s New Right shares a degree of historical continuity with the traditional right, which advocated neoliberal reforms in the 1990s. Both advocate economic liberalization, marketization, and privatization, emphasize reducing state intervention, and favor maintaining close cooperation with the United States in foreign relations. Their supporters include the business community and members of the upper middle class. Compared with the traditional right, however, the New Right exhibits more new characteristics, including more forceful economic and social reforms, a more “instrumentalized” approach to politics and ideology, and greater emphasis on new social movement models in its organization and operations. To win public support, it mobilizes around diverse issues involving the economy, public security, culture, and religion, expanding its voter base to different social groups, including young students, people living in poverty, the unemployed, and religious conservatives. In foreign relations, it also displays its “pro-U.S.” position more openly and prominently.
拉美新右翼与20世纪90年代主张推行新自由主义改革的传统右翼有一定历史传承,二者在经济上都主张自由化、市场化、私有化,强调减少国家干预,在对外关系上倾向与美国保持密切合作,其支持者包括工商企业界和中上阶层人士。但与传统右翼相比,新右翼展现出更多新特质,包括经济和社会改革力度更大,政治和意识形态更加“工具化”,组织运作更注重新的社会运动模式,争取民意上通过经济、治安、文化、宗教等多元议题运作,将选民基础拓展到青年学生、贫困失业者、宗教保守人士等不同阶层,对外关系上更为公开高调地展现“亲美”立场。
In its economic and social policies, the traditional right generally supports economic globalization, advocates gradual neoliberal reforms, emphasizes properly balancing efficiency and equity, and tends to retain basic welfare systems and state regulation of core industries. The New Right, by contrast, generally has reservations about multilateral cooperation. Some countries governed by the radical right place a one-sided emphasis “on putting their national interests first” and oppose globalization. Economically, they advocate radical liberal reforms, strongly champion “minimal government,” reject welfare systems wholesale, and call for substantial cuts to social welfare.
经济和社会政策上,传统右翼普遍支持经济全球化,主张渐进式的新自由主义改革,强调要统筹好效率与公平,倾向保留基本福利体系以及国家对核心行业的调控。新右翼则普遍对多边合作持保留态度,一些激进右翼执政的国家片面强调“本国优先”,反对全球化,经济上主张激进自由主义改革,极力推崇“政府最小化”,全面否定福利制度,主张大幅削减社会福利。
In politics and ideology, the traditional right typically consists of establishment elites. It emphasizes maintaining the existing political system and social order, respects the authority of elites, and advocates gradual political reform and compromise within the existing system. The New Right, by contrast, has a strong anti-establishment and populist character. It portrays itself as the “spokesperson for the people” and advocates mobilizing the public against the “corrupt elite.” It criticizes not only members of left-wing parties but also traditional right-wing elites. Argentine President Milei collectively referred to traditional right-wing parties and left-wing governments as the “political oligarchy” and declared that his election represented “a revolution of the people against the elite.” In their stances toward democratic institutions, the traditional right advocates fully accepting and respecting the overall institutional framework of “liberal democracy.” The New Right, particularly far-right forces, displays skepticism and contempt toward checks and balances, minority rights, and the free and independent operation of the media. After taking office, its conflicts with legislative and judicial institutions are generally more frequent and intense. During his tenure as president of Brazil, Bolsonaro regarded Congress and the Supreme Court as “institutional obstacles” and repeatedly threatened to dissolve Congress. After losing his bid for reelection, he incited his supporters to storm the National Congress building, an action viewed as a Brazilian replica of the U.S. Capitol riot.
政治和意识形态上,传统右翼通常是建制内的精英人士,强调维护现有政治体制与社会秩序,尊重精英阶层的权威,主张渐进式政治改革与体制内妥协。新右翼则具有强烈的反建制及民粹主义色彩,将自身塑造为“人民的代言人”,主张发动民众对抗“腐败的精英”,其不仅抨击左翼政党人士,也时常批评传统右翼精英。阿根廷总统米莱将传统右翼政党与左翼政府统称为“政治寡头”,宣称自己的当选是“人民对精英的革命”。在对民主制度的立场上,传统右翼主张全面接受并尊重“自由民主”的整体制度框架,而新右翼尤其是极右翼力量则对权力制衡、少数群体权利以及媒体的自由独立运作等表现出怀疑和蔑视态度,其执政后与立法、司法机构的冲突通常更为频繁激烈。博索纳罗在担任巴西总统期间将国会、最高法院视为“体制障碍”,多次威胁解散国会,大选连任失利后煽动支持者冲击国会大厦,这一行动被视为美国“国会山骚乱”的翻版。
In terms of organization and operations, the traditional right relies on grassroots party organizations and mainstream media for mobilization and publicity. The New Right, by contrast, bypasses traditional media and party systems, using short videos, livestreams, and online hype to disseminate simplified political slogans and cultivate the image of a “heroic leader.” Salvadoran President Bukele livestreamed anti-gang operations on TikTok, with a single video receiving more than 100 million views and attracting the support of large numbers of internet users. Argentine President Milei appeared on a television program wielding a chainsaw as a symbol of “cutting ties” with the old system, briefly becoming a focal point of global public attention.
组织运作上,传统右翼依赖政党基层组织与主流媒体进行动员宣传,新右翼则绕过传统媒体与政党体系,通过短视频、直播、网络炒作等方式传播简化的政治口号,塑造“英雄式领袖”形象。萨尔瓦多总统布克尔通过TikTok直播打击黑帮的行动,单条视频播放量超1亿次,吸引大量网民支持。阿根廷总统米莱在电视节目中手持电锯,象征与旧制度的“切割”,一时成为全球舆论焦点。
Causes of the rise of the New Right in Latin America
拉美新右翼兴起的原因
The rise of the New Right in Latin America is rooted in a profound and complex contemporary context and is the product of both internal and external factors. Internally, Latin America’s increasingly severe development difficulties have driven changes in the region’s political landscape, while voters’ strong desire for something new and for change has created opportunities for the New Right to enter the political arena. Externally, the global rise of conservatism and growing coordination among conservative forces have provided guidance for the New Right’s ideas and actions.
拉美新右翼的兴起有深刻而复杂的时代背景,是内外因素共同作用的产物。从内部看,拉美日益严峻的发展困境催生地区政治生态变化,选民求新求变意识强烈,为新右翼登上政治舞台提供了契机。从外部看,全球保守主义抬头并形成串联,为新右翼提供思想和行动指引。
First, the ferment of diverse political and social currents seeking novelty and change has created opportunities for the New Right to grow in strength. The spread of a crisis of confidence characterized by the rejection of “tradition,” “authority,” and “incumbents” has provided a basis for the “anti-establishment” New Right to come to power. For more than a decade, a series of structural problems has constrained Latin America’s economic and social development, plunging the region into severe difficulties. From 2015 to 2024, Latin America’s economy experienced a second “lost decade,” with an average annual growth rate of only 0.9 percent. Prolonged economic stagnation has exacerbated poverty, the wealth gap, public security problems, and other issues. In 2025, Latin America’s poverty rate reached 33.2 percent, its youth unemployment rate was as high as 28.5 percent, and its Gini coefficient reached 0.51, far above the global average of 0.38.7 The economic downturn has led to a continuing deterioration in public security, making public security one of the issues of greatest concern to the public. Latin America has the world’s highest rate of organized crime. Hundreds of large organized criminal groups, including drug cartels, gangs, and militias, have remained active for years, and Latin America has the world’s highest homicide rate.8 Faced with these many problems, public discontent has soared. The despair of those living in poverty has become intertwined with the anger of the middle class. Extreme distrust of the existing system, traditional political parties, veteran political figures, and those in power has grown steadily, while confidence in countries’ development prospects has seriously eroded. A report released in 2025 by Latinobarómetro, a Latin American polling organization, showed that 68 percent of respondents believed that “traditional political parties are unable to represent the interests of the people,” while 72 percent were “disappointed with the existing political system.” Public trust in political parties stood at only 17 percent, and trust in Congress at only 24 percent.9 In this social climate of profound distrust toward the traditional system, voters have cast “angry votes” and “punitive votes” against those in power, causing governing parties to suffer successive defeats in national elections. Latin America’s Generation Z displays a particularly strong rejection of tradition and elites. Accustomed to expressing their demands through social media, its members have a pronounced anti-establishment character. Because neither the traditional left nor the traditional right has been able to resolve the region’s development problems, the public hopes that emerging political forces and new leaders will arise to carry out comprehensive and thorough reforms. During Chile’s 2025 general election, 42 percent of voters identified a “desire for change” as their foremost consideration in voting, ahead of the economy at 38 percent and public security at 35 percent. New Right forces comprising emerging parties, fringe parties, and “political outsiders” have capitalized on this momentum and moved quickly to fill the power vacuum. Some radical right-wing politicians have played the populist card, vigorously attacking the existing system and frequently making statements opposing immigration and gender equality in an effort to cultivate an image of being unafraid to defy convention and willing to forge ahead. The New Right’s political positions combine economic and moral issues, winning support from the upper strata of society, parts of the middle class, and large numbers of people from the lower strata. It therefore has a broader base of public support.10
第一,求新求变的多元政治社会思潮激荡为新右翼拓展力量带来机遇。“反传统”“反权威”“反现任”的不信任危机蔓延为“反建制”的新右翼提供执政基础。十余年来,拉美经济社会发展受一系列结构性问题制约,陷入严重困局。2015—2024年,拉美经济出现第二个“失去的十年”,年均增长率仅为0.9%。经济长期不振导致贫困、贫富差距、治安等问题不断加剧。2025年拉美贫困率达33.2%,青年失业率高达28.5%,基尼系数达到0.51,远超0.38这一全球平均水平。经济低迷导致社会治安形势不断恶化,治安问题成为民众最关切的议题之一。拉美有组织犯罪率为全球之最,贩毒集团、黑帮和民兵组织等数百个大型有组织犯罪集团常年活跃,拉美凶杀率居全球首位。面对多种问题,民众的不满情绪高涨,贫困群体的绝望与中产阶层的愤怒交织,对既有体制、传统政党、老牌政治人物以及当政者的极度不信任与日俱增,对国家发展前途严重缺乏信心。2025年拉美民调机构“拉丁美洲晴雨表”发布的报告显示,68%的受访者认为“传统政党无法代表民众利益”,72%的受访者“对现有政治体制感到失望”,民众对政党的信任度只有17%,对国会的信任度只有24%。在对传统体制高度不信任的社会氛围下,选民对当政者投下“愤怒票”“惩罚票”,导致执政党在大选中接连失利。拉美“Z世代”的反传统、反精英意识尤为强烈,他们习惯通过社交媒体表达诉求,具有强烈的反建制色彩。由于传统左右翼都无法破解发展难题,民众希望出现新兴政治力量和新任领导人,进行全面彻底的改革。2025年智利大选期间,42%的选民将“变革意愿”列为投票首要考虑因素,超过经济(38%)与治安(35%)议题。由新兴政党、边缘政党以及“政治素人”等组成的新右翼力量乘势而上,抓紧填补权力真空。一些右翼激进政治人物纷纷打出民粹牌,大力抨击现有体制,频繁发表反移民、反对性别平等言论,旨在打造不畏世俗、敢于进取的形象。新右翼的政治主张融合经济与道德议题,赢得社会上层、部分中产阶级和大批底层民众的支持,其民意基础更为广泛。
Latin America’s entry into a political cycle of “the left declining and the right rising” has created opportunities for the New Right to govern. Because neither the left nor the right has been able to resolve the many problems confronting national and social development, contention between the left and right and changes of governing party have become the norm. Latin America’s most recent “leftward turn” began in 2018, when the left successively came to power in Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Colombia, Brazil, and other countries, giving rise to a new “Pink Tide.” Although the left won elections in many countries, constraints imposed by opposition parties prevented it from undertaking comprehensive structural reforms. As a result, it could neither resolve the problem of sustainable economic development nor improve the public security situation that increasingly concerned voters. As the left lost large numbers of supporters, left-wing forces in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, and other countries suffered successive defeats in national elections in recent years, with representatives of the New Right winning in every case. This indicates that Latin America’s political pendulum has begun a “rightward turn” and that the region has entered a new cycle of right-wing rule. In 2026, right-wing parties in Peru and Colombia have attracted even greater attention in their national elections, while Lula, Brazil’s president and a traditional left-wing political figure, also faces strong challenges from far-right candidates.
拉美地区进入“左下右上”政治周期为新右翼执政提供契机。由于左右两翼都难以解决国家和社会发展中的诸多问题,左右博弈、政党轮替成为常态。拉美上一轮“左转”始于2018年,左翼相继在墨西哥、阿根廷、秘鲁、玻利维亚、智利、洪都拉斯、哥伦比亚、巴西等国执政,掀起新一轮“粉红浪潮”。左翼虽在不少国家赢得选举,但囿于反对党掣肘,难以进行全面的结构性改革,这导致其既无法解决经济可持续发展问题,也无力改善选民日益关注的社会治安问题。随着支持者大量流失,阿根廷、玻利维亚、智利、洪都拉斯等国左翼在近几年大选中接连失利,而获胜者均为新右翼代表人物,这表明拉美政治钟摆开始“右转”,进入新的右翼执政周期。2026年,秘鲁、哥伦比亚的右翼政党在大选中更加引人关注,传统左翼政治人物——巴西总统卢拉也面临极右翼候选人的强势挑战。
Second, the New Right has intensified its theoretical and practical exploration, seeking to respond to voters’ demands through the results of reform. To further clarify their positioning, New Right parties have focused on strengthening their articulation of ideology and reform policies, with the aim of clearly distinguishing themselves from the left and the traditional right. The New Right centers its discourse on opposition to elites and the system, collectively labeling traditional political parties and political elites, including some on the right, the “corrupt oligarchy,” while deliberately cultivating an image as the “spokesperson for the people.” In contrast to the left’s “state interventionism” and “multicultural policies,” the New Right adheres to “radical liberalism” and “cultural conservatism.” It explicitly opposes nationalization, the welfare state, and gender equality, advocates wholesale privatization, and firmly upholds traditional values. During the election campaign, Chilean President Kast proposed “conservative constitution-making,” openly confronting the left’s proposal for “pluralist constitution-making.” During his campaign, Bolivian President Paz called for “ending 20 years of left-wing rule and rebuilding national order,” conveying a clear policy direction to voters and ultimately defeating the long-governing left-wing government.
第二,新右翼加强理论与实践探索,力图以改革成效回应选民诉求。为进一步明确政党定位,新右翼注重加强意识形态和改革政策论述,目的是与左翼和传统右翼作出明确分隔。新右翼以反精英、反体制为核心话语,将包括部分右翼在内的传统政党与政治精英统称为“腐败寡头”,刻意塑造“人民代言人”形象。与左翼的“国家干预主义”和“多元文化政策”相反,新右翼秉持“激进自由主义”与“文化保守主义”,明确反对国有化、福利社会与性别平等,主张全面私有化,坚守传统价值观。智利总统卡斯特在大选期间提出“保守制宪”,与左翼的“多元制宪”主张公开对垒。玻利维亚总统帕斯在竞选期间提出“结束左翼20年统治,重建国家秩序”,向选民传递明确政策方向,最终击败长期执政的左翼政府。
Unlike traditional political parties, which emphasize political compromise and policy balance, the New Right has unequivocally introduced a series of radical reform proposals. In the economic sphere, the New Right advocates intensifying neoliberal reforms. Argentine President Milei introduced the omnibus bill “Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines,” containing 238 reform provisions, including reducing the number of public employees, relaxing exchange-rate controls, cutting energy subsidies, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. In December 2025, the Milei administration stated in a report marking its second anniversary in office that its reforms had made progress in eliminating the fiscal deficit and inflation, maintaining public order, and reducing public spending. Argentina had achieved fiscal surpluses for two consecutive years, while the monthly inflation rate had fallen from 25.5 percent in December 2023 to 1.6 percent in June 2025, the poverty rate had declined from 52.9 percent to 31.6 percent, and the number of homicides nationwide had fallen to its lowest level in nearly 25 years.11 The Noboa administration in Ecuador has vigorously advanced pension reform, raising the pension eligibility age from 60 to 65, while also cutting government spending. Since taking office, it has achieved important results in promoting fiscal sustainability and enhancing economic dynamism. The monthly inflation rate fell to 1.24 percent in October 2025, its lowest level in nearly four years.12 In the sphere of public security, the New Right favors “iron-fisted governance” and “zero tolerance” for crime. In 2022, Salvadoran President Bukele declared a “state of exception,” allowing the police to detain suspects without arrest warrants. Under a series of forceful measures, public security in El Salvador has improved markedly. The homicide rate fell sharply from 50.4 per 100,000 people in 2018 to 1.36 in 2025,13 transforming El Salvador from a country with one of the world’s more serious violent crime problems into one of the safest countries in Latin America. Because of the notable results achieved in combating crime, Bukele’s approval rating has remained above 70 percent for an extended period. In 2024, he won reelection with 83 percent of the vote. During Bolsonaro’s tenure as president of Brazil, he pushed Congress to pass the Anti-Crime Law, granting the police broader law-enforcement powers and bringing about a marked decline in the violent crime rate. To a certain extent, these highly targeted reform measures have responded to the public’s core demands for economic development and public security, giving the New Right greater leverage to consolidate its governing foundation.
与传统政党注重政治妥协和政策平衡不同,新右翼旗帜鲜明地推出一系列激进改革方案。在经济领域,新右翼主张加大新自由主义改革力度。阿根廷总统米莱推出“阿根廷人自由基础和起点”综合法案,包含裁减公职人员、放松汇率管制、削减能源补贴、国有企业私有化等238项改革条款。2025年12月,米莱政府在执政两周年报告中指出,改革在消除财政赤字和通货膨胀、保障公共秩序、减少公共支出方面取得进展,已连续两年实现财政盈余,月度通胀率从2023年12月的25.5%下降到2025年6月的1.6%,贫困率从52.9%降至31.6%,全国凶杀案数量降至近25年来最低水平。厄瓜多尔诺沃亚政府力推养老金改革,将领取年龄从60岁提高至65岁,同时削减政府支出,执政以来在促进财政可持续性和提升经济活力方面取得重要成绩,2025年10月的月度通胀率下降到1.24%,为近4年来最低。在社会治安领域,新右翼倾向“铁腕治理”,对犯罪“零容忍”。萨尔瓦多总统布克尔2022年宣布实施“战时状态”,允许警方无需逮捕令即可拘押嫌疑人。在一系列强力措施下,萨尔瓦多社会治安状况明显改善,每10万人遭凶杀率从2018年的50.4起大幅下降到2025年的1.36起,萨尔瓦多从全球暴力犯罪较严重的国家变为拉美最安全的国家之一。因打击犯罪成效显著,布克尔支持率长期保持在70%以上,2024年其以83%的高得票率连任。博索纳罗任巴西总统期间,推动国会通过《公共安全法》,赋予警方更大执法权,使暴力犯罪率明显下降。这些颇具针对性的改革举措,在一定程度上回应了民众对经济发展与社会安全的核心诉求,为新右翼巩固执政基础赢得更多筹码。
Third, the resurgence of conservative forces worldwide and the escalation of U.S. actions to “suppress the left and support the right” in Latin America have provided major external impetus for the rise of the New Right in Latin America. The global resurgence of conservatism has provided guidance for the New Right’s ideas and actions. Ultraconservative political forces in the United States and Europe have made noneconomic issues such as religion, same-sex marriage, immigration, and public security central election issues, winning the support of large numbers of conservative and evangelical Christian voters. Trump’s reelection as president of the United States and the continued rise of far-right parties in Europe mark a powerful global resurgence of conservatism. Emboldened by these developments, right-wing political elites in Latin America have begun to imitate the political marketing and campaign strategies of far-right politicians in the United States and Europe and have stepped up their interactions and coordination. Argentine President Milei is a staunch supporter of Trump, and the two are closely aligned ideologically. Milei has traveled to the United States to meet with Trump on multiple occasions, and the two frequently echo and support each other on social media. Milei, Kast, Bukele, and other leading representatives of the Latin American right have also repeatedly attended events organized by the two far-right organizations, the Conservative Political Action Conference and the Madrid Forum. Brazil and Mexico hosted the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2019 and 2023, respectively. Coordination among conservative forces worldwide has provided ideological and operational guidance for Latin America’s New Right. Milei’s “radical liberalism” derives directly from the theories of U.S. economist Milton Friedman, while his proposal for “dollarization” has received public support from conservative U.S. think tanks. Chilean President Kast’s “anti-gender ideology” slogan draws on the policy rhetoric of the Hungarian government under Viktor Orbán. The Trump administration in the United States has escalated its actions in the Western Hemisphere to “suppress the left and support the right,”aiding the rise of the New Right in Latin America. At the end of 2025, the Trump administration released the U.S. National Security Strategy, which put forward the “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,” also known as the “Donroe Doctrine.” The administration declared that it would “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere,” repositioned Latin America as an area of core interests, increased its intervention in Latin American affairs, and adopted a divisive strategy of openly supporting the right and attacking the left.14 In early 2026, the United States suddenly launched a military operation against Venezuela and forcibly abducted President Maduro and his wife. This seriously intimidated the region’s left-wing camp and further inflamed the right’s desire to seize power.
第三,全球保守势力回潮与美国对拉美“打左扶右”行动升级为拉美新右翼兴起提供重要外部推力。全球保守主义回潮为新右翼提供思想和行动指引。美欧极端保守政治势力将宗教、同性婚姻、移民、公共安全等非经济议题纳入选举核心议题,争取到大量保守主义和基督教福音派选民支持。特朗普再度当选美国总统,欧洲的极右翼政党不断崛起,标志着全球保守主义强力回潮。拉美的右翼政治精英因此受到鼓舞,开始效仿美欧极右翼政客的政治营销和竞选策略,并加强互动串联。阿根廷总统米莱是特朗普的坚定支持者,双方意识形态立场高度一致。米莱曾多次前往美国拜会特朗普,两人在社交媒体上时常相互唱和、支持。米莱、卡斯特、布克尔等拉美国家右翼代表人物还多次参加“保守派政治行动会议”“马德里论坛”两大极右翼组织举办的活动。巴西和墨西哥分别在2019年、2023年举办“保守派政治行动会议”。全球保守势力的联动为拉美新右翼提供了意识形态和行动方面的指导。米莱的“激进自由主义”思想直接源自美国经济学家弗里德曼的理论,其“美元化”主张得到美国保守派智库的公开支持。智利总统卡斯特的“反性别意识形态”口号则借鉴了匈牙利欧尔班政府的政策话术。美国特朗普政府在西半球“打左扶右”行动升级为拉美新右翼兴起提供助力。2025年底,特朗普政府发布美国《国家安全战略》报告,提出“门罗主义的特朗普推论”(即“唐罗主义”),宣称要“恢复美国在西半球的主导地位”,将拉美重新定位为核心利益板块,加大对拉美事务的干预力度,并采取分化策略,公开支持右翼,打击左翼。 2026年初,美国突然对委内瑞拉采取军事行动,强掳总统马杜罗夫妇,对地区左翼阵营形成严重威慑,右翼夺取政权的欲望进一步膨胀。
The United States’ support for right-wing forces in Latin America is reflected mainly in two areas. First, political support. Before and after Argentina’s 2023 general election, Trump repeatedly expressed support for Milei on social media, saying that Milei would “make Argentina great again” and promising to strengthen cooperation between the United States and Argentina if Milei were elected.15 During Bolivia’s 2025 general election, the U.S. ambassador to Bolivia publicly criticized the left-wing government for “undermining democracy,” indirectly lending support to the right-wing candidate. The United States has also sought to isolate left-wing governments in the region and create a political environment favorable to the New Right by supporting the Venezuelan opposition, imposing sanctions on Cuba, and taking other such measures. Second, economic support. Through the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral financial institutions, the United States provides loans to right-wing governments on the condition that they implement neoliberal reforms. After Milei took office, the International Monetary Fund immediately stated that it would increase its assistance. Meanwhile, the United States has intensified financial, trade, energy, and other sanctions against countries governed by radical left-wing parties in order to help the right seize power.
美国对拉美右翼势力的支持主要体现在两方面。一是政治支持。2023年阿根廷大选前后,特朗普多次借由社交媒体表达对米莱的支持,称其“将让阿根廷再次伟大”,并承诺若其当选将加强美阿合作。 2025年玻利维亚大选期间,美国驻玻利维亚大使公开批评左翼政府“破坏民主”,间接为右翼候选人站台。美国还通过支持委内瑞拉反对派、制裁古巴等方式,孤立地区左翼政权,营造有利于新右翼的政治环境。二是经济支持。美国通过国际货币基金组织等多边金融机构向右翼政府提供贷款,条件是右翼政府须推行新自由主义改革。米莱执政后,国际货币基金组织立即表示将加大援助。同时,美国对激进左翼政党执政的国家加大金融、贸易、能源等制裁,以助力右翼夺取政权。
Support from the United States and conservative forces worldwide has bolstered the momentum of the New Right in Latin America. During Argentina’s 2023 general election, Milei’s polling support rose by 8 percentage points after Trump publicly voiced his support for him. During Chile’s 2025 general election, OpenSecrets, a U.S. organization that tracks political funding, stated in an analysis that Kast had likely received financial support from conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute and that the volume of his campaign advertising was 2.3 times that of the left-wing candidate.16
美国与全球保守势力的支持抬高了拉美新右翼的声势。2023年阿根廷大选期间,米莱在获得特朗普声援后,支持率上升8个百分点。2025年智利大选期间,美国的政治资金追踪机构(OpenSecrets)分析称,卡斯特很可能获得了美国传统基金会、美国企业公共政策研究所等保守派智库的资金支持,其竞选广告投放量是左翼候选人的2.3倍。
Development prospects for the New Right in Latin America
拉美新右翼的发展前景
In the short term, the New Right in Latin America will continue its strong upward trajectory. The New Right represents an important emerging political force in the region. The impact of its rise is extending beyond electoral politics into the institutional, social, cultural, and other spheres. The New Right has introduced comprehensive economic and social reforms that have, to some extent, responded to voters’ desire for something new and for change. Some countries governed by right-wing parties have achieved relatively clear results in stabilizing their macroeconomies and improving public security governance. The Milei administration in Argentina has sharply reduced inflation, and UK Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch praised it as “a model of liberal reform.” The Bukele administration in El Salvador has dramatically reduced the crime rate and achieved notable results in public security governance in the region. The demonstration effect of these examples has contributed to historic victories for right-wing forces in Bolivia, Chile, and other countries.
短期看,拉美新右翼仍将保持强劲上升态势。新右翼代表该地区新兴的重要政治力量,其兴起所带来的影响正超越选举政治范畴,向制度、社会、文化等层面延伸。新右翼推行全面的经济和社会改革,一定程度上回应了选民求新求变的愿望,一些右翼政党执政的国家在稳定宏观经济和提升安全治理上取得较为明显的成效。阿根廷米莱政府大幅降低通胀,英国保守党领袖巴德诺赫称赞其为“自由主义改革的典范”。萨尔瓦多的布克尔政府大幅降低犯罪率,在地区安全治理上取得显著成效。在上述示范效应下,玻利维亚、智利等国右翼取得历史性胜利。
As Latin America’s political landscape shifts in a direction favorable to governance by right-wing parties and the United States intensifies implementation of its “Donroe Doctrine” aimed at controlling and dividing Latin America, the region’s “rightward turn” may well accelerate. In February 2026, Costa Rica held a general election, in which Laura Fernández, the candidate of the right-wing Sovereign People’s Party, won the presidency. Peru, Colombia, Brazil, and other countries will also hold general elections in 2026. New Right forces are highly competitive in all of these countries, potentially disrupting Latin America’s political landscape of coexistence between left- and right-wing governments. The rise of the New Right in Latin America and the escalation of U.S. interference are mutually reinforcing, exerting a major impact on Latin America’s geopolitical landscape and the development of the regional situation. As U.S. interference and coercive actions continue to escalate, left-wing governments in Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and other countries face existential tests. Tensions between the left and right will intensify, the regional integration process will be severely impeded, and Latin America will enter a distinctive period of change marked by deepening internal political and social tensions and increased external interference.
随着拉美政治生态向有利于右翼政党执政的方向转化,加之美国加紧实施其控制、分化拉美的“唐罗主义”,地区“右转”恐加速推进。2026年2月,哥斯达黎加举行大选,右翼政党主权人民党候选人劳拉·费尔南德斯赢得总统选举。秘鲁、哥伦比亚、巴西等国家也将于2026年举行大选,目前新右翼力量在这些国家都具备较强竞争力,拉美左右共治的政治格局恐被打破。拉美新右翼兴起与美国升级干涉形成联动效应,对拉美地缘政治格局以及地区形势发展产生重要影响。随着美国的干涉和胁迫行动不断升级,委内瑞拉、古巴、尼加拉瓜等国左翼政权面临生死存亡的考验,左右两翼矛盾加剧,地区一体化进程将严重受阻,拉美将进入内部政治社会矛盾加深、外部干涉增多的特殊变化期。
Faced with impediments to their autonomous development and growing pressure to “choose sides” in great-power rivalry, Latin American countries tend to handle their foreign relations more cautiously, and those governed by the right are no exception. Some countries that are highly economically dependent on the United States hope to take maximum advantage of U.S.-driven “nearshoring” to expand domestic production and increase exports to the United States, while also taking important markets such as China into account. Because some South American countries have closer economic and trade ties with China, they generally pursue balanced diplomacy, aligning with the United States on certain diplomatic and security issues while seeking to deepen economic and trade cooperation with China.
面对自主性发展受阻以及大国博弈中“选边站”压力增加,拉美国家倾向于更为谨慎地处理对外关系,即便右翼执政的国家也不例外。一些在经济上高度依赖美国的国家希望最大限度利用美国推动的“近岸外包”,扩大本土生产,增加对美出口,同时兼顾中国等重要市场。南美一些国家因与中国经贸联系更为紧密,普遍采取平衡外交,在部分外交和安全议题上追随美国,经贸上试图深化与中国的合作。
The New Right has been able to come to power in many Latin American countries largely because of its inflammatory policy slogans, targeted voter-mobilization strategies, and external assistance from the United States. However, it lacks a solid governing foundation. If it cannot fulfill its election promises, voter discontent will inevitably deepen, the political pendulum will quickly swing from right to left, and another change of governing party will occur. Overall, the New Right in Latin America faces multiple challenges. First, its foundation of public support is unstable. The New Right’s supporters usually form a highly heterogeneous and loose coalition comprising “conservative religious groups, economic elites, and lower- and middle-class voters.” Economic elites value market-oriented reforms, while lower- and middle-class voters desire improvements in their quality of life and welfare benefits. These groups have differing demands, making it difficult to forge a political consensus or stable coalition. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s excessive pursuit of privatization during the latter part of his presidency resulted in the loss of some evangelical voters, highlighting the fragility of the governing coalition. Some elements of the New Right’s reform agenda are contradictory. Strengthening public security governance requires increasing the number of police officers, while building more prisons requires greater fiscal expenditure, both of which conflict with the objective of fiscal austerity. Second, radical short-term policies pose a series of risks. Driven by its positions and interests, the New Right is bound to create opportunities for financial capital groups to reap enormous profits through policies such as liberalization, privatization, deregulation, and tax cuts. These policies are not only unlikely to fundamentally resolve structural problems such as inequality and vulnerability confronting Latin America’s economic and social development, but may also, because of excessive dependence on foreign capital and external assistance, weaken countries’ capacity to withstand risks and even trigger debt and financial crises.17 The New Right aggressively plays up “culture wars.” Although this can mobilize conservative voters in the short term, it also intensifies social divisions and creates latent dangers of political and social unrest. Under El Salvador’s “state of exception” for combating criminals, the police have expanded their law-enforcement powers, while Argentina’s Milei administration has attempted to restrict the powers of the Supreme Court. These legal issues and conflicts could become triggers for crises in New Right governance. Third, it will be difficult for the New Right to govern stably over the long term. The New Right has not proposed a systematic governance strategy for long-term national development and also lacks a foundation for remaining in power over the long term. The UK publication The Economist has observed that the New Right’s governance logic of “emphasizing short-term results while neglecting long-term planning” will have difficulty resolving Latin America’s deep-seated structural contradictions. It is widely believed that the New Right will have difficulty remaining in power over the long term and that the swing of Latin America’s political pendulum and alternation between the left and right are likely to continue. How to achieve tangible results in the short term, how to maintain a balance between reform and stability, and how to unite different political forces to reach a consensus on national development will be key questions and urgent tasks generally faced by New Right governments.
新右翼之所以能在拉美多国执政,很大程度上得益于其富有煽动性的政策口号、具有目的性的选民动员策略以及美国的外部助力,但其缺乏坚实的执政基础,若无法兑现选举承诺,必将导致选民不满情绪加深,政治钟摆将很快由右向左,再次出现政党轮替。总体来看,拉美新右翼面临多重挑战。一是民意基础不牢。新右翼的支持群体通常是由“保守宗教团体、经济精英与中下层选民”组成的高度异质性的松散联盟,经济精英看重市场化改革,而中下层选民渴望改善生活质量、提升福利待遇,各方诉求存在差异,难以形成政治共识与稳定联盟。巴西前总统博索纳罗因在执政后期过度推行私有化,导致部分福音派选民流失,凸显了执政联盟的脆弱性。新右翼的一些改革议程存在矛盾,如加强安全治理需增加警务人员,修建更多监狱需增加财政支出,这与财政紧缩目标相抵触。二是短期激进政策带来系列风险。由于立场和利益的驱使,新右翼势必通过自由化、私有化、放松管制、减税等政策为金融资本集团提供获取巨额利润的机会。这些政策不仅难以从根本上解决拉美经济社会发展面临的不平等和脆弱性等结构性问题,还可能因为过度依赖外资与外部援助,导致抗风险能力下降,甚至引发债务和金融危机。新右翼大力炒作“文化战争”,虽在短期内动员起保守派选民,但同时加剧社会撕裂,埋下政治和社会动荡的隐患。萨尔瓦多警方在打击犯罪分子的“战时状态”下扩大执法权力,阿根廷米莱政府试图限制最高法院权力,这些法律问题和冲突都可能成为引发新右翼执政危机的导火索。三是难以长期稳定执政。新右翼并没有就国家长期发展提出系统性的治国方略,又缺少长期执政的基础。英国《经济学人》评论指出,新右翼“重短期成效、轻长期规划”的治理逻辑,难以解决拉美深层次的结构性矛盾。外界普遍认为,新右翼难以实现长期执政,拉美的政治钟摆与左右轮替或将持续上演。如何在短期内取得切实成就、如何在改革和稳定之间保持平衡、如何团结各派力量达成国家发展共识,将是新右翼政府普遍面临的关键问题和紧迫任务。