Translation Tag: asia-pacific
The CCP Politburo holds “collective study sessions” on a semi-regular basis, in which an outside academic or government expert leads a discussion on a selected topic. Such sessions are important signals as to what issues the senior leadership finds important. The 16th collective study session of the 20th Central Committee Politburo was held on July 31, 2024 and was presided over by Xi Jinping. At this session, Xi delivered a speech emphasizing the need to improve, strengthen and modernize the sea, air, and border defense systems to achieve China’s modernization and ensure overall national security.
Zhang Jie, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes growing coordination among the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. Zhang frames this trilateral coordination as evidence that Washington is aiming to expand its economic and security influence in the region. In response, Zhang recommends Beijing strengthen diplomatic and economic engagement with its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific, focusing in particular on small and medium-sized states.
Li Min, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, provides an overview of Russia’s shifting relations with North and South Korea, pointing to increasingly close ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. Conversely, Li suggests, Russia’s previously strong relations with South Korea have deteriorated since its invasion of Ukraine and Seoul’s support for Kyiv. Despite these trends, in Li’s analysis it is unlikely that Russia will completely abandon its relationship with South Korea, just as its burgeoning trade partnership with North Korea has its limits.
This piece from the U.S. studies program at Ministry of State Security-linked think tank China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations argues that the Ukraine war heralds the end of the post-Cold War order. The article argues the United States has been the biggest beneficiary of the war so far, leveraging the crisis to strengthen its alliance network and fight a proxy war with Russia. The authors of the report warn countries in Asia to remain vigilant to what they describe as U.S. efforts to preserve and expand its hegemony in ways that might destabilize the region.
Wang Shushen, an expert in U.S.-Taiwan relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argues that shifts in the level and nature of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that began under the Trump administration are forcing Beijing to deploy its own set of deterrence measures. These dynamics, Wang argues, will make it difficult to prevent and control a crisis in and around the Taiwan Strait in the future.
In this 2016 analysis, Zhang Wenzong, an expert at a state security-backed think tank, argues that Beijing must bolster its ability to withstand and counter U.S. deterrence strategy by strengthening its own economic and military resilience, overseas strategic partnerships, and domestic stability.
In this 2012 article, senior military scholar Ni Lexiong analyzes the historical course of China’s military modernization efforts, and argues that Beijing should invest in a strong blue-water navy to secure its expanding overseas economic interests and deter the formation of a U.S.-led maritime alliance designed to contain China. Ni also cautions that China should approach this process carefully, in order to avoid triggering security concerns among its maritime neighbors that could provoke to a regional arms race.
Wen Tianpeng and Chen Xing, Taiwan scholars at Nanjing University and Beijing Union University, respectively, explore the motivations behind what they perceive as a reorientation of Japan’s strategy vis-à-vis Taiwan and implications for Japan-China relations going forward. In their view, the dynamics of U.S.-Japan-China ties are driving Tokyo to depart from its traditionally “low profile” position on Taiwan. However, Wen and Chen argue that Japan’s strong economic ties to China will ultimately prevent it from revising its official “One China” policy.
Xiu Chunping, a Taiwan scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argues that China-Japan relations will deteriorate in the foreseeable future as a result of Tokyo’s growing interest in regional security, particularly in and around the Taiwan Strait. She argues that Japan is increasingly willing to provide greater and more explicit economic, diplomatic, and military support for Taiwan, and draws on a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, and domestic political factors to explain this perceived shift – including Japan’s colonial legacy in Taiwan, power shifts between Japan and China, and the work of “Taiwan independence forces.”
Cai Liang, a researcher focused on regional issues in Asia at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, argues that Japan is no longer maintaining purely unofficial relations with Taiwan that center around trade, investment, and cultural exchange. This is evident, Cai holds, in what he sees as Tokyo’s efforts to internationalize discussion of Taiwan and emphasize shared values. Cai attributes this perceived change largely to the dynamics of rising strategic competition between the United States and China.