On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a lightning strike against Venezuela and forcibly abducted President Maduro and his wife, shocking the international community. How the U.S. military was able to achieve its operational objectives so quickly, what lessons should be drawn from Venezuela’s defensive failure, and what international repercussions this operation may have are all questions that merit in-depth analysis.
2026年1月3日,美对委内瑞拉发动闪电袭击,强掳马杜罗总统及夫人,震惊国际社会。美军为何能够在短时间内顺利实现行动目标,委内瑞拉防御失利有何需要检讨之处,以及此次行动的后续国际影响,这些都值得深入分析。
I. Main Characteristics of U.S. Military Tactics
一、美军战法主要特点
Since August 2025, the United States spent more than four months preparing for this lightning strike, and its military operation exhibited four main characteristics.
自2025年8月以来,美国使用4个多月时间完成了实施此次闪电袭击的准备,其军事行动呈现四大特点。
First, an integrated “four-in-one” hybrid warfare approach created an overwhelming advantage. The first component was economic warfare. Building on years of sanctions, the United States incrementally imposed blockades on Venezuela’s coastline and airspace, restricting the movement of people and trade. It intercepted oil tankers to prevent Venezuelan oil exports, attempting to cut off the country’s primary source of revenue and worsen its economic conditions, thereby forcing Maduro from power. The second component was cognitive warfare. Under the pretext of counter-narcotics and counterterrorism, the United States pursued regime change in substance by designating Venezuela’s “Tren de Aragua” and the “Cartel de los Soles” as foreign terrorist organizations, and by portraying Maduro as the leader of a “narco-terrorist organization.” Domestically, this approach circumvented legal constraints on the president’s authority to initiate war. Externally, it stigmatized Maduro by repeatedly emphasizing that the operation was conducted at the request of the U.S. Department of Justice, thereby packaging a military operation as a “law enforcement” action. The third component was deterrence warfare. The U.S. military successively deployed 15,000 troops to the Caribbean, along with advanced weapons and equipment such as the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and F-35 fighter jets. It conducted joint exercises with countries including Trinidad and Tobago and the Dominican Republic, reactivated multiple military bases in Latin America, attacked several so-called “drug trafficking vessels,” and extrajudicially executed more than 100 individuals. On December 4, the United States released a new National Security Strategy, elevating the Western Hemisphere to its top priority region. The following day, it announced the establishment of a U.S. Army Western Hemisphere Command to further improve its military command structure. The fourth component was a blitz-style operation. Late at night during Venezuela’s Christmas holiday, the U.S. military launched more than 150 sorties from 20 bases across the Western Hemisphere to carry out airstrikes. It simultaneously struck multiple targets, including the Fort Tiuna military base in Caracas, the Maracaibo military base, and airports in La Guaira and Miranda states, in order to confuse and disperse Venezuelan forces. It then deployed Delta Force special operations units deep into the interior, abducting Maduro and his wife in just three hours.
第一,“四战合一”的混合战法形成压倒性优势。其一是经济战。在前期长达数年的制裁基础上,美分步封锁委内瑞拉海岸线和领空,限制人员、贸易往来;拦截油轮阻止委内瑞拉石油出口,试图切断其主要经济来源,恶化其经济状况,以此逼马杜罗下台。其二是认知战。借反毒反恐名义行颠覆政权之实,将委内瑞拉的“阿拉瓜火车”“太阳集团”列为外国恐怖组织,再将马杜罗塑造成“毒品恐怖组织”头领。对内规避法律对总统开战权的束缚,对外污名化马杜罗,反复强调此次行动系应美国司法部要求进行,将军事作战行动包装为“执法”行动。其三是威慑战。美军陆续在加勒比海部署1.5万兵力和“福特”号航母、F-35战机等先进武器装备,与特立尼达和多巴哥、多米尼加等国举行联合演习,重启多个在拉美军事基地,攻击数艘所谓的“贩毒船只”,法外处决100余人。12月4日,美出台新版《国家安全战略》,将西半球优先级提至首要地区,次日即宣布组建陆军西半球司令部,完善军事指挥体系。其四是闪击战。美军在委内瑞拉圣诞节假期的深夜从西半球20个基地起飞超150架次飞机发动空袭行动,同时打击加拉加斯蒂乌纳堡军事基地等多个点位,以及马拉开波军事基地、北部拉瓜伊拉州、米兰达州等机场,迷惑和分散委内瑞拉注意力,尔后再派遣“三角洲”特种部队深入腹地,仅用3小时就掳走马杜罗夫妇。
Second, well-coordinated operational sequencing produced a textbook example of a “decapitation” strike. This operation represented a complete execution of the U.S. military’s operational chain of “precision intelligence + electronic suppression + precision strike + multi-axis insertion.” In terms of intelligence gathering, the United States employed a combination of satellites, cyber capabilities, UAVs, and human intelligence to conduct months-long intelligence collection against Venezuela. It penetrated Maduro’s inner circle, developed a detailed understanding of conditions at Fort Tiuna where he resided, and analyzed his daily routines. It even replicated his safe house at a 1:1 scale based on satellite imagery and intelligence data, repeatedly rehearsing forced-entry capture operations to provide precise intelligence support for the mission. In terms of electronic suppression, similar to its previous airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, the U.S. military employed “penetrating air superiority operations.” However, in this case, it first used electronic warfare aircraft and cyberattacks to paralyze Caracas’s power grid and civilian communications systems. At the same time, multiple types of fighter aircrafts, including F-22s and F-35s, along with B-1 bombers, suppressed Venezuela’s air defense network from high altitude, providing cover for low-altitude helicopter penetration. In terms of precision strikes, after suppressing Venezuela’s air defense network, the U.S. military carried out precision strikes against key facilities at multiple locations, including the air force base where the minister of defense was located, the national legislature building, and radar stations—more than 10 targets in total. These strikes further degraded the air defense command system, disrupted Venezuela’s counterattack operations and military deployment, and enabled mission-critical units to approach and breach Maduro’s residence. In terms of multi-axis insertion, the U.S. military chose to act at night during the Christmas holiday, when Venezuelan forces were fewer in number and relatively less vigilant. It used technical means to disable lighting in the target area and, under cover of darkness, rapidly inserted Delta Force special operations personnel using multiple types of armed helicopters, tilt-rotor aircraft, and transport helicopters, overcoming Venezuelan resistance with overwhelming firepower. U.S. forces then withdrew rapidly, taking only about 16 hours to bring Maduro back to the United States.
第二,衔接有序的作战行动打出“斩首”典型战例。此次行动是美军“精准情报+电子压制+精确打击+立体投送”作战链条的完整呈现。在情报获取方面,美综合利用卫星、网络、无人机、人力等手段对委内瑞拉开展长达数月的情报搜集行动,渗透进马杜罗核心圈层,细致掌握其居住的蒂乌纳堡情况,分析其生活模式,甚至根据卫星图像和情报信息,按1:1比例复刻其安全屋并反复演练破门抓捕,为行动提供精准情报支撑。在电子压制方面,与此前在伊朗实施的空袭核设施行动一样,美军采用了“穿透性制空作战”,但不同的是,此次美军首先使用电子战飞机和网络攻击,瘫痪加拉加斯的电网和民用通信系统。同时,F-22、F-35等多型战斗机和B-1轰炸机在高空压制委内瑞拉防空网,掩护直升机低空突防。在精确打击方面,在委内瑞拉防空网被压制后,美军对委多个点位关键设施实施精确打击,包括国防部长所在的空军基地、国会大厦、雷达站等十余个点位,进一步摧毁防空指挥体系,扰乱委反击行动与军事部署,策应关键任务部队抵近突破马杜罗住所。在立体投送方面,美军选择在圣诞假期夜晚委军兵力较少,且相对懈怠的时机,通过技术手段破坏任务区照明设施,在夜色掩护下使用多型武装直升机、旋翼机和运输直升机快速投送“三角洲”特种作战部队成员,并以绝对火力优势突破委军抵抗。随后快速撤离,用时仅约16小时就将马杜罗带回美国。
Third, the systematic employment of weapons and equipment enabled the achievement of “zero casualties.” In this operation, the U.S. military mobilized multiple types of platforms and achieved precise coordination, laying the foundation for a “zero-casualty” outcome. During the electronic suppression phase, EA-18G Growler and EC-130H Compass Call electronic warfare aircrafts, which had been pre-deployed to a naval base in Puerto Rico, were the first to act, forming the main force for suppression. They disrupted Venezuelan command, communications, and navigation systems. Together, they constituted an electronic suppression system which, in coordination with real-time guidance from E-3 airborne early warning aircraft, rendered Venezuelan radar and communications ineffective. During the precision strike phase, MQ-9A Reaper UAVs, along with missiles launched from naval vessels and F-35 fighter aircrafts, destroyed multiple Venezuelan radar stations, command centers, and military bases within just one hour. MH-47 Chinook and MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters flew at low altitude, exploiting blind spots in the S-300VM detection system to enter Venezuelan airspace and strike Maduro’s location. According to eyewitness reports reposted by White House press secretary Leavitt on the X platform, as well as accounts from wounded Venezuelan soldiers, the U.S. military may also have employed directed-energy weapons during the attack on Maduro’s safe house, rendering Venezuelan troops incapable of action.1 During the multi-axis insertion phase, CH-47 Chinook helicopters launched from the USS Iwo Jima amphibious assault ship carried special operations forces and equipment for large-scale insertion, while AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, armed with Hellfire missiles and rockets, provided continuous fire support throughout the operation. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that only one helicopter was hit,2 but it was not shot down. Only a few U.S. soldiers were wounded during the entire operation.
第三,体系化应用的武器装备助力达成“零阵亡”战果。此次行动美军动员多型装备,达成精准协同,为行动“零阵亡”奠定了基础。在电子压制阶段,提前部署到波多黎各海军基地的EA-18G“咆哮者”和EC-130H“罗盘呼叫”电子战飞机率先出动,构成压制主力,干扰委方指挥通信和导航系统,二者共同构成电子压制体系,配合E3预警机的实时引导,造成委军雷达和通信失灵。在精确打击阶段,MQ-9A“死神”等无人机,海上舰艇、F-35战斗机等武器平台发射导弹,仅1小时摧毁多处委军雷达站、指挥中心和军事基地。MH-47“支努干”、MH-60“黑鹰”直升机低空飞行,利用S-300VM探测盲区进入委内瑞拉,对马杜罗所在地发起打击。根据白宫新闻发言人莱维特在X平台转发目击者报告和委受伤军人回忆,美军在攻击马杜罗安全屋时还可能使用了定向能武器,导致委士兵丧失了行动能力。a在立体投送阶段,从“硫磺岛”号两栖舰起飞的CH-47“支奴干”直升机搭载特种部队与装备实施规模化投送,AH-64“阿帕奇”武装直升机挂载地狱火导弹和火箭弹提供全程火力掩护。美参联会主席表示,仅有一架直升机被打中,但未被击落。整个行动中只有几名美军士兵受伤。
Fourth, long-term infiltration efforts played a decisive role in securing victory. First, long-term planning and sustained advancement. The United States has long pursued infiltration into Venezuela through a dual-track strategy of “economic inducements + sanctions-based deterrence.” In April 2002, more than 10 senior Venezuelan military officers, who had been incited and supported by the United States, declared their opposition to the government and detained President Chávez. During the 2019 crisis triggered by opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s self-declaration as “interim president,” the United States successfully turned a number of Venezuelan military officers, including Colonel José Luis, then the defense attaché at the Venezuelan embassy in the United States.3 Second, high-value inducements and direct penetration. Since 2024, the United States has intensified “close-in infiltration” targeting Maduro’s inner circle. According to the Associated Press, in 2024, agents from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security attempted to recruit Villegas, the chief pilot of the Venezuelan presidential aircraft, but were unsuccessful.4 In August 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice announced an increase in the reward for capturing Maduro from $25 million to $50 million, raising the level of inducement. On January 3, 2026, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane revealed that a CIA infiltration team, through informants, had obtained detailed information on Maduro’s “movements, place of residence, travel routes, dietary habits, and manner of dress,” and even information about his “pets.” Third, deliberate creation of deception and careful operational cover. The United States intentionally disclosed in advance—and selectively amplified—the refusal of Villegas to betray Maduro, creating the illusion that efforts to turn individuals close to Maduro had failed. This misled Venezuelan judgment, dulled its security vigilance, and provided cover for the activities of insider assets. According to Spain’s El País, interim President Rodríguez has ordered the arrest of General Marcano Tabata, former commander of the presidential guard and head of military counterintelligence.
第四,经年累月的渗透工作发挥制胜关键作用。一是长线布局、持久推进。美国以“经济利诱+制裁威慑”双线施压策略对委渗透由来已久。2002年4月,10多名受到美国煽动和支持的委高级军官声明不支持政府,并将查韦斯总统扣押。2019年委反对派领导人瓜伊多“自封总统”制造危机时,美方就成功策反多名委军官,包括时任委驻美使馆武官何塞·路易斯上校。二是重金策反、一线勾连。2024年以来,美国加大对马杜罗核心圈层实施“贴身渗透”。据美联社报道,2024年美国国土安全部特工曾试图策反委总统专机首席飞行员维列加斯,遭到拒绝。2025年8月,美国司法部宣布将缉拿马杜罗的悬赏金额从2500万美元提升至5000万美元,加大诱惑力度。美军参联会主席丹·凯恩2026年1月3日透漏,美中情局渗透小组通过线人掌握了马杜罗的“行踪、居住地、出行路线、饮食习惯、穿着打扮”,甚至还有“宠物情况”。三是释放迷雾、精心掩护。美故意提前公开并适度炒作维列加斯拒绝出卖马杜罗的情况,制造“策反马杜罗身边人失败”假象,干扰委方判断,麻痹委安防神经,掩护其“内鬼”活动。据西班牙《国家报》报道,临时总统罗德里格斯已下令逮捕了原总统卫队司令、军事反情报局长马尔卡诺·塔巴塔将军。
II. Reflections on Venezuela’s Failed Defense Against the Intrusion
二、对委内瑞拉反入侵失利的复盘反思
The vast disparity in military strength between the United States and Venezuela makes Venezuela’s defeat unsurprising. However, the speed and ease with which the U.S. military achieved its objectives are nonetheless striking and warrant careful reflection.
美委之间军事实力相差悬殊,委失利不足为奇,但美军得手如此之顺、如此之快,还是让人大为震惊,值得反思。
First, failures in intelligence and counterintelligence led to the loss of the initiative in responding to the invasion. From both internal and external perspectives, Venezuela’s intelligence and counterintelligence efforts exhibited major deficiencies. Internally, despite explicit indications that the United States had deployed CIA teams to operate within Venezuela, Venezuelan counterintelligence agencies failed to effectively screen and purge relevant personnel, allowing insider assets to continuously provide precise information to opposing forces. Externally, despite months of planning by the U.S. military and coordination across multiple locations and agencies, Venezuelan intelligence failed to detect the operation at all and was unable to issue timely warnings.
一是情报和反情报工作失利,丧失应对入侵先机。从内外两个维度看,委情报和反情报工作均存在重大纰漏。从内部看,在美方明确表示派中情局工作组潜入委境内开展工作的情况下,委反情报部门未能对相关人员展开有效甄别和肃反,导致“内鬼”为敌军不间断提供精准信息。从外部看,面对美军筹划数月、多地和多部门协同的作战行动,委情报力量却丝毫没有察觉,更未能及时发出预警。
Second, lax preparedness created an opportunity for U.S. forces to exploit vulnerabilities. In an interview, the Russian ambassador to Venezuela noted that the U.S. operation coincided with a holiday period in Venezuela, during which Venezuelan forces were on staggered rotation. Reduced personnel availability further widened the already significant gap in military strength, reflecting insufficient overall preparedness and a lack of urgency and vigilance in the face of a looming threat. After the strike began, the rapid response and adaptive capabilities of the leadership, command structure, operational units, and frontline forces were all found wanting.
二是战备思想松懈,为美军乘虚而入提供机会。俄罗斯驻委大使接受采访时提到,美军行动正值委假期,委军进行了分批轮休,在位率不足使原本就悬殊的军事实力差距被进一步放大,反映出委军整体备战思想不够充分,缺乏大兵压境的紧迫感和警觉性。遭到突击后,从领导层、指挥层到作战单元、一线部队的快速反应、灵活应对能力均差强人意。
Third, the complexity and fragmentation of the weapons system structure significantly constrained the effectiveness of counter-invasion operations. According to media reports, Venezuela’s air defense system included a mix of Russian-made S-300VM missile defense systems, anti-stealth radar systems from other countries, and Iranian UAVs, among other platforms. However, compatibility issues among these systems resulted in an ineffective “target detection–target tracking–precision engagement” chain, reducing the efficiency of air defense interception.
三是武器系统谱系庞杂,极大限制反入侵行动效果。据媒体报道,委军防空系统中同时存在俄制S-300VM反导系统、其他国家的反隐身雷达、伊朗的无人机等多种型号装备。但各型装备存在兼容问题,导致“目标发现—目标锁定—精准打击”链路不畅,影响防空拦截效率。
III. Consequences of the U.S. Military Operation
三、美军行动的后果
Although the United States achieved a tactical victory, it committed a series of strategic errors.
美国虽然取得取得了战术上的胜利,却犯下了一系列战略性错误。
First, it undermined the international order and international rules. The U.S. military strike against Venezuela constitutes a blatant violation of the international rules-based system centered on the Charter of the United Nations, delivering a systemic shock to the international order. Without authorization from the United Nations Security Council, the United States invaded the territory of a sovereign state, forcibly detained Venezuelan President Maduro, and transferred him abroad for trial in U.S. courts. This seriously violates fundamental principles of international law, including the equality of sovereign states, non-interference in internal affairs, and the prohibition on the use of force. It also represents a grave infringement of the immunity of a sitting head of state. Particularly alarming is that, following the operation, Trump openly stated that “I do not need international law,” asserting that the only constraints on his power are his “personal moral standards and will.” This hegemonic logic—placing national power above legal norms—fully exposes the dangerous tendency toward “might makes right.” It not only undermines the foundations of the postwar international order, subjecting all states to dual uncertainties in law and security, but also opens a Pandora’s box for the return of the “law of the jungle,” sowing the seeds of global instability. It drew widespread condemnation and strong opposition from the international community.
首先,破坏国际秩序和国际规则。美国对委内瑞拉的军事打击行动是对以《联合国宪章》为核心的国际规则体系的公然践踏,给国际秩序带来系统性冲击。美方未经联合国安理授权,擅自入侵主权国家领土,强行控制委总统马杜罗并移送出境接受美国法院审判,严重违反国家主权平等、不干涉内政、禁止使用武力等国际法基本原则,更是对他国现任国家元首豁免权的粗暴侵犯。尤为值得警惕的是,特朗普在行动后直言“我不需要国际法”,宣称限制其权力的只有“个人的道德准则和意志”。这种将国家实力凌驾于法律规则之上的霸权逻辑,彻底暴露了“强权即公理”的危险倾向,不仅动摇了战后国际秩序的根基,让所有国家面临法律与安全的双重不确定性,更打开了“丛林法则”回归的潘多拉魔盒,为全球动荡埋下隐患,遭到国际社会广泛谴责与强烈反对。
Second, it will affect the trajectory of the geopolitical landscape in the Western Hemisphere. The United States’ approach of attacking the left while courting the right will have a profound impact on the region’s geopolitical configuration. Venezuela is the strongest member of the “anti-U.S. iron triangle” in Latin America. Once it is struck, a “domino effect” is likely to extend to Cuba and Nicaragua. The incident also places unprecedented pressure on left-leaning governments in countries such as Brazil and Colombia, which are scheduled to hold elections in 2026. Its “chilling effect” will spread to other countries, forcing some to choose sides and prioritize “security” over “development” and align more closely with the United States. Of course, history has repeatedly shown that in the face of U.S.-style hegemony, anti-U.S. sentiment in the region will inevitably accumulate and, once reaching a certain threshold, will erupt forcefully.
其次,影响西半球地缘战略格局走向。美国“打左拉右”的行为会深刻影响地区地缘战略格局走向。委内瑞拉是拉美“反美铁三角”中实力最强的一角,遭到打击后,“多米诺骨牌”效应将波及古巴、尼加拉瓜两国。事件对2026年将进行选举的巴西、哥伦比亚等左翼执政国家造成空前压力。其“寒蝉效应”将扩散至其他国家,部分国家将被迫选边站队,在“安全”与“发展”诉求中选择前者,向美靠拢。当然历史多次证明,在美式霸权面前,地区反美情绪必然会累积性上涨,达到某种程度后也必然会强烈爆发。
Third, this action will undermine global and regional peace and stability. Within one year of Trump’s second term, the United States has already launched military strikes against seven countries, including Venezuela, and ordered more than 626 airstrikes against other countries,5 while also issuing threats of military action against Greenland and Iran. While requiring NATO allies to raise defense spending as a share of GDP from 2 percent to 5 percent, Trump has also proposed increasing the United States’ 2027 defense budget to $1.5 trillion. These developments indicate a resurgence of traditional security concerns, and that the use of force, the threat of force, and interference in other countries’ affairs may become a preferred option for the current U.S. administration. This new trend will seriously threaten world peace and regional security and deserves close attention from the international community.
再次,冲击世界与地区和平稳定。特朗普第二次执政一年内已经对委内瑞拉等7个国家发动了军事打击,下令对其他国家发起空袭超过626次,a当前又对格陵兰岛、伊朗发出动武警告。特朗普一边要求北约盟友将军费占GDP比重从2%提高到5%,一边提议将本国2027年国防预算飙升至1.5万亿美元。种种迹象表明,传统安全议题出现升温势头,动用武力或以武力威胁、干涉他国的做法可能会成为本届美国政府的偏好性选项。这种新动向将严重威胁世界和平与地区安全,值得国际社会高度关注。