俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全与新时期中国粮食安全政策选择
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Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China’s Food Security Policy Options in the New Era

俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全与新时期中国粮食安全政策选择

Experts from China Agricultural University argue the war in Ukraine will have long-term impacts on food supply chains and the global economy, causing many states to improve agricultural self-sufficiency, hoard supplies, and restrict exports. In this environment, the scholars suggest Beijing reduce its vulnerability to Western sanctions and enhance its influence over international food supply chains by encouraging Chinese agricultural conglomerates to develop a larger international presence and by better regulating and supporting agricultural production and innovation at home.


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 1  Introduction

1 引言

“The people are the foundation of the country, and food is the primary need of the people” (民为国基,谷为民命). Food security is the “ballast” of the national economy. At the 2022 Central Rural Work Conference, General Secretary Xi Jinping said that “ensuring a stable and secure supply of food and important agricultural products has always been the top priority in building a strong agricultural country.” Since the 18th Party Congress, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as its core, basing itself on the new situation at home and abroad, has proposed a national food security strategy of “putting China’s need first, focusing on the domestic conditions, ensuring production capacity, maintaining moderate imports, and leveraging scientific and technological support”. The No. 1 central documents and government work reports have also repeatedly discussed food issues, including food production, structural adjustments, seed industry science and technology (S&T), and policy support, pointing out the direction for anchoring the goal of building a strong agricultural country and ensuring food security.

“民为国基,谷为民命”,粮食安全是国民经济的“压舱石”。习近平总书记在2022年中央农村工作会议所说“保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给始终是建设农业强国的头等大事”。党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为核心的党中央立足国内外新形势,提出了“以我为主、立足国内、确保产能、适度进口、科技支撑”的国家粮食安全战略,中央一号文件和政府工作报告也多次谈到粮食问题,包括粮食生产、结构调整、种业科技、政策保障等,为锚定建设农业强国目标,保障粮食安全指明了方向。

Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic recovery is fragile to external risks, the challenges of climate change are pronounced, and the tasks of economic and social development are extremely onerous and arduous. Since its outbreak in February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved into a major geopolitical game with global consequences. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a major impact on the global supply chains for petroleum energy, fertilizer, and other raw materials, as well as grain, causing commodity prices to soar. In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a negative impact on China’s trade of agricultural products and China’s grain supply and prices, but the overall impact is controllable. What deserves vigilance is the long-term impact of the uncertainty and systemic risks brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on food security. In one respect, grain production is a cyclical work and there is a certain lag between supply and demand changes and price fluctuations. Instability in fertilizers, energy, germplasm resources, logistics and transportation, and other areas are showing impacts through supply chains and international markets, and their impact on the domestic grain market may undergo a cumulative and amplifying process, easily giving rise to systemic risks. In another respect, as a global geopolitical conflict, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the international agricultural trade landscape and have a significant and far-reaching impact on the reconstruction of the global value chain. Due to differences in agricultural resource distributions and economic conditions, some African countries that experience resource shortages will face severe food crises. The uncertainty caused by geopolitical conflicts can easily lead to policy failures and market failures, thereby triggering systemic risks in the global grain market.

受疫情影响,世界经济复苏脆弱,气候变化挑战突出,经济社会发展各项任务极为繁重艰巨。自2022年2月爆发以来,俄乌冲突已经演变成一场重大的世界地缘政治博弈。俄乌冲突对世界石油能源、化肥等原材料以及粮食供应链产生重大冲击,导致大宗商品价格飙升。俄乌冲突在短期内对中国农产品贸易、粮食供给和价格产生一定的消极影响,但总体影响可控。值得警惕的是,俄乌冲突带来的不确定性和系统风险对粮食安全的长期影响。一方面,粮食生产具有周期性,供需影响和价格传递具有滞后性,化肥、能源、种质资源、物流运输等波动通过供应链和国际市场传递,对国内粮食市场的影响存在累积和放大效应,容易引发系统性风险。另一方面,俄乌冲突作为一场世界地缘政治冲突,将会重塑国际农产品贸易格局,对全球价值链重构产生重大而深远的影响。由于农业资源分布和经济条件差异,非洲部分资源落后国家将面临严重的粮食危机。地缘冲突带来的不确定性容易导致政策失效与市场失灵,从而引发全球粮食市场的系统性风险。

As a country with a large population, China’s agricultural resources are relatively limited. How to use scarce land resources to properly solve the food security problem to facilitate China’s growth in the new era is a decisive matter for national stability and sustainable development. To ensure food security, we must properly ensure the overall coordination of internal and external relations. We must not only base ourselves on the domestic situation, ensure the stable growth of grain output, and stabilize the import and export channels of fertilizer, energy, germplasm resources, and other agricultural products, but also secure various emergency plans, and prevent and resolve risks and threats to domestic food security caused by changes in the international environment, international trade rules, and other aspects of the external environment. It is extremely urgent and important to analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China’s trade in agricultural products and food security in terms of its long-term and systemic risks. Based on the new situation of the global food security crisis in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this article focuses on analyzing the long-term impact of the conflict on China’s food security and the systemic risks it may bring about, and provides policy suggestions for preventing domestic agricultural product market risks, improving the resilience of the grain industrial chain and supply chain, and building a more resilient national food security reserve system.

作为世界人口大国,中国的农业资源相对有限。在新的发展形势下如何利用稀缺的土地资源妥善解决好粮食安全问题,关乎国家安定和可持续发展。确保粮食安全,需要统筹协调好内部与外部的关系,既要立足国内,保障粮食生产稳定增长,稳定化肥能源、种质资源和其他农产品的进出口渠道,又要做好各种应急备案,防范化解国际环境、国际贸易规则等外部环境变化对国内粮食安全带来的风险和威胁。从长期和系统风险的视角分析俄乌冲突对中国农产品贸易和粮食安全的影响极为迫切和重要。本文基于俄乌冲突之下全球粮食安全危机的新局势,重点分析冲突对中国粮食安全产生的长期影响以及可能带来的系统性风险,为防范国内农产品市场风险,提升粮食产业链、供应链韧性,构建更加完备的国家粮食安全储备系统提供政策建议。

The contributions of this article are mainly reflected in the following three areas: First, this article distinguishes the short-term and long-term impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security and systematically summarizes the uncertainties and new changes in the global food security landscape in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, providing a decision-making reference to help China deal with the possibility of systemic risks in terms of global food security. Second, this article analyzes the long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China’s food security from the perspective of the global grain supply chain, providing a theoretical basis to help China build an all-round, multi-level national food security reserve system and formulate medium- and long-term food security plans. Third, based on the current complex international geopolitical situation and the new stage of domestic economic development, this article puts forward important policy suggestions for improving national food security.

本文的贡献主要体现在以下三个方面:一是本文区分了俄乌冲突对全球粮食安全的短期和长期影响,并系统总结了俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全的不确定性和新变局,为中国应对全球粮食安全可能存在的系统性风险提供决策参考。二是本文从全球粮食供应链视角分析俄乌冲突对中国粮食安全产生的长期影响,为中国构建全方位、多层次的国家粮食安全储备系统,制定中长期粮食安全规划提供理论依据。三是基于当前复杂的国际地缘政治形势和国内经济发展新阶段,本文提出了提高国家粮食安全的重要政策建议。

This article is structured as follows: The first and second parts will provide an introduction and literature review. The third part will analyze the short-term and long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global grain market and summarize the uncertainties and new changes in the global food security landscape in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The fourth part will analyze the long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China’s grain market and the ensuing difficulties in China’s food security. The fifth part will offer ideas and suggested countermeasures to improve China’s food security.

本文结构安排如下:第一、第二部分为引言和文献回顾,第三部分分析了俄乌冲突对全球粮食市场产生的短期和长期影响,总结了俄乌冲突之下全球粮食安全的不确定性和新变局,第四部分分析了俄乌冲突对中国粮食市场的长期影响和中国粮食安全面临的困境,第五部分为提高中国粮食安全的思考和对策建议。

2 Literature Review

2 文献回顾

The continued Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the global food security crisis. Relevant research has focused on the impact and influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on food security and the governance options for food security issues in this context.

俄乌冲突持续蔓延加剧了全球性的粮食安全危机,相关研究重点关注了俄乌冲突对粮食安全的冲击和影响以及俄乌冲突下粮食安全问题的治理路径。

2.1  The Shock and Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Food Security

2.1 俄乌冲突对粮食安全的冲击和影响

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered security crises at multiple levels, covering energy, finance, and food, among which its impact on food security has been the most prominent.1 Looking at Russia and Ukraine, Russia has long occupied an important position in the global grain supply market, energy supply market, and supply market for fertilizers and other agricultural materials, based on its advantages in resources such as land, energy, and minerals. In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has tightened its exports of grain, energy, and fertilizers. To a certain extent, this has aggravated the supply and demand imbalance in markets such as grain, energy, and fertilizers, pushed up global market prices of grain and related products, and directly or indirectly increased uncertainty risks in the global grain market.2 Russia relies on its control of key strategic resources such as grain and energy to take countermeasures against Western anti-Russian forces, further provoking global food security concerns.3 As for Ukraine, as the conflict is mainly concentrated within its own territory, Ukraine’s domestic grain production has consequently suffered a heavy blow. Large areas of land previously used for the production of major grain crops such as corn, wheat, and sunflower seeds have been abandoned. Especially in the east, the main grain-producing area due to its fertile soil, farmland infrastructure and production equipment have been severely damaged, and grain production and harvests have suffered losses that are difficult to accurately estimate.4 Restrictions on Ukraine’s grain and oil exports have caused grain and oil prices to rise in the global market, especially for agricultural products such as sunflower oil, wheat, and corn, for which Ukrainian exports account for a significant share. The most severely affected countries are mainly countries that import large amounts of grain from Ukraine, such as Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, and the Netherlands.5 From a global perspective: In one respect, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a contraction in food production and supply, disrupting important grain production and supply channels, and lifting the overall grain prices. It has intensified the long-standing food insecurity and hunger-driven panic in low- and middle-income countries that previously suffered from climate change, trade restrictions, and insufficient grain production and storage capacity, and intensified the global food security crisis.6 7 In another respect, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused panic on the consumer side and produced a chain reaction, with the frequent occurrence of political instability and social conflicts, especially in low- and middle-income countries,8 9 10 as well as countries and regions that are highly dependent on grain imports and have weak grain self-sufficiency themselves. Typical examples of such countries and regions include states in the Middle East and Africa, which are heavily dependent on the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets. In contrast, countries with high food self-sufficiency levels and strong economies remained relatively calmer.11 12 In short, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a negative impact on food security in terms of the production and supply of grain and key agricultural materials, exacerbating the global food security crisis. However, in the context of the food crisis, there are obvious differences concerning the realities faced by different regions and different economies.

俄乌冲突引发了能源、金融、粮食等多层面的安全危机,其中粮食安全问题的影响最为突出。从俄乌双方来看,俄罗斯方面依托土地资源、能源和矿产等资源优势,在全球粮食供给市场、能源供给市场和化肥等农用物资供给市场历来占有重要的地位。俄乌冲突之下俄罗斯收紧粮食、能源和化肥出口,一定程度上加剧了粮食、能源和化肥等市场供需失衡的紧张局势,推高了全球粮食及相关产品的市场价格,直接或问接地增加了全球粮食市场的不确定性风险。俄罗斯凭借对粮食、能源等关键性战略资源的掌控,对西方反俄势力进行反制,进一步引发全球对粮食安全的担忧。而乌克兰方面,冲突主要集中在其本土,因此乌克兰国内粮食生产遭受重创,其中玉米、小麦、葵花籽等主要粮食作物生产土地大面积撂荒,尤其是东部土壤肥沃的粮食主产区农田基础设施和生产设备遭受严重破坏,粮食生产和收获遭受难以精准估量的损失M。乌克兰粮油出口受限导致全球市场粮油价格攀升,尤其是乌克兰出口占比较大的葵花籽油、小麦、玉米等农产品,而受到冲击最严重的也主要是自乌克兰进口粮食规模较大的国家,例如埃及、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、荷兰等国家。而从全球视角来看:一方面,俄乌冲突导致生产和供给端的紧缩,导致重要的粮食生产、供应渠道中断和粮食价格全面上涨,并加剧了中低收入国家因气候变化、贸易限制和粮食生产与储备能力不足而长期存在的粮食不安全和饥饿恐慌,激化了全球性的粮食安全危机;另一方面,俄乌冲突引发消费端的恐慌情绪并产生连锁反应,政局动荡和社会斗争频现,尤其是中低收入国家,以及粮食进口依赖度较高和粮食自己能力较弱的国家和地区,其中较为典型的包括中东和非洲严重依赖俄乌粮食市场的地区,而粮食自给率高和经济实力较强的国家则相对更为从容。总结来看,俄乌冲突从粮食及关键农用物资的生产和供给两方面对粮食安全产生负面冲击,加剧了全球性的粮食安全危机,但不同地区和不同经济体在粮食危机风波下面临的局势存在明显差异。

2.2  Governance Options for Food Security Issues in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2.2 俄乌冲突下粮食安全问题的治理路径

The food security crisis in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has put all countries on edge. Though the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the event that triggered the food security crisis, to solve the food security problem, one should not only focus on the conflict itself, but also go beyond and look at problems in food security governance. Food security issues have a longstanding history, and the current outbreak is a combined effect of multiple historical factors. Researchers generally hold that emphasis should be made on the uneven distribution of global agricultural resources,13 climate change and extreme weather,14 15 the implementation of climate governance measures,16 regional conflicts,17 18 public health emergencies, 19 rising energy and shipping prices,20 trade protectionism,21 food financialization,22 and many other problems. To benefit in the long-run, we should take a holistic view of how to solve the food security problem. At the same time, some research has noted the reality of the global grain supply chain revealed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and recommended stabilizing the grain supply chain, building a well-established grain purchase and storage mechanism, improving food supply and security capabilities by increasing production and reducing consumption, and paying attention to improving grain self-sufficiency and reducing food dependence on foreign countries. 23 24 Many Chinese scholars have been keen on China’s food security issues and pointed out that we must put forward targeted measures to address the uncertainty of the trade environment,25 depletion and deterioration of the food production resources and environment,26 mismatch of resource, elements, and space,27 non-agricultural usage (非粮化) of cultivated land,28 high production costs,29 low quality of grain production and insufficient agricultural S&T innovation,30 and other factors that restrict Chinese grain production capacity, so as to prevent potential risk spillover from forming systemic risks. At the same time, we must improve the distribution efficiency of production resources, solve the problem of fragility of food production, increase our price negotiating power in the grain market, build secure and controllable food trade channels, and ensure food supply for key food varieties and vulnerable groups.31 32

俄乌冲突之下的粮食安全危机绷紧了各国神经。俄乌冲突是引爆粮食安全危机的导火索,但解决粮食安全问题不应只关注俄乌冲突本身,要跳出俄乌冲突看粮食安全治理问题。粮食安全问题由来已久,是多重历史因素叠加下的集中爆发,研究普遍认为要高度关注全球农业资源分布不均衡、气候变化和极端天气、气候治理措施实施、地区冲突、突发性公共卫生事件、能源和海运价格攀升、贸易保护主义、粮食金融化等诸多问题,以系统性思维解决粮食安全问题是长久之计。同时,部分研究结合俄乌冲突造成全球粮食供应链断裂的现实,分析认为稳定粮食供应链,搭建完备的粮食收储机制,以开源节流提高粮食供给和保障能力,并且要重视提升粮食自给能力,降低粮食对外依存度。国内许多学者聚焦中国粮食安全问题,指出要针对贸易环境的不确定性、粮食生产资源环境恶化、资源要素空问不匹配、耕地非粮化、生产成本高企、粮食生产质量偏低和农业科技创新程度不足明等制约国内粮食生产能力的因素提出针对性措施,预防潜在风险外溢形成系统性风险。同时,要通过提升生产资源的配置效率,解决粮食生产脆弱性问题,提高粮食市场议价能力,构建安全可控的粮食贸易渠道,保障重点粮食品种和弱势群体的粮食供应。

2.3 Commentary on Existing Literature

2.3  文献评述

The issue of food security has received widespread attention. Existing research has analyzed the causes, transmission paths, potential impacts, governance options, and other food security issues from different perspectives. However, current research on food security mostly focuses on China’s domestic resource limitations and international market conditions. When it comes to the fluctuations in supply, demand, and prices in the global food market caused by external shocks, there is insufficient research on the long-term impacts on domestic food security and possible systemic risks that may arise from production chains, supply chains, and financial markets. In the context of the ongoing evolution of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is still room for further reflection on the new changes in global food security and China’s food security governance options. This is precisely where this article attempts to build on the existing literature. In view of this, this article focuses on analyzing the uncertainty and the new landscape of global food security in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, organizing and laying out the current food security realities faced by China from the perspective of long-term impact and systemic risk, and finally puts forward ideas and suggested countermeasures for China’s food security governance at this new stage.

粮食安全问题受到了广泛关注,现有研究从不同视角分析了粮食安全的成因、传导路径、潜在影响、治理路径等问题,但当前对粮食安全的研究多聚焦中国国内资源限制和国际市场条件,针对外部冲击产生的全球粮食市场供需和价格波动,通过产业链、供应链和金融市场对国内粮食安全形成的长期影响以及可能产生的系统性风险研究不足,结合当前俄乌冲突持续演进的大背景,对全球粮食安全的新变局以及对中国粮食安全治理路径的探索仍有进一步拓展的空问,这正是本文尝试对现有相关文献进一步丰富和完善的地方。鉴于此,本文重点分析俄乌冲突之下全球粮食安全的不确定性和新局势,从长期影响和系统性风险视角,梳理当前中国面临的粮食安全局面,最终提出新阶段中国粮食安全治理的思路和对策建议。

3  New Landscape in Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

3 俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全新变局

Russia and Ukraine are major producers of a variety of important agricultural products and are typical net exporters of agricultural products. Their wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, and other agricultural products occupy an important position in the global grain and oil markets. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to uncertainty in terms of grain supply from Ukraine and Russia, pessimism regarding agricultural product trade, and amplified price fluctuations. Coupled with the impact of factors such as trade protectionism, grain export restrictions, and competition for grain to produce clean fuels, global grain prices have seen a general rise, grain supply has contracted and is barely meeting demand, the phenomenon of grain buy-ups and grain hoarding has become prominent, causing extreme challenges from the perspective of global food security. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected the global trade landscape and supply chain layout. The spillover effects of the food crisis continue to spread and amplify through the supply chain and financial markets, increasing the risk of a global economic crisis and bringing uncertainty to the post-pandemic recovery of the global economy.

俄罗斯和乌克兰是多种重要农产品的主要生产国,典型的农产品净出口国,小麦、大麦、玉米、葵花籽油等多种农产品在全球粮油市场占据重要地位。俄乌冲突导致乌克兰和俄罗斯粮食供应量不确定,农产品贸易预期差,价格波动被放大,加之贸易保护主义、粮食出口限制和清洁能源生产抢粮等因素冲击,全球粮食价格普涨、粮食供给趋紧、抢粮囤粮现象突出,全球粮食安全面临极大的挑战。俄乌冲突影响全球贸易格局和供应链布局,粮食危机溢出效应通过供应链和金融市场不断扩散和放大,增加了全球经济危机的风险,对疫情后世界经济的复苏带来不确定性和新变局。

3.1 The Positions of Russia and Ukraine in the Global Food Supply Chain

3.1  俄乌两国在全球粮食供应链中的地位

Russia and Ukraine possess globally important grain-producing regions. Russia has the world’s largest black soil belt by area, with agricultural land accounting for 13% of the country’s total territory. The gross output of wheat, Russia’s main staple, was 76 million tons in 2021, accounting for 9.72% of the world’s total wheat output. Ukraine’s agricultural land accounts for 70% of its land area. In 2021, the output of its main food crops, wheat and corn, were 33 million tons and 41.9 million tons respectively, accounting for 4.25% and 3.47% of the world total. Exports from Russia and Ukraine account for a large proportion of total global exports of various agricultural products and they are the main sources of food supply for many countries in West Asia and Africa. Public data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for 2021 shows that, as of the end of 2021, Russian and Ukrainian grain exports accounted for the highest proportion of the global market for sunflower oil, with the total market share of the two countries standing at 78.00% (Russia 28.00%, Ukraine 50.00%). This was followed by wheat at 32.53% (Russia 21.99%, Ukraine 10.54%), barley at 29.60% (Russia 12.93%, Ukraine 16.67%) and corn at 16.25% (Russia 2.25%, Ukraine 14.00%) (as shown in Figure 1). From a global perspective, on the one hand, the food supply is mainly contributed by a few countries with obvious advantages in agricultural resource endowments. On the other hand, at least half of the countries in the world are highly dependent on imports for their grain supply. As of the end of 2021, about 50 countries and regions around the world still relied on Russia and Ukraine for more than 30% of their wheat supply, and 26 countries relied on Russia and Ukraine for more than 50% of their wheat imports. Fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine also occupy an important place in the world market. In 2021, Russia was the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second-largest supplier of potash fertilizers, and the third-largest supplier of phosphate fertilizers. Russia’s control over the supply of chemical fertilizers remains a primary contributor to the imbalance between supply and demand of the global fertilizer market.

俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界重要粮食产区。俄罗斯拥有世界面积最大的黑土带,农业用地占国土面积的13%,2021年主要粮食作物小麦的产量为o.76亿吨,占世界小麦总产量的9.72%。乌克兰农业用地占国土面积的70%,2021年主要粮食作物小麦和玉米的产量分别为3 300万吨和4 190万吨,分别占世界小麦和玉米总产量的4.25%和3.47%。俄罗斯和乌克兰多种农产品出口在世界出口总额中占据较大比重,是西亚和非洲地区多个国家的主要粮食供给来源。联合国粮农组织(FA())2021年公开数据显示,截至2021年底,俄乌出口粮食在全球市场中份额最高的为葵花籽油,两国总市场份额为78.00%(俄罗斯28.00%,乌克兰50.00%),小麦32.53%(俄罗斯21.99%,乌克兰lo.54%)、大麦29.60%(俄罗斯12.93%,乌克兰16.67%)和玉米16.25%(俄罗斯2.25%,乌克兰14.00%)次之(图1)。从全球范围看,一方面粮食出口供应主要集中在少数几个农业资源禀赋优势明显的国家,另一方面全球至少一半以上的国家粮食供给高度依赖进口。截至2021年底,全球仍有大约50个国家和地区超过30%的小麦供应依赖俄乌两国,26个国家50%以上的小麦进口来自俄乌两国。俄乌两国的肥料出口也在世界市场占有重要一席,2021年,俄罗斯是全球第一大氮肥出口国、第二大钾肥供应国、第三大磷肥供应国,俄罗斯对化肥供给的控制直接影响了全球化肥市场供需失衡状态。

Figure l  Russia’s and Ukraine’s global market share for certain grains and fertilizers in 2021

图l 2021年俄罗斯、乌克兰部分粮食及化肥供给在全球市场的占比

Data source: FAO, the same for Figures 2 and 3.
数据来源:联合国粮农纠织。图2至图3同。

3.2  Short-Term Perspective: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Global Grain Market

3.2 短期视角:俄乌冲突对全球粮食市场产生的影响

3.2.1  Supply and Demand: Sharp Contraction in Supply Drove Demand Shifts and Panic Purchasing
3.2.1  供给和需求层面:供给急剧收缩,推动需求转移和恐慌性采购

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has halted the sowing, harvesting, transportation, and other stages of production for Ukraine’s main agricultural products, and the export of Russia’s main agricultural products and Russian fertilizer production has also been subject to both internal and external constraints. This has seriously affected the output and trade volume of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and other products, which exacerbated the tense situation for the supply of global agricultural products.

俄乌冲突导致乌克兰主要农产品播种、收获和运输等环节无法推进,俄罗斯主要农产品出口和化肥生产受内外双重限制,严重影响小麦、玉米、葵花籽油等产量和贸易量,加剧全球农产品供应紧张局势。

First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected Ukraine’s planted area of grain and its output, reducing its food supply for the world. Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture shows that about 35% of the country’s wheat production is concentrated in the eastern region, which was affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in heavy losses in winter agricultural products in Ukraine that are ready to harvest. The area sown with major agricultural products has been significantly reduced, and the total harvestable area and its yield for the year are difficult to predict. In the short term, Ukraine has lost its status as a major grain exporter, and the global grain supply capacity has declined significantly. According to forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Ukraine’s wheat exports are expected to drop to 11 million tons in 2022/2023, coarse grain exports to 17.93 million tons, and corn exports to 15.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease from 2021/2022 of 42%, 46%, and 33%.

第一,俄乌冲突影响乌克兰的粮食种植面积和产量,减少世界的粮食供应。乌克兰农业部数据显示,其大约35%的小麦生产主要集中在受俄乌冲突影响的东部地区。俄乌冲突导致乌克兰已成熟冬季农产品损失惨重,主要农产品播种面积大幅减少,年内可收获面积和产量难以预估,短期内乌克兰粮食出口大国地位丧失,全球粮食供给能力明显下滑。根据美国农业部(USDA)预测,2022/2023年度预计乌克兰小麦出口量降至11百万吨,粗粮出口降至17.93百万吨,玉米出口降至15.5百万吨,较2021/2022年度同比降幅分别为42%、46%和33%。

Second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has severely hampered shipping from ports and on land, threatening to disrupt the global grain supply chain. The Russia-Ukraine war has paralyzed the logistics at the Black Sea ports, and land rail and road transportation systems have all but come to a standstill. Ukraine’s grain exports will face risks of shipping cancellations or delayed delivery, and logistics disruptions of the Black Sea ports may also affect the grain exports for the neighboring countries of Romania, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan. Public data from the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine shows that Ukraine’s grain exports in November 2022 were less than 3 million tons, a further decline from the 4.2 million tons exported in October. Although Russia’s transportation capacity was unaffected, the level of its food supply has also been greatly compromised due to external sanctions. The April 2023 report of the FAO showed that world grain trade volume in 2022/2023 is expected to decrease by 2.7% compared with 2021/2022, to 469 million tons. The world may find it difficult to recover from the grain supply crisis produced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term.

第二,俄乌冲突导致港口航运及陆上运输严重受阻,危及全球粮食供应链。俄乌战争导致黑海港口物流陷入瘫痪,陆上铁路和公路运输系统几乎停摆,乌克兰的粮食出口将面临取消或延迟交付的风险,黑海港口的物流中断还可能影响邻国罗马尼亚、保加利亚以及哈萨克斯坦的粮食出口。乌克兰基础设施部公开数据显示,2022年11月乌克兰粮食出口不足300万吨,在10月420万吨的基础上进一步下滑。而俄罗斯尽管运输能力正常,但受外部制裁影响,粮食供应水平也大打折扣。联合国粮农组织2023年4月的报告显示,预计2022/2023年度世界谷物贸易量将较2021/2022年度下降2.7%,至4.69亿吨。俄乌冲突产生的粮食供应危机在短期内或难以有效恢复。

Third, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused other countries to increase their imported grain reserves and adopt export restrictions. At the same time, major grain-producing areas are under great pressure, and with limited ability to seek alternative sources of supply in the short term, the tension between global grain supply and demand is rising. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most countries throughout the world have made adjustments to scale up their grain reserves to varying degrees. Major grain-importing countries have increased the scale of imports for their main reserve grains. At the same time, countries and regions that have long been highly dependent on the Russian and Ukrainian markets for imported grain have begun to look for alternative sources of imports. These shifts in grain demand have led to a heightening panic in the grain market. Taking wheat as an example, besides Russia and Ukraine, the world’s major wheat exporting countries currently include Canada, the United States, Australia, India, and Argentina. Among these countries, Canada’s wheat inventory level is already low (August 2022); the US wheat output for 2022 will be reduced due to drought and will mainly be reserved to meet domestic supply needs; Australia has increased its planned exports for 2022 to meet market needs; and Argentina has also already sold 95% of its wheat available for export in 2022. At present, none of the main potential alternative sources can quickly make up insufficient wheat supply shortage of Russia and Ukraine in the short term. In addition to wheat, edible oil and fat products such as sunflower oil are also facing serious supply shortage risks because of the difficulty of finding alternative sources.

第三,俄乌冲突导致各国加大进口粮食储备和出口限制措施,同时主要粮食产区供给压力大,短期内可替代来源补缺能力有限,加剧了全球粮食供需紧张局势。俄乌冲突影响下,世界绝大多数国家均不同程度上调了粮食储备规模,主要粮食进口国均加大了主要储备粮的进口规模,同时,长期高度依赖俄乌市场进口粮食的国家和地区开始寻找替代进口来源,粮食需求的转移导致粮食市场恐慌情绪升温。以小麦为例,目前除俄罗斯和乌克兰之外,全球主要小麦出口国包括加拿大、美国、澳大利亚、印度和阿根廷等。其中,加拿大小麦库存水平已处于低位(2022年8月);2022年美国小麦受干旱影响减产,主要以满足国内供应为主;澳大利亚为满足市场需要,已经增加了2022年出口规划;阿根廷也已卖出了2022年全年95%的可供出口的小麦。从目前来看,潜在的主要替代来源均无法在短期内快速填补俄乌两国小麦供应缺口。除小麦外,葵花籽油等油脂类产品也因为难以寻找替代来源,面临严重的供应短缺风险。

3.2.2  Price Levels: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict has Pushed up Global Grain Prices, and Grain Price Levels Continue to Remain High
3.2.2 价格层面:俄乌冲突推高全球粮价,粮价水平居高不下

Under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global grain product prices have been further rising from the high levels seen in 2021, with prices of major grains such as wheat, soybeans, and corn rising to their highest level in the past eight years. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the prices of major global agricultural products continued to rise from their levels in the previous period, creating a global wave of rising grain prices. As shown in Figure 2, the global food price index in 2022 far exceeded the same period in 2019, 2020, and 2021. In the first month after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (March 2022) the food price index reached its highest level in recent years. Although it continued to decline since then, it was still much higher than the same period in previous years. From this, it can be seen that global grain and food prices are directly impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its effect has been overtly persistent.

受俄乌冲突影响,全球粮食产品价格在2021年高位的水平上进一步上涨,小麦、大豆和玉米等主要粮食价格涨到了近八年的最高水平。俄乌冲突爆发后,世界主要农产品价格在前期基础上持续攀升,形成全球性的粮价上涨潮。如图2所示,2022年全球食品价格指数要远高于2019年、2020年和2021年同期水平,其中俄乌冲突爆发后的第一个月(2022年3月)食品价格指数达到近年来最高水平,尽管后续保持下降趋势,但仍远高于往年同期水平,可见全球粮食价格受俄乌冲突直接影响并具有明显的持续性。

Figure 2   Comparison of monthly food price index data from 2019 to 2022

图2 2019 2022年食品价格指数月度数据对比

The index baseline is set at 100 representing prices from 2014-16. The same applies to Figure 3.
注:指数计算以2014年2016年一100。图3同。

Under the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global grain prices continued to rise. As shown in Figure 3, the price indexes of meat, milk, grain, vegetable oil, and sugar all rose sharply after the outbreak of the conflict. Among these, the price index for vegetable oils, including sunflower oil, saw the sharpest increase. The general rise in global food prices has caused a global food security crisis. Russia’s fertilizer exports from March to September 2022 fell by 38% year-on-year, and international buyers lost nearly 8 million tons of fertilizer supply. According to the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), global fertilizer deliveries are expected to drop by 7% year-on-year in 2022, with Asia and Africa bearing the brunt of the impact. The decline in fertilizer supply has triggered an increase in prices across the board. For example, Japan’s fertilizer prices increased by 8% to 31% from June to October 2022, setting a new high since 1999. Specifically, the price of potassium chloride increased by 31%, phosphate fertilizer increased by 16%, compound fertilizer increased by 10%, and the price of urea increased by 11%. As a key element in fertilizer production, the price of energy has also soared. Data from the Dutch Title Transfer Facility Natural Gas Price Index (TTF), the European natural gas price benchmark, showed a maximum increase in natural gas prices of 270% in May 2022, while U.S. natural gas futures prices saw a maximum increase of 192%. The rise in energy prices further aggravated the increase in fertilizer prices.

在俄乌冲突的持续影响下,全球谷物价格持续上涨,如图3所示,肉类、奶类、谷物、植物油油脂和食糖价格指数均在俄乌冲突爆发后出现大幅上涨,其中以葵花籽油为代表的植物油油脂价格指数涨幅最为突出,全球粮食价格普涨造成全球性的粮食安全危机。2022年3 9月俄罗斯的化肥出口同比下降38%,国际买家损失了近800万吨的化肥供应。据国际肥料工业联合会(IFA)预计,2022年全球化肥投放量同比预计下降7%,其中亚洲和非洲首当其冲。化肥供应量的下滑引发价格全线上涨,例如日本2022年6 10月化肥价格提高了8%~31%,创下1999年以来的新高,其中氯化钾涨价31%、磷酸肥料涨价16%、复合肥涨价10%、尿素涨价11%。而能源作为化肥生产的关键性要素,价格也一路飙升,欧洲天然气价格基准荷兰产权转让设施天然气价格指数(TTF)2022年5月数据显示,天然气最高涨幅达270%,美国天然气期货价格最高涨幅达到192%,能源价格的攀升进一步加剧了化肥价格上涨。

Figure 3     Monthly data for specific food price indexes from January 2020 to November 2022

图3  2020年1月—2022年11月分类食品价格指数月度数据

Month
月份

3.3 Long-Term Perspective: Uncertainty and New Changes in Global Food Security Landscape

3.3 长期视角:全球粮食安全的不确定性和新变局

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only affected the supply, demand, and price trends of global grain, energy, fertilizer, and other commodities in the short term, but its spillover effects also disrupted international trade and led to financial market turmoil, challenging the global economic security with regional imbalances and uncoordinated policies. These effects, therefore, become the “stumbling block” to global economic recovery.

俄乌冲突不仅在短期内影响全球粮食、能源、化肥等商品的供需和价格走势,其外溢效应扰乱国际贸易并造成金融市场动荡,导致世界经济安全局势面临地区不平衡、政策不协调,进而成为全球经济复苏的“拦路虎”。

3.3.1 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Changed the Agricultural Product Trade Landscape and Led to the Restructuring of the Global Grain Supply Chain
3.3.1  俄乌冲突改变农产品贸易格局,推动全球粮食供应链重塑

The food and energy crisis currently confronting the world is not just an issue of supply, demand, and prices. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has caused disruptions in global food and fertilizer production and supply chains. International cooperation has been affected, and the international trade landscape is facing restructuring. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened the influence of Russia and Ukraine in the global grain supply chain. On the other hand, grain-producing areas such as India, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina have seized the opportunity to further expand their market shares. In order to eliminate their dependence on Russia for food and energy, some countries are continuing to expand their imports from other sources. For example, the EU has been importing more sunflower oil from countries such as Argentina and South Africa to replace its imports from Russia. Countries in Africa and the Middle East that are highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for their grain supply also have no choice but to seek other sources of supply. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, previously imported 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Amid the grain supply disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it turned to the United States, Argentina, Canada, and other countries for food import alternatives. The world’s agricultural product trade and supply chain landscape has been evolving continuously. In addition, in order to ensure the future security of the supply chains, countries are engaging in fierce competition around agricultural product supply chains, warehousing, processing, shipping, and other key stages, in order to accelerate the construction of “moats” around national food security.

当前全球面临的粮食、能源危机不仅仅是供需和价格问题,俄乌冲突造成全球粮食和化肥生产和供应链断裂,国际合作受到干扰,国际贸易格局面临重塑。一方面,俄乌冲突削弱了俄罗斯和乌克兰在全球粮食供应链中的影响力;另一方面,印度、澳大利亚、巴西和阿根廷等粮食产区抓住机遇不断扩展市场份额。部分国家为了摆脱对俄罗斯的粮食和能源依赖,不断拓展其他进口来源。比如欧盟进口更多阿根廷和南非等国的葵花籽油替代自俄罗斯的进口。非洲和中东等对俄乌两国粮食供应高度依赖的国家也不得不寻求其他的供应来源。世界上最大的小麦进口国埃及,过去80%小麦自俄乌两国进口,在俄乌冲突粮食供应紧张的局势下,转向美国、阿根廷、加拿大等粮食进口替代国。世界农产品贸易和供应链格局正在不断演进。除此之外,为保证来粮食供应链安全,各国围绕农产品供应链、仓储加工和海运等关键环节展开激烈竞争,加快筑牢国家粮食安全“护城河”。

3.3.2 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict is Changing the Food Production Arrangements of Various Countries, which Promotes Global Food Security Governance
3.3.2 俄乌冲突改变各国粮食生产安排,推动全球粮食安全治理

Although, at present, the output of global agricultural products maintains an overall balance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the further emergence of an uneven regional distribution landscape. Countries around the world are engaging in geopolitical games around agriculture and food security, leading to profound impacts on the international order. According to incomplete statistics, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at least 50 countries, including Russia, Ukraine, India, and Turkey, have implemented export restrictions on agricultural products, while even more countries have taken measures to relax food import restrictions to expand food imports (Table 1). Data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) from November 2022 shows that the export restrictions imposed on the five agricultural products of wheat, palm oil, corn, sunflower oil, and soybean oil following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict accounted for 90% of the total export restrictions. In the long term, taking active measures to improve food self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on external food sources will be the main methodology of food security governance for various countries. For example, the European Union has relaxed environmental regulations to allow the cultivation of fallow land, which was originally left uncultivated for crop diversity or ecological purposes, and Brazil has increased fertilizer production and wheat production in the Lacerda region.

尽管当前全球农产品产量保持总体平衡,但是俄乌冲突导致区域性分布不均矛盾进一步显现,世界各国围绕农业和粮食安全展开地缘政治博弈,深刻影响国际秩序。俄乌冲突以来,据不完全统计包括俄罗斯、乌克兰、印度、土耳其等至少50个国家实施了农产品出口限制措施,而更多国家则采取放宽粮食进口限制措施以扩大粮食进口(表1)。国际食物政策研究所(IFPRI)2022年11月的数据显示,俄乌冲突后的出口限制措施对小麦、棕榈油、玉米、葵花籽油和大豆油五种农产品的出口受限规模占总出口受限规模的90%。长期来看,采取积极措施提高粮食自给率和降低粮食对外依存度,是各个国家主要的粮食安全治理思路。比如欧盟放宽环境规制,允许用于作物多样性或生态目标而进行休耕的土地进行种植,巴西提高化肥产量,并增加拉塞尔地区的小麦生产。

Table 1 Selected countries (regions) with food export restrictions and measures after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

表1 俄乌冲突爆发后部分实施粮食出口限制的国家(地区)及措施情况

Source: Collected from data of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
数据歹|乏源:根姑国际食物政策讲究所(IH’RI)数赫昔整理。
3.3.3  The Russia-Ukraine Conflict has Increased Systemic Risks in the Global Economy and Undermined the Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery
3.3.3 俄乌冲突增加全球经济系统性风险,影响疫情后经济复苏

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global agricultural product trade and food security has resulted in an extensive, long-lasting, and deep impact on the global economy through the spillover, transmission, and amplification effects of production chains and supply chains, increasing the systemic risks of global economic crisis and hindering the post-pandemic global economic recovery.

俄乌冲突对世界农产品贸易和粮食安全的影响通过的产业链和供应链的溢出效应、传导效应、放大效应导致对世界经济的波及范围广、持续时问长、影响程度深,增加了全球经济危机的系统性风险,阻碍了疫情后世界经济的复苏。

From an industrial perspective, on the one hand, the shrinking grain, fertilizer, and energy supply from Russia and Ukraine and rising prices are transmitted through upstream and downstream industries along the production chains. Grain planting and production have an obvious cyclical nature, and food security risks are transmitted upstream to farmers and suppliers and downstream to the livestock and farming industries. On the other hand, port congestion and airspace closures have continued to increase pressure on maritime, air, and land transportation. In addition to grain and energy, shortages have also continued to intensify in industries that have long relied on cross-border transportation such as auto parts and semiconductors. From the perspective of regional development, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the regional imbalance between developing and developed countries. In particular, it has placed a heavy burden on the people from most developing countries. In some poor countries in Africa, regional instability further emerged due to the food crises. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the concentrated outbreak of long-dormant development pressures and crises. For example, emerging problems such as debt burdens, which have reached historical highs, and commodity price shocks, will significantly increase the risks of jeopardizing countries’ international balance of payments, as well as causing exchange rate depreciation and debt crisis. Looking at financial market risks, prices have risen as the Russia-Ukraine conflict dragged on, and global inflationary pressure has reached a new peak. The latest simulation forecast from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows, that following the given assumptions, global GDP growth may fall by more than 1 percentage point in the year following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and global inflation may increase by nearly 2.5 percentage points. The global macroeconomic landscape will face more uncertainty and turmoil, and the global economy may be exposed to the risk of contraction.

从产业视角分析,一方面,俄乌两国粮食和化肥能源供给收缩、价格攀升通过产业链上下游传递,粮食种植与生产具有明显的周期性,粮食安全风险向上游农户和提供商以及下游畜牧业、养殖业等传导。另一方面,港口堵塞、领空关闭,使海运、空运和陆路交通压力持续升高,除了粮食和能源,长期依赖跨境运输的汽车零部件、半导体等行业的短缺问题也持续加剧。从区域发展视角,俄乌冲突加剧发展中国家与发达国家之问的地区不平衡,尤其是对广大发展中国家民众造成沉重负担,非洲部分贫困国家由于粮食危机,地区不稳定因素上升。俄乌冲突导致潜伏已久的发展压力和危机集中爆发,例如已达到历史高位的债务负担以及大宗商品价格冲击等问题的暴露将显著增加其国际收支恶化、汇率贬值和发生债务危机的风险。从金融市场风险视角,俄乌冲突持续下价格攀升,全球通胀压力达到新高点,经济合作与发展组织(()ECD)的最新模拟预测表明,在给定情景假设下,全球GDP增长在俄乌冲突开始后的一年中可能会降低1个百分点以上,全球通胀可能会提高近2.5个百分点。全球宏观经济形势面临更多不确定性和动荡,经济面临收缩危险。

4 Situation and Challenges Facing China’s Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

4 俄乌冲突局势下中国粮食安全面临的形势与挑战

At present, China has sufficient supplies and reserves of major grains, and grain prices are generally stable and have not been significantly impacted by the inflation in global grain prices. However, China is also facing severe challenges due to the uncertainty and global food security systematic risks brought about by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis.

当前,中国的主要粮食供应和储备充足,粮食价格总体平稳,并未受全球粮食通胀的大幅度冲击。但俄乌冲突不断持续带来的不确定性和全球粮食安全系统风险使中国也面临严峻挑战。

4.1 Supply Chain Resilience and Food Security Face Rising Risks Due to External Shocks

4.1 外部冲击下供应链韧性和粮食安全风险上升

As a major global importer of grain, China is highly dependent on foreign countries for soybeans, corn, and other grain varieties, and its import sources are relatively concentrated. Amid the panic purchasing of grain and grain trade restrictions, China is facing more severe pressure on its food reserves. Although China’s supply is currently sufficient for the moment, given the complex international situation, China must be prepared for emergencies, be wary of the possible shortages in grain and oil supply due to possible import limitations in the future, and re-evaluate the risks and difficulties of using the international market to safeguard its food security. On the basis of ensuring food self-sufficiency, China must further expand trade channels, ensure diversified sources of imports, firmly seize the initiative in food imports, build safe and resilient supply chains, and prevent risk spillovers from the global food market.

中国作为全球重要的粮食进口大国,大豆、玉米等粮食品种对外依存度较高,且进口来源地相对集中,在全球性抢粮风潮和粮食贸易限制措施之下,中国面临更为严峻的粮食储备压力。虽然目前供应暂时安全,但在复杂的国际形势下,中国必须未雨绸缪,警惕未来可能发生被限制进口带来的粮油供应不足,重新评估利用国际市场维护粮食安全的风险和难度,在保证粮食自给自足的基础上,进一步开拓贸易渠道,保证多元化进口来源,牢牢掌握粮食进口的主动权,构建安全韧性的供应链,防备全球粮食市场的风险溢出。

4.2 The Strategic Struggles between Major Powers and the Geopolitical Tensions Increase the Urgency of Building a Strong Agricultural Country

4.2 大国博弈与地缘局势加剧构建农业强国的紧迫性

From the perspective of agricultural S&T and the development of the seed industry, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the seed industry, as the core of a country’s agricultural competitiveness, has become a bargaining chip and tool alongside the diplomatic means to engage in geopolitical games. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the German company Bayer and other major global seed companies announced that they would stop “all non-essential business” in Russia. As a major grain-producing country, Russia mainly relies on imported seeds for grain production. The imposition of seed industry sanctions on Russia by Western countries will seriously threaten Russia’s food security. This may serve as a strong warning call for China. China’s seed industry also faces the problem of high dependence on imports. Although staple grains are mostly independently bred, China’s per-unit yield levels of corn, soybeans, and other staples lag behind major world agricultural powers, and China still relies on imports to provide seed sources for many agricultural products. We must strengthen strategic resource deployments for the development of key agricultural fields such as the seed industry and “chokepoint” technologies.

从农业科技和种业发展视角分析,俄乌冲突下,种业作为一国农业竞争力的核心,成为配合外交手段进行地缘政治博弈的筹码和工具。俄乌冲突爆发以后,德国拜耳等世界主要种子公司宣布将停止在俄罗斯的“所有非必要业务”。而作为粮食生产大国,俄罗斯粮食种子主要依靠进口,西方国家对俄罗斯实施种业制裁将严重威胁俄罗斯粮食安全,这对中国具有很强的警示意义。中国种业同样面临高度依赖进口的问题,虽然主粮基本实现了自主育种,但是玉米、大豆等单产水平与世界农业强国还有一定的差距,很多农产品的种源依然依赖进口。我们必须加强对种业等农业关键领域和“卡脖子”技术的发展战略部署。

Based on the perspective of the grain market and multinational enterprises, at present, the four major grain companies, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus occupy dominant positions in the global grain market. Most of the production, storage and transportation, trade, and financial processes for major grain-producing regions are in the hands of the four major grain merchants. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has undermined the status of Russia and Ukraine in the global grain market. The center of power in global grain supply has shifted to grain-producing areas such as North America and South America. Leveraging their advantageous market positions in these regions, the four major grain corporations continue to encroach on the agricultural markets of developing countries and push up global grain prices, thus further consolidating and maintaining their hegemony over grain supply. Currently, China lacks transnational companies that enjoy established positions in the market, and lacks the voice to protect its rights during resource distribution, product pricing, and rule formulation in the agricultural and grain markets. In order to realize a coordinated deployment of the entire agricultural supply chain covering production, processing, warehousing, and logistics, we must actively cultivate large international grain companies and transnational agricultural enterprises, promote the upgrade of the entire agricultural supply chain, and build an independent and controllable agricultural supply chain.

从粮食市场和跨国企业视角分析,当前,四大粮商ADM、邦吉、嘉吉、路易达孚在世界粮食市场中占据着主导地位,主要粮食产区的生产、储运、贸易、金融等大部分都掌握在四大粮商手中。俄乌冲突削弱了俄罗斯和乌克兰在世界粮食市场的地位,全球粮食供应重心向北美洲和南美洲等粮食产区转移,四大粮商凭借在这些地区的优势市场地位不断蚕食发展中国家农业市场,推高全球粮价,从而进一步巩固、维持自身的粮食霸权地位。当前,中国缺乏具有一定市场地位的跨国企业,对农产品及粮食市场的资源掌控、产品定价、规则制定等缺乏有利的话语权。要实现生产、加工、仓储物流等农业全产业链协同布局,必须要积极培育国际大粮商和跨国农业企业,推进农业产业全链条升级,实现农业产业链自主可控。

4.3 Risks and Uncertainty Entail Higher Requirements for Adjustments to Food Security Policies

4.3 风险不确定性对粮食安全政策调整提出更高要求

The agricultural production chain stands as a complex agricultural product market involving multiple entities, multiple links, and multiple levers. If there is a problem in any part, it will form obvious spillover effects via transmission and amplification along the production chain. Uncertainty caused by external shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict can easily lead to policy and market failures, which in turn trigger turbulence in the grain market. As the crisis may be transmitted through the supply chain, countries should set higher requirements for policy coordination among different industries. At present, market and policy regulation are mostly limited to individual products and links, such as the staples market and meat products market. Greater attention is needed in terms of holistic and systemic regulation and overall coordination for all links throughout the entire chain. Therefore, in order to cope with the volatile international grain market and ensure domestic food security, we must establish a comprehensive macro-regulation system, form a regulation mechanism for the entire production chain, provide policy support for enterprises to build a complete production chain from production to the dining table, and enhance the government’s control over markets.

农业产业链是多主体、多环节、多手段参与的复杂农产品市场,任何一部分出现问题,通过产业链的传导和放大将会形成明显的外溢效应。俄乌冲突等外部冲击带来的不确定性容易导致政策失效与市场失灵,进而引发粮食市场动荡,危机通过供应链传递,对不同行业问的政策协调提出更高要求。目前的市场和政策调控大多局限于单个产品和环节,如主粮市场、肉制品市场等,从整体和系统视角,对全链条各环节综合调控和整体协调的关注不够。因此,为应对震荡的国际粮食市场,保障国内粮食安全,必须着手建立一套完整的宏观调控体系,形成全产业链调控机制,在政策上支持企业构建从生产到终端的完整的产业链,增强国家对市场的掌控力。

5 Rethinking China’s Food Security Strategy in the New Era and Targeted Suggestions

5 新时期中国粮食安全战略的再思考与对策建议

The global grain crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a sharp reminder to us that the world economy is interconnected and interdependent, but “to forge iron, one must have one’s own strength” (打铁还需自身硬). In the new era, China must make full use of internal and external resources to enhance its food security and consolidate the foundation of the “granary of a great power” (大国粮仓). We must not only attach great importance to building our national strength, but also actively participate in global food security governance. We must not only ensure absolute security regarding food “quantity,” but also pay attention to the improvement of food “quality.” We must not only pay attention to the integration of agricultural resources and the construction of a unified large market, but also promote agricultural S&T innovation and market entity support. Therefore, these methods will pave the way for building a strong agricultural country.

俄乌冲突引发的全球粮食危机警醒我们,世界经济相互联系相互依赖,但“打铁还需自身硬”,新时期中国要充分借助内外部资源增强粮食安全,夯实“大国粮仓”的根基,既要重视塑造自身硬实力,也要加强对全球粮食安全的治理参与;既要加强粮食“量”的绝对安全,也要重视粮食“质”的提升;既要重视农业资源整合和统一大市场构建,也要推动农业科技创新和市场主体保障,稳步迈向农业强国。

5.1 Strengthen Macro-Regulation and Risk Avoidance Capabilities to Ensure Food Security

5.1  强化粮食安全宏观调控与风险规避能力

The capacity for institutional innovation capabilities and institutional support is the “moat” of the food security fortress. Championing food security is a systematic project. The grain production chain involves numerous links with complex industrial elements, its range of influence and coverage is wide, it involves many units and departments, and it remains a place where different interests are intertwined. We must give full play to the regulatory role of the government, promote the formulation and implementation of relevant laws and regulations, improve the capability of institutional support, establish and improve a multi-level, multi-dimensional, and multi-channel macro-regulation system, build a regulatory mechanism for the entire production chain, and improve the comprehensive support system for food security. First, we must strengthen the scientific development and sustainable utilization of important agricultural resources, promote the innovation of business management models for important basic materials for grain production such as land resources and germplasm resources, and lay the foundation for fostering new market entities and promoting modernized production. Second, we must give full play to the government in regulating grain import trade, grain production structure, grain procurement, storage, and distribution, as well as grain market prices. We should optimize the grain production, supply, and sales structure through macro-regulation, compensate for the failures of market-based mechanisms and areas of weakness or shortage, and improve the grain production chain deployment and market environment. Third, we must strengthen market monitoring and cross-regional transportation, resolutely prevent local supply shortages and sharp rises in market prices, ensure the continuous and uninterrupted supply of grain, make full use of modern information technology to establish a multi-level and comprehensive monitoring and early warning system, as well as a decision-making support system, thereby guarding the bottom line for food security.

制度创新能力和制度保障能力是粮食安全堡垒的“护城河”。粮食安全保障是一项系统性工程,粮食产业链条长,产业内容丰富,辐射范围和覆盖面广,涉及的单位和部门多,利益关系较为复杂,要充分发挥政府部门的调控作用,促进相关法律法规体系的制定和执行,增强制度保障水平,建立健全多层次、多维度、多渠道的宏观调控体系,形成全产业链调控机制,完善粮食安全综合保障体系。一是要加强重要农业资源的科学开发和可持续利用,促进土地资源、种质资源等重要粮食生产基础物资的经营管理模式创新,为培育新型市场主体和促进现代化生产奠定基础。二是在粮食进口贸易、粮食生产种类结构、粮食收储和市场投放、粮食市场价格等方面发挥政府调控作用,通过宏观调节优化粮食产供销结构,弥补市场调节机制失灵和缺位短板,改善粮食产业链布局和市场环境。三是加强市场监测和跨区域调运,坚决防止出现局部供给紧张和市场价格大幅上涨,确保粮食供应不断档脱销,充分利用现代信息技术建立多层次、立体化的监测预警体系和决策支持体系,守护粮食安全风险底线。

5.2 Focus on S&T Independence and Empowerment, as well as New Agricultural Business Forms, to Consolidate Support for Ensuring Food Security

5.2 聚焦科技自立自强和农业新业态发展,巩固粮食安全支撑力

One important lesson from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the need to form an independent, autonomous, and controllable food supply chain. In this, agricultural S&T innovation is an important source of support and power for food security assurance. In the process of accelerating the transformation of agricultural production from increasing yield to improving quality, China must focus on improving the independence of and empowering agricultural S&T, accelerate agricultural S&T innovation with a focus on the seed industry, improve the compatibility of agricultural technology with the front-line needs of the industry, and implement the strategy of “Storing Grain in Technology” (藏粮于技). We must seize the favorable opportunity presented by the new round of S&T revolution and focus on agricultural mode innovation and new agricultural business forms, in order to embark on a path of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics. In this, agricultural digitalization is an important channel to improve food security and quality. Specifically, we must focus on the following three aspects: First, we must give full play to the role of modern technology advancements such as big data, cloud computing, and blockchain as a buffering mechanism against the impact of major emergencies. Focusing on each stage in the supply chain, such as the materials for agricultural production, agricultural production processes and crop growth status monitoring, harvesting, processing, market circulation, and end sales of agricultural products, we must build a smart supply chain system for agriculture and an agricultural S&T innovation platform, promote the construction of comprehensive industrial systems including smart farmland, farms, pastures, orchards, and agricultural workshops, and promote intelligent coordination of agricultural data and digital transformation of the agricultural industry. Second, we must accelerate the transformation of the supply model of agricultural products by using digitized means to promote the precise and efficient matching between agricultural production and the individualized needs of consumers, and promote the upgrade of the agricultural production chain. Third, we must accelerate the designing of agricultural digitization standards, promote the construction of agricultural digitization project facilities, form an internationally competitive digital agricultural system, and raise our status and voice in the international grain market.

俄乌冲突的一个重要启示是要形成独立、自主、可控的粮食供应链,农业科技创新则是保障粮食安全的重要支撑和动力源泉。农业生产由增产向提质加速转变过程中,中国要坚持农业科技自立自强,加快以种业为重点的农业科技创新,促进农业技术与产业一线需求的紧密结合,落实“藏粮于技”战略。要抢抓新一轮科技革命有利时机,聚焦农业模式创新和农业新业态走出一条具有中国特色的农业现代化道路,其中农业数字化发展是提升粮食安全质量的重要渠道。具体而言需要重点关注以下三个方面:一是要充分发挥大数据、云计算、区块链等现代技术优势对重大突发性事件冲击的缓冲作用,从农业生产的物资供应,农业生产过程和农作物生长状态监测,农产品收获、加工、市场流通和终端销售等各环节发力,搭建农业智慧供应链体系和农业科技创新平台,推动智慧型农田、农场、牧场、果园、农业车问等综合产业体系建设,促进农业数据智能联动和农业产业数字化转型。二是加快农产品供应模式的转变,借助数字化手段推动农业生产与消费者个性化需求的精准高效对接,推动农业产业链结构升级。三是加快农业数字化标准建设,推动农业数字化工程设施建设,形成具有国际竞争力的数字农业体系,提高在国际粮食市场的地位和话语权。

5.3 Accelerate the Building of a Unified Domestic Market and Promote the Conversion of Advantageous Agricultural Resource Endowments

5.3 加快构建国内统一大市场,促进农业资源禀赋优势转化

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has restricted the supply of some important agricultural products, which also reminds us that we must focus on leveraging our domestic regional resource advantages and leverage the potential of regional grain production to compensate for the shortages in some agricultural products. We must accelerate the construction of a unified and large domestic market, eliminate regional disparity and “border effects,” promote cross-regional mobility of important agricultural resource elements and the complementarity of regional advantages, drive regional agricultural production to break through the bottleneck of variability constraints (可变性约束), and enhance agricultural production capacity and food supply capacity across the board. Specifically: First, we must promote the cross-regional mobility of key production elements such as pesticides, seeds, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, agricultural production technology, and agricultural S&T talents, optimize the distribution scheme of regional agricultural resources, and improve the basic conditions for regional agricultural production. Second, we must accelerate the cross-regional transportation and storage of finished agricultural products, form an efficient network of regional grain transportation routes, and ensure the efficiency of regional grain transportation. Third, we must establish a unified national agricultural market platform, build a nationwide sharing platform that integrates farming season information, agricultural production conditions, agricultural resources, agricultural product supply and demand trends, and other relevant information, and improve the efficiency of agricultural resource distribution.

俄乌冲突导致部分重要农产品供给受限,这也提示我们要重视发挥国内区域资源优势,提升区域粮食生产潜力以填补部分农产品缺口。要加快建设国内统一大市场,打破区域分割和“边界效应”,推动重要农业资源要素跨区域流动和区域优势互补,带动区域农业生产突破可变性约束瓶颈,提升全域农业生产能力和粮食供给能力。具体而言:一是要促进农药、种子、化肥、农业机械、农业生产技术、农业科技人才等关键性生产要素跨区域流动,优化区域农业资源配比,改善区域农业生产基础条件。二是要加快农业产成品的跨区域调运和储备,打通区域粮食调运线路网络,保障区域粮食调运通畅性。三是要建立全国农业统一市场平台,搭建集农时信息、农业生产情况、农用物资、农产品供需等综合信息于一体的全国共享平台,提高农业资源配置效率。

5.4  Strike a Balance between Domestic and International Grain Markets and Seize the Initiative in Ensuring Food Security

5.4 平衡利用好国内国际粮食市场,把住粮食安全主动权

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the disruption of important international grain supply chains, which demonstrates the importance of maintaining a stable and controllable international grain supply chain. As a major grain-importing country, China must fully mobilize external market resources, give full play to the overall capabilities of the international market to make adjustments for surpluses and deficiencies and improve consumption diversification, build a diversified import structure, and enhance control over the global grain supply chain by a variety of means such as strengthening the construction of the overseas grain procurement network, focusing on cultivating large-scale grain trading enterprises, and through channels of diplomacy, trade cooperation, and resource exchanges. In particular, we must pay attention to the efficiency of import channels for bulk feed grains such as soybeans and corn, strengthen the ability to import feed grains from alternative sources, alleviate the potential risks caused by reliance on single varieties of imported agricultural products and highly concentrated import sources, and improve the stability and security of the grain import chain by a set of means such as overseas agricultural investment, overseas farmland leasing, overseas supply chain construction, and international shipping line network construction. In addition, we must actively participate in international food project cooperation, including promoting agricultural cooperation in seed technology R&D, land resource development, water resource utilization, as well as consensus-forging on utilization and damage reduction of forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery resources, thereby promoting the coordination of agricultural policies in the international community, facilitating the building of a more fair and equitable grain supply system, and improving grain and agricultural governance capacity at a global level.

俄乌冲突导致国际重要的粮食供应链断裂,稳定可控的国际粮食供应链的重要性充分显现。中国作为粮食进口大国,必须要充分调动外部市场资源,发挥国际市场调剂余缺和提升消费多元化水平的综合能力,构建多元化进口格局,通过加强海外粮食采购网络建设,注重培育大型粮食贸易企业,以外交、贸易合作、资源互换等多种形式增强对全球粮食供应链的掌控能力。尤其关注大豆、玉米等大宗饲料粮的进口渠道畅通问题,加强饲料粮的替代性进口,缓解进口农产品品种单一和进口来源地高度集中形成的潜在风险,通过农业海外投资、海外耕地租赁、海外供应链建设、国际航运线路网络建设等多种手段提升粮食进口链条的稳定性和安全性。此外,要积极参与国际粮食项目合作,包括推动种子技术研发、土地资源开发、水资源利用、林牧渔业资源利用、减损共识等在内的农业合作,促进国际社会农业政策协调,推动构建更加公平、平等的粮食供应体系,从全球层面提升粮农治理能力。

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Cite This Page

李春顶 (Li Chunding), 李董林 (Li Donglin), 李娟 (Li Juan). "Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China’s Food Security Policy Options in the New Era [俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全与新时期中国粮食安全政策选择]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in World Agriculture [世界农业], June 28, 2023

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