全球安全倡议: 应对挑战的中国答案
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Global Security Initiative: China’s Answer to Challenges

全球安全倡议: 应对挑战的中国答案

The vice president of CICIR, a Ministry of State Security-affiliated IR think tank, argues that Beijing’s introduction of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) is timely amid “turmoil” in the international system. He identifies three strategies China should follow as it promotes the principles of the GSI, which Xi Jinping laid out at the 2022 Bo’ao Forum for Asia in April.


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Challenges to Global Security

面临的挑战

The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. The change of the century, changes in the world, and changes in history are unfolding on different levels. The COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world has accelerated these changes in breadth and depth. The Ukraine crisis triggered the traditional symptoms of great power conflict and has become the most recent manifestation of these changes. The free, open, cooperative, and prosperous world we have witnessed for nearly four decades seems to be fading away. Everything we are familiar with is subject to inevitable change, or we could say everything seems to suddenly jump into another picture, where the challenges facing humanity are presented as never before. Any single variable, whether the COVID-19 pandemic or the Ukrainian crisis, is only a new variable in the great changes unseen in a century. It is neither decisive nor the great change itself. These new variables have their own influence, but the superimposed influence of all these variables is far more profound and far-reaching, so much so that it poses a challenge to global security and global development.

世界正在经历百年未有之大变局。世纪之变、世界之变、历史之变正在不同层面上展开。席卷全球的新冠肺炎疫情加快了这种变局的广度与深度,乌克兰危机触发了大国冲突的传统病症,成为这种变局的最新表现。近四十年来我们所见证的自由、开放、合作、繁荣的世界似乎正在远去,我们所熟悉的一切难以避免地发生改变,或者说一切似乎突然间跳转到另外一个画面,人类面临的挑战前所未有地表现出来。任何单一的变量,无论是新冠肺炎疫情还是乌克兰危机,都只是百年大变局中的新变量,既非决定性的,更非大变局本身,这些新变量有其各自的影响,而所有变量的叠加性影响却更为深远,而这构成全球安全与世界发展的挑战。

First, the blocs and camps in world politics are becoming increasingly clear. At least at the level of major powers, the confrontational situation between the United States and the West and non-Western countries has already been revealed. This situation is less due to changes in world power, particularly the rise of China, than a result of the inherent thinking patterns of the West. The United States and the West insist on embroiling China and Russia, viewing them as “strategic competitors” and “revisionist countries.” Competition has replaced cooperation, and containment has replaced coordination. Although the situation is not completely hostile in nature, the confrontational tone is very clear and prominent. Although the practice is “cooperate when we should cooperate and confront when we should confront” (该合作的合作, 该对抗的对抗), the confrontation is comprehensive and in all areas, signaling a parting of the ways. The West came together to impose sanctions on Russia and expelled it from the SWIFT system. They are preparing digital trade agreements and Internet protocols that cover the Indo-Pacific region but exclude China and promoting a new Asia-Pacific economic framework that excludes China and Russia. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia show an obvious penchant for grouping with the United States. The Democratic coalition roped together by the Biden administration may also become a normalized international platform, the goals of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” are becoming further focused, and expansion may go further.

首先,世界政治集团化、阵营化日见清晰,至少在大国层面,美西方与非西方对峙态势已然表露。这种状况与其说世界力量变化特别是中国崛起使然,不如说是西方固有的思维形态促成。美西方硬要把中俄牵扯到一起,视之为“战略竞争对手”、“修正主义国家”,竞争取代合作、牵制取代协调,其本质虽非完全敌对,但对抗色彩十分明确而突出。虽然“该合作的合作、该对抗的对抗”,但对抗却是全方位的、全域型的、分道扬镳性的。西方抱团对俄罗斯实施制裁,将其逐出SWIFT系统,酝酿涵盖印太地区却排除中国的数字贸易协议、互联网协议、推动排除中俄的亚太新经济框架,欧日韩澳(大利亚)趋美抱团的阵势突出,拜登政府纠合的民主同盟也可能成为常态性的国际平台,“印太战略”的目标进一步聚集,外延也可能进一步扩大。

Second, the international power landscape has not changed, but the trend of the rise of the East and the decline of the West has slowed down. The current situation where the West is strong and the East is weak is hard to completely change in the short term. In the nearly 40 years from 1980 to 2018, the U.S. share of world GDP remained at around 25%. It could rise to around 32% in individual years such as 2000, but its overall share of the world’s GDP remained basically unchanged. Moreover, the gap between the United States and major powers such as Europe, Japan, and Russia is widening. Only China has narrowed its gap in economic size compared to the United States. The United States recently revised its statistical rules to include spending such as personal residential investment in its GDP, instantly increasing it by USD 1.5 trillion (equivalent to an economy close to the size of Russia). Emerging markets experienced a moment of collective rise, but their growth rates have slowed down in recent years. Since 2015, the size of the Russian economy under sanctions has shrunk further and the economies of South Africa and Brazil have declined sharply. The Russian economy may further contract this year and next, and China’s economic growth has slowed down. Only India is in relatively good condition. Since the global economic downturn in recent years is different from any previous one, and the COVID-19 pandemic has hindered the flow of factors, even if a stimulus policy is adopted, its effect is greatly reduced due to the constraints faced in its implementation. Moreover, the global spread of the pandemic has caused all countries to fall into a decline at the same time, so we lack the force of the rise of emerging economies that powered the recovery after the 2008 financial crisis. This outcome will slow down any potential changes to the global power landscape. Accounting for more than half of the global GDP calculated by market exchange rates, the West can maintain its dominant position in the global economy for some time.

其次,国际力量格局消长态势未变,但东升西降态势趋缓,西强东弱的现状短期内难以完全改变。从1980年到2018年的近40年内,美国的GDP占世界的比重一直维系在25%左右,个别年份如2000年上升到32%左右,但总体上占世界的比重基本处于不变状态,而且美国与欧、日、俄等大国的差距在加大,只有中国缩小了与美经济规模差距。美国最近修改统计规则,把个人住宅投资等纳入GDP,一下子增加了1.5万亿美元(等于接近俄罗斯的经济规模)。新兴市场曾有过集体性崛起的高光时刻,但近几年来增速都在趋缓。2015年以来,受到制裁的俄罗斯经济规模进一步萎缩,南非、巴西经济大幅下滑,俄罗斯经济今明两年可能进一步萎缩,中国经济增长有所放缓,只有印度状况较好。由于近几年全球经济下滑有别于以往任何一次,新冠疫情导致要素流动受阻,因此即使有刺激政策,但因落实起来面临的制约,效果也大打折扣。而且,疫情的全球蔓延,导致各国同步陷入下滑,缺乏2008年金融危机后新兴经济体群体崛起的带动性复苏力量。这种结果使得全球力量格局变化可能变得迟缓起来。按市场汇率计算的西方GDP超过世界一半,其在全球经济上的主导地位还可维持一段时间。

Third, the foundation of the international order has been shaken and the global governance deficit has increased, leaving serious vacancies. The United Nations sees the maintenance of world peace and development as its mission, but in terms of security, it cannot stop conflicts or even wars launched by major powers, and it is even more difficult for it to eliminate the root causes of wars. Over the years, the United Nations has failed to constrain the drive of hegemons to start wars and could not prevent the crisis in Ukraine. In addition, while investigating the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Nations was subject to occasional coercion from hegemonic countries. In the face of increasing global challenges, it is hard for the UN to gather a consensus, its decision-making efficiency is low, and differences have become more pronounced in the context of the Ukraine crisis. The lack of progress in the reform of the United Nations itself and the further weakening of political trust among major powers have cast a shadow over the prospect of the United Nations’ ability to jointly address challenges to humanity. On the issue of development, the trade war has damaged the foundation of symbiosis and mutual benefit among countries, and the formation of cliquish “small circles” (小圈子) has hindered policies for the international flow of factors of production and arrangement for the international economic, trade, and financial order.

再次,国际秩序基础动摇、全球治理赤字增多,缺位严重。联合国以维护世界和平与发展为已任,但在安全问题上,它既不能制止大国对外发动的冲突甚至战争,更难以消除战争根源。多年来,联合国既未能制止霸权国家的战争冲动,也没能阻止乌克兰危机的发生。此外,在调查新冠肺炎疫情起源问题上,联合国还不时受到霸权国家的胁迫。面对日益增多的全球性挑战,联合国共识难聚,决策效率低下,在乌克兰危机背景下分歧进一步扩大。联合国本身的改革止步不前,大国政治信任进一步削弱,都为联合国共同应对人类挑战的前景蒙上阴影。在发展问题上,贸易战损害了国家间共生互利的基础,拉帮结派的“小圈子化”阻碍了生产要素的政策国际流动以及国际经贸金融等秩序安排。

Finally, globalization has receded, liberalism has retreated, power politics have returned, and the global security situation has become more severe. Driven by globalization, decades of global development and prosperity have been achieved, and late-developing countries have seized the opportunity to develop and rise, relatively “eroding” the advantages of the West. Industrial outsourcing, wealth polarization, class antagonism, and other factors have provoked a wave of populism across Europe and North America, and anti-globalization, xenophobia, nationalism, unilateralism, and the supremacy of national interests have re-emerged. The “you lose, I win” zero-sum thinking and the “the strong eat the weak” law of the jungle are increasingly exposed. Liberalism has been replaced by realism, and this has even become the basic political demand in Western countries.

最后,全球化退潮,自由主义隐退,强权政治回归,世界安全形势更趋严峻。在全球化驱动下,数十年的世界发展与繁荣得以实现,亦使后发国家抓住机遇努力发展崛起,相对“侵蚀”了西方的优势。产业外包、贫富分化、阶级对立等等,激起民粹主义浪潮在欧洲和北美汹涌澎湃,反全球化、排外主义、民族主义、单边主义、国家利益至上再度兴起,你输我赢的零和思维及弱肉强食的丛林法则日益暴露,自由主义被现实主义所取代,甚至成为西方国家的基本的政治诉求。

Under the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economies of various countries have further declined, and the economic expectations of the world and different countries have been repeatedly lowered. In addition, under the influence of the retreat of globalization, the difficult economic situation cannot be completely improved in the short term and the lives of people in all countries have become more difficult. The influence of the economic downturn has extended to the political and social fields, which means it is more likely that economic conflicts will evolve into social and political conflicts, or may even rise to the level of political conflicts. In all countries, the space for compromise with other countries will be further narrowed, and there will be a larger market for hard-line tendencies. Provocation and counter-provocation, repression and counter-repression, isolation and counter-isolation, sanctions and countersanctions, and deterrence and counter-deterrence between countries are being gradually manifested at different levels. Hegemonic countries adjust their military strategies, expand their military alliances, and strengthen their military machinery against other major powers, NATO may further encroach on areas outside its traditional regions, and the politicization and securitization of everything is ubiquitous. These trends all show that, given the prevalence of power politics, it is impossible to have a world with secure borders. It was once thought that war between major powers was unimaginable, but no major power has ever committed to renouncing the use of force. Moreover, with individual major powers using force to threaten or even invade other countries, history is repeating itself. Whether in the era of liberalism or in the era of realism, the threat of war never retreated, and various types of games that countries can engage in such as cyber warfare, financial warfare, trade warfare, and public opinion warfare have also intensified.

新冠肺炎疫情下,各国经济进一步下滑,世界及各国经济预期被一再下调,加之受全球化退潮影响,经济困难局面短期内难以完全改善,各国民生更为艰难,经济下滑的影响延伸到政治社会领域,即经济矛盾演变为社会政治矛盾可能性增大,甚至可能上升至政治冲突层面,各国对外妥协空间进一步收窄,强硬倾向则有更大市场。国家之间的挑衅与反挑衅、压制与反压制、孤立与反孤立、制裁与反制裁、威慑与反威慑等等,在不同层面逐渐表现出来。霸权国家针对其他大国的军事战略调整、军事同盟扩大、军事机器强化,北约可能进一步染指传统区域以外的图谋,泛政治化、泛安全化等乱象随处可见,这些都表明强权政治盛行下,不可能是一个有安全边界的世界。人们曾经认定,大国之间的战争难以想像,但从未有一个大国承诺过放弃使用武力;而且,个别大国使用武力威胁甚至入侵其他国家的历史一再上演。无论在自由主义风行的时代,还是在现实主义占主导的时代,战争的威胁从未退隐,网络战、金融战、贸易战和舆论战等各种形式的博弈亦愈演愈烈。

China’s Answer to Challenges

应对挑战的中国答案

On July 6, 2021, President Xi Jinping, in his keynote speech at the CCP and World Political Party Summit, stated: “Today, human society is once again at a crossroads in history. Will it be hostile confrontation or mutual respect? Will it be closed-off decoupling or open cooperation? Will it be zero-sum games or mutual benefit? This choice rests on our shoulders.” At a moment when human security is at stake, President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at this year’s Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. In order to promote the common security of the world, he systematically proposed a global security initiative with the “Six Commitments, ” such as “staying committed to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security and jointly maintaining world peace and security,” as the main points. This is a brand-new initiative presented to the world following the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and the Global Development Initiative. It is also a targeted initiative proposed under the conditions of complex changes in the international situation and the overlapping of various security challenges. It is related to the future stability, peace, and development of the world and demonstrates the feelings for humanity, global responsibility, and international responsibility of a rising power.

2021年7月6日,习近平主席在中国共产党与世界政党领导人峰会上的主旨讲话指出:“今天,人类社会再次面临何去何从的历史当口,是敌视对立还是相互尊重?是封闭脱钩还是开放合作?是零和博弈还是互利共赢?选择就在我们肩上。”在一个攸关人类安全与共的时刻,习近平主席在今年博鳌亚洲论坛年会上发表主旨演讲,为了促进世界安危与共,系统提出“要坚持共同、综合、合作、可持续的安全观,共同维护世界和平与安全”等“六个坚持”为要点的全球安全倡议,是继构建人类命运共同体、全球发展倡议之后为世界呈现的一个全新倡议,也是在国际局势复杂变化,各种安全挑战叠加的时局下提出的一个有针对性的倡议,关系到未来世界稳定、和平与发展,彰显一个崛起大国的人类情怀、全球担当与国际责任感。

The international situation is in a time of turmoil, and the implementation of the Global Security Initiative is even more urgent and imperative. China is vigorously advocating the Global Security Initiative and promoting its better implementation at the global level. It must maintain sufficient strategic clear-headedness, be familiar with and master unusual international exchanges and ways of doing things, and calmly respond to a variety of increasingly complex challenges.

国际变局风雨如晦,全球安全倡议的落实更显得刻不容缓,势在必行。中国大力弘扬全球安全倡议,推动该倡议在全球层面上更好地落实,必须保持足够的战略清醒,熟悉并掌握不同寻常的国际交往、处事方式,从容应对日趋复杂的各种挑战。

First, we must maintain the independence of national image and policies. Since its founding, New China has been respected by the world as a major power. This is because it is a major power that takes an independent stand and can play a special role in international affairs. At a time when some major powers are seeing a rise in the tendencies of unilateralism, selfishness, profit-seeking, and nationalism, China has risen in the world as an independent force. First, as a powerful force for peace and development, it is even more valuable and important. If China’s strength grows by one point, the forces of peace will increase by one point, and the impetus for development will also increase by one point. We need to develop regional or international multilateral mechanisms that consolidate cooperation, openness, inclusivity, reciprocity, and mutual support and fly the flag of unequivocal opposition to group politics as our basic stance in the face of a world being divided into blocs and camps. China does not conform to, avoid, or worry about confrontational competition. We insist on strategic confidence and face up to the unavoidable competitive nature among countries. At the same time, we seek to engage in constructive exchanges with the United States and Western countries as far as possible. In the face of confrontational political or military “small circles,” we must make efforts to develop and deepen cooperation in areas of overlapping interests.

一要保持国家形象与政策的独立性。新中国自成立起作为一个大国被世界尊重,就在于新中国是一个有着独立自主立场、能够在国际事务中发挥特殊作用的大国。在一些大国单边主义、利己主义、逐利主义、民族主义倾向上升的时下,中国作为一个独立的力量崛起于世界,首先是作为一个有份量的和平力量和发展力量,更显弥足珍贵与重要。中国的力量壮大一分,和平的力量就会增大一分,发展的动力也会增强一分。我们要发展巩固合作开放、包容互惠、相互支持的区域性或国际多边机制,旗帜鲜明地反对集团政治是我们面对集团化、阵营化世界的基本立场。中国不迎合、不回避也不担心对抗性竞争,坚持战略自信,正视国家间难以回避的竞争性;同时尽可能寻求与美西方国家建设性交往。面对对抗性的政治或军事“小圈子”,也要努力寻求在交叉领域开展和深化合作。

Second, we must coordinate development and security. The future international economic environment may be very different from that of the past. Globalization is retreating, the risk of geopolitical games is rising, there is a significant trend of some countries “decoupling” and “breaking ties” with China, and the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound and far-reaching impact on the global economy. While saying goodbye to the era of surging globalization, we must correctly deal with the aftermath and eliminate the problems it leaves behind, while simultaneously striving to promote a new type of globalization. We must continue to advocate multilateralism, jointly promote cooperation in global development, and prevent the economic difficulties of developing countries from becoming social and security issues. Development is the premise, but security is the guarantee. Without security, development is nullified. Therefore, we must seek secure development, closely intertwine development and security, strengthen risk awareness and bottom-line thinking, actively anticipate risks, and strive to resolve them.

二要统筹发展与安全。未来国际经济环境或将大不同以往,全球化退潮,地缘政治博弈风险趋升,一些国家对华“脱钩”“断链”趋势明显,新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济影响深远。在告别高歌猛进的全球化时代的同时,我们需要做好善后,消除其留下的问题,同时努力推动新型全球化。继续倡导多边主义,共促全球发展合作,避免发展中国家经济困难演化成社会和安全问题。发展是前提,安全是保障,没有安全,发展等于归零,因此,我们要寻求有安全的发展,要把发展与安全紧紧扭在一起,强化风险意识、底线思维,积极预判风险,努力予以化解。

Third, we must give priority to operations in neighboring countries [周边] and make strategic spatial reliance stronger and more robust. From the perspective of industrial chain security, although the unlimited extension of the industrial chain can dilute production costs, this makes it difficult to resolve the dangers related to industrial security and even national security. Therefore, neighboring countries should become an important area for chain supplementing and chain building. We must truly make our neighboring countries the outer edge of the internal circulation and the frontier of external circulation. In the process of unifying the large domestic market, we must strive to align with neighboring countries, expand imports from neighboring countries, increase investment in neighboring countries, and enhance the radiation of China’s geo-economic influence. We must allow the fruits of China’s economic growth to benefit neighboring countries in a more in-depth, numerous, and wide-ranging manner and promote the building of a community with a shared future for neighboring countries.

三要优先经营周边,做厚做强战略空间依托。从产业链安全而言,产业链的无限延伸虽可摊薄生产成本,但难以化解产业安全甚至国家安全之虞,因此周边应该成为补链、建链的重要地带,真正使周边成为内循环的外沿,外循环的前沿,在统一国内大市场过程中努力与周边对接,扩大从周边国家的进口,增大对周边国家的投资,增强中国地缘经济辐射力。让中国经济增长的成果更深更广更多地惠及周边地区,推动构建周边命运共同体。

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Cite This Page

傅梦孜 (Fu Mengzi). "Global Security Initiative: China's Answer to Challenges [全球安全倡议: 应对挑战的中国答案]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in China Foundation for International Studies [中国国际问题研究基金会], September 6, 2022

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