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Research on National Food Security Strategy in the Context of “Dual Circulation”


Experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences argue China’s domestic supply of agricultural commodities is insufficient and import sources are too geographically concentrated. In great detail, the authors advance recommendations to make China’s food supply more resilient, secure, and green. Among other suggestions, they advocate improving the application of advanced technology to the farming sector, reconciling geographical gaps between concentration of inputs (such as water) and farmland, diversifying sourcing toward countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and improving waste utilization.

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I.       Introduction


Food concerns the national economy and people’s livelihood, and food security is an important foundation for national security. 1 With the proposal of the new food security concept of “basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple grains” (谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全) and the in-depth implementation of the strategy of “sustainable farmland use and innovative application of agricultural technology” (藏粮于地、藏粮于技), China’s overall grain production capacity has been significantly improved, and China’s level of food security has been greatly strengthened. It should also be noted that while China’s grain production has been increasing year after year, problems are becoming increasingly evident in terms of “taking over superior land for non-agriculture usage while compensating for it with low-quality land” (占优补劣) in utilizing land resources, serious loss of grain-planting labor force, structural imbalance between supply and demand in different grain varieties, and non-point source pollution caused by residues of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. With the impact of deglobalization and intensified geopolitical conflicts, the world’s grain production capacity and trade balance have been disrupted, and overall food security problems have become more serious. 2

粮食事关国计民生,粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础。随着“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全” 新食物安全观的提出以及“藏粮于地、藏粮于技” 战略的深入实施,我国粮食综合产能得到了显著提升,粮食安全水平取得了显著提高。也要注意到, 在我国粮食连年增收的同时,诸如耕地资源“占优补劣”、种粮劳动力严重流失、粮食品种结构供需 失衡、化肥农药残留导致面源污染等问题凸显;在逆全球化、地缘冲突加剧的冲击下,世界粮食产能和贸易平衡被打破,整体性的粮食安全问题更趋严峻。

Building a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay and promoting the interplay between domestic and international economic engagement (“dual circulation”) is a major measure for China to actively address the uncertainty of the world economy and global landscape, as well as a way to provide new development paths for ensuring national food security. Taking the perspective of “dual circulation”, a series of studies have been conducted around the necessity of ensuring food security, the challenges faced in ensuring food security, and the development path on this front: China is a country with a large population, and ensuring food security is an important prerequisite for achieving economic growth and social stability; 3 in the context of “dual circulation”, China has maintained close cooperation with the international agricultural product market, but problems such as shortages of water and land resources, high grain production costs, low economic benefits, limited space for increasing output, the imbalance between grain supply and demand, and high external dependence still exist.4 We propose countermeasures including improving the institutional support system for food security, focusing on improving domestic production, deepening supply-side reforms for grain, and forging a stable trade channel for grain imports. 5

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进(“双循环”)的新发展格局,是我国积极应对世界经济与形势不确定性的重大举措,为保障 国家粮食安全提供了新的发展方向。从“双循环” 视角出发,围绕确保粮食安全的必要性、保障粮食 安全面临的挑战、粮食安全发展路径等课题已经开 展了一系列研究:我国是人口大国,保障粮食安全 是国家实现经济增长、社会稳定的重要基石;在 “双循环”背景下我国与国际农产品市场保持了紧 密合作,但水土资源紧缺、粮食成本高、种植效益 低、增产空间有限、粮食供需失衡、对外依存度偏 高等问题依然存在;提出了完善粮食安全制度保 障体系、坚持抓好国内生产、深化粮食供给侧结构性改革、 构建粮食进口贸易稳定路径等应对策略。

The author believes that when it comes to food security issues under the new development pattern of “dual circulation”, it is necessary to comprehensively grasp the current situation of national food security, identify the correlation between building a food security system and the opportunities in developing the “dual circulation” pattern, design strategic paths and action plans for food security from multiple perspectives and unswervingly follow the roadmap for food security with Chinese characteristics. This paper focuses on demonstrating the need to form a national food development strategy from perspectives of food production resource security, variety structure security, and ecological security, so as to provide a reference for ensuring national food security.

笔者认为,针对“双循环”新发展格局下的粮食安全问题研究,需要全面掌握当前国家粮食安全的基本形势,明确粮食安全体系构建与“双循环” 发展契机的关联,进而多角度、全方位地寻求粮食安全战略路径与行动方案,坚定不移走好中国特色粮食安全之路。本文着重从粮食生产资源安全、品种结构安全、生态环境安全等方面论证形成国家粮食发展战略路径, 以为保障国家粮食安全提供参考。

II.     Basic Landscape for National Food Security in the Context of “Dual Circulation”


(i)     The Gap Between Grain Supply and Demand is Widening, and the Volume of Imported Feed Grain is Rising


In recent years, China’s grain import volume has grown rapidly, and the risk of agriculture supply being placed in a “stranglehold position” has increased. In order to objectively reflect China’s actual food security landscape from 2000 to 2022, the article has collected grain import and export data exclusively from the General Administration of Customs, and data such as grain output and cropland area are from the National Bureau of Statistics. China’s grain imports increased from 1.36×107 tons in 2000 to 1.47×108 tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 11.44%. Over the same period, China’s food self-sufficiency rate dropped from 93.6% in 2000 to 82.4% in 2022. In terms of feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley), driven by the rising consumption demand for livestock products, China’s demand for feed grains continued to grow, the gap between supply and demand continued to expand, and import dependence showed a rigid uptick. In 2000, the cropland of feed grains rapidly increased from 3.59×108 mu (1 mu≈666.7 m2) to a peak of 6.87×108 mu in 2015, dropping again to 6.65×108 mu in 2021. Feed grain output increased from 1.11×108 in 2000 to 2.77×108 t in 2021. In 2021, the net import volume was 5.02×107 t, and the external dependence rate reached 15.35%. Among these changes, the trend of change for corn’s cropland and yield is consistent with the overall trends for feed grain. The total output of corn rapidly increased from 1.06×108 t in 2000 to 2.65×108 t in 2015, before falling back down due to the impact of corn destocking and returning to 2.73×108 t in 2021. The net export volume of corn was approximately 1.05×107 t in 2000.  This turned into a net import in 2010, with the net import volume increasing rapidly after 2019 to reach 2.84×107 t in 2021, an external trade dependence rate of 9.42%.

近年来,我国粮食进口量快速增长,被“卡脖子”的风险隐患加大。为客观体现我国 2000—2022 年粮食安全的实际情况,本文中提及的粮食进出口数据均来源于海关总署,粮食产量、播种面积等数据均来源于国家统计局。我国粮食进口量从2000 年的1.36×107 t 增加至2022 年的1.47×108 t,年均增幅为11.44%;粮食自给率也从2000 年的93.6% 降至2022 年的82.4%。在饲料粮(玉米、高粱、大麦)方面,受畜产品消费需求带动,国内饲料粮需求持续增长,供需缺口不断扩大,进口依赖呈刚性增长态势。2000 年饲料粮的播种面积由3.59×108亩(1 亩≈666.7 m2)迅速增长到2015 年的峰值6.87×108 亩,在2021 年下降至6.65×108 亩;饲料粮产量由2000 年的1.11×108 t 增长到2021 年的2.77×108 t,2021 年净进口量为5.02×107 t,对外依存度高达15.35%。其中, 玉米播种面积和单产变化趋势与饲料粮总体变动趋势一致,总产量由2000 年的1.06×108 t 迅速增长至2015 年 2.65×108 t,其后受玉米去库存影响有所回落,而在2021 年又恢复到2.73×108   t;2000 年玉米净出口量约为 1.05×107 t, 2010 年后转为净进口, 2019 年后净进口量迅速增长且在2021 年达2.84×107 t, 对外贸易依存度为9.42%。

(ii)     Soybean Cropland Area and Output Growth have Stagnated, and Dependence on Foreign Countries Remains High


Since 2000, soybeans have become an important source of edible oil and feed ingredients. As the consumer demand for edible oil and meat continues to grow, soybean demand has remained high and continues to increase, and soybean imports have also been rising rapidly. In 2000, China had a total cropland for soybeans of approximately 1.4×108 mu. Impacted by the relatively low profitability of domestic planting and the lower price of soybeans from abroad, the cropland for soybeans continued to decline, falling to its lowest level of 1.02×108 mu in 2015. Since then, as the state has increased support for the soybean industry, the cropland has increased, rising to 1.54×108 mu in 2022. In terms of soybean output, soybean per-unit yield has shown a slow and fluctuating growth trend, from 110.4 kg/mu in 2000 to 131.69 kg/mu in 2022. Similar to the trend of change in cropland area, total soybean output fell from 1.54×107 t in 2000 to its low point of 1.236×10 7 t in 2015. It then saw a volatile rebound, reaching 2.028×107 t in 2022. In terms of the soybean trade, China’s net import volume of soybeans rapidly increased from 1.02×107 t in 2000 to a peak of 1×108 t. In 2021, affected by the income deficit of pressed oil companies and pig breeders, the demand for soybeans decreased, leading net imports of soybeans to have fallen to 9.65×107 tons. China’s external dependence rate for soybeans increased from 39.84% in 2000 to 85.47% in 2021. Due to the increase in domestic soybean production, foreign dependence fell to 81.78% in 2022, but the risk remained to be high.

2000 年以后,大豆作为食用油和饲料原料的重要来源,随着我国居民食用油、肉类需求的不断增长,需求量居高不下并持续增长,进而大豆进口量也快速增加。2000 年我国大豆的播种面积约为1.4×108 亩,之后受国内种植比较效益低及国外低价大豆的冲击,播种面积持续下降,2015 年跌至谷值1.02×108 亩。此后,随着国家对大豆产业加大扶持, 播种面积有所上升,2022 年回升至1.54×108 亩。在大豆产量方面,大豆单产呈缓慢波动式增长,由2000 年的110.4 kg/亩增长至2022 年的131.69 kg/亩;与播种面积变动趋势相似,大豆总产量由2000  年的1.54×107 t 跌到2015 年的谷值1.236×107 t,之后波动性回升, 2022 年达到 2.028×107 t。在大豆贸易方面,2000—2021 年大豆净进口量由 1.02×107 t 迅速增长至峰值1×108 t,2021 年受榨油企业和生猪养殖亏损的影响,大豆需求量下降进而导致大豆净进口量降为9.65×107。我国大豆的对外依存度由2000 年的39.84% 升至2021 年的85.47%,2022 年由于国内大豆增产而使对外依存降低至 81.78%,但风险仍然很高。

(iii)    The Consumption Structure of Chinese Residents is Rapidly Changing, and the Supply-Demand Imbalance of Protein Feed Supply is Escalating


The consumption level of Chinese residents continues to increase, and the demand for meat, eggs, milk, and other proteins has been increasing rapidly, causing a substantial increase in demand for feed. In terms of the grain consumption structure, the proportion of edible grains has continued to decrease, and the proportion of feed grains has increased significantly. In 2021, China’s per capita consumption of meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products was 69.6 kg, 24.1 kg, 42.5 kg, and 22.8 kg respectively. Subtracting the losses and inedible parts along the entire production chain, the per capita animal protein consumption is still 37.7 g/d, which is five times higher than the 6.5 g/d in 1978, and is 13.7% higher than the average global consumption level and 29.5% higher than the average level in Asia. Specifically, per capita pork consumption increased from 13.3 kg in 2000 to 26.9 kg in 2022, an increase of 102.2%. The upgrade of residents’ consumption structure has put more pressure on China’s feed grain supply shortage. In particular, raw materials for protein feed need to be imported in large quantities. The sharp increase in external dependence has become a bottleneck restricting the high-quality development of China’s livestock industry.

我国居民消费水平不断升级,对肉、蛋、奶等蛋白需求快速增加,拉动了饲料消费需求的大幅增加,在粮食消费结构上表现为食用粮食的占比不断下降,饲用粮食的占比明显增长。2021 年, 我国肉、蛋、奶、水产品的人均消费量分别为69.6 kg、24.1 kg、42.5 kg、22.8 kg,减去全产业链的损耗及不可食部分,人均动物蛋白消费量依然为37.7 g/d,较1978 年的6.5 g/d 增长了近5 倍,与世界、亚洲的平均消费水平相比分别高出了13.7%、29.5%。其中,人均猪肉消费量从2000 年的13.3 kg 增加至2022 年的26.9 kg,增幅为102.2%。居民消费结构的升级致使我国饲料粮供给缺口增大,尤其是饲料蛋白原料需要大量进口,对外依存度陡增已成为制约我国畜牧业高质量发展的瓶颈。

(iv)    Shortage of Water and Land Resources for Grain Production, and the Fixed Constraints in Environmental Endowments have Become Increasingly Evident


The situation for the protection of cultivated land and water resources in China is severe. Looking at cultivated land resources, the problems of degradation, acidification, and salinization of traditionally advantageous cultivated land resources are prominent. There are also serious problems of soil compaction and soil erosion. The issue of the thinning cultivatable land in major grain-producing areas is also serious. The continued expansion of the urban population has further intensified the conflict between the supply and demand of construction land and cropland. 6 In addition, the extensive use of cultivated land not only reduces the efficiency of production elements and intensifies non-point source pollution of the soil, but also further increases the risk of land desertification (土地沙化) and general desertification (荒漠化), posing severe challenges to the low-carbon and green transformation of Chinese agriculture. In 2022, the fertilizer and pesticide utilization rates for China’s three major food crops – rice, wheat, and corn –were 41.3% and 41.8% respectively, lower than the rates in other countries and regions including the United States and Europe. 7 Looking at water resources, China’s water resources distribution is not aligned with its grain production capacity. The northern region accommodates 18.8% of the country’s water resources, while the southern region accounts for 81.2%. However, the center of gravity of China’s crop structure is moving northward year by year. At the same time, the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in China is lower than the level of 0.7 to 0.8 in developed countries. The extensive and inefficient water usage for irrigation has exacerbated water shortages. 8 Over the long term, as hard constraints of resources and the environment tighten themselves, China must maintain a fragile balance between food supply and demand.

我国耕地和水资源保护形势严峻。从耕地资源来看,传统优势耕地资源的退化、酸化、盐碱化问题突出,还存在严重的土壤板结、水土流失问题, 粮食主产区的农田耕层变浅问题也较为严重。城镇人口的持续扩张进一步加剧了建设用地和耕地间的供需矛盾。此外,粗放式的耕地利用方式不仅降 低了生产要素利用率、加剧了土壤面源污染,还进一步增加了土地沙化、荒漠化风险,给我国农业低碳、绿色转型带来严峻挑战。2022 年,我国水稻、小麦、玉米三大粮食作物的化肥和农药利用率分别为41.3% 和 41.8%,低于美国、欧洲等国家和地区。从水资源方面来看,我国的水资源分布与粮食产能不匹配,北方地区的水资源量占全国的 18.8%, 南方地区则占81.2%,而种植结构重心却在逐年北 移。同时,我国农田灌溉水有效利用系数低于发达国家 0.7~0.8 的水平,粗放、低效的灌溉用水方式加剧了水资源短缺。长期来看,资源环境硬约 束趋紧, 我国粮食供需仍将处于脆弱的紧平衡状态。

II.     Major Challenges and Risks Facing China’s Food Security in the Context of “Dual Circulation”


(i)      Major Challenges Facing Food Security


  1. Large Domestic Feed Grain Supply Shortage, Concentrated Import Sources of Raw Materials for Protein Feed, and Difficulty in Finding Alternatives
  1. 饲料粮国内供给缺口大,饲用蛋白原料进口源集中,国内替代难

First, domestic supply of feed grains in China is insufficient. The majority of raw materials for protein feed need to be imported, and high external dependence has become a prominent shortcoming in ensuring China’s food security. China’s protein feed raw materials are mainly soybean meal, but China’s self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is less than 20% and soybean meal is heavily dependent on imports. In 2022, the soybean import volume was 9.11×107 t, accounting for 62% of total grain imports.

一是当前我国饲料粮的国内供给存在较大缺口,大部分饲料蛋白原料需要进口,对外依存度高成为保障我国粮食安全的突出短板。我国饲料蛋白原料以豆粕为主,但大豆自给率不足20%,豆粕严重依赖进口。2022 年, 大豆进口量为 9.11×107 t, 占粮食进口总量的62%。

Second, import sources for China’s protein feed raw material are relatively concentrated, mainly from countries such as Brazil, the United States, Argentina, Peru, and Canada, and there exists certain supply chain risks. In 2021, the amount of protein feed raw materials (mainly soybeans) imported by China from Brazil was 5.81×107 t, accounting for 60.3% of total soybean imports, and the equivalent protein amount is approximately 2.04×107 t. The amount of protein feed raw materials (soybeans, soybean meal, meat and bone meal, and fish meal) imported from the United States was 3.26×107 t, with an equivalent protein amount of 1.15×107 t. The amount of protein feed raw materials (soybeans) imported from Argentina was 3.75×106 t, accounting for 3.9% of total soybean imports, with an equivalent protein amount of 1.32×106 t (see Figure 1). Under the impact of the current increase in international trade risks, it is no longer possible to ensure the security of the feed grain supply chain simply by relying on international trade.

二是我国饲料蛋白原料进口源较为集中,主要在巴西、美国、阿根廷、秘鲁、加拿大等国家,存在一定的供应链风险。2021 年,我国从巴西进口的饲料蛋白原料(主要为大豆)量为5.81×107 t,占大豆进口总量的60.3%,折合蛋白量约为2.04×107 t;从美国进口的饲料蛋白原料(大豆、豆粕、肉骨粉和鱼粉)量为3.26×107 t,折合蛋白量为1.15×107 t;从阿根廷进口的饲料蛋白原料(大豆)量为3.75×106 t, 占大豆进口总量的3.9%,折合蛋白量为1.32×106 t(见图1)。受目前国际贸易风险加大的影响,单纯依靠国际大循环已难以保障饲料粮的供应链安全。

Figure 1 Source Countries and Import Volumes of Protein Feed Raw Materials in 2021
图1 2021 年饲用蛋白原料进口来源国及进口量

Third, in terms of protein raw materials, alternatives for domestic feed currently face many difficulties. Problems such as the difficulty in the efficient utilization and industrialization of fermented feed, subpar application maturity of utilizing waste residue resources, prominent safety issues in converting leftover food into feed, the lack of systematic planning for the utilization of insect proteins, lack of commercialization precedents of bacterial protein fermented with one-carbon-atom gas, and the lack of bacteria varieties for yeast-based biological feed have hindered the effective substitution of domestic protein feed raw materials.


  1. Imbalanced Growth for Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, as well as Demand-Resource Mismatch in Regions
  1. 种养结构不平衡,区域资源承载不匹配

First, the planting structure is unbalanced. At present, China’s staple grain has a high degree of security, but there has been a large shortage of feed grains. China’s feed grain deficit will be 9.04×107 t in 2025 and 8.2×107 t in 2030, and its protein feed gap will be 5.87×107 t in 2025 and 6.05×107 t in 2030. There is a shortage of high-quality forage such as whole-plant silage corn, forage oats, annual ryegrass, and alfalfa. The shortage of high-quality forage will be 5.71×107 t in 2025 and 3.59×107 t in 2030.

一是种植结构不平衡。目前我国口粮的保障度较高,但饲料粮存在较大的缺口。2025 年、2030 年, 我国饲料粮缺口分别为9.04×107 t、8.2×107 t,蛋白饲料缺口分别为 5.87×107 t、6.05×107 t。全株青贮玉米、饲用燕麦、多花黑麦草、苜蓿等优质牧草紧缺,2025、2030 年的优质牧草缺口分别为5.71×107 t、3.59×107 t。

Second, the livestock product and animal husbandry structure are unbalanced, with grain-fed pigs and poultry as the mainstay and grass-fed livestock (cattle and sheep) accounting for only a small proportion. Pork and poultry production have always accounted for more than 80% of total meat output, while the proportion of grass-fed livestock has remained around only 20%. Pork consumption accounts for 50% to 60% of the total meat consumption. China’s per capita pork consumption is twice the global per capita pork consumption.

二是畜产品养殖结构不平衡,以粮饲型的猪禽为主,草食畜(牛、羊)占比小。猪肉和禽肉产量占肉类总产量的比重始终在80% 以上,草食畜的占比仅维持在20% 左右。猪肉的消费量占整个肉类消费总量的 50%~60%,我国人均猪肉消费量是世界人均猪肉消费量的2 倍。

Third, the grain production and animal husbandry industries are not aligned with the bearing capacity of regional resources. The spatial layout of grain production does not match the bearing capacity of water and soil resources. The center of gravity of China’s grain production continues to move northward and is becoming concentrated in northern areas with less water and more land. This has intensified the spatial mismatch between grain production and water and soil resources. The flow of grain has changed from going “south to north” to “north to south.” 9 China’s water, sunlight, and heat resources are more abundant in the south and less abundant in the north. The production overload on water and land resources in the main grain-producing areas of Northeast and North China has aggravated the current water crisis in the North and triggered a series of functional degradation and environmental problems. Grain planting cycles in major grain-producing areas in the South have slowed down from two harvests a year or three harvests a year to only one harvest a year, resulting in insufficient utilization of sunlight, heat, water, and soil resources. Looking at the regional layout of the grain production industry, as well as the livestock and poultry husbandry industry, the spatial layout of animal husbandry and grain production has been mismatched. The center of gravity of China’s feed grain production has moved northward. Feed resources are scarcer in the South, especially southern China, but it is an area favorable for poultry husbandry, with a higher advantage index than other regions. The proportion of farmers engaged in both grain production and animal husbandry is relatively low, and not many farmers have signed the accommodation agreement to use livestock and poultry manure for developing the grain production industry. The Northeast region is rich in feed grain resources and has strong livestock and poultry manure accommodation capabilities. However, it has a small population and a small market for livestock products, so its livestock and poultry husbandry industry is underdeveloped. There is a shortage of feed grain along the southeastern coast, but it has a dense population, an immense market for livestock and poultry products, well-developed livestock and poultry farming, and limited environmental bearing capacity.

三是种养产业与区域资源的承载不匹配。粮食生产的空间布局与水土资源承载不匹配,我国粮食生产重心不断北移,朝水少地多的北方地区聚集, 加剧了粮食生产与水土资源在空间上的错位,粮食流通已由“南粮北运”转变为“北粮南运”。我国的水、光、热资源南多北少,东北及华北粮食主产区的水土资源超负荷生产加重了北方当前的用水危机,引发了一系列的生态系统功能退化和环境问题;南方地区粮食主产区的粮食种植由一年两熟制、一年三熟制退化为一年一熟制,致使光、热、水、土资源未得到充分利用。从种植业与畜禽养殖业的区域布局来看,养殖与种植空间不匹配。我国饲料粮的种植重心北移,南方尤其是华南地区的饲料资源较为缺乏,却是家禽养殖的优势区,优势指数高于其他地区。从事种植业的农户同时从事养殖业的比重较低,通过签订消纳协议使用畜禽粪便发展种植业的规模较小。东北地区饲料粮资源丰富, 畜禽粪污消纳能力强,但人口少、畜产品市场小, 畜禽养殖业不发达。东南沿海饲料粮短缺,但人口密、畜禽产品市场大,畜禽养殖业发达,环境承载力有限。

  1. Many Restrictive Factors Exist for Combining Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, and it is Difficult to Promote Green and Healthy Animal Husbandry Models.
  1. 种养结合存在较多限制性因素,绿色健康养殖模式难推广

First, the proportion of farmers engaging in combined grain production and animal husbandry has dropped sharply, and their enthusiasm remains low. From 1986 to 2017, the proportion of farmers engaging in combined planting and animal husbandry in China dropped from 71.24% to 12.15%, the proportion of farmers engaged in only grain production increased rapidly from 25.6% to 56.63%, and the proportion of farmers raising farm animals stabilized at around 5.49%. Another large group of farmers has completely withdrawn from agricultural production of both planting and animal husbandry. 10

一是种养结合的农户比例急剧下降,积极性不高。1986—2017 年,我国种植业、养殖业相结合的农户占比从71.24% 降至12.15%;耕种农户占比快速上涨,由25.6% 上升至56.63%;饲养耕畜的农户稳定在5.49% 左右,另有大批农户已完全退出种植业、养殖业的农业生产。

Second, many standalone measures have been introduced for the development of the planting and animal husbandry industries, but the synergy produced by policy coordination is insufficient. In recent years, China has successively carried out projects such as the standardized construction of livestock farms, the construction of biogas projects, and the comprehensive reutilization of straw projects. Although these efforts have seen some initial successes, the overall results are not significant due to the lack of systematic design and policy coordination. For example, problems such as livestock and poultry manure pollution and the illegal burning of straw in rural areas are still prominent. 11


Third, the chain of stakeholders is incomplete and there is a lack of effective operating mechanisms for waste reutilization. Due to limitations in long-term operation mechanisms, such as unsatisfactory straw collection, storage, and transportation systems and difficulties in transferring biogas-generated power to the power grid, the comprehensive utilization of waste collected from the grain production and animal husbandry industries still has high product costs, low levels of commercialization, and low enthusiasm of participation among farmers. 12

三是利益链条不完整,缺乏废弃物利用的有效运营机制。由于长效运营机制不完善,如秸秆收 ‒ 储 ‒ 运体系不健全、沼气发电并网难等,导致种养业废弃物综合利用仍存在产品成本高、商品化率低、农民参与积极性低等问题。

  1. The Insufficient Resilience and Shock Tolerance of the Food Security System
  1. 粮食安全体系的韧性和抗冲击能力不足

First, the constraints of water and land resources on domestic grain production are tightening, farmers’ willingness to grow grain remains low, and capital investment is more inclined to non-agricultural industries. This has seriously threatened the stability of China’s grain supply and has put greater pressure on the continued growth of grain output.


Second, the supply chain of the international grain market is insufficiently resistant to risks, making it more difficult to ensure food security through the international market. When faced with sudden major risks, all major grain-producing countries may strictly control and reduce their grain exports, to ensure the bottom line of their own food security. China’s grain imports mainly rely on long-distance sea transportation, and in areas along the straits, frequent local conflicts can easily lead to supply chain disruptions. 13

二是国际粮食市场供应链的抗风险能力不足, 通过国际市场来保障粮食安全的难度加大。在遭遇突发重大风险时,各粮食主产国都以保障自身粮食为基本出发点,严控和减少粮食出口。我国粮食进口主要依靠海运,路途长,沿线海峡地区容易爆发局部性冲突,海运供应链容易被中断。

Third, investment in agricultural science and technology (S&T) is low, which undermines the supporting role of S&T for agriculture. China’s agricultural S&T investment intensity is only 0.66%, far lower than the industrial average of 2.23%. This is also far lower than that of developed countries such as Japan and the United States, and also substantially behind that of developing countries such as Brazil and Chile. The persistent low investment intensity in agricultural S&T has resulted in the lack of breakthroughs in agricultural S&T innovation and a serious insufficiency of support from S&T. This has made it difficult for grain production to break through the rigid constraints of insufficient water and land resources, which may undermine grain yield per unit area improvement and cause soaring production costs. In this sense, agricultural S&T did not effectively support improvements in grain production efficiency and profitability.

三是农业科技投入强度低,科技支撑作用不足。我国农业科技投入强度仅为0.66%,远低于全行业2.23% 的平均水平,而这也远低于日本、美国等发达国家,与巴西、智利等发展中国家也存在不小差距。农业科技投入强度长期偏低致使农业科技创新缺乏重大突破,科技支撑作用严重不足,粮食生产难以突破水土资源不足的刚性约束,粮食单产水平提升乏力、生产成本上涨迅速,未能有效支撑粮食生产效率和效益的提升。

Fourth, there is a lack of comprehensive emergency plans to deal with major risk impacts and ensure food security. In recent years, major public health events, natural disasters, regional conflicts, and other major emergencies have had a major impact on the food security system. It has also revealed that China has yet to establish comprehensive response schemes to protect food security during major risk events. It has also proved the urgent need to enhance the resilience of the food security system. 14


(ii)     Major Risks Facing Food Security


  1. Increasing Uncertainties in International Society Reveal the Potential Risk of Grain Trade and Core Technology Restrictions
  1. 国际局势不确定性加剧,引发粮食贸易与关键核心技术封锁风险

First, uncertainties in the global grain market have increased, driving up risks for China as it imports grains through the international market. Looking at overall global grain supply and demand, food security challenges mainly come from the grain trade and distribution system. The United States, the European Union, Russia, and other countries and regions account for a high proportion of total global grain outputs and exports. Due to increasing uncertainties of the international situation and other factors such as high dependence on imports for some agricultural products, highly concentrated sources of grain imports, relatively little diversity in transportation channels, and a weak voice power in the international food market, the possibility of China facing food security risks has further increased. 15


Second, the instability of the global landscape has also had a major impact on the trade of grain production elements such as oil and fertilizers. For example, due to geopolitical conflicts, the rise in international crude oil prices has led to an increase in the cost of agricultural machinery operations, which has had a significant negative impact on farmers’ enthusiasm for purchasing and using agricultural machinery, and particularly, it has imposed a strong impact on long-distance trans-regional machinery operation. 16 17


Third, affected by Sino-U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, the restrictions on core technologies related to grain production have escalated. At present, China has a high level of dependence on foreign sources for advanced agricultural machinery used during domestic agricultural production. Most of the chips for imported agricultural machinery and agricultural product processing equipment are supplied by foreign countries. High-end instruments such as cryo-genic electron microscopy machines, nuclear magnetic resonance facilities, mass spectrometry machines, and high-throughput sequencers are highly dependent on imports. If restrictions are placed on imports, this will constitute a critical constraint on China’s grain production and cutting-edge research on basic sciences.

三是受中美贸易摩擦以及地缘政治冲突影响, 与粮食生产有关的关键核心技术封锁加剧。目前国内农业生产中的大型农机对外依存度高,整机进口农机、农产品加工设备等的芯片多由国外提供,冷冻电镜、核磁共振、质谱仪、高通量测序等高端仪器高度依赖进口,若进口受限将对我国粮食生产和前沿基础研究构成关键性制约。

  1. Mismatch Between Grain Productivity and Resources Increases the Risk of Resource Overload in Major Production Areas
  1. 粮食生产力与资源生产力错配,主产区资源超载风险加剧

As the area of cultivated land decreases, the crisis of water resource shortage intensifies, and the center of grain production moves northwards, the problem has become increasingly alarming in terms of the mismatch between regional grain productivity and water and land resources. In particular, the risk of resource overload in the main grain-producing areas in the north has escalated. 18 First, the reduction in the area of cultivated land coupled with the degradation in land quality has limited the potential for increasing grain output. The area of cultivated land in China is declining. From 2009 to 2019, the area of cultivated land nationwide decreased by 1.13×108 mu. The cultivated land area in regions that are not major grain-production areas decreased by 8.33×108mu, with a decline (12.06%) much higher than that in the main grain-producing areas (2.2%). In addition, due to the excessive exploitation of cultivated land in major grain-producing areas, the quality of cultivated land has been significantly degraded. For example, the area of black soil in the northeast has decreased and the soil continues to become “thinner, shallower, and harder.” The organic matter in the soil has decreased by more than 30% relative to the amount 30 years ago, and the black soil layer dropped from 80 to 100 cm in thickness at the early stage of grain production to 20 to 30 cm.

在耕地数量减少、水资源短缺程度日益加重的背景下,随着粮食生产重心北移,区域间粮食生产力与水土资源生产力之间配置不平衡的问题更加凸显,尤其是北方粮食主产区的资源超载风险加剧。一是耕地数量减少叠加质量退化,限制了粮食增产潜力的发挥。我国耕地面积呈下降趋势,2009—2019 年全国耕地面积减少了13×108 亩;非粮食主产区的耕地面积减少了8.33×108亩,降幅(12.06%) 远高于粮食主产区(2.2%)。此外,粮食主产区的耕地由于过度开发利用,耕地质量退化明显,如东北黑土地的面积减少并不断“变瘦、变薄、变硬”,土壤有机质含量较30 年前降低了超过30%,黑土层由开垦初期的80~100 cm下降到20~30 cm。

Second, the total amount of water resources is insufficient and is misaligned with the spatial layout of grain production, which restricts the potential to increase grain output. Since the 1980s, the share of grain output produced in the southern region with abundant water and heat resources has been continuously declining, while the proportion of grain output in the northern region with serious water shortages has been continuously increasing. As the main grain-producing areas, the seven northern provinces (Heilongjiang, Henan, Shandong, Jilin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning) have on average accounted for only 10.84% of the country’s water resources over many years, but they occupied 50.91% of gross grain output in 2020. The shortage of water resources forced the northern region to significantly over-exploit its groundwater. The cumulative deficit caused by groundwater over-extraction in North China has reached 1.8×1011 m3 approximately, making the region the largest groundwater funnel (地下水漏斗区) area in the world. The overloading of water and land resources in major grain-producing areas poses major potential risks to ensure stable grain production.

二是水资源总量不足且与粮食生产空间布局不匹配制约了粮食增产潜力的发挥。20 世纪80 年代以来,水热资源丰富的南方地区粮食产量占比持续下降,而水资源严重不足的北方地区粮食产量占比不断提高。北方7 省份(黑龙江、河南、山东、吉林、河北、内蒙古、辽宁)作为粮食主产区,多年平均水资源量仅占全国的10.84%,但2020 年的粮食产量占比却达50.91%。水资源短缺导致北方地区不得不大量超采地下水,其中华北地区地下水超采累计亏空约1.8×1011 m3,形成了世界上最大的地下水漏斗区。粮食主产区水土资源超载对确保粮食稳定生产带来了潜在的重大风险。

  1. Low Grain Production Profitability Dampens Farmers’ Enthusiasm for Growing Crops
  1. 粮食生产效益低,农户种粮积极性受挫

First, the insufficient scaled effects in crop production lead to insufficient motivation and reproduction capacity among farmers during grain production. China’s status quo and agricultural conditions entail that small farmers will be the basic entities in the Chinese agricultural structure for a long time. For example, there are currently 230 million farming households in the country, and the average cultivated land area per household is 7.8 mu, showing little potential to achieve economies of scale. Second, due to the double-sided pressure of grain prices and the cost “floor,” the potential to increase grain profitability is limited. As an important commodity for the people’s livelihood, the price of grain has long been predominantly held stable and it is subject to the “ceiling” of low international food prices, so there is limited room for domestic grain prices to rise. However, the increase in costs of agricultural materials, land, and labor has driven up the overall cost of food production. For example, the average total cost per mu for the three major staple foods of rice, corn, and wheat increased from 936.42 yuan in 2012 to 1,143.73 yuan in 2020. Net profits from grain production showed an overall downward trend from 2012 to 2020, and the average profit margins of wheat, corn, and soybeans were all negative from 2016 to 2020. For the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s grain production costs will remain high, net profits will remain near zero, and the gap in benefits between growing grains and cash crops, as well as between grain cultivation and migrant working will grow even wider, and the pressure to ensure that “neither party suffers losses” (两个不吃亏, the two parties are farmers and agricultural counties) in grain production will persist.

一是规模效益缺乏导致粮食生产内生动力和再生产能力不足。我国的国情和农情决定了在相当长时期内小农户是我国农业经营的基本主体,如全国现有2.3亿农户,户均耕地面积为7.8亩,规模效益缺乏。二是受粮价和成本“地板”双重挤压,种粮收益的提升受限。粮食作为重要民生商品,价格始终以稳定为主,且受限于国际低粮价的“天花板”, 国内粮食价格上涨空间有限。但农资、土地、人工费用的上涨使粮食生产成本上涨,如水稻、玉米、小麦三大主粮每亩的平均总成本由2012 年的936.42 元增至2020 年的1143.73 元。2012—2020 年粮食生产净利润整体呈现波动下降趋势,且在2016—2020 年小麦、玉米和大豆的平均利润率均为负值。“十四五”时期,我国粮食生产成本仍将保持高位,净利润将维持在零值附近,粮食与经济作物、种粮与外出务工的效益差距将进一步扩大,粮食生产“两个不吃亏”的保障压力持续存在。

  1. Frequent Occurrences of Natural and Biological Disasters Have Increased Food Production Risks
  1. 自然灾害和生物灾害多发重发,粮食生产风险加大

At present, global warming continues its progress and extreme weather events occur frequently. The accompanying secondary disasters as well as pests and diseases will further increase the risk of production losses. First, climate warming will increase the risk of crop yield reduction. It is expected that, by the end of the 21st century, climate change will reduce the yield of major crops by 1% to 3% every 10 years, with corn production decreasing by approximately 2.3%, soybean production by about 3.3%, and wheat and rice production decreasing by approximately 1.3% and 0.7%. Second, climate warming will lead to more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting extreme weather events such as extreme heat, precipitation, and drought in more regions around the world. It is expected that, by the end of the 21st century, the probability of severe drought in the northern, northeastern, and southern regions of China will increase by 25% or more. Third, more regions will suffer from crop diseases and pests with higher frequency due to climate warming. Pathogen groups and pests that could affect important crops are spreading to higher latitudes at an average rate of 2.7 km per year.

当前,全球气候持续变暖、极端天气事件高发频发重发,与之伴随的次生灾害和病虫害造成减产损失的风险进一步加大。一是气候变暖导致作物减产风险增大。预计到21 世纪末,气候变化将对主要农作物带来减产作用,每10 年减产1%~3%,其中玉米减产约 2.3%,大豆减产约 3.3%,小麦、水稻分别减产约 1.3%、0.7%。二是气候变暖将导致全球更多地区出现更频繁、更强烈、更持久的极端高温、降水和干旱等极端气候事件,预计到21 世纪末我国北方、东北和南方地区的严重干旱概率将增加25% 以上。三是气候变暖导致作物病虫害发生频率增加、面积扩大,重要农作物的病原体组和害虫以每年平均2.7 km 的速度向高纬度地区扩张。

IV.    Analysis of Overall National Food Security Landscape in the Context of “Dual Circulation”


Overall, affected by the dual risks of geopolitical instability and global supply chain disruptions, countries have become increasingly concerned about ensuring the security of agricultural products, particularly grain commodities. Using food issues as levers and bargaining chips has become a growing trend in contemporary international competition. The impact of deglobalization on agricultural product prices far exceeds the influence posed by traditional supply and demand issues, which has led to countries maintaining excess reserves of agricultural products. Facing the complex and constantly changing international macroeconomic and food security situation, it is necessary to re-examine China’s strategic priorities for food security in the context of “dual circulation.”


(i)      Per Capita Grain Demand and Total Grain Demand May Continue to Rise


As China builds a well-off society in an all-round way, the dietary structure of residents continues to transform and upgrade, with growth in animal products consumption driving the growth in demand for feed grains. According to the estimation of the China Agricultural Sector Model (CASM), China’s per capita grain demand will drop from 205 kg in 2022 to 187 kg in 2035. By 2035, the output of pork, beef, mutton, chicken, eggs, and dairy will reach 5.56×107 t, 8.09×106 t, 6.1×106 t, 2.06×107 t, 3.17×107 t, and 5.17×107 t respectively. Driven by growth in livestock product output, China’s per capita feed grain demand will increase from 180 kg in 2022 to 195 kg in 2035, and per capita grain demand (excluding inventory changes) will increase from 568 kg in 2022 to 599 kg in 2035. As a result, China’s total grain demand (including inventory changes) will increase from 8.3×108 t in 2022  to 8.57×108 t in 2035. Specifically, the demand for corn will increase from 3×108 t to 3.1×108 t and the demand for soybeans will increase from 1.11×108 t to 1.28×108 t. In 2035, China’s per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country, people’s per capita income will continue to grow, and there will still be considerable room for people’s dietary structures to grow more sophisticated.

我国全面建成小康社会后,居民膳食结构继续转型升级,动物性产品消费的增长带动了饲料粮需求的增长。根据中国农业产业模型(CASM) 的测算数据,我国人均粮食食用需求量从 2022 年的 205 kg 下降至 2035 年的 187 kg;到 2035 年,猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋、奶类的产量将分别达到 5.56×107 t、8.09×106 t、6.1×106 t、2.06×107 t、3.17×107 t、5.17×107 t。在畜产品产量增长的带动下,我国人均饲用粮食需求量从 2022 年的 180 kg增加至2035 年的195 kg,人均粮食需求量(不含库存变动) 将从 2022 年的 568 kg 增加至 2035 年的599 kg。由此,我国粮食需求总量(含库存变动)将从2022 年的8.3×108 t 增加至2035 年的8.57×108 t;其中,玉米需求量从3×108 t 增加至3.1×108 t,大豆需求量从1.11×108 t 增加至1.28×108 t。面向2035 年, 我国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家水平, 居民人居收入将会持续增长,膳食结构还有较大的升级空间。

(ii)     Grain Production May Grow Steadily and Grain Self-Sufficiency May Improve Progressively


By estimation, China’s grain output will grow steadily, the gap between grain supply and demand will show a narrowing trend, and the grain self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase to 85%. According to the estimation of CASM, if the current grain production policies remain unchanged, China’s total grain output will grow from 6.87×108 t in 2022 to 7.16×108 t, an increase of about 2.9×107 t. Combining grain demand and grain production data, China’s net grain imports will show a downward trend, but will stabilize itself at 1.4×108 t or above. In 2035, net grain imports are expected to be 1.41×108 t. Specifically, the net import volume of corn will reach 2.59×107 t and the net import volume of soybeans will reach 8.91×107 t. China’s grain self-sufficiency rate will increase from 81.2% in 2022 to 83.5% in 2035. Specifically, its corn self-sufficiency rate will increase from 91.2% in 2022 to 91.7% in 2035, and soybean will increase from 16.7% in 2022 to 30.6% in 2035. If more effective support policies for grain production are adopted and grain production potential is further tapped, it is projected that China’s total grain output could reach a higher level in 2035 to 7.3×108 t, boosting the food self-sufficiency rate.

粮食产量稳定增长,粮食供需缺口呈收敛趋势, 粮食自给率缓步提升至85%。根据CASM 模型测算, 如果保持现有粮食生产政策不变,我国粮食总产量将从 2022 年的 6.87×108 t 增至 2035 年的 7.16×108 t,增长约 2.9×107 t。综合粮食需求量和粮食产量数据,我国粮食净进口量将呈下降态势,但仍稳定在1.4×108 t 以上。2035 年的粮食净进口量预计为1.41×108 t,其中,玉米净进口量将达到2.59×107   t,大豆净进口量将达到8.91×107 t。我国粮食自给率将从2022 年的81.2% 增长至2035 年的83.5%,其中,玉米自给率将从 2022 年的 91.2% 上升至 2035 年的91.7%, 大豆自给率将从 2022 年的 16.7% 上升至2035   年的30.6%。若采取更加有效的粮食生产支持政策,进一步挖掘粮食生产潜力,预计2035  年我国粮食总产量还可再上一个台阶,达到7.3×108 t,粮食自给率得到进一步提升。

(iii)    China Has to Focus on How Its Imports Affect Other Developing Countries


Under the new development mode characterized by “dual circulation,” we must focus on the impact of China’s food imports on other developing countries. On the one hand, the international market has consistent expectations regarding China’s soybean imports, and China’s future soybean imports will have a limited impact on the international market. On the other hand, corn is an important grain and the staple food in many countries and regions in Africa, Asia, and Central and South America. In 2020, apart from China, the top 10 corn-importing countries included developing countries such as Vietnam, Colombia, Malaysia, and Peru. China’s large-quantity import of corn may cause global corn price fluctuations and pose certain food security risks to developing countries that rely on corn as their staple food.

在“双循环”新发展格局下,应关注我国粮食进口对其他发展中国家的影响。一方面,国际市场对我国大豆进口有着稳定的预期,未来我国大豆进口对国际市场影响有限。另一方面,玉米是重要的粮食作物,是许多非洲、亚洲、中南美洲国家和地区的主粮。2020 年,除中国外,玉米进口前10 位的国家中包含越南、哥伦比亚、马来西亚、秘鲁等发展中国家。我国大量进口玉米可能造成全球玉米价格波动,给以玉米为主食的发展中国家带来一定的粮食安全隐患。

(iv)    We Must Ensure Staple Grain and Important Grain Variety Self-Sufficiency Rates Are Above the Bottom Lines


The prerequisite for utilizing the “two markets” (两个市场, international and domestic markets) is that we must identify the strategic bottom line for energy resources used for domestic production. Therefore, we must adhere to the following bottom lines: our self-sufficiency rate for staple grains must be no lower than 97%, cereal self-sufficiency rate no lower than 90%, grain self-sufficiency rate no lower than 80%, corn no lower than 90%, and soybean no lower than 30%. Before 2035, based on the current grain output of 6.8×108 t, we must ensure that we move up at least one level to 7×108 t and strive to reach 7.3×108 t. If our grain output can reach 7.3×108 t in 2035, our grain self-sufficiency rate will reach 85%, and our food security will be better ensured. Calculating based on the current 6.8×108 t of comprehensive production capacity, future grain output must increase by about 5×107 t, among which, the output of corn and soybean needs to increase by 3×107 t and 2×107 t. To this end, we must further tap the grain production potential of the southern region and make full use of potential land resources of desert grasslands and saline-alkali lands. In addition, in order to ensure the supply of protein feed, we can also tap the production capacity of cottonseed, rapeseed, peanuts, small oilseed varieties, and their processed products, and make full use of residue, aquatic and livestock products, herb plants, woody plants, and root and tuber feed resources, as well as new protein feed resources such as Clostridium autoethanogenum protein and insect processed products to achieve 2.04 × 107 t of alternative protein feed (equivalent to 6.09 × 107 t of soybeans).

利用“ 两个市场”的前提是必须明确重要能源资源国内生产自给的战略底线,因此,要坚守口粮自给率不低于97%、谷物自给率不低于90%、粮食自给率不低于80%、玉米自给率不低于90%、大豆自给率不低于30% 的底线。在2035 年前,确保粮食产量在6.8×108 t 的基础上,至少再上一个台阶, 达到7×108 t,力争上两个台阶,达到7.3×108 t。若粮食产量能够在 2035 年达到 7.3×108 t,粮食自给率将达到 85%,粮食安全会更有保障。按照当前6.8×108 t 的综合生产能力计算, 未来粮食生产需增产约5×107   t,其中,玉米、大豆产量需分别增产3×107 t、2×107 t。实现粮食增产这一目标,需进一步挖掘南方地区的粮食生产潜力,充分利用戈壁、盐碱地等后备土地资源。此外,为保障饲料蛋白供给,还可通过挖掘棉籽、菜籽、花生、小品种油料及其加工产品的生产能力,充分利用糟渣类、水产和畜产品类、草本类、木本类、块根块茎类饲料资源以及乙醇梭菌蛋白、昆虫加工产品等新型蛋白饲料资源,实现2.04×107 t 饲用蛋白的替代(相当于6.09×107 t 大豆)。

V.     National Food Security Philosophy, Goals, and Strategic Paths


(i)      Overall Philosophy


On the basis of the strategic deployments for building a strong agricultural country, the new development stage, and the new “dual circulation” development mode, we must grasp China’s resource endowment conditions in a scientific manner, attach great importance to the problem of protein supply shortage, and comprehensively improve food security resilience and the overall level of food security by making efforts in two areas: improving protein supply capacity and improving protein utilization efficiency. Specifically, the greatest problem facing China’s food security in the context of “dual circulation” is the insufficient supply of feed corn and soybeans, and the most critical issue is to address constraints in protein supply. To this end, we can improve our protein supply capacity through multiple channels to achieve protein security. At the same time, we can start by improving the capabilities of grain production and cultivation, optimizing its layout, and improving the resilience of the food system, in order to build a food security system that may reach both long-term and short-term goals. We should also improve the reliability of domestic and international supply and reduce the impact of uncertain factors. Eventually, based on the high production efficiency and stable supply chains, these measures will improve China’s autonomy and control capabilities over food security and long-term sustainable development.

立足农业强国建设部署、新发展阶段和“双循环”新发展格局,科学把握我国资源禀赋条件,高度重视蛋白供给短缺问题,从提升蛋白供给能力、提高蛋白利用效率两个方面出发,全面提高食物安全韧性、食物安全总体水平。具体来看,“双循环”背景下我国粮食安全面临的最大的问题是饲用玉米、大豆供给不足,最关键的问题是处理好蛋白的制约问题,为此,可从多途径提升蛋白供给能力, 实现蛋白安全,同时从提升种养水平、优化种养结合布局和提高粮食系统韧性入手,构建长期目标和短期目标兼顾的粮食安全体系,提升国内国际供给能力的确定性、减少不确定因素的影响,在保障生产效率和供应链稳定的前提下,提高我国粮食安全的自主可控能力和长期可持续发展能力。

(ii)     Overall Goals


  1. Improve Comprehensive Production Capacity for Protein Feed, Promote the Import Diversification of Protein Products, and Strengthen the Global Supply Chain for Protein Feed
  1. 提高蛋白饲料综合生产能力,推进蛋白产品多元化进口,完善蛋白饲料全球供应链

We must strengthen the fundamental basis of domestic production, fully implement the national food security strategy, ensure a sufficient supply of cropland for grain production, launch soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement projects, promote the strip intercropping of soybeans and corn, and strive to achieve the goal of increasing soybean harvest by an extra season with no reduction in corn yield. 19 We must progressively improve food supply assurance capabilities, achieve an overall balance between food supply and demand, ensure absolute security of staple grain supply, achieve autonomy and control over overall food security, and guarantee the strategic bottom lines for staple grains and food self-sufficiency rates. 20 Following the guidance of “ensuring effective self-sufficiency and smooth international circulation,” we must further clarify the priority for domestic feed resource supply and international trade. We must formulate plans to ensure the supply of China’s protein feed resources, clarify the goals, tasks, and measures for improving domestic comprehensive production capacity and moderating imports of protein feed resources by varieties, establish diversified, stable, and reliable import channels, and promote diversification in the soybean import markets. We must make overall arrangements for the strategic plan of “going global” and strengthen the global supply chain of protein feed. We must focus on improving the exploration and utilization of new protein feed resources, promote the efficient utilization and conversion of industrial and agricultural by-products and waste products based on enzymology, and strive to make up for more than 50% of the protein feed shortfall.

稳定国内生产基本盘,深入实施国家粮食安全战略,确保粮食播种面积稳定,启动大豆和油料产能提升工程,推广大豆和玉米带状复合种植,力争实现玉米不减产、增收一季大豆的目标。稳步提高食物供给保障能力,实现食物供求总体基本平衡,口粮绝对安全,粮食总体安全自主可控,坚守口粮和粮食自给率的战略底线。按照确保“保障有效自给、畅通国际循环”的要求,进一步明确国内饲料资源供给优先序和国际贸易优先序。制定我国饲料蛋白资源供给保障计划,分品种明确提高饲料蛋白资源国内综合生产能力和适度进口的目标、任务和措施,建立多元、稳定、可靠的进口渠道, 推进大豆进口市场多元化。统筹安排“走出去”的战略布局,完善蛋白饲料全球供应链。重视新型蛋白饲料资源开发利用水平的提升,推进以酶学为基础的工农业副产物、废弃物的高效利用与转化,力争弥补50% 以上的饲料蛋白缺口。

  1. Optimize Grain Production Structure and Adjust Regional Layout, Improve Production Efficiency and Capacity
  1. 优化种植结构和调整区域布局,提高种植效率与产能

Following the philosophy of building a “big agriculture sector”, a “big market”, and a “big, nationwide resource utilization arrangement plan”, we must promote the adjustment of the grain production and animal husbandry structure, develop food resources in a comprehensive and multi-aspect manner, develop rich and diverse food varieties, achieve a balance between supply and demand of various types of food, and better meet the increasingly diversified food consumption demands of the people. On the basis of ensuring food security, we must promote a variety of production models that can improve output efficiency and land resource utilization; accelerate the transformation of grain production from focusing on “quantity” at the expense of resource consumption to improving production “quality” with green consumption as its goal; actively promote the upgrade of the consumption structure and build a food variety structure that adapts to market demand; improve the development positioning and supply of the forage industry and develop the sector under the philosophy of “planting grass means planting grain, planting grass can increase land resources, and planting grass will attract high profits.”


  1. Develop Circular Agriculture Combining Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, Optimize Green and Healthy Animal Husbandry Models that Incorporate Grain Production, Reduce the Level of Protein Feed Consumption, and Improve Animal Husbandry Efficiency
  1. 发展种养结合的循环农业,优化种养结合绿色健康养殖模式,降低饲用蛋白消耗水平,提升养殖效率

On the premise of protecting the ecosystem, we must turn more land into cultivated land. We should plant grains and cash crops, graze animals, and develop fishery and forestry where conditions meet, in order to form a modern agricultural production structure and regional layout that match the bearing capacity of resources and the environment. 21 Specifically, we should combine grain production and animal husbandry as a major agricultural mode in counties, by factoring in local conditions, as well as promoting the low-cost treatment of livestock and poultry manure, returning it for use on-site or on nearby farmland. Based on the bearing capacity of the land, we must reasonably determine the planting scale and animal husbandry scale and promote the development of standardized forage base projects of appropriate scale and in line with local ecological conditions, so as to make up for the shortage of livestock feed. For critical control points of circular agriculture that integrate grain production and animal husbandry, we must carry out research and information-sharing campaigns and leverage specialized forage companies as service providers to support the integration efforts. We must expand the practice of leveraging animal husbandry to support the grain production sector (以养定种) and use manure instead of chemical fertilizers. We must adapt to the requirements of agricultural structural adjustment, re-prioritize agricultural S&T research and development, and establish a comprehensive grain S&T innovation system. By optimizing the structure of the grain production and animal husbandry industry, we must establish a grain and livestock production chain and supply chain system that is compatible with the mode of “dual circulation.” Through the resource circulation of the grain production and animal husbandry industries, we will establish a sustainable development circulation system integrating the two sectors, develop moderate-scale family farms that combine grain production and animal husbandry, build a nutrient management system with strict nutrient management plans, design a proper layout for the livestock industry, realize the integration of grain production and animal husbandry in nearby areas, build a modernized grain and animal product treatment system, reduce the consumption of refined crops, and reduce costs along the entire production chain. 22

在保护好生态环境的前提下,将耕地资源向整个国土资源拓展,宜粮则粮、宜经则经、宜牧则牧、宜渔则渔、宜林则林,形成同市场需求相适应、同资源环境承载力相匹配的现代农业生产结构和区域布局。具体来看,因地制宜确定县域种养结合主推模式,推动畜禽粪污低成本处理、就地就近还田使用;根据土地承载能力,合理确定种植规模和养殖规模,推进适度规模、符合当地生态条件的标准化饲草基地工程建设,弥补养殖饲料不足; 开展种养结合循环农业关键控制点的研究与示范, 以专业化的饲草公司为服务载体实现种养结合;大力推行以养定种、粪肥替代化肥;适应农业结构调整要求,重新确立农业科技研发重点,全面建立粮食科技创新体系。通过优化种养产业结构,建立与“双循环”格局相适应、相匹配的粮食和畜产品产业链供应链体系;通过种植业与养殖业的资源循 环,建立可持续发展的种养结合循环体系,发展适度规模的种养结合家庭农场,构建养分管理体系, 严格制定养分管理计划,合理布局畜牧产业,就近 实现种养结合,构建现代化种养处理系统,减少精 细化农作物的消耗,为整个种养结合产业链节约成本。

  1. Enhance Domestic Production Capacity, Improve the Utilization of International Resources and Markets, Enhance Food Security Resilience as well as Risk Management Capabilities
  1. 增强国内生产能力,提升国际资源和市场利用水平,增强粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力

For domestic circulation, we should be mindful of the bottom line of food security, the “big food” concept, enabling food security with S&T, and other strategies; we must increase the supply of high-quality agricultural products, improve the level of agricultural development, and strengthen policy targeting and coordination, so as to improve food supply stability; we should also improve grain production capacity, increase grain quality and diversity, and develop smart agriculture to ensure food security resilience. Under the “dual circulation” model, we must make full use of both domestic and international resources and markets in terms of S&T advancement, policy formulation, and human resources development, effectively integrating food security resilience into the new “dual circulation” development model through leveraging diversified import channels and our deployment of overseas grain-related production chains, strengthen China’s food security resilience under the new context, and further improve the risk management and control levels. 23

在国内大循环中,基于保障粮食安全的底线思维、大食物观、科技赋能粮食安全等战略,通过加大优质农产品供应、提高农业发展水平、加强政策针对性与联动性等途径,提高粮食供应的稳定性; 通过提高粮食产能、粮食品质化与多元化、发展智慧农业等途径保持粮食安全韧性。在“双循环”促进中,从科技进步、政策制定、人力资源开发等层面充分利用国内国际两种资源、两个市场,通过多元化的进口渠道、布局海外涉粮产业链等路径,将粮食安全韧性有效融合于“双循环”发展新格局中,培育新形势下我国粮食安全韧性,为风险管控水平添新动力。

(iii)    Strategic path


  1. Address the Weak Points and Improve the Comprehensive Production Capacity of Protein Feed
  1. 补齐短板,提高蛋白饲料综合生产能力

On the premise of ensuring the absolute security of staple grain production, ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grains, and optimizing the crop variety structure and regional layout, we must accelerate the improvement in output and quality of China’s soybean production, continue to drive up the soybean self-sufficiency rate, and ensure that the self-sufficiency rate of oilseed crops increases by 1 percentage point every year. At the same time, we must moderately expand the planting area of oilseed crops, such as peanuts and rapeseed, and in addition to increasing the supply of edible oils to meet increasing demands, edible oil by-products such as rapeseed meal and peanut meal can also provide protein feed for livestock raising. We should properly restore the multi-cropping system in the south, such as in southern Jiangsu and Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, and northern Yunnan, making full use of unplanted fields in winter to develop the multi-cropping mode for rice. In addition, based on the layout and development needs of the cattle and sheep industry, we should appropriately increase the planting of high-quality forage grasses such as whole plant corn silage, forage oats, annual ryegrass, and alfalfa to provide high-quality feed supply for the structural adjustment of the livestock industry.

在确保口粮生产绝对安全,谷物基本自给、优化作物品种结构和区域布局的基础上,加快推进我国大豆生产增量提质,持续提升大豆自给率,保证油料作物自给率每年提高1  个百分点;同时,适度 扩大油料作物种植面积,如花生、油菜,在增加食用油消费供给的基础上,其产生的菜籽粕和花生粕等副产品还可为畜牧养殖提供蛋白饲料。科学恢复南方地区的多熟制,如在江苏和安徽南部、湖北、贵州和云南北部沿线以南地区,充分利用冬闲田, 发展稻谷多熟制。此外,根据牛羊产业布局和发展需求,适度扩大全株青贮玉米、饲用燕麦、多花黑麦草、苜蓿等优质饲草的种植,为畜牧业结构调整提供优质饲料保障。

  1. Ensure the Effective Supply of Protein Feed and Secure Replacements for Protein
  1. 保障蛋白饲料的有效供给,实现蛋白替代 推进非常规和新型蛋白生产技术的产业化发

We must promote the industrialization of unconventional and new protein production technologies, further enhance the effective supply of protein feed, and improve the supply level of protein feed in China. Adopting unconventional approaches, we should seek added value in utilizing mixed fodder, improve the quality and efficiency in using grains and their by-products, and promote the R&D and product development of high-value application technologies for other agricultural byproducts. In terms of the development and utilization of new protein feed resources, we must explore new protein feed germplasm resources, leverage microbial protein to address protein shortage, carry out research on fermentation kinetics of different gases and process optimization studies, and promote industrialization to ensure low cost and extensive application of the technologies. In addition, in response to the issue of food waste, we must promote the safe and efficient use of leftover food and promote their conversion into feed.

展,进一步提升蛋白饲料的有效供给,提升我国蛋白饲料的供给水平。在非常规途径上,重视杂粕等的增值利用,提高谷物及副产物的提质增效利用, 推进其他农副产物高值化利用技术的研发与产品创制。在新型蛋白饲料资源的开发利用方面,要挖掘新型饲料蛋白种质资源,以微生物蛋白生产来破解蛋白质短缺难题,开展不同气体发酵反应动力学及工艺优化研究,并推动产业化发展,确保低成本大范围推广。另外,针对粮食浪费问题, 推进餐桌剩余食物的安全高效利用,推进其饲料化转化。

  1. We Must Adjust the Industrial Structure of the Animal Husbandry Industry, Improve Feed Utilization Efficiency, and Properly Increase Protein Supply
  1. 调整种养产业结构,提高饲料使用效率,合理增加蛋白供给

We must establish a grain and livestock product production chain and supply chain system adapted to and aligned with the “dual circulation” pattern. To this end, we must adjust the structure of the grain production and animal husbandry industry and optimize the green development model that integrates the two sectors. We must take full account of the regional conditions, make sure the selection of poultry and livestock types for raising is compatible with local high-yield crops, which could be the main materials for animal feed, and minimize extra investment in feed procurement. We must integrate existing agricultural resources, improve the efficiency of forage resource utilization, and further clarify the priority between domestic feed resource supply and international feed trade. We should follow the requirements of “ensuring effective self-sufficiency and smooth international circulation,” formulate plans to ensure the supply of China’s protein feed resources, and clarify the goals, tasks, and measures for improving domestic comprehensive production capacity and moderating imports of protein feed resources by variety. We must implement the import diversification strategy in an orderly manner, actively promote strategic international agricultural cooperation, increase soybean imports from multiple sources, reduce our dependence on a small number of countries, avoid being placed in a “stranglehold” position when certain countries restrict imports of protein resources, promote the building of diversified, stable, and reliable importing channels, and promote the diversification of the soybean import market.


  1. Carry Out Research on Key Technologies and Strengthen S&T Support for Protein Supply
  1. 开展重点技术攻关,提升科技对蛋白供给的贡献度

We must focus on ensuring the output and supply of important agricultural products such as grains, meet the increasingly diversified consumer demand for nutritious and healthy food, focus on approaches involving biology-based animal husbandry, biofertilizers, biofeed, and biopesticides, conduct research on key technologies, and cultivate a batch of new-generation agricultural biological products. We must strengthen the application of S&T innovation achievements in “grain conservation and loss reduction,” improve the level of grain storage S&T, improve the technology support for grain transportation, promote the digital enablement for decentralized transportation and logistics for raw grains, and create a modern grain transportation system in which various transportation modes coexist and complement each other. We must improve the S&T support for grain processing, actively promote the research and development of technical equipment such as intelligent and clean processing facilities, and comprehensively utilize grain processing by-products. We must step up to achieve technological breakthroughs in protein resources, develop new technologies for seed-sourcing and planting for oilseed crop feeds, and increase the yield of crops and forage to secure more substitutes for soybean meal resources. We must develop technologies such as protein feed resource processing to improve the quality and performance of unconventional protein feed resources.


  1. Actively Participate in International Grain Governance and Properly Leverage the International Grain Market
  1. 积极参与国际粮食治理,合理利用国际粮食市场

First, we must make good use of international resources and optimize grain imports. We must actively expand the channels for grain imports, focus particularly on importing grain from countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, gradually establish a stable supply chain covering overseas grain inbound transportation and storage, and ensure that grains and other agricultural products are not only “available for purchase” but also have “controllable prices” (控得稳) and are “transportable” (运得回). Second, we must make good use of the international market and cultivate large international grain trading companies. We must establish and improve the global grain supply and demand information system, enhance our control over international grain trade information, and shake off the dependence on a single country’s agricultural information. We must encourage Chinese grain enterprises to “go global,” build a development model for the entire grain production chain by supporting state-owned enterprises, and cultivate mega industry-leading grain enterprises integrating “science, production, supply, and marketing” with international competitiveness. Third, we must make good use of international resources and establish a grain production and supply base. We must actively pursue our role in the global grain production chain and supply chain, encourage qualified enterprises to establish stable overseas food production and supply bases, and further increase our voice on grain issues. Fourth, we must cultivate domestic commodity exchanges, and support them to become globally influential agricultural futures trading markets, enable the futures market to truly reflect international grain price trends, and use it to mitigate the impact of international grain market shocks on domestic grain production.

一是用好国际资源,优化粮食进口贸易。积极扩大粮食进口来源,尤其是进口“一带一路”国家 和地区的粮食,逐步建立起稳定的海外粮食进口运 输、储藏等供应链,确保粮食和其他农产品不仅能 “买得到”,更要“控得稳”“运得回”。二是用好国际市场,培育我国的国际化大粮商。建立并完 善全球粮食供求信息系统,提升粮食国际贸易信息的自主性, 摆脱对单一国家农业信息的依赖; 鼓励国内粮食企业“ 走出去”, 通过扶持国有企业,构建粮食全产业链发展模式,培育具有国际竞争力的超大规模的“科产供销”一体的粮食龙头企业。三是用好国际资源,建立粮食生产供应基地。积极融入全球粮食产业链供应链,鼓励有条件的企业建立稳定的海外粮食生产和供应基地, 进一步掌握粮食话语权。四是培育国内商品交易 所,使其快速成长为全球有影响力的农产品期货交 易市场,促使期货市场能够真实反映粮食国际价格 走势,并利用其降低国际粮食市场冲击对国内粮食 生产的影响。

VI.    Major Project Recommendations for National Food Security


(i)           Grain Production Capacity Improvement Demonstration Projects


We should increase the investment in research on the improvement and upgrading of crops, especially the three main staple varieties, ensure the increase in grain output with high-quality varieties, promote China’s transformation from a country with a large seed industry to one with a powerful seed industry, accelerate the development of new varieties with independent intellectual property rights, break the technological “stranglehold” and strengthen patent protection in the seed industry, and thereby optimize the competitive landscape of the seed industry. We recommend that China should cultivate industry-leading enterprises, enhance the effect of economies of scale in the seed industry, build a collaborative innovation methodology involving “government, industry, academia, research, and application,” strengthen core technology research in the seed industry, make up for the shortcomings at the front end of the production chain, and create innovation momentum for agricultural development. We should strengthen the construction of high-quality grain fields, focus on building grain production areas with specific functions, adhere to an equal emphasis on new cropland exploitation and quality improvement of existing cropland, carry out large-scale construction and quality improvement of different types of land in different regions, and advance the development of high-quality farmland county-wide. 24 At the same time, we should raise the standards for high-quality farmland construction, and prioritize the construction of high-quality farmland in the “two zones” (grain production functional zones and important agricultural product production protection zones), so as to ensure guaranteed harvests and high and stable yields even in cases of droughts and floods. We should guide farmers to plant target crops, and actively create a number of “counties producing 1.5 tons of grain per mu.” We should strengthen the leading role of “sky-to-ground” (天空地) digital agricultural technology integration capabilities in the development of high-quality grain fields and strengthen the construction of infrastructure, hardware equipment, software systems, and public platforms for digital agricultural technologies such as remote sensing networks, Internet of Things (IoT), big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI).

加大农作物尤其是3 种主粮品种改良升级的研发力度,以优质品种保障粮食增产,推动我国由种业大国向种业强国发展,加快培育拥有独立自主知识产权的新品种,破解种业“卡脖子”难题并加强种业专利保护,优化种业竞争格局。建议培育龙头企业,提升种业行业的规模经济效应,构建“政产学研用”协同创新路径,加强种业核心技术攻关, 补齐产业链前端短板,打造农业创新引领。强化高标准粮田建设,以粮食生产功能区为重点,坚持新建与提升并重,分类分区域大规模开展高标准粮田建设和提质改造,整县推进高标准农田建设;同时, 提高高标准农田建设标准, 优先在“ 两区”(粮食生产功能区、重要农产品生产保护区)建设旱涝保收、高产稳产的高标准农田,引导农民种植目标作物,积极打造一批“吨半粮县”;强化“天空地”数字农业技术集成在高标准粮田建设中的引领作用,强化遥感网、物联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能等数字农业技术的基础设施、硬件装备、软件系统和公共平台建设。

(ii)     New Protein Resource Substitution Projects


We should bolster quality and efficiency improvement in unconventional protein feed resources, develop industrialized integrated technology for the value-added utilization of mixed fodder, carry out demonstration projects of industrialized integrated technology for value-added products, and encourage existing mixed fodder processing enterprises for cotton meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut cake meal to carry out technology upgrades and modification. We should launch industrialized integrated technology demonstration projects to improve the quality and efficiency of grain and by-product utilization and carry out industrialized integrated technology demonstrations for the value-added utilization of grains and their by-products, value-added utilization of grain intensive processing by-products, value-added utilization of residue by-products, the utilization of contaminated grain and by-products, and the overdue stock of grain and by-products. We should strengthen the development and utilization of new protein feed resources, vigorously develop microbial proteins, explore new protein feed germplasm resources, leverage synthetic biology technology, and create high-version synthetic organisms. We should develop small and economical methane gas fermentation equipment and processing technology and develop technology for the efficient production of one-carbon gas-fermented bacterial cell protein by crop residue gasification. We should develop technology to produce insect protein from organic waste such as kitchen waste, fruit and vegetable waste, and manure and promote low-cost and safe production of insect resources such as black soldier flies, fly maggots, and yellow fireflies.


(iii)    Green and Low-carbon Circular Grain Production and Animal Husbandry Projects


Taking agricultural biopharmaceuticals, biofertilizers, and intelligent irrigation equipment manufacturing as breakthrough points, we should integrate land-saving, water-saving, fertilizer-saving, pesticide-saving, energy-saving, and other green and efficient crop production technologies to guide agricultural production to become more green, efficient, resource-efficient, and environment-friendly. We should accelerate the green and low-carbon transition for the grain production industry, improve the utilization efficiency of water, fertilizer, pesticides, and other inputs, promote an agricultural model featuring efficient ecological circulation, and build a green development demonstration zone for the grain production industry. 25 We should strengthen the utilization of livestock and poultry manure as resources, focus on supporting the research and development of technologies and products that convert livestock and poultry manure into protein feed or organic fertilizer, and establish technical specifications for treating wastes as resources and the harmless disposal of manure and urine on different scales and for different livestock species. We should improve resource protection and efficient utilization, and at the same time explore, improve, and promote green and low-carbon production methods. We should promote the integration of planting and animal husbandry industries and develop circular agriculture that integrates planting and animal husbandry.

以农业生物药物、生物肥料、智能灌溉装备制造等为突破口,集成节地、节水、节肥、节药、节能等农作物绿色高效生产技术,引领农业生产更为绿色高效和资源环境友好。加快种植业生产方式绿色低碳转型,提高水、肥、药等投入品的利用效率,推广高效生态循环农业模式,建设种植业绿色发展示范区。加强畜禽粪污的资源化利用,重点支持将畜禽粪便转化为饲用蛋白或有机肥的技术与产品研发,建立针对不同规模和不同畜种的粪尿资源化、无害化处理技术规范。加强资源保护和高效利用, 挖掘、提升、推广绿色、低碳的生产方式。加大种植业与养殖业的结合力度,发展种养结合循环农业。

(iv)    International Grain Resource Exploration and Utilization Projects


We should actively engage in international food security governance and monitoring, identify the position and role of the international market in protecting national security, guarantee the stable supply of external grain supply system, accelerate the incubation of large-scale grain merchants and agricultural enterprise groups with international competitiveness, strengthen the economic and trade relationships along the Belt and Road Initiative and in other key areas, strengthen global food security and agricultural sector governance, and enhance synergy between the domestic and international markets. We should improve the market monitoring system and enhance food security governance capabilities. We should establish and improve the global agricultural trade investment and market monitoring information system and move international risk prevention and control checkpoints to the upstream of the supply chain. We should introduce advanced technologies such as big data, AI, and the IoT, progressively establish a national grain reserve information management system and an international grain information collection system, and achieve the “visible, controllable, and adjustable” coordination of grain reserves and international grain resources. We should establish complementary adjustment mechanisms for commercial reserves of important agricultural products, strengthen relationships and cooperation between major imported crops and major suppliers in the global grain supply chain, and enhance the adjustment and supporting capabilities of commercial reserves.

积极参与国际粮食安全治理与监测工作,明确国际市场在国家安全中的地位与作用,稳定外部粮源供应体系,加快培养具有国际竞争力的大型粮商和农业企业集团,深化“一带一路”等重点地区的经贸布局、强化全球粮食安全与农业领域治理,增强国内与国际市场的协同性。完善贸易监测体系, 提升粮食安全治理能力。建立健全全球农业贸易投资与市场监测信息体系,促进国际风险防控关口前移至供应链上端。引入大数据、人工智能、物联网等先进技术,逐步建立全国粮食储备信息管理系统和国际粮食信息采集系统,实现储备粮和国际粮食资源同步“可见、可控、可调”。建立重要农产品 的商业储备补充调节机制,加强主要进口农作物与全球粮食供应链上主要供给方的链接与合作,提升商业储备的调节与保障功能。

(v)     Future Food R&D Demonstration Projects


We should explore food resources from multiple aspects and through multiple channels, build a diversified food supply system, and strive to provide richer and more nutritious food resources. We should focus on promoting key and core technologies such as protein resource bioengineering, tap the potential of new protein feed germplasm resources, and leverage microbial protein production to solve the protein shortage problems. Based on the natural chassis cells of one-carbon assimilated microorganisms such as Clostridium autoethanogenum, methanotrophic bacteria, hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria, and microalgae and using synthetic biology technology, we could create higher synthetic organisms that efficiently assimilate one-carbon gas and achieve biological carbon fixation, producing ethanol, acetic acid, fat, bacterial protein, and microalgae protein. We should develop industrialized integration technology for the value-added utilization of mixed fodder and push existing mixed fodder processing enterprises such as those for cotton meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut cake meal to carry out technological upgrades and transformations. In addition, we should build a forest-driven food supply base, give full play to the role of forests as the “reservoir, treasury, granary, and carbon storehouse,” and optimize the layout of the forest-based food industry. We should build a cold-water fishery product supply base, vigorously develop cold-water fishery production and processing, and promote the high-quality development of the industry. We should build cold-region fruit and vegetable production bases, improve the scale and standardization level of facility agriculture, develop agriculture featuring ecological circulation, and form a cold-region fruit and vegetable industry development mode with advanced facilities, green production methods and high quality, high yield and efficiency, as well as coordinated production and marketing.


VII.  Suggested Solutions


(i)      Strengthen the Food Security System Based on the “Dual Circulation” Mode


First, we should advance the import diversification strategy in an orderly manner. While consolidating and improving the stability of major grain import sources, we should actively promote strategic international agricultural cooperation, focus on adjusting the sources of imports for products such as soybeans and rapeseed, build a diversified oilseed import supply system, and promote the diversification of the soybean import channels. We must continue to expand and strengthen economic and trade partnerships with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and actively guide countries with soybean production potential to expand their cropland. Second, we should make full use of foreign land resources, especially the grain and oilseed production resources of neighboring countries, focus on the regions along the Belt and Road Initiative and African countries, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction and agricultural S&T cooperation, promote import channel diversification, actively participate in global agriculture and food security governance, and give full play to the role of the Belt and Road Initiative as a platform for expanding international agricultural cooperation and promoting investment and trade. Third, we should ensure the balance between foreign soybean imports and domestic supply. We should consolidate and expand soybean investment cooperation with Russia, South America, and other countries and regions and explore sustainable soybean cooperation with regions along the Belt and Road Initiative and African countries. We should make full use of the international market and use satellite remote sensing, big data, and other technologies to conduct scientific research and provide early warnings on China’s protein feed resource market conditions, so as to determine the floor and cap for imports. We should improve the self-sufficiency capacity of soybeans, increase production support through cropland expansion, technical support, policy support, and other means, and further improve the standing of large agricultural enterprises in the global protein product industrial chain.

一是有序推进进口多元化战略。在巩固和改善主要粮食进口来源稳定性的同时,积极推进战略性农业国际合作,重点调整大豆、菜籽等进口来源地,构建多元化油料进口供应体系,推进大豆进口市场多元化。持续拓展和加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的经贸合作关系,积极引导有大豆生产潜力的国家扩大种植面积。二是充分利用国外土地资源,尤其是邻国粮油生产资源,重点布局“一带一路” 沿线区域和非洲国家,加强农业基础设施建设和农业科技领域合作,推进多元化进口,深度参与全球农业与粮食安全治理,充分发挥“一带一路”拓展农业国际合作、促进投资贸易建设的平台作用。三是强化大豆市场供给与自我供给平衡状态。巩固和扩大与俄罗斯、南美洲等国家和地区的大豆投资合作,探索与“一带一路”沿线区域和非洲国家的大豆可持续合作;充分利用国际市场,运用卫星遥感、大数据等技术,对全球及我国饲料蛋白资源市场状况进行科学研判和预警,确定进口阈值。提升大豆自我供给能力,通过面积扩大、技术支持、政策扶持等手段,加大支持力度,进一步提升大型农业企业在全球蛋白产品产业链中的地位。

(ii)        Encourage Certain Varieties of Fruits, Vegetables, and Other Products to be Planted on Unconventional Types of Land and Facilities, Providing More Cropland to Ensure Food Security


We should increase the production capacity of marginal land, improve the utilization of saline-alkali land, improve the quality of marginal land, and increase production capacity and economic benefits per unit area. First, we should develop marginal land by improving marginal land production capacity and carrying out saline-alkali land modification and utilization, bolstering and integrating resource conservation, environmental friendliness, and ecological conservation technology models for marginal land, thereby addressing the problems of insufficient cropland areas and quality inconsistency. Second, we should strengthen the protection of cultivated land and adhere to the national “red line” for arable land of 1.8×109 mu. We should set strict standards for converting arable land into non-agricultural construction land and improve the balance between land occupation and compensation (占补平衡). Third, by evaluating water resources and ecological environment conditions, we should select a group of medium and low-quality lands in areas with potential for agricultural development. We should make central and local governments shoulder the cost of land modification according to the preset proportion during the high-quality land construction project, and leverage renovation, terracing, water collection, and irrigation projects, as well as dry farming technology, to speed up the upgrade of medium and low-quality lands. Fourth, adhering to the bottom line of basically no increase in total water usage for agriculture, we should develop oasis agriculture, coordinate the transformation and upgrading of agricultural production with water-saving projects, further develop and expand oasis-based cropland areas along rivers and lakes in arid desert areas in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces, and make full use of the advantages of sufficient sunshine and large temperature differences between day and night to tap the agricultural production potential of oases. Fifth, we should develop facility-driven ecological agriculture, effectively alleviate the land-using conflict between cash crops and food crops, make full use of uncultivated land, and ensure national food security.

扩增边际土地产能,提高盐碱地利用程度,改良边际土地,提高单位产能和经济效益。一是发展边际土地,实施边际土地产能和盐碱地改造利用提升行动,集成边际土地的资源节约、环境友好和生态保育技术模式,解决耕地总量不足和质量偏差问题。二是加大耕地保护力度,坚守全国1.8×109 亩耕地“红线”。严控耕地转为非农建设用地,加强改 进占补平衡。三是结合水资源、生态环境状况等, 选择一批具有农业发展有潜力地区的中等地、低等地,参照高标准农田建设时中央、地方财政按比例分担成本的方式,采取工程改造、修筑梯田、实施集水补灌工程、推广旱作农业技术等方式,加快中低产田升级改造。四是开发绿洲农业,以基本不增加农业用水总量为底线,配合节水工程改造升级, 在新疆、甘肃、宁夏、青海、内蒙古等省份的干旱荒漠地区的河流、湖泊沿岸,进一步开发拓展绿洲粮食播种面积,充分利用上述地区阳光充足、昼夜温差大的优势,挖掘绿洲农业生产潜力。五是发展设施生态农业,有效缓解经济作物与粮食作物争地矛盾,充分利用非耕地,保障国家粮食安全。

(iii)    Promote Diversified and Multi-Channel Development of Oilseed Crops and Ensure a Steady Increase in China’s Self-Sufficiency Rate of Oilseed Crops


First, we should further promote soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement demonstration projects. We should also increase soybean and oilseed production through the implementation of soybean-corn strip-based intercropping, as well as carrying out grain-soybean crop rotation and saline-alkali land-based soybean planting in the Northeast, the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, and other regions. We should improve subsidies for corn and soybean producers and implement pilot programs for replacement cost insurance and planting income insurance for soybean producers. We should continue to carry out joint research on soybean variety breeding, accelerate the cultivation of new high-yield, high-oil, high-protein soybean and oilseed crop varieties, vigorously promote high-yield planting technology, strengthen the potential of varieties to increase the output of soybeans and oilseed crops, and promote the planting of genetically modified soybeans in suitable areas. We should improve the level of mechanization for planting oilseed crops, carry out research and development on key technologies and equipment for the production of oilseed crops such as rapeseed, camellia oil plants, and peanuts, and make up for the weaknesses in mechanization in terms of sowing, harvesting, and shelling. We should strengthen technological research on the integration of agricultural machinery and techniques, and improve the level of mechanization across the entire soybean and oilseed production chains. Second, we should encourage farmers to use uncultivated or underused land resources such as fields left uncultivated in winter and saline-alkali lands to plant oilseed crops. We should cultivate oilseed varieties with short production cycles, take natural resource conditions into account, identify the main oilseed varieties to plant in favorable areas, and expand the cropland for peanuts, sesame, and forestland-based woody grains and oilseeds such as camellia oil plants, idesia polycarpa, and yellow nutsedge in non-agricultural areas. Idesia polycarpa fruits and yellow nutsedge seeds have an oil content above 20%, making them important oilseed crops. During the 14th to 16th Five-Year Plan periods, we recommend planting yellow nutsedge on non-agricultural land in Xinjiang and Northeast China, and planting idesia polycarpa in the southern region, with an area of over 3×107 mu each. Third, we should improve policy support such as income guarantees, improve the income guarantee mechanisms for farmers planting oilseed crops, give full play to the synergy between subsidy policies, and fully mobilize farmers’ enthusiasm for planting oilseed crops.

一是深入推进大豆和油料产能提升示范工程, 通过实施大豆、玉米带状复合种植,在东北、黄淮海地区运用粮豆轮作和盐碱地种植大豆等手段来提高大豆油料产量。完善玉米、大豆生产者补贴,落实好大豆完全成本保险和种植收入保险试点。持续开展大豆品种选育联合攻关,加快培育高产、高油、高蛋白大豆和油料作物新优良品种,大力推广高产种植技术,强化品种对大豆和油料作物生产的支撑能力, 在适宜区域推广种植转基因大豆。提升油料作物机械化水平,开展油菜、油茶、花生等油料作物生产关键技术与设备研究开发,补齐播种、收获、脱壳等机械化短板。加强农机农艺融合技术研究,提升大豆及油料生产全程机械化水平。二是鼓励农户利用冬闲田、盐碱地等未利用或利用不充分的土地资源种植油料作物。培育短生育期油料品种,结合自然资源条件,明确优势区域主推油料品种,在非耕地区域扩大花生、芝麻以及林地木本粮油油茶、山桐子、油莎豆等的种植面积。山桐子、油莎豆含油达 20% 以上, 是重要的油料作物,建议“十四五”至“十六五” 期间利用非耕地,在新疆和东北等地种植油莎豆、在南部地区种植山桐子分别达到3×107 亩以上。三是完善收益保障等政策,健全农民种植油料作物收益保障机制,发挥补贴政策合力,充分调动农民种植油料作物积极性。

(iii)      Steadily Restore the Multi-Cropping System in the Southern Region, Properly Promote the Crop Rotation System in the Northern Region, and Facilitate Nationwide Grain Output Improvement in a Balanced Manner


We should properly restore the multi-cropping system in the southern region and make full use of fields left uncultivated in winter. In southern Jiangsu and Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, and northern Yunnan, we should develop the multi-cropping mechanisms featuring “rice‒oilseed” and “rice‒rice‒oilseed” crop rotation models, keeping grain production stable and improving oilseed output. We should promote the crop rotation system in the northern region in an in-depth manner, promote maize-soybean strip intercropping in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, Northwest, and Southwest regions, and carry out grain-soybean rotation in the Northeast, such as the pilot projects in Heilongjiang province featuring transitioning from irrigated to rainfed farming and from growing rice to growing soybeans in areas of excessive groundwater extraction and cold temperature relying on well-based irrigation. Specifically, in the two major grain-producing areas of Northeast China and the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, we should carry out crop rotation and alternation, and coordinate the relationship between soybeans and corn based on yearly schedules. For example, in the northern part of Northeast China, soybeans and corn are rotated every other year. In the central and southern parts of the Northeast, corn is planted for two or three years alternating with soybeans for one year. In the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, planting soybeans as a summer crop after the wheat harvest has become more popular, forming a rotation of summer soybeans and summer corn planting in alternate years with wheat crops planted in the winter, or a rotation featuring soybean planting for one year and corn for two years. In addition, we should carry out demonstration projects for soybean planting in saline-alkali land, expand the area of cultivated land using the rotation system, guide farmers in the Northeast region to rationally plan their planting schedule, and expand the demonstration area for the strip intercropping of soybeans and corn in suitable areas.

科学恢复南方地区粮食生产的多熟制,充分利用冬闲田,在江苏和安徽南部,湖北、贵州和云南北部沿线以南地区,发展多熟制“稻‒ 油”和“稻‒ 稻 ‒ 油”轮作模式,以稳粮扩油。在北方地区深入推进轮作制,在黄淮海、西北、西南地区推广玉米、大豆带状复合种植,在东北地区开展粮豆轮作,如在黑龙江部分地下水超采区、寒地井灌稻区推进水改旱、稻改豆试点。具体来看,在东北和黄淮海两大粮食产区,做好轮作倒茬,协调大豆与玉米的年际关系。例如,在东北北部地区实行大豆、玉米隔年轮作,在东北中部和南部地区每种植两年或三年玉米轮作一年大豆;在黄淮海一年两熟区, 提高麦茬大豆在夏季作物中的比重,形成冬麦基础上的夏大豆和夏玉米隔年轮作或一年大豆、两年玉米的轮作。此外,开展盐碱地种植大豆示范,扩大耕地轮作实施面积,引导东北地区农民合理安排种植结构,在适宜地区扩大大豆、玉米带状复合种植示范面积。

(v)     Improve Feed Grain Utilization Efficiency and Reduce Grain Loss and Waste


In terms of feed grain utilization, we should optimize the combination efficiency of grain production and animal husbandry, improve livestock raising and breeding efficiency, and increase the feed grain conversion rate. During the process of grain production, we should improve support for the research and development of low-loss grain harvesting machinery, equipment, and technology; strengthen the training and assessment of agricultural machinery operators and improve their skills and capabilities; accelerate the construction of high-quality farmland and related supporting facilities, improve storage conditions, and reduce losses during the harvest and storage; improve relevant standards and laws, and ensure that “there are laws to follow and they are strictly enforced” in all stages of the grain production chain; We should further deepen the reform for strategic grain reserve and auction mechanisms, and increase the speed of strategic stock rotation; And we must improve the level of comprehensive utilization of grain by-products. In terms of food consumption, we should promote dietary nutrition education, publish dietary guidelines suitable for different populations, guide residents to form scientific, low-carbon dietary habits, and gradually address issues such as the coexistence of undernutrition and food excess, as well as extravagance and waste when consuming food.

在饲料粮利用方面,优化种养结合布局,提高养殖效率,提升饲料粮转化率。在粮食生产环节, 加大低损耗粮食收获机械设备和技术的研发力度; 加强农机手的培训和考核,提升农机手技能和素质;加快高标准农田建设及其相关配套设施,改善仓储条件,降低收储环节损耗;完善相关标准和法律,在粮食产业链各环节都做到“有法可依、执法必严”;进一步深化政策性粮食储备和拍卖机制改革,提高政策性库存轮换速度;提高粮食副产物综合利用程度。在粮食消费环节,普及膳食营养知识,发布适合不同人群特点的膳食指南,引导居民形成科学、低碳的膳食习惯,逐步解决居民营养不足与过剩并存、铺张浪费等问题。

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梅旭荣 (Mei Xurong), 唐华俊 (Tang Huajun), 王济民 (Wang Jimin), 王秀东 (Wang Xiudong), 吴孔明 (Wu Kongming), 闫琰 (Yan Yan). "Research on National Food Security Strategy in the Context of “Dual Circulation” [“双循环”背景下国家粮食安全战略研究]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Strategic Study of CAE [中国工程科学], August 31, 2023

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