I.       Introduction

Food concerns the national economy and people’s livelihood, and food security is an important foundation for national security. ¹ With the proposal of the new food security concept of “basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security of staple grains” (谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全) and the in-depth implementation of the strategy of “sustainable farmland use and innovative application of agricultural technology” (藏粮于地、藏粮于技), China’s overall grain production capacity has been significantly improved, and China’s level of food security has been greatly strengthened. It should also be noted that while China’s grain production has been increasing year after year, problems are becoming increasingly evident in terms of “taking over superior land for non-agriculture usage while compensating for it with low-quality land” (占优补劣) in utilizing land resources, serious loss of grain-planting labor force, structural imbalance between supply and demand in different grain varieties, and non-point source pollution caused by residues of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. With the impact of deglobalization and intensified geopolitical conflicts, the world’s grain production capacity and trade balance have been disrupted, and overall food security problems have become more serious. ²

Building a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay and promoting the interplay between domestic and international economic engagement (“dual circulation”) is a major measure for China to actively address the uncertainty of the world economy and global landscape, as well as a way to provide new development paths for ensuring national food security. Taking the perspective of “dual circulation”, a series of studies have been conducted around the necessity of ensuring food security, the challenges faced in ensuring food security, and the development path on this front: China is a country with a large population, and ensuring food security is an important prerequisite for achieving economic growth and social stability; ³ in the context of “dual circulation”, China has maintained close cooperation with the international agricultural product market, but problems such as shortages of water and land resources, high grain production costs, low economic benefits, limited space for increasing output, the imbalance between grain supply and demand, and high external dependence still exist.⁴ We propose countermeasures including improving the institutional support system for food security, focusing on improving domestic production, deepening supply-side reforms for grain, and forging a stable trade channel for grain imports. ⁵

The author believes that when it comes to food security issues under the new development pattern of “dual circulation”, it is necessary to comprehensively grasp the current situation of national food security, identify the correlation between building a food security system and the opportunities in developing the “dual circulation” pattern, design strategic paths and action plans for food security from multiple perspectives and unswervingly follow the roadmap for food security with Chinese characteristics. This paper focuses on demonstrating the need to form a national food development strategy from perspectives of food production resource security, variety structure security, and ecological security, so as to provide a reference for ensuring national food security.

II.     Basic Landscape for National Food Security in the Context of “Dual Circulation”

(i)     The Gap Between Grain Supply and Demand is Widening, and the Volume of Imported Feed Grain is Rising

In recent years, China’s grain import volume has grown rapidly, and the risk of agriculture supply being placed in a “stranglehold position” has increased. In order to objectively reflect China’s actual food security landscape from 2000 to 2022, the article has collected grain import and export data exclusively from the General Administration of Customs, and data such as grain output and cropland area are from the National Bureau of Statistics. China’s grain imports increased from 1.36×10⁷ tons in 2000 to 1.47×10⁸ tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 11.44%. Over the same period, China’s food self-sufficiency rate dropped from 93.6% in 2000 to 82.4% in 2022. In terms of feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley), driven by the rising consumption demand for livestock products, China’s demand for feed grains continued to grow, the gap between supply and demand continued to expand, and import dependence showed a rigid uptick. In 2000, the cropland of feed grains rapidly increased from 3.59×10⁸ mu (1 mu≈666.7 m²) to a peak of 6.87×10⁸ mu in 2015, dropping again to 6.65×10⁸ mu in 2021. Feed grain output increased from 1.11×10⁸ in 2000 to 2.77×10⁸ t in 2021. In 2021, the net import volume was 5.02×10⁷ t, and the external dependence rate reached 15.35%. Among these changes, the trend of change for corn’s cropland and yield is consistent with the overall trends for feed grain. The total output of corn rapidly increased from 1.06×10⁸ t in 2000 to 2.65×10⁸ t in 2015, before falling back down due to the impact of corn destocking and returning to 2.73×10⁸ t in 2021. The net export volume of corn was approximately 1.05×10⁷ t in 2000.  This turned into a net import in 2010, with the net import volume increasing rapidly after 2019 to reach 2.84×10⁷ t in 2021, an external trade dependence rate of 9.42%.

(ii)     Soybean Cropland Area and Output Growth have Stagnated, and Dependence on Foreign Countries Remains High

Since 2000, soybeans have become an important source of edible oil and feed ingredients. As the consumer demand for edible oil and meat continues to grow, soybean demand has remained high and continues to increase, and soybean imports have also been rising rapidly. In 2000, China had a total cropland for soybeans of approximately 1.4×10⁸ mu. Impacted by the relatively low profitability of domestic planting and the lower price of soybeans from abroad, the cropland for soybeans continued to decline, falling to its lowest level of 1.02×10⁸ mu in 2015. Since then, as the state has increased support for the soybean industry, the cropland has increased, rising to 1.54×10⁸ mu in 2022. In terms of soybean output, soybean per-unit yield has shown a slow and fluctuating growth trend, from 110.4 kg/mu in 2000 to 131.69 kg/mu in 2022. Similar to the trend of change in cropland area, total soybean output fell from 1.54×10⁷ t in 2000 to its low point of 1.236×10 ⁷ t in 2015. It then saw a volatile rebound, reaching 2.028×10⁷ t in 2022. In terms of the soybean trade, China’s net import volume of soybeans rapidly increased from 1.02×10⁷ t in 2000 to a peak of 1×10⁸ t. In 2021, affected by the income deficit of pressed oil companies and pig breeders, the demand for soybeans decreased, leading net imports of soybeans to have fallen to 9.65×10⁷ tons. China’s external dependence rate for soybeans increased from 39.84% in 2000 to 85.47% in 2021. Due to the increase in domestic soybean production, foreign dependence fell to 81.78% in 2022, but the risk remained to be high.

(iii)    The Consumption Structure of Chinese Residents is Rapidly Changing, and the Supply-Demand Imbalance of Protein Feed Supply is Escalating

The consumption level of Chinese residents continues to increase, and the demand for meat, eggs, milk, and other proteins has been increasing rapidly, causing a substantial increase in demand for feed. In terms of the grain consumption structure, the proportion of edible grains has continued to decrease, and the proportion of feed grains has increased significantly. In 2021, China’s per capita consumption of meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products was 69.6 kg, 24.1 kg, 42.5 kg, and 22.8 kg respectively. Subtracting the losses and inedible parts along the entire production chain, the per capita animal protein consumption is still 37.7 g/d, which is five times higher than the 6.5 g/d in 1978, and is 13.7% higher than the average global consumption level and 29.5% higher than the average level in Asia. Specifically, per capita pork consumption increased from 13.3 kg in 2000 to 26.9 kg in 2022, an increase of 102.2%. The upgrade of residents’ consumption structure has put more pressure on China’s feed grain supply shortage. In particular, raw materials for protein feed need to be imported in large quantities. The sharp increase in external dependence has become a bottleneck restricting the high-quality development of China’s livestock industry.

(iv)    Shortage of Water and Land Resources for Grain Production, and the Fixed Constraints in Environmental Endowments have Become Increasingly Evident

The situation for the protection of cultivated land and water resources in China is severe. Looking at cultivated land resources, the problems of degradation, acidification, and salinization of traditionally advantageous cultivated land resources are prominent. There are also serious problems of soil compaction and soil erosion. The issue of the thinning cultivatable land in major grain-producing areas is also serious. The continued expansion of the urban population has further intensified the conflict between the supply and demand of construction land and cropland. ⁶ In addition, the extensive use of cultivated land not only reduces the efficiency of production elements and intensifies non-point source pollution of the soil, but also further increases the risk of land desertification (土地沙化) and general desertification (荒漠化), posing severe challenges to the low-carbon and green transformation of Chinese agriculture. In 2022, the fertilizer and pesticide utilization rates for China’s three major food crops – rice, wheat, and corn –were 41.3% and 41.8% respectively, lower than the rates in other countries and regions including the United States and Europe. ⁷ Looking at water resources, China’s water resources distribution is not aligned with its grain production capacity. The northern region accommodates 18.8% of the country’s water resources, while the southern region accounts for 81.2%. However, the center of gravity of China’s crop structure is moving northward year by year. At the same time, the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in China is lower than the level of 0.7 to 0.8 in developed countries. The extensive and inefficient water usage for irrigation has exacerbated water shortages. ⁸ Over the long term, as hard constraints of resources and the environment tighten themselves, China must maintain a fragile balance between food supply and demand.

II.     Major Challenges and Risks Facing China’s Food Security in the Context of “Dual Circulation”

(i)      Major Challenges Facing Food Security

1. Large Domestic Feed Grain Supply Shortage, Concentrated Import Sources of Raw Materials for Protein Feed, and Difficulty in Finding Alternatives

First, domestic supply of feed grains in China is insufficient. The majority of raw materials for protein feed need to be imported, and high external dependence has become a prominent shortcoming in ensuring China’s food security. China’s protein feed raw materials are mainly soybean meal, but China’s self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is less than 20% and soybean meal is heavily dependent on imports. In 2022, the soybean import volume was 9.11×10⁷ t, accounting for 62% of total grain imports.

Second, import sources for China’s protein feed raw material are relatively concentrated, mainly from countries such as Brazil, the United States, Argentina, Peru, and Canada, and there exists certain supply chain risks. In 2021, the amount of protein feed raw materials (mainly soybeans) imported by China from Brazil was 5.81×10⁷ t, accounting for 60.3% of total soybean imports, and the equivalent protein amount is approximately 2.04×10⁷ t. The amount of protein feed raw materials (soybeans, soybean meal, meat and bone meal, and fish meal) imported from the United States was 3.26×10⁷ t, with an equivalent protein amount of 1.15×10⁷ t. The amount of protein feed raw materials (soybeans) imported from Argentina was 3.75×10⁶ t, accounting for 3.9% of total soybean imports, with an equivalent protein amount of 1.32×10⁶ t (see Figure 1). Under the impact of the current increase in international trade risks, it is no longer possible to ensure the security of the feed grain supply chain simply by relying on international trade.

Third, in terms of protein raw materials, alternatives for domestic feed currently face many difficulties. Problems such as the difficulty in the efficient utilization and industrialization of fermented feed, subpar application maturity of utilizing waste residue resources, prominent safety issues in converting leftover food into feed, the lack of systematic planning for the utilization of insect proteins, lack of commercialization precedents of bacterial protein fermented with one-carbon-atom gas, and the lack of bacteria varieties for yeast-based biological feed have hindered the effective substitution of domestic protein feed raw materials.

2. Imbalanced Growth for Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, as well as Demand-Resource Mismatch in Regions

First, the planting structure is unbalanced. At present, China’s staple grain has a high degree of security, but there has been a large shortage of feed grains. China’s feed grain deficit will be 9.04×10⁷ t in 2025 and 8.2×10⁷ t in 2030, and its protein feed gap will be 5.87×10⁷ t in 2025 and 6.05×10⁷ t in 2030. There is a shortage of high-quality forage such as whole-plant silage corn, forage oats, annual ryegrass, and alfalfa. The shortage of high-quality forage will be 5.71×10⁷ t in 2025 and 3.59×10⁷ t in 2030.

Second, the livestock product and animal husbandry structure are unbalanced, with grain-fed pigs and poultry as the mainstay and grass-fed livestock (cattle and sheep) accounting for only a small proportion. Pork and poultry production have always accounted for more than 80% of total meat output, while the proportion of grass-fed livestock has remained around only 20%. Pork consumption accounts for 50% to 60% of the total meat consumption. China’s per capita pork consumption is twice the global per capita pork consumption.

Third, the grain production and animal husbandry industries are not aligned with the bearing capacity of regional resources. The spatial layout of grain production does not match the bearing capacity of water and soil resources. The center of gravity of China’s grain production continues to move northward and is becoming concentrated in northern areas with less water and more land. This has intensified the spatial mismatch between grain production and water and soil resources. The flow of grain has changed from going “south to north” to “north to south.” ⁹ China’s water, sunlight, and heat resources are more abundant in the south and less abundant in the north. The production overload on water and land resources in the main grain-producing areas of Northeast and North China has aggravated the current water crisis in the North and triggered a series of functional degradation and environmental problems. Grain planting cycles in major grain-producing areas in the South have slowed down from two harvests a year or three harvests a year to only one harvest a year, resulting in insufficient utilization of sunlight, heat, water, and soil resources. Looking at the regional layout of the grain production industry, as well as the livestock and poultry husbandry industry, the spatial layout of animal husbandry and grain production has been mismatched. The center of gravity of China’s feed grain production has moved northward. Feed resources are scarcer in the South, especially southern China, but it is an area favorable for poultry husbandry, with a higher advantage index than other regions. The proportion of farmers engaged in both grain production and animal husbandry is relatively low, and not many farmers have signed the accommodation agreement to use livestock and poultry manure for developing the grain production industry. The Northeast region is rich in feed grain resources and has strong livestock and poultry manure accommodation capabilities. However, it has a small population and a small market for livestock products, so its livestock and poultry husbandry industry is underdeveloped. There is a shortage of feed grain along the southeastern coast, but it has a dense population, an immense market for livestock and poultry products, well-developed livestock and poultry farming, and limited environmental bearing capacity.

3. Many Restrictive Factors Exist for Combining Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, and it is Difficult to Promote Green and Healthy Animal Husbandry Models.

First, the proportion of farmers engaging in combined grain production and animal husbandry has dropped sharply, and their enthusiasm remains low. From 1986 to 2017, the proportion of farmers engaging in combined planting and animal husbandry in China dropped from 71.24% to 12.15%, the proportion of farmers engaged in only grain production increased rapidly from 25.6% to 56.63%, and the proportion of farmers raising farm animals stabilized at around 5.49%. Another large group of farmers has completely withdrawn from agricultural production of both planting and animal husbandry. ¹⁰

Second, many standalone measures have been introduced for the development of the planting and animal husbandry industries, but the synergy produced by policy coordination is insufficient. In recent years, China has successively carried out projects such as the standardized construction of livestock farms, the construction of biogas projects, and the comprehensive reutilization of straw projects. Although these efforts have seen some initial successes, the overall results are not significant due to the lack of systematic design and policy coordination. For example, problems such as livestock and poultry manure pollution and the illegal burning of straw in rural areas are still prominent. ¹¹

Third, the chain of stakeholders is incomplete and there is a lack of effective operating mechanisms for waste reutilization. Due to limitations in long-term operation mechanisms, such as unsatisfactory straw collection, storage, and transportation systems and difficulties in transferring biogas-generated power to the power grid, the comprehensive utilization of waste collected from the grain production and animal husbandry industries still has high product costs, low levels of commercialization, and low enthusiasm of participation among farmers. ¹²

4. The Insufficient Resilience and Shock Tolerance of the Food Security System

First, the constraints of water and land resources on domestic grain production are tightening, farmers’ willingness to grow grain remains low, and capital investment is more inclined to non-agricultural industries. This has seriously threatened the stability of China’s grain supply and has put greater pressure on the continued growth of grain output.

Second, the supply chain of the international grain market is insufficiently resistant to risks, making it more difficult to ensure food security through the international market. When faced with sudden major risks, all major grain-producing countries may strictly control and reduce their grain exports, to ensure the bottom line of their own food security. China’s grain imports mainly rely on long-distance sea transportation, and in areas along the straits, frequent local conflicts can easily lead to supply chain disruptions. ¹³

Third, investment in agricultural science and technology (S&T) is low, which undermines the supporting role of S&T for agriculture. China’s agricultural S&T investment intensity is only 0.66%, far lower than the industrial average of 2.23%. This is also far lower than that of developed countries such as Japan and the United States, and also substantially behind that of developing countries such as Brazil and Chile. The persistent low investment intensity in agricultural S&T has resulted in the lack of breakthroughs in agricultural S&T innovation and a serious insufficiency of support from S&T. This has made it difficult for grain production to break through the rigid constraints of insufficient water and land resources, which may undermine grain yield per unit area improvement and cause soaring production costs. In this sense, agricultural S&T did not effectively support improvements in grain production efficiency and profitability.

Fourth, there is a lack of comprehensive emergency plans to deal with major risk impacts and ensure food security. In recent years, major public health events, natural disasters, regional conflicts, and other major emergencies have had a major impact on the food security system. It has also revealed that China has yet to establish comprehensive response schemes to protect food security during major risk events. It has also proved the urgent need to enhance the resilience of the food security system. ¹⁴

(ii)     Major Risks Facing Food Security

1. Increasing Uncertainties in International Society Reveal the Potential Risk of Grain Trade and Core Technology Restrictions

First, uncertainties in the global grain market have increased, driving up risks for China as it imports grains through the international market. Looking at overall global grain supply and demand, food security challenges mainly come from the grain trade and distribution system. The United States, the European Union, Russia, and other countries and regions account for a high proportion of total global grain outputs and exports. Due to increasing uncertainties of the international situation and other factors such as high dependence on imports for some agricultural products, highly concentrated sources of grain imports, relatively little diversity in transportation channels, and a weak voice power in the international food market, the possibility of China facing food security risks has further increased. ¹⁵

Second, the instability of the global landscape has also had a major impact on the trade of grain production elements such as oil and fertilizers. For example, due to geopolitical conflicts, the rise in international crude oil prices has led to an increase in the cost of agricultural machinery operations, which has had a significant negative impact on farmers’ enthusiasm for purchasing and using agricultural machinery, and particularly, it has imposed a strong impact on long-distance trans-regional machinery operation. ^{16 17}

Third, affected by Sino-U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, the restrictions on core technologies related to grain production have escalated. At present, China has a high level of dependence on foreign sources for advanced agricultural machinery used during domestic agricultural production. Most of the chips for imported agricultural machinery and agricultural product processing equipment are supplied by foreign countries. High-end instruments such as cryo-genic electron microscopy machines, nuclear magnetic resonance facilities, mass spectrometry machines, and high-throughput sequencers are highly dependent on imports. If restrictions are placed on imports, this will constitute a critical constraint on China’s grain production and cutting-edge research on basic sciences.

2. Mismatch Between Grain Productivity and Resources Increases the Risk of Resource Overload in Major Production Areas

As the area of cultivated land decreases, the crisis of water resource shortage intensifies, and the center of grain production moves northwards, the problem has become increasingly alarming in terms of the mismatch between regional grain productivity and water and land resources. In particular, the risk of resource overload in the main grain-producing areas in the north has escalated. ¹⁸ First, the reduction in the area of cultivated land coupled with the degradation in land quality has limited the potential for increasing grain output. The area of cultivated land in China is declining. From 2009 to 2019, the area of cultivated land nationwide decreased by 1.13×10⁸ mu. The cultivated land area in regions that are not major grain-production areas decreased by 8.33×10⁸mu, with a decline (12.06%) much higher than that in the main grain-producing areas (2.2%). In addition, due to the excessive exploitation of cultivated land in major grain-producing areas, the quality of cultivated land has been significantly degraded. For example, the area of black soil in the northeast has decreased and the soil continues to become “thinner, shallower, and harder.” The organic matter in the soil has decreased by more than 30% relative to the amount 30 years ago, and the black soil layer dropped from 80 to 100 cm in thickness at the early stage of grain production to 20 to 30 cm.

Second, the total amount of water resources is insufficient and is misaligned with the spatial layout of grain production, which restricts the potential to increase grain output. Since the 1980s, the share of grain output produced in the southern region with abundant water and heat resources has been continuously declining, while the proportion of grain output in the northern region with serious water shortages has been continuously increasing. As the main grain-producing areas, the seven northern provinces (Heilongjiang, Henan, Shandong, Jilin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning) have on average accounted for only 10.84% of the country’s water resources over many years, but they occupied 50.91% of gross grain output in 2020. The shortage of water resources forced the northern region to significantly over-exploit its groundwater. The cumulative deficit caused by groundwater over-extraction in North China has reached 1.8×10¹¹ m³ approximately, making the region the largest groundwater funnel (地下水漏斗区) area in the world. The overloading of water and land resources in major grain-producing areas poses major potential risks to ensure stable grain production.

3. Low Grain Production Profitability Dampens Farmers’ Enthusiasm for Growing Crops

First, the insufficient scaled effects in crop production lead to insufficient motivation and reproduction capacity among farmers during grain production. China’s status quo and agricultural conditions entail that small farmers will be the basic entities in the Chinese agricultural structure for a long time. For example, there are currently 230 million farming households in the country, and the average cultivated land area per household is 7.8 mu, showing little potential to achieve economies of scale. Second, due to the double-sided pressure of grain prices and the cost “floor,” the potential to increase grain profitability is limited. As an important commodity for the people’s livelihood, the price of grain has long been predominantly held stable and it is subject to the “ceiling” of low international food prices, so there is limited room for domestic grain prices to rise. However, the increase in costs of agricultural materials, land, and labor has driven up the overall cost of food production. For example, the average total cost per mu for the three major staple foods of rice, corn, and wheat increased from 936.42 yuan in 2012 to 1,143.73 yuan in 2020. Net profits from grain production showed an overall downward trend from 2012 to 2020, and the average profit margins of wheat, corn, and soybeans were all negative from 2016 to 2020. For the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s grain production costs will remain high, net profits will remain near zero, and the gap in benefits between growing grains and cash crops, as well as between grain cultivation and migrant working will grow even wider, and the pressure to ensure that “neither party suffers losses” (两个不吃亏, the two parties are farmers and agricultural counties) in grain production will persist.

4. Frequent Occurrences of Natural and Biological Disasters Have Increased Food Production Risks

At present, global warming continues its progress and extreme weather events occur frequently. The accompanying secondary disasters as well as pests and diseases will further increase the risk of production losses. First, climate warming will increase the risk of crop yield reduction. It is expected that, by the end of the 21st century, climate change will reduce the yield of major crops by 1% to 3% every 10 years, with corn production decreasing by approximately 2.3%, soybean production by about 3.3%, and wheat and rice production decreasing by approximately 1.3% and 0.7%. Second, climate warming will lead to more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting extreme weather events such as extreme heat, precipitation, and drought in more regions around the world. It is expected that, by the end of the 21st century, the probability of severe drought in the northern, northeastern, and southern regions of China will increase by 25% or more. Third, more regions will suffer from crop diseases and pests with higher frequency due to climate warming. Pathogen groups and pests that could affect important crops are spreading to higher latitudes at an average rate of 2.7 km per year.

IV.    Analysis of Overall National Food Security Landscape in the Context of “Dual Circulation”

Overall, affected by the dual risks of geopolitical instability and global supply chain disruptions, countries have become increasingly concerned about ensuring the security of agricultural products, particularly grain commodities. Using food issues as levers and bargaining chips has become a growing trend in contemporary international competition. The impact of deglobalization on agricultural product prices far exceeds the influence posed by traditional supply and demand issues, which has led to countries maintaining excess reserves of agricultural products. Facing the complex and constantly changing international macroeconomic and food security situation, it is necessary to re-examine China’s strategic priorities for food security in the context of “dual circulation.”

(i)      Per Capita Grain Demand and Total Grain Demand May Continue to Rise

As China builds a well-off society in an all-round way, the dietary structure of residents continues to transform and upgrade, with growth in animal products consumption driving the growth in demand for feed grains. According to the estimation of the China Agricultural Sector Model (CASM), China’s per capita grain demand will drop from 205 kg in 2022 to 187 kg in 2035. By 2035, the output of pork, beef, mutton, chicken, eggs, and dairy will reach 5.56×10⁷ t, 8.09×10⁶ t, 6.1×10⁶ t, 2.06×10⁷ t, 3.17×10⁷ t, and 5.17×10⁷ t respectively. Driven by growth in livestock product output, China’s per capita feed grain demand will increase from 180 kg in 2022 to 195 kg in 2035, and per capita grain demand (excluding inventory changes) will increase from 568 kg in 2022 to 599 kg in 2035. As a result, China’s total grain demand (including inventory changes) will increase from 8.3×10⁸ t in 2022  to 8.57×10⁸ t in 2035. Specifically, the demand for corn will increase from 3×10⁸ t to 3.1×10⁸ t and the demand for soybeans will increase from 1.11×10⁸ t to 1.28×10⁸ t. In 2035, China’s per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country, people’s per capita income will continue to grow, and there will still be considerable room for people’s dietary structures to grow more sophisticated.

(ii)     Grain Production May Grow Steadily and Grain Self-Sufficiency May Improve Progressively

By estimation, China’s grain output will grow steadily, the gap between grain supply and demand will show a narrowing trend, and the grain self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase to 85%. According to the estimation of CASM, if the current grain production policies remain unchanged, China’s total grain output will grow from 6.87×10⁸ t in 2022 to 7.16×10⁸ t, an increase of about 2.9×10⁷ t. Combining grain demand and grain production data, China’s net grain imports will show a downward trend, but will stabilize itself at 1.4×10⁸ t or above. In 2035, net grain imports are expected to be 1.41×10⁸ t. Specifically, the net import volume of corn will reach 2.59×10⁷ t and the net import volume of soybeans will reach 8.91×10⁷ t. China’s grain self-sufficiency rate will increase from 81.2% in 2022 to 83.5% in 2035. Specifically, its corn self-sufficiency rate will increase from 91.2% in 2022 to 91.7% in 2035, and soybean will increase from 16.7% in 2022 to 30.6% in 2035. If more effective support policies for grain production are adopted and grain production potential is further tapped, it is projected that China’s total grain output could reach a higher level in 2035 to 7.3×10⁸ t, boosting the food self-sufficiency rate.

(iii)    China Has to Focus on How Its Imports Affect Other Developing Countries

Under the new development mode characterized by “dual circulation,” we must focus on the impact of China’s food imports on other developing countries. On the one hand, the international market has consistent expectations regarding China’s soybean imports, and China’s future soybean imports will have a limited impact on the international market. On the other hand, corn is an important grain and the staple food in many countries and regions in Africa, Asia, and Central and South America. In 2020, apart from China, the top 10 corn-importing countries included developing countries such as Vietnam, Colombia, Malaysia, and Peru. China’s large-quantity import of corn may cause global corn price fluctuations and pose certain food security risks to developing countries that rely on corn as their staple food.

(iv)    We Must Ensure Staple Grain and Important Grain Variety Self-Sufficiency Rates Are Above the Bottom Lines

The prerequisite for utilizing the “two markets” (两个市场, international and domestic markets) is that we must identify the strategic bottom line for energy resources used for domestic production. Therefore, we must adhere to the following bottom lines: our self-sufficiency rate for staple grains must be no lower than 97%, cereal self-sufficiency rate no lower than 90%, grain self-sufficiency rate no lower than 80%, corn no lower than 90%, and soybean no lower than 30%. Before 2035, based on the current grain output of 6.8×10⁸ t, we must ensure that we move up at least one level to 7×10⁸ t and strive to reach 7.3×10⁸ t. If our grain output can reach 7.3×10⁸ t in 2035, our grain self-sufficiency rate will reach 85%, and our food security will be better ensured. Calculating based on the current 6.8×10⁸ t of comprehensive production capacity, future grain output must increase by about 5×10⁷ t, among which, the output of corn and soybean needs to increase by 3×10⁷ t and 2×10⁷ t. To this end, we must further tap the grain production potential of the southern region and make full use of potential land resources of desert grasslands and saline-alkali lands. In addition, in order to ensure the supply of protein feed, we can also tap the production capacity of cottonseed, rapeseed, peanuts, small oilseed varieties, and their processed products, and make full use of residue, aquatic and livestock products, herb plants, woody plants, and root and tuber feed resources, as well as new protein feed resources such as Clostridium autoethanogenum protein and insect processed products to achieve 2.04 × 10⁷ t of alternative protein feed (equivalent to 6.09 × 10⁷ t of soybeans).

V.     National Food Security Philosophy, Goals, and Strategic Paths

(i)      Overall Philosophy

On the basis of the strategic deployments for building a strong agricultural country, the new development stage, and the new “dual circulation” development mode, we must grasp China’s resource endowment conditions in a scientific manner, attach great importance to the problem of protein supply shortage, and comprehensively improve food security resilience and the overall level of food security by making efforts in two areas: improving protein supply capacity and improving protein utilization efficiency. Specifically, the greatest problem facing China’s food security in the context of “dual circulation” is the insufficient supply of feed corn and soybeans, and the most critical issue is to address constraints in protein supply. To this end, we can improve our protein supply capacity through multiple channels to achieve protein security. At the same time, we can start by improving the capabilities of grain production and cultivation, optimizing its layout, and improving the resilience of the food system, in order to build a food security system that may reach both long-term and short-term goals. We should also improve the reliability of domestic and international supply and reduce the impact of uncertain factors. Eventually, based on the high production efficiency and stable supply chains, these measures will improve China’s autonomy and control capabilities over food security and long-term sustainable development.

(ii)     Overall Goals

1. Improve Comprehensive Production Capacity for Protein Feed, Promote the Import Diversification of Protein Products, and Strengthen the Global Supply Chain for Protein Feed

We must strengthen the fundamental basis of domestic production, fully implement the national food security strategy, ensure a sufficient supply of cropland for grain production, launch soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement projects, promote the strip intercropping of soybeans and corn, and strive to achieve the goal of increasing soybean harvest by an extra season with no reduction in corn yield. ¹⁹ We must progressively improve food supply assurance capabilities, achieve an overall balance between food supply and demand, ensure absolute security of staple grain supply, achieve autonomy and control over overall food security, and guarantee the strategic bottom lines for staple grains and food self-sufficiency rates. ²⁰ Following the guidance of “ensuring effective self-sufficiency and smooth international circulation,” we must further clarify the priority for domestic feed resource supply and international trade. We must formulate plans to ensure the supply of China’s protein feed resources, clarify the goals, tasks, and measures for improving domestic comprehensive production capacity and moderating imports of protein feed resources by varieties, establish diversified, stable, and reliable import channels, and promote diversification in the soybean import markets. We must make overall arrangements for the strategic plan of “going global” and strengthen the global supply chain of protein feed. We must focus on improving the exploration and utilization of new protein feed resources, promote the efficient utilization and conversion of industrial and agricultural by-products and waste products based on enzymology, and strive to make up for more than 50% of the protein feed shortfall.

2. Optimize Grain Production Structure and Adjust Regional Layout, Improve Production Efficiency and Capacity

Following the philosophy of building a “big agriculture sector”, a “big market”, and a “big, nationwide resource utilization arrangement plan”, we must promote the adjustment of the grain production and animal husbandry structure, develop food resources in a comprehensive and multi-aspect manner, develop rich and diverse food varieties, achieve a balance between supply and demand of various types of food, and better meet the increasingly diversified food consumption demands of the people. On the basis of ensuring food security, we must promote a variety of production models that can improve output efficiency and land resource utilization; accelerate the transformation of grain production from focusing on “quantity” at the expense of resource consumption to improving production “quality” with green consumption as its goal; actively promote the upgrade of the consumption structure and build a food variety structure that adapts to market demand; improve the development positioning and supply of the forage industry and develop the sector under the philosophy of “planting grass means planting grain, planting grass can increase land resources, and planting grass will attract high profits.”

3. Develop Circular Agriculture Combining Grain Production and Animal Husbandry, Optimize Green and Healthy Animal Husbandry Models that Incorporate Grain Production, Reduce the Level of Protein Feed Consumption, and Improve Animal Husbandry Efficiency

On the premise of protecting the ecosystem, we must turn more land into cultivated land. We should plant grains and cash crops, graze animals, and develop fishery and forestry where conditions meet, in order to form a modern agricultural production structure and regional layout that match the bearing capacity of resources and the environment. ²¹ Specifically, we should combine grain production and animal husbandry as a major agricultural mode in counties, by factoring in local conditions, as well as promoting the low-cost treatment of livestock and poultry manure, returning it for use on-site or on nearby farmland. Based on the bearing capacity of the land, we must reasonably determine the planting scale and animal husbandry scale and promote the development of standardized forage base projects of appropriate scale and in line with local ecological conditions, so as to make up for the shortage of livestock feed. For critical control points of circular agriculture that integrate grain production and animal husbandry, we must carry out research and information-sharing campaigns and leverage specialized forage companies as service providers to support the integration efforts. We must expand the practice of leveraging animal husbandry to support the grain production sector (以养定种) and use manure instead of chemical fertilizers. We must adapt to the requirements of agricultural structural adjustment, re-prioritize agricultural S&T research and development, and establish a comprehensive grain S&T innovation system. By optimizing the structure of the grain production and animal husbandry industry, we must establish a grain and livestock production chain and supply chain system that is compatible with the mode of “dual circulation.” Through the resource circulation of the grain production and animal husbandry industries, we will establish a sustainable development circulation system integrating the two sectors, develop moderate-scale family farms that combine grain production and animal husbandry, build a nutrient management system with strict nutrient management plans, design a proper layout for the livestock industry, realize the integration of grain production and animal husbandry in nearby areas, build a modernized grain and animal product treatment system, reduce the consumption of refined crops, and reduce costs along the entire production chain. ²²

4. Enhance Domestic Production Capacity, Improve the Utilization of International Resources and Markets, Enhance Food Security Resilience as well as Risk Management Capabilities

For domestic circulation, we should be mindful of the bottom line of food security, the “big food” concept, enabling food security with S&T, and other strategies; we must increase the supply of high-quality agricultural products, improve the level of agricultural development, and strengthen policy targeting and coordination, so as to improve food supply stability; we should also improve grain production capacity, increase grain quality and diversity, and develop smart agriculture to ensure food security resilience. Under the “dual circulation” model, we must make full use of both domestic and international resources and markets in terms of S&T advancement, policy formulation, and human resources development, effectively integrating food security resilience into the new “dual circulation” development model through leveraging diversified import channels and our deployment of overseas grain-related production chains, strengthen China’s food security resilience under the new context, and further improve the risk management and control levels. ²³

(iii)    Strategic path

1. Address the Weak Points and Improve the Comprehensive Production Capacity of Protein Feed

On the premise of ensuring the absolute security of staple grain production, ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grains, and optimizing the crop variety structure and regional layout, we must accelerate the improvement in output and quality of China’s soybean production, continue to drive up the soybean self-sufficiency rate, and ensure that the self-sufficiency rate of oilseed crops increases by 1 percentage point every year. At the same time, we must moderately expand the planting area of oilseed crops, such as peanuts and rapeseed, and in addition to increasing the supply of edible oils to meet increasing demands, edible oil by-products such as rapeseed meal and peanut meal can also provide protein feed for livestock raising. We should properly restore the multi-cropping system in the south, such as in southern Jiangsu and Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, and northern Yunnan, making full use of unplanted fields in winter to develop the multi-cropping mode for rice. In addition, based on the layout and development needs of the cattle and sheep industry, we should appropriately increase the planting of high-quality forage grasses such as whole plant corn silage, forage oats, annual ryegrass, and alfalfa to provide high-quality feed supply for the structural adjustment of the livestock industry.

2. Ensure the Effective Supply of Protein Feed and Secure Replacements for Protein

We must promote the industrialization of unconventional and new protein production technologies, further enhance the effective supply of protein feed, and improve the supply level of protein feed in China. Adopting unconventional approaches, we should seek added value in utilizing mixed fodder, improve the quality and efficiency in using grains and their by-products, and promote the R&D and product development of high-value application technologies for other agricultural byproducts. In terms of the development and utilization of new protein feed resources, we must explore new protein feed germplasm resources, leverage microbial protein to address protein shortage, carry out research on fermentation kinetics of different gases and process optimization studies, and promote industrialization to ensure low cost and extensive application of the technologies. In addition, in response to the issue of food waste, we must promote the safe and efficient use of leftover food and promote their conversion into feed.

3. We Must Adjust the Industrial Structure of the Animal Husbandry Industry, Improve Feed Utilization Efficiency, and Properly Increase Protein Supply

We must establish a grain and livestock product production chain and supply chain system adapted to and aligned with the “dual circulation” pattern. To this end, we must adjust the structure of the grain production and animal husbandry industry and optimize the green development model that integrates the two sectors. We must take full account of the regional conditions, make sure the selection of poultry and livestock types for raising is compatible with local high-yield crops, which could be the main materials for animal feed, and minimize extra investment in feed procurement. We must integrate existing agricultural resources, improve the efficiency of forage resource utilization, and further clarify the priority between domestic feed resource supply and international feed trade. We should follow the requirements of “ensuring effective self-sufficiency and smooth international circulation,” formulate plans to ensure the supply of China’s protein feed resources, and clarify the goals, tasks, and measures for improving domestic comprehensive production capacity and moderating imports of protein feed resources by variety. We must implement the import diversification strategy in an orderly manner, actively promote strategic international agricultural cooperation, increase soybean imports from multiple sources, reduce our dependence on a small number of countries, avoid being placed in a “stranglehold” position when certain countries restrict imports of protein resources, promote the building of diversified, stable, and reliable importing channels, and promote the diversification of the soybean import market.

4. Carry Out Research on Key Technologies and Strengthen S&T Support for Protein Supply

We must focus on ensuring the output and supply of important agricultural products such as grains, meet the increasingly diversified consumer demand for nutritious and healthy food, focus on approaches involving biology-based animal husbandry, biofertilizers, biofeed, and biopesticides, conduct research on key technologies, and cultivate a batch of new-generation agricultural biological products. We must strengthen the application of S&T innovation achievements in “grain conservation and loss reduction,” improve the level of grain storage S&T, improve the technology support for grain transportation, promote the digital enablement for decentralized transportation and logistics for raw grains, and create a modern grain transportation system in which various transportation modes coexist and complement each other. We must improve the S&T support for grain processing, actively promote the research and development of technical equipment such as intelligent and clean processing facilities, and comprehensively utilize grain processing by-products. We must step up to achieve technological breakthroughs in protein resources, develop new technologies for seed-sourcing and planting for oilseed crop feeds, and increase the yield of crops and forage to secure more substitutes for soybean meal resources. We must develop technologies such as protein feed resource processing to improve the quality and performance of unconventional protein feed resources.

5. Actively Participate in International Grain Governance and Properly Leverage the International Grain Market

First, we must make good use of international resources and optimize grain imports. We must actively expand the channels for grain imports, focus particularly on importing grain from countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, gradually establish a stable supply chain covering overseas grain inbound transportation and storage, and ensure that grains and other agricultural products are not only “available for purchase” but also have “controllable prices” (控得稳) and are “transportable” (运得回). Second, we must make good use of the international market and cultivate large international grain trading companies. We must establish and improve the global grain supply and demand information system, enhance our control over international grain trade information, and shake off the dependence on a single country’s agricultural information. We must encourage Chinese grain enterprises to “go global,” build a development model for the entire grain production chain by supporting state-owned enterprises, and cultivate mega industry-leading grain enterprises integrating “science, production, supply, and marketing” with international competitiveness. Third, we must make good use of international resources and establish a grain production and supply base. We must actively pursue our role in the global grain production chain and supply chain, encourage qualified enterprises to establish stable overseas food production and supply bases, and further increase our voice on grain issues. Fourth, we must cultivate domestic commodity exchanges, and support them to become globally influential agricultural futures trading markets, enable the futures market to truly reflect international grain price trends, and use it to mitigate the impact of international grain market shocks on domestic grain production.

VI.    Major Project Recommendations for National Food Security

(i)           Grain Production Capacity Improvement Demonstration Projects

We should increase the investment in research on the improvement and upgrading of crops, especially the three main staple varieties, ensure the increase in grain output with high-quality varieties, promote China’s transformation from a country with a large seed industry to one with a powerful seed industry, accelerate the development of new varieties with independent intellectual property rights, break the technological “stranglehold” and strengthen patent protection in the seed industry, and thereby optimize the competitive landscape of the seed industry. We recommend that China should cultivate industry-leading enterprises, enhance the effect of economies of scale in the seed industry, build a collaborative innovation methodology involving “government, industry, academia, research, and application,” strengthen core technology research in the seed industry, make up for the shortcomings at the front end of the production chain, and create innovation momentum for agricultural development. We should strengthen the construction of high-quality grain fields, focus on building grain production areas with specific functions, adhere to an equal emphasis on new cropland exploitation and quality improvement of existing cropland, carry out large-scale construction and quality improvement of different types of land in different regions, and advance the development of high-quality farmland county-wide. ²⁴ At the same time, we should raise the standards for high-quality farmland construction, and prioritize the construction of high-quality farmland in the “two zones” (grain production functional zones and important agricultural product production protection zones), so as to ensure guaranteed harvests and high and stable yields even in cases of droughts and floods. We should guide farmers to plant target crops, and actively create a number of “counties producing 1.5 tons of grain per mu.” We should strengthen the leading role of “sky-to-ground” (天空地) digital agricultural technology integration capabilities in the development of high-quality grain fields and strengthen the construction of infrastructure, hardware equipment, software systems, and public platforms for digital agricultural technologies such as remote sensing networks, Internet of Things (IoT), big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI).

(ii)     New Protein Resource Substitution Projects

We should bolster quality and efficiency improvement in unconventional protein feed resources, develop industrialized integrated technology for the value-added utilization of mixed fodder, carry out demonstration projects of industrialized integrated technology for value-added products, and encourage existing mixed fodder processing enterprises for cotton meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut cake meal to carry out technology upgrades and modification. We should launch industrialized integrated technology demonstration projects to improve the quality and efficiency of grain and by-product utilization and carry out industrialized integrated technology demonstrations for the value-added utilization of grains and their by-products, value-added utilization of grain intensive processing by-products, value-added utilization of residue by-products, the utilization of contaminated grain and by-products, and the overdue stock of grain and by-products. We should strengthen the development and utilization of new protein feed resources, vigorously develop microbial proteins, explore new protein feed germplasm resources, leverage synthetic biology technology, and create high-version synthetic organisms. We should develop small and economical methane gas fermentation equipment and processing technology and develop technology for the efficient production of one-carbon gas-fermented bacterial cell protein by crop residue gasification. We should develop technology to produce insect protein from organic waste such as kitchen waste, fruit and vegetable waste, and manure and promote low-cost and safe production of insect resources such as black soldier flies, fly maggots, and yellow fireflies.

(iii)    Green and Low-carbon Circular Grain Production and Animal Husbandry Projects

Taking agricultural biopharmaceuticals, biofertilizers, and intelligent irrigation equipment manufacturing as breakthrough points, we should integrate land-saving, water-saving, fertilizer-saving, pesticide-saving, energy-saving, and other green and efficient crop production technologies to guide agricultural production to become more green, efficient, resource-efficient, and environment-friendly. We should accelerate the green and low-carbon transition for the grain production industry, improve the utilization efficiency of water, fertilizer, pesticides, and other inputs, promote an agricultural model featuring efficient ecological circulation, and build a green development demonstration zone for the grain production industry. ²⁵ We should strengthen the utilization of livestock and poultry manure as resources, focus on supporting the research and development of technologies and products that convert livestock and poultry manure into protein feed or organic fertilizer, and establish technical specifications for treating wastes as resources and the harmless disposal of manure and urine on different scales and for different livestock species. We should improve resource protection and efficient utilization, and at the same time explore, improve, and promote green and low-carbon production methods. We should promote the integration of planting and animal husbandry industries and develop circular agriculture that integrates planting and animal husbandry.

(iv)    International Grain Resource Exploration and Utilization Projects

We should actively engage in international food security governance and monitoring, identify the position and role of the international market in protecting national security, guarantee the stable supply of external grain supply system, accelerate the incubation of large-scale grain merchants and agricultural enterprise groups with international competitiveness, strengthen the economic and trade relationships along the Belt and Road Initiative and in other key areas, strengthen global food security and agricultural sector governance, and enhance synergy between the domestic and international markets. We should improve the market monitoring system and enhance food security governance capabilities. We should establish and improve the global agricultural trade investment and market monitoring information system and move international risk prevention and control checkpoints to the upstream of the supply chain. We should introduce advanced technologies such as big data, AI, and the IoT, progressively establish a national grain reserve information management system and an international grain information collection system, and achieve the “visible, controllable, and adjustable” coordination of grain reserves and international grain resources. We should establish complementary adjustment mechanisms for commercial reserves of important agricultural products, strengthen relationships and cooperation between major imported crops and major suppliers in the global grain supply chain, and enhance the adjustment and supporting capabilities of commercial reserves.

(v)     Future Food R&D Demonstration Projects

We should explore food resources from multiple aspects and through multiple channels, build a diversified food supply system, and strive to provide richer and more nutritious food resources. We should focus on promoting key and core technologies such as protein resource bioengineering, tap the potential of new protein feed germplasm resources, and leverage microbial protein production to solve the protein shortage problems. Based on the natural chassis cells of one-carbon assimilated microorganisms such as Clostridium autoethanogenum, methanotrophic bacteria, hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria, and microalgae and using synthetic biology technology, we could create higher synthetic organisms that efficiently assimilate one-carbon gas and achieve biological carbon fixation, producing ethanol, acetic acid, fat, bacterial protein, and microalgae protein. We should develop industrialized integration technology for the value-added utilization of mixed fodder and push existing mixed fodder processing enterprises such as those for cotton meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut cake meal to carry out technological upgrades and transformations. In addition, we should build a forest-driven food supply base, give full play to the role of forests as the “reservoir, treasury, granary, and carbon storehouse,” and optimize the layout of the forest-based food industry. We should build a cold-water fishery product supply base, vigorously develop cold-water fishery production and processing, and promote the high-quality development of the industry. We should build cold-region fruit and vegetable production bases, improve the scale and standardization level of facility agriculture, develop agriculture featuring ecological circulation, and form a cold-region fruit and vegetable industry development mode with advanced facilities, green production methods and high quality, high yield and efficiency, as well as coordinated production and marketing.

VII.  Suggested Solutions

(i)      Strengthen the Food Security System Based on the “Dual Circulation” Mode

First, we should advance the import diversification strategy in an orderly manner. While consolidating and improving the stability of major grain import sources, we should actively promote strategic international agricultural cooperation, focus on adjusting the sources of imports for products such as soybeans and rapeseed, build a diversified oilseed import supply system, and promote the diversification of the soybean import channels. We must continue to expand and strengthen economic and trade partnerships with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and actively guide countries with soybean production potential to expand their cropland. Second, we should make full use of foreign land resources, especially the grain and oilseed production resources of neighboring countries, focus on the regions along the Belt and Road Initiative and African countries, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction and agricultural S&T cooperation, promote import channel diversification, actively participate in global agriculture and food security governance, and give full play to the role of the Belt and Road Initiative as a platform for expanding international agricultural cooperation and promoting investment and trade. Third, we should ensure the balance between foreign soybean imports and domestic supply. We should consolidate and expand soybean investment cooperation with Russia, South America, and other countries and regions and explore sustainable soybean cooperation with regions along the Belt and Road Initiative and African countries. We should make full use of the international market and use satellite remote sensing, big data, and other technologies to conduct scientific research and provide early warnings on China’s protein feed resource market conditions, so as to determine the floor and cap for imports. We should improve the self-sufficiency capacity of soybeans, increase production support through cropland expansion, technical support, policy support, and other means, and further improve the standing of large agricultural enterprises in the global protein product industrial chain.

(ii)        Encourage Certain Varieties of Fruits, Vegetables, and Other Products to be Planted on Unconventional Types of Land and Facilities, Providing More Cropland to Ensure Food Security

We should increase the production capacity of marginal land, improve the utilization of saline-alkali land, improve the quality of marginal land, and increase production capacity and economic benefits per unit area. First, we should develop marginal land by improving marginal land production capacity and carrying out saline-alkali land modification and utilization, bolstering and integrating resource conservation, environmental friendliness, and ecological conservation technology models for marginal land, thereby addressing the problems of insufficient cropland areas and quality inconsistency. Second, we should strengthen the protection of cultivated land and adhere to the national “red line” for arable land of 1.8×10⁹ mu. We should set strict standards for converting arable land into non-agricultural construction land and improve the balance between land occupation and compensation (占补平衡). Third, by evaluating water resources and ecological environment conditions, we should select a group of medium and low-quality lands in areas with potential for agricultural development. We should make central and local governments shoulder the cost of land modification according to the preset proportion during the high-quality land construction project, and leverage renovation, terracing, water collection, and irrigation projects, as well as dry farming technology, to speed up the upgrade of medium and low-quality lands. Fourth, adhering to the bottom line of basically no increase in total water usage for agriculture, we should develop oasis agriculture, coordinate the transformation and upgrading of agricultural production with water-saving projects, further develop and expand oasis-based cropland areas along rivers and lakes in arid desert areas in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces, and make full use of the advantages of sufficient sunshine and large temperature differences between day and night to tap the agricultural production potential of oases. Fifth, we should develop facility-driven ecological agriculture, effectively alleviate the land-using conflict between cash crops and food crops, make full use of uncultivated land, and ensure national food security.

(iii)    Promote Diversified and Multi-Channel Development of Oilseed Crops and Ensure a Steady Increase in China’s Self-Sufficiency Rate of Oilseed Crops

First, we should further promote soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement demonstration projects. We should also increase soybean and oilseed production through the implementation of soybean-corn strip-based intercropping, as well as carrying out grain-soybean crop rotation and saline-alkali land-based soybean planting in the Northeast, the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, and other regions. We should improve subsidies for corn and soybean producers and implement pilot programs for replacement cost insurance and planting income insurance for soybean producers. We should continue to carry out joint research on soybean variety breeding, accelerate the cultivation of new high-yield, high-oil, high-protein soybean and oilseed crop varieties, vigorously promote high-yield planting technology, strengthen the potential of varieties to increase the output of soybeans and oilseed crops, and promote the planting of genetically modified soybeans in suitable areas. We should improve the level of mechanization for planting oilseed crops, carry out research and development on key technologies and equipment for the production of oilseed crops such as rapeseed, camellia oil plants, and peanuts, and make up for the weaknesses in mechanization in terms of sowing, harvesting, and shelling. We should strengthen technological research on the integration of agricultural machinery and techniques, and improve the level of mechanization across the entire soybean and oilseed production chains. Second, we should encourage farmers to use uncultivated or underused land resources such as fields left uncultivated in winter and saline-alkali lands to plant oilseed crops. We should cultivate oilseed varieties with short production cycles, take natural resource conditions into account, identify the main oilseed varieties to plant in favorable areas, and expand the cropland for peanuts, sesame, and forestland-based woody grains and oilseeds such as camellia oil plants, idesia polycarpa, and yellow nutsedge in non-agricultural areas. Idesia polycarpa fruits and yellow nutsedge seeds have an oil content above 20%, making them important oilseed crops. During the 14^th to 16^th Five-Year Plan periods, we recommend planting yellow nutsedge on non-agricultural land in Xinjiang and Northeast China, and planting idesia polycarpa in the southern region, with an area of over 3×10⁷ mu each. Third, we should improve policy support such as income guarantees, improve the income guarantee mechanisms for farmers planting oilseed crops, give full play to the synergy between subsidy policies, and fully mobilize farmers’ enthusiasm for planting oilseed crops.

(iii)      Steadily Restore the Multi-Cropping System in the Southern Region, Properly Promote the Crop Rotation System in the Northern Region, and Facilitate Nationwide Grain Output Improvement in a Balanced Manner

We should properly restore the multi-cropping system in the southern region and make full use of fields left uncultivated in winter. In southern Jiangsu and Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, and northern Yunnan, we should develop the multi-cropping mechanisms featuring “rice‒oilseed” and “rice‒rice‒oilseed” crop rotation models, keeping grain production stable and improving oilseed output. We should promote the crop rotation system in the northern region in an in-depth manner, promote maize-soybean strip intercropping in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, Northwest, and Southwest regions, and carry out grain-soybean rotation in the Northeast, such as the pilot projects in Heilongjiang province featuring transitioning from irrigated to rainfed farming and from growing rice to growing soybeans in areas of excessive groundwater extraction and cold temperature relying on well-based irrigation. Specifically, in the two major grain-producing areas of Northeast China and the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, we should carry out crop rotation and alternation, and coordinate the relationship between soybeans and corn based on yearly schedules. For example, in the northern part of Northeast China, soybeans and corn are rotated every other year. In the central and southern parts of the Northeast, corn is planted for two or three years alternating with soybeans for one year. In the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, planting soybeans as a summer crop after the wheat harvest has become more popular, forming a rotation of summer soybeans and summer corn planting in alternate years with wheat crops planted in the winter, or a rotation featuring soybean planting for one year and corn for two years. In addition, we should carry out demonstration projects for soybean planting in saline-alkali land, expand the area of cultivated land using the rotation system, guide farmers in the Northeast region to rationally plan their planting schedule, and expand the demonstration area for the strip intercropping of soybeans and corn in suitable areas.

(v)     Improve Feed Grain Utilization Efficiency and Reduce Grain Loss and Waste

In terms of feed grain utilization, we should optimize the combination efficiency of grain production and animal husbandry, improve livestock raising and breeding efficiency, and increase the feed grain conversion rate. During the process of grain production, we should improve support for the research and development of low-loss grain harvesting machinery, equipment, and technology; strengthen the training and assessment of agricultural machinery operators and improve their skills and capabilities; accelerate the construction of high-quality farmland and related supporting facilities, improve storage conditions, and reduce losses during the harvest and storage; improve relevant standards and laws, and ensure that “there are laws to follow and they are strictly enforced” in all stages of the grain production chain; We should further deepen the reform for strategic grain reserve and auction mechanisms, and increase the speed of strategic stock rotation; And we must improve the level of comprehensive utilization of grain by-products. In terms of food consumption, we should promote dietary nutrition education, publish dietary guidelines suitable for different populations, guide residents to form scientific, low-carbon dietary habits, and gradually address issues such as the coexistence of undernutrition and food excess, as well as extravagance and waste when consuming food.