I. Introduction

With the rapid development of the fourth industrial revolution and the iteration of key technologies, space has become a new focus of international strategic competition. After taking office, U.S. President Trump shifted the focus of security strategy to competition between major powers and increased spending in the space sector, aiming to maintain the United States’ absolute advantage in space and seize the high ground in space competition among powers.¹ This will not only intensify international competition and games in the space sector, but will also impact global space security and bring new problems for international and national security governance in the broad sense.

In 2015, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) launched a high-speed space internet project called Starlink, which has become a key step in the implementation of the United States’ strategic planning for space in the new era. As a product of the new technological revolution, the U.S. Starlink project has many advanced technology advantages and a broad application market and commercial space. Its goal is to establish a global satellite internet communication system dominated by U.S. technology, and it will have significant impacts and effects on existing global 5G communication technology and future space-based internet systems. At present, the project has already carried out in-depth cooperation with the U.S. military and frequently launched satellites, aggressively seizing near-Earth orbit space spectrum resources. If the project is successfully implemented, not only will there be a problem of outer space resources being forcefully expropriated by U.S. technology, but it will also have a great impact on the low-orbit satellite internet production chain and other technology industry value chains. Based on these understandings, this paper systematically studies the basic content, specific development, and technological characteristics of the U.S. Starlink project, and attempts to conduct an in-depth analysis of its development prospects and possible impacts from the perspectives of market competition, technology competition, and international and national security.

II. Review of domestic and foreign research on the Starlink project

As a leader in cutting-edge space technology in recent years, the Starlink project has received attention and research from the foreign and domestic academic communities. As to the basic content of the Starlink project, Kong Chao et al. maintain that once the project is fully deployed as planned, the total number of satellites put in orbit for the project will be nearly six times the number of satellites currently in orbit and operated by all countries in the world, making it the largest-scale constellation project that humanity has been able to propose so far, and it will pose huge challenges for the future communications and internet industries.² Zhou Yuzhe, focusing more on the technical perspective, argues that Starlink’s full-coverage space-based communication network will be able to completely overcome the regional limitations of traditional land-based communications.³ Zhang Luona et al. believe that SpaceX’s integration of rocket launch and recovery, satellite manufacturing and operation, and ground station manufacturing and services can maximize the cost savings of the Starlink project, so the constellation has a certain market competitiveness and better market development prospects.⁴ From the perspective of future prospects, Xing Qiang argues that the Starlink project is essentially a constellation of satellites that can provide 5G-level high-speed internet services worldwide.⁵

Regarding Starlink’s characteristics, Wu Chao et al. observe that the Starlink constellation is characterized by seamless global coverage, convenient access, low latency, and large capacity. In addition, the Starlink satellites are independently produced by SpaceX, so low-cost mass production can be achieved.⁶ After a comparative study of technologies, Liu Shuaijun et al. maintain that, unlike the terrestrial internet, which provides services to users through fiber-optic home access, and the mobile internet, which provides services to users through the deployment of base stations, low-orbit constellations like Starlink provide communication services to users mainly through satellites. The deployment of terrestrial optical fiber, base stations, etc. is limited by terrain and cannot form effective full-network coverage. Low-orbit constellations, in contrast, have the advantage of “looking down from high above” and can provide internet services to the entire world.⁷ Zhao Yan et al. summarize the four main characteristics of the Starlink low-orbit satellite internet as: large scale; use of new technologies such as multiple satellites in a single rocket and rocket recovery; low-orbit satellite communications with low latency for use in special terrains; and huge potential commercial value of satellite internet.⁸ He Kang notes that, in addition to commercial applications, the Starlink project also has military potential and applications, and allows the connection of high-altitude weapons to a global satellite communications network. More connected data and intelligence will lead to a more flexible and more effective combat model.⁹

With regard to the development prospects and impact of the Starlink project, Wu Chao et al. believe that Starlink does not seek to compete with the traditional terrestrial internet for market share. Its target users and application scenarios tend to be niche markets, and it complements terrestrial telecommunications network services.¹⁰ Xiang Ligang points out that the idea of replacing optical fiber or 5G with Starlink is unrealistic, but this does not imply that the development model of low-orbit communication satellites represented by Starlink is without merit. Low-orbit satellites can be combined with terrestrial 5G networks to form a unified whole, serving as a supplement to 5G. The future 6G will integrate underground, terrestrial, water surface, and sky into a network system, forming comprehensive interconnectivity between sky and earth.¹¹ Shen Yongyan argues that the vision of all things interconnected via 5G will inevitably require the combined application of various technologies, and the wireless communication nature and diverse uses of satellite communications make it possible to achieve this vision.¹² Wang Yong believes that Starlink is a higher “ceiling” that SpaceX is creating for itself, and SpaceX itself can derive three benefits through this project: launch value, economic return on rocket recovery, and orbital frequency occupation.¹³

Regarding the challenges posed by the Starlink project, scholars have mainly analyzed and considered the competition for frequency and orbit resources, network information security challenges, and space debris. Zhou Yuzhe points out that the Starlink project’s intention to commandeer frequency and orbital resources is obvious, and it intends to maximize its potential benefits from “occupying frequency and orbits” in the space field. Since the International Telecommunication Union’s principle for obtaining orbits and spectrum is “first come, first served,” once Starlink has occupied a large amount of orbital and spectrum resources, and other countries need to avoid the frequency bands and orbital positions that have been applied for to avoid mutual interference, it will objectively compress the room for other countries to explore in space.¹⁴ Kong Chao et al. maintain that China currently does not have effective regulatory measures for foreign satellite internet systems, and the internet constellation represented by the Starlink project may pose potential security risks and hidden dangers, while rapid formation of space debris will also threaten spaceflight safety.¹⁵ Zhang Xue argue that the Starlink project’s intention is to seize orbital resources, and that it will increase the risk of satellite collisions, pose greater challenges for other countries entering outer space.¹⁶ Li Cuilan et al. point out that if all the Starlink satellites are launched and then fall to Earth uncontrolled after they are decommissioned or become inoperable, the result will be a large number of satellites entering near-Earth space in a short period of time. This will pose a threat to the safety of satellites in near-Earth space, and the impact on spacecraft that have been in orbit for a long time will be particularly great.¹⁷

In addition to the research of domestic scholars, foreign scholars have also devoted considerable attention and analysis to the Starlink project. In particular, Steven Kosiak of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) points out that SpaceX’s reuse of the Falcon 9 heavy-lift launch vehicle will greatly reduce the Starlink’s launching cost, making the project stand out, and it also has extremely broad development prospects.¹⁸ Jonathan C. McDowell has discussed the current number of satellites in low Earth orbit and pointed out that a constellation of about 12,000 internet satellites would dominate Earth’s lower orbit region under 600 km, posing a huge challenge to future astronomical observation and space activities.¹⁹ Christopher D. Johnson suggests that a space-based internet formed by Starlink would be more attractive than terrestrial fiber-optic cables, and that providing broader internet access in rural areas and developing countries is an attractive market. Therefore, the use of a group of small satellites to form a network in space would be commercially attractive and promising. Moreover, the Starlink constellation’s impact on astronomical observations would be immediate, and this issue has received significant attention from the astronomical community.²⁰

Viewed overall, most of the existing studies analyze the development and industrial impact of Starlink as a cutting-edge technology from a technical perspective. Few of them analyze the Starlink project and its impact on international and national security from the perspective of international strategy and security.

III. Content and characteristics of the Starlink project

Starlink is not a purely scientific exploration project without a commercial promotion plan. From the start, it has had the grand vision of building a new generation space internet industry. At the same time, Starlink technology integration itself has also had its own prominent characteristics and first-mover advantages.

(i) Basic information and development status of the Starlink project

The Starlink project is a low-orbit internet constellation project proposed by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk in 2015. The project had planned to launch 12,000 satellites in three layers at distances of 340, 550 and 1,150 kilometers from the earth between 2019 and 2027, and finally link all the satellites into a huge satellite constellation.²¹ The Starlink project claims that it will end the network blockages that exist in the world today, but its essence is a global network that is not subject to ground infrastructure limitations. It is a low-cost, high-bandwidth, low-orbit global internet satellite constellation system that covers the entire world, and has extremely high strategic value.

Unlike traditional large satellites, Starlink satellites are deployed in low-Earth orbit, which greatly reduces time lags (“latency”), and can achieve global coverage. At the same time, the large number of satellites and the inclination of about 50° mean that only a small zigzag path needs to be traveled to complete data transmission between satellites using the shortest possible straight-line distance. In fact, a “vacuum optical cable” that can be freely spliced and combined in space is established.

Starlink was originally planned to be completed in three phases. The first phase would deploy about 1,600 satellites in an orbit 550 km above the earth, and by the end of 2020, 800 of those satellites would be used to meet demand for high-speed space-based internet in the United States, Canada, and other parts of North America. The second phase would deploy about 2,800 Ku-band and Ka-band satellites in orbits of 550 km, 1,130 km, 1,275 km, and 1,325 km, to complete the global network; the third phase would deploy about 7,500 V-band satellites in an orbit 340 km above the earth (see Table 1). After the completion of the three-phase plan, the entire globe will be covered.²² Currently, the original plan for the Starlink project’s mega-constellation has been adjusted and orbital altitudes have been reduced. The target orbits are now 550 km, and 30,000 additional satellites have been added, bringing the total to 42,000 satellites.²³

Table 1    Starlink constellation construction plan

As of March 24, 2021, SpaceX had launched 25 batches of Starlink satellites, totaling 1,385 satellites, of which 1,122 were in orbit. For information on the launch dates and content of each launch, see Table 2.

Table 2    Starlink satellite launch statistics

SpaceX has publicly stated that the Starlink network will require 24 launches to achieve widespread coverage, and will be able to cover North America after 14 of those launches.²⁴ Current progress is generally in line with its original plan. Following the 14th successful launch of the Starlink project on October 24, 2020, SpaceX began to provide actual services to Starlink terminal users in November 2020 and launched a public beta program called “Better Than Nothing Beta.” During testing, the estimated speed of Starlink was 50-150 megabytes per second (Mbps), the estimated latency was 20-40 ms. The terminal cost was U.S. $499 (about RMB3,351), and the monthly usage fee was U.S. $99 (about RMB664). This public beta program launch meant that the Starlink project was able to begin serving the public, and became an important milestone in the development of the Starlink project. For the progress of the Starlink project, see Table 3.

Table 3    Timetable of Starlink project progress

The Starlink system took three years from proposal to test satellite launch, and 15 months from test satellite to a network with the first batch of satellites, with the high-speed networking journey beginning thereafter. Compared to other enterprises that have proposed low-orbit broadband constellations, Starlink can be called the latecomer that got there first. Looking at the changes in the construction plan for the entire network system, there are three obvious trends. First, the number of satellites in the entire system has been increasing progressively, from 4,408 satellites in the first phase (the original plan was 4,425) to 7,518 satellites in the second phase. The third phase, which is currently being applied for, already has as many as 30,000 satellites, and the increasing number of satellites also represents a gradual increase in system capacity. Second, higher and higher frequencies are used. The first phase uses the Ku/Ka band, the second phase uses the V band, and the third phase currently under application uses the E band, in an attempt to use future possible frequencies to position itself strategically against other countries and enterprises. Finally, the satellite orbits are getting lower and lower. The Phase I application was for orbits of 1,100-1,325 km, and in November 2018, orbits of 1,584 satellites were lowered to 550 km; in April 2020, the remaining 2,824 satellites were lowered to orbits of 540-570 km. The second phase again significantly lowered the orbital altitude to 340 km, with the aim of achieving lower transmission latency by continuously lowering the orbit.

(ii) Technical characteristics of the Starlink project

As the world’s largest constellation of low-orbit satellites, the Starlink project has many obvious advantages and characteristics, including an implicit, special strategic value chain.

First, the Starlink project’s launch cost is very low. The project’s launch vehicle is SpaceX’s self-developed Falcon 9, which has the world’s most advanced recovery technology, so the rocket can be reused. On August 18 and October 18, 2020, the Starlink-10 and Starlink-13 launches both achieved “one rocket, six launches, six recoveries.” The Starlink-21 launch on March 14, 2021 achieved “one rocket, nine launches, nine recoveries,” just one step away from Musk’s goal of “ten recoveries.” At the same time, SpaceX has been working tirelessly to recover fairings. Since November 11, 2019, SpaceX has made a total of 15 recoveries, recovering a total of 22 fairings, greatly reducing launch costs. Compared to the 1990s when a rocket launch cost tens of millions of dollars, the cost of manufacturing and launching each satellite in the Starlink project is less than U.S. $500,000. Even compared to other low-orbit constellation projects of its own era, the Starlink project is far ahead in terms of cost performance (see Table 4). In addition, SpaceX has been cooperating with other countries and companies through its mature business model of “rockets + satellite deployment + launch services.” The key injector of the Falcon rocket engine is from the U.S. Apollo program, the overall engine design is derived from TRW’s mature products, and the aluminum-lithium alloy and welding technologies used in the rockets are also widely used products. Such a high degree of vertical integration of mature technologies in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the production chain has greatly reduced the cost of rocket launches.

Table 4    Comparison of Iridium Next, One Web, and Starlink satellite parameters

Second, from the theoretical and technical perspectives, the Starlink project can achieve global coverage and fast communication. The modern mobile communication devices currently used rely on electromagnetic waves to transmit signals through mobile communication base stations. Since electromagnetic waves propagate in a straight line, but the earth is an elliptical sphere, as the distance grows, the curvature of the Earth will block the line of sight. The layout of communication base stations is therefore subject to distance constraints, and is limited by topography, so it is impossible to form effective network coverage in remote mountainous areas or at sea. People have solved this problem by building submarine cables and satellite internet. However, electromagnetic waves travel more slowly through submarine cables than in a vacuum. To increase speed, low-orbit satellite internet—the Starlink project—has risen to the occasion. A low-orbit constellation like Starlink has the advantage of “looking down from high above,” and can provide information and communication services globally and to all regions. At present, there are still enormous gaps in the global internet market. As of 2020, nearly half of the world’s population still could not access the internet; by 2025, about 40% of the population will still be unable to access the internet. In addition, weak or nonexistent signals in service scenarios such as aviation, oceans, wilderness, disasters, and wars also provide opportunities for satellite internet to shine.²⁵ From a technical implementation standpoint, the Starlink project offers fast network speed, greatly exceeding traditional fiber optics. According to Elon Musk, the leader of the Starlink project, Starlink provides broadband services of at least 1 Gbps (more than 30 times the current household broadband speed). From July to October 2020, SpaceX completed post-deployment internal testing in North America. The results show that the maximum download speed of the current Starlink is 203.74 Mbps, and the maximum upload speed is 42.58 Mbps. Although these still fall short of Musk’s predicted values, Starlink’s speed has already surpassed 4G, and in theory it will get faster as the number of satellites deployed increases.

Third, the Starlink project has great commercial value and broad commercial prospects. Even though Musk has repeatedly stated that the Starlink project will not replace traditional terrestrial telecommunication networks, the project’s market potential and ambitions should not be underestimated. Starlink’s high network speed, low latency, and global coverage will make it extremely competitive in specific business sectors. For example, in the maritime sector, the International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT), which has a monopoly on civilian maritime communications, can only provide a network speed with a latency of about 600 milliseconds. Once Starlink is commercialized, it will quickly change the global maritime communications landscape. In the global cruise industry, the famous Royal Caribbean International Cruise Line, for example, charges U.S. $10 or U.S. $30 for 60 minutes of internet access, but the high price offers high latency and slow network speeds. With 28.5 million people taking cruises every year, and each person traveling for an average of one week, the Starlink plan’s “cheap, high-speed, low-latency” service will capture the vast international cruise communications market. In addition, the Starlink project will have a huge impact on the global financial investment industry. Due to the limitations of current communication technologies and methods, the prices of commodities traded on the world’s major foreign exchange markets cannot change simultaneously, often resulting in delays of about 100 milliseconds. However, the speed of light in Starlink’s inter-satellite links is faster than that in optical fiber, and delays can be reduced by up to tens of milliseconds. This will be enormously attractive for high-frequency trading programs with trading volumes in the hundreds of millions per second. It is foreseeable that, with the implementation of the Starlink project and the reduction of latency, there will be more commercial application scenarios in the future, and these will bring along considerable commercial value.

Fourth, Starlink has the ability to create international market space and new technology industry value chains. In terms of international market expansion, applications submitted for implementing Starlink’s access services have increased from Canada in North America to Australia and New Zealand in Oceania, as well as the United Kingdom and France in Europe. The Starlink project has already been deployed in many countries around the world. In particular, SpaceX has obtained commercial operation licenses in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia, and market access applications have been submitted in other countries, including Germany, Spain, Austria, Ireland, Greece, Switzerland, Japan, South Africa, Chile, and Mexico.²⁶ Musk has also said on social media that Starlink services are expected to enter the Indian market in mid-2021.²⁷ In terms of expanding the industrial value chains of new technologies, on October 20, 2020, traditional information technology giant Microsoft announced that its Azure cloud service had formally entered into partnership with the Starlink constellation. This means that Starlink, with its global coverage, will strongly support Azure modular data centers, allowing them to be everywhere, and includes providing cloud computing services for remote areas, with customers including the military, emergency command centers, rescue agencies, and scientific research institutions, thus forming a super-service capability that will allow access to cloud computing from anywhere in the world in the future. Also, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley, the global aerospace industry could generate more than U.S. $1 trillion in revenue by 2040, compared to U.S. $350 billion today. In this sector, the most important short- and medium-term business opportunities are likely to come from satellite broadband internet access.²⁸ For example, by 2022, half of all commercial flights worldwide will provide internet access, and internet access will be available on all flights by 2035. This will create a new market of approximately U.S. $130 billion.²⁹ Inferring from these kinds of business scenarios, not only will SpaceX’s “multiple satellite, back and forth” rocket launch technology itself be shaped into a unique industrial value chain for the international commercial satellite market, but the accompanying expansion of the business scenario market, including new technology applications such as cloud computing, will also create new industrial value chains in the future.

Fifth, the Starlink project has a wide range of military applications and enormous strategic value. Musk has positioned Starlink as a commercial satellite internet project, but its military application prospects are very broad as well. In August 2017, when SpaceX submitted a trademark registration application to the U.S. Patent Office, it expanded the scope of Starlink applications to include satellite communications and transmission, satellite imaging, remote sensing, and other services. If these applications are used in the military, they will further enhance the U.S. military’s combat capabilities, including: communication capabilities and informatization levels; global, all-weather, seamless reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities; space target situational awareness and space-based defense and strike capabilities; non-linear operations; over-the-horizon long-range precision strikes; special operations with unmanned equipment, and other tactical capabilities.³⁰ In addition, the military extension of satellite internet can solve the problem of seamless interconnection between the U.S. territory and overseas military bases, as well as the spectrum occupation and vacating problems in 5G network construction that have long plagued the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD).

From the standpoint of cooperation between Starlink and the U.S. military, in March 2019, the U.S. Air Force’s Strategic Development Planning and Experimentation Office signed a U.S. $28 million contract with SpaceX requiring the company to conduct military service demonstration and verification using the Starlink constellation within three years. In November 2019, the U.S. Air Force awarded SpaceX a contract called the Defense Experimentation Using Commercial Space Internet (DEUCSI), which aims to explore the use of commercial low-orbit communication satellite constellations to build a globally resilient, highly available, high-bandwidth, low-latency communication infrastructure for the U.S. Air Force in space to support various Air Force combat operations.³¹ The U.S. military hopes that military users of emerging communication services can sign contracts with commercial satellite companies to conduct testing before a satellite constellation is launched, rather than waiting until the constellation has full network communication capabilities to initiate cooperation.³² In May 2020, the U.S. Army signed a three-year Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with SpaceX to test the feasibility of connecting the broadband network provided by Starlink’s low-orbit internet constellation to the military communication network, so as to help the Army decide whether to purchase Starlink constellation services. Through this cooperation, the U.S. Army will explore issues such as the ground equipment required to use the Starlink broadband network, the amount of system integration work, the cost of equipping soldiers with new satellite communication terminals, whether information transmission is safe and reliable, and so on. The expected goal of the project is to integrate the Starlink broadband network into the existing military systems of the U.S. military.³³

IV. The U.S. space strategy behind the Starlink project and its impact on international security

Since its launch, the Starlink project has gradually taken shape as a prototype of space-based internet. The Starlink constellation’s high speed, low latency, and global all-region coverage make it extremely competitive in specific commercial sectors. At the same time, the project’s implementation process and its close cooperation with the U.S. government and military also show that the rapid rise of Starlink is due to the United States’ mature space military-civil fusion system. It reflects the transformation of U.S. space strategy, and will pose huge challenges for international security in the future.

(i) The emergence of Starlink: A mature U.S. space military-civil fusion system

In the 1980s, the United States launched a multi-domain arms race with the Soviet Union through the “Star Wars” program. This increased the economic burden on the Soviet Union, hastening its collapse. Unlike the Soviet Union, which concentrated national resources on developing the aerospace military industry, the United States’ “arms race” strategy was carried out through two-way cooperation between government and enterprises, and it gradually formed the features of the “military-civil fusion” and “military-to-civilian conversion” model. The development of the U.S. space industry has always been led by NASA and participated in by enterprises. In this model, NASA mainly cooperated with a number of giant private enterprises such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin. However, the high prices charged by large U.S. companies and the persistently high launch costs made U.S. space launches subject to much criticism. Two catastrophic space shuttle accidents that occurred during the same period also caused severe challenges for U.S. space industry development in terms of both national policy and public opinion.³⁴ In order to respond to these challenges, NASA attempted to steer more companies toward investing in the space sector, and to develop the space industry through a new public-private partnership model. That is, by changing the rules of public-private partnerships, a new public-private partnership model was created in order to guide companies to invest and participate in the completion of NASA projects and important tasks, at the same time enhancing the competitiveness of the United States in the space sector.³⁵ Under the new model, traditional vested interests such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin have regained their competitiveness, while a number of small private space companies, led by SpaceX, have also been able to enter the space sector.

SpaceX was founded in 2002. Musk’s initial goal was to form a cheap but effective commercial spaceflight model through low-cost transportation to space. However, since aerospace industry technology had long been monopolized by the U.S. military and large enterprises, SpaceX’s path to growth was not easy. In the first few years after its establishment, SpaceX competed fiercely with other small private aerospace companies in the same field. It eventually stood out by relying on its ability to raise funds and actively responding to NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. In December 2008, SpaceX won 12 rocket launch project contracts from NASA for amounts ranging from U.S. $20,000 to U.S. $1 billion.³⁶ This marked the beginning of its long-term partnership with NASA and expanded its scale. In June 2010 and August 2012, SpaceX received a total of U.S. $4.93 billion in contracts from NASA to collaborate on the development and design of the Dragon spacecraft to send astronauts into space.

Since receiving NASA’s financial and technical support, there has been a constant upgrading of the products SpaceX has introduced. In the short space of a few years, the Falcon 9 rocket has been launched over 20 times, carrying more than 20 tons of payload into low-Earth orbit, and the controlled recovery and soft landing of the first stage of the rocket and its reuse has been achieved, greatly reducing launch costs. SpaceX has also undertaken the development and launch of the Dragon spacecraft. On May 30, 2020, a Falcon 9 rocket successfully sent the SpaceX Dragon capsule into orbit, and two U.S. astronauts arrived smoothly at the International Space Station. This was the first time since 2011 that the United States had used a domestically produced rocket and spacecraft to send astronauts to the space station from its own soil. At the same time, it also fulfilled a goal that SpaceX had promised NASA in 2012, and marked the commercialization of manned space transportation in the United States.

After having received support from the U.S. government and military, SpaceX began to actively “pay it back” by participating in cooperative R&D in many areas of the U.S. military. On March 14, 2017, SpaceX beat out several competitors to win a U.S. $96.5 million contract with the U.S. Air Force to launch GPS-III, the next generation of Global Positioning System satellites.³⁷ SpaceX is to provide launch vehicle production, mission integration, and rocket launching, as well as follow-up value assessment and original research work for GPS-III. In early 2018, SpaceX also began testing for the U.S. Air Force’s Global Lightning project using the Starlink system’s first two test satellites to transmit radio waves to a terminal on board a flying C-12 military transport aircraft. The signal transmission rate at that time reached 610 Mbps, which is 102 times the U.S. military’s current minimum transmission rate of 5 Mbps in theaters of operations, and enough to download a movie in one minute. It is reported that this project will continue, with more military aircraft models to be put into testing.³⁸ On October 5, 2020, the DOD’s Space Development Agency (SDA) and SpaceX signed a U.S. $149 million contract that includes construction of four ballistic missile and hypersonic missile detection and tracking satellites. This was the first time SpaceX officially received a satellite production contract from the U.S. military.³⁹

Unlike the “military-to-civilian conversion” of the U.S. aerospace industry at the end of the 20th century, SpaceX’s own development model has become a model for U.S. “civilian-to-military conversion.” This is a new model of U.S. “military-civil fusion” that has developed out of technological progress. By means of U.S. military missions, this model uses the innovation capabilities of small and medium-sized U.S. technology enterprises to actively implement technology sharing and R&D cooperation, contracts, and technology guidance, and finally obtains high-quality, low-cost products through the successful development of private enterprises. This new hybrid “military-civil fusion” system is the fundamental reason for the healthy and sustainable development of the U.S. aerospace industry today. SpaceX’s achievement of such huge breakthroughs in a short time is inextricably linked to the creation of a new model of military-civil fusion in the U.S. aerospace industry.

(ii) Behind Starlink: transformation of the United States’ space security strategy

Since the end of the Cold War, space security has been a key concern of the U.S. government.⁴⁰ Since Trump took office, the United States has taken frequent action in the space sector, attempting to establish space superiority to serve its great power competition strategy. On June 30, 2017, Trump signed an executive order announcing the reactivation of the National Space Council. Subsequently, the DOD released the National Defense Strategy report, which clearly defined space as a “warfighting domain.”⁴¹ In October 2017, experts from the Defense Strategy and Assessment Program of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) recommended that the Trump administration should formulate a new space strategy to address comprehensive issues in space law, space science and exploration, space commerce, and space security, and maintain the United States’ global space leadership and space hegemony.⁴² On March 23, 2018, the United States released a new version of the National Space Strategy, which proposed the strategic goal of maintaining the United States’ “strength and competitiveness in the space environment.”⁴³ In February 2019, the DOD released the Challenges to Security in Space report, which details China and Russia’s anti-satellite weapons, including electronic warfare systems, directed energy weapons, and kinetic anti-satellite missiles. It maintains that China and Russia are very likely to pursue the use of laser weapons to destroy, weaken, or damage the satellites (and their sensors) of the United States and its allies, and that they “challenge the U.S. position in space” and pose a “threat to freedom of action in space” for the United States and its allies.⁴⁴ On August 29, 2019, Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Space Command, and on December 20, the National Defense Authorization Act of 2020 came into effect, marking the official establishment of the U.S. Space Force. On June 17, 2020, the DOD released a new version of the Defense Space Strategy. This was the first outline of U.S. space strategy announced by the DOD since the establishment of the SDA, the independent Space Command, and the Space Force. The strategic outline calls for the United States to comprehensively push forward space militarization, establish comprehensive space superiority, and ensure the leadership position of the United States in space.⁴⁵ On August 10, 2020, the U.S. Space Command released the U.S. Space Force’s doctrinal publication, Space Power, further clarifying that the mission of the Space Force is to ensure freedom of action in space, shape a safe space environment, and protect the economic security and prosperity of the United States.⁴⁶ On December 9, 2020, the U.S. government released the National Space Policy, which once again clearly lays out the principles that space operations should follow, as well as U.S. goals in terms of civil space exploration, commercial growth, and national security.⁴⁷

At present, the U.S. space security strategy has the following characteristics: (1) The strategic positioning of space has changed from a strategic support domain to a unique domain of operations; (2) the establishment of a resilient space architecture is an attempt to ensure the strategic superiority of the U.S. military in space; and (3), the redundancy and resilience of space systems are to be enhanced, and military capabilities in space strengthened, through the active development of commercial aerospace.

The Starlink project’s emergence and promotion completely met the requirements of U.S. space security strategy transformation during the Trump administration. First, the Starlink project had already cooperated with the U.S. Air Force, Army, and Space Force on many occasions since its implementation, and its wide-ranging military applications will significantly enhance the U.S. military’s space combat capabilities. Second, as a representative low-orbit satellite constellation, the Starlink project fully complies with the requirements of the DOD’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) for future satellite systems, and will thus greatly increase the United States’ structure for resilience in space.⁴⁸ Third, the Starlink constellation was designed, and is being built, by a commercial aerospace company, SpaceX. This allows the U.S. military to take full advantage of commercialized innovative technologies and new commercial operating models, thereby accelerating the application of space technology in military fields.

In terms of pace of advancement, the Starlink project also has a certain degree of congruity with the transformation of U.S. space security strategy. In August 2017, DARPA first proposed the concept of “Mosaic Warfare,” which aims to use mosaic forces as the main force for confrontation, and focus the center of gravity of operations on the “Orient-Decide” link of the “Observe-Orient-Decide-Act” (OODA) loop. At the same time, SpaceX officially unified two major internet constellation plans into Starlink and applied for trademark registration. Once the 42,000 satellites in the Starlink project are deployed, it will be like a “mosaic” that surrounds the earth in low orbit. Different satellites within the overall constellation carry different payloads for communication, reconnaissance, navigation, and meteorology, as well as attack and defense, and can quickly shape their perception of the situation and deploy flexibly according to mission requirements. Their “mosaic effect” in future wars, including their role in confusing opponents and taking the initiative, will be prominent.⁴⁹

In reality, the United States’ space security strategy transformation is being implemented through the Starlink project to a certain extent. On March 12, 2019, the DOD established the Space Development Agency (SDA); and on July 1, the SDA released the requirements for its first project, proposing the concept of a “next generation space architecture,” which aims to rapidly develop a multi-functional small satellite constellation utilizing private company resources and industry best practices. In terms of the military needs of the U.S. military’s new generation of space system construction, this project clearly points in the direction of missile defense and space confrontation, marking a huge shift in the U.S. military’s thinking and approach to the development of space equipment systems.⁵⁰ Barely one year later, in October 2020, the SDA announced that it would award SpaceX a U.S. $149 million contract and L3Harris a U.S. $194 million contract to build four military satellites for the “Tracking Layer Tranche 0” of the United States’ “Next Generation Space System,” which will be used to provide early warning and tracking information for defense against ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles.⁵¹

Therefore, in the Starlink project’s development, there has been close, comprehensive interaction with the U.S. military in multiple fields. At the strategic level, Starlink has become a key step, an important method, and a vehicle for the U.S. to promote the transformation of its space security strategy. It is not just a simple aerospace commercial project, but also has significant strategic and military implications.

(iii) Starlink raises new international security issues

Starlink is the joint product of the technological development of the fourth industrial revolution and the transformation of U.S. space security strategy for the new era, and its application and promotion of will pose huge challenges for the maintenance of international space security in the future.

First, the Starlink project will pose new threats to the national defense and security of other countries. As a low-orbit satellite internet communication system, Starlink can provide global, dead zone-free, informatized military reconnaissance and communication services to support the operational plans of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. With the space battlefield becoming an increasingly important arena of competition between major powers, core satellite internet technology can be used to threaten the strategic security of other countries and gain the upper hand in future wars. On January 3, 2020, the United States used a UAV to take out Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. On November 27 of the same year, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of Iran’s nuclear program and its chief nuclear scientist, was assassinated near Tehran. These actions were made possible by the global high-speed communication and space-air coordination capabilities achieved via satellite networks. If the Starlink project is applied on a large scale in the military field in the future, it will further enhance the U.S. military’s satellite communication and unmanned combat capabilities. At the same time, Starlink’s low-orbit satellites are closer to the ground, which will greatly increase the resolution of the optical sensors carried by the satellites, allowing them to take photos with greater precision. Those 40,000-plus satellites will be equivalent to more than 40,000 high-definition cameras perpetually suspended in the sky, which poses a huge threat to the national defense and security of other countries. What is more, Starlink satellite communications may also change how warfare is waged, to a certain extent. Each satellite can transmit the high-definition pictures and videos it takes over a war zone to front-line commanders through Starlink. At the same time, the huge amount of data collected by UAVs over the battlefield will no longer need to be compressed locally, but will be transmitted in raw form directly to a command center on the other side of the earth via Starlink, and then analyzed by supercomputers to extract useful data and analyze the battlefield situation more precisely, enabling commanders in the war zone to make decisions more quickly and accurately. Starlink will further expand the military superiority of the United States, and in the future may pose new threats to the national defense and security of other countries, especially major powers.

Second, Starlink will pose new challenges to the information sovereignty and information regulation of other countries. For competition between powers, aerospace resource integration has always been a “battlefield of the future.”⁵² Starlink has expanded the connotations of national information and network security, making the regulation of cyberspace increasingly complex and much more difficult. Starlink has global coverage, low latency, and high-bandwidth communication capabilities. Such a huge network of low-orbit satellites will be a powerful tool for competing for space information dominance. Once Starlink is deployed globally, it will all but control the power to set the rules for global data exchange. In the rapidly developing information age, securing the power to control data is equivalent to dominating the control of information. At the same time, as a U.S.-designed and developed satellite internet communication project, Starlink aims to provide internet access services worldwide, which will inevitably involve many transnational information and data regulation issues, and thereby create new regulatory gaps. According to the “Wireless Regulations” proposed by the International Telecommunication Union, with the exception of satellite broadcasting services, no country can require another country to exclude its territory from coverage by a foreign satellite network. Therefore, any foreign satellite that covers a country is eligible to provide satellite internet services in the country, and its satellite communication links are not subject to regulation by the country being covered.⁵³ Therefore, Starlink, as a U.S. satellite internet service, will pose a huge challenge to the information sovereignty and information regulation of other countries.

Third, the huge number of launches planned by the Starlink project will intensify competition for spectrum and space orbit resources. Today, global satellite orbits can be divided into high, medium, and low orbits. The main activity range of low-orbit communication satellites is in space at distances of 300-1,200 km above the Earth’s surface. The orbital range of the Starlink project is 340-1,325 km. If it is fully deployed, it will fill the entire low-orbit channel with over 40,000 satellites. This would be greatly detrimental to the resource utilization efficiency of near-Earth orbits. The International Telecommunication Union adopts the “first come, first served” principle for the orbital frequency spectrum, and in principle, since signal interference occurs between similar frequencies, different satellite communication systems cannot use the same frequency. Therefore, as long as the filing for a space orbit has been made successfully, even if the Starlink satellites have not yet been launched, others will not have the right to use the orbit as well, as projects with later filings cannot conflict with previously filed projects. In this way, the low-orbit region will be almost completely covered by Starlink satellites, which means that low-orbit resources will become increasingly scarce. It will become increasingly difficult for similar projects to avoid Starlink orbits, and they will have to incur additional costs. It can be seen that one of the purposes of the Starlink project is to quickly occupy low orbits through the rapid deployment of a large number of satellites, suppressing other countries’ space industry development, and using technological superiority to deny other countries the right to develop the peaceful use of space.

Fourth, the huge number of satellites in the Starlink project will pose a huge challenge to the peaceful use of space. The Starlink project plans to launch 42,000 satellites. This means that there will be 42,000 more units operating in an already crowded part of space, inevitably creating a large amount of space junk. Moreover, the lifespan of Starlink project satellites is designed to be five to seven years. After completing their mission, avoiding the uncontrollable “disconnection” of failed satellites and ensuring their safe and reliable recovery is also a major problem that SpaceX will need to face in the future. By occupying space in space, the Starlink project risks harming international aerospace safety, and even threatening the safety of human survival on the ground. In this regard, Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics scientist Jonathan McDowell, after analyzing data provided by SpaceX and the U.S. government, found that about 3% of the more than 800 Starlink satellites that have been launched have already failed. If the current failure rate does not decrease, Starlink will generate as many as 1,200 dead satellites in the future, so the amount of space debris will be enormous. This will increase the probability of collisions, which in turn will lead to the generation of more debris, directly threatening the safety of spacecraft and adversely affecting human exploration and utilization of space.⁵⁴ Even more worrying is that the large number of scrapped satellites may cause the Kessler syndrome in space.⁵⁵ Therefore, once the Starlink project completes its deployments, it will fill the entire low-orbit region with space junk, threatening the survival of other satellites and even adversely affecting mankind’s plans to launch higher-orbit satellites into space. The most serious consequence is that it would directly affect the ability of countries around the world to explore space in the future, completely “locking” mankind on Earth for centuries.

Fifth, the Starlink project will have a huge impact on the world’s astronomical exploration and observation. Since most of the satellites in the Starlink constellation are being deployed in low-Earth orbit at an altitude of 340 km, and the moon, the closest object to Earth, is at a distance of 363,300–405,493 km, the dense low-orbit Starlink satellites will inevitably become an obstacle to space observation by astronomers and enthusiasts. As early as May 2019, when the first batch of 60 Starlink project satellites were launched, it triggered a global discussion on business ethics. Many astronomers and astronomical observers criticized SpaceX’s Starlink project for unilaterally changing the appearance of the sky, and possibly causing light pollution and space junk in the future. According to the latest data from the United Nations satellite registration website, there are currently about 2,000 artificial satellites in orbit. If the 42,000 satellites of the Starlink project are successfully launched, there will be about a 20-fold increase. Such a large number of satellites will greatly affect exploration and research conducted by the astronomical community, and the secondary hazards this will bring about for natural disaster prevention and meteorological observation will gradually increase.

V. The impact of the Starlink Project on China’s National Security

When General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the first meeting of the National Security Commission of the CCP on April 15, 2014, he proposed the need to accurately grasp the new characteristics and trends of the changing national security situation, adhere to the overall national security outlook, and embark on a path of national security with Chinese characteristics. General Secretary Xi Jinping first proposed the overall national security outlook at that meeting, and systematically proposed “11 types of security” for the first time.⁵⁶ Since then, by refining and deepening the security oulook, a national security system has been formed that involves multiple fields, including politics, national territory, the military, the economy, culture, society, science and technology, networks, ecology, resources, the nuclear field, overseas interests, space, the deep oceans, the poles, and biology. Because the Starlink project has advanced technology featuring space-air integration and interconnectivity, and at the same time superimposes the military strategic intentions of the United States, it will pose huge “compound and cross-cutting” economic, technological, network, and military security challenges for China.

(i) The Starlink project poses serious challenges to China’s satellite internet industry development

In April 2020, satellite internet was included in China’s “new infrastructure” for the first time, officially becoming a national key target of investment and development in the future. At the same time, China’s self-developed “Hongyun” and “Hongyan” constellations are also being actively deployed, with the aim of building a “Skynet constellation” that belongs to China. However, compared with the United States’ mature Starlink constellation, which is about to provide global satellite broadband communication services, China’s satellite internet industry development still lags behind. In September 2019, Morgan Stanley stated in a research report that the estimated market value of Starlink was U.S. $120 billion.⁵⁷ In June 2020, the company released a research report saying that the total output value of the global space industry would exceed U.S. $1 trillion by 2040.⁵⁸ Chinese research institutions also estimate that the global satellite internet market alone will exceed U.S. $45 billion by 2030.⁵⁹

Morgan Stanley also made a rough forecast of Starlink’s revenue, maintaining that by 2030, Starlink’s market share will reach 33.3%, and its revenue will reach U.S. $15.142 billion. Starlink will thus have a considerable share of the future satellite internet market. In addition, relying on its first-mover advantage, Starlink will be deeply integrated with other fields such the Internet of Vehicles, the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud data, and smart city construction. It will comprehensively drive the simultaneous development of upstream and downstream industry production chains, including satellite manufacturing, satellite launching, supporting application, and services, leveraging new economic growth drivers to form a huge Starlink production chain and technology ecosystem. If by that time traditional space powers such as China are not able to make comprehensive breakthroughs in satellite manufacturing scale, launch and recovery costs, and improvement of the supporting production chains, especially in terms of user scale expansion, then due to technology ecosystem constraints unique to internet technology, it will pose a huge challenge to the development of other global satellite internet industry systems, including China’s. This scenario has been fully verified by the two major ecosystems of Apple iOS and Google Android, which have suppressed other technology ecosystems, and it has also been the focus of attention on the part of researchers.⁶⁰

(ii) The Starlink project will impact China’s 5G technology security and industrial value chain

In recent years, with the gradual promotion and popularization of fifth generation communication technology (5G), technical comparisons between Starlink and 5G have increased, and a host of views such as “Starlink will replace 5G” and “Starlink will complement 5G” have emerged.⁶¹ To objectively view the relationship between the Starlink project and 5G, a comparative analysis from more levels is required. Looking at application scenarios, 5G is mainly aimed at high-bandwidth, low-latency application scenarios and industries with higher precision requirements, such as autonomous driving and the industrial internet, making them more intelligentized. From the start, the Starlink project has been aimed at users in regions and scenarios that are still not covered by terrestrial internet communications, such as sparsely populated areas, aircraft, ocean-going vessels, scientific exploration, etc. These account for about 3% of the world’s total population.

In terms of scope of coverage, 5G is like traditional terrestrial internet communication technology in that it requires the construction of ground base stations for information transmission. However, due to factors such as topography and population distribution, in many regions of the world, building 5G base stations is impossible or unsuitable. At the same time, although 5G emphasizes information interaction and the connection of all things, the connected objects are only concentrated in a limited space range up to 10 kilometers above the ground. 5G coverage is therefore very limited. As a low-orbit satellite internet communication technology, Starlink can achieve global, all-weather coverage by “networking” tens of thousands of satellites launched into near-Earth orbit. In contrast with terrestrial internet communication, Starlink can provide information communication services to all areas of the Earth, offering global, all-region internet access capabilities.

In terms of bandwidth, the theoretical bandwidth of 5G is between 1 Gbps and 2 Gbps, but in actual applications it gradually slows down as the number of base station users increases. The current actual bandwidth of 5G is 200 Mbps-500 Mbps, and it is expected to reach 1Gbps in the future with the further development of broadband technology. The theoretical bandwidth of the Starlink project is 1 Gbps. Since Starlink began internal testing in July 2020, it has reached a maximum bandwidth of 203.74 Mbps, and a maximum upload rate of 42.58 Mbps. Considering that this is merely the bandwidth achieved after launching 1,000-plus satellites, it is believed that bandwidth will improve greatly after the Starlink project achieves global coverage.

In terms of latency, 5G test latency can reach as low as 1 millisecond, and is about ten times better than 4G technology. In the case of IoT, one of the three main 5G application scenarios, the massive number of connections can help operators penetrate into the vertical industries of the IoT, and the low latency and high reliability of the network can help 5G operators achieve business expansion in the industrial internet. Starlink’s latency is similar to that of 4G. The lowest latency since the start of internal testing in July 2020 has been 18 milliseconds, while the average latency has been 25-35 milliseconds.

Overall, 5G technology has obvious advantages in terms of application scenarios and latency. It has a broad market and a wide range of future application scenarios, and is suitable for deployment in areas with complete cellular network coverage and high population density. In contrast, Starlink’s advantages are mainly its wide coverage and ability to achieve global internet communication without dead zones. Its deployment is suitable for areas with underdeveloped networks, mountainous areas, islands, and for emergency communications. More importantly, the military value stemming from the security of Starlink itself is unmatched by current terrestrial transmission network systems. If Starlink can solve the “post-Shannon decoding” (后香农解码) problem, its development prospects will be even more immeasurable.

Starlink and 5G have the potential to enhance each other and develop together. If Starlink and terrestrial 5G networks are integrated, made complementary, and converge, not only could 5G achieve global coverage, but Starlink’s transmission rate and user experience could also be improved through the hybrid application of 5G networks, thereby forming a high-speed, full-coverage, space-ground-integrated information network. International standards organizations, including the International Telecommunication Union, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), the European Commission-supported SaT5G consortium, and the C-band Alliance (CBA), have begun to study satellite internet-5G network integration issues, such as integration scenarios, core technologies, and network switching.⁶²

However, the integration of 5G and Starlink technology is only theoretically feasible, and from the perspective of real-world technology and market system competition, once Starlink’s transmission latency falls to or approaches the latency of 5G, its huge advantages will become apparent. If Starlink can close the latency gap, it will be able to provide low-latency satellite network infrastructure connectivity services for autonomous vehicles, UAVs, unmanned ships, etc. Communication links could then be achieved in places where ordinary signals are not available, such as mountain roads, expressways, national highways, and rural roads not covered by 5G. At the same time, it can also enhance vehicle navigation capabilities and provide more accurate and reliable location services for airborne and vehicle-mounted positioning terminals. Therefore, in addition to the foreseeable technological integration, the competitive factors involved in 5G and Starlink’s two technological systems and the market space cannot be ignored. Currently, the United States continues to stifle China’s Huawei, suppressing China’s technological superiority in the 5G field and inhibiting the overseas market extension of China’s 5G. Its obvious intention is to make “space internet” development a strategic option for the United States to overtake at the turn and enter the 6G era first. Once the United States has elevated the Starlink project to the status of a national competitive strategy (a status it is likely to have already), then from a higher-level national strategic competition perspective, as Starlink project services are gradually rolled out globally (with Starlink arriving in more and more countries in the near future), it is highly likely that China’s 5G overseas market, represented by Huawei, will be gradually weakened or even completely eliminated. In the future, two parallel independent markets and competing industrial value chains will then be formed, with China using 5G and other countries using Starlink. At such time, the global influence of Chinese technology may be further reduced. The worst outcome of this “technology ecosystem” containment strategy would be for Starlink to make a technological breakthrough on latency at the same time as it expands its global market share and application space, while China’s 5G network and technology perhaps become a “technology island” due to global market space suppression. This would have a major impact on China and the global 5G industry value chain.

(iii) Starlink will pose new threats to China’s network, data, and military security

Once Starlink has global communication capabilities, it will become a powerful tool for competing for information dominance. Such a global communication constellation will control information in many fields such as aviation, navigation, and finance, and will have almost sweeping power to set the rules for global data exchange. If Starlink makes use of ground-mobile smart vehicles and personal hand-held smart terminals to engage in back-end big data utilization and analysis, the network security and data security threats would be enhanced through “intelligent means.” In March 2021, Musk announced the imminent launch of a concept phone called “Tesla π,” which is to have Starlink connectivity and mind-phone connection functions, as well as the Marscoin mining system, a built in solar panel charging device, ultrasonic fingerprint sensor, high-speed photography, and binding control of Tesla cars. From a technical perspective, it can be foreseen that once the “Tesla π” smartphone is connected to the low-orbit Starlink and ground-based Tesla smart cars to form multi-medium connectivity, assisted by back-end big data analysis and application, the space-ground integration of high-speed information and data transmission will be technically completed. Cyber and data security risks of in all countries would then increase exponentially.

Once applied to the military area, Starlink will be able to greatly expand real-time battlefield perception, information interaction, and command and control capabilities, and completely transform the ground information-based combat mode into an “air-space integrated” combat mode. The lowest-level Starlink satellites are distributed in an orbit 340 kilometers above the earth, and their high-speed transmission and low-latency characteristics can promote rapid connection across all branches of the U.S. military, in all directions, and across all regions. Combined with ground transmission stations in the United States, Starlink satellites can form a space-ground integrated monitoring system, which will greatly enhance the U.S. military’s ability to dynamically perceive global and regional battlefields, and will especially enhance the integrated and coordinated combat capabilities of various weapons systems. At the same time, because low-orbit satellites are not constrained by national borders and have a wide reconnaissance range, they can provide intelligence information such as enemy deployments, battlefield terrain, and weapons and equipment. After communication satellites are combined with reconnaissance information transmitted in real time, operational links such as target detection, command decision-making, and target striking will be joined into a real-time operational chain.⁶³ In addition, the commercial positioning and commercial operation of the Starlink project make it difficult for China to effectively defend and retaliate against its military applications legally.

VI. Conclusion

Since its proposal in 2015 and its first launch in 2019, U.S.-based SpaceX’s Starlink project has made 15 successful launches to deploy 1,122 satellites into predetermined orbits, making it the world’s largest satellite internet communication constellation. As of the end of October 2020, Starlink had completed full coverage of North America and sent testing invitations and package price quotes to users. At the same time, Starlink is also actively exploring the global market in the hopes of making higher commercial returns. At present, while the international communications industry is more concerned about Starlink’s commercial value and market competition, and tech enthusiasts are keen to discuss the “Iron Man” myth in fields of technology shaped by “space-air technology interconnection,” the complex national and international security issues inherent in the Starlink project itself have not received enough attention.

The Starlink project has the advantages and characteristics of low launch costs, global coverage, fast network speeds, and broad commercial prospects. Between Starlink and advanced 5G technologies, a relationship of mutual substitution and potential competition exists. If the Starlink project further accelerates its deployment and can make a breakthrough in new decoding technology to achieve low latency comparable to 5G technology, it will be sufficiently competitive in commercial markets to directly threaten the application and extension of existing global 5G network technology. At that time, the United States may use a “technology + market” alliance to promote Starlink, and use “national security” and “values” as excuses to exclude 5G technology from China from the global next generation communication network market.⁶⁴ In that case, China’s 5G technology, in which heavy R&D investment has been made, including 5G patents already owned in other countries, would fail to achieve global “market spillover,” and the probability of its becoming a “technology island” would also greatly increase, which would in turn cause a large amount of sunk global investment costs and damage to the industrial value chain, and create new and complex economic security issues.

From a broader perspective of international and national security, the Starlink project is to some extent a product of, and vehicle for, the transformation of U.S. space security strategy. It has far-reaching strategic significance with regard to the United States’ seizure of space resources and orbital frequencies, improvement of the U.S. military’s communication technology and capabilities, and improvement of the United States’ “space-air-ground integrated” combat capabilities, including deployment of its “endless frontier” space strategy. At the same time, Starlink’s large-scale deployment will not only pose new challenges to space security, but its impact on astronomical observation activities and disaster prevention may also be international in nature. The new threats that Starlink’s commercial operations pose to the information security, data security, and military security of other countries are real and unavoidable. In particular, the diversity of intelligent terminals and the interconnection of “space-ground” information and global data exchange, brought about by the integration of new technologies, will create new “compound and cross-cutting” security issues and challenges for the national security and social and economic development of other countries. Therefore, when looking ahead technologically to a “future with a sea of technological stars” that Starlink is itself developing, it is even more necessary to pay attention to, and be vigilant about, the national security games and other deeper issues that lie behind it.