百年变局下的中拉“ 一带一路” 合作
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China–Latin America “Belt and Road” Cooperation in the Context of Changes Unseen in a Century

百年变局下的中拉“ 一带一路” 合作

Two scholars from Fudan University analyze the evolving role of the Belt and Road Initiative in cultivating China-Latin America relations. They characterize Latin America as a key partner that China can work with to promote a reorientation of its trading relationships away from the United States and other advanced Western economies, and they trace growing diplomatic, cultural, and economic exchange between the two sides. Nevertheless, the authors also soberly identify complex challenges that could undermine such developments, including U.S. suspicion of China’s engagement in the region and political and social instability in many Latin American countries. They recommend Beijing proactively seek to deepen cooperation with Latin America on supply chains, infrastructure construction, and people-to-people exchanges, and strategically address the development needs of Latin American countries in order to build influence in the region.

Key takeaways
  • Scholars at Fudan University review what they see as the upward trajectory of China-Latin America relations in recent years, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. They highlight growing high-level diplomatic exchanges and cooperation, as well as increased trade, infrastructure construction, and cultural exchange.
  • The authors also analyze the catalysts and headwinds of this relationship. On one hand, they argue Latin America seeks to diversify its diplomatic footprint beyond the Western hemisphere, and that China and Latin America have substantial room to deepen ties in trade and sustainable development. On the other hand, they caution the capricious nature of Latin American politics, regional economic malaise and vast cultural differences between the two sides could hold back progress.
  • They make various recommendations for Beijing to promote the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America, which include strengthening policy communications, fortifying trade and supply chain cooperation, expanding infrastructure construction, integrating the Chinese and Latin American financial systems, and promoting the spread of Chinese culture in the region.

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Latin America is one of the largest developing regions in the world and plays an important role in maintaining the security of global supply chains and production chains. It is also an important partner of China in promoting South-South cooperation and building a “community of common destiny for humanity.” Since the beginning of the 21st century, China–Latin America cooperation has continued to deepen and develop, and China–Latin America relations have become a new type of cooperative relationship based on equality, mutual benefit, innovation, openness, and benefit for the people. Especially starting from the time Latin American countries joined the “Belt and Road” cooperation initiative in 2017, China–Latin America relations have continued to develop rapidly. In recent years, the international political landscape has been constantly shifting, the strategic game between China and the United States has intensified, and the United States has increased its obstruction of China–Latin America cooperation. Since the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, the world has entered a period of turbulence and change, and Latin America was also hit by the pandemic. In the context of the current complex international situation, it is necessary for China and Latin America to take the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” as their guide in order to promote the optimization, upgrade, and innovative development of cooperation, while also making their due contributions to world peace and development. This article will review the achievements of China–Latin America cooperation made in recent years, analyze the necessity of continued advancement and the challenges faced, and propose relevant countermeasures and suggestions to allow the “Belt and Road” initiative to better promote the quality improvement and upgrade of China–Latin America relations.

拉美地区是世界上最大的发展中地区之一对于维护全球供应链产业链安全具有重要作用同时也是中国推进南南合作共建人类命运共同体的重要合作伙伴。  进入 21 世纪以来中拉合作不断深入发展中拉关系成为平等互利创新开放惠民的新型合作关系。  尤其自 2017 年拉美国家纷纷加入一带一路合作倡议以来中拉关系持续快速发展。  近年来国际政治格局不断调整中美博弈加剧美国加大对中拉合作的阻扰。  自新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球以来世界进入动荡变革期拉美地区亦受到疫情冲击。  在当前复杂的国际形势下中拉有必要以共建一带一路为引领带动合作优化升级创新发展同时也为世界和平与发展做出应有的贡献。  本文将梳理近年来中拉合作取得的成就分析继续推进的必要性以及面临的挑战并为一带一路促进中拉关系提质升级提出相关对策建议 

I. Progress of China–Latin America “Belt and Road” cooperation under changes unseen in a century 

百年变局下中拉一带一路合作的进展

China adheres to its basic national policy of opening up to the outside world and is committed to building a new pattern of all-around  opening up. In particular, the “Belt and Road” initiative has attracted many Latin American countries to join with its concept of open and inclusive cooperation. Against the backdrop of intensified strategic competition among major powers and the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, China and Latin American countries are strengthening collaboration and promoting cooperation, and have achieved a series of fruitful results. 

中国坚持以对外开放的基本国策为指引致力于构建全方位开放的新格局。  尤其一带一路倡议以开放包容的合作理念吸引了许多拉美国家加入。  在大国博弈加剧和乌克兰危机持续的背景下中国与拉美国家加强协作推进合作取得了一系列丰硕成果 

(1) High-level exchanges are frequent and policy communication is constantly strengthened. Latin American countries have different national conditions and diverse interests. Strengthening policy communication is an important guarantee of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road.” In recent years, guided by high-level exchanges, China and Latin America have actively built bilateral and multilateral exchange mechanisms and strengthened dialogue and consultation. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, President Xi Jinping communicated with leaders of Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, Peru, and Ecuador through video calls and letters. At the 6th Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) hosted by Mexico in September 2021, President Xi delivered a special video speech. After the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent, high-level officials from China and Latin American countries carried out intensive mutual visits. In early 2022, Argentine President Fernandez and Ecuadorian President Lasso visited China to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. In July 2022, Cai Wei, Director General of the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, paid working visits to Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. From April 12 to 15, 2023, Brazilian President Lula led a large delegation to visit China and had a cordial meeting with President Xi. 

高层交往密切政策沟通不断加强拉美各国国情有所差异利益诉求多元加强政策沟通是共建一带一路的重要保障。  近年来中国与拉美以高层交往为引领积极构建双多边交流机制加强对话和协商。  2020 年初新冠肺炎疫情暴发后习近平主席通过视频通话信函等方式与巴西墨西哥阿根廷委内瑞拉智利秘鲁厄瓜多尔等拉美国家领导人沟通。  2021 月墨西哥主办的第六届拉美暨加勒比国家共同体峰会上习主席特地做视频致辞疫情得到一定控制后中国与拉美国家高层开展了密集互访活动。  2022 年初阿根廷总统费尔南德斯和厄瓜多尔总统拉索赴华参加冬奥会开幕式。  2022 中国外交部拉美司司长蔡伟对阿根廷智利哥伦比亚古巴墨西哥秘鲁和乌拉圭等国进行工作访。2023 12 ~ 15 巴西总统卢拉率领庞大团队访问中国并与习主席亲切会晤

Under the leadership of high-level leaders, Latin American countries are increasingly enthusiastic about participating in the construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative. In early 2022, Nicaragua and Argentina signed memorandums of understanding on cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative with China in quick succession, bringing the number of Latin American countries that had joined the initiative to 21. Among these, Suriname, Cuba, and other countries have signed specific plans with China and identified key cooperation projects.

在高层引领下拉美国家参与一带一路建设的热情日益高涨。 2022 年初尼加拉瓜阿根廷先后与中国签署一带一路合作谅解备忘录使加入该倡议的拉美国家达到21 其中苏里南古巴等国已与中国签署了具体规划明确重点合作项目 

(2) Economic and trade cooperation continued to strengthen even against the global trend and its structure continued to improve. China has been Latin America’s second-largest trading partner for many years. Due to the impact of the pandemic, China–Latin America trade volume decreased slightly year-on-year in 2020, but Latin America’s exports to China bucked the trend and grew by 0.1%.1 In the same year, total exports of Mexico, Latin America’s second-largest economy, fell by 9.5%, but its exports to China reached U.S. $7.891 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%.2 China–Latin America trade exceeded U.S. $450 billion in 2021, and further grew to a historical high of U.S. $485.8 billion in 2022.3 In February 2023, China and Ecuador formally completed negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement, and China is currently actively promoting free trade agreement negotiations with Nicaragua. At the same time, the development of China–Latin America trade structure is accelerating in a balanced manner. Latin America’s exports to China have shifted from focusing on primary products to greater diversification, with exports of high-tech products such as biomedicine and electronic products, as well as agricultural products such as fruits, flowers, tobacco, alcohol, coffee, quinoa, and alpaca wool continuing to expand. 

经贸合作逆势走强结构持续优化中国持续多年成为拉美地区第二大贸易伙伴国。  受疫情冲击2020 年中拉贸易额同比略有下降但拉美对华出口逆势增长 %。同年拉美第二大经济体墨西哥出口总额下跌 %,但对华出口达 7891 亿美元同比增长 10%。2021 年中拉贸易突破 4500 亿美元2022 年则进一步增长至 4858 亿美元的历史高点2023 中国与厄瓜多尔正式完成双边自由贸易协定谈判目前正与尼加拉瓜积极推进自贸协定谈判。  同时中拉贸易结构加快均衡发展。  拉美对华出口从初级产品为主向多样化方向转变生物医药电子产品等高科技产品以及水果花卉烟酒咖啡藜麦羊驼绒等农产品出口不断扩大 

China’s investment in Latin America is trending upward. First, China’s investment in Latin America continues to increase. As of July 2021, China’s direct investment stock in Latin America exceeded U.S. $450 billion, accounting for 19% of China’s outbound foreign investment stock.4 From January to May 2021, China’s direct investment in Latin America was U.S. $10.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%.5 Second, China is investing in more places in Latin America. As of the end of 2020, there were more than 3,000 Chinese-funded enterprises in Latin America, mainly distributed in the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, and Venezuela, with a regional coverage rate of 65.3%.6 Third, investment fields are becoming increasingly diversified. Currently, China’s investment in Latin America is shifting from energy and mineral mining to the promotion of international production capacity cooperation in diversified production fields, and especially extending to fields such as clean energy, information and communications, the Internet, high-end manufacturing, and medical care. According to statistics from China’s Ministry of Commerce, as of the end of 2020, the top five industries by share of China’s investment stock in Latin America were information technology services, leasing and business services, wholesale and retail, manufacturing, and scientific research and technical services. Take Mexico as an example. Currently, 40% of Chinese investment in the country is concentrated in manufacturing, 11.3% in telecommunications, 10.3% in finance, and only 9.3% in mining.7 Fourth, Chinese investment has created new employment opportunities in Latin America. As of 2021, China has carried out a total of 192 infrastructure projects in Latin America and the Caribbean with a total investment of U.S. $98.4 billion, providing more than 673,000 local jobs.8 At the same time, in recent years, Didi has launched passenger and freight transportation services in Latin America, creating many local employment opportunities. According to statistics, Didi’s five investment projects in Latin America created 162,600 jobs between 2018 and 2020, accounting for 28.74% of the total jobs created by Chinese investment in Latin America.9 

中国对拉美投资呈现积极走向首先中国对拉美投资量不断增多截至 2021 中国在拉美直接投资存量已超过 4500 亿美元占中国对外投资存量的 19%2021 月中国对拉直接投资 103.8 亿美元同比增长 40%其次中国在拉投资目的国不断增多截至 2020 年底在拉中资企业已超过3000 主要分布在英属维尔京群岛开曼群岛巴西墨西哥秘鲁智利厄瓜多尔阿根廷委内瑞拉等地区覆盖率达到65%。第三投资领域日益多元化。  目前中国对拉投资正由能矿开采转向促进多元化生产的国际产能合作尤其向清洁能源信息通信互联网高端制造医疗等多领域延伸。  据中国商务部统计截至2020 年末占中国对拉投资存量前五位的行业是信息技术服务业租赁和商务服务业批发和零售业制造业科学研究和技术服务业以墨西哥为例目前该国40的中国投资集中在制造业电信业投资占 11%,金融业投资占 10%,而矿业投资仅占%。第四中国投资为拉美增加了就业机会。  截至 2021 中国在拉美和加勒比地区累计实施了192 项基建项目总投资金额 984 亿美元为当地提供了超 67 万个就业岗位同时近年来滴滴在拉美开展客货运输服务为当地创造了许多就业机会。  据统计20182020 年滴滴在拉美地区的 项投资创造了 1626 万个就业岗位占中国投资在拉美创造就业总量的2874%。

(3) Infrastructure connectivity continues to advance, promoting sustainable development. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) pointed out that infrastructure is a key engine for promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and Latin America needs to build better infrastructure to promote changes to its economic structure.10 In recent years, China has continuously accelerated its infrastructure cooperation with Latin America, playing an important role in promoting regional transportation, energy, and informatization construction. First, China has deepened cooperation in transportation infrastructure construction. Complete transportation infrastructure is crucial for Latin American countries seeking to integrate into the global value chain.11 In recent years, Chinese companies have increased their investment in Latin American transportation infrastructure and have participated in important projects such as the Port of Chancay in Peru, the reconstruction of the Belgrano Railway in Argentina, the Tren Maya in Mexico, the Oyon-Ambo Highway in Peru, and the Bogota Metro in Colombia. At the beginning of the pandemic, some projects were temporarily suspended due to social control and other reasons. However, after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent, many projects resumed construction and made progress. China–Argentina railway cooperation continues to advance. In early 2022, the two sides signed a number of agreements, including for the modernization of the Belgrano Norte line.12 In 2020, a consortium consisting of China Communications Construction Company and a Portuguese company won the bidding for the first section of the Tren Maya project in Mexico. Construction on the project is accelerating, and the companies hope to begin operations on this section of the railway by the end of 2023.13 In 2021, Chinese companies signed new contracts worth U.S. $19.98 billion in Latin America and achieved a turnover of U.S. $7.97 billion. As of the end of 2021, Chinese companies had signed a total of U.S. $237.15 billion in contracting engineering contracts in the region and achieved a turnover of U.S. $152.4 billion.14 

设施联通不断推进促进可持续发展联合国拉美经委会指出基础设施是促进包容性和可持续经济增长的关键引擎拉美地区需建立更好的基础设施以促进经济结构变革近年来中国不断加快与拉美基建合作为促进地区交通能源信息化建设发挥了重要作用  一是深化交通基础设施建设合作完善的交通基础设施对寻求融入全球价值链的拉美国家十分重要近年来中国企业加大对拉美交通基建投资参与了秘鲁钱凯港口阿根廷贝尔格拉诺铁路改造墨西哥玛雅铁路秘鲁奥永公路哥伦比亚波哥大地铁建设等重要项目。  疫情初期部分项目因社会管控等原因一度停工。  但疫情得到一定控制后许多项目恢复建设并取得进展。  中阿铁路合作持续推进2022 年初双方签署了包括贝尔格拉诺铁路北线现代化改造在内的多份协议2020 中国交通建设公司与葡萄牙公司组成的联合体获得墨西哥玛雅铁路一号标段项目目前正加速推进施工争取 2023 年底该段铁路投入使用2021 年中国企业在拉美新签合同额199 亿美元完成营业额 79 亿美元。  截至2021 年底中企在该地区累计签订承包工程合同额2371 亿美元完成营业额1524 亿美元

Second, China has increased cooperation in clean energy development and power grid construction. In recent years, Chinese companies have increased their participation in clean energy projects in Latin America, such as solar and wind power projects. In September 2020, the Cauchari Solar Plant project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, in which Shanghai Electric Power Construction participated in the construction, was put into commercial operation. Xinjiang Jinfeng Technology has long cooperated with Chile and signed its fourth wind power project in 2021. In 2022, the Chinese company Ming Yang Smart Energy started construction of an offshore wind power project in Brazil.15 At the same time, Huawei leverages its advanced smart photovoltaic and energy storage technologies to provide applications for power stations and off-grid communities in Latin American countries. Clean energy projects such as the solar power plant in Jujuy Province, Argentina, the rooftop photovoltaic power station at the Santiago International Airport in Chile, and the 4MWh energy storage project in Escuintla, Guatemala all use Huawei technology.16 

二是加大清洁能源开发和电网建设合作近年来中国企业加大参与拉美太阳能风能等清洁能源项目。 2020 上海电建参与建设的阿根廷胡胡伊省高查瑞光伏电站项目投入商业运营新疆金凤科技长期与智利开展合作,2021 年已签署第四个风电项目。 2022 中企明阳智能在巴西启动海上风电项目建设同时华为凭借先进的智能光伏和储能技为拉美国家电站和离网社区提供应用。  阿根廷胡胡伊省太阳能电站智利首都机场屋顶光伏危地马拉埃斯库因特拉 4MWh 储能等清洁能源项目都运用了华为技术

Third, China has continued to strengthen digital infrastructure cooperation. The technological advantages of Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE in the 5G and the Internet fields have created new opportunities for the construction of the China–Latin America “Digital Silk Road.” In recent years, Huawei Cloud has provided stable and reliable cloud services to Latin America, assisting in the digital transformation of fields such as retail, logistics, education, finance, and medicine in the region. Following on its business operations in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, Huawei Cloud started service cooperation in Argentina and Peru in 2020, making it one of the cloud service providers with the richest node resources in Latin America.17 Alicia Bárcena, former executive secretary of ECLAC, said that “the Belt and Road Initiative has become a model for cooperation between China and Latin America to enhance connectivity.”18 

三是持续加强数字基础设施合作。  华为中兴等中国企业在5G 和互联网领域的技术领先优势为中拉 数字丝绸之路建设创造了新机遇。  近年来华为云为拉美提供稳定可靠的云服务助力拉美零售物流教育金融医疗等领域数字化转型。  继在智利巴西墨西哥开展业务后2020 年华为云在阿根廷和秘鲁开启服务合作成为在拉美节点资源最丰富的云服务提供商之一联合国拉美经委会前执行秘书阿莉西亚·巴尔塞纳称“‘ 一带一路已成为中拉提升互联互通能力的合作范本”。

(4) China and Latin America carried out anti-pandemic cooperation and built a “Health Silk Road.” After the outbreak of the pandemic, China and Latin America helped each other. At the beginning of the pandemic, Latin American countries generously donated medical supplies to China. After the pandemic spread across the world, China provided a large amount of vaccines and medical supplies to Latin America, and sent medical teams to Venezuela and other countries to provide assistance, which was well received by the people of Latin America. Former Chilean President Piñera, Peruvian President Castillo, and other Latin American heads of state personally received shipments of Chinese vaccines. Serrana, a city in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, joined the China–Brazil vaccine cooperation trial and vaccinated its citizens with the Sinovac vaccine. Data from May 2021 showed that the vaccine reduced the hospitalization rate and mortality rate of infected people by 86% and 95% respectively.19 China also concluded agreements on local vaccine production with Mexico and other countries to help Latin American countries speed up vaccination.20 Alicia Bárcena, executive secretary of ECLAC, said that China’s medical assistance to Latin America provided important support for the implementation of the regional health cooperation plan adopted at the 6th CELAC Summit in 2020.21 

开展抗疫合作打造健康丝绸之路”。 疫情暴发后中拉守望相助。  疫情初期拉美国家向中国慷慨捐赠医疗物资。  疫情蔓延至全球后中国向拉美提供大量疫苗及医疗物资并派遣医疗队赴委内瑞拉等国提供援助获得拉美民众好评。  智利前总统皮涅拉秘鲁总统卡斯蒂略等拉美国家元首亲自接种中国疫苗。  巴西圣保罗州城市塞拉纳加入中巴疫苗合作试验为该市市民接种科兴疫苗2021 月数据显示疫苗使感染者住院率和死亡率分别降低了 8695%。 中国还与墨西哥等国达成疫苗本地化生产协帮助拉美国家加快疫苗接种联合国拉美经委会执行秘书长阿利西亚·巴尔塞纳表示中国对拉医疗援助为2020 年第六届拉共体峰会通过的地区医疗卫生合作计划的实施提供了重要支持

(5) People-to-people exchanges continue to strengthen, consolidating a foundation for cooperation. People-to-people connectivity provides a solid public opinion basis and social foundation for advancing the construction of the “Belt and Road”. The Chinese people’s understanding of Latin America is deepening day by day. The popularity of the Spanish language in China continues to rise. As of May 2022, there are 99 colleges and universities offering Spanish majors.22 In addition to classic writers such as Márquez and Borges, translations of other best-selling Latin American writers such as Brazilian writer Paulo Coelho, Chilean writer Bolaño, and Uruguayan writer Galeano have become very popular in China.23 Latin American people’s understanding of China is also constantly improving. China Global Television Network has opened up publicity channels on new media such as Facebook. The number of Latin American students studying in China continues to increase. At the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum, China pledged to provide 5,000 scholarships and 3,000 training opportunities to Latin America from 2022 to 2024.24 

民间交流不断加强巩固合作根基民心相通为推进一带一路建设提供坚实民意基础和社会根基。  中国民众对拉美的了解日益加深。  国内西班牙语热持续升温截至 2022 开设西班牙语专业的高校已经达到99 除马尔克斯博尔赫斯等经典作家外巴西作家保罗·柯艾略智利作家博拉尼奥乌拉圭作家加莱亚诺等拉美畅销作家成为中国新的译介热点拉美民众对华了解也不断提升中国国际电视台在脸书等新媒体开辟了宣传渠道拉美赴华留学生持续增加在中拉论坛第三届部长级会议上中方承诺20222024 年向拉美提供5000 个奖学金名额和3000 个培训名额

II. Favorable factors for promoting China–Latin America cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative 

推进中拉一带一路合作的有利因素 

(1) There is growing political will in China and Latin America to advance cooperation. 

)  中拉推进合作的政治意愿不断加强 

China regards Latin America as an important force and diplomatic foundation in a multipolar world, and has always planned the blueprint of its relations with Latin American countries from a strategic and long-term perspective. Since the 18th Party Congress, Latin America’s status in China’s diplomacy has continued to rise. Leaders of China and Latin American countries have established a high degree of mutual political trust and jointly established a new positioning for the China–Latin America comprehensive cooperative partnership. China has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with many countries including Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and Argentina. China also established the China–CELAC Forum with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), the largest integration organization in Latin America, and successfully held the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum at the end of 2021. 

中国视拉美为多极化世界中的重要力量和外交基础之一始终从战略高度和长远角度谋划与拉美国家的关系蓝图。  党的十八大以来拉美在中国外交中的地位不断上升中国和拉美国家领导人建立了高度的政治互信共同确立了中拉全面合作伙伴关系的新定位。  中国与巴西阿根廷墨西哥委内瑞拉阿根廷等多国建立了全面战略伙伴关系与拉美最大的一体化组织拉美暨加勒比国家共同体成立了中拉论坛并于 2021  年底成功召开中拉论坛第三届部长级会议 

At present, the values of the world’s major powers are becoming increasingly antagonistic and the global political and economic system is trending towards division. However, the internal driving force of globalization still exists, a large number of international cooperation mechanisms are still in operation, most countries still need to conduct exchanges based on rules, and there is still room for cooperation at the level of mechanisms, norms, and standards.25 China and Latin American countries share a consensus on promoting multilateralism, free trade, and globalization. China adheres to the path of peaceful development, focuses on building a community of common destiny for humanity and jointly building the “Belt and Road,” and proposed the Global Development Initiative. These actions have received positive responses from many countries, including Latin American countries. At the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum, one after another, foreign ministers of the CELAC member states expressed that the “Belt and Road” initiative could become an important means of deepening China–Latin America cooperation.26 

当前世界大国价值观日益对立全球性政治经济体系走向分裂但全球化的内在驱动力尚存大量国际间合作机制仍在运转多数国家仍需要以规则为基础开展交流机制性规范标准层面的合作仍有可中国与拉美国家在推动多边主义自由贸易和全球化上拥有共识。  中国坚持走和平发展道路着眼构建人类命运共同体和共建一带一路”,提出全球发展倡议得到了包括拉美国家在内的广大国家的积极响应。  在中拉论坛第三届部长级会议上拉共体成员国外长纷纷表示一带一路可成为深化中拉合作的重要途径

Faced with complex and fierce competition among major powers, most Latin American countries adhere to foreign policies of diversification. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, most Latin American countries expressed their neutral stance and refused to follow the United States in condemning or sanctioning Russia. Moreover, the Biden administration’s continued interference in the internal affairs of Latin American countries has also caused dissatisfaction among many countries. In June 2022, the United States refused to invite the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua to attend the 9th Summit of the Americas, resulting in the absence of the heads of state of ten Latin American countries from the summit. In addition, the United States adheres to the idea of “putting its own interests first” and has been “all talk and no action” with respect to Latin American countries, which has made the latter quite disillusioned. At the beginning of 2021, Latin America sought help from many parties due to the severe pandemic. China, Russia, and other countries provided timely assistance to Latin America, while the United States continued to stockpile vaccines in large quantities. It was not until June 2021 that the United States began to provide vaccines to Latin America, and this was due to concerns that other countries would meddle in its “backyard.” This selfish behavior of the United States has caused dissatisfaction among Latin American countries.27 The above factors objectively push Latin American countries to continue to value cooperation with countries outside the region, such as China and Russia. 

面对复杂激烈的大国博弈大多数拉美国家坚持多元化外交政策。  乌克兰危机爆发后拉美多数国家表达了本国中立立场拒绝追随美国谴责或制裁俄罗斯。  而且拜登政府继续干涉拉美国家内政的做法亦引起多国不满。  2022 美国拒绝邀请古巴委内瑞拉和尼加拉瓜领导人出席第九届美洲峰会导致拉美十国元首缺席峰会。  此外美国秉持本国利益优先思想对拉美国家口惠而实不至”, 令后者颇为失望。  2021 年初拉美因疫情严重向多方求援俄等国向拉美雪中送炭而美国则继续大量囤积疫苗。  直到2021 美国因担忧后院被他国染指才开始向拉美提供疫苗。  美国这种自私的做法引起了拉美国家的不满上述因素均客观上促使拉美国家依然看重与中国俄罗斯等域外国家的合作 

(2) China needs to strengthen cooperation with Latin America to achieve the new development pattern of “dual circulation. 

中国为实现双循环新发展格局需加强对拉合作 

Since the reform and opening up, China’s interactions with the world have become increasingly frequent. After the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China proposed to accelerate the construction of a new pattern of development that takes domestic great circulation as the mainstay and in which domestic and international dual circulation are mutually reinforcing. Here, domestic circulation and international circulation are in a dialectical unity, promoting and complementing each other.28 In 2022, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the Report on the Work of the Government that we must continue to expand high-level opening up to the outside world, promote the steady development of foreign trade and foreign investment, and use high-level opening up to promote in-depth reform and advance high-quality development.29 Against the backdrop of intensified Sino-U.S. competition and increasing downward pressure on China’s economy, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an important tool by which China can achieve “dual circulation” and expand economic and trade cooperation with the rest of the world. First, we must maintain supply chain security. Under the current complex international situation, the security and resilience of global supply chains face great challenges.30 Many Latin American countries are important global exporters of bulk commodities as well as important sources of raw materials and processed products such as soybeans, iron ore, and copper ore for China. China can strengthen cooperation with Latin America in areas such as agriculture, mining, and energy to ensure the security of its own and global supply chains. Second, we must consolidate trade cooperation. China–Latin America trade still has great potential for development. In 2021, China’s foreign trade in goods reached a record high of U.S. $6.05 trillion, but the volume of China–Latin America trade was only U.S. $450 billion, accounting for only 7.4%.31 Further advancing China–Latin America economic and trade relations is crucial if China is to optimize its international market layout. Third, we must strengthen production chain cooperation. Strengthening production capacity cooperation with Latin American countries can create more external opportunities for Chinese companies, provide greater space for China to deploy its production chains on a global scale, and help maintain the security of the production chains in China and Latin America. China can also strengthen cooperation with Latin American countries in areas such as renewable energy, e-commerce, cross-border logistics, and finance, and promote the transformation and upgrade of its own industries through high-level cooperation. 

自改革开放以来中国和世界的互动日益频繁2020 年全球新冠肺炎疫情暴发后中国提出加快构建以国内大循环为主体国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。  其中国内循环和国际循环是辩证统一关系相互促进相得益彰2022 李克强总理在中国政府工作报告中指出要继续扩大高水平对外开放推动外贸外资平稳发展以高水平开放促进深层次改革推动高质量发展在中美博弈加剧和中国经济下行压力增大的背景下,“ 一带一路倡议是我国实现双循环和拓展对外经贸合作的重要抓手一是维护供应链安全。  在当前复杂的国际局势下全球供应链的安全与韧性遭遇极大挑战而拉美多国是全球重要大宗商品出口国也是中国进口大豆铁矿铜矿等原材料和加工制成品的重要来源地。  中国可与拉美加强农业矿产能源等领域合作保障自身及全球供应链安全。  二是巩固贸易链合作。  中拉贸易仍有较大发展潜力。  2021 中国对外货物贸易额达到05 万亿美元的历史最高记录但中拉贸易额为 4500 亿美元仅占 %。进一步推进中拉经贸关系对于中国优化国际市场布局至关重要。  三是加强产业链合作。  加强与拉美国家的产能合作能够为中国企业创造更多外部机遇为中国在全球布局产业链提供更大空间有助于维护中国和拉美地区产业链安全。  中国还可与拉美国家在可再生能源电子商务跨境物流金融等领域加强合作以高水平合作促进自身产业转型升级

(3) Latin American countries hope to strengthen cooperation with China to promote sustainable development. Currently, unbalanced development remains a severe problem in Latin America, and achieving the goal of sustainable development is an important task facing the region. Using the “Belt and Road” as a lever to promote China–Latin America cooperation and advocating an “open, inclusive, interconnected, and sustainable” world economy will help Latin American countries promote sustainable development. First, cooperation can help Latin America stabilize its foreign trade. Most Latin American countries have export-oriented economies. In 2020, Latin America experienced its worst recession since 1900, with the region’s economy shrinking by 6.8%. Against the backdrop of the ongoing pandemic, the strong growth of China–Latin America trade has become a “stabilizer” for Latin America’s foreign trade. Latin American countries are still facing problems such as inflation and slow labor market recovery. The region’s economic growth rate in 2022 was only 3.7%, and it is expected to decline to 1.3% in 2023.32 Promoting trade between China and Latin America will assist in the economic recovery of Latin American countries. 

拉美国家希望加强对华合作以推动可持续发展当前拉美地区发展不平衡问题依然严峻实现可持续发展目标是该地区面临的重要任务。  一带一路为抓手推进中拉合作倡导开放包容联动可持续的世界经济有助于拉美国家推进可持续发展一是有助于拉美稳定外贸。  大部分拉美国家为外向型经济体。  2020 年拉美经历了 1900 年以来最严重的衰退经济萎缩达%。  在疫情持续背景下走势强劲的中拉贸易成为拉美外贸的稳定器”。  当前拉美国家依然面临通胀和劳动力市场恢复缓慢等问题,2022 年经济增长率仅达3.7%,预计2023 年将下滑至1.3%。促进中拉贸易往来有助于拉美国家经济复苏 

Second, cooperation can help promote infrastructure construction in Latin America. According to statistics from the Inter-American Development Bank, if Latin America wants to achieve its sustainable development goals by 2030, it needs to invest $2.22 trillion in drinking water, sanitation, transportation, and telecommunications, and the annual investment must reach 3.12% of the region’s GDP.33 However, most Latin American countries are facing financial constraints and urgently need to attract more foreign investment. In terms of power development and grid construction, as of 2018, only Barbados and Uruguay have basically achieved full electricity coverage, while many countries including Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela have not yet achieved universal access to electricity.34 The demand for electricity in Latin America and the Caribbean will double between 2019 and 2040.35 This will place higher demands on Latin America’s power generation capacity and grid coverage. In terms of transportation infrastructure, Latin America has long relied on road and air transport as the main means of transportation, while railways, subways, and other facilities have been relatively underdeveloped. According to statistics from the Inter-American Development Bank in 2018, Latin America’s logistics infrastructure score is only higher than South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.36 The logistics levels of Peru, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, El Salvador, and other countries rank in the middle and lower portions of the list of 160 countries.37 In terms of drinking water and sanitation facilities, less than 80% of urban households in countries such as Mexico, Bolivia, and Jamaica have access to tap water, and the proportion in rural areas is even lower.38 Only in certain countries, including Chile, Colombia, and Peru does the urban sewer system coverage rate exceed 80%, while in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and other countries the rural sewer coverage rate is almost zero.39 In addition, as the Fourth Industrial Revolution deepens, the need for developing countries to advance their digitalization construction is becoming increasingly urgent. China can leverage its own advantages to carry out cooperation with Latin American countries in digitalization and promote Latin America’s digital transformation in areas such as transportation, electricity, education, and artificial intelligence (AI). 

二是可助推拉美基础设施建设。  据美洲开发银行统计拉美地区要2030 年实现可持续发展目标需在饮用水卫生交通和电信领域投资22 万亿美元每年投入的资金需达地区生产总值的 12%。而拉美多数国家面临财政紧缺状况急需吸引更多外资在电力开发和电网建设方面截至 2018 年仅有巴巴多斯和乌拉圭基本实现电力全覆盖墨西哥阿根廷委内瑞拉等多国尚未实现全民供电 20192040 年拉美和加勒比地区对电力的需求将翻倍这将对拉美发电能力和电网覆盖率提出更高要求在交通基础设施方面拉美地区长期以公路和空运为主要运输途径铁路地铁等设施发展相对落后。  2018 年美洲开发银行统计拉美物流基础设施评分仅高于南亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲地区秘鲁乌拉圭多米尼加共和国委内瑞拉萨尔瓦多等多国物流水平在全球160 个国家中排名居于中下游水平在饮用水和卫生设施方面墨西哥玻利维亚牙买加等国城市自来水入户比例不足80%,在农村地区的比例则更低仅智利哥伦比亚秘鲁等国城市下水道系统覆盖率超过80%,尼加拉瓜萨尔瓦多等国农村下水道覆盖率几乎为 此外随着第四次工业革命深入展开广大发展中国家推进数字化建设的需求日益强烈。  中国可借助自身优势与拉美国家开展数字化合作推动拉美在交通电力教育人工智能等领域的数字化转型

Third, cooperation can promote regional integration. Integration in Latin America has been slow, and it is one of the regions with the lowest proportion of intra-regional trade in the world. In Latin America, intra-regional trade accounts for 20% of the region’s total trade, far lower than in the European Union (60%) and East Asia (50%).40 Infrastructure integration is a necessary condition for the promotion of production integration. ECLAC continues to call on Latin America to increase its level of integration in order to cope with external risks.41 Under the “Belt and Road” initiative, Latin American countries can promote regional integration through infrastructure construction and enhance the level of trade and overall competitiveness within the region. 

三是促进地区一体化拉美地区一体化进展缓慢是世界上区域内贸易比例最低的地区之一区域内贸易占其贸易总额的比例为 20%, 远远低于欧盟(60%) 和东亚地区 50%)。而基础设施一体化是促进生产一体化的必要条件拉美经委会持续呼吁拉美提高一体化水平以应对外部风险一带一路倡议下拉美国家可通过基础设施建设促进地区一体化发展提升区域内的贸易水平和整体竞争力 

III. Challenges facing China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative 

中拉一带一路合作面临的挑战 

The current international and regional situation is complex and changeable. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to ferment, economic globalization has encountered headwinds, China–U.S. competition in Latin America has intensified, and unstable factors still exist in some Latin American countries. In this context, China–Latin America “Belt and Road” cooperation faces many risks and challenges. 

当前国际和地区局势复杂多变俄乌冲突持续发酵经济全球化遭遇逆流中美在拉美地区博弈加剧部分拉美国家不稳定因素犹存中拉一带一路合作面临诸多风险和挑战 

(1) Political risks in Latin America cannot be ignored. 

拉美地区政治风险不容忽视 

The political ecosystem of Latin America has always been characterized by a cyclical pattern of power alternation between left and right. However, in recent years, the region’s political arena has been chaotic, the left-vs-right game has intensified, and domestic and foreign policies face certain uncertainties. Especially after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Latin America has fallen into a crisis of political infighting, economic recession, and social imbalance. The outside world believes that Latin America is entering “another lost decade.” The Latin American left has continued to rise recently, but with increasing internal and external factors of instability, the newly-elected left-wing parties in Latin America are facing a difficult transformation, and right-wing forces are waiting for an opportunity to make a comeback. Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition “Citizen’s Unity” is facing a crisis. Political differences between President Alberto Fernandez and Vice President Cristina and the latter’s recent investigation for corruption have caused the government’s reputation to plummet. In May 2022, public satisfaction with the government had dropped to 35.4% from 60.8% in November 2020.42 The dispute between the Peruvian government and the parliament continues to intensify, and President Pedro Castillo was impeached and removed from office by Congress. Chilean President Gabriel Boric’s slow progress in reforms, coupled with continued domestic inflation and the ongoing fermentation of the Mapuche issue in the south, have intensified public dissatisfaction with the government.43 Governments are busy consolidating their ruling positions and promoting domestic reforms, and their energy for external cooperation is inevitably affected. The left-right game in Latin America continues to intensify, and changes in national regimes are likely to lead to a lack of continuity in their foreign policies. Overall, the promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative in Latin America still confronts a relatively complex political environment, and businesses operating in Latin America face certain challenges. 

拉美地区政治生态历来具有左右轮流执政的周期性特点。  但近年来该地区政坛乱象丛生左右博弈加剧各国内外政策面临一定不确定性。  尤其是在 2020 年新冠肺炎疫情暴发后拉美陷入政治内斗经济衰退社会失衡的危机。  外界认为拉美正进入又一个失去的十年”。  近期拉美左翼持续崛起但在内外不稳定因素增多的情况下新上台的拉美左翼政党面临艰难转型右翼力量伺机东山再起。  阿根廷左翼执政联盟全民阵线执政危机四伏总统阿尔韦托·费尔南德斯与副总统克里斯蒂娜政见不和近期后者又因涉腐被调查导致政府口碑直线下滑。  2022 月民众对政府满意度已从2020 11 月的60下跌至35%。秘鲁府院之争持续白热化佩德罗·卡斯蒂略总统遭国会弹劾下台。  智利总统加夫列尔·博里奇改革推进缓慢加之国内通胀持续南部马普切人问题继续发酵民众对政府不满加剧各国政府忙于巩固执政地位和推进国内改革对外合作精力难免受到牵扯。  拉美左右博弈持续加剧国家政权更迭易造成其对外政策延续性不足。  总体看,“ 一带一路在拉美地区的推进仍然面临较为复杂的政治环境在拉企业经营面临一定挑战 

(2) Economic risks continue to ferment in Latin American countries. For a long time, Latin American countries have had problems with insufficient resilience and risk resistance in their economic structures. Under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Latin America’s economic recovery has slowed down and the region faces numerous economic risks. One is the risk of disruption in food supply chains. The current global pandemic situation is becoming more uncertain. As an important source of imports of soybeans and corn for China, Latin America’s food production and transportation have been affected to a certain extent. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. sanctions on Russia have had a wide-ranging impact on global fertilizer supply, posing a major risk to Latin American soybean and corn production. The second is the debt risk. In recent years, the fiscal conditions of Latin American countries have deteriorated and the pressure of foreign debt has increased sharply. In particular, Argentina suffered a financial crisis and owed huge sums of money to the International Monetary Fund. As of the first quarter of 2022, the country’s total foreign debt had reached U.S. $274.355 billion.44 El Salvador’s public debt accounts for more than 80% of its GDP, and about $800 million in debt will mature in 2023.45 A debt crisis in Latin American countries will inevitably impact Chinese investment and project construction in the region. The third is the exchange rate risk. The economic structures of many Latin American countries are fragile, their ability to resist risks is poor, and their exchange rates are subject to significant fluctuations. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in early 2022, the global economic situation has become increasingly unstable, the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes have produced spillover effects, and Latin American countries are facing pressure from rising inflation and currency depreciation. In June 2022, the inflation rates in Venezuela and Argentina reached 14.5% and 5.3% respectively, and the annual inflation rates are expected to reach 53.5% and 36.2% respectively.46 From the end of 2021 to July 2022, the U.S. dollar appreciated significantly against the currencies of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and other countries, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chilean peso reached a record of 1:1000 for a time.47 High inflation and exchange rate fluctuations may affect Latin America’s ability to attract foreign investment and even cause some existing foreign investment to leave. The fourth is the risk of protectionism. Nationalist tendencies have intensified in Latin America. Mexican President Lopez and Peruvian President Castillo both advocate prioritizing their respective countries, and trade protectionism and some more radical nationalization policies may affect foreign cooperation. At the same time, against the backdrop of the economic downturn, some Latin American countries have launched anti-dumping investigations in order to improve their export trade or set up barriers against Chinese products and investment. The risk of trade frictions should not be underestimated. 

拉美国家经济风险持续酝酿长期以来拉美国家存在经济结构韧性和抗风险能力不足的问题在俄乌冲突冲击下拉美经济复苏放缓并面临多重经济风险。  一是粮食供应链断裂的风险。  当前全球疫情走势不确定性增加拉美作为我国大豆和玉米的重要进口来源地粮食生产和运输受到一定影响。  在乌克兰危机背景下美国对俄罗斯的制裁对全球化肥供应造成广泛影响给拉美大豆和玉米生产带来较大风险二是债务风险。  近年来拉美国家财政状况恶化外债压力陡增。  尤其是阿根廷遭遇金融危机欠下国际货币基金组织巨额款项截至2022 年第一季度外债总额已达 274355 亿美元萨尔瓦多公共债务占国内生产总值的比例已超过80%, 亿美元债务将于2023年到期一旦拉美国家发生债务危机我国在当地的投资和工程建设将受冲击。  三是汇率风险。  拉美多国经济结构脆弱抗风险能力差汇率波动大2022 年初俄乌危机爆发以来全球经济形势不稳加剧美联储持续加息产生外溢效应拉美国家面临通胀攀升和货币贬值压力。  2022 月委内瑞拉和阿根廷的通胀率分别达到14%,预计全年通胀率将分别达到 53 36%。 2021 年底至 2022 美元兑阿根廷智利哥伦比亚等国货币均大幅升值美元兑智利比索汇率一度达到 1000的记录通胀高企和汇率波动恐影响拉美吸引外资甚至造成部分外资流失。  四是保护主义风险。  拉美地区民族主义倾向有所加剧。  墨西哥总统洛佩斯秘鲁总统卡斯蒂略等均主张国内优先贸易保护主义和一些较为激进的国有化政策或影响对外合作。  同时在经济低迷背景下部分拉美国家为改善出口贸易或对中国产品和投资设置壁垒发起反倾销调查贸易摩擦风险不容低估 

(3) There are some differences in the Chinese and Latin American understandings of development. China and Latin American countries are geographically distant, with great differences in political systems and cultures, as well as differences in discourse systems and ways of thinking. Latin America was long colonized by European and North American countries, and is prone to suspicion of foreign forces and foreign capital. Due to their cultural traditions, some Latin American Indigenous peoples attach great importance to environmental protection and even say that they would forgo development if was in conflict with environmental protection. In addition, the U.S. and European media have a strong influence in Latin America, and the “China threat theory,” “colonial plunder theory,” and “debt trap theory” still find a certain audience in Latin America. Some Latin American media outlets have stated that China has not only burdened Latin American countries with huge debts by providing loans to them, but also failed to fulfill its extraterritorial obligations with regard to human rights. They have also accused Chinese companies of violating community rights, damaging the local environment, and so on.48 In recent years, social movements have emerged one after another in Latin American countries. In Ecuador and other countries, there have been many social movements in which Indigenous peoples oppose government development projects, and these have had a certain impact on Chinese companies’ projects in local areas. Finding a way to strengthen communication and seek common ground while setting aside differences on the above-mentioned issues is a major challenge facing “Belt and Road” cooperation between China and Latin America. 

中拉在发展认知上存在部分差异中国与拉美国家地理相距遥远政治制度和文化差异较大话语体系和思维方式亦存在区别。  拉美地区长期遭受欧美国家殖民容易对外国势力和外国资本产生疑虑。  部分拉美原住民因其文化传统原因高度重视环境保护甚至表示宁可不发展也要保护环境。  加之美欧媒体在拉美地区有较强的影响力,“ 中国威胁论”、 “ 殖民掠夺论”、“ 债务陷阱论等在拉美仍有一定市场。  部分拉美媒体称中国不仅通过向拉美国家提供贷款使后者背负巨额债务而且未能履行其在人权方面的域外义务还指责中国企业侵犯社区权利破坏当地环境等等近年来拉美国家社会运动此起彼伏厄瓜多尔等国多次发生原住民反对政府开发项目的社会运动对中企在当地的项目造成一定冲击。  如何针对上述问题加强沟通求同存异是中拉一带一路合作面临的一大挑战 

(4) The United States has increased its interference in China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. The Trump administration has characterized China as a “competitor” and primary “adversary” of the United States. The 2017 National Security Strategy attempted to completely negate the policy of engagement with China pursued by the U.S. government in the past and proposed a China strategy that was essentially a zero-sum mentality.49 After taking office, Biden continued to view China as a strategic competitor of the United States and viewed strategic competition with China as an important means to reverse relative decline and regain U.S. global leadership. At the same time, voices from U.S. conservatives and the military calling for curbing China–Latin America cooperation continue to grow stronger. In March 2022, U.S. Southern Command Commander Laura Richardson and Senator Marco Rubio accused China of expanding its influence in Latin America and undermining regional security and stability at a U.S. Senate hearing.50 They falsely claimed that China was using loans from the Belt and Road Initiative to trap Latin American countries.51 Pushed in this direction by multiple factors, excluding China’s influence in Latin America remains one of the focuses of Biden’s Latin American policy. Although, on the surface, Biden does not appear to interfere in Latin America’s internal affairs as blatantly as Trump, the core of his anti-China exclusion policy has not changed. Latin America is increasingly becoming one of the battlefields in the strategic game between China and the United States. First, the United States sows discord between China and Latin America by smearing China. Since 2021, senior U.S. officials have never failed to mention China when visiting Latin America, hawking arguments such as the “China threat theory,” “debt trap theory,” and “resource plunder theory” to Latin American governments, and warning Latin American countries to be aware of China’s “harmful activities.” At the same time, the U.S. is  also using its control over Latin American media to intensify public opinion propaganda, causing some Latin American media to fixate on topics such as China’s “threat to cybersecurity” and “violations of human rights.” At the end of March 2022, Mr. Natiello, an official of the U.S. Agency for International Development, told the Senate that the United States is stepping up investigations and reporting on illegal and unregulated fishing by Chinese fishing vessels off the coast of Ecuador.52 Second, the United States increases the intensity of “anti-Chinese exclusion” through rule-making. After taking office, Biden introduced a number of cooperation initiatives in an attempt to incorporate more countries into the cooperation mechanisms established by the United States and accelerate “decoupling” from China. At the G7 summit held in June 2021, the United States proposed the “Build Back a Better World” plan, intending to increase the binding of its own economic and trade interests with various countries and the formulation of cooperative rules so as to contain China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.53 In September of the same year, the United States took the lead in selling the plan to Latin America, sending Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Daleep Singh to lead a delegation that visited Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama and pledged to provide funding for projects in fields such as agriculture, women’s development, and digital integration in the three countries.54 After proposing the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity,” Biden announced the “Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity” plan at the 9th Summit of the Americas in June 2022. The essential goal of the plan is to lock in Latin American resources, energy, and markets, while using rules such as transparency, security, and labor standards to exclude China from the regional supply chain system, forcing the Latin American and Chinese economies to decouple, and thereby establishing a global system of rules to contain China and achieve the strategic goal of regulating China. Third, the United States uses cooperation mechanisms to exert direct pressure. The U.S. government uses existing cooperation agreements with Latin American countries to constantly force Latin American countries to choose sides between China and the United States in order to contain China–Latin America cooperation. In October 2021, China Aerospace Information Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the Chilean Civil Registry Project and planned to provide relevant system construction services for the country’s Civil Registry and Identification Service. After the news was announced, the United States immediately sent a delegation to Chile and threatened to cancel its visa-free program for Chile on the grounds of “security review,” forcing Chile to cancel its cooperation project with China Aerospace Information Technology.55 In addition, the United States has used similar means to continue to suppress China–Latin America cooperation in areas such as 5G and new energy. Amid continued interference and obstruction from the United States, China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative may be faced with more complex regional political factors. 

美国加大干涉中拉“ 一带一路” 合作。 特朗普政府将中国定性为竞争对手和首要敌手”, 2017 年版国家安全战略报告试图彻底否定过去美国政府奉行的对华接触政策提出本质上是零和思维的对华战略拜登上台后继续视中国为美国战略竞争对手将与华战略竞争视作扭转其相对衰落态势重振全球领导地位的重要手段。  同时美国保守派和军方遏制中拉合作的声音持续走强。  2022 美国南方司令部司令劳拉·理查德森和参议员马克·卢比奥先后在美参议院听证会上指责中国在拉美扩大影响力冲击地区安全稳定妄称中国通过一带一路合作的贷款来困住拉美国家在多重因素作用下排挤中国在拉美的影响力仍是拜登对拉政策的重点之一。  虽然拜登表面不似特朗普般粗暴干涉拉美内政但其排华护院的政策核心并未改变拉美地区日益沦为中美博弈的战场之一。  一是通过抹黑中国挑拨离间中拉关系。  2021 年以来美国高层访问拉美时言必提及中国向拉美政府兜售中国威胁论”、“ 债务陷阱论”、“资源掠夺论等论调警告拉美国家注意中国的 有害活动”。  同时美方还利用对拉美媒体的控制力加大舆论宣传致使部分拉美媒体渲染中国危害网络安全”、“侵犯人权等话题。  2022 月底美国际开发署官员纳铁略在参议院称美正加大调查和报道中国渔船在厄瓜多尔海岸非法和无管制捕捞问题二是通过规则制定加大排华护院力度。  拜登上台后出台多项合作倡议企图将更多国家纳入美国制定的合作机制以加速与中国脱钩”。  2021 月召开的七国集团峰会中美国提出重建更好世界计划欲加大与各国经贸利益捆绑和合作规则制定以遏制中国提出的一带一路倡议同年 美国率先向拉美兜售该计划派遣副国家安全顾问兼国家经济委员会副主任达利普·辛格率团访问哥伦比亚厄瓜多尔和巴拿马承诺为三国的农业部门女性发展数字融合等项目提供资金继抛出印太经济框架拜登在 2022 月召开的第九届美洲峰会上宣布美洲经济繁荣伙伴计划。  该计划的本质目标即锁定拉美资源能源和市场同时利用透明度安全性劳工标准等规则将中国排除在地区供应链体系之外迫使拉美与华经济脱钩从而在全球建立遏制中国的规则体系达到规制中国的战略目标。  三是运用对拉合作机制直接施压。  美国政府利用与拉美国家已有的合作协议不断逼迫拉美国家在中美之间选边站以牵制中拉合作2021 10 中国航天信息股份有限公司中标智利民事登记项目计划为该国民事登记局提供相关系统建设。  消息公布后美国立即派遣代表团赴智利安全审视为理由以取消对智免签计划为威胁迫使智利取消与中国航天信息合作项目此外美国还运用类似手段在5G新能源等领域继续对中拉合作进行打压。  在美国的持续干涉和阻挠下中拉一带一路合作或面临更为复杂的地区政治因素 

IV. Suggestions for promoting cooperation between China and Latin America under the Belt and Road Initiative 

推进中拉一带一路合作的相关建议 

As one of the world’s largest developing regions, Latin America is of great strategic significance to China’s realization of the new development pattern of “dual circulation” and the promotion of South-South cooperation. Under the current complex international situation, the “Belt and Road” initiative can become an important platform and leverage point for China and Latin America to deepen cooperation and promote world peace and development. China should be guided by the Global Development Initiative, uphold a correct outlook on ethics and gain, steadily advance China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, strengthen cooperation with Latin American countries in areas such as policy communication, unimpeded trade, financial connectivity, infrastructure connectivity, and people-to-people bonds, build China–Latin America cooperation into a model for South-South cooperation, provide a good example for the sustainable development of developing countries, and play its due role in maintaining global peace and development. 

拉美地区作为全球最大的发展中地区之一对我国实现双循环新发展格局和推进南南合作具有重要战略意义。  在当前复杂的国际局势下,“ 一带一路倡议可成为中拉深化合作促进世界和平与发展的重要平台和抓手。  中国应以全球发展倡议为指引秉持正确的义利观稳步推进中拉一带一路合作加强与拉美国家在政策沟通贸易畅通资金融通设施连通民心相通领域的合作将中拉合作打造为南南合作的示范样板为广大发展中国家可持续发展提供良好范本也为维护全球和平与发展发挥应有的作用

(1) Overall principles and objectives 

总体原则和目标 

China should adhere to the correct view of ethics and gain and the principle of mutual benefit, take South-South cooperation as the main tone, view the creation of a “China–Latin America community of common destiny” as our long-term goal, and jointly promote development and revitalization with Latin American countries. China and Latin America should be guided by the Global Development Initiative, continue to support multilateralism, commit to maintaining the rule-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core, and promote free and open trade and investment. China and Latin America should use the Belt and Road Initiative as a cooperation platform, start with bilateral cooperation, expand the stage for multilateral cooperation, strengthen the connections among the social and economic agenda of the various countries and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development through communication at all levels, promote cooperation between China and Latin America in various fields such as poverty reduction, green development, and women’s development, and play their due roles in building a global development partnership and the great goal of a community of common destiny for humanity. 

中国应坚持正确的义利观和互利共赢原则以南南合作为主基调以构建中拉命运共同体为长期目标与拉美国家共同推动发展振兴。  中拉应以全球发展倡议为指引继续支持多边主义致力于维护以世界贸易组织为核心以规则为基础的多边贸易体系促进自由开放的贸易和投资。  中拉应以一带一路为合作平台从双边合作入手开拓多边合作舞台通过各层级沟通加强彼此社会经济议程和联合国 2030 年可持续发展议程对接促进中拉在减贫绿色发展女性发展等各领域合作为构建全球发展伙伴关系和人类命运共同体伟大目标发挥应有作用 

(2) Continue to comprehensively promote “Five Connectivities” projects 

继续全面推进五通工程 

First, we must strengthen policy communication and consolidate the top-level design of “Belt and Road” construction. China and Latin America need to strengthen leadership by high-level leaders. China should actively strengthen high-level exchanges with Latin American countries to consolidate the political foundation for cooperation. We should send high-level officials to visit Latin America when appropriate, invite senior officials from Latin American countries to visit China for exchanges, and increase coordination around “Belt and Road” cooperation. While promoting bilateral exchanges, we can also push forward regional cooperation between China and Latin America at the regional level. We can make use of existing cooperation frameworks such as the China–CELAC Forum to promote strategic cooperation with Latin America at the regional level, intensify dialogue and consultation with regional and sub-regional organizations such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, ECLAC, the Southern Common Market, the Pacific Alliance, and the Puebla Group, and help promote the integrated development of Latin America. 

第一加强政策沟通夯实一带一路建设的顶层设计中拉需加强高层引领中方应积极加强与拉美国家高层交流夯实合作的政治基础适时派遣高级别官员赴拉美访问并邀请拉美国家高层赴华交流围绕 一带一路合作加大协调在推进双边交往的同时推动中拉地区层面合作利用中拉论坛等现有的合作框架推动与拉美在区域层面的战略合作加大与拉美及加勒比国家共同体联合国拉美经委会南方共同市场太平洋联盟普埃布拉集团等区域和次区域组织的对话磋商助力拉美地区一体化发展 

Second, we must strengthen cooperation in trade chains, supply chains, and production chains and promote trade connectivity. The first thing is to upgrade some bilateral free trade agreements and trade arrangements as appropriate. China can increase imports of Latin American specialty agricultural products such as quinoa, blueberries, avocados, and nuts as well as finished products, and help promote and market Latin American agricultural products in China. We can use our technological and financial advantages to strengthen innovative cooperation with Latin America’s agricultural sectors and solve problems such as fertilizer shortages. We can strengthen the alignment of product market access rules with Latin American countries and promote the export of Chinese mobile phones and other electronic products to Latin America. The second thing is to strengthen e-commerce cooperation with Latin American countries. We can share e-commerce experience with Latin American countries, help them build digital economy platforms, give more Latin American products access to Chinese e-commerce platforms, and promote more Chinese products to enter Latin American e-commerce platforms. We can promote the facilitation of monetary payments, completely break through the geographical barriers faced by China–Latin America trade cooperation, and open up a vast market. The third thing is to strengthen cooperation in manufacturing and green production chains and achieve innovative development. Chinese companies can improve the integration of China–Latin America manufacturing industry chains by expanding investment in local manufacturing based on a thorough investigation of the operational risks in Latin American countries. They can increase investment in Latin America’s green industries and promote the development of new energy, transportation electrification, and other fields in Latin America. Through high-level cooperation in the industrial chain, China and Latin America can promote the integration of markets, technologies, and industries, which can not only help Latin American countries achieve sustainable industrialization, but also provide the driving force for the healthy development of China–Latin America economic cooperation. 

第二强化贸易链供应链和产业链合作促进贸易联通。  一是视情升级部分双边自贸协定和贸易安排。  中方可以加大进口藜麦蓝莓牛油果坚果等拉美特色农产品及制成品帮助拉美农产品在华推广和营销。  运用技术资金优势与拉美农业部门加强创新合作解决化肥短缺等问题。  加强与拉美国家产品市场准入规则对接推动我国手机等电子产品对拉出口二是加强与拉美国家电商合作。  与拉美国家分享电商经验帮助其建设数字经济平台开放更多拉美产品登陆中国的电商平台并且推动更多中国商品进入拉美电子商务平台。  推动货币支付便利化彻底打通中拉贸易合作面临的地理障碍开拓广阔市场。  三是加强制造业和绿色产业链合作实现创新发展。  中企可在充分调研拉美国家运营风险的基础上通过扩大对当地制造业投资完善中拉制造业产业链融合加大对拉美绿色产业投资促进拉美新能源交通电气化等领域的发展。  通过产业链高水平合作中拉可促进市场技术产业融合既可助力拉美国家实现可持续工业化又可为中拉经济合作良性发展提供源动力 

Third, we must enhance the depth of infrastructure cooperation and promote collaboration on sustainable development. The first thing is to strengthen rule-making and supervision. China should increase its guidance and supervision of enterprises with foreign operations, adhere to the spirit of the “Clean Silk Road” and the “Green Silk Road,” urge Chinese companies to respect and abide by the laws and regulations of Latin American countries, increase dialogue with trade unions and environmental protection organizations in Latin American countries, and explore responsible, low-risk, high-quality, and sustainable infrastructure cooperation plans. The second thing is to expand areas of cooperation. In accordance with the sustainable development goals of Latin American countries, we can focus on the construction needs of various countries in infrastructure fields such as transportation, energy, and water supply and create a number of landmark projects to improve the living standards of local people, while helping Latin American countries increase their integration into the global value chain. We can pay more attention to “new infrastructure construction,” strengthen network infrastructure cooperation, and promote the development of the “Digital Silk Road.” We can strengthen medical and health cooperation and jointly build a “Health Silk Road” through medical hardware facilities and R&D cooperation. The third thing is to improve project quality. We can take “sustainability” as the key direction of infrastructure construction cooperation, solve key issues such as financial support, investment environment, and risk management, create more jobs and cultivate human resources for Latin American countries, and promote the sustainable development of the Latin American economies. The fourth thing is to develop innovative cooperation models. We can strengthen communication and cooperation with Latin American companies, promote localized project operations, and promote the mutual benefit of both China and Latin America. We can learn from the experience of enterprises from Europe, the United States, and other regions to better conduct operations in Latin America and explore the joint development of the Latin American market with third-party enterprises. 

第三提升基础设施合作深度推动可持续发展协。  一是加大规则建设和监管力度。  中方应加大对涉外企业的引导和监管力度坚持廉洁丝路绿色丝路精神敦促中国企业尊重和遵守拉美国家法律法规加大与拉美国家工会组织环保组织对话探索负责任低风险高质量可持续的基建合作方案。  二是拓展合作领域。  根据拉美国家可持续发展目标着眼各国在交通能源供水等基础设施领域的建设需求打造一批标志性项目以提高当地民众生活水平同时促进拉美国家加大融入全球价值链。  加大关注新型基础设施建设”,加强网络基建合作推进数字丝绸之路的发展。  加强医疗卫生合作通过医疗硬件设施和研发合作共同打造健康丝绸之路”。  三是提高项目质量。  可持续作为基础设施建设合作的重点方向解决好金融支撑投资环境风险管控等关键问题为拉美国家创造更多就业岗位和培育人力资源促进拉美国家经济可持续发展。  四是创新合作模式。  与拉美企业加强沟通合作推动项目本土化运作促进中拉互利共赢。  借鉴欧美等国企业在拉美地区经营的经验探索与第三方企业联合开发拉美市场 

Fourth, we must strengthen financial connectivity and safeguard China–Latin America economic and trade cooperation. Financial cooperation plays an important supporting role in “Belt and Road” construction. China can consider accepting more Latin American countries into the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other financial cooperation systems as well as the China–Latin America Investment Cooperation Fund at an appropriate time. We can continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America and increase the use of RMB settlement in trade and investment cooperation with Latin American countries to reduce the risks created by fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. We can promote the adoption of RMB investment and bond issuance rules by Latin American enterprises, create conditions for countries to participate in RMB crude oil futures and iron ore futures trading, and provide stable, reliable, efficient, and sustainable financing support for China–Latin America economic and trade cooperation. 

第四加强资金融通保障中拉经贸合作金融合作在一带一路建设中发挥着重要支撑作用。  中方可考虑适时接纳更多拉美国家加入亚投行等金融合作体系以及中拉投资合作基金等继续在拉美推进人民币国际化加大在与拉美国家贸易和投资合作中采用人民币结算以减少美元汇率波动带来的风险。  向拉美企业推介人民币投资债券发行规则为各国参与人民币原油期货铁矿石期货交易创造条件为中拉经贸合作提供稳定可靠高效可持续的融资支持 

Fifth, we must expand areas of exchange and promote mutual understanding between the peoples of China and Latin America. China and Latin American countries should continue to promote exchanges and cooperation in the fields of low-carbon economy, rural construction, medical and health care, disaster prevention and mitigation, culture and art, and women and children’s development, advance mutual learning between China and Latin America and promote sustainable development, and at the same time, build a broad public opinion foundation for China–Latin America cooperation. We can continue to promote educational cooperation between China and Latin American countries, increase support for research in China on the Latin American region and individual countries, and at the same time, cultivate more Latin American people who understand and are friendly to China. We can strengthen international communication capabilities, select a number of outstanding works on topics such as ancient and contemporary Chinese culture, political diplomacy, economic development, and social governance, translate them, and introduce them to Latin American countries. We can combine efforts in traditional media such as television and newspapers with efforts in new media such as social networks to increase the dissemination of Chinese ideas and tell China’s stories well in Latin America.

第五扩大交流领域促进中拉民心相通。  中国和拉美国家应继续推动双方在低碳经济农村建设医疗卫生防灾减灾文化艺术妇女儿童发展等领域的交流合作推进中拉互学互鉴促进可持续发展同时为中拉合作构筑广泛民意基础。  继续推进中国与拉美国家的教育合作加大支持中国的拉美区域国别研究同时培育更多的拉美知华友华派人士。  加强国际传播能力选择一批关于中国古代和现当代文化政治外交经济发展社会治理等议题的优秀作品进行翻译并介绍到拉美国家。  结合电视报纸等传统媒体和社交网络等新媒体在拉美地区加大传播中国理念讲好中国故事

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曹廷 (Cao Ting), 程弋洋 (Cheng Yiyang). "China–Latin America “Belt and Road” Cooperation in the Context of Changes Unseen in a Century [百年变局下的中拉“ 一带一路” 合作]". CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Fudan University Institute of International Studies [复旦大学国际问题研究院], August 5, 2023

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