Latin America is one of the largest developing regions in the world and plays an important role in maintaining the security of global supply chains and production chains. It is also an important partner of China in promoting South-South cooperation and building a “community of common destiny for humanity.” Since the beginning of the 21st century, China–Latin America cooperation has continued to deepen and develop, and China–Latin America relations have become a new type of cooperative relationship based on equality, mutual benefit, innovation, openness, and benefit for the people. Especially starting from the time Latin American countries joined the “Belt and Road” cooperation initiative in 2017, China–Latin America relations have continued to develop rapidly. In recent years, the international political landscape has been constantly shifting, the strategic game between China and the United States has intensified, and the United States has increased its obstruction of China–Latin America cooperation. Since the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe, the world has entered a period of turbulence and change, and Latin America was also hit by the pandemic. In the context of the current complex international situation, it is necessary for China and Latin America to take the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” as their guide in order to promote the optimization, upgrade, and innovative development of cooperation, while also making their due contributions to world peace and development. This article will review the achievements of China–Latin America cooperation made in recent years, analyze the necessity of continued advancement and the challenges faced, and propose relevant countermeasures and suggestions to allow the “Belt and Road” initiative to better promote the quality improvement and upgrade of China–Latin America relations.
拉美地区是世界上最大的发展中地区之一,对于维护全球供应链、产业链安全具有重要作用,同时也是中国推进南南合作、共建“ 人类命运共同体” 的重要合作伙伴。 进入 21 世纪以来,中拉合作不断深入发展,中拉关系成为平等、互利、创新、开放、惠民的新型合作关系。 尤其自 2017 年拉美国家纷纷加入“ 一带一路”合作倡议以来,中拉关系持续快速发展。 近年来,国际政治格局不断调整,中美博弈加剧,美国加大对中拉合作的阻扰。 自新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球以来,世界进入动荡变革期,拉美地区亦受到疫情冲击。 在当前复杂的国际形势下,中拉有必要以共建“一带一路” 为引领,带动合作优化升级、创新发展,同时也为世界和平与发展做出应有的贡献。 本文将梳理近年来中拉合作取得的成就,分析继续推进的必要性以及面临的挑战,并为“一带一路”促进中拉关系提质升级提出相关对策建议。
I. Progress of China–Latin America “Belt and Road” cooperation under changes unseen in a century
一、 百年变局下中拉“ 一带一路” 合作的进展
China adheres to its basic national policy of opening up to the outside world and is committed to building a new pattern of all-around opening up. In particular, the “Belt and Road” initiative has attracted many Latin American countries to join with its concept of open and inclusive cooperation. Against the backdrop of intensified strategic competition among major powers and the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, China and Latin American countries are strengthening collaboration and promoting cooperation, and have achieved a series of fruitful results.
中国坚持以对外开放的基本国策为指引,致力于构建全方位开放的新格局。 尤其“ 一带一路” 倡议以开放包容的合作理念吸引了许多拉美国家加入。 在大国博弈加剧和乌克兰危机持续的背景下,中国与拉美国家加强协作、推进合作,取得了一系列丰硕成果。
(1) High-level exchanges are frequent and policy communication is constantly strengthened. Latin American countries have different national conditions and diverse interests. Strengthening policy communication is an important guarantee of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road.” In recent years, guided by high-level exchanges, China and Latin America have actively built bilateral and multilateral exchange mechanisms and strengthened dialogue and consultation. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, President Xi Jinping communicated with leaders of Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, Peru, and Ecuador through video calls and letters. At the 6th Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) hosted by Mexico in September 2021, President Xi delivered a special video speech. After the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent, high-level officials from China and Latin American countries carried out intensive mutual visits. In early 2022, Argentine President Fernandez and Ecuadorian President Lasso visited China to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. In July 2022, Cai Wei, Director General of the Department of Latin American and Caribbean Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, paid working visits to Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. From April 12 to 15, 2023, Brazilian President Lula led a large delegation to visit China and had a cordial meeting with President Xi.
( 一) 高层交往密切,政策沟通不断加强。 拉美各国国情有所差异、利益诉求多元,加强政策沟通是共建“ 一带一路” 的重要保障。 近年来,中国与拉美以高层交往为引领,积极构建双、多边交流机制,加强对话和协商。 2020 年初新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,习近平主席通过视频通话、信函等方式与巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷、委内瑞拉、智利、秘鲁、厄瓜多尔等拉美国家领导人沟通。 在2021 年9 月墨西哥主办的第六届拉美暨加勒比国家共同体峰会上,习主席特地做视频致辞。疫情得到一定控制后,中国与拉美国家高层开展了密集互访活动。 2022 年初阿根廷总统费尔南德斯和厄瓜多尔总统拉索赴华参加冬奥会开幕式。 2022 年 7月,中国外交部拉美司司长蔡伟对阿根廷、智利、哥伦比亚、古巴、墨西哥、秘鲁和乌拉圭等国进行工作访问。2023 年4 月 12 ~ 15 日,巴西总统卢拉率领庞大团队访问中国,并与习主席亲切会晤。
Under the leadership of high-level leaders, Latin American countries are increasingly enthusiastic about participating in the construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative. In early 2022, Nicaragua and Argentina signed memorandums of understanding on cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative with China in quick succession, bringing the number of Latin American countries that had joined the initiative to 21. Among these, Suriname, Cuba, and other countries have signed specific plans with China and identified key cooperation projects.
在高层引领下,拉美国家参与“ 一带一路” 建设的热情日益高涨。 2022 年初,尼加拉瓜、阿根廷先后与中国签署“ 一带一路” 合作谅解备忘录,使加入该倡议的拉美国家达到21 个。 其中,苏里南、古巴等国已与中国签署了具体规划、明确重点合作项目。
(2) Economic and trade cooperation continued to strengthen even against the global trend and its structure continued to improve. China has been Latin America’s second-largest trading partner for many years. Due to the impact of the pandemic, China–Latin America trade volume decreased slightly year-on-year in 2020, but Latin America’s exports to China bucked the trend and grew by 0.1%.1 In the same year, total exports of Mexico, Latin America’s second-largest economy, fell by 9.5%, but its exports to China reached U.S. $7.891 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%.2 China–Latin America trade exceeded U.S. $450 billion in 2021, and further grew to a historical high of U.S. $485.8 billion in 2022.3 In February 2023, China and Ecuador formally completed negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement, and China is currently actively promoting free trade agreement negotiations with Nicaragua. At the same time, the development of China–Latin America trade structure is accelerating in a balanced manner. Latin America’s exports to China have shifted from focusing on primary products to greater diversification, with exports of high-tech products such as biomedicine and electronic products, as well as agricultural products such as fruits, flowers, tobacco, alcohol, coffee, quinoa, and alpaca wool continuing to expand.
( 二) 经贸合作逆势走强,结构持续优化。 中国持续多年成为拉美地区第二大贸易伙伴国。 受疫情冲击,2020 年中拉贸易额同比略有下降,但拉美对华出口逆势增长 0.1%。同年拉美第二大经济体墨西哥出口总额下跌 9.5%,但对华出口达 78.91 亿美元,同比增长 10.9%。2021 年中拉贸易突破 4500 亿美元,2022 年则进一步增长至 4858 亿美元的历史高点。2023 年2 月,中国与厄瓜多尔正式完成双边自由贸易协定谈判,目前正与尼加拉瓜积极推进自贸协定谈判。 同时,中拉贸易结构加快均衡发展。 拉美对华出口从初级产品为主向多样化方向转变, 生物医药、电子产品等高科技产品以及水果、花卉、烟酒、咖啡、藜麦、羊驼绒等农产品出口不断扩大。
China’s investment in Latin America is trending upward. First, China’s investment in Latin America continues to increase. As of July 2021, China’s direct investment stock in Latin America exceeded U.S. $450 billion, accounting for 19% of China’s outbound foreign investment stock.4 From January to May 2021, China’s direct investment in Latin America was U.S. $10.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%.5 Second, China is investing in more places in Latin America. As of the end of 2020, there were more than 3,000 Chinese-funded enterprises in Latin America, mainly distributed in the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, and Venezuela, with a regional coverage rate of 65.3%.6 Third, investment fields are becoming increasingly diversified. Currently, China’s investment in Latin America is shifting from energy and mineral mining to the promotion of international production capacity cooperation in diversified production fields, and especially extending to fields such as clean energy, information and communications, the Internet, high-end manufacturing, and medical care. According to statistics from China’s Ministry of Commerce, as of the end of 2020, the top five industries by share of China’s investment stock in Latin America were information technology services, leasing and business services, wholesale and retail, manufacturing, and scientific research and technical services. Take Mexico as an example. Currently, 40% of Chinese investment in the country is concentrated in manufacturing, 11.3% in telecommunications, 10.3% in finance, and only 9.3% in mining.7 Fourth, Chinese investment has created new employment opportunities in Latin America. As of 2021, China has carried out a total of 192 infrastructure projects in Latin America and the Caribbean with a total investment of U.S. $98.4 billion, providing more than 673,000 local jobs.8 At the same time, in recent years, Didi has launched passenger and freight transportation services in Latin America, creating many local employment opportunities. According to statistics, Didi’s five investment projects in Latin America created 162,600 jobs between 2018 and 2020, accounting for 28.74% of the total jobs created by Chinese investment in Latin America.9
中国对拉美投资呈现积极走向。 首先,中国对拉美投资量不断增多。 截至 2021 年 7 月,中国在拉美直接投资存量已超过 4500 亿美元,占中国对外投资存量的 19%。2021 年 1—5 月中国对拉直接投资 103.8 亿美元,同比增长 40%。其次,中国在拉投资目的国不断增多。 截至 2020 年底,在拉中资企业已超过3000 家, 主要分布在英属维尔京群岛、开曼群岛、巴西、墨西哥、秘鲁、智利、厄瓜多尔、阿根廷、委内瑞拉等,地区覆盖率达到65.3%。第三,投资领域日益多元化。 目前,中国对拉投资正由能矿开采转向促进多元化生产的国际产能合作,尤其向清洁能源、信息通信、互联网、高端制造、医疗等多领域延伸。 据中国商务部统计,截至2020 年末,占中国对拉投资存量前五位的行业是信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、批发和零售业、制造业、科学研究和技术服务业。以墨西哥为例,目前该国40%的中国投资集中在制造业,电信业投资占 11.3%,金融业投资占 10.3%,而矿业投资仅占9.3%。第四,中国投资为拉美增加了就业机会。 截至 2021 年,中国在拉美和加勒比地区累计实施了192 项基建项目,总投资金额 984 亿美元,为当地提供了超 67. 3 万个就业岗位。同时, 近年来,滴滴在拉美开展客货运输服务,为当地创造了许多就业机会。 据统计,2018—2020 年滴滴在拉美地区的5 项投资创造了 16.26 万个就业岗位,占中国投资在拉美创造就业总量的28.74%。
(3) Infrastructure connectivity continues to advance, promoting sustainable development. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) pointed out that infrastructure is a key engine for promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and Latin America needs to build better infrastructure to promote changes to its economic structure.10 In recent years, China has continuously accelerated its infrastructure cooperation with Latin America, playing an important role in promoting regional transportation, energy, and informatization construction. First, China has deepened cooperation in transportation infrastructure construction. Complete transportation infrastructure is crucial for Latin American countries seeking to integrate into the global value chain.11 In recent years, Chinese companies have increased their investment in Latin American transportation infrastructure and have participated in important projects such as the Port of Chancay in Peru, the reconstruction of the Belgrano Railway in Argentina, the Tren Maya in Mexico, the Oyon-Ambo Highway in Peru, and the Bogota Metro in Colombia. At the beginning of the pandemic, some projects were temporarily suspended due to social control and other reasons. However, after the pandemic was brought under control to a certain extent, many projects resumed construction and made progress. China–Argentina railway cooperation continues to advance. In early 2022, the two sides signed a number of agreements, including for the modernization of the Belgrano Norte line.12 In 2020, a consortium consisting of China Communications Construction Company and a Portuguese company won the bidding for the first section of the Tren Maya project in Mexico. Construction on the project is accelerating, and the companies hope to begin operations on this section of the railway by the end of 2023.13 In 2021, Chinese companies signed new contracts worth U.S. $19.98 billion in Latin America and achieved a turnover of U.S. $7.97 billion. As of the end of 2021, Chinese companies had signed a total of U.S. $237.15 billion in contracting engineering contracts in the region and achieved a turnover of U.S. $152.4 billion.14
( 三) 设施联通不断推进,促进可持续发展。 联合国拉美经委会指出,基础设施是促进包容性和可持续经济增长的关键引擎,拉美地区需建立更好的基础设施,以促进经济结构变革。近年来,中国不断加快与拉美基建合作,为促进地区交通、能源、信息化建设发挥了重要作用。 一是深化交通基础设施建设合作。完善的交通基础设施对寻求融入全球价值链的拉美国家十分重要。近年来中国企业加大对拉美交通基建投资,参与了秘鲁钱凯港口、阿根廷贝尔格拉诺铁路改造、墨西哥玛雅铁路、秘鲁奥永公路、哥伦比亚波哥大地铁建设等重要项目。 疫情初期,部分项目因社会管控等原因一度停工。 但疫情得到一定控制后,许多项目恢复建设并取得进展。 中阿铁路合作持续推进,2022 年初双方签署了包括贝尔格拉诺铁路北线现代化改造在内的多份协议。2020 年,中国交通建设公司与葡萄牙公司组成的联合体获得墨西哥玛雅铁路一号标段项目,目前正加速推进施工,争取 2023 年底该段铁路投入使用。2021 年中国企业在拉美新签合同额199.8 亿美元,完成营业额 79.7 亿美元。 截至2021 年底,中企在该地区累计签订承包工程合同额2371.5 亿美元,完成营业额1524 亿美元。
Second, China has increased cooperation in clean energy development and power grid construction. In recent years, Chinese companies have increased their participation in clean energy projects in Latin America, such as solar and wind power projects. In September 2020, the Cauchari Solar Plant project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, in which Shanghai Electric Power Construction participated in the construction, was put into commercial operation. Xinjiang Jinfeng Technology has long cooperated with Chile and signed its fourth wind power project in 2021. In 2022, the Chinese company Ming Yang Smart Energy started construction of an offshore wind power project in Brazil.15 At the same time, Huawei leverages its advanced smart photovoltaic and energy storage technologies to provide applications for power stations and off-grid communities in Latin American countries. Clean energy projects such as the solar power plant in Jujuy Province, Argentina, the rooftop photovoltaic power station at the Santiago International Airport in Chile, and the 4MWh energy storage project in Escuintla, Guatemala all use Huawei technology.16
二是加大清洁能源开发和电网建设合作。 近年来,中国企业加大参与拉美太阳能、风能等清洁能源项目。 2020 年9 月,上海电建参与建设的阿根廷胡胡伊省高查瑞光伏电站项目投入商业运营。 新疆金凤科技长期与智利开展合作,2021 年已签署第四个风电项目。 2022 年,中企明阳智能在巴西启动海上风电项目建设。同时,华为凭借先进的智能光伏和储能技术,为拉美国家电站和离网社区提供应用。 阿根廷胡胡伊省太阳能电站、智利首都机场屋顶光伏、危地马拉埃斯库因特拉 4MWh 储能等清洁能源项目都运用了华为技术。
Third, China has continued to strengthen digital infrastructure cooperation. The technological advantages of Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE in the 5G and the Internet fields have created new opportunities for the construction of the China–Latin America “Digital Silk Road.” In recent years, Huawei Cloud has provided stable and reliable cloud services to Latin America, assisting in the digital transformation of fields such as retail, logistics, education, finance, and medicine in the region. Following on its business operations in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, Huawei Cloud started service cooperation in Argentina and Peru in 2020, making it one of the cloud service providers with the richest node resources in Latin America.17 Alicia Bárcena, former executive secretary of ECLAC, said that “the Belt and Road Initiative has become a model for cooperation between China and Latin America to enhance connectivity.”18
三是持续加强数字基础设施合作。 华为、中兴等中国企业在5G 和互联网领域的技术领先优势为中拉 “ 数字丝绸之路” 建设创造了新机遇。 近年来,华为云为拉美提供稳定可靠的云服务,助力拉美零售、物流、教育、金融、医疗等领域数字化转型。 继在智利、巴西、墨西哥开展业务后,2020 年华为云在阿根廷和秘鲁开启服务合作,成为在拉美节点资源最丰富的云服务提供商之一。联合国拉美经委会前执行秘书阿莉西亚·巴尔塞纳称“‘ 一带一路’ 已成为中拉提升互联互通能力的合作范本”。
(4) China and Latin America carried out anti-pandemic cooperation and built a “Health Silk Road.” After the outbreak of the pandemic, China and Latin America helped each other. At the beginning of the pandemic, Latin American countries generously donated medical supplies to China. After the pandemic spread across the world, China provided a large amount of vaccines and medical supplies to Latin America, and sent medical teams to Venezuela and other countries to provide assistance, which was well received by the people of Latin America. Former Chilean President Piñera, Peruvian President Castillo, and other Latin American heads of state personally received shipments of Chinese vaccines. Serrana, a city in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, joined the China–Brazil vaccine cooperation trial and vaccinated its citizens with the Sinovac vaccine. Data from May 2021 showed that the vaccine reduced the hospitalization rate and mortality rate of infected people by 86% and 95% respectively.19 China also concluded agreements on local vaccine production with Mexico and other countries to help Latin American countries speed up vaccination.20 Alicia Bárcena, executive secretary of ECLAC, said that China’s medical assistance to Latin America provided important support for the implementation of the regional health cooperation plan adopted at the 6th CELAC Summit in 2020.21
( 四) 开展抗疫合作,打造“ 健康丝绸之路”。 疫情暴发后,中拉守望相助。 疫情初期拉美国家向中国慷慨捐赠医疗物资。 疫情蔓延至全球后,中国向拉美提供大量疫苗及医疗物资,并派遣医疗队赴委内瑞拉等国提供援助,获得拉美民众好评。 智利前总统皮涅拉、秘鲁总统卡斯蒂略等拉美国家元首亲自接种中国疫苗。 巴西圣保罗州城市塞拉纳加入中巴疫苗合作试验,为该市市民接种科兴疫苗,2021 年 5 月数据显示疫苗使感染者住院率和死亡率分别降低了 86% 和 95%。 中国还与墨西哥等国达成疫苗本地化生产协议,帮助拉美国家加快疫苗接种。联合国拉美经委会执行秘书长阿利西亚·巴尔塞纳表示,中国对拉医疗援助为2020 年第六届拉共体峰会通过的地区医疗卫生合作计划的实施提供了重要支持。
(5) People-to-people exchanges continue to strengthen, consolidating a foundation for cooperation. People-to-people connectivity provides a solid public opinion basis and social foundation for advancing the construction of the “Belt and Road”. The Chinese people’s understanding of Latin America is deepening day by day. The popularity of the Spanish language in China continues to rise. As of May 2022, there are 99 colleges and universities offering Spanish majors.22 In addition to classic writers such as Márquez and Borges, translations of other best-selling Latin American writers such as Brazilian writer Paulo Coelho, Chilean writer Bolaño, and Uruguayan writer Galeano have become very popular in China.23 Latin American people’s understanding of China is also constantly improving. China Global Television Network has opened up publicity channels on new media such as Facebook. The number of Latin American students studying in China continues to increase. At the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum, China pledged to provide 5,000 scholarships and 3,000 training opportunities to Latin America from 2022 to 2024.24
( 五) 民间交流不断加强,巩固合作根基。 民心相通为推进“ 一带一路” 建设提供坚实民意基础和社会根基。 中国民众对拉美的了解日益加深。 国内西班牙语热持续升温,截至 2022 年 5 月,开设西班牙语专业的高校已经达到99 所。除马尔克斯、博尔赫斯等经典作家外,巴西作家保罗·柯艾略、智利作家博拉尼奥、乌拉圭作家加莱亚诺等拉美畅销作家成为中国新的译介热点。拉美民众对华了解也不断提升。中国国际电视台在脸书等新媒体开辟了宣传渠道。拉美赴华留学生持续增加,在中拉论坛第三届部长级会议上,中方承诺2022⁃2024 年向拉美提供5000 个奖学金名额和3000 个培训名额。
II. Favorable factors for promoting China–Latin America cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative
二、 推进中拉“ 一带一路” 合作的有利因素
(1) There is growing political will in China and Latin America to advance cooperation.
( 一) 中拉推进合作的政治意愿不断加强
China regards Latin America as an important force and diplomatic foundation in a multipolar world, and has always planned the blueprint of its relations with Latin American countries from a strategic and long-term perspective. Since the 18th Party Congress, Latin America’s status in China’s diplomacy has continued to rise. Leaders of China and Latin American countries have established a high degree of mutual political trust and jointly established a new positioning for the China–Latin America comprehensive cooperative partnership. China has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with many countries including Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and Argentina. China also established the China–CELAC Forum with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), the largest integration organization in Latin America, and successfully held the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum at the end of 2021.
中国视拉美为多极化世界中的重要力量和外交基础之一,始终从战略高度和长远角度谋划与拉美国家的关系蓝图。 党的十八大以来,拉美在中国外交中的地位不断上升,中国和拉美国家领导人建立了高度的政治互信,共同确立了中拉全面合作伙伴关系的新定位。 中国与巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥、委内瑞拉、阿根廷等多国建立了全面战略伙伴关系,与拉美最大的一体化组织拉美暨加勒比国家共同体成立了中拉论坛,并于 2021 年底成功召开中拉论坛第三届部长级会议。
At present, the values of the world’s major powers are becoming increasingly antagonistic and the global political and economic system is trending towards division. However, the internal driving force of globalization still exists, a large number of international cooperation mechanisms are still in operation, most countries still need to conduct exchanges based on rules, and there is still room for cooperation at the level of mechanisms, norms, and standards.25 China and Latin American countries share a consensus on promoting multilateralism, free trade, and globalization. China adheres to the path of peaceful development, focuses on building a community of common destiny for humanity and jointly building the “Belt and Road,” and proposed the Global Development Initiative. These actions have received positive responses from many countries, including Latin American countries. At the third ministerial meeting of the China–CELAC Forum, one after another, foreign ministers of the CELAC member states expressed that the “Belt and Road” initiative could become an important means of deepening China–Latin America cooperation.26
当前世界大国价值观日益对立、全球性政治经济体系走向分裂,但全球化的内在驱动力尚存,大量国际间合作机制仍在运转,多数国家仍需要以规则为基础开展交流, 机制性、规范标准层面的合作仍有可为。中国与拉美国家在推动多边主义、自由贸易和全球化上拥有共识。 中国坚持走和平发展道路,着眼构建人类命运共同体和共建“ 一带一路”,提出全球发展倡议,得到了包括拉美国家在内的广大国家的积极响应。 在中拉论坛第三届部长级会议上,拉共体成员国外长纷纷表示“ 一带一路” 可成为深化中拉合作的重要途径。
Faced with complex and fierce competition among major powers, most Latin American countries adhere to foreign policies of diversification. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, most Latin American countries expressed their neutral stance and refused to follow the United States in condemning or sanctioning Russia. Moreover, the Biden administration’s continued interference in the internal affairs of Latin American countries has also caused dissatisfaction among many countries. In June 2022, the United States refused to invite the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua to attend the 9th Summit of the Americas, resulting in the absence of the heads of state of ten Latin American countries from the summit. In addition, the United States adheres to the idea of “putting its own interests first” and has been “all talk and no action” with respect to Latin American countries, which has made the latter quite disillusioned. At the beginning of 2021, Latin America sought help from many parties due to the severe pandemic. China, Russia, and other countries provided timely assistance to Latin America, while the United States continued to stockpile vaccines in large quantities. It was not until June 2021 that the United States began to provide vaccines to Latin America, and this was due to concerns that other countries would meddle in its “backyard.” This selfish behavior of the United States has caused dissatisfaction among Latin American countries.27 The above factors objectively push Latin American countries to continue to value cooperation with countries outside the region, such as China and Russia.
面对复杂激烈的大国博弈,大多数拉美国家坚持多元化外交政策。 乌克兰危机爆发后,拉美多数国家表达了本国中立立场,拒绝追随美国谴责或制裁俄罗斯。 而且拜登政府继续干涉拉美国家内政的做法亦引起多国不满。 2022 年 6 月,美国拒绝邀请古巴、委内瑞拉和尼加拉瓜领导人出席第九届美洲峰会,导致拉美十国元首缺席峰会。 此外,美国秉持“ 本国利益优先” 思想,对拉美国家“ 口惠而实不至”, 令后者颇为失望。 2021 年初,拉美因疫情严重向多方求援,中、俄等国向拉美雪中送炭, 而美国则继续大量囤积疫苗。 直到2021 年 6 月,美国因担忧“ 后院” 被他国染指才开始向拉美提供疫苗。 美国这种自私的做法引起了拉美国家的不满。上述因素均客观上促使拉美国家依然看重与中国、俄罗斯等域外国家的合作。
(2) China needs to strengthen cooperation with Latin America to achieve the new development pattern of “dual circulation.”
( 二) 中国为实现“ 双循环” 新发展格局需加强对拉合作
Since the reform and opening up, China’s interactions with the world have become increasingly frequent. After the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China proposed to accelerate the construction of a new pattern of development that takes domestic great circulation as the mainstay and in which domestic and international dual circulation are mutually reinforcing. Here, domestic circulation and international circulation are in a dialectical unity, promoting and complementing each other.28 In 2022, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the Report on the Work of the Government that we must continue to expand high-level opening up to the outside world, promote the steady development of foreign trade and foreign investment, and use high-level opening up to promote in-depth reform and advance high-quality development.29 Against the backdrop of intensified Sino-U.S. competition and increasing downward pressure on China’s economy, the “Belt and Road” initiative is an important tool by which China can achieve “dual circulation” and expand economic and trade cooperation with the rest of the world. First, we must maintain supply chain security. Under the current complex international situation, the security and resilience of global supply chains face great challenges.30 Many Latin American countries are important global exporters of bulk commodities as well as important sources of raw materials and processed products such as soybeans, iron ore, and copper ore for China. China can strengthen cooperation with Latin America in areas such as agriculture, mining, and energy to ensure the security of its own and global supply chains. Second, we must consolidate trade cooperation. China–Latin America trade still has great potential for development. In 2021, China’s foreign trade in goods reached a record high of U.S. $6.05 trillion, but the volume of China–Latin America trade was only U.S. $450 billion, accounting for only 7.4%.31 Further advancing China–Latin America economic and trade relations is crucial if China is to optimize its international market layout. Third, we must strengthen production chain cooperation. Strengthening production capacity cooperation with Latin American countries can create more external opportunities for Chinese companies, provide greater space for China to deploy its production chains on a global scale, and help maintain the security of the production chains in China and Latin America. China can also strengthen cooperation with Latin American countries in areas such as renewable energy, e-commerce, cross-border logistics, and finance, and promote the transformation and upgrade of its own industries through high-level cooperation.
自改革开放以来,中国和世界的互动日益频繁。 2020 年全球新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,中国提出加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。 其中国内循环和国际循环是辩证统一关系,相互促进、相得益彰。2022 年, 李克强总理在《中国政府工作报告》中指出,要继续扩大高水平对外开放,推动外贸外资平稳发展,以高水平开放促进深层次改革、推动高质量发展。在中美博弈加剧和中国经济下行压力增大的背景下,“ 一带一路” 倡议是我国实现“ 双循环” 和拓展对外经贸合作的重要抓手。一是维护供应链安全。 在当前复杂的国际局势下,全球供应链的安全与韧性遭遇极大挑战。而拉美多国是全球重要大宗商品出口国,也是中国进口大豆、铁矿、铜矿等原材料和加工制成品的重要来源地。 中国可与拉美加强农业、矿产、能源等领域合作,保障自身及全球供应链安全。 二是巩固贸易链合作。 中拉贸易仍有较大发展潜力。 2021 年,中国对外货物贸易额达到6.05 万亿美元的历史最高记录,但中拉贸易额为 4500 亿美元,仅占 7. 4%。进一步推进中拉经贸关系,对于中国优化国际市场布局至关重要。 三是加强产业链合作。 加强与拉美国家的产能合作能够为中国企业创造更多外部机遇,为中国在全球布局产业链提供更大空间,有助于维护中国和拉美地区产业链安全。 中国还可与拉美国家在可再生能源、电子商务、跨境物流、金融等领域加强合作,以高水平合作促进自身产业转型升级。
(3) Latin American countries hope to strengthen cooperation with China to promote sustainable development. Currently, unbalanced development remains a severe problem in Latin America, and achieving the goal of sustainable development is an important task facing the region. Using the “Belt and Road” as a lever to promote China–Latin America cooperation and advocating an “open, inclusive, interconnected, and sustainable” world economy will help Latin American countries promote sustainable development. First, cooperation can help Latin America stabilize its foreign trade. Most Latin American countries have export-oriented economies. In 2020, Latin America experienced its worst recession since 1900, with the region’s economy shrinking by 6.8%. Against the backdrop of the ongoing pandemic, the strong growth of China–Latin America trade has become a “stabilizer” for Latin America’s foreign trade. Latin American countries are still facing problems such as inflation and slow labor market recovery. The region’s economic growth rate in 2022 was only 3.7%, and it is expected to decline to 1.3% in 2023.32 Promoting trade between China and Latin America will assist in the economic recovery of Latin American countries.
(三) 拉美国家希望加强对华合作以推动可持续发展。 当前,拉美地区发展不平衡问题依然严峻,实现可持续发展目标是该地区面临的重要任务。 以“ 一带一路”为抓手推进中拉合作,倡导“ 开放、包容、联动、可持续”的世界经济,有助于拉美国家推进可持续发展。一是有助于拉美稳定外贸。 大部分拉美国家为外向型经济体。 2020 年拉美经历了 1900 年以来最严重的衰退,经济萎缩达6.8%。 在疫情持续背景下,走势强劲的中拉贸易成为拉美外贸的“稳定器”。 当前拉美国家依然面临通胀和劳动力市场恢复缓慢等问题,2022 年经济增长率仅达3.7%,预计2023 年将下滑至1.3%。促进中拉贸易往来有助于拉美国家经济复苏。
Second, cooperation can help promote infrastructure construction in Latin America. According to statistics from the Inter-American Development Bank, if Latin America wants to achieve its sustainable development goals by 2030, it needs to invest $2.22 trillion in drinking water, sanitation, transportation, and telecommunications, and the annual investment must reach 3.12% of the region’s GDP.33 However, most Latin American countries are facing financial constraints and urgently need to attract more foreign investment. In terms of power development and grid construction, as of 2018, only Barbados and Uruguay have basically achieved full electricity coverage, while many countries including Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela have not yet achieved universal access to electricity.34 The demand for electricity in Latin America and the Caribbean will double between 2019 and 2040.35 This will place higher demands on Latin America’s power generation capacity and grid coverage. In terms of transportation infrastructure, Latin America has long relied on road and air transport as the main means of transportation, while railways, subways, and other facilities have been relatively underdeveloped. According to statistics from the Inter-American Development Bank in 2018, Latin America’s logistics infrastructure score is only higher than South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.36 The logistics levels of Peru, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, El Salvador, and other countries rank in the middle and lower portions of the list of 160 countries.37 In terms of drinking water and sanitation facilities, less than 80% of urban households in countries such as Mexico, Bolivia, and Jamaica have access to tap water, and the proportion in rural areas is even lower.38 Only in certain countries, including Chile, Colombia, and Peru does the urban sewer system coverage rate exceed 80%, while in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and other countries the rural sewer coverage rate is almost zero.39 In addition, as the Fourth Industrial Revolution deepens, the need for developing countries to advance their digitalization construction is becoming increasingly urgent. China can leverage its own advantages to carry out cooperation with Latin American countries in digitalization and promote Latin America’s digital transformation in areas such as transportation, electricity, education, and artificial intelligence (AI).
二是可助推拉美基础设施建设。 据美洲开发银行统计,拉美地区要2030 年实现可持续发展目标,需在饮用水、卫生、交通和电信领域投资2.22 万亿美元,每年投入的资金需达地区生产总值的 3.12%。而拉美多数国家面临财政紧缺状况,急需吸引更多外资。在电力开发和电网建设方面,截至 2018 年仅有巴巴多斯和乌拉圭基本实现电力全覆盖,墨西哥、阿根廷、委内瑞拉等多国尚未实现全民供电。而 2019— 2040 年拉美和加勒比地区对电力的需求将翻倍。这将对拉美发电能力和电网覆盖率提出更高要求。在交通基础设施方面,拉美地区长期以公路和空运为主要运输途径,铁路、地铁等设施发展相对落后。 据 2018 年美洲开发银行统计,拉美物流基础设施评分仅高于南亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲地区。秘鲁、乌拉圭、多米尼加共和国、委内瑞拉、萨尔瓦多等多国物流水平在全球160 个国家中排名居于中下游水平。在饮用水和卫生设施方面,墨西哥、玻利维亚、牙买加等国城市自来水入户比例不足80%,在农村地区的比例则更低。仅智利、哥伦比亚、秘鲁等国城市下水道系统覆盖率超过80%,尼加拉瓜、萨尔瓦多等国农村下水道覆盖率几乎为 0。此外,随着第四次工业革命深入展开,广大发展中国家推进数字化建设的需求日益强烈。 中国可借助自身优势,与拉美国家开展数字化合作,推动拉美在交通、电力、教育、人工智能等领域的数字化转型。
Third, cooperation can promote regional integration. Integration in Latin America has been slow, and it is one of the regions with the lowest proportion of intra-regional trade in the world. In Latin America, intra-regional trade accounts for 20% of the region’s total trade, far lower than in the European Union (60%) and East Asia (50%).40 Infrastructure integration is a necessary condition for the promotion of production integration. ECLAC continues to call on Latin America to increase its level of integration in order to cope with external risks.41 Under the “Belt and Road” initiative, Latin American countries can promote regional integration through infrastructure construction and enhance the level of trade and overall competitiveness within the region.
三是促进地区一体化。 拉美地区一体化进展缓慢,是世界上区域内贸易比例最低的地区之一,区域内贸易占其贸易总额的比例为 20%, 远远低于欧盟(60%) 和东亚地区( 50%)。而基础设施一体化是促进生产一体化的必要条件。 拉美经委会持续呼吁拉美提高一体化水平以应对外部风险。在“ 一带一路” 倡议下,拉美国家可通过基础设施建设促进地区一体化发展,提升区域内的贸易水平和整体竞争力。
III. Challenges facing China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative
三、 中拉“ 一带一路” 合作面临的挑战
The current international and regional situation is complex and changeable. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to ferment, economic globalization has encountered headwinds, China–U.S. competition in Latin America has intensified, and unstable factors still exist in some Latin American countries. In this context, China–Latin America “Belt and Road” cooperation faces many risks and challenges.
当前国际和地区局势复杂多变,俄乌冲突持续发酵,经济全球化遭遇逆流,中美在拉美地区博弈加剧,部分拉美国家不稳定因素犹存,中拉“ 一带一路” 合作面临诸多风险和挑战。
(1) Political risks in Latin America cannot be ignored.
( 一) 拉美地区政治风险不容忽视
The political ecosystem of Latin America has always been characterized by a cyclical pattern of power alternation between left and right. However, in recent years, the region’s political arena has been chaotic, the left-vs-right game has intensified, and domestic and foreign policies face certain uncertainties. Especially after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Latin America has fallen into a crisis of political infighting, economic recession, and social imbalance. The outside world believes that Latin America is entering “another lost decade.” The Latin American left has continued to rise recently, but with increasing internal and external factors of instability, the newly-elected left-wing parties in Latin America are facing a difficult transformation, and right-wing forces are waiting for an opportunity to make a comeback. Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition “Citizen’s Unity” is facing a crisis. Political differences between President Alberto Fernandez and Vice President Cristina and the latter’s recent investigation for corruption have caused the government’s reputation to plummet. In May 2022, public satisfaction with the government had dropped to 35.4% from 60.8% in November 2020.42 The dispute between the Peruvian government and the parliament continues to intensify, and President Pedro Castillo was impeached and removed from office by Congress. Chilean President Gabriel Boric’s slow progress in reforms, coupled with continued domestic inflation and the ongoing fermentation of the Mapuche issue in the south, have intensified public dissatisfaction with the government.43 Governments are busy consolidating their ruling positions and promoting domestic reforms, and their energy for external cooperation is inevitably affected. The left-right game in Latin America continues to intensify, and changes in national regimes are likely to lead to a lack of continuity in their foreign policies. Overall, the promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative in Latin America still confronts a relatively complex political environment, and businesses operating in Latin America face certain challenges.
拉美地区政治生态历来具有左右轮流执政的周期性特点。 但近年来,该地区政坛乱象丛生,左右博弈加剧,各国内外政策面临一定不确定性。 尤其是在 2020 年新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,拉美陷入政治内斗、经济衰退、社会失衡的危机。 外界认为拉美正进入“ 又一个失去的十年”。 近期拉美左翼持续崛起,但在内外不稳定因素增多的情况下,新上台的拉美左翼政党面临艰难转型,右翼力量伺机东山再起。 阿根廷左翼执政联盟“ 全民阵线” 执政危机四伏,总统阿尔韦托·费尔南德斯与副总统克里斯蒂娜政见不和,近期后者又因涉腐被调查,导致政府口碑直线下滑。 2022 年 5月民众对政府满意度已从2020 年11 月的60.8%下跌至35.4%。秘鲁府院之争持续白热化,佩德罗·卡斯蒂略总统遭国会弹劾下台。 智利总统加夫列尔·博里奇改革推进缓慢,加之国内通胀持续、南部马普切人问题继续发酵,民众对政府不满加剧。各国政府忙于巩固执政地位和推进国内改革,对外合作精力难免受到牵扯。 拉美左右博弈持续加剧,国家政权更迭易造成其对外政策延续性不足。 总体看,“ 一带一路” 在拉美地区的推进仍然面临较为复杂的政治环境,在拉企业经营面临一定挑战。
(2) Economic risks continue to ferment in Latin American countries. For a long time, Latin American countries have had problems with insufficient resilience and risk resistance in their economic structures. Under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Latin America’s economic recovery has slowed down and the region faces numerous economic risks. One is the risk of disruption in food supply chains. The current global pandemic situation is becoming more uncertain. As an important source of imports of soybeans and corn for China, Latin America’s food production and transportation have been affected to a certain extent. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. sanctions on Russia have had a wide-ranging impact on global fertilizer supply, posing a major risk to Latin American soybean and corn production. The second is the debt risk. In recent years, the fiscal conditions of Latin American countries have deteriorated and the pressure of foreign debt has increased sharply. In particular, Argentina suffered a financial crisis and owed huge sums of money to the International Monetary Fund. As of the first quarter of 2022, the country’s total foreign debt had reached U.S. $274.355 billion.44 El Salvador’s public debt accounts for more than 80% of its GDP, and about $800 million in debt will mature in 2023.45 A debt crisis in Latin American countries will inevitably impact Chinese investment and project construction in the region. The third is the exchange rate risk. The economic structures of many Latin American countries are fragile, their ability to resist risks is poor, and their exchange rates are subject to significant fluctuations. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in early 2022, the global economic situation has become increasingly unstable, the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes have produced spillover effects, and Latin American countries are facing pressure from rising inflation and currency depreciation. In June 2022, the inflation rates in Venezuela and Argentina reached 14.5% and 5.3% respectively, and the annual inflation rates are expected to reach 53.5% and 36.2% respectively.46 From the end of 2021 to July 2022, the U.S. dollar appreciated significantly against the currencies of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and other countries, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chilean peso reached a record of 1:1000 for a time.47 High inflation and exchange rate fluctuations may affect Latin America’s ability to attract foreign investment and even cause some existing foreign investment to leave. The fourth is the risk of protectionism. Nationalist tendencies have intensified in Latin America. Mexican President Lopez and Peruvian President Castillo both advocate prioritizing their respective countries, and trade protectionism and some more radical nationalization policies may affect foreign cooperation. At the same time, against the backdrop of the economic downturn, some Latin American countries have launched anti-dumping investigations in order to improve their export trade or set up barriers against Chinese products and investment. The risk of trade frictions should not be underestimated.
(二) 拉美国家经济风险持续酝酿。 长期以来,拉美国家存在经济结构韧性和抗风险能力不足的问题。在俄乌冲突冲击下,拉美经济复苏放缓,并面临多重经济风险。 一是粮食供应链断裂的风险。 当前全球疫情走势不确定性增加,拉美作为我国大豆和玉米的重要进口来源地,粮食生产和运输受到一定影响。 在乌克兰危机背景下,美国对俄罗斯的制裁对全球化肥供应造成广泛影响,给拉美大豆和玉米生产带来较大风险。二是债务风险。 近年来,拉美国家财政状况恶化,外债压力陡增。 尤其是阿根廷遭遇金融危机,欠下国际货币基金组织巨额款项,截至2022 年第一季度外债总额已达 2743.55 亿美元。萨尔瓦多公共债务占国内生产总值的比例已超过80%,约8 亿美元债务将于2023年到期。一旦拉美国家发生债务危机,我国在当地的投资和工程建设将受冲击。 三是汇率风险。 拉美多国经济结构脆弱, 抗风险能力差, 汇率波动大。 2022 年初俄乌危机爆发以来, 全球经济形势不稳加剧,美联储持续加息产生外溢效应,拉美国家面临通胀攀升和货币贬值压力。 2022 年 6 月委内瑞拉和阿根廷的通胀率分别达到14.5%和5.3%,预计全年通胀率将分别达到 53. 5% 和 36. 2%。自 2021 年底至 2022 年7 月,美元兑阿根廷、智利、哥伦比亚等国货币均大幅升值,美元兑智利比索汇率一度达到 1 ∶ 1000的记录。通胀高企和汇率波动恐影响拉美吸引外资,甚至造成部分外资流失。 四是保护主义风险。 拉美地区民族主义倾向有所加剧。 墨西哥总统洛佩斯、秘鲁总统卡斯蒂略等均主张国内优先,贸易保护主义和一些较为激进的国有化政策或影响对外合作。 同时,在经济低迷背景下,部分拉美国家为改善出口贸易,或对中国产品和投资设置壁垒,发起反倾销调查,贸易摩擦风险不容低估。
(3) There are some differences in the Chinese and Latin American understandings of development. China and Latin American countries are geographically distant, with great differences in political systems and cultures, as well as differences in discourse systems and ways of thinking. Latin America was long colonized by European and North American countries, and is prone to suspicion of foreign forces and foreign capital. Due to their cultural traditions, some Latin American Indigenous peoples attach great importance to environmental protection and even say that they would forgo development if was in conflict with environmental protection. In addition, the U.S. and European media have a strong influence in Latin America, and the “China threat theory,” “colonial plunder theory,” and “debt trap theory” still find a certain audience in Latin America. Some Latin American media outlets have stated that China has not only burdened Latin American countries with huge debts by providing loans to them, but also failed to fulfill its extraterritorial obligations with regard to human rights. They have also accused Chinese companies of violating community rights, damaging the local environment, and so on.48 In recent years, social movements have emerged one after another in Latin American countries. In Ecuador and other countries, there have been many social movements in which Indigenous peoples oppose government development projects, and these have had a certain impact on Chinese companies’ projects in local areas. Finding a way to strengthen communication and seek common ground while setting aside differences on the above-mentioned issues is a major challenge facing “Belt and Road” cooperation between China and Latin America.
( 三) 中拉在发展认知上存在部分差异。 中国与拉美国家地理相距遥远,政治制度和文化差异较大,话语体系和思维方式亦存在区别。 拉美地区长期遭受欧美国家殖民,容易对外国势力和外国资本产生疑虑。 部分拉美原住民因其文化传统原因,高度重视环境保护,甚至表示宁可不发展也要保护环境。 加之美欧媒体在拉美地区有较强的影响力,“ 中国威胁论”、 “ 殖民掠夺论”、“ 债务陷阱论” 等在拉美仍有一定市场。 部分拉美媒体称,中国不仅通过向拉美国家提供贷款使后者背负巨额债务,而且未能履行其在人权方面的域外义务,还指责中国企业侵犯社区权利、破坏当地环境等等。近年来,拉美国家社会运动此起彼伏,厄瓜多尔等国多次发生原住民反对政府开发项目的社会运动,对中企在当地的项目造成一定冲击。 如何针对上述问题加强沟通、求同存异是中拉“ 一带一路” 合作面临的一大挑战。
(4) The United States has increased its interference in China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. The Trump administration has characterized China as a “competitor” and primary “adversary” of the United States. The 2017 National Security Strategy attempted to completely negate the policy of engagement with China pursued by the U.S. government in the past and proposed a China strategy that was essentially a zero-sum mentality.49 After taking office, Biden continued to view China as a strategic competitor of the United States and viewed strategic competition with China as an important means to reverse relative decline and regain U.S. global leadership. At the same time, voices from U.S. conservatives and the military calling for curbing China–Latin America cooperation continue to grow stronger. In March 2022, U.S. Southern Command Commander Laura Richardson and Senator Marco Rubio accused China of expanding its influence in Latin America and undermining regional security and stability at a U.S. Senate hearing.50 They falsely claimed that China was using loans from the Belt and Road Initiative to trap Latin American countries.51 Pushed in this direction by multiple factors, excluding China’s influence in Latin America remains one of the focuses of Biden’s Latin American policy. Although, on the surface, Biden does not appear to interfere in Latin America’s internal affairs as blatantly as Trump, the core of his anti-China exclusion policy has not changed. Latin America is increasingly becoming one of the battlefields in the strategic game between China and the United States. First, the United States sows discord between China and Latin America by smearing China. Since 2021, senior U.S. officials have never failed to mention China when visiting Latin America, hawking arguments such as the “China threat theory,” “debt trap theory,” and “resource plunder theory” to Latin American governments, and warning Latin American countries to be aware of China’s “harmful activities.” At the same time, the U.S. is also using its control over Latin American media to intensify public opinion propaganda, causing some Latin American media to fixate on topics such as China’s “threat to cybersecurity” and “violations of human rights.” At the end of March 2022, Mr. Natiello, an official of the U.S. Agency for International Development, told the Senate that the United States is stepping up investigations and reporting on illegal and unregulated fishing by Chinese fishing vessels off the coast of Ecuador.52 Second, the United States increases the intensity of “anti-Chinese exclusion” through rule-making. After taking office, Biden introduced a number of cooperation initiatives in an attempt to incorporate more countries into the cooperation mechanisms established by the United States and accelerate “decoupling” from China. At the G7 summit held in June 2021, the United States proposed the “Build Back a Better World” plan, intending to increase the binding of its own economic and trade interests with various countries and the formulation of cooperative rules so as to contain China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.53 In September of the same year, the United States took the lead in selling the plan to Latin America, sending Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Daleep Singh to lead a delegation that visited Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama and pledged to provide funding for projects in fields such as agriculture, women’s development, and digital integration in the three countries.54 After proposing the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity,” Biden announced the “Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity” plan at the 9th Summit of the Americas in June 2022. The essential goal of the plan is to lock in Latin American resources, energy, and markets, while using rules such as transparency, security, and labor standards to exclude China from the regional supply chain system, forcing the Latin American and Chinese economies to decouple, and thereby establishing a global system of rules to contain China and achieve the strategic goal of regulating China. Third, the United States uses cooperation mechanisms to exert direct pressure. The U.S. government uses existing cooperation agreements with Latin American countries to constantly force Latin American countries to choose sides between China and the United States in order to contain China–Latin America cooperation. In October 2021, China Aerospace Information Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the Chilean Civil Registry Project and planned to provide relevant system construction services for the country’s Civil Registry and Identification Service. After the news was announced, the United States immediately sent a delegation to Chile and threatened to cancel its visa-free program for Chile on the grounds of “security review,” forcing Chile to cancel its cooperation project with China Aerospace Information Technology.55 In addition, the United States has used similar means to continue to suppress China–Latin America cooperation in areas such as 5G and new energy. Amid continued interference and obstruction from the United States, China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative may be faced with more complex regional political factors.
( 四) 美国加大干涉中拉“ 一带一路” 合作。 特朗普政府将中国定性为“ 竞争对手” 和首要“ 敌手”, 2017 年版国家安全战略报告试图彻底否定过去美国政府奉行的对华接触政策,提出本质上是零和思维的对华战略。拜登上台后继续视中国为美国战略竞争对手,将与华战略竞争视作扭转其相对衰落态势、重振全球领导地位的重要手段。 同时,美国保守派和军方遏制中拉合作的声音持续走强。 2022 年3 月,美国南方司令部司令劳拉·理查德森和参议员马克·卢比奥先后在美参议院听证会上指责中国在拉美扩大影响力、冲击地区安全稳定,妄称中国通过“ 一带一路” 合作的贷款来困住拉美国家。在多重因素作用下,排挤中国在拉美的影响力仍是拜登对拉政策的重点之一。 虽然拜登表面不似特朗普般粗暴干涉拉美内政,但其排华护院的政策核心并未改变,拉美地区日益沦为中美博弈的战场之一。 一是通过抹黑中国挑拨离间中拉关系。 2021 年以来,美国高层访问拉美时言必提及中国,向拉美政府兜售“ 中国威胁论”、“ 债务陷阱论”、“资源掠夺论” 等论调,警告拉美国家注意中国的 “有害活动”。 同时,美方还利用对拉美媒体的控制力加大舆论宣传,致使部分拉美媒体渲染中国“ 危害网络安全”、“侵犯人权” 等话题。 2022 年 3 月底,美国际开发署官员纳铁略在参议院称美正加大调查和报道中国渔船在厄瓜多尔海岸非法和无管制捕捞问题。二是通过规则制定加大“排华护院” 力度。 拜登上台后出台多项合作倡议,企图将更多国家纳入美国制定的合作机制,以加速与中国“脱钩”。 在2021 年6 月召开的七国集团峰会中,美国提出“重建更好世界” 计划,欲加大与各国经贸利益捆绑和合作规则制定,以遏制中国提出的“一带一路”倡议。同年9 月,美国率先向拉美兜售该计划,派遣副国家安全顾问兼国家经济委员会副主任达利普·辛格率团访问哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和巴拿马,承诺为三国的农业部门、女性发展、数字融合等项目提供资金。继抛出“ 印太经济框架” 后, 拜登在 2022 年6 月召开的第九届美洲峰会上宣布“ 美洲经济繁荣伙伴”计划。 该计划的本质目标即锁定拉美资源、能源和市场,同时利用透明度、安全性、劳工标准等规则,将中国排除在地区供应链体系之外,迫使拉美与华经济脱钩,从而在全球建立遏制中国的规则体系,达到规制中国的战略目标。 三是运用对拉合作机制直接施压。 美国政府利用与拉美国家已有的合作协议,不断逼迫拉美国家在中美之间选边站,以牵制中拉合作。 2021 年10 月,中国航天信息股份有限公司中标智利民事登记项目,计划为该国民事登记局提供相关系统建设。 消息公布后,美国立即派遣代表团赴智利,以“ 安全审视”为理由,以取消对智免签计划为威胁,迫使智利取消与中国航天信息合作项目。此外,美国还运用类似手段在5G、新能源等领域继续对中拉合作进行打压。 在美国的持续干涉和阻挠下,中拉“ 一带一路” 合作或面临更为复杂的地区政治因素。
IV. Suggestions for promoting cooperation between China and Latin America under the Belt and Road Initiative
四、 推进中拉“一带一路”合作的相关建议
As one of the world’s largest developing regions, Latin America is of great strategic significance to China’s realization of the new development pattern of “dual circulation” and the promotion of South-South cooperation. Under the current complex international situation, the “Belt and Road” initiative can become an important platform and leverage point for China and Latin America to deepen cooperation and promote world peace and development. China should be guided by the Global Development Initiative, uphold a correct outlook on ethics and gain, steadily advance China–Latin America cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, strengthen cooperation with Latin American countries in areas such as policy communication, unimpeded trade, financial connectivity, infrastructure connectivity, and people-to-people bonds, build China–Latin America cooperation into a model for South-South cooperation, provide a good example for the sustainable development of developing countries, and play its due role in maintaining global peace and development.
拉美地区作为全球最大的发展中地区之一,对我国实现“双循环”新发展格局和推进南南合作具有重要战略意义。 在当前复杂的国际局势下,“ 一带一路” 倡议可成为中拉深化合作、促进世界和平与发展的重要平台和抓手。 中国应以全球发展倡议为指引,秉持正确的义利观,稳步推进中拉“一带一路” 合作,加强与拉美国家在政策沟通、贸易畅通、资金融通、设施连通、民心相通领域的合作,将中拉合作打造为南南合作的示范样板,为广大发展中国家可持续发展提供良好范本,也为维护全球和平与发展发挥应有的作用。
(1) Overall principles and objectives
(一) 总体原则和目标
China should adhere to the correct view of ethics and gain and the principle of mutual benefit, take South-South cooperation as the main tone, view the creation of a “China–Latin America community of common destiny” as our long-term goal, and jointly promote development and revitalization with Latin American countries. China and Latin America should be guided by the Global Development Initiative, continue to support multilateralism, commit to maintaining the rule-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core, and promote free and open trade and investment. China and Latin America should use the Belt and Road Initiative as a cooperation platform, start with bilateral cooperation, expand the stage for multilateral cooperation, strengthen the connections among the social and economic agenda of the various countries and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development through communication at all levels, promote cooperation between China and Latin America in various fields such as poverty reduction, green development, and women’s development, and play their due roles in building a global development partnership and the great goal of a community of common destiny for humanity.
中国应坚持正确的义利观和互利共赢原则,以南南合作为主基调,以构建“ 中拉命运共同体” 为长期目标,与拉美国家共同推动发展振兴。 中拉应以全球发展倡议为指引,继续支持多边主义,致力于维护以世界贸易组织为核心、以规则为基础的多边贸易体系,促进自由开放的贸易和投资。 中拉应以“一带一路” 为合作平台,从双边合作入手,开拓多边合作舞台,通过各层级沟通,加强彼此社会经济议程和联合国 2030 年可持续发展议程对接,促进中拉在减贫、绿色发展、女性发展等各领域合作,为构建全球发展伙伴关系和人类命运共同体伟大目标发挥应有作用。
(2) Continue to comprehensively promote “Five Connectivities” projects
(二) 继续全面推进“五通”工程
First, we must strengthen policy communication and consolidate the top-level design of “Belt and Road” construction. China and Latin America need to strengthen leadership by high-level leaders. China should actively strengthen high-level exchanges with Latin American countries to consolidate the political foundation for cooperation. We should send high-level officials to visit Latin America when appropriate, invite senior officials from Latin American countries to visit China for exchanges, and increase coordination around “Belt and Road” cooperation. While promoting bilateral exchanges, we can also push forward regional cooperation between China and Latin America at the regional level. We can make use of existing cooperation frameworks such as the China–CELAC Forum to promote strategic cooperation with Latin America at the regional level, intensify dialogue and consultation with regional and sub-regional organizations such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, ECLAC, the Southern Common Market, the Pacific Alliance, and the Puebla Group, and help promote the integrated development of Latin America.
第一,加强政策沟通,夯实“一带一路” 建设的顶层设计。 中拉需加强高层引领。 中方应积极加强与拉美国家高层交流,夯实合作的政治基础;适时派遣高级别官员赴拉美访问,并邀请拉美国家高层赴华交流,围绕 “一带一路” 合作加大协调。 在推进双边交往的同时,推动中拉地区层面合作。 利用中拉论坛等现有的合作框架,推动与拉美在区域层面的战略合作,加大与拉美及加勒比国家共同体、联合国拉美经委会、南方共同市场、太平洋联盟、普埃布拉集团等区域和次区域组织的对话磋商,助力拉美地区一体化发展。
Second, we must strengthen cooperation in trade chains, supply chains, and production chains and promote trade connectivity. The first thing is to upgrade some bilateral free trade agreements and trade arrangements as appropriate. China can increase imports of Latin American specialty agricultural products such as quinoa, blueberries, avocados, and nuts as well as finished products, and help promote and market Latin American agricultural products in China. We can use our technological and financial advantages to strengthen innovative cooperation with Latin America’s agricultural sectors and solve problems such as fertilizer shortages. We can strengthen the alignment of product market access rules with Latin American countries and promote the export of Chinese mobile phones and other electronic products to Latin America. The second thing is to strengthen e-commerce cooperation with Latin American countries. We can share e-commerce experience with Latin American countries, help them build digital economy platforms, give more Latin American products access to Chinese e-commerce platforms, and promote more Chinese products to enter Latin American e-commerce platforms. We can promote the facilitation of monetary payments, completely break through the geographical barriers faced by China–Latin America trade cooperation, and open up a vast market. The third thing is to strengthen cooperation in manufacturing and green production chains and achieve innovative development. Chinese companies can improve the integration of China–Latin America manufacturing industry chains by expanding investment in local manufacturing based on a thorough investigation of the operational risks in Latin American countries. They can increase investment in Latin America’s green industries and promote the development of new energy, transportation electrification, and other fields in Latin America. Through high-level cooperation in the industrial chain, China and Latin America can promote the integration of markets, technologies, and industries, which can not only help Latin American countries achieve sustainable industrialization, but also provide the driving force for the healthy development of China–Latin America economic cooperation.
第二,强化贸易链、供应链和产业链合作,促进贸易联通。 一是视情升级部分双边自贸协定和贸易安排。 中方可以加大进口藜麦、蓝莓、牛油果、坚果等拉美特色农产品及制成品,帮助拉美农产品在华推广和营销。 运用技术、资金优势与拉美农业部门加强创新合作,解决化肥短缺等问题。 加强与拉美国家产品市场准入规则对接,推动我国手机等电子产品对拉出口。二是加强与拉美国家电商合作。 与拉美国家分享电商经验,帮助其建设数字经济平台,开放更多拉美产品登陆中国的电商平台,并且推动更多中国商品进入拉美电子商务平台。 推动货币支付便利化,彻底打通中拉贸易合作面临的地理障碍,开拓广阔市场。 三是加强制造业和绿色产业链合作,实现创新发展。 中企可在充分调研拉美国家运营风险的基础上,通过扩大对当地制造业投资,完善中拉制造业产业链融合;加大对拉美绿色产业投资,促进拉美新能源、交通电气化等领域的发展。 通过产业链高水平合作,中拉可促进市场、技术、产业融合,既可助力拉美国家实现可持续工业化,又可为中拉经济合作良性发展提供源动力。
Third, we must enhance the depth of infrastructure cooperation and promote collaboration on sustainable development. The first thing is to strengthen rule-making and supervision. China should increase its guidance and supervision of enterprises with foreign operations, adhere to the spirit of the “Clean Silk Road” and the “Green Silk Road,” urge Chinese companies to respect and abide by the laws and regulations of Latin American countries, increase dialogue with trade unions and environmental protection organizations in Latin American countries, and explore responsible, low-risk, high-quality, and sustainable infrastructure cooperation plans. The second thing is to expand areas of cooperation. In accordance with the sustainable development goals of Latin American countries, we can focus on the construction needs of various countries in infrastructure fields such as transportation, energy, and water supply and create a number of landmark projects to improve the living standards of local people, while helping Latin American countries increase their integration into the global value chain. We can pay more attention to “new infrastructure construction,” strengthen network infrastructure cooperation, and promote the development of the “Digital Silk Road.” We can strengthen medical and health cooperation and jointly build a “Health Silk Road” through medical hardware facilities and R&D cooperation. The third thing is to improve project quality. We can take “sustainability” as the key direction of infrastructure construction cooperation, solve key issues such as financial support, investment environment, and risk management, create more jobs and cultivate human resources for Latin American countries, and promote the sustainable development of the Latin American economies. The fourth thing is to develop innovative cooperation models. We can strengthen communication and cooperation with Latin American companies, promote localized project operations, and promote the mutual benefit of both China and Latin America. We can learn from the experience of enterprises from Europe, the United States, and other regions to better conduct operations in Latin America and explore the joint development of the Latin American market with third-party enterprises.
第三,提升基础设施合作深度,推动可持续发展协作。 一是加大规则建设和监管力度。 中方应加大对涉外企业的引导和监管力度,坚持“廉洁丝路” 和“ 绿色丝路”精神,敦促中国企业尊重和遵守拉美国家法律法规,加大与拉美国家工会组织、环保组织对话,探索负责任、低风险、高质量、可持续的基建合作方案。 二是拓展合作领域。 根据拉美国家可持续发展目标,着眼各国在交通、能源、供水等基础设施领域的建设需求,打造一批标志性项目,以提高当地民众生活水平,同时促进拉美国家加大融入全球价值链。 加大关注“ 新型基础设施建设”,加强网络基建合作,推进“数字丝绸之路”的发展。 加强医疗卫生合作,通过医疗硬件设施和研发合作共同打造“健康丝绸之路”。 三是提高项目质量。 将“可持续” 作为基础设施建设合作的重点方向,解决好金融支撑、投资环境、风险管控等关键问题,为拉美国家创造更多就业岗位和培育人力资源,促进拉美国家经济可持续发展。 四是创新合作模式。 与拉美企业加强沟通合作,推动项目本土化运作,促进中拉互利共赢。 借鉴欧美等国企业在拉美地区经营的经验,探索与第三方企业联合开发拉美市场。
Fourth, we must strengthen financial connectivity and safeguard China–Latin America economic and trade cooperation. Financial cooperation plays an important supporting role in “Belt and Road” construction. China can consider accepting more Latin American countries into the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other financial cooperation systems as well as the China–Latin America Investment Cooperation Fund at an appropriate time. We can continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB in Latin America and increase the use of RMB settlement in trade and investment cooperation with Latin American countries to reduce the risks created by fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. We can promote the adoption of RMB investment and bond issuance rules by Latin American enterprises, create conditions for countries to participate in RMB crude oil futures and iron ore futures trading, and provide stable, reliable, efficient, and sustainable financing support for China–Latin America economic and trade cooperation.
第四,加强资金融通,保障中拉经贸合作。 金融合作在“一带一路”建设中发挥着重要支撑作用。 中方可考虑适时接纳更多拉美国家加入亚投行等金融合作体系以及中拉投资合作基金等;继续在拉美推进人民币国际化,加大在与拉美国家贸易和投资合作中采用人民币结算,以减少美元汇率波动带来的风险。 向拉美企业推介人民币投资、债券发行规则,为各国参与人民币原油期货、铁矿石期货交易创造条件,为中拉经贸合作提供稳定可靠、高效可持续的融资支持。
Fifth, we must expand areas of exchange and promote mutual understanding between the peoples of China and Latin America. China and Latin American countries should continue to promote exchanges and cooperation in the fields of low-carbon economy, rural construction, medical and health care, disaster prevention and mitigation, culture and art, and women and children’s development, advance mutual learning between China and Latin America and promote sustainable development, and at the same time, build a broad public opinion foundation for China–Latin America cooperation. We can continue to promote educational cooperation between China and Latin American countries, increase support for research in China on the Latin American region and individual countries, and at the same time, cultivate more Latin American people who understand and are friendly to China. We can strengthen international communication capabilities, select a number of outstanding works on topics such as ancient and contemporary Chinese culture, political diplomacy, economic development, and social governance, translate them, and introduce them to Latin American countries. We can combine efforts in traditional media such as television and newspapers with efforts in new media such as social networks to increase the dissemination of Chinese ideas and tell China’s stories well in Latin America.
第五,扩大交流领域,促进中拉民心相通。 中国和拉美国家应继续推动双方在低碳经济、农村建设、医疗卫生、防灾减灾、文化艺术、妇女儿童发展等领域的交流合作,推进中拉互学互鉴、促进可持续发展,同时为中拉合作构筑广泛民意基础。 继续推进中国与拉美国家的教育合作,加大支持中国的拉美区域国别研究,同时培育更多的拉美知华友华派人士。 加强国际传播能力,选择一批关于中国古代和现当代文化、政治外交、经济发展、社会治理等议题的优秀作品进行翻译并介绍到拉美国家。 结合电视、报纸等传统媒体和社交网络等新媒体,在拉美地区加大传播中国理念、讲好中国故事。