Translation Tag: sanctions
A prominent Russia scholar, Feng Shaolei, analyzes the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that it reflects deep structural changes in the international system. These changes include increasing polarization between Russia and the West and growing relevance of the Global South in international affairs. Feng suggests that following the war, what he terms an “Asian Mediterranean” or Eurasian economic sphere will emerge, attendant with Russia’s pivot to the East and what he sees as China’s strengthening position in the Asia-Pacific.
Feng Yujun, a leading scholar of China-Russia relations, outlines Russia’s evolving geopolitical posture and outlook two years into its war in Ukraine. Feng explores how Russia is adapting diplomatically and economically to war-induced isolation from West, including by expanding its relations with the Global South. Moscow’s relations with Beijing remain strong, Feng argues, although framings of the partnership as “limitless” have ceded from official Chinese discourse.
This piece from two Russia scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is a part of the 2024 version of an annual volume on international politics published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. The authors explore factors influencing the dynamics and future of the war in Ukraine two years in. They argue that political factors (such as 2024 elections in the United States and Europe, and Putin’s growing preoccupation with regime security) will shape the intensity of the war, while economic factors will influence its duration.
In this interview, Xu Poling, a Russia expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, reflects on lessons learned from recent research trips to the country. He seeks to explain Russia’s relative resilience in the face of sanctions, concluding several factors are at work – the quick imposition of strict outbound capital controls, forced sales of foreign currency to increase central bank holdings, insistence on selling gas to Europe in rubles, and de-dollarization efforts since 2014.
Lu Feng, a Peking University professor, argues a closed-loop domestic integrated circuit (IC) supply chain is urgently needed in the face of U.S. and allied technology controls. He suggests Beijing advance this goal by encouraging Chinese enterprises in the field to buy from and sell to each other – decisions that, Lu argues, will be made easier by U.S. technology controls. Lu also suggests China play to its strengths and use its expansive market as a source of leverage to influence the scope of such controls.
Song Guoyou, an expert on U.S.-China economic relations at Fudan University, evaluates Beijing’s response so far to de-risking strategies adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations. Song argues that China can limit both the scope and negative impacts of such measures by seeking to maintain stable relations with Europe and U.S. allies more generally, diversifying export markets, publicly contributing to global economic goods through promotion of the BRI and participation in RCEP, and sustaining U.S. business interest in China.
This piece from the U.S. studies program at Ministry of State Security-linked think tank China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations argues that the Ukraine war heralds the end of the post-Cold War order. The article argues the United States has been the biggest beneficiary of the war so far, leveraging the crisis to strengthen its alliance network and fight a proxy war with Russia. The authors of the report warn countries in Asia to remain vigilant to what they describe as U.S. efforts to preserve and expand its hegemony in ways that might destabilize the region.
Zhou Yu, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, suggests the U.S. will increasingly resort to financial sanctions to pursue its geopolitical goals. Frequent and large-scale deployment of sanctions, Zhou argues, will ultimately undermine their effectiveness by encouraging other states to reduce their dependence on global financial public goods controlled by the U.S., and by dampening enthusiasm for sanctions among other Western powers, which the U.S. relies on to make its actions effective.
A researcher affiliated with the People’s Bank of China examines the nature and effects of a perceived growing U.S. tendency to deploy financial sanctions toward geopolitical objectives. The article outlines an extensive set of recommendations Beijing can take to better prepare for and protect against various sanctions scenarios, including deepening China’s global economic integration, improving diplomatic and trade ties with U.S. allies and partners, and promoting reform of the international monetary order.
Zhang Bei, a senior economist at the People’s Bank of China, warns that risks to China’s financial security are increasing amid an evolving geopolitical environment. Zhang sees sanctions as a double-edged sword, with economic and reputational costs to the sanctioning country—particularly if the sanctioned country is well-integrated with the global economy and financial markets. As a result, Zhang argues that China can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential sanctions by increasing financial openness and integration, diversifying trade and investment relations, and taking a more active role in global economic and monetary governance, including through measured RMB internationalization.