In the context of the intensified competition between China and the United States, the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, and the continuous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether there is a period of strategic opportunity for China’s development has become a puzzle for many people.¹ In this regard, the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee in 2020 and the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Vision 2035 in March 2021 clearly pointed out that the current and future periods are still periods of important strategic opportunities for China’s development but that there are new developments and changes in both opportunities and challenges. This follows the notion raised by the CCP Central Committee in 2002 that “the first two decades of the 21st century, for China, is an important period of strategic opportunities that must be firmly grasped for making great achievements.” Once again, this prompts major strategic research and judgment on China’s development environment in the new era and puts forward higher requirements for China’s development and foreign exchanges in the future. Analyzing the origin, status quo, and trend of the “period of strategic opportunity” in the new era is of great practical significance for understanding the current internal and external environments facing China, and it is also a valuable guide for advancing the next round of deepening reform and comprehensive opening up.

1. The ideological traceability and policy inheritance of the “period of strategic opportunity”

Chinese Communists have always had rich experience and great practice in identifying and seizing strategic opportunities.² From accurately judging the overall situation, reversing the strategic situation, and finally winning victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the War of Liberation, seizing contradictions between the United States and the Soviet Union and achieving strategic breakthroughs in the early days of the founding of New China, and excelling at grasping and taking advantage of strategic opportunities, it has always been the key for the Chinese Communists to assess the situation and make progress in their careers at a historical juncture.

Since the end of the Cold War, the CCP Central Committee’s thinking on strategic opportunities in the domestic and foreign environments can be roughly divided into three periods.

The first is the period of a spark of insight for the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” In the early 1990s, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China’s reform, opening up, and modernization drive were at a new major historical juncture, and changes in domestic and foreign situations were elusive. Deng Xiaoping reviewed the current situation from a new historical height and made important expositions. In March 1990, Deng Xiaoping said in a conversation with a responsible comrade of the Central Committee: “There are many contradictions in the world… There are contradictions that we can take advantage of. There are favorable conditions for us. There are opportunities. The question is how we grasp them.”³ He also noted that there would be an era of peace in the world and an absence of a new world war, saying “… we must firmly grasp the center of economic construction and do not lose this opportunity… we must take advantage of the opportunity to develop China.”⁴ In December 1990, Deng Xiaoping once again put forward the idea of “making good use of opportunities to solve development problems,” saying that “the situation at home and abroad is better than we expected… if this is maintained for 50 or 60 years, socialist China will be invincible.”⁵

Deng Xiaoping’s thoughts on “opportunity” and “occasions” and accurate analysis of the actual situation at home and abroad have had a profound impact on the convening of the 14th Party Congress and the opening of a new situation of socialist modernization. In October 1992, the report of the 14th Party Congress clearly pointed out: “Now the domestic conditions are in place, the international environment is favorable, there are both challenges and opportunities, and it is a good time for us to speed up our development.”⁶ By accurately judging the international situation and the stage characteristics of China’s domestic development, the CCP Central Committee formulated correct guidelines for foreign relations and domestic development policies and has continued to promote China’s rapid economic growth in the next three decades, the rapid improvement of people’s living standards, and the rapid rise of comprehensive national strength and international status.

The second is the period of policy formation for the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” On May 31, 2002, Jiang Zemin first proposed the concept of a “period of strategic opportunity” in his speech at the Party School of the CCP Central Committee. In November of that year, the report of the 16th Party Congress officially adopted the formulation of “an important period of strategic opportunity” in a central document for the first time: “Looking at the overall situation, the first two decades of the 21st century are an important period of strategic opportunity where we can live and make a difference.”⁷ Since then, the central decision-making level has continued to use this formulation, and the emphasis on the seriousness of internal and external challenges has been continuously strengthened.⁸ The report of the 17th Party Congress in 2007 stated: “The opportunities are unprecedented, and challenges are also unprecedented, though the opportunities outweigh the challenges… We must seize and make good use of important strategic opportunities, be realistic and pragmatic, forge ahead, continue to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and accelerate socialist modernization, and complete our noble mission as entrusted by the times.”⁹ In 2010, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth CCP Central Committee further pointed out: “Based on a comprehensive assessment of the international and domestic situation, China’s development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities that can make great achievements, facing both rare historical opportunities and many foreseeable and unforeseeable risks.”¹⁰

The cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the research and judgment of the “important period of strategic opportunity” have not changed, but the emphasis on “opportunity awareness and risk awareness” has increased significantly. The report of the 18th Party Congress in 2012 emphasized: “We must accurately judge the changes in the connotation and conditions of the important period of strategic opportunity, fully grasp the opportunity, deal with the challenge calmly, win the initiative, gain the advantage, and win the future.”¹¹ The 2014 Central Economic Work Conference continued, clearly emphasizing: “The judgment that China’s development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities that can make great achievements has not changed. What has changed is the connotation and conditions of the important period of strategic opportunity.”¹² In October 2015, in the face of profound and complex changes in the international and domestic environment, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again clearly pointed out at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee: “Although the international and domestic environments have undergone profound and complex changes, our significant judgment to develop important occasions for strategic opportunity has not changed.”¹³

Entering the second decade of the 21st century, the CCP Central Committee has deeply realized that the internal and external conditions and environments faced by the “important period of strategic opportunity” have produced many influencing variables that may be unfavorable to China’s development, and China has also nurtured and accumulated a large number of new development advantages. China’s development has long faced a dialectical relationship between “crisis” and “opportunity,” “internal” and “external” coordination, “disaster” and “blessing,” and “competition” and “integration.” Such expressions appear frequently in the documents of the CCP Central Committee. It can be seen that the strategic opportunity after the “first 20 years of the 21st century” has become an important topic of the CCP Central Committee. In October 2017, the report of the 19th Party Congress pointed out: “China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, the prospects are very bright, and the challenges are also very severe.”¹⁴ In May 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again clearly pointed out in his speech when he chaired a symposium on the rise of the central region: “China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development, but the international situation it faces is increasingly complex. We must be soberly aware of the long-term and complex nature of various unfavorable factors at home and abroad and be properly prepared to deal with various difficult situations.”¹⁵ The prefix “still” before the “period of strategic opportunity” reflects the fact-seeking and calm strategic determination of the CCP Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, as well as the strategic perseverance for long-term continuation of domestic and foreign policies.

The third is the period of maintenance and extension of the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” In 2020, at the end of the “first 20 years of the 21st century,” how to “maintain and extend the period of important strategic opportunity for China’s development” will be put on the agenda.¹⁶ The communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee added a temporal adverb to this statement for the first time, clearly stating: “At present and in the future, China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, but there are new developments and changes in both opportunities and challenges.”¹⁷ In March 2021, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Vision 2035 adopted the same expression in the communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee through policy planning. This shows that in the view of the CCP Central Committee, at least until 2035, the “important period of strategic opportunity” will exist for a long time.

According to the book Questions and Answers on the Study of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the CCP Central Committee reached this basic judgment from the perspectives of both the international and domestic environments: “From the perspective of the external environment, there is an important basis for making this basic judgment… Although the international environment is increasingly complex, overall, things are still in our favor. Time and momentum are on our side.” “From the perspective of China’s development, there is a solid foundation for making this basic judgment… The solid material foundation, abundant human capital, broad market space, huge development potential, and significant institutional advantages are the firm foundation for China’s development at present and in the future important period of strategic opportunity.”¹⁸

It can be seen that from inspiration, finalization, and extension, the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity” reflect the keen observation of the internal and external current situations, the sense of anxiety about the status quo, and the forward-looking thinking since the reform and opening up. This has played a crucial role in the formulation of China’s development strategy and the formulation of expected goals.¹⁹

The understanding of the “period of strategic opportunity” is not only related to the overall situation of China’s development, but also to the success or failure and to the future and destiny of the socialist cause. It is precisely based on the accurate judgment, comprehensive grasp, and precise borrowing of the “period of strategic opportunity” that China can analyze favorable factors in the volatile, difficult, and complex international situation since the 1990s. This is how China can catch favorable trends from the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the rise of the Asia-Pacific, and the containment of the United States and other international changes and explore the development momentum that has improved the national economy and people’s livelihood and promoted rapid growth from the new generation of S&T revolution.

The problem is that in recent years, facing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth has slowed, China-U.S. conflicts have intensified, and some executive departments and local governments have gained absolute and mechanized control of “risk” and “safety.” Such factors have weakened many people’s confidence in future investment and development prospects. In December 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that China’s economic development is facing the “triple pressure” of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Of these, “weakening expectations” stems from people’s concerns about changes in the domestic and foreign environments. With the United States positioning China as its “biggest strategic competitor,” international “China threat” theories and “China responsibility” theories have emerged one after another, and the “triple pressure” of domestic economic development has increased, some people began to doubt whether the “period of strategic opportunity” still exists. Some even believe that the “important period of strategic opportunity” has ended ahead of schedule.²⁰ Therefore, to deeply understand and widely disseminate the “important period of strategic opportunity” that still exists in the third decade of the 21st century at the level of public opinion is of great guiding significance for people to rationally grasp the current domestic and international situation and to insist on deepening reform and opening up in an all-round way. Talking more about the “period of strategic opportunity” will not only help alleviate the anxiety of the public but also may play a role in raising future expectations and reminding party committees and governments at all levels, all sectors of society, and market players to seek truth from facts to objectively explore the development opportunities that exist.

2. Important strategic opportunities for China that will still exist for a long time at home and abroad

Capturing “opportunities” is an important prerequisite for resolving challenges and risks. Talking about the “period of strategic opportunity” is not meant to mislead people to ignore challenges and risks but to let people find pragmatic solutions to difficulties and challenges. Whether from the international environment or from the domestic reality, the existence of strategic opportunities is real, and of course, we must grasp them correctly: On the one hand, it is necessary to objectively clarify the strategic opportunities brought about by the external environment that is still favorable to China as a whole; on the other hand, it is necessary to fully explore important strategic opportunities that will still exist for a long time in China’s domestic development opportunities.

From the perspective of the external environment, China has at least four important strategic opportunities.

First, in the foreseeable future, the United States itself will be in a state of great political division, great economic stagnation, great social decline, and great distrust of discourse for a long time, which will objectively form a relatively favorable strategic situation for the rise of China. The U.S. policy toward China will continue to harass China’s development, but it cannot condense into an effective force to comprehensively contain China’s rise. Instead, it can force China to form a situation of unity and progress.

The two political parties in the United States are seriously divided. Although they both believe that the rise of China is a deep challenge to the United States, they have not reached a consensus on how to deal with it, how to use it, and what degree of strength is needed for containment. After Trump took office in 2017, the United States has used various means to suppress China, such as economic and trade wars, technological wars, provoking frictions with China’s neighbors, and human rights and ideological attacks, but all have failed. In 2021, the trade volume between China and the United States will reach a new high, and the surplus with the United States will expand. Most people believe that the U.S. trade war with China has failed. Since Biden took office as U.S. president, the U.S. government has also been unable to come up with an effective way to deal with and contain the rise of China. What is more worthy of attention is that the political division in the United States has led to the failure of the system and the division of society. The national values and political discourse on which the United States depends, such as democracy, freedom, and the rule of law, are under unprecedented internal doubt. Fukuyama, Ray Dalio, and other political and economic figures have predicted that the “veto politics” in the United States is rampant, and a civil war or national collapse may break out in the future.²¹ Since the second half of 2021, the U.S. inflation rate has repeatedly hit new highs in more than 40 years, exposing the illusion of the so-called “economic recovery.” In 2021, China’s economic aggregate will be about 78 percent of that of the United States, and China has become the country with the smallest gap with the United States in its status as the No. 1 economy in the past 130 years. Most institutions predict that in the next eight years or so, China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy. In the medium and long term, time is still on China’s side. ²²

Second, the division among Western countries and the worsening of internal conflicts have objectively provided a strategic space for China to break through the Western blockade and resolve the “new Cold War” trend of the West against China. The internal contradictions between the United States and Europe are fierce, and France and Germany, which seek diplomatic independence, will not allow the European Union to fully follow the United States’ policy of containing China. Although Lithuania’s “pawn”-style anti-China forces have appeared in the 17 Central and Eastern European countries, they are not enough to become a trend. The United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Canada, and others have followed suit with regard to U.S. policies. However, given the huge economic interests in China, domestic opposition to China’s policy of containing China is rising. The policies of these countries towards China are more or less “on the wall” that “appears to be in favor of the United States, but actually still engages with China.” China-UK, China-Japan, China-Australia, and China-Canada trade volume has continued to rise in recent years, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including Australia, was officially launched on New Year’s Day in 2022. These are typical examples.

Third, the regional influence of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and other emerging economies has checked, balanced, and contained the U.S. hegemony for a long time. This has created more strategic time for China to build a moderate and dexterous foreign relationship. Coupled with the promotion of the Belt and Road construction over the past nine years, China has not only made friends around the world but also expanded unprecedented external space. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out in February 2022 has turned into a tug-of-war, which has completely deteriorated the relationship between Russia and the West. The game between the United States and Russia over the post-Ukrainian crisis will be protracted; the rise of Turkey and Iran’s influence in the Middle East has also restrained the energy of the United States. The Belt and Road construction has reshaped the external opportunities for China as a rising power. Instead of falling into an international dilemma like the United States with enemies everywhere, China has many true friends like Pakistan and Serbia who stand up with China at critical moments.

More importantly, the share of developing countries in the global economy has continued to rise and will overtake developed countries around 2030. The agenda of developing countries will become the mainstream global discourse. Whether it be the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Vision 2040 for Latin America, or the call for “joint efforts to build a prosperous and united Africa on the basis of common values and common destiny,” “development” has become the greatest common divisor of national strategies.²³ Undoubtedly, there has been an unprecedented political awakening in developing countries. As for the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind advocated by China, especially during the pandemic period, China has shown great love in the export of masks, ventilators, vaccines, and other materials and international mutual assistance, such that China has grown in popularity around the world. According to the survey data of the Pew Research Center of the United States from various countries around the world, the favorability of China’s image has exceeded that of the United States on many occasions.

Fourth, China’s “curve overtaking” in the new round of the industrial revolution has enabled China to stand at the forefront of the world in the wave of the industrial revolution for the first time in history, thereby creating a strategic momentum with a “siphoning” of technology and capital. In the first three rounds of the industrial revolution, China lagged seriously behind. At present, China is basically in the same position as developed countries in many more advanced fields such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence, 5G research and development, supercomputing, nanomaterials, manned spaceflight, smart cities, and quantum science. China has ranked second in the world in scientific research funding for nine consecutive years and is expected to surpass the United States to become the first in 2022. The latest research report The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs. the U.S. in the 21st Century released by Harvard University and Cambridge University clearly pointed out: “China’s technology is rising rapidly. In some races, it has already become No. 1. In others, on current trajectories, it will overtake the United States within the next decade.”²⁴

In conclusion, in terms of strategic opportunities in the external environment, despite the growing and changing external challenges, it has to be said that in the “three superimposed phases” of the adjustment period of the power structure of the great powers, the period of technological wave-led replacement, and the period of changes to the system of global development and with the rise of groups in developing countries, cooperation, peace, and recovery are the greatest common divisors of the demands of all countries. Notably, China is still in an important period when opportunities outweigh challenges for a long time.²⁵ In this regard, we cannot be swayed by the “clamors” of Western public opinion against China and the unfriendly voices or events of some countries. The total stock of China’s overseas assets exceeds $8 trillion, and some external bumps are inevitable. Judging from the author’s long-term follow-up and foreign exchanges with nearly 100 countries in the past decade, it must be said with confidence that most of the actions and clamors of the United States against China are still “all thunder and no rain” or quixotic politician performance that cannot impede China’s long-term development.

From the perspective of the internal environment, China also has at least four important strategic opportunities.

First, the ever-increasing authority of the CCP Central Committee and the leadership of the CCP have provided China with unparalleled strategic capabilities for the introduction and implementation of China’s next major reform and opening-up policy. Since socialism with Chinese characteristics entered a new era, the process of building and modernizing China’s national governance system has accelerated, and various domestic systems have been continuously improved. Through the implementation of major policies such as targeted poverty alleviation, ecological environmental protection, anti-corruption and anti-criminalism, risk prevention and control, social governance, digital economy, rule of law, and common prosperity, the Chinese people’s support for the government and social solidarity are unmatched by any developed country. Regardless of what major reform measures it wants to push and what major things it wants to do, the Chinese government has this system advantage and leadership ability more than any other country at any time.

Second, the possibility of a huge economic scale and large room for development has been continuously stimulated, making China’s sustainable development possess strategic potential unmatched by other countries. After China became the world’s largest foreign exchange reserve country in 2006, the world’s largest manufacturing country in 2010, the world’s largest trader in goods in 2013, and the world’s largest trading country in 2018, China’s amount of foreign direct investment and foreign investment attracted for the first time in 2020 surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest consumer market. In addition, China also has the most complete and largest industrial categories and industrial system in the world and has the world’s largest number of talents with higher education or various professional skills. Even so, China’s development potential is still quite large; there are a billion people who have never been on a plane, with only about 5 percent of the population with an undergraduate education, compared to the United States, where the number is about 25 percent. As long as we continue to reform and open up, the industrial monopoly and local protections in all aspects of production, distribution, circulation, and consumption at home and abroad will be broken, and the organic renewal, shantytown renovation, and moderately advanced infrastructure construction of cities in various places have been fully launched, and a new round of growth points have been found in the development space of consumption, investment, urbanization, digital economy, and green economy.²⁶

Third, the Chinese people’s will to aspire to a better life has become more determined, giving China’s future high-quality development a strategic impetus originating from the grassroots of society. Compared with the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, today’s Chinese are more concerned with the quality of life and the material standards of individuals; compared with the early days of reform and opening up, today’s Chinese are also unwilling to endure the pollution, corruption, and injustice that rapid economic growth has brought. This gives China’s economy an endogenous impetus to transform from speed and scale to quality and benefits, such that policies issued by the State continue to promote changes in quality, efficiency, and power. With a commitment to the establishment of the “green, low-carbon and circular development economic system” mentioned in the report of the 19th Party Congress, final development results will better benefit all people as we continue to realize the people’s yearning for a better life. Compared to 1978 when China was still one of the poorest countries in the world, China is now the second largest economy in the world. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average annual social consumption of Chinese residents is about $4,600, which is only 1/4 of that of the United States. The per capita housing area in China’s cities and towns is about 40 square meters, about five times the 8.1 square meters in 1978, but still less than 2/3 of that in the United States (about 65 square meters). There are only 0.21 cars per capita in China, 1/5 of that of Americans. The urbanization rate in China is only 57 percent, a far cry from the 82 percent urbanization rate in the United States. In 2021, China’s forest coverage rate had increased from 10 percent to 23 percent, the largest increase in the world, but there is still a big gap with the world’s average forest coverage rate of 32 percent.²⁷ Fourth, the Chinese people have continuously improved their self-confidence in the path ahead in recent years and accumulated experience in constantly fighting internal and external risks, which has cultivated a large number of strategic talents for the future to calmly cope with various risks and challenges. Over the past 10 years, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese have effectively dealt with a series of deep internal contradictions such as corruption within the Party, deterioration of the ecological environment, social differentiation, targeted poverty alleviation, systemic financial risk prevention, and prevention and control of COVID-19. The Chinese have successfully resolved economic and trade wars, technological wars, border frictions, human rights, and ideological repression, as well as a series of external pressures from hegemonic forces in the United States and the West, such as those related to Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and the seas, as batch after batch of young and middle-aged cadres have been baptized with experience to improve their skills. From the perspective of the foreseeable future, the post-90s and post-00s generations who have gradually become the backbone of society have unprecedented confidence in the Communist Party of China and in taking the Chinese path.²⁸ The next generation has a higher proportion of patriotism and party love.

To sum up, the objective excavation of the internal strategic opportunity period is not about avoiding current risks, challenges, and domestic issues, but rather, it means that at present, China from top to down, from inside to out, and from near to far all contain the confidence to deal with risks, challenges, and problems as our pace of reform and opening up can be faster, and our minds can be more emancipated.

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: “Our Party relies on struggle to make history, and it must rely on struggle to win the future.”²⁹ In the face of increasing challenges and risks in the changing situation of the century, we do not need to talk of “risks” and “challenges” to change, nor do we need to be afraid of “risks” and “challenges” and thus stop moving forward.

Risks, challenges, and problems will always exist. We must always be far-sighted, be prepared for danger in times of safety, and always keep capturing, maintaining, and extending the period of strategic opportunities.

3. Thoughts on China’s path to maintain and extend the period of strategic opportunities

Analyzing the many domestic and foreign bases that still exist in the “current and future period” during the period of important strategic opportunities, it is not to shy away from in-depth research on the increasingly complex and increasingly unstable domestic and foreign environments and does not even ignore the complex external environment in which the current world economy is sluggish, globalization goes against the flow, the global pattern is turbulent, and peace is threatened. On the contrary, summarizing the practical enlightenment of the previous important period of strategic opportunities and firmly believing that the important period of strategic opportunities is still extending, we must promote the whole Party and the whole country to further unify thought, will, and action and must also further unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups in the country to win new great victories of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era in the future. Furthermore, we must always grasp the historical initiative of the development of the Party and the country in the new era and new journey and strengthen the courage and will to anchor the established goals and move forward with high spirits as this will be of great practical and far-reaching historical significance.

Throughout modern history, China has missed important strategic opportunities at least twice. In the 15th century, the era of great voyages began. The emperor of the Ming Dynasty dispatched Zheng He to the Western Ocean seven times, but he did not turn overseas development into a driving force for domestic wealth growth, ideological enlightenment, and technological revolution. In the end, the great strategic opportunity that could have been the first in China to realize the upgrading of human civilization since modern times was missed. In the second half of the 19th century, the Westernization faction in the late Qing Dynasty put forward the idea of “learning the skills of foreigners” and launched the Westernization Movement, but it failed in the battle with the conservative faction. After that, the Qing court did not think about reforms, became blindly xenophobic, and successively lost in the China-Japanese War and the Eight-Power Allied Forces’ invasion of China. They missed the opportunity again, and eventually became the target of backwardness and beatings, as the spheres of influence were carved up by foreign powers.

Judging from the course of the rise of the United States in the 20th century, the United States was able to become the victor by subtly joining the Allied Powers in the latter stages of World War I and abandoning its policy of isolationism after the attack on Pearl Harbor to become an anti-fascist leader in World War II. It has been able to take the lead in recovering from the previous international financial crises and also won the Cold War by delicately launching an arms race with the Soviet Union. The important experience of the United States, which has risen from a small country ranking in the global middle to a global hegemony that has remained the world’s largest economy for more than 130 years, is that it is good at seizing strategic opportunities and diluting risks while seizing opportunities.

The two positive and negative experiences of modern China’s “encountering risks while losing opportunities” and modern America’s “diluting risks while seizing opportunities” remind us that at the moment when the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is at its closest, it is important to both guard against risks and seize opportunities. If you only see opportunities and fail to pay attention to risks, you may be blindly optimistic and go backward for several years. If you only guard against risks and fail to seize opportunities, you may stop moving forward and miss opportunities.

The dialectical unity of risks and opportunities is an important experience of the Communist Party of China, which is still flourishing as a century-old party. Looking back on the 100-year history of the growth and success of the Communist Party of China, from the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression to the victory of the War of Liberation, from the founding of New China to the success of reform and opening up, to a large extent, the Party has been constantly preventing and defusing risks and identifying and capturing strategic opportunities. Therefore, taking history as a mirror, at least three points are worth considering in China today.

First, we must correctly guide public opinion and actively shape recovery opportunities. In the spring of 2022, China experienced repeated outbreaks of COVID-19, and the downward pressure on the economy has further increased. Many industries and sectors that have been hit by the pandemic and have encountered difficulties or even short-term shocks are facing opportunities for re-distribution and re-expansion. From a macro perspective, we must talk more about the “period of strategic opportunities” as it will encourage individuals, enterprises, and institutions to adopt moderately advanced expansion policies, such as moderately advanced infrastructure construction, moderately loose monetary and credit policies, moderately avant-garde consumption behavior, and moderately risky investment behavior. This will allow us to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth in all fields of society and bring together the forces that promote the country’s realization of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision Outline. In fact, the Two Sessions of 2022 set China’s economic growth target at 5.5 percent for 2022, which is a pragmatic move that takes into account both risks and opportunities. Regarding the risks discussed by experts, scholars, and the Big V in the media and public opinion, we need to clarify a problem, that is, as long as China maintains a medium-to-high speed development, some risks such as debt, credit, and investment can be worried about and foreseen.

In the face of profound changes in the internal and external environments of China’s development since the new era, we must firmly believe that it is an objective fact that the period of strategic opportunities still exists, and we must actively seize the period of opportunities and give correct guidance in public opinion. Specifically, party committees and governments at all levels must emphasize risk prevention and safety. At the same time, we should rationally and objectively also talk about the “period of strategic opportunities.” This is not blind optimism about the situation but targeted encouragement for the future. It will not only help loosen the details of policies, rekindle passion for development, release economic vitality, and raise social expectations but will also promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s current national undertakings. As pointed out in the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Vision Outline: “Accurately recognize changes, respond scientifically, actively seek changes, be good at nurturing opportunities in crises, open new situations in changing situations, seize opportunities, respond to challenges, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and move forward bravely.”³⁰

Second, we must be brave, excel in external struggles, and maintain our strategic focus on opening up. In recent years, the game between major powers has been fierce, and China has frequently struggled with some Western forces, especially the United States. The United States also regards China as “the only country that has both the will and the ability to reshape the international order economically, diplomatically, militarily, and technologically.”³¹ Talking more about the “period of strategic opportunities” is not only an important manifestation of rationally viewing external risks and challenges but also an important basis for adhering to strategic determination, as well as an important driving force for guiding the people to open their eyes, relax their minds, and do their own affairs well. It is an important way of thinking to seek breakthroughs from these difficulties and challenges. External struggles are not an end but a means. Whether it is in the fields of politics, diplomacy, ideology, finance, economy, trade, or discourse power, the goal of daring to fight and being good at fighting is to meet current challenges, resolve internal and external conflicts, promote internal and external cooperation, and achieve national rejuvenation.³² For the United States, the biggest external variable affecting China’s rise, we must maintain a “head-to-head” mentality. Although it is difficult for the United States to become China’s friend at present, we do not have to push it to the position of an enemy. Of course, while daring to fight externally, we must also improve the ability and flexibility to be good at fighting.

In the face of the high anxiety of existing external hegemons about China’s rise and the trend of comprehensive containment, we need to have the strategic confidence and determination to coordinate domestic and foreign countries and handle them calmly to resolve this through an all-around opening-up policy. This requires accelerating system improvement in areas such as foreign personnel exchanges, financial opening, China-foreign cooperation, attracting talents, promoting the implementation of reforms, and adopting more relatively active and relatively loose policies. Therefore, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee put forward the major strategic deployment of “accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting one another.” The more open and strong China is, the more it must maintain a posture of embracing, integrating, and leading the world as well as maintaining stability in domestic development. It can be said that no external force can stop the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Third, we must tap into the dividends of reform and innovation and explore the expansion of resources and markets around the world. At present, China is more capable than ever before of obtaining global funds, resources, talents, and information to serve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and, more than ever, has the ability to contribute wisdom and solutions to human problems. Seizing the “period of strategic opportunity” requires that we continuously tap “reform dividends” and “innovation dividends” domestically. It also requires that we allocate more resources and a larger market on a global scale to seek stronger growth vitality in terms of internationalization, digitization, greening, and quality. The foundation of China’s next round of economic growth must be based on the domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and it must also focus on the world market of 7.5 billion people. It should seize the importance of the strategic window of low-cost global resources in the post-pandemic era and the urgent need for mergers and acquisitions. In this regard, the global deployment experience of companies and institutions in Europe, the United States, and Japan is worth learning from.

To this end, it is necessary to further release social vitality and emancipate the mind, to realize deepening reform and comprehensive opening up “from local exploration and breaking through ice to system integration and comprehensive deepening, to building a mutually beneficial and win-win, diversified and balanced, safe and efficient open economic system, to continuing to strengthen China’s international economic cooperation and new competitive advantages.”³³ This is conducive to opening up a new situation for China’s reform and opening up in a new era.