论新时代的战略机遇期:源起、现状与未来
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On the Strategic Opportunity Period in the New Era: Origin, Status Quo, and Future

论新时代的战略机遇期:源起、现状与未来

Wang Wen, a distinguished scholar from Renmin University argues that while internal and particularly external risks to China’s development have undoubtedly grown, the “period of strategic opportunity” heralded formally by Jiang Zemin in 2002 endures. In Wang’s view, Chinese leadership must internalize this belief and proactively communicate it publicly, as “targeted encouragement for the future” that in turn maintains “medium-to-high growth in all fields of society.”

Emphasis added throughout text by editors.


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In the context of the intensified competition between China and the United States, the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, and the continuous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether there is a period of strategic opportunity for China’s development has become a puzzle for many people.1 In this regard, the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee in 2020 and the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Vision 2035 in March 2021 clearly pointed out that the current and future periods are still periods of important strategic opportunities for China’s development but that there are new developments and changes in both opportunities and challenges. This follows the notion raised by the CCP Central Committee in 2002 that “the first two decades of the 21st century, for China, is an important period of strategic opportunities that must be firmly grasped for making great achievements.” Once again, this prompts major strategic research and judgment on China’s development environment in the new era and puts forward higher requirements for China’s development and foreign exchanges in the future. Analyzing the origin, status quo, and trend of the “period of strategic opportunity” in the new era is of great practical significance for understanding the current internal and external environments facing China, and it is also a valuable guide for advancing the next round of deepening reform and comprehensive opening up.

在中美博弈加剧、国内经济下行压力加大以及新冠肺炎疫情持续冲击的背景下,中国发展的战略机遇期是否存在,成为许多人的困惑。 对此,2020 年党的十九届五中全会公报、2021 年 3 月《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要》都明确指出, 当前和今后一个时期,我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期,但机遇和挑战都有新的发展变化。这一表述是中共中央继 2002   年首次提出“二十一世纪头二十年,对我国来说,是一个必须紧紧抓住并且可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期”之后,再次对新时代下中国发展环境作出的重大战略研判,为未来一段时期的中国发展与对外交往工作提出了更高的要求。剖析新时代的“战略机遇期” 的源起、现状与走势,对认识当前中国面临的内外环境具有相当重要的现实意义,对推进下一轮的深化改革与全面开放也具有极高价值的指导意义。

1. The ideological traceability and policy inheritance of the “period of strategic opportunity”

一、“战略机遇期”的思想溯源与政策延承

Chinese Communists have always had rich experience and great practice in identifying and seizing strategic opportunities.2 From accurately judging the overall situation, reversing the strategic situation, and finally winning victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the War of Liberation, seizing contradictions between the United States and the Soviet Union and achieving strategic breakthroughs in the early days of the founding of New China, and excelling at grasping and taking advantage of strategic opportunities, it has always been the key for the Chinese Communists to assess the situation and make progress in their careers at a historical juncture.

中国共产党人一直有辨识与抓住战略机遇的丰富经验与伟大实践。  从抗日战争和解放战争时期准确判断全局、扭转战略态势、最终夺取全国胜利,到新中国成立初期抓住美苏矛盾取得战略突破,善于把握并利用战略机遇,始终是中国共产党人在历史关口审时度势、取得事业进步的关键。

Since the end of the Cold War, the CCP Central Committee’s thinking on strategic opportunities in the domestic and foreign environments can be roughly divided into three periods.

冷战结束以来,中共中央对国内外环境的战略机遇思考大体可分为三个时期。

The first is the period of a spark of insight for the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” In the early 1990s, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China’s reform, opening up, and modernization drive were at a new major historical juncture, and changes in domestic and foreign situations were elusive. Deng Xiaoping reviewed the current situation from a new historical height and made important expositions. In March 1990, Deng Xiaoping said in a conversation with a responsible comrade of the Central Committee: “There are many contradictions in the world… There are contradictions that we can take advantage of. There are favorable conditions for us. There are opportunities. The question is how we grasp them.”3 He also noted that there would be an era of peace in the world and an absence of a new world war, saying “… we must firmly grasp the center of economic construction and do not lose this opportunity… we must take advantage of the opportunity to develop China.”4 In December 1990, Deng Xiaoping once again put forward the idea of “making good use of opportunities to solve development problems,” saying that “the situation at home and abroad is better than we expected… if this is maintained for 50 or 60 years, socialist China will be invincible.”5

其一,“战略机遇期”研判的洞察酝酿期。20 世纪 90 年代初,随着苏联的解体,中国改革开放和现代化建设处在新的重大历史关口,国内外形势变化难以捉摸。邓小平站在历史新高度审视时局并作出了重要论述。1990 年 3 月,邓小平同中央负责同志谈话时说:“世界上矛盾多得很……我们可利用的矛盾存在着,对我们有利的条件存在着,机遇存在着,问题是善于把握。”   他还指出, 国际上会有比较长时间的不爆发新的世界大战的和平环境,“……要紧紧抓住经济建设这个中心,不要丧失时机……要利用机遇,把中国发展起来”。1990 年 12 月,邓小平再次就“善于利用时机解决发展问题”提出:“国内外形势比我们预料的要好……这样保持五十年,六十年,社会主义中国将是不可战胜的。”

Deng Xiaoping’s thoughts on “opportunity” and “occasions” and accurate analysis of the actual situation at home and abroad have had a profound impact on the convening of the 14th Party Congress and the opening of a new situation of socialist modernization. In October 1992, the report of the 14th Party Congress clearly pointed out: “Now the domestic conditions are in place, the international environment is favorable, there are both challenges and opportunities, and it is a good time for us to speed up our development.”6 By accurately judging the international situation and the stage characteristics of China’s domestic development, the CCP Central Committee formulated correct guidelines for foreign relations and domestic development policies and has continued to promote China’s rapid economic growth in the next three decades, the rapid improvement of people’s living standards, and the rapid rise of comprehensive national strength and international status.

邓小平关于“机遇”“时机”的思考以及对国内外实际情况的精准分析,对党的十四大召开和社会主义现代化建设新局面的开启产生了深远的影响。1992 年 10 月,党的十四大报告明确指出: “现在国内条件具备,国际环境有利,既有挑战,更有机遇,是我们加快发展的好时机。” 党中央通过准确判断国际形势与中国国内发展的阶段性特征,制定了正确的对外关系指导方针与对内发展 政策,持续推动中国此后三十年的经济高速增长、人民生活水平的飞速提升以及综合国力与国际 地位的快速上升。

The second is the period of policy formation for the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” On May 31, 2002, Jiang Zemin first proposed the concept of a “period of strategic opportunity” in his speech at the Party School of the CCP Central Committee. In November of that year, the report of the 16th Party Congress officially adopted the formulation of “an important period of strategic opportunity” in a central document for the first time: “Looking at the overall situation, the first two decades of the 21st century are an important period of strategic opportunity where we can live and make a difference.7 Since then, the central decision-making level has continued to use this formulation, and the emphasis on the seriousness of internal and external challenges has been continuously strengthened.8 The report of the 17th Party Congress in 2007 stated: “The opportunities are unprecedented, and challenges are also unprecedented, though the opportunities outweigh the challenges… We must seize and make good use of important strategic opportunities, be realistic and pragmatic, forge ahead, continue to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and accelerate socialist modernization, and complete our noble mission as entrusted by the times.”9 In 2010, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth CCP Central Committee further pointed out: “Based on a comprehensive assessment of the international and domestic situation, China’s development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities that can make great achievements, facing both rare historical opportunities and many foreseeable and unforeseeable risks.”10

其二,“战略机遇期”研判的政策成形期。2002 年 5 月 31 日,江泽民在中共中央党校讲话中首次提出“战略机遇期”的概念。当年 11  月党的十六大报告首次在中央文件中正式采用“重要战略机遇期”的提法:“综观全局,二十一世纪头二十年,对我国来说,是一个必须紧紧抓住并且可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期。”   此后,中央决策层均沿用了这个提法,且对内外挑战严峻性的重视也不断加强。2007 年党的十七大报告表述道:“机遇前所未有,挑战也前所未有,机遇大于挑战……要抓好和用好重要战略机遇期,求真务实,锐意进取,继续全面建设小康社会、加快推进社会主义现代化,完成时代赋予的崇高使命。”2010 年党的十七届五中全会进一步指出:“综合判断国际国内形势,我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期,既面临难得的历史机遇, 也面对诸多可以预见和难以预见的风险挑战。”

The cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the research and judgment of the “important period of strategic opportunity” have not changed, but the emphasis on “opportunity awareness and risk awareness” has increased significantly. The report of the 18th Party Congress in 2012 emphasized: “We must accurately judge the changes in the connotation and conditions of the important period of strategic opportunity, fully grasp the opportunity, deal with the challenge calmly, win the initiative, gain the advantage, and win the future.”11 The 2014 Central Economic Work Conference continued, clearly emphasizing: “The judgment that China’s development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities that can make great achievements has not changed. What has changed is the connotation and conditions of the important period of strategic opportunity.”12 In October 2015, in the face of profound and complex changes in the international and domestic environment, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again clearly pointed out at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee: “Although the international and domestic environments have undergone profound and complex changes, our significant judgment to develop important occasions for strategic opportunity has not changed.”13

中国特色社会主义事业进入新时代,“重要战略机遇期”的研判没有变,但对“机遇意识、风险意识”的强调明显增多。2012 年党的十八大报告强调:“我们要准确判断重要战略机遇期内涵和条件的变化,全面把握机遇,沉着应对挑战,赢得主动,赢得优势,赢得未来。”2014  年中央经济工作会议继续明确强调:“没有改变我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期的判断,改变的是重要战略机遇期的内涵和条件。”2015 年 10 月,面对深刻复杂变化的国际国内环境, 习近平总书记在党的十八届五中全会上再次明确指出:“尽管国际国内环境发生了深刻复杂变化,我们发展重要战略机遇期的重大判断没有改变。”

Entering the second decade of the 21st century, the CCP Central Committee has deeply realized that the internal and external conditions and environments faced by the “important period of strategic opportunity” have produced many influencing variables that may be unfavorable to China’s development, and China has also nurtured and accumulated a large number of new development advantages. China’s development has long faced a dialectical relationship between “crisis” and “opportunity,” “internal” and “external” coordination, “disaster” and “blessing,” and “competition” and “integration.” Such expressions appear frequently in the documents of the CCP Central Committee. It can be seen that the strategic opportunity after the “first 20 years of the 21st century” has become an important topic of the CCP Central Committee. In October 2017, the report of the 19th Party Congress pointed out: “China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, the prospects are very bright, and the challenges are also very severe.”14 In May 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping once again clearly pointed out in his speech when he chaired a symposium on the rise of the central region: “China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development, but the international situation it faces is increasingly complex. We must be soberly aware of the long-term and complex nature of various unfavorable factors at home and abroad and be properly prepared to deal with various difficult situations.”15 The prefix “still” before the “period of strategic opportunity” reflects the fact-seeking and calm strategic determination of the CCP Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, as well as the strategic perseverance for long-term continuation of domestic and foreign policies.

进入 21 世纪第二个十年,党中央深刻认识到,“重要战略机遇期”所面临的内外部条件与环境都出现了诸多可能不利于中国发展的影响变量,而中国也孕育和积累了大量新的发展优势。中国发展长期面临“危”“机”共在、“内”“外”统筹、“祸”“福”双出、“竞”“合”并行的辩证关系,这类表述在党中央的文件中频频出现。由此可见,“21 世纪头 20 年”结束后的战略机遇事宜开始成为党中央的重要议题。2017 年 10 月,党的十九大报告指出:“我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期,前景十分光明,挑战也十分严峻。”2019 年 5 月,习近平总书记在主持召开中部地区崛起工作座谈会时的讲话中再次明确指出:“我国仍处于发展的重要战略机遇期,但面临的国际形势日趋错综复杂。我们要清醒认识国际国内各种不利因素的长期性、复杂性,妥善做好应对各种困难局面的准备。”  在“战略机遇期”之前加上“仍”一字作为前缀,体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央实事求是、沉着冷静的战略定力以及长期延续内外政策的战略毅力。

The third is the period of maintenance and extension of the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity.” In 2020, at the end of the “first 20 years of the 21st century,” how to “maintain and extend the period of important strategic opportunity for China’s development” will be put on the agenda.16 The communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee added a temporal adverb to this statement for the first time, clearly stating: “At present and in the future, China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, but there are new developments and changes in both opportunities and challenges.”17 In March 2021, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Vision 2035 adopted the same expression in the communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee through policy planning. This shows that in the view of the CCP Central Committee, at least until 2035, the “important period of strategic opportunity” will exist for a long time.

其三,“战略机遇期”研判的维护延长期。2020 年,“21 世纪头 20 年”结束之际,如何“维护延长我国发展的重要战略机遇期”被提上议事日程。 党的十九届五中全会公报对此表述首次加了时间状语,明确指出:“当前和今后一个时期,我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期,但机遇和挑战都有新的发展变化。”2021 年 3 月,《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要》通过政策规划的方式,采用了党的十九届五中全会公报中的同样表述。这说明在党中央看来,至少到 2035 年前“重要战略机遇期”是会长期存在的。

According to the book Questions and Answers on the Study of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the CCP Central Committee reached this basic judgment from the perspectives of both the international and domestic environments: “From the perspective of the external environment, there is an important basis for making this basic judgment… Although the international environment is increasingly complex, overall, things are still in our favor. Time and momentum are on our side.” “From the perspective of China’s development, there is a solid foundation for making this basic judgment… The solid material foundation, abundant human capital, broad market space, huge development potential, and significant institutional advantages are the firm foundation for China’s development at present and in the future important period of strategic opportunity.”18

根据《习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想学习问答》一书的说明,党中央是从国际国内环境两方面的角度作出这一基本判断的:“从外部环境看,作出这一基本判断有着重要依据。……虽然国际环境日趋复杂,但仍总体于我有利,时与势在我们一边。”“从我国发展看,作出这一基本判断有着坚实基础。……雄厚物质基础、丰富的人力资本、广阔的市场空间、巨大的发展潜力和显著的制度优势,是当前和今后一个时期我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期的坚定基础。”

It can be seen that from inspiration, finalization, and extension, the research and judgment of the “period of strategic opportunity” reflect the keen observation of the internal and external current situations, the sense of anxiety about the status quo, and the forward-looking thinking since the reform and opening up. This has played a crucial role in the formulation of China’s development strategy and the formulation of expected goals.19

可见,从酝酿、定型再到延长,“战略机遇期”的研判体现了改革开放以来历任党和国家领导人对内外时势的敏锐观察、对现状的忧患意识以及对未来的前瞻思考,这对中国发展战略的制定与预期目标的制定发挥了至关重要的作用。

The understanding of the “period of strategic opportunity” is not only related to the overall situation of China’s development, but also to the success or failure and to the future and destiny of the socialist cause. It is precisely based on the accurate judgment, comprehensive grasp, and precise borrowing of the “period of strategic opportunity” that China can analyze favorable factors in the volatile, difficult, and complex international situation since the 1990s. This is how China can catch favorable trends from the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the rise of the Asia-Pacific, and the containment of the United States and other international changes and explore the development momentum that has improved the national economy and people’s livelihood and promoted rapid growth from the new generation of S&T revolution.

对“战略机遇期”的认识不仅关系到中国发展全局,更关系到社会主义事业的兴衰成败、前途和命运。正是基于对“战略机遇期”的准确研判、全面把握与精准借力,中国才能在 20 世纪90 年代以来风云变幻、艰难复杂的国际局势中透析有利因素,从东欧剧变、苏联解体、亚太崛起、美国遏制等国际变局的缝隙中捕捉利好趋势,从新一代科技革命中发掘提升国计民生、推动高速增长的发展动能。

The problem is that in recent years, facing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth has slowed, China-U.S. conflicts have intensified, and some executive departments and local governments have gained absolute and mechanized control of “risk” and “safety.” Such factors have weakened many people’s confidence in future investment and development prospects. In December 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that China’s economic development is facing the “triple pressure” of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Of these, “weakening expectations” stems from people’s concerns about changes in the domestic and foreign environments. With the United States positioning China as its “biggest strategic competitor,” international “China threat” theories and “China responsibility” theories have emerged one after another, and the “triple pressure” of domestic economic development has increased, some people began to doubt whether the “period of strategic opportunity” still exists. Some even believe that the “important period of strategic opportunity” has ended ahead of schedule.20 Therefore, to deeply understand and widely disseminate the “important period of strategic opportunity” that still exists in the third decade of the 21st century at the level of public opinion is of great guiding significance for people to rationally grasp the current domestic and international situation and to insist on deepening reform and opening up in an all-round way. Talking more about the “period of strategic opportunity” will not only help alleviate the anxiety of the public but also may play a role in raising future expectations and reminding party committees and governments at all levels, all sectors of society, and market players to seek truth from facts to objectively explore the development opportunities that exist.

问题在于,近年来面临新冠肺炎疫情冲击,经济增长放缓,中美矛盾加剧,加之一些执行部门与地方政府对“风险”“安全”管控绝对化、机械化,中国发展中存在的多重影响因素使不少民众对未来投资与发展前景的信心减弱。2021  年 12  月,中央经济工作会议明确提出,我国经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱的“三重压力”,其中之一的“预期转弱”就是源于人们对国内外环境变化的担心。随着美国将中国定位为“最大战略竞争对手”,国际“中国威胁论”“中国责任论”此起彼伏和国内经济发展“三重压力”的加大,一些人开始怀疑“战略机遇期”是否还存在,甚至有人认为“重要战略机遇期”已提前结束了。    因此,深刻认识并在社会舆论层面广泛传播 21 世纪第三个十年仍然存在的“重要战略机遇期”,对推动人们理性把握当前国内外形势、坚持深化改革与全面开放具有重要指导意义。多讲讲“战略机遇期”,既有助于缓解民众的焦虑,也可能起到拉升未来预期的作用,更有助于提醒各级党委政府、社会各界、市场主体实事求是地挖掘客观存在的发展机遇。

2. Important strategic opportunities for China that will still exist for a long time at home and abroad

二、国内外环境下中国仍将长期存在的重要战略机遇

Capturing “opportunities” is an important prerequisite for resolving challenges and risks. Talking about the “period of strategic opportunity” is not meant to mislead people to ignore challenges and risks but to let people find pragmatic solutions to difficulties and challenges. Whether from the international environment or from the domestic reality, the existence of strategic opportunities is real, and of course, we must grasp them correctly: On the one hand, it is necessary to objectively clarify the strategic opportunities brought about by the external environment that is still favorable to China as a whole; on the other hand, it is necessary to fully explore important strategic opportunities that will still exist for a long time in China’s domestic development opportunities.

捕捉“机遇”是化解挑战与风险的重要前提。讲“战略机遇期”,不是要误导人们不理会挑战与风险,而是要让人们从困难与不易中找到务实的解决之道。无论是从国际环境还是从国内现实来看,战略机遇的存在是实实在在的,当然也需要我们正确予以把握:一方面,要客观厘清对中国整体仍然有利的外部环境带来的战略机遇;另一方面,要全面挖掘中国国内发展良机仍将长期存在的重要战略机遇。

From the perspective of the external environment, China has at least four important strategic opportunities.

从外部环境来看,中国至少有四个方面的重要战略机遇。

First, in the foreseeable future, the United States itself will be in a state of great political division, great economic stagnation, great social decline, and great distrust of discourse for a long time, which will objectively form a relatively favorable strategic situation for the rise of China. The U.S. policy toward China will continue to harass China’s development, but it cannot condense into an effective force to comprehensively contain China’s rise. Instead, it can force China to form a situation of unity and progress.

一是在可预测的将来,美国自身将长期处于政治大分裂、经济大停滞、社会大衰败与话语大失信的状态,在客观上形成对中国崛起相对有利的战略境况。美国对华政策会不断滋扰中国发展, 但无法凝结成全面遏制中国崛起的有效力量,反而还能倒逼中国国内形成团结奋进的局面。

The two political parties in the United States are seriously divided. Although they both believe that the rise of China is a deep challenge to the United States, they have not reached a consensus on how to deal with it, how to use it, and what degree of strength is needed for containment. After Trump took office in 2017, the United States has used various means to suppress China, such as economic and trade wars, technological wars, provoking frictions with China’s neighbors, and human rights and ideological attacks, but all have failed. In 2021, the trade volume between China and the United States will reach a new high, and the surplus with the United States will expand. Most people believe that the U.S. trade war with China has failed. Since Biden took office as U.S. president, the U.S. government has also been unable to come up with an effective way to deal with and contain the rise of China. What is more worthy of attention is that the political division in the United States has led to the failure of the system and the division of society. The national values and political discourse on which the United States depends, such as democracy, freedom, and the rule of law, are under unprecedented internal doubt. Fukuyama, Ray Dalio, and other political and economic figures have predicted that the “veto politics” in the United States is rampant, and a civil war or national collapse may break out in the future.21 Since the second half of 2021, the U.S. inflation rate has repeatedly hit new highs in more than 40 years, exposing the illusion of the so-called “economic recovery.” In 2021, China’s economic aggregate will be about 78 percent of that of the United States, and China has become the country with the smallest gap with the United States in its status as the No. 1 economy in the past 130 years. Most institutions predict that in the next eight years or so, China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy. In the medium and long term, time is still on China’s side. 22

美国两党严重分裂,二者尽管都认为中国崛起对美国具有深度挑战,但在怎么应对、用什么方式、遏制强度如何等问题上,并未达成共识。2017 年特朗普就任美国总统以后,美国先后用经贸战、科技战、挑拨中国周边摩擦、人权与意识形态攻击等多种方式压制中国,但都未能如愿。2021 年,中美贸易额再创新高,对美顺差扩大,多数人都认为美国对华贸易战已失败。拜登就任美国总统以来,美国政府同样拿不出有效应对与遏制中国崛起的办法。更值得关注的是,美国政治分裂导致制度失效、社会分裂。民主、自由、法治等美国赖以维系的国家价值观与政治话语受到空前的内部质疑。包括福山、雷 •  达利奥等政经界人士都预测,美国“否决政治”泛滥,可能在未来爆发“内战”或国家崩溃。2021 年下半年以来,美国通胀率屡创 40 多年来新高,暴露了所谓“经济复苏”的假象。2021 年中国的经济总量约为美国的 78%,中国成为过去 130 年以来与美国第一经济体地位差距最小的国家。多数机构预计,未来 8 年左右,中国将超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。从中长期看,时间仍在中国这边。

Second, the division among Western countries and the worsening of internal conflicts have objectively provided a strategic space for China to break through the Western blockade and resolve the “new Cold War” trend of the West against China. The internal contradictions between the United States and Europe are fierce, and France and Germany, which seek diplomatic independence, will not allow the European Union to fully follow the United States’ policy of containing China. Although Lithuania’s “pawn”-style anti-China forces have appeared in the 17 Central and Eastern European countries, they are not enough to become a trend. The United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Canada, and others have followed suit with regard to U.S. policies. However, given the huge economic interests in China, domestic opposition to China’s policy of containing China is rising. The policies of these countries towards China are more or less “on the wall” that “appears to be in favor of the United States, but actually still engages with China.” China-UK, China-Japan, China-Australia, and China-Canada trade volume has continued to rise in recent years, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including Australia, was officially launched on New Year’s Day in 2022. These are typical examples.

二是西方国家间分裂、内部矛盾恶化,客观上为中国突破西方大封锁、化解西方对华“新冷战”之势提供了纵横捭阖的战略空间。美欧内部矛盾激烈,寻求外交自主的法、德两国不会拉着欧盟全面跟随美国对华遏制政策;中东欧 17   国虽出现立陶宛“马前卒”式的反华势力,但完全不足以成气候。英国、日本、澳大利亚、加拿大等对美国政策亦步亦趋,但鉴于在华经济利益巨大, 国内反对遏制中国政策的声音高涨,这些国家对华政策多少呈现“表面上倒向美国、实际仍与中国交往”的“骑墙派”。中英、中日、中澳、中加贸易总额近年来连续上涨,包括澳大利亚在内的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(英文缩写为“RCEP”)也于 2022 年元旦正式启动。这些都是典型例证。

Third, the regional influence of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and other emerging economies has checked, balanced, and contained the U.S. hegemony for a long time. This has created more strategic time for China to build a moderate and dexterous foreign relationship. Coupled with the promotion of the Belt and Road construction over the past nine years, China has not only made friends around the world but also expanded unprecedented external space. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out in February 2022 has turned into a tug-of-war, which has completely deteriorated the relationship between Russia and the West. The game between the United States and Russia over the post-Ukrainian crisis will be protracted; the rise of Turkey and Iran’s influence in the Middle East has also restrained the energy of the United States. The Belt and Road construction has reshaped the external opportunities for China as a rising power. Instead of falling into an international dilemma like the United States with enemies everywhere, China has many true friends like Pakistan and Serbia who stand up with China at critical moments.

三是俄罗斯、土耳其、伊朗等新兴经济体长期制衡与牵制美国霸权的地区影响力,为中国建立温和、灵巧的对外关系创造了更多腾挪的战略时间。加之近 9 年推进“一带一路”建设,中国不仅结交了全球朋友,也拓展了前所未有的外部空间。2022 年 2 月爆发的俄乌冲突呈现拉锯战化, 使俄罗斯与西方关系彻底恶化,美、俄围绕后乌克兰危机的博弈将长期化;土耳其、伊朗在中东地区影响力的崛起,都牵制了美国一部分精力。“一带一路”建设重塑了中国作为崛起大国的外 部机遇,使中国非但没有陷入像美国那样到处有敌人的国际窘境,反而有像巴基斯坦、塞尔维亚等在关键时刻力顶中国的许多真朋友。

More importantly, the share of developing countries in the global economy has continued to rise and will overtake developed countries around 2030. The agenda of developing countries will become the mainstream global discourse. Whether it be the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Vision 2040 for Latin America, or the call for “joint efforts to build a prosperous and united Africa on the basis of common values and common destiny,” “development” has become the greatest common divisor of national strategies.23 Undoubtedly, there has been an unprecedented political awakening in developing countries. As for the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind advocated by China, especially during the pandemic period, China has shown great love in the export of masks, ventilators, vaccines, and other materials and international mutual assistance, such that China has grown in popularity around the world. According to the survey data of the Pew Research Center of the United States from various countries around the world, the favorability of China’s image has exceeded that of the United States on many occasions.

更重要的是,发展中国家在全球的经济份额持续上升,2030 年前后将超过发达国家,发展中国家的议程将成为世界主流话语。无论是联合国“2030 年可持续发展目标”(SDGs),还是“拉丁美洲 2040 年远景规划”,抑或是号召“在共同价值观和共同命运基础上合力建设繁荣团结的非洲” 等,“发展”已成为各国战略的最大公约数。 无疑,发展中国家出现了前所未有的政治觉醒。中国主张的人类命运共同体理念,尤其是疫情期中国在口罩、呼吸机、疫苗等物资出口与国际互助中体现的大爱,使中国越来越得全球人心。美国皮尤调查中心在全球各国的历年调查数据显示, 中国形象的好感度多次超过美国。

Fourth, China’s “curve overtaking” in the new round of the industrial revolution has enabled China to stand at the forefront of the world in the wave of the industrial revolution for the first time in history, thereby creating a strategic momentum with a “siphoning” of technology and capital. In the first three rounds of the industrial revolution, China lagged seriously behind. At present, China is basically in the same position as developed countries in many more advanced fields such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence, 5G research and development, supercomputing, nanomaterials, manned spaceflight, smart cities, and quantum science. China has ranked second in the world in scientific research funding for nine consecutive years and is expected to surpass the United States to become the first in 2022. The latest research report The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs. the U.S. in the 21st Century released by Harvard University and Cambridge University clearly pointed out: “China’s technology is rising rapidly. In some races, it has already become No. 1. In others, on current trajectories, it will overtake the United States within the next decade.”24

四是中国在新一轮产业革命中的“弯道超车”,使中国有史以来首次在工业革命浪潮中站在世界的最前沿,进而创造了技术与资本“虹吸效应”般的战略动能。在前三轮工业革命中,中 国严重滞后。当下的中国则在数字经济、人工智能、5G 研发、超级计算、纳米材料、载人航天、智慧城市、量子科学等多个领域都基本处在与发达国家的同一个阶梯位置,有的领域甚至更为领先。中国连续 9 年科研经费投入占据世界第二,2022 年有望超过美国成为第一。哈佛大学和剑桥大学最新发布的研究报告《伟大的竞争:21 世纪中国与美国的较量》中明确指出:“中国科技在快速上升,在一些领域,中国已超过美国;在其他领域,中国将在未来 10 年赶超美国。”

In conclusion, in terms of strategic opportunities in the external environment, despite the growing and changing external challenges, it has to be said that in the “three superimposed phases” of the adjustment period of the power structure of the great powers, the period of technological wave-led replacement, and the period of changes to the system of global development and with the rise of groups in developing countries, cooperation, peace, and recovery are the greatest common divisors of the demands of all countries. Notably, China is still in an important period when opportunities outweigh challenges for a long time.25 In this regard, we cannot be swayed by the “clamors” of Western public opinion against China and the unfriendly voices or events of some countries. The total stock of China’s overseas assets exceeds $8 trillion, and some external bumps are inevitable. Judging from the author’s long-term follow-up and foreign exchanges with nearly 100 countries in the past decade, it must be said with confidence that most of the actions and clamors of the United States against China are still “all thunder and no rain” or quixotic politician performance that cannot impede China’s long-term development.

综上,就外部环境的战略机遇看,尽管存在日益增长与变化的外部挑战,但不得不说,大国权力结构调整期、科技浪潮领衔更替期和全球发展体系变迁期“三期叠加”,发展中国家群体崛起, 合作、和平与复苏是各国诉求的最大公约数,中国仍然长期处在机遇大于挑战的重要时期。    对此,我们不能被西方舆论对华的“叫嚷”以及一些国家个别对华不友好的声音或事件左右。中国在海外资产存量总额超过 8 万亿美元,外部的一些磕磕碰碰在所难免。以笔者在过去十多年对近百国的长期追踪与对外交流的经验看,必须自信地讲,美国对华的动作与叫嚣,多数还是“雷声大、雨点小”或是堂吉诃德式的政客表演,不可能阻挡中国的长期发展。

From the perspective of the internal environment, China also has at least four important strategic opportunities.

从内部环境看,中国至少也有四个方面的重要战略机遇。

First, the ever-increasing authority of the CCP Central Committee and the leadership of the CCP have provided China with unparalleled strategic capabilities for the introduction and implementation of China’s next major reform and opening-up policy. Since socialism with Chinese characteristics entered a new era, the process of building and modernizing China’s national governance system has accelerated, and various domestic systems have been continuously improved. Through the implementation of major policies such as targeted poverty alleviation, ecological environmental protection, anti-corruption and anti-criminalism, risk prevention and control, social governance, digital economy, rule of law, and common prosperity, the Chinese people’s support for the government and social solidarity are unmatched by any developed country. Regardless of what major reform measures it wants to push and what major things it wants to do, the Chinese government has this system advantage and leadership ability more than any other country at any time.

一是不断增强的党中央权威与党的领导力为中国下一步重大改革与开放政策的出台与落实, 提供了他国无以比拟的战略能力。中国特色社会主义进入新时代以来,中国国家治理体系建设和治理现代化的进程加快,国内各类制度不断得以完善。通过精准扶贫、生态环保、反腐打黑、防控风险、社会治理、数字经济、依法治国、共同富裕等重大政策的实施,中国民众对政府的拥护、社会的团结是任何发达国家都无法比拟的。想推什么重大改革措施,要集中力量做什么大事,中国政府比任何时候、任何国家都具备这个制度优势与领导能力。

Second, the possibility of a huge economic scale and large room for development has been continuously stimulated, making China’s sustainable development possess strategic potential unmatched by other countries. After China became the world’s largest foreign exchange reserve country in 2006, the world’s largest manufacturing country in 2010, the world’s largest trader in goods in 2013, and the world’s largest trading country in 2018, China’s amount of foreign direct investment and foreign investment attracted for the first time in 2020 surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest consumer market. In addition, China also has the most complete and largest industrial categories and industrial system in the world and has the world’s largest number of talents with higher education or various professional skills. Even so, China’s development potential is still quite large; there are a billion people who have never been on a plane, with only about 5 percent of the population with an undergraduate education, compared to the United States, where the number is about 25 percent. As long as we continue to reform and open up, the industrial monopoly and local protections in all aspects of production, distribution, circulation, and consumption at home and abroad will be broken, and the organic renewal, shantytown renovation, and moderately advanced infrastructure construction of cities in various places have been fully launched, and a new round of growth points have been found in the development space of consumption, investment, urbanization, digital economy, and green economy.26

二是经济规模巨大、发展余地大的可能性不断被激发,使中国持续发展具备他国无以比拟的战略潜力。中国继 2006 年成为世界第一外汇储备国、2010 年成为世界第一制造业大国、2013 年跃居世界第一货物贸易大国、2018 年成为世界第一贸易大国之后,2020 年对外直接投资和吸引外资数额均首次超过美国跃居世界第一,有望在近年内超过美国成为全球最大消费市场。此外, 中国还具有全球最完整、规模最大的工业门类和工业体系,有世界最多的受过高等教育或拥有各类专业技能的人才。即便如此,中国发展潜力仍相当大,如有 10 亿人没有坐过飞机,获得大学本科教育的人数比例仅约 5%、而美国却有 25% 左右,等等。只要不断改革与开放,国内外的生产、分配、流通、消费各个环节的行业垄断与地方保护被打破,各地城市有机更新、棚户改造、适度超前基建全面启动,在消费、投资、城镇化、数字经济、绿色经济的发展空间中找到新一轮增长点, 我们有理由相信,中国经济仍然能在未来出现新的喷发之势。

Third, the Chinese people’s will to aspire to a better life has become more determined, giving China’s future high-quality development a strategic impetus originating from the grassroots of society. Compared with the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, today’s Chinese are more concerned with the quality of life and the material standards of individuals; compared with the early days of reform and opening up, today’s Chinese are also unwilling to endure the pollution, corruption, and injustice that rapid economic growth has brought. This gives China’s economy an endogenous impetus to transform from speed and scale to quality and benefits, such that policies issued by the State continue to promote changes in quality, efficiency, and power. With a commitment to the establishment of the “green, low-carbon and circular development economic system” mentioned in the report of the 19th Party Congress, final development results will better benefit all people as we continue to realize the people’s yearning for a better life. Compared to 1978 when China was still one of the poorest countries in the world, China is now the second largest economy in the world. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average annual social consumption of Chinese residents is about $4,600, which is only 1/4 of that of the United States. The per capita housing area in China’s cities and towns is about 40 square meters, about five times the 8.1 square meters in 1978, but still less than 2/3 of that in the United States (about 65 square meters). There are only 0.21 cars per capita in China, 1/5 of that of Americans. The urbanization rate in China is only 57 percent, a far cry from the 82 percent urbanization rate in the United States. In 2021, China’s forest coverage rate had increased from 10 percent to 23 percent, the largest increase in the world, but there is still a big gap with the world’s average forest coverage rate of 32 percent.27 Fourth, the Chinese people have continuously improved their self-confidence in the path ahead in recent years and accumulated experience in constantly fighting internal and external risks, which has cultivated a large number of strategic talents for the future to calmly cope with various risks and challenges. Over the past 10 years, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese have effectively dealt with a series of deep internal contradictions such as corruption within the Party, deterioration of the ecological environment, social differentiation, targeted poverty alleviation, systemic financial risk prevention, and prevention and control of COVID-19. The Chinese have successfully resolved economic and trade wars, technological wars, border frictions, human rights, and ideological repression, as well as a series of external pressures from hegemonic forces in the United States and the West, such as those related to Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and the seas, as batch after batch of young and middle-aged cadres have been baptized with experience to improve their skills. From the perspective of the foreseeable future, the post-90s and post-00s generations who have gradually become the backbone of society have unprecedented confidence in the Communist Party of China and in taking the Chinese path.28 The next generation has a higher proportion of patriotism and party love.

三是中国人向往美好生活的意愿变得更为坚定,使中国未来高质量发展具备源于社会基层的战略动力。相比新中国成立初期,当下的中国人更关切和在乎个人生活质量与物质水准;相比改革开放初期,当下的中国人也不愿意忍受污染、腐败与不公而换得的快速经济增长。这使中国经济从速度规模型向质量效益型转变有了内生动力,使国家出台的政策不断推动质量变革、效率变革、动力变革,致力于建立党的十九大报告所提的“绿色低碳循环发展的经济体系”,最终发展成果更好地惠及全体人民,不断实现人民对美好生活的向往。比起 1978 年时中国仍是全世界最贫穷的国家之一,现在的中国已稳居世界第二大经济体。根据国家统计局数据,中国的居民年均社会消费额约 4600 美元,仅是美国的 1/4。中国城镇人均住房面积约 40 平方米,约是 1978 年 8.1平方米的 5 倍,但仍不足美国(约 65 平方米)的 2/3。中国人均拥有小汽车仅有 0.21 辆,为美国人的 1/5。中国城镇化率仅 57%,比起美国 82% 的城镇化率相差甚远。2021 年,中国的森林覆盖率已从 10% 提高到 23%,提升幅度世界第一,但与世界森林 32% 的平均覆盖率仍有较大差距。 四是中国人近年来持续提升的道路自信以及不断与内外部风险斗争的经验积累,为未来沉着应对各类风险与挑战培养了大量战略人才。近 10   年来,中国人在中国共产党的坚强领导下,有效应对党内腐败、生态环境恶化、社会分化、精准扶贫、系统性金融风险防范、新冠肺炎疫情防控等一系列内部深度矛盾,成功化解了经贸战、科技战、边境摩擦、人权与意识形态压制,以及涉港、涉疆、涉藏、涉海等一系列来自美西方霸权势力的外部压力,一批又一批的中青年干部受到洗礼而提升本领。从可预见的将来看,逐渐成为社会中坚层的“90 后”“00 后”对中国共产党、对走中国道路也空前自信。 下一代人爱国、爱党的比例更高。

To sum up, the objective excavation of the internal strategic opportunity period is not about avoiding current risks, challenges, and domestic issues, but rather, it means that at present, China from top to down, from inside to out, and from near to far all contain the confidence to deal with risks, challenges, and problems as our pace of reform and opening up can be faster, and our minds can be more emancipated.

综上,对内部战略机遇期的客观挖掘,不是说要回避当前的风险、挑战与国内问题,而是说当前中国自上而下、自里到外、自近及远无一不蕴含着应对风险、挑战与问题的底气,我们对改革与开放的步伐还可以更加快、思想还可以更解放一些。

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: “Our Party relies on struggle to make history, and it must rely on struggle to win the future.”29 In the face of increasing challenges and risks in the changing situation of the century, we do not need to talk of “risks” and “challenges” to change, nor do we need to be afraid of “risks” and “challenges” and thus stop moving forward.

习近平总书记强调:“我们党依靠斗争创造历史,更要依靠斗争赢得未来。” 面对百年变局下的挑战与风险增多,我们不必谈“风险”“挑战”而色变,更不必怕“风险”“挑战”而止步不前。

Risks, challenges, and problems will always exist. We must always be far-sighted, be prepared for danger in times of safety, and always keep capturing, maintaining, and extending the period of strategic opportunities.

风险、挑战、问题是永远存在的,我们要常怀远虑、居安思危,也要时刻保持对战略机遇期的捕捉、维护与延长。

3. Thoughts on China’s path to maintain and extend the period of strategic opportunities

三、中国维护与延长战略机遇期的路径思考

Analyzing the many domestic and foreign bases that still exist in the “current and future period” during the period of important strategic opportunities, it is not to shy away from in-depth research on the increasingly complex and increasingly unstable domestic and foreign environments and does not even ignore the complex external environment in which the current world economy is sluggish, globalization goes against the flow, the global pattern is turbulent, and peace is threatened. On the contrary, summarizing the practical enlightenment of the previous important period of strategic opportunities and firmly believing that the important period of strategic opportunities is still extending, we must promote the whole Party and the whole country to further unify thought, will, and action and must also further unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups in the country to win new great victories of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era in the future. Furthermore, we must always grasp the historical initiative of the development of the Party and the country in the new era and new journey and strengthen the courage and will to anchor the established goals and move forward with high spirits as this will be of great practical and far-reaching historical significance.

剖析重要战略机遇期在“当前和今后一个时期”仍然存在的诸多国内外依据,并不是回避对日趋复杂、不稳定性明显增加的国内外环境的深度研究,更不是无视当下世界经济低迷、全球化逆流、世界格局动荡、和平遭受威胁的复杂外部环境。相反,总结此前重要战略机遇期的现实启示并坚信重要战略机遇期仍在延长,是推动全党全国进一步统一思想、统一意志、统一行动的需要, 也是未来进一步团结带领全国各族人民夺取新时代中国特色社会主义新的伟大胜利的需要,更是始终把握新时代新征程中党和国家事业发展的历史主动权、增强锚定既定奋斗目标与意气风发走向未来的勇气和力量的需要,具有重大现实意义和深远历史意义。

Throughout modern history, China has missed important strategic opportunities at least twice. In the 15th century, the era of great voyages began. The emperor of the Ming Dynasty dispatched Zheng He to the Western Ocean seven times, but he did not turn overseas development into a driving force for domestic wealth growth, ideological enlightenment, and technological revolution. In the end, the great strategic opportunity that could have been the first in China to realize the upgrading of human civilization since modern times was missed. In the second half of the 19th century, the Westernization faction in the late Qing Dynasty put forward the idea of “learning the skills of foreigners” and launched the Westernization Movement, but it failed in the battle with the conservative faction. After that, the Qing court did not think about reforms, became blindly xenophobic, and successively lost in the China-Japanese War and the Eight-Power Allied Forces’ invasion of China. They missed the opportunity again, and eventually became the target of backwardness and beatings, as the spheres of influence were carved up by foreign powers.

纵观近现代史,中国至少两次错过重要战略机遇期。15 世纪大航海时代开启,明朝皇帝曾最早派遣郑和七次下西洋,却未将海外开拓转化为国内财富增长、思想启蒙与技术革命的动力,反而此后回归内向型发展,最终错失原本能在中国最早实现人类近代以来文明升级的大好战略机遇。19 世纪下半叶,清末洋务派曾提出“师夷长技”的主张,发动洋务运动,却在与保守派的争斗中失败。此后清廷不思变法、盲目排外,接连在甲午战争、八国联军侵华战争中失利,再次错失良机, 最终成为落后挨打、被外国列强瓜分势力范围的对象。

Judging from the course of the rise of the United States in the 20th century, the United States was able to become the victor by subtly joining the Allied Powers in the latter stages of World War I and abandoning its policy of isolationism after the attack on Pearl Harbor to become an anti-fascist leader in World War II. It has been able to take the lead in recovering from the previous international financial crises and also won the Cold War by delicately launching an arms race with the Soviet Union. The important experience of the United States, which has risen from a small country ranking in the global middle to a global hegemony that has remained the world’s largest economy for more than 130 years, is that it is good at seizing strategic opportunities and diluting risks while seizing opportunities.

从美国 20 世纪崛起的历程看,美国既能在第一次世界大战的后期巧妙地加入协约国集团而成为战胜方,还能在第二次世界大战珍珠港被偷袭后改变“孤立主义”政策转而成为反法西斯主义领导国;既能在历次国际金融危机中均率先复苏,还能在冷战中精巧地与苏联展开军备竞赛而最终胜出。美国从世界偏安一隅的小国崛起成全球霸主并保持 130 多年全球第一经济体的重要经验是善于抓捕战略机遇、善于在机遇把握中稀释风险。

The two positive and negative experiences of modern China’s “encountering risks while losing opportunities” and modern America’s “diluting risks while seizing opportunities” remind us that at the moment when the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is at its closest, it is important to both guard against risks and seize opportunities. If you only see opportunities and fail to pay attention to risks, you may be blindly optimistic and go backward for several years. If you only guard against risks and fail to seize opportunities, you may stop moving forward and miss opportunities.

近代中国“在丧失机遇中遭遇风险”与现代美国“在机遇把握中稀释风险”的两个正反经验提醒我们,在中华民族伟大复兴正处在离实现目标最近的时刻,防范风险与把握机遇是一个硬币的两面。只看到机遇,不注意风险,就有可能盲目乐观、一失策倒退数年;只防范风险,不把握机遇,也有可能止步不前、错失良机。

The dialectical unity of risks and opportunities is an important experience of the Communist Party of China, which is still flourishing as a century-old party. Looking back on the 100-year history of the growth and success of the Communist Party of China, from the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression to the victory of the War of Liberation, from the founding of New China to the success of reform and opening up, to a large extent, the Party has been constantly preventing and defusing risks and identifying and capturing strategic opportunities. Therefore, taking history as a mirror, at least three points are worth considering in China today.

风险与机遇的辩证统一,是中国共产党作为百年大党仍风华正茂的重要经验。回顾中国共产党成长、成功的百年进程,从抗日战争到解放战争的胜利,从新中国成立到改革开放的成功,在相当大程度上就是党不断防范化解风险、辨识捕捉战略机遇的进程。因此,以史为鉴,至少有三点值得当下中国思考。

First, we must correctly guide public opinion and actively shape recovery opportunities. In the spring of 2022, China experienced repeated outbreaks of COVID-19, and the downward pressure on the economy has further increased. Many industries and sectors that have been hit by the pandemic and have encountered difficulties or even short-term shocks are facing opportunities for re-distribution and re-expansion. From a macro perspective, we must talk more about the “period of strategic opportunities” as it will encourage individuals, enterprises, and institutions to adopt moderately advanced expansion policies, such as moderately advanced infrastructure construction, moderately loose monetary and credit policies, moderately avant-garde consumption behavior, and moderately risky investment behavior. This will allow us to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth in all fields of society and bring together the forces that promote the country’s realization of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision Outline. In fact, the Two Sessions of 2022 set China’s economic growth target at 5.5 percent for 2022, which is a pragmatic move that takes into account both risks and opportunities. Regarding the risks discussed by experts, scholars, and the Big V in the media and public opinion, we need to clarify a problem, that is, as long as China maintains a medium-to-high speed development, some risks such as debt, credit, and investment can be worried about and foreseen.

第一,正确引导社会舆论,积极塑造复苏机遇。2022 年春,中国遭遇新冠肺炎疫情的反复, 经济下行压力进一步加大,许多受到疫情冲击而遇到困扰甚至出现短暂休克的产业、行业都面临重新布局、重新拓展的机遇。宏观上多讲“战略机遇期”,将会促进个体、企业、机构采取适度超前扩张政策,比如,适度超前的基础设施建设、适当宽松的货币与信贷政策、适度前卫的消费行为、适度风险的投资举动等,进而保持社会各个领域的中高速增长,汇集推动国家实现“十四五规划与 2035 年远景纲要”的力量。事实上,2022 年“两会”将 2022 年中国经济增长目标设在5.5%,这本就是兼顾风险与机遇的务实之举。对于现在媒体舆论中专家、学者、“大 V”所谈的风险,我们需要澄清一个问题,即中国只要保持中高速的发展,如债务、信贷、投资等一些风险就是担心出来、想象出来的。

In the face of profound changes in the internal and external environments of China’s development since the new era, we must firmly believe that it is an objective fact that the period of strategic opportunities still exists, and we must actively seize the period of opportunities and give correct guidance in public opinion. Specifically, party committees and governments at all levels must emphasize risk prevention and safety. At the same time, we should rationally and objectively also talk about the “period of strategic opportunities.” This is not blind optimism about the situation but targeted encouragement for the future. It will not only help loosen the details of policies, rekindle passion for development, release economic vitality, and raise social expectations but will also promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s current national undertakings. As pointed out in the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Vision Outline: “Accurately recognize changes, respond scientifically, actively seek changes, be good at nurturing opportunities in crises, open new situations in changing situations, seize opportunities, respond to challenges, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and move forward bravely.”30

面对新时代以来中国发展内外环境发生的深刻变化,我们需要坚信战略机遇期仍然存在是客观事实,需要积极把握好机遇期并在社会舆论上作正确引导。具体而言,各级党委政府在强调防风险、抓安全的同时,应适当理性与客观地讲讲“战略机遇期”,这不是对局势的盲目乐观,而是对未来具有针对性鼓劲,不仅有助于宽松政策细节、重燃发展激情、释放经济活力、回升社会预期,更能推动当前中国的国家事业转型与升级。正如“十四五规划和 2035 年远景纲要”中所指出:“准确识变、科学应变、主动求变,善于在危机中育先机、于变局中开新局,抓住机遇,应对挑战,趋利避害,奋勇前进。”

Second, we must be brave, excel in external struggles, and maintain our strategic focus on opening up. In recent years, the game between major powers has been fierce, and China has frequently struggled with some Western forces, especially the United States. The United States also regards China as “the only country that has both the will and the ability to reshape the international order economically, diplomatically, militarily, and technologically.”31 Talking more about the “period of strategic opportunities” is not only an important manifestation of rationally viewing external risks and challenges but also an important basis for adhering to strategic determination, as well as an important driving force for guiding the people to open their eyes, relax their minds, and do their own affairs well. It is an important way of thinking to seek breakthroughs from these difficulties and challenges. External struggles are not an end but a means. Whether it is in the fields of politics, diplomacy, ideology, finance, economy, trade, or discourse power, the goal of daring to fight and being good at fighting is to meet current challenges, resolve internal and external conflicts, promote internal and external cooperation, and achieve national rejuvenation.32 For the United States, the biggest external variable affecting China’s rise, we must maintain a “head-to-head” mentality. Although it is difficult for the United States to become China’s friend at present, we do not have to push it to the position of an enemy. Of course, while daring to fight externally, we must also improve the ability and flexibility to be good at fighting.

第二,敢于并善于对外斗争,保持开放战略定力。近年来,大国博弈激烈,中国与一些西方势力尤其是对美斗争频繁。美国还将中国视为“唯一既有意愿,又在经济、外交、军事、科技上有能力重塑国际秩序的国家”。多谈“战略机遇期”,不仅是理性看待外部风险与挑战的重要体现, 而且是坚持战略定力的重要依据,还是引导全民开放视野、放平心态、做好自己的事情的重要动力, 更是要努力从这些困境与挑战中寻求突破的重要思维路径。对外斗争,不是目的而是手段。无论是在政治、外交、意识形态领域,还是在金融、经贸、话语权领域,对外敢于斗争、善于斗争的目标都是应对当下挑战,化解内外矛盾,推动内外合作,实现民族复兴。    对于影响中国崛起的最大外部变量——美国,我们需要保持“平视”之心态,虽然目前的美国很难成为中国朋友,但 我们也不必将其推到敌人位置。当然,在敢于对外斗争的同时,我们还要提升善于斗争的能力与灵活性。

In the face of the high anxiety of existing external hegemons about China’s rise and the trend of comprehensive containment, we need to have the strategic confidence and determination to coordinate domestic and foreign countries and handle them calmly to resolve this through an all-around opening-up policy. This requires accelerating system improvement in areas such as foreign personnel exchanges, financial opening, China-foreign cooperation, attracting talents, promoting the implementation of reforms, and adopting more relatively active and relatively loose policies. Therefore, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CCP Central Committee put forward the major strategic deployment of “accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting one another.” The more open and strong China is, the more it must maintain a posture of embracing, integrating, and leading the world as well as maintaining stability in domestic development. It can be said that no external force can stop the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

面对外部现有霸权国对中国崛起的高度焦虑之心与全面遏制之势,我们更需要有统筹国内国外、泰然处之的战略底气与定力,并通过全方位开放政策化解之。这就需要在对外人员交往、金融开放、中外合作、吸引人才等领域加快制度完善,推动改革落实,采取更多相对积极、相对宽松的政策。因此,党的十九届五中全会提出了“加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”的重大战略部署。中国越开放越强大,就越要保持拥抱、融入与引领世界的态势,保持国内发展的稳中求进。可以说,没有任何外部势力能够阻止中华民族的伟大复兴。

Third, we must tap into the dividends of reform and innovation and explore the expansion of resources and markets around the world. At present, China is more capable than ever before of obtaining global funds, resources, talents, and information to serve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and, more than ever, has the ability to contribute wisdom and solutions to human problems. Seizing the “period of strategic opportunity” requires that we continuously tap “reform dividends” and “innovation dividends” domestically. It also requires that we allocate more resources and a larger market on a global scale to seek stronger growth vitality in terms of internationalization, digitization, greening, and quality. The foundation of China’s next round of economic growth must be based on the domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and it must also focus on the world market of 7.5 billion people. It should seize the importance of the strategic window of low-cost global resources in the post-pandemic era and the urgent need for mergers and acquisitions. In this regard, the global deployment experience of companies and institutions in Europe, the United States, and Japan is worth learning from.

第三,挖掘改革创新红利,探索在全球拓展资源与市场。当下的中国,比任何时候都有能力获取全球资金、资源、人才、信息并使之服务于中华民族伟大复兴,也比任何时候都有能力为解决人类问题贡献智慧与方案。把握“战略机遇期”,既需要我们在国内不断挖掘“改革红利”与“创新红利”,也需要多从全球范围配置更大资源与更大市场,在国际化、数字化、绿色化、优质化等方面寻找更强的增长活力。中国下一轮经济增长的基础,要立足于 14 亿人的国内市场,更要着眼于 75 亿人的世界大市场,应抓住后疫情时代全球资源处于低成本洼地、亟须并购整合的重要战略窗口期。在这一方面,欧美国家及日本的企业与机构在全球的布局经验是值得借鉴的。为此,需要进一步释放社会活力、解放思想,实现深化改革与全面开放“由局部探索、破冰突围到系统集成、全面深化的转变,构建互利共赢、多元平衡、安全高效的开放型经济体系,不断增强我国国际经济合作和竞争新优势”,从而有利于开创新时代中国改革开放的新局面。

To this end, it is necessary to further release social vitality and emancipate the mind, to realize deepening reform and comprehensive opening up “from local exploration and breaking through ice to system integration and comprehensive deepening, to building a mutually beneficial and win-win, diversified and balanced, safe and efficient open economic system, to continuing to strengthen China’s international economic cooperation and new competitive advantages.”33 This is conducive to opening up a new situation for China’s reform and opening up in a new era.

总而言之,正如习近平总书记所强调:“历史从不等待一切犹豫者、观望者、懈怠者、软弱者。只有与历史同步伐、与时代共命运的人,才能赢得光明的未来。”战略机遇期永远属于时代的勇敢者、奋斗者与探索者。当然,在世界进入动荡变革期与战略机遇期的两期交汇下,中国发展中的机遇与挑战仍将长期存在。在当下关键时刻,不断保持进取之心,抓住机遇,准确识变、科学应变、主动求变,居安思危,保持战略定力,中国将一定能实现民族复兴的最终目标。

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Cite This Page

王文 (Wang Wen) (2022). "On the Strategic Opportunity Period in the New Era: Origin, Status Quo, and Future [论新时代的战略机遇期:源起、现状与未来]". Interpret: China, Original work published August 15, 2022, https://interpret.csis.org/translations/on-the-strategic-opportunity-period-in-the-new-era-origin-status-quo-and-future/

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