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Second Anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Effects and Implications


This report, written by a group of scholars at the Renmin University Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies led by Wang Wen, the institute’s president, takes stock of Russia’s war in Ukraine at its second anniversary. The chapters delve into geopolitical, economic, financial, and military dimensions of the war, and draw conclusions for China. They recommend Beijing strengthen technology self-reliance, enhance the security of its energy supplies, improve its diplomatic narratives, and take a more active role in global economic standards-setting.

Key takeaways
  • This report, written by scholars at the Renmin University Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, provides a comprehensive overview of the war in Ukraine at its second anniversary across financial, military, and geopolitical domains, and draws lessons for China.
  • The authors argue the war has substantially accelerated geopolitical fragmentation, creating unpredictability and uncertainty in the international system. Beyond this, they argue the war highlights the critical role private institutions will play in national technological competitiveness going forward, the necessity of a stable energy supply to national security, and rise of the Global South as a political force.
  • The authors call on Beijing to strengthen self-reliance in science and technology, take a more active role in global economic governance and standards-setting, ensure the resilience of its energy supply, improve and amplify its use of "cognitive warfare" globally, and develop flexible and diversified diplomatic approaches to states in Europe, ASEAN, and elsewhere.

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February 24, 2024 marks the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As the largest international event since the Cold War, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has and will have a profound impact on the evolution of the global landscape and changes in the global order. In the security field, more geopolitical conflicts have emerged following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the world has fallen into the most chaotic security situation it has seen since World War II. In the social field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a massive human tragedy and is the war with the highest number of casualties in Europe since the end of World War II. In the field of rules and regulations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has promoted the trend of “the weaponization of everything” in trade and finance, and the world has seen the most intense wave of sanctions and counter-sanctions in history. In the political field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the global confrontation between camps, and the world has experienced the largest division of national groups since the end of the Cold War. In the conceptual field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a catalyst for further global division, leading to a major ideological divergence in the post-Cold War world. In the economic field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the restructuring of the global supply chain, which has experienced the greatest turmoil since the end of World War II. In the field of science and technology (S&T), the Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the critical importance of advanced technology to national security, and set off the largest round of high-tech experimentation in human history. In the field of energy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fractured the global green transformation process, and climate governance faces the greatest delay since the 1970s. In the financial field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the accumulation of quantitative changes in the multipolarity of the international monetary landscape, and the global capital market has experienced the greatest turmoil since 2008. Finally, in terms of the global landscape, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the “changes unseen in a century” and the international community has entered an “era of great contention” not seen since the end of World War II.

2024 年 2 月 24 日是俄乌冲突爆发两周年。俄乌冲突作为冷战以来最大的国际事件,对于世界格局的演进和全球秩序的变化已经且将产生深远影响。在安全领域,俄乌冲突之后出现更多地缘冲突,世界陷入二战后最混乱的安全局势;在社会领域,俄乌冲突造成一场巨大的人类悲剧,是二战结束以来欧洲伤亡人数最多的战争;在规则领域,俄乌冲突助推贸易、金融“泛武器化”趋势,世界出现有史以来最激烈的制裁与反制裁潮;在政治领域,俄乌冲突加剧全球阵营化对抗,世界出现冷战结束以来最大的国家群体分裂;在观念领域,俄乌冲突成为全球进一步分裂的催化剂,诱发冷战后世界的思想大分流;在经济领域,俄乌冲突加速全球供应链重构,全球供应链遭遇二战结束以来的最大动荡;在科技领域,俄乌冲突凸显高科技对国家安全的至关重要性,成为人类有史以来最大规模的一轮高科技试验;在能源领域,俄乌冲突分化全球绿色转型进程,气候治理面临自 20 世纪 70 年代以来的最大拖延;在金融领域,俄乌冲突导致国际货币格局多极化的量变累积进程加快,全球资本市场出现 2008 年以来的最大动荡;最后,在全球格局上,俄乌冲突加速推进“百年变局”,国际社会进入二战结束以来从未见过的“大争之世”。

In the context of the above-mentioned influences, China must grasp the main characteristics and medium- and long-term trends of the changing times brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to be fully prepared to take appropriate responses both internationally and domestically. First, as the humanitarian crisis intensifies, China must actively participate in the construction of the international security order, and implement the Global Security Initiative on the premise of appropriate preparation for war. Second, with the world now divided into the Eastern and Western camps, China should adhere to true multilateralism and strengthen its flexibility in the diplomatic game. Third, victory in the “cognitive war” is intangible, and China must strengthen its ability to engage in “cognitive warfare” and improve its narrative capabilities. Fourth, the “Cold War-style economic structure” is emerging again, and China should take the initiative to formulate rules and an economic order to reshape economic globalization. Fifth, S&T strength has become a decisive factor in national security, and China must vigorously enhance the degree of independent S&T innovation, and promote S&T openness and cooperation. Sixth, the global green and low-carbon transformation will continue to be marginalized for a time, and China should enhance its energy resilience. Seventh, as the uncertainty facing the international financial market increases, China must accelerate the strengthening of its financial industry and build a financial superpower. Eighth, the confrontational, protracted, and cruel nature of the transformation of the international order has become increasingly apparent, and China must be prepared for a protracted war.


Part I:   Ten major effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict


1.      In the security field, more geopolitical tensions have emerged following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the world has fallen into the most chaotic security situation it has seen since World War II


Currently, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage, and there is still no end in sight. NATO, as an important Western force behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also moved away from its original arrogance in this war, exposing its true face as a “paper tiger.” On the one hand, it provided weapons and military assistance to Ukraine, but on the other hand, it showed hesitation and indecision on the battlefield, causing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to evolve in the direction of a long-term and protracted conflict, which has already spilled over to the Middle East and other regions.

目前,俄乌战火还在燃烧,至今为止,尚未看到结束的迹象。北约作为俄乌冲突背后的美西方重要力量,也在此次战争中一改往日嚣张气焰,暴露出了 “ 纸老虎 ” 的真面目,一边为乌克兰提供武器与军事援助,一边却在战场上表现出踌躇与犹豫,使得俄乌冲突正在向长期化、持久化方向演进,并且已经外溢到中东等多个地区。

First, the number of regional conflicts in the world has reached the highest level in 30 years, and the risk of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased significantly. According to the latest statistics from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) of the UK, the number of conflicts worldwide reached 183 in 2023, the highest total in nearly 30 years. From the civil wars in Syria, Libya, and Yemen to the military standoff between Azerbaijan and Armenia; from the tense state of alert in Venezuela and Guyana to the expansion of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, global tensions continue to escalate. According to the press office of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Georgia, which has long had tense relations with Russia, has participated in the training of Ukrainian soldiers. Ion Chicu, former Prime Minister of Moldova and Chairman of the Party of Development and Consolidation, said that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine has been trying to drag Moldova into the conflict in various ways. In December 2023, the EU officially started accession negotiations with Moldova and granted Georgia the status of an EU candidate country. The Russia-Ukraine conflict confronts the problem of spillover risks.

第一,全球地区冲突数量达三十年之最,俄乌冲突外溢风险显著加大。据英国国际战略研究所 (IISS) 的最新统计数据,2023 年全球冲突数量达 183 起,创近 30 年之最。从叙利亚、利比亚、也门内战到阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚陈兵对峙;从委内瑞拉和圭亚那的紧张戒备到美韩扩大联合军演规模,全球紧张局势持续升温。而据乌克兰国防部新闻处消息,同俄罗斯长期关系紧张的格鲁吉亚已参加培训乌克兰军人的活动,摩尔多瓦前总理、发展和统一党主席扬 • 基库则表示,自俄乌冲突爆发后,乌克兰一直试图以各种方式将摩尔多瓦拖入俄乌冲突。2023 年 12 月, 欧盟已正式与摩尔多瓦开启入盟谈判,并给予格鲁吉亚欧盟候选国地位。俄乌冲突面临外溢风险的问题。

Second, neutral countries have weakened or abandoned their neutrality, and military spending by major military powers and military blocs has hit record highs. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although Austria insisted on its neutrality, it agreed to join the EU’s “Strategic Compass” action plan and participate in the establishment of the EU’s 5,000-strong rapid reaction force. Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO, completely saying a final goodbye to “neutrality.” In addition, countries such as Switzerland and Ireland have also deviated from their traditional neutrality and participated in sanctions against Russia. In 2024, the United States once again raised its defense budget, this time to U.S. $886 billion, accounting for approximately 40% of global military spending and exceeding the total of the next nine countries behind the United States in defense spending. In 2024, NATO will also increase its military budget to €2.03 billion, an increase of 12% from 2023.

第二,中立国弱化中立地位或放弃中立,主要军事大国与军事集团军费开支创历史新高。奥地利在俄乌冲突爆发后,虽坚称中立,但同意加入欧盟 “ 战略指南针 ” 行动计划,参与建立欧盟 5000 人的快速反应部队;芬兰、瑞典申请加入北约,彻底告别 “ 中立 ”。此外,瑞士、爱尔兰等国也偏离传统中立地位,参与对俄制裁。2024 年,美国再次上调国防预算,以约占全球军费 40%的 8860 亿美元国防预算,超过美国之后 9 个国家总和。2024 年,北约也将军事预算上调至 20.3 亿欧元,较 2023 年增长 12%。

Third, the global nuclear security situation continues to deteriorate, with nuclear deterrence initiatives and nuclear blackmail becoming frequent occurrences. In terms of nuclear deterrence, as of January 2024, NATO has launched two large-scale nuclear deterrence military exercises. Since November 2009, the United States has deployed nuclear weapons to Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries under the nuclear sharing program. To counter Russia, Poland stated in June 2023 that it was actively seeking to join the nuclear sharing program, and was attempting to deploy U.S. nuclear weapons in Poland. Regarding nuclear blackmail, in October 2022, the United States released the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, which clearly identified nuclear weapons as a tool for advancing geopolitical goals. In October 2023, after Russia announced the withdrawal of its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the United States immediately announced that it had conducted a high-explosive test at its nuclear test site in southern Nevada, sparking concerns about a new round of nuclear testing competition among the world’s nuclear powers.

第三,全球核安全形势持续恶化,核威慑行动与核讹诈行为频发。核威慑方面,截至 2024 年 1 月,北约已发起两次大规模核威慑军演。 2009 年 11 月以来,美国在核共享计划下已将核武器部署至比利时、德国、意大利和荷兰等国。为对抗俄罗斯,2023 年 6 月波兰表示积极寻求加入核共享计划,试图将美国核武器部署到波兰境内。核讹诈上,2022 年 10 月,美国发布《2022年核态势审议报告》,明确将核武器作为推进地缘政治目标的工具。 2023 年 10 月,在俄罗斯宣布撤销批准《全面禁止核试验条约》后,美国随即宣布在内华达州南部核试验场进行了一次高爆实验,引发世界核大国新一轮核试验竞赛担忧。

2.      In the social field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a massive human tragedy and is the war with the highest number of casualties in Europe since the end of World War II.


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated social divisions, deepened ethnic conflicts, and increased population loss and refugee flows. The conflict has led to social conservatism and greater ethnic and religious tensions in both societies, and even to a resurgence of fascism and neo-Nazism. This rejection of different ideas, cultural conditions, and national feeling has exacerbated tensions and divisions in society as a whole.


First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the war with the heaviest casualties on the European continent since World War II. According to Russian media, citing a statement by the former Ukrainian Prosecutor General: Since the outbreak of the war, the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered 500,000 casualties and 72,000 serious injuries, with 6,000 troops captured. According to the latest data on the casualties of Russian armed forces released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, as of early January 2024, the Ukrainian armed forces had eliminated 365,100 enemies. Adding these figures together, the number of casualties on both sides of Russia and Ukraine has now exceeded 860,000. At the same time, the war has displaced millions of people, and the refugee crisis poses a significant threat to social stability in Europe. As of January 2024, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has displaced more than 10 million Ukrainians, who have become refugees. This caused the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. According to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 6 million Ukrainians are homeless within their own country, and more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including more than 2 million to Poland. In terms of civilian casualties, at least 10,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict, including more than 560 children. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that more than 18,500 civilians were injured.

第一,俄乌冲突是二战后欧洲大陆伤亡最惨重的一次战争。据俄罗斯媒体援引乌克兰前总检察长的表述:自战争爆发以来乌克兰武装部队阵亡人数已达 50 万人、重伤 7.2万、被俘 0.6 万。而乌克兰国防部公示的俄罗斯武装部队战损最新数据,截至 2024 年 1 月初,乌克兰武装力量消灭了 36.51 万名敌人,结合这一数字,俄乌双方阵亡人数如今已超过 86 万。同时,战争也使得数百万人流离失所,难民潮对欧洲的社会稳定造成很大威胁。截至 2024 年 1月,俄乌冲突已经造成 1000 多万乌克兰人流离失所、沦为难民。这为欧洲带来了二战以来最大的难民危机。联合国难民署数据显示,其中,有 600 多万乌克兰人在本国境内无家可归,有超过 300 多万乌克兰难民逃到邻国,其中有超过 200 万人逃到波兰。平民伤亡情况上,已有至少 1 万名平民于冲突中丧生,其中包括 560 多名儿童。联合国人权事务高级专员办事处的报告称,有超过 18500 名平民受伤。

Second, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again made ethnic issues a topic of concern in the international community. The two sides of the conflict are engaged in verbal accusations over whether “genocide” has been committed. The direct reason given for Russia’s military intervention is that the Ukrainian government committed the international crime of “genocide” in eastern Ukraine, seriously threatening the lives of Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians in the region. However, internationally, Ukraine also accused Russia of violating international law and committing international crimes such as genocide. To this day, neither side has given sufficient evidence to prove their accusations. The intention behind these accusations is to compete for the high ground in public opinion. Especially in modern warfare, manipulating public opinion is a very important stage of mobilization. Whoever manipulates public opinion can control the “international attitude,” win more cooperation and allies, and even change voter sentiment, leading to changes at the level of war decision-making.

第二,俄乌冲突使得种族问题再次成为国际社会的热点。冲突双方围绕着是否实行 “ 灭绝种族 ” 的行为展开了口诛笔伐,俄罗斯出兵的直接理由是乌克兰政府在乌东地区实施了 “ 灭绝种族 ” 国际罪行,严重威胁该地区俄罗斯人及亲俄乌克兰人生命安全。然而在国际上,乌克兰也同时指责俄方违反国际法并触犯灭绝种族等国际罪行。直至今日双方依旧没有充足证据证明己方指控。其背后的意图,是在争夺舆论制高点,尤其在现代战争中,操纵舆论是很重要的一个动员环节,谁操纵舆论就能把控“ 国际态度 ”,争取到更多的合作和盟友,甚至可以扭转选民情绪,导致战争决策层发生变化。

Third, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has a profound impact on the internal affairs and society of European countries. Whether to support Russia or Ukraine has basically become a choice of political stance. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not only a direct military confrontation between the two countries, but also a focus of games of national interest and conflicts among European countries. The impact of this incident has highlighted Europe’s divisions. EU member states “failed to reach an agreement” on a ban of Russian energy. Simply as regards the Russia-Ukraine issue itself, there are many differences within Europe on a series of questions including “whether to decouple from Russia,” “whether to speed up Ukraine’s accession to the EU,” and “the allocation of EU strategic autonomy funds.” In the coming period, as the war progresses and U.S. sanctions on Russia escalate, conflicts and divisions within Europe will continue, and this will be a core factor affecting the European security structure.

第三,俄乌冲突深刻影响着欧洲各国的内政和社会。支持俄罗斯还是支持乌克兰,这几乎成了一个政治立场选择题。俄乌冲突不单是俄乌双方的直接兵戎相见,也是欧洲各国利益博弈、矛盾迭起的焦点所在。欧洲的分歧也在这一事件冲击下凸显。欧盟成员国就对俄能源禁令 “ 谈不拢 ”;仅在俄乌问题上,欧洲内部就在 “ 是否对俄脱钩 ”“ 是否加快乌克兰加入欧盟的程序 ”“ 欧盟战略自主的资金分配 ” 等一系列问题上存在较多分歧。未来一段时间,随着战事的进展以及美国对俄制裁的升级,欧洲内部的矛盾及分化还将继续,而这将会是影响欧洲安全结构的一个核心动因。

3.      In the field of rules and regulations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has promoted the trend of “the weaponization of everything” in trade and finance, and the world has seen the most intense wave of sanctions and counter-sanctions in history.


The two-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to intensified confrontation among global blocs. The United States and the West have imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, weaponizing finance, trade, and science and technology. The polarization of the global landscape is accelerating, the confrontation between the Global South and the Global North is intensifying, and there is a clear trend of “rise of the East and decline of the West” between the Global East and the Global West. More and more developing countries are clamoring to join the BRICS. There is an increased confrontation between developed countries and developing countries.

俄乌冲突两年带来全球阵营对抗博弈加剧,美西方全面对俄制裁,金融武器化、贸易武器化、科技武器化。全球格局加速分化,全球南方与全球北方对阵加剧,全球东方与全球西方的 “ 东升西降 ” 趋势明显。发展中国家纷纷要求加入金砖国家。发达国家与发展中国家更加对阵。

The United States and Europe have imposed historically unprecedented sanctions on Russia, and the backlash to these sanctions and counter-sanctions has intensified. From February 24 to 28, 2022, the United States and Europe launched unprecedented sanctions against Russia, including a financial nuclear bomb. The sanctions were unprecedented in terms of intensity, breadth, and depth. All Russian banks with foreign operations were removed from the SWIFT system. The United States, Europe, and other Western countries have imposed about 20,000 sanctions on Russia, covering almost everything from economy to trade, from investment to finance, from S&T to military, and from Tchaikovsky to cats. They have imposed export controls, financial sanctions, and energy embargoes on Russia. However, the countries of the BRICS and Global South, including India and China, have not taken sanctions against Russia.

美欧对俄罗斯实施了空前的史诗级制裁,制裁反噬与反制裁加剧。 2022 年 2 月 24 日至 28 日,美欧对俄罗斯抛出金融核弹等空前制裁,制裁力度之大、领域之广、程度之深前所未有。将俄罗斯所有对外银行全部剔除 SWIFT。美欧等西方国家对俄罗斯制裁约 2 万项,从经济到贸易,从投资到金融,从科技到军事,从柴可夫斯基到猫几乎无所不包。对俄实施出口管制、金融制裁、能源禁运。而包括印度、中国等金砖国家和全球南方国家并未对俄罗斯采取制裁措施。

On the one hand, the weaponization of finance will result in the intensification of de-dollarization. The United States has not only imposed sanctions on Russia’s central bank, Ministry of Finance, and other sovereign institutions, but also on all Russian state-owned enterprises, and has placed almost complete sanctions on Putin, his children, senior officials, businessmen, and bankers, freezing their overseas funds and assets. Neutral Switzerland froze Russian funds. Russia was kicked out of SWIFT and subjected to long-arm jurisdiction. Russia imposed counter-sanctions, requiring natural gas imports by 48 unfriendly countries, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, to be settled in rubles. Global de-dollarization accelerated, with Russia sharply reducing reserves of dollars, pounds, and euros, while increasing holdings of gold and RMB.

一方面,金融武器化,结局是去美元化加剧。美国不仅制裁了俄罗斯的央行、财政部等主权性质的机构,而且制裁了俄罗斯所有央企,将普京及子女、高官、商人、银行家几乎全制裁,冻结其海外资金和资产。中立国瑞士冻结俄资金。踢出 SWIFT 并实施长臂管辖。俄实施反制裁,对美欧日等 48 个不友好国家进口天然气要求用卢布结算,全球去美元化加速,锐减美元、英镑、欧元储备,增持黄金和人民币。

On the other hand, the weaponization of trade has resulted in high inflation, high debt, and low growth in the United States and Europe. Not only did U.S. and European companies withdraw from Russia, but they also restricted the import and export of Russian products, especially oil and gas products, which are the lifeline of Russia’s economy, going so far as to blow up several Nord Stream pipelines. Europe was forced to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) at twice the price. The United States imposed a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum and all its derivatives. All U.S. and Western multinational corporations have withdrawn from Russia. The sanctions have formed an encirclement against Russia, while tariff and non-tariff barriers against Russia have increased. However, this did not affect Russia’s exports to other countries. Instead, it pushed up inflation in Europe and the United States, to levels not seen in 40 years. Inflation in the U.S. soared to 9.1%, and Europe saw double-digit inflation.

另一方面,贸易武器化,结果美欧高通胀高债务低增长。美欧企业不仅撤离俄罗斯,而且限制对俄产品进出口,特别是涉及俄罗斯经济命脉的油气产品,甚至多条北溪管道被炸毁,欧洲被迫购买价格翻倍的美国液化天然气(LNG)。美对俄的铝及所有衍生品征收 200%的关税。美西方的跨国企业全部撤离俄罗斯。制裁形成对俄包围圈,提高对俄关税壁垒和非关税壁垒。但并未影响俄出口到其他国家,反而推升欧美 40 年不遇高通胀,美飙升 9.1%,欧洲双位数高通胀。

In short, the sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe, and Japan on Russia did not achieve the expected results, but instead brought a backlash and counter-sanctions. The world is in disorder, with security, finance, and S&T in complete disarray. Trade is in disorder, inflation is rampant, with inflation and debt at highs not seen in 40 years, and supply chains are broken or disrupted.


4.      In the political field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the confrontation between global blocs, with the world experiencing the most widespread division into groups of countries since the end of the Cold War.


The primary impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on world politics has been the return of realist “hard politics,” and the zero-sum security dilemma will plague all countries for a long time to come. In an exclusive interview with the British magazine The Spectator in 2022, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said, “the issue of war aims needed to be faced before the momentum of war made it politically unmanageable.” However, it is obvious that the current world political situation has been “led astray” by the momentum of the war, and the world is now seeing the most widespread division into groups of countries since the end of the Cold War. According to the voting results of the six resolutions adopted by the 11th Emergency Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly, the overall rate of support for Russia was 29% and the rate of opposition was 65%. This shows a preliminary trend toward division into groups of countries has already formed.

俄乌冲突对世界政治的首要冲击,是现实主义 “ 硬核政治 ” 回归,安全上的零和博弈困境将长时间困扰各国。美国前国务卿亨利 · 基辛格在 2022 年接受英国《旁观者》杂志(The Spectator) 专访时表示,“ 在战争势头使政治局势无法控制之前,需要面对战争目标的问题”,但很明显,当前世界政治局势已经被战争势头“ 带偏”,世界出现冷战结束以来最大的国家群体分裂。根据联合国大会第十一届紧急特别会议通过的六次决议投票情况,对俄罗斯的整体支持率为 29%,反对率为 65%,已经形成国家群体分裂的初步趋势。

On the one hand, America’s “small circle” and alliance politics are tearing the world apart. The world is still in the “Leviathan era” dominated by realist power politics, and the “law of the jungle” is still the underlying logic of the operation of international politics. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is essentially a confrontation between Russia on the one hand and the United States and NATO on the other over the European security order and geostrategic interests. At the same time, the United States has strengthened its strategic deployment of allies around China through NATO’s eastward expansion and Asia-Pacific orientation, and has also initiated a trend of comprehensive competition with China. A trend of confrontation between the blocs of the Global East and West has reared its head.

一方面,美国的 “ 小圈子 ” 与盟友政治正在撕裂世界。世界仍处在由现实主义的权力政治主宰的 “ 利维坦时代”,“ 丛林法则” 依然是国际政治运行的底层逻辑。俄乌冲突实质为俄罗斯与美国、北约之间关于欧洲安全秩序和地缘战略利益的对抗。同时,美国通过北约东扩、北约亚太化,在中国周边加强盟友战略部署,也开启对华的全面竞争之势,全球东西方阵营对抗有抬头之势。

On the other hand, a new situation of confrontation between blocs is taking shape. According to the vote totals of the six UN resolutions (Table 1), the most votes cast against Russia was 143, accounting for 74% of the total number of UN member states. However, this level of opposition was not unchanging across all resolutions, and the range of votes against Russia was wide. This situation shows that the global blocs are changing. The new blocs are different from the “capitalist-socialist binary opposition” during the Cold War. Instead, the groups are undergoing a “dynamic transformation” based on a certain degree of strategic autonomy among countries. This trend adds uncertainty and unpredictability to the international political situation.

另一方面,新的阵营对抗态势正在形成。根据联合国六次决议情况(表 1),俄罗斯的最高反对票数达 143 票,占联合国会员国总数的 74%,但并非一成不变,反对票数区间跨度大。这一情况表明,全球阵营正在发生变化,新阵营不同于冷战时期的“ 资社二元对立”,而是各国在一定程度战略自主基础上的 “ 动态转换”,这一趋势为国际政治局势增添了不确定性和难以预判性。

Table 1    Voting results for the six resolutions of the 11th Emergency Special Session of the UN General Assembly

表 1 联合国大会第十一届紧急特别会议六次决议投票情况

Source: United Nations official website, table created by Chongyang Institute, Renmin University

5.      In the conceptual field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a catalyst for further global division, leading to a major ideological divergence in the post-Cold War world


The great changes unseen in a century are accelerating, and the game among major powers has entered an era with core values as the fulcrum. The most significant feature of the game in the conceptual field is that it involves politics internally and manifests itself through culture externally. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the game of values between major powers, making the confrontation in the conceptual field even more intense. It has also become a catalyst for further global division.


Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and the West have imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia in various fields, including politics, military, economy, culture, and sports. This removed all masks and disguises, breaking a series of so-called “golden rules” of Western democratic countries: The sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on the private property of Russian citizens violate the principle of the “inviolability of private property” established in the Declaration of Human Rights and Western constitutions. Google, which has always flaunted its “don’t be evil” mantra, terminated all services in Russia and provided high-definition maps of Russian military deployments to Ukraine. Traditionally neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland are no longer neutral and have joined the NATO camp… This series of nakedly confrontational behaviors has spurred people to rethink the Western concepts that go by the names “human rights,” “democracy,” and “freedom.” Global ideological trends have experienced the most significant divergence since the end of the Cold War.

俄乌冲突爆发以来,美西方从政治、军事、经济、文化、体育等各个领域全面对俄罗斯进行制裁,揭下了一切面具和伪装,打破了一系列西方民主国家所谓的 “ 玉律金科 ”:美西方对俄罗斯公民私人财产的制裁打破了《人权宣言》和西方宪法确定的 “ 私人财产不可侵犯 ”原则;一向标榜自己 “ 不作恶 ” 价值观的谷歌终止在俄罗斯的所有服务,并向乌克兰提供俄罗斯高清军力部署地图;瑞典、芬兰等传统中立国也不再中立,纷纷加入北约阵营……一系列赤裸裸的对抗行为引发人们对西方所谓人权、民主、自由观念的大反思,世界思潮出现自冷战结束以来最显著的大分流。

At the same time, influenced by the return of Cold War thinking and the reemergence of political blocks, an unprecedented ideological struggle is taking place on a global scale. Whether in European and North American countries, or in emerging market countries such as China, India, and Vietnam, or Latin American countries such as Argentina, the rise of conservatism, nationalism, populism, protectionism, and unilateralism, is confronting countries with a major split in social thought, with some becoming more conservative and others more open. Governments, social groups, and ordinary people are all thinking deeply about future development paths. On the one hand, to a certain extent, conservatism and nationalism have safeguarded national interests and national dignity; but on the other hand, the energy and food crises resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to higher levels of global inflation. The economies of European countries have been hit especially hard, and the political tendency of a “rightward turn” in various countries has intensified. Society has become more divided due to issues such as refugees and immigration, people’s livelihood and employment, and gun violence. Right-wing populism has also exacerbated tensions in international relations and the difficulties of global cooperation.

同时,受冷战思潮回流和政治阵营化的影响,全球正在发生一场空前绝后的思想斗争。无论是欧美国家,还是中国、印度、越南等新兴市场国家以及以阿根廷为代表的拉美国家,在保守主义、民族主义、民粹主义、保护主义、单边主义抬头下,国家内部都在面临着更趋保守或更趋开放的社会思潮大分流。各国政府、社会团体以及普通民众都在对未来的发展道路进行深刻的思考。一方面,保守主义和民族主义在一定程度上维护了国家利益和民族尊严;但另一方面,俄乌冲突衍生出的能源、粮食危机导致全球通胀水平升高,尤其是欧洲各国经济受到冲击,各国政治上“ 向右转 ”倾向加剧,社会也因难民移民、民生就业、枪支暴力等问题变得更加撕裂,右倾化的民粹主义也加剧了国际关系的紧张和全球合作的困境。

6.      In the economic field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the restructuring of the global supply chain, and the global supply chain has experienced the greatest turmoil since the end of World War II


The disruption of supply chains for a variety of products such as food, energy, and semiconductors resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected many countries, prompting an accelerated reorganization of the global industrial division of labor. Shortened supply chains, decentralization, localization, regionalization, and the emergence of blocs in line with security requirements have become the trends in the adjustments to global production chains and supply chains.


First, the least developed countries have suffered from food shocks. Since both Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of grain and cooking oil products such as wheat, barley, corn, and vegetable oil, the export disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have further exacerbated the problem of hunger in countries that are highly dependent on wheat imports, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Syria. In particular, Ukraine’s exports plummeted by 30% in 2022. The region’s cereal exports are critical to the food security of African economies such as Ethiopia, and a 14.9% drop in cereal exports has forced these economies to adjust their purchasing patterns. Data from the United Nations World Food Programme shows that 60% of all people at risk of hunger live in areas affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused all countries to worry about their food supplies. Sixteen countries including India have begun to impose export restrictions on food, further exacerbating the global food crisis.

第一,最不发达国家遭受粮食冲击。由于俄罗斯和乌克兰是小麦、大麦、玉米以及植物油等粮油产品的重要出口国,俄乌冲突导致的出口中断使阿富汗、埃塞俄比亚和叙利亚等高度依赖小麦进口的国家饥饿状况进一步恶化,其中,乌克兰的出口在 2022 年暴跌了 30%。该地区的谷物出口对埃塞俄比亚等非洲经济体的粮食安全关重要,由于下降了 14.9%,迫使这些经济体调整了采购模式。联合国世界粮食计划署数据显示,全球 60% 的饥饿人口都生活在受俄乌冲突影响的地区。同时,俄乌冲突引发各国对粮食供给的担忧,印度等 16 个国家开始对粮食实行出口限制,进一步加剧了全球粮食危机。

Second, energy prices are fluctuating dramatically, the supply structure has been impacted, and the demand structure is changing dramatically. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, allies including Europe, the United States, Britain, and Japan jointly imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, including in the energy sector. This caused Europe’s energy shortfall to gradually grow and energy prices to soar. The backlash effect in response to sanctions has overwhelmed the European economy. Specifically, in the month when the Nord Stream pipeline was bombed, the U.S. natural gas exports to Europe accounted for 70% of its total natural gas exports, and the average price of natural gas in Europe was more than seven times higher than the spot price of natural gas in the United States. Other data showed that the EU’s natural gas imports from Russia in 2022 decreased by nearly 25% year-on-year, and European electricity contract prices nearly tripled at one point.

第二,能源价格剧烈波动,供给结构受到冲击,需求结构发生巨变。俄乌冲突爆发后,欧、美、英、日等盟友一起对俄罗斯实施包括能源领域在内的多轮制裁,致使欧洲能源缺口逐渐扩大,能源价格飙升,制裁引发的反噬效应令欧洲经济不堪重负。其中,“ 北溪 ” 管道被炸当月,美国对欧洲天然气出口量已占其天然气总出口量的 70%,而欧洲天然气均价是美国天然气现货价格的七倍多。另有数据显示,2022 年欧盟从俄罗斯进口天然气量同比减少近两成半,欧洲电力合约价更一度上涨近 3 倍。

Third, the manufacturing supply system has been disrupted and global trade has suffered. Rare metals such as nickel, titanium, and palladium are essential and critical upstream materials for manufacturing production in industries such as aviation, automotive, chemical, and equipment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to an imbalance in the supply of relevant metal raw materials, and prices have continued to rise. Nickel provides a good example. In early March 2022, the price of metallic nickel exceeded U.S. $100,000 per ton, a record high. This had a severe impact on multinational companies that rely on cross-border supply chains. For example, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Boeing, and Airbus had to shutter and move out of their factories in the two countries. As a result, trade growth around the world has slowed somewhat. According to the Asian Development Bank’s estimates, if 10% to 20% of overseas supply chains are transferred and repatriated, global trade is estimated to shrink by 13% to 22%. Even more worrying, with the advent of an era of great contention, the United States, Europe, and other Western countries will weaponize strategic materials such as food, energy, and precious metals, and other powerful countries will inevitably follow suit, which will further undermine the global supply system.

第三,制造业供应体系紊乱,全球贸易受损。镍、钛、钯等稀有金属是航空、汽车、化工、装备等制造业生产必不可少的上游关键材料,俄乌冲突导致相关金属原材料供给失衡,价格持续上涨。以镍为例,2022 年 3 月初金属镍价格突破每吨 10 万美元,创历史新高,这严重打击了依赖跨境供应链的跨国企业,如大众、宝马、梅赛德斯、波音、空客等不得不关闭、搬离位于两国的工厂。世界各地的贸易增速也因此有所放缓。据亚行测算,如果 10%-20% 的海外供应链被转包回流,全球贸易估计将收缩 13%-22%。最令人担忧的是,随着大争之世的到来,美欧等西方国家把粮食、能源和贵金属等战略物资武器化,其他有实力的国家也难免效仿,这将进一步崩坏全球供应体系。

7.      In the field of S&T, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the vital importance of advanced technology to national security, and set off the largest round of high-tech experimentation in human history


At present, global S&T development has left the previous era of cooperation to enter an era of competition. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the West to accelerate its “small yard, high fence” strategy. The United States has quickly implemented “scientific research decoupling” from Russia, attempting to use its technological advantages to exclude Russia from the core global scientific research system. More importantly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further strengthened the application of cutting-edge technology in new types of warfare. Military strength has become a key area of S&T competition. The development of military S&T has also further highlighted the impact of technology on the safeguarding of national security.

当下,全球科技发展已经由过去的合作时代跨入了竞争时代。俄乌冲突使得西方加速推进 “ 小院高墙 ” 战略,美国迅速实施对俄 “ 科研脱钩 ”,企图利用科技优势将俄罗斯排除在全球科研核心体系以外。更为关键的是,俄乌冲突进一步强化了尖端技术在新型作战中的应用,军事实力成为科技比拼的重点领域,军事科技的发展也更加凸显了技术对于维护国家安全的影响。

First, advanced S&T has ushered in a new period of military change, causing turmoil in the global landscape. A new generation of technologies, exemplified by AI and quantum technology, have been more widely used in modern warfare, bringing about fundamental changes in military offensive and defensive capabilities. In the context of the informatization and intelligentization of warfare, the combat features of “miniaturization” and “concealment” have enhanced offensive power to a certain extent, becoming a potentially disruptive factor for the global security situation. Traditional national security strategies are expected to receive a more in-depth implementation under the impetus of advanced S&T.

第一,高科技开启新一轮军事周期,引发全球局势动荡。以人工智能、量子技术为代表的新一代技术被更广泛地应用到现代战争之中,使得军事攻防力量发生了根本性变化。在信息化、智能化作战下,“ 小型化 ”“ 隐蔽化 ” 的作战特点使得进攻方力量在某种程度上得到增强,成为扰动世界安全局势的潜在因素,传统国家安全战略在高科技推动下有望得以深入实施。

Second, private technology institutions have opened up new battlefields and become an important force for maintaining national security. On the high-tech battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is no longer just a confrontation of the actions of the governments of different countries, but also a comprehensive confrontation of technological strength involving private institutions. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, many U.S. and even Western high-tech companies have become combat tools of the U.S. government and military, directly participating in the war “on the ground.” For example, the Starlink project developed by SpaceX is an important means by which Ukraine obtains combat intelligence information and carries out precision combat strikes. Several American Internet giants have stopped providing services to Russian users. Civilian UAVs are directly used in combat and have become an important supplementary force in combat operations. At present, OpenAI has removed its ban on “military and war” applications, which means that the United States’ attitude towards the application of ChatGPT in the military field is changing.

第二,私人技术机构开辟新战场,成为维护国家安全的重要力量。在俄乌冲突的高科技战场中,已经不仅是国与国之间政府行为的对抗,更是私人机构参与下的全面技术实力对抗。俄乌冲突中,多家美国乃至西方高科技企业成为美国政府和军方的作战工具,直接 “ 下场 ” 参与战争。例如,SpaceX 公司研发的 “ 星链 ” 计划被用于乌克兰获取战争情报信息、精准作战打击的重要手段。多家美国互联网巨头停止向俄罗斯用户提供服务。民用无人机更是被直接应用于战斗,成为作战的重要补充力量。当下,OpenAI 删除 “ 军事和战争 ” 禁令,意味着美国对 ChatGPT 在军事领域的应用态度正在发生变化。

As Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, put it, “Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish.” The Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights the nationalistic nature of technology. The development of advanced S&T and the behavior of high-tech companies in war will profoundly affect the world’s geopolitical trends. This will become a key variable in reshaping the world order in the context of changes unseen in a century, and will also become an important force in maintaining national security.

正如欧洲对外关系委员会主任马克· 伦纳德(Mark Leonard)所言, “ 现在权力是通过控制人、货物、金钱和数据的流动,以及通过利用技术创造的联系来定义。” 俄乌冲突凸显了技术的民族主义特征,高科技的发展及高科技公司在战争中的行为将深刻影响着世界地缘走势格局,成为百年变局下重塑世界秩序的关键变量,也将成为维护国家安全的重要力量。

8.      In the field of energy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fractured the global green transformation process, and climate governance faces the greatest delays since the 1970s

八、在能源领域,俄乌冲突分化全球绿色转型进程,气候治理面临自 20 世纪 70 年代以来的最大拖延

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world lacked the motivation to jointly address climate change. In the 18 months after the conflict, a total of 150 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions were generated. Russia is one of the world’s most important energy exporters, and Ukraine is one of the key channels for natural gas pipelines. As tensions escalate, the world’s, and especially Europe’s, dependence on fossil fuels makes the promotion of clean energy more difficult.

俄乌冲突后,全球缺乏共同应对气候变化的动力,冲突发生 18 个月后累计造成了 1.5 亿吨二氧化碳排放。俄罗斯是全球重要的能源出口国,而乌克兰则是天然气输送管道的关键通道之一,随着紧张局势的加剧,全球尤其是欧洲对化石能源的依赖性使得清洁能源的推动变得更加困难。

In the first half of 2022, the world faced a global energy supply shortage. At that time, 38% of the EU’s natural gas and 27% of its oil supplies came from Russia. Oil prices broke through historical highs, causing Europe to quickly fall into an energy supply crisis. This imposed huge costs on global energy consumers and quickly triggered a series of chain reactions in international finance, cross-border trade, and international relations. The market pessimism caused by the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted the EU’s pace of emission reduction. Some European countries pushed back their renewable energy development targets for a time and were unable to break away from their dependence on fossil fuels. This, in turn, directly affected the global green development landscape and progress toward sustainable development, slowing down the normal progress to the target of carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. In 2023, UN Secretary-General Guterres repeatedly stated: “Humanity has opened the gates to hell, and climate action is urgent,” and warned that “world leaders must break the vicious cycle of global warming.”

2022 年上半年,全球能源供应短缺爆发,欧盟当时有 38% 的天然气以及 27% 的石油供应来自于俄罗斯,油价突破历史新高,令欧洲迅速陷入了能源供应困境,给全球能源消费者带来了巨大成本,并迅速带动了国际金融、跨国贸易、国际关系等方面的一系列连锁反应。俄乌冲突引发的能源危机所产生的市场悲观情绪扰乱了欧盟的减排节奏,欧洲部分国家一度减缓可再生能源发展目标,无法摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,进而直接影响了全球绿色发展格局和可持续发展进程,拖慢了 21 世纪中叶碳中和目标的正常进度。2023 年,联合国秘书长古特雷斯多次提出:“ 人类打开了通往地狱的大门,采取气候行动迫在眉睫 ”,并警告 “ 世界领导人必须打破全球变暖恶性循环 ”。

Since the first United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in 1972, global climate governance has achieved many stage-by-stage results, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only slowed down the energy transition process, but has also intensified the lack of trust in climate cooperation between countries. Developing countries are increasingly wary that some developed countries in Europe and the United States are luring China and other developing countries into a new transition trap by accelerating the phasing-out of fossil fuels. Developed countries are also unwilling to assume climate governance responsibilities and are attempting to coerce developing countries into assuming greater responsibilities. The global greening process and green sustainable development goals have encountered serious challenges. Geopolitical tensions may also lead some countries to prioritize economics and security over environmental concerns, reducing their investment in and commitment to green transformation.

自 1972 年首届联合国人类环境会议召开以来,全球气候治理先后取得了《联合国气候变化框架公约》、《京都议定书》、《巴黎协定》等多项阶段性成果,但俄乌冲突不仅减缓了能源转型进程,也加剧了国家之间气候合作的不信任感,发展中国家越来越警惕目前欧美部分发达国家通过加快化石燃料淘汰进度来诱导中国等发展中国家陷入新的转型困境,而发达国家也不愿承担气候治理责任,意图胁迫发展中国家承担更多责任,全球绿色进程与绿色可持续发展目标遭遇严重挑战。地缘政治紧张局势还可能导致一些国家将经济和安全优先于环境问题,降低对绿色转型的投资和承诺。

9.      In the financial field, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the accumulation of quantitative changes in the multipolarity of the international monetary landscape, and the global capital market has experienced the greatest turmoil since 2008

九、在金融领域,俄乌冲突导致国际货币格局多极化的量变累积进程加快,全球资本市场出现 2008 年以来的最大动荡

First, the accumulation of quantitative changes in the multipolarization of the international monetary structure is accelerating, and the competition among secondary currencies below the U.S. dollar is accelerating. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the formation of global blocs and economic decoupling. This, accompanied by the United States’ intensification of the weaponization of economic and financial sanctions, is increasing the motivation for global emerging markets to de-dollarize. To date, at least 70 countries have begun efforts to de-dollarize, including accelerating the construction of cross-border payment systems, exploring regional currency alliances, settling cross-border trade in local currencies, and vigorously developing central bank digital currencies. Some people have calculated that, currently, about 30% of countries face the potential threat of sanctions from the West, far higher than the 10% in the 1990s. However, the United States’ strong level of financial development, S&T innovation, military strength, and governance capacities mean that the foundation of the dollar’s hegemony remains solid. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet had a fundamental impact on the competitive landscape in the international monetary system. From 2021 to 2023, the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves remained stable at nearly 60%, and the international status of the U.S. dollar as the world’s main currency remained stable. Although there has yet been no qualitative change, the speed of quantitative changes is accelerating. Competition has accelerated among the secondary currencies below the dollar. The share of the euro and some other traditional second-tier currencies in the Euro system has declined, with the euro’s share of global reserves falling by about 1 percentage point, mainly replaced by third-tier small mature economies and emerging market currencies. The challenges faced by traditional secondary currencies have increased.

第一,国际货币格局多极化的量变累积进程加快,美元以下的二级货币层级竞争加速。俄乌冲突导致全球阵营化、经济脱钩断链提速,加之美国加强了经济和金融制裁的武器化,增加了全球新兴市场去美元化的动机。截至目前至少有大约 70 个国家开始了去美元化的努力,包括加快建设跨境支付系统,探索区域性货币联盟,跨境贸易以本币结算,大力发展央行数字货币等方式。有人测算,目前有大约 30% 的国家面临来自西方制裁的潜在威胁,远高于 1990 年代的 10%,但美国强大的金融发展水平、科技创新、军事实力和治理能力决定了美元霸权的根基依然深厚。俄乌冲突对国际货币体系竞争格局尚未产生根本冲击。从 2021 年到 2023 年,美元储备的份额稳定在近 60% 的水平,美元主要货币功能的国际地位依然稳定。虽然质变尚未出现,但量变的速度在加快。在美元以下的二级货币层级,竞争有所加速。欧元以及欧元体系中一些传统二线货币份额下降,其中欧元储备的全球份额下降约 1 个百分点,主要为第三级小型成熟经济体和新兴市场货币所替代,传统二级货币面临的挑战加大。

Second, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated turbulence in international financial markets. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty in the international economic and political outlook. The conflict directly caused a surge in energy and food prices. The U.S. CPI in June 2022 reached 9.1%, a 40-year high, forcing the United States to sharply raise interest rates, which became one of the causes of the European and U.S. banking crisis in 2023. Global investors regard geopolitical risk as an important risk source. Geopolitical risks are hard to predict and can have catastrophic effects on financial markets, leading to a sharp rise in risk aversion in global financial markets and exacerbating turbulence in international financial markets. In 2022, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded their largest full-year declines since the global financial crisis in 2008. At the same time, the high interest rates on the U.S. dollar attracted global capital to flow back to the United States, increasing the pressure of capital outflows on emerging economies and exacerbating debt crises in middle- and low-income developing countries.

第二,俄乌冲突加剧国际金融市场动荡。俄乌冲突加大国际经济、政治前景的不确定性。冲突直接引发能源、粮食价格暴涨,美国 2022年 6 月的 CPI 高达 9.1%,创下 40年来新高,迫使美国陡峭加息,成为 2023 年欧美银行业危机的诱因之一。全球投资者将地缘政治风险作为一项重要的风险来源。地缘政治风险的可预测性较低,且对金融市场可能产生灾难性影响,导致全球金融市场避险情绪大幅上升,加剧了国际金融市场动荡。2022 年美国三大股指均创下 2008 年全球金融危机以来全年最大跌幅。同时美元高利率吸引全球资本回流美国,加大新兴经济体资本外流压力,加剧中低收入发展中国家的债务危机。

10.  In terms of the global landscape, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the “changes unseen in a century” and the international community has entered an “era of great contention” not seen since the end of World War II


The Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the most significant international event since the Cold War, has become the most important “fuse” and “catalyst” for the evolution of the global landscape and world order in the 21st century, triggering regional conflicts in multiple places, hot wars in the Middle East, civil unrest in Africa, and the emergence of hot spots in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. It has lifted the curtain on an “era of great contention.”

俄乌冲突作为冷战以来最大的国际事件,已成为二十一世纪全球格局、秩序演进最重要的“ 导火索 ”与 “ 催化剂 ”,诱发地区冲突多点开花,中东热战,非洲内乱,亚太、拉美也热点突起。“ 大争之世 ” 拉开帷幕。

First, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international governance mechanisms such as the United Nations and the G20 have fallen into an unprecedented state of disorder. Some multilateral mechanisms have even been reduced to the status of “existing in name only” and have basically become a forum for playing games with public opinion rather than a platform for governance. The mechanisms for the unified and coordinated handling of international issues have failed, and the ability of various parties to resolve regional conflicts through diplomatic means has been greatly reduced. This has led to international chaos in the context of the loosening, disintegration, and disorder of the international order. The checks and balances mechanisms and power vacuum also make regional forces more willing to take action to resolve issues through force.

首先,俄乌冲突爆发后,联合国、 G20 等国际治理机制进入前所未有的失调状态。有些多边机制甚至已经 “ 名存实亡 ”,几乎成为舆论博弈场而非治理平台。统一协调处理国际问题的机制失灵,各方通过外交手段解决地区冲突的能力大减,导致国际秩序松动、瓦解与失序下的国际乱局。制衡机制与权力的真空也使得区域势力更愿选择亲自出马,武力解决问题。

Second, in addition to widening the gap between the Global North and Global South in the short term, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also brought about a “strategic awakening” in the Global South, becoming a stepping stone for the evolution of the global landscape. The United States has once again “reaped the world’s harvest” by taking advantage of the Ukrainian crisis, becoming the biggest winner in the conflict. Under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis, trade ties between Russia and Europe have rapidly decreased, and Europe has been forced to increase its dependence on the United States, which is beneficial to the U.S. economy. First, U.S. energy exports to Europe have surged, with U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to Europe rising from 2 million tons in 2018 to 50 million tons in 2023. Second, military groups such as NATO have increased needs for military defense, generating considerable profits for the U.S. military-industrial complex. U.S. arms sales to foreign countries in 2023 increased by 16% compared to 2022, with direct government-negotiated sales surging by 56%. Third, the United States bought up Ukrainian assets in the name of military aid, allowing U.S. financial interest groups to expand. These factors have offset the negative economic impact caused by interest rate hikes in the United States, forming a potential driving force for U.S. economic growth and reversing the U.S. economic downturn to a certain extent in the short term. Although this conflict has widened the gap between the Global North and Global South, making the United States the biggest winner from the crisis in the short term, the Ukrainian crisis has also prompted more countries to seek strategic autonomy and independence. The collective rise of the Global South and the awakening of a consciousness of independence will constitute an important driving force for the “rise of the East and decline of the West” in the context of changes unseen in a century. The post-Cold War international order dominated by the United States is undergoing a comprehensive restructuring, and the world is transforming from a strongly unipolar world to a multipolar world. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, German Chancellor Scholz used the term “turning point of history” (Zeitenwende) to summarize the great changes in the global landscape, and proposed that “in this new multipolar world, different countries and governments are fighting for power and influence,” and that avoiding a “new Cold War” has become a top priority.

其次,俄乌冲突短期内扩大了全球南北方的差距,但也带来了全球南方的“战略觉醒”,成为全球格局演进的垫脚石。美国借乌克兰危机再次 “ 收割全球 ”,成为冲突下的最大赢家。在乌克兰危机的影响之下,俄欧贸易联系迅速减少,欧洲被迫增加对美国的依赖,利好美国经济。一是美国对欧洲的能源出口激增,美对欧液化天然气出口量从 2018 年的二百万吨上升到2023 年的五千万吨。二是以北约集团为代表的军事集团增加了军事防御需求,为美国军工复合体带来可观的利润。2023 年美对外军售较 2022 年增长 16%,其中政府直接谈判销售额激增 56%。三是美国以军事援助之名抄底乌克兰资产,美国金融利益集团得以扩张。这些因素对美国因加息导致的经济负面影响构成对冲,形成美国经济增长的潜在动力,短期内在一定程度上逆转了美国经济颓势。虽然这次冲突拉大了南北差距,使得美国短期内成为危机下的最大赢家,但是乌克兰危机促使更多的国家寻求战略自主与独立,全球南方的群体性崛起与独立意识的觉醒,将构成百年变局下“东升西降”的重要推动力量。冷战后以美国占据主导地位的国际秩序正经历全面重构,世界由强单极向多极转换;俄乌冲突爆发后,德国总理朔尔茨也用 “ 时代转折点 “(Zeitenwende)来概括全球格局之巨变,提出 “ 在这个全新的多极世界中,不同的国家和政府都在为权力和影响力而 ”,避免 “ 新冷战 ”成为重中之重。

Under such a global trend, the disputes among major powers and the game for the dominance of the world order have gradually moved from a “secret struggle” to an “open fight.” With the failure of existing international coordination and governance mechanisms, the era of multipolarization in a world full of uncertainty has begun. This situation presents both challenges and opportunities.


Part II: Eight major lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict


1.      As the humanitarian crisis intensifies, China must actively participate in the construction of the international security order and implement the Global Security Initiative on the premise of appropriate preparation for war


In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China must not only make an appropriate show of strength and make clear the one-China principle and bottom line to the international community, but also avoid falling into the trap of war and the quagmire of an arms race. At the same time, China will continue to implement the Global Security Initiatives and make its due contribution to maintaining world peace.

俄乌冲突下,中国既要适度 “ 示强 ”,向国际社会亮明一个中国的原则与底线,也要防止落入战争陷阱,陷入军备竞赛的泥潭。同时,继续践行全球安全倡议,为维护世界和平作出中国应尽的贡献。

We must demonstrate military strength in an appropriate manner and oppose bundling and hyping up the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taiwan issue. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, public opinion began to talk about “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow”. However, the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and is not comparable to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Faced with constant external provocation and hyping up of the Taiwan issue by means of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China must not only prevent itself from becoming entangled in an endless arms race, but also appropriately enhance its combat capabilities and concretely express China’s position and national red lines.

适度展现军事实力,反对捆绑炒作俄乌冲突与台湾问题。俄乌冲突爆发后,便有舆论渲染 “ 今日乌克兰,明日台湾 ” 的话题。然而台湾问题是中国内政,与俄乌冲突不具可比性。面对外界不断以俄乌冲突挑衅炒作台湾问题,中国既要防止陷入无休止的军备竞赛,又要适当提升作战能力,体现中国立场与国家红线。

We must actively work to reshape a reasonable, strong, and fair international collective security order and build a communication and exchange platform for all parties involved in the conflict. China’s Global Security Initiative, China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, and other propositions have received wide recognition. China should actively leverage its advantages as an international power for the purpose of ending war and promoting peace, implement the Global Security Initiative, build a platform for communication and exchange for all parties involved in the conflict, and jointly promote lasting peace and security in the world.


2.      With the world now divided into the Eastern and Western camps, China should adhere to true multilateralism and increase its flexibility in the diplomatic game


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again pushed the confrontation between global political camps to a climax. China must enhance its strategic flexibility in the diplomatic game, both safeguarding its own interests and seeking room for cooperation, both responding to challenges and creating opportunities, both adhering to principles and flexibly adopting a variety of means.


In relations between major powers, we must adhere to mutually beneficial cooperation and avoid confrontation and conflict. In its relations with major powers such as the United States, Russia, and the European Union, China should insist on expanding common interests, resolving differences and conflicts, and maintaining strategic stability. China is not afraid of U.S. suppression, nor does it seek all-out confrontation with the U.S. Instead, it advocates exploring the correct path for China and the U.S. to get along. China should continue to deepen its comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with Russia, manage relations with individual countries in the European Union in a phased, focused, and flexible manner, and strengthen cooperation in areas of consensus.


As regards relations with neighboring countries, we must adhere to the principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusiveness and promote common development. China should continue to promote the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” and build a community with a shared future among its neighbors. China should continue to strengthen its relations with ASEAN countries and make efforts to promote the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the consultations on the Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. China should also closely cooperate with countries in South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, and other regions in terms of regional security.

在周边关系上,坚持亲诚惠容,促进共同发展。中国应继续推进共建 “ 一带一路 ”,构建周边命运共同体。中国应不断加强与东盟国家关系,继续在推动区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)生效、南海行为准则(COC)磋商等方面发力。中国也应在地区安全等方面密切与南亚、中亚、西亚等国家的协作。

In relations with developing countries, we must uphold sincere friendship and strengthen unity and cooperation. China should continue to support developing countries in strengthening their own capacity building and improving their level of development. China should continue to deepen its relations with Africa, Latin America, Pacific island countries, and other countries, and expand the space for cooperation in fields such as politics, economy, security, and culture. Using regional cooperation mechanisms such as the Group of Twenty (G20), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the BRICS as platforms, China should unite emerging market countries and developing countries, enhance South-South cooperation, and contribute China’s strength to safeguarding the common interests of developing countries.


3.      Victory in the “cognitive war” is an intangible, and China must strengthen its ability to engage in “cognitive warfare” and improve its ability to shape narratives


The mapping of ideological struggle to the cognitive field is cognitive warfare. As an important battlefield in ideological struggle, the cognitive domain has become critical in the confrontation between Russia and the Western camp led by the United States. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, all parties demonstrate their legitimacy and rationality through discursive narratives, while questioning and counterattacking the other side’s motives and behaviors, “disparaging” the other side as “unjust” in the court of international public opinion. Cognitive offense and defense, and discursive narratives have become the forward position in the game between major powers.

意识形态斗争映射到认知领域,即为认知战。认知域作为意识形态斗争的重要战场,首当其冲成为俄罗斯与以美国为首的西方阵营对抗的关键。俄乌冲突中各方通过话语叙事,展示自己的正当性与合理性,同时质疑和反击对方动机与行为,将对方“ 贬” 为国际舆论场上的“ 失道者 ”。认知攻防、话语叙事成为大国博弈的前沿阵地。

Victory or defeat in the “cognitive war” has become the main factor affecting the reshaping of the international landscape. In order to fully compete in the court of international public opinion and for discursive power, both sides have come up with new tricks and are conducting games across multiple fields at the social, national, government, organizational, and even individual levels. Specifically, cognitive confrontation runs through the entire process of military warfare, and is deeply integrated with tactics such as S&T warfare, cyber warfare, and intelligence warfare. This has created new innovations in hybrid warfare and brought about new features in cognitive warfare such as the leader effect (首脑效应), total war (全民战争), and S&T empowerment.


As a world power, China must dare to speak out, dare to answer the call, and dare to engage in dialogue. First, in the court of international public opinion, China should actively advocate the concepts of peace, cooperation, and mutual benefit and emphasize respect for national sovereignty, maintenance of international rule of law, and the advocacy of fairness and justice. At the same time, China must refute various extreme remarks, such as the “clash of civilizations” and “new Cold War” theories, to prevent the international situation from deteriorating. Secondly, in terms of cognitive offense and defense, China must fully understand the positions and interests of all parties, have a good insight into the evolution of the international situation, be good at capturing key nodes, and put forward our positions and propositions in a targeted manner. Third, in terms of discourse and narrative, we must give full play to China’s cultural heritage and communication advantages, and innovate the discursive system to increase our persuasiveness and influence.

中国作为世界大国,必须敢于发声、敢于接话、敢于对话。首先,在国际舆论场上,中国要积极倡导和平、合作、共赢的理念,强调尊重国家主权、维护国际法治、倡导公平正义。同时,要批驳各种极端言论,如“ 文明冲突论”、“ 新冷战论”等,防止国际局势恶化。其次,在认知攻防方面,要充分了解各方立场和利益诉求,洞悉国际局势演变,善于捕捉关键节点,有针对性地提出我国立场和主张。再次,在话语叙事方面,我们要充分发挥我国的文化底蕴和传播优势,创新话语体系,使之更具说服力和影响力。

In addition, in the process of cognitive confrontation, the new methods and new tactics adopted by Russia and Ukraine can serve as lessons and inspirations: We must be good at using international laws and rules and position ourselves on the international moral high ground. We must also be good at using innovative technological means such as big data, machine learning, artificial intelligence generated content (AIGC), virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) to help us gradually improve our cognitive defense capabilities, effectively build a psychological line of defense, respond to the intrusion of Western ideology, and win international moral support.

此外,在认知对抗过程中,俄乌双方采用的新手段、新战法,都能给予我们思考和启示:既要善于利用国际法和国际规则,站在国际道义制高点;更要善于利用大数据、机器学习、生成式人工智能(Artificial Intelligence Generated Content, AIGC)、虚拟现实(Virtual Reality, VR)、增强现实(Augmented Reality,AR)等创新技术手段,帮助我们逐步提高认知防御能力,有效筑牢心理防线,应对西方意识形态入侵,争取国际道义支持。

4.      The “Cold War-style economic structure” is emerging again, and China should take the initiative to formulate rules and an economic order to reshape economic globalization


The destructive nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reshaped the balance of global economic power and fundamentally undermined the foundations that support economic globalization. However, in the long run, because it violates the objective fact that the global economy is deeply intertwined due to the development of productivity, this situation cannot give full play to the advantages of various economies and will inevitably go bankrupt under the impact of the objective law that productive forces determine production relations. In other words, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exposed the fragility and risks of the global manufacturing supply chain, showing that manufacturing supply chains that rely on external supplies are unsustainable.


From an international perspective, China must actively participate in the formulation of relevant rules in the field of international economics and trade in the process of reshaping economic globalization. In a new round of the restructuring of global economic and trade governance, we must be more proactive in seeking an international status that is consistent with our own economic strength, safeguard the due status of the multilateral trading system, and build a global production chain and supply chain governance system guided by the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind.


From a domestic perspective, China must adhere to an independently controllable, secure and reliable economy, promote the optimization and diversification of production and supply chains in different industries and stages. We must firmly hold key and core technologies in our own hands, form reserve production capacity in key areas, strive to achieve independent controllability in important fields and critical nodes, and build a production and supply chain with ourselves at the center to cope with external shocks and uncertainties.


What is particularly important is that, in key strategic areas of great power competition, such as high-end chips, basic software, and biomedicine, China must accelerate the compensation of our shortcomings in advanced technology, basic components, and key materials, make efforts to overcome the “chokepoint” problems affecting key core and technologies, and raise the level of upgrading the industrial base and modernizing production chains. At the same time, in fields where we have an advantage such as intelligentization, digitalization, and the Internet of Things, we must accelerate the promotion and application of new technologies, accelerate the digital transformation of industries, and ensure that the development of related industries always stands at the forefront of the global digital production chain and supply chain.

尤为重要的是,在大国竞争的关键战略领域,如高端芯片、基础软件、生物医药等,中国要加快补齐在先进工艺、基础零部件、关键材料等方面的短板,着力攻克关键核心技术 “ 卡脖子 ” 问题,提升产业基础高级化和产业链现代化水平。同时在智能化、数字化、物联网等优势领域,加快推广应用新技术,加速产业数字化转型,确保相关产业发展始终站在全球数字产业链供应链前沿。

5.      S&T strength has become a decisive factor in national security, and China must vigorously improve its level of independent S&T innovation and promote S&T openness and cooperation


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the vital importance of S&T to national security. Currently, the S&T competition between China and the United States is in a state of asymmetric competition. Overall, there is still a definite gap between China’s S&T strength and that of the United States. China should make use of little things to achieve great results, take an inward-looking and enterprising path in the context of asymmetric competition, change the international competitive landscape through independent domestic innovation, and ultimately return to a situation where global S&T cooperation outweighs competition.


We must clarify the main goals of S&T development and promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure. At present, China and the United States are at different stages of S&T development. The United States has the status of an established S&T power, while China is in the position of an emerging country in terms of S&T. This leads to different emphases in the respective S&T development goals of China and the United States. The United States is now using technology more as a tool for military offense and warfare. China should first use technology to serve industrial progress and the transformation and upgrade of its domestic economy. Therefore, China should maintain its strategic determination, continue to focus on the standard of economic construction, increase efforts to cultivate new, high-quality productive forces, and form new potential growth points. At the same time, we should guide more private sector entities to participate in S&T innovation, smooth out the road for the conversion of S&T achievements into practical applications through industrialization and technological innovation, improve total factor productivity and the per capita output ratio, and provide medium- and long-term support for China’s rise as an S&T power.


We must expand opening up to the outside world on the basis of independent innovation. The independent controllability of S&T and open cooperation are the two wings that allow S&T development to fly. The two promote each other and move forward in the same direction. Historical experience shows that no advanced technology can be attracted from outside, and this is especially true of military technology. Independent innovation in S&T is increasingly becoming a fundamental factor in the ability of a country to achieve strategic independence. On the basis of promoting strategic independence in S&T, China should also promote further openness, exchanges, and cooperation in S&T and continue to climb to the top of the S&T value chain. Today, advanced S&T cannot be separated from globalized R&D that takes place across countries and regions. China should vigorously encourage its S&T companies to go global and participate in international competition, so as to better carry out cooperation and gain competitive advantages in the process of their globalized expansion.


6.      The global green and low-carbon transformation will continue to be marginalized for a time, and China should enhance its energy resilience


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has posed some difficulties and challenges to the global low-carbon energy transition. First, the sharp fluctuations in energy prices have imposed immense costs and pressures on the economies and societies of various countries, affecting their investment in and support for low-carbon energy. Second, the instability and insufficiency of their energy supplies have caused some countries to temporarily restart or extend the use of high-carbon energy such as coal and oil to meet their energy needs, thereby increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the speed and degree of the energy transformation of different countries vary due to factors such as national conditions, economic situations, and policy-making, which may lead to difficulties and complexity in global low-carbon energy cooperation. It can be seen that the energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the slowdown of progress in green development indicate that China should enhance the resilience of its energy development and strengthen its energy independence and policy autonomy.


To this end, China must firmly seize the initiative as a major power in energy development. As the world’s largest energy consumer, how to effectively ensure national energy security and effectively safeguard national economic and social development have always been the main questions that China must answer in the field of energy development. Only by holding the energy rice bowl in our own hands and fully ensuring our national energy security can we seize the initiative in future development and firmly maintain our bottom line of security in the new development landscape. At the same time, in terms of energy endowments, China is a country with abundant coal resources, but it is relatively lacking in oil and natural gas reserves. Energy security is tied to development security and national security, and we must not lose it. At this stage, China’s industrialization and urbanization are advancing in an in-depth manner, and energy demands will inevitably continue to grow. Under the impact of the energy production structure, fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas account for the vast majority of total energy consumption in China’s energy consumption structure. Considering energy security, the environment, and the economy, China should develop a diversified energy structure. From a short-, medium-, or long-term perspective, developing clean energy on the basis of ensuring energy security is an important strategy and successful practice that allows China to ensure our energy security.


Finally, China should objectively analyze the context of international green development from an international perspective, rationally plan out the clean energy industry in accordance with its own energy industry layout and carbon neutrality goals, take into account the characteristics needed to prevent the impact of the international energy crises and the risks of domestic energy transformation, and gradually embark on a path of green development with Chinese characteristics so as to cope with a new round of international energy crises and competition.


7.      As the uncertainty facing the international financial market increases, China must accelerate the strengthening of its financial industry and build a financial superpower


The Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased the uncertainty risks facing the international financial market. Research shows that countries affected by war tend to be isolated in the global stock market network. In addition, given the high dependence of the Chinese economy on global resources and global trade, the impact of the war on the Chinese financial market may be even more serious. As China is at the center of geopolitical conflicts, it faces greater pressure from international capital outflows, and our risk of volatility in financial assets and the real estate market has also increased. To this end, China’s financial industry should accelerate efforts to strengthen its foundation and build a financial superpower.


We must strengthen financial infrastructure and systems construction. The escalation of financial sanctions by the United States and Europe has prompted emerging markets such as China, India, and Russia to pay more attention to building independent cross-border payment and settlement systems, but the number of banks participating in these systems remains limited. As of the end of 2023, China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has attracted participants from 111 countries and regions, but the vast majority are indirect participants, and most of the direct participants are also overseas branches of Chinese banks. China should continue to improve the functions of CIPS, improve the cross-border payment experience, and push it to better assume the role of the main channel for cross-border RMB payments and clearing. China should also optimize bilateral swap agreements between central banks to make them more transparent and promote their increased use in trade-related activities. We should strengthen exchanges and cooperation with international multilateral organizations and improve the design of cross-border investment and financing mechanisms. In international financial hub cities that are a construction priority, we can promote the smooth flow of cross-border funds and investment and financing pilot projects as well as align with the highest international standards. At the same time, in terms of the financial order, the United States has a dominant position in the IMF and is weaponizing finance. China needs to leverage the BRICS mechanism to promote the internationalization of our currency and improve the international monetary system through digital currencies and common currencies.

加强金融基础设施和制度建设。美欧金融制裁的升级促使中国、印度和俄罗斯等新兴市场更加重视建设独立的跨境支付结算系统,但参与这些系统的银行数量仍然有限。截至 2023 年末,中国的 “ 跨境银行间支付系统”(CIPS)已有 111 个国家和地区的参与者,但绝大多数是间接参与者,大部分直接参与者也是中国银行的海外分支机构。中国应继续完善 CIPS 功能,改善跨境支付体验,更好地发挥人民币跨境支付清算主渠道的作用。中国还应优化央行的双边互换协议,使其更加透明,促进其更多用于与贸易相关的活动。应加强与国际多边组织交流合作,完善跨境投融资机制设计。在重点建设的国际金融中心城市,可推进畅通跨境资金流动和投融资试点,对接高标准国际规则。同时,金融秩序方面,美国在 IMF 一股独大,而且将金融武器化。中国需借助金砖机制,推行本币国际化,通过数字货币、共同货币完善国际货币体系。

We must enhance the breadth, depth, and resilience of financial markets. The weakness of the investment and financing functions of the RMB has, to a considerable extent, constrained China’s capital account opening process and obstructed the scope of utilization of China’s cross-border financial infrastructure and the upgrade of the RMB from a trade currency to an investment and reserve currency. China has taken a unique path to currency internationalization. Specifically, we are striving to build an offshore RMB financial asset infrastructure platform while remaining cautious about capital account opening. Research has shown that, in terms of the ratio of global reserves of currencies to trade volume, the RMB is already close to the euro, indicating that this model has achieved certain results. However, the development of the offshore RMB market remains dependent on the central bank’s U.S. dollar reserves, which further increases dependence on the U.S. dollar. At the end of 2022, the balance of RMB deposits in major offshore markets was about RMB 1.5 trillion, accounting for a very low proportion of RMB deposits. As the scale of the offshore market grows, the limitations of this model will become increasingly pronounced. Therefore, significantly increasing the breadth and depth of China’s domestic financial markets, especially the capital market, will provide the basis for China to promote the high-level opening-up of the financial industry in an orderly manner. This is also the foundation for enhancing international capital’s confidence in RMB assets from a financial perspective and improving the ability of China’s financial industry to cope with external shocks. To this end, we must take the rule of law and marketization construction as our fundamental orientation, promote reforms to the registration system based on institution building, and accelerate the development of the RMB bond market.

提升金融市场的广度、深度和韧性。人民币投融资功能的薄弱在相当程度上制约了中国资本账户开放进程,阻碍了中国跨境金融基础设施的使用率和人民币从贸易货币向投资、储备货币的升级步伐。中国采取了一条独特的货币国际化之路,即努力建设离岸人民币金融资产基础平台,同时对资本账户开放保持谨慎。研究发现,从货币的全球储备与计价贸易额的比率看,人民币已经接近欧元,表明这一模式取得了一定成效。但离岸人民币市场的发展仍有赖央行美元储备,这又增加了对美元的依赖。2022 年末,主要离岸市场人民币存款余额约 1.5万亿元,占人民币存款的比例仍很低,随着离岸市场规模的壮大,这一模式的局限性将日益凸显。因此,大幅提升中国境内金融市场,特别是资本市场的广度和深度是中国有序推进金融业高水平对外开放的基础,也是从金融角度提升国际资本对人民币资产信心,提升中国金融业应对外部冲击能力的根基所在。为此,要以法治化、市场化建设为根本导向,以制度建设为基础推进注册制改革,加快发展人民币债券市场。

8.      The confrontational, protracted, and cruel nature of the transformation of the international order has become increasingly apparent, and China must be prepared for a protracted war


Taking a global view, in recent years countries around the world have expressed dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War global structure and international order. Both the “beneficiaries” and “victims” of the old order have expressed their hopes for change. Under Trump’s leadership, the United States has returned to isolationism and abandoned international multilateral mechanisms and treaties. The Global South is now even more skeptical about the fairness and legitimacy of the post-Cold War order and urgently demands a new structure to promote development. We can see that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is both a trigger for the future reorganization of the global landscape and a product and manifestation of the strategic game in the evolving post-Cold War global landscape. The old order has begun to disintegrate, but the new structure remains unclear. How China can continue to rise amid this uncertainty and turmoil has become the question of the century.

放眼全球,近年来世界各国都表现出对冷战后全球格局与国际秩序的不满,无论是旧秩序的 “ 受益者 ” 还是 “ 受害者 ”,都展现出对变革的期待。美国在特朗普引领下回归孤立主义怀抱,抛弃国际多边机制与条约;全球南方更是对后冷战秩序的公平与正当性存疑,迫切需要新格局来助力发展。可看出,俄乌冲突既是未来全球格局重组的诱因,也是冷战后全球格局演变中博弈的产物与体现。旧秩序已经开始瓦解,但新格局依旧不够明朗。中国如何在这种不确定性与动荡中持续崛起已经成为世纪课题。

At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects the conflicts of interest and value differences among major powers in the transformation of the international order. Its impact on the global landscape and order will be manifested through medium- and long-term spillover effects. However, the current military conflict involving nuclear powers poses the risk of escalation and spread at any time. International and regional affairs have entered a protracted and unpredictable passage through a hazardous zone of deep waters. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has gradually become a triggering factor for conflicts in other regions. Some local forces have taken advantage of the chaos to take action, and the fragmentation and intensification brought about by the conflict have continued to increase. “Instability” has become synonymous with the decade of the 2020s. The external environment no longer continuously progresses and improves. Instead, we have a situation of great changes and great struggles that are confrontational, protracted, and cruel.

同时,俄乌冲突反映了国际秩序变革中大国之间的利益冲突和价值分歧,其对世界格局与秩序造成的冲击将通过中长期的溢出效应显现,但当下涉及核大国的军事冲突,随时面临风险升级和扩散的灾难,国际与地区事务进入漫长、难以预测的深水区。俄乌冲突又逐渐成为其它地区冲突的诱发因素,一些地方势力“ 趁乱” 出手,冲突碎片化、激烈化程度都不断上升。“ 不稳定 ”成为 21 世纪 20 年代的代名词,持续向上向好的外部环境不复存在,取而代之的是充满斗争性、漫长性和残酷性的大变之局、大争之世。

On the one hand, China must be prepared to fight a protracted war, and on the other hand, we must also highlight Chinese values in the process of reorganizing the international landscape and rebuilding the international order. Tracking, analyzing, and assessing the global situation calmly, coolly, and objectively has become an everyday necessity of major powers. At the same time, in an unstable environment, China needs to become the world’s largest “stabilizer.” With a sense of responsibility for human civilization and a broad perspective, China seeks to become a “world connecting country” and a strong voice for “advocating peace rather than adding fuel to the fire, connecting rather than dividing, and opening up rather than closing down” during this turbulent period of the reshaping the global landscape and order.

中国一方面要做好打持久战的准备,另一方面也要在国际格局重组、国际秩序重建过程中突出中国价值。沉着、冷静、客观地追踪、分析、研判世界局势成为大国每日必修课。同时,在不稳定的环境中,中国更需要成为世界最大的“ 稳定器 ”。怀着对人类文明的责任心与大局观,中国要成为 “ 全球互联互通国”,在全球格局与秩序重塑动荡期中发出 “ 劝和而非拱火、连接而非分裂、开放而非封闭 ” 的强有力声音。

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Cite This Page

"Second Anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Effects and Implications [俄乌冲突两周年:影响与启示]", CSIS Interpret: China, original work published in Renmin University Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies [中国人民大学重阳金融研究院], February 21, 2024

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