Media Type: Academic article
Researchers at Yunnan University and East China University of Political Science argue China’s aid and investment to Africa are inaccurately portrayed by Western countries as “debt trap diplomacy,” exacerbating sovereign debt risks in African countries and driven primarily by strategic rather than commercial objectives. To rebut and limit the reach of such arguments, the authors suggest Beijing seek ways to diversify Chinese investment and aid across sectors and projects, help Chinese enterprises assess investment risk and follow laws and social norms of host countries, better target aid to national development conditions, and strengthen media engagement in Africa and the West.
A scholar from the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies argues that China’s economic engagement in Africa has become more complicated given a mix of external and internal factors – including souring relations between China and Western powers, and the shifting demands and expectations of African countries. As a prognosis, the author suggests that Beijing should enhance the complementarity and tangible impact of its global initiatives, devote greater attention to green development and other emerging development needs in Africa, and develop consultation mechanisms with African countries to address “pain points” as they arise.
Zhang Gaoyuan, a security scholar at Peking University, draws lessons for China amid what she terms the digital transformation of intelligence gathering. Zhang argues dual-use technology such as drones and Starlink satellites, open-source social media information, and efforts by non-combatants have been pivotal in guaranteeing Ukraine a steady flow of battlefield intelligence. As a prognosis for China, she promotes greater research into the opportunities and risks digital technologies present for intelligence acquisition and security.
This piece from the U.S. studies program at Ministry of State Security-linked think tank China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations argues that the Ukraine war heralds the end of the post-Cold War order. The article argues the United States has been the biggest beneficiary of the war so far, leveraging the crisis to strengthen its alliance network and fight a proxy war with Russia. The authors of the report warn countries in Asia to remain vigilant to what they describe as U.S. efforts to preserve and expand its hegemony in ways that might destabilize the region.
Zhou Yu, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, suggests the U.S. will increasingly resort to financial sanctions to pursue its geopolitical goals. Frequent and large-scale deployment of sanctions, Zhou argues, will ultimately undermine their effectiveness by encouraging other states to reduce their dependence on global financial public goods controlled by the U.S., and by dampening enthusiasm for sanctions among other Western powers, which the U.S. relies on to make its actions effective.
A researcher affiliated with the People’s Bank of China examines the nature and effects of a perceived growing U.S. tendency to deploy financial sanctions toward geopolitical objectives. The article outlines an extensive set of recommendations Beijing can take to better prepare for and protect against various sanctions scenarios, including deepening China’s global economic integration, improving diplomatic and trade ties with U.S. allies and partners, and promoting reform of the international monetary order.
Zhang Bei, a senior economist at the People’s Bank of China, warns that risks to China’s financial security are increasing amid an evolving geopolitical environment. Zhang sees sanctions as a double-edged sword, with economic and reputational costs to the sanctioning country—particularly if the sanctioned country is well-integrated with the global economy and financial markets. As a result, Zhang argues that China can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential sanctions by increasing financial openness and integration, diversifying trade and investment relations, and taking a more active role in global economic and monetary governance, including through measured RMB internationalization.
Hu Zhongyue, a scholar of Marxism, examines the collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) to distill cautionary lessons for the CCP. He argues that by opening its legacy—particularly under Lenin and Stalin—to reevaluation and critique, the CPSU undermined its political legitimacy and public trust in socialism. As a prognosis, Hu emphasizes the gravity of ideological work and urges vigilance to such trends in Chinese society, especially as new technologies disrupt the traditionally unidirectional flow of information.
In this second installment of a three-part paper on the collapse of the Soviet Union, former Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Li Shenming highlights the role of the “fifth column”—forces that worked within the USSR and the leadership of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) to spread Western values and viewpoints. As a prognosis, Li argues that the CCP must prioritize ideological work, maintain absolute control over the military, and be vigilant of what he terms Western efforts to “infiltrate” China, including through cultural and economic exchange.
Zuo Fengrong, an expert in Soviet history, examines trends in Chinese scholarship on the USSR’s collapse across the past thirty years. Zuo argues that while this literature advanced over time with the availability of newly declassified archival sources, it has stagnated more recently. As a prognosis, Zuo encourages renewed attention to the failure of Soviet socialism and the Communist Party of the Soviet Union’s (CPSU) loss of power, in order to extract lessons for China.