Media Type: Academic article
An expert on Taiwan and cross-Strait relations delves deep into the concept of public opinion and its role in Taiwan’s political system. The author seeks to discredit public opinion trends in Taiwan through a variety of arguments, such as by suggesting they are manipulated through strategic question design and often purely a reflection of elite opinion.
Wu Yi, a Taiwan scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, provides an in-depth analysis of the January 2024 legislative and executive elections in Taiwan. Wu suggests Lai Ching-te’s poor performance relative to Tsai Ing-wen in 2020 and gains for the opposition in the legislature foreshadow growing political polarization in Taiwan and uncertainties for cross-Strait relations going forward.
Wu Yi, the director of the political economy research department at the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, which took place in January 2024. Wu argues that the strong performance of the KMT (Beijing’s preferred party) and TPP in the elections mean the LY will serve as a stabilizing force for cross-Strait relations going forward, given the support in both parties for greater cross-Strait engagement and shared opposition to what Wu frames as the “independence” leanings of Lai Ching-te, then the president-elect from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Zhang Hua, a leading scholar on Taiwan at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes the likely cross-Strait policies of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s newly elected president. Zhang suggests that Lai has and is likely to tailor his cross-Strait approach based on the audiences he is addressing and his various roles—as president, as leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, and as a potential presidential candidate for 2028. Zhang also suggests that Lai’s cross-Strait policy is likely to become sharper-edged in a second term.
This piece from two Russia scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is a part of the 2024 version of an annual volume on international politics published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. The authors explore factors influencing the dynamics and future of the war in Ukraine two years in. They argue that political factors (such as 2024 elections in the United States and Europe, and Putin’s growing preoccupation with regime security) will shape the intensity of the war, while economic factors will influence its duration.
Zhang Jie, a prominent scholar at the Xi’an International Studies University, suggests India’s intensified engagement with Global South aims to amplify New Delhi’s voice in global governance, compete with China for geopolitical influence, and deepen ties with Washington. Zhang suggests other Global South countries are unlikely to be receptive to this engagement, given their inherent suspicion of India’s growing ties with the West and fear of friction with China.
This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.
In this lengthy article, a BRI researcher at China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank, outlines perceived challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative around its 10th anniversary. These include geopolitical risks from competition with the United States, political and financial instability within partner countries, weak economic growth, and ill-defined goals and poor marketing. The author recommends Beijing improve risk monitoring and project oversight to manage financial and economic risks, and improve the BRI’s reputation across the globe by deepening diplomatic cooperation with a wide array of countries.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.
Scholars from Huaqiao University explore the implications of generative AI for China’s prosperity and national security, following the launch of ChatGPT. They emphasize the pivotal role leadership in AI research and applications will play in global power distributions going forward, given implications for standards-setting ability, productivity growth, and information control.