Media Type: Academic article
Zhang Hua, a leading scholar on Taiwan at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes the likely cross-Strait policies of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s newly elected president. Zhang suggests that Lai has and is likely to tailor his cross-Strait approach based on the audiences he is addressing and his various roles—as president, as leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, and as a potential presidential candidate for 2028. Zhang also suggests that Lai’s cross-Strait policy is likely to become sharper-edged in a second term.
This piece from two Russia scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is a part of the 2024 version of an annual volume on international politics published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. The authors explore factors influencing the dynamics and future of the war in Ukraine two years in. They argue that political factors (such as 2024 elections in the United States and Europe, and Putin’s growing preoccupation with regime security) will shape the intensity of the war, while economic factors will influence its duration.
Zhang Jie, a prominent scholar at the Xi’an International Studies University, suggests India’s intensified engagement with Global South aims to amplify New Delhi’s voice in global governance, compete with China for geopolitical influence, and deepen ties with Washington. Zhang suggests other Global South countries are unlikely to be receptive to this engagement, given their inherent suspicion of India’s growing ties with the West and fear of friction with China.
This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.
In this lengthy article, a BRI researcher at China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank, outlines perceived challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative around its 10th anniversary. These include geopolitical risks from competition with the United States, political and financial instability within partner countries, weak economic growth, and ill-defined goals and poor marketing. The author recommends Beijing improve risk monitoring and project oversight to manage financial and economic risks, and improve the BRI’s reputation across the globe by deepening diplomatic cooperation with a wide array of countries.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.
Scholars from Huaqiao University explore the implications of generative AI for China’s prosperity and national security, following the launch of ChatGPT. They emphasize the pivotal role leadership in AI research and applications will play in global power distributions going forward, given implications for standards-setting ability, productivity growth, and information control.
A leading Middle East scholar at a Ministry of State Security-affiliated think tank explores scenarios for U.S.-China competition in the region. He argues that regional frictions between the two powers have remained relatively limited to date, in part due to diversified forms of engagement. Detailing debates on Middle East strategy in Washington and Beijing, however, he warns that relations may become more fractious going forward.
Scholars at the Shanghai International Studies University suggest Beijing is deepening its economic, diplomatic, and security engagement in the Middle East largely at the request of countries in the region. Going forward, the authors suggest that as it seeks greater international influence, Beijing will need to carefully manage its regional engagement in order to avoid disappointing expectations among these states and minimize points of frictions with other extra-regional powers such as the U.S. and EU.
Scholars at Guizhou University and Renmin University see the availability, quality, and productivity of arable land in China under pressure, and outline steps Beijing should take to increase agricultural production and reduce food waste. Among other approaches, they recommend Beijing encourage greater investment in food storage and transportation R&D, shape consumption patterns, and improve the application of innovative technologies to the sector.