Translation Category: Foreign Policy
In this article, Renmin University scholar Cui Shoujun assesses the drivers of evolving China-Latin America relations and identifies tailwinds and headwinds for this relationship down the road. He identifies 2015 as a transformative year in this relationship, marked by the establishment of the China-CELAC forum and more strategic regional engagement by China in the following years. He suggests that going forward, Beijing will need to appreciate diversity among regional capitals, encourage broader and more even Chinese commercial engagement across Latin American countries, and navigate U.S. intentions and anxieties about PRC presence in Latin America in seeking to develop ties with the region.
Lou Yu, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), traces opportunities and challenges for continued development of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and broader regional engagement in Latin America. Lou is relatively sober on prospects for bilateral ties, pointing to the geopolitical situation in Latin America (specifically, growing U.S. and European interests in the region), substantial crime rates and associated security challenges to Chinese investment, and political instability in many Latin American countries. Nevertheless, Lou suggests that political trends in the region – including a resurgence of left-leaning governments – may result in greater openness to BRI engagement going forward.
Two scholars from Fudan University analyze the evolving role of the Belt and Road Initiative in cultivating China-Latin America relations. They characterize Latin America as a key partner that China can work with to promote a reorientation of its trading relationships away from the United States and other advanced Western economies, and they trace growing diplomatic, cultural, and economic exchange between the two sides. Nevertheless, the authors also soberly identify complex challenges that could undermine such developments, including U.S. suspicion of China’s engagement in the region and political and social instability in many Latin American countries. They recommend Beijing proactively seek to deepen cooperation with Latin America on supply chains, infrastructure construction, and people-to-people exchanges, and strategically address the development needs of Latin American countries in order to build influence in the region.
A researcher from the China Institute of International Studies analyzes the Biden administration’s diplomacy with African countries in the food and agriculture space. He argues that U.S. aid and new initiatives designed to improve Africa’s food security are motivated by a broader strategy of maintaining American dominance in the region, securing future markets for U.S. agricultural products and secure sources of critical minerals, and curbing China’s growing influence on the continent.
A prominent Russia scholar, Feng Shaolei, analyzes the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that it reflects deep structural changes in the international system. These changes include increasing polarization between Russia and the West and growing relevance of the Global South in international affairs. Feng suggests that following the war, what he terms an “Asian Mediterranean” or Eurasian economic sphere will emerge, attendant with Russia’s pivot to the East and what he sees as China’s strengthening position in the Asia-Pacific.
Zhang Jie, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes growing coordination among the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. Zhang frames this trilateral coordination as evidence that Washington is aiming to expand its economic and security influence in the region. In response, Zhang recommends Beijing strengthen diplomatic and economic engagement with its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific, focusing in particular on small and medium-sized states.
This piece, written prior to the Putin-Kim summit in June 2024, analyzes deepening ties between Russia and North Korea amid an increase in high-level diplomatic visits. The authors argue that the bilateral relationship is entering a new stage, driven by shared assessments of the regional and global order, Russia’s strategic reorientation away from Europe and the West, and mutual diplomatic and economic needs. The authors warn that increasingly close Russia-North Korea ties may further destabilize regional security in Northeast Asia.
Li Min, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, provides an overview of Russia’s shifting relations with North and South Korea, pointing to increasingly close ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. Conversely, Li suggests, Russia’s previously strong relations with South Korea have deteriorated since its invasion of Ukraine and Seoul’s support for Kyiv. Despite these trends, in Li’s analysis it is unlikely that Russia will completely abandon its relationship with South Korea, just as its burgeoning trade partnership with North Korea has its limits.
In this transcript of a keynote speech given by Ding Xiaoxing, the director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), he outlines the major trends and features of the war in Ukraine two years on. He highlights the emergence of commercial technology on the battlefield and the high human and financial costs of the war, and argues that continued U.S. aid to Ukraine will be a decisive variable impacting the war’s future dynamics.
This report, written by a group of scholars at the Renmin University Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies led by Wang Wen, the institute’s president, takes stock of Russia’s war in Ukraine at its second anniversary. The chapters delve into geopolitical, economic, financial, and military dimensions of the war, and draw conclusions for China. They recommend Beijing strengthen technology self-reliance, enhance the security of its energy supplies, improve its diplomatic narratives, and take a more active role in global economic standards-setting.