Translation Tag: foreign policy
In this article, Renmin University scholar Cui Shoujun assesses the drivers of evolving China-Latin America relations and identifies tailwinds and headwinds for this relationship down the road. He identifies 2015 as a transformative year in this relationship, marked by the establishment of the China-CELAC forum and more strategic regional engagement by China in the following years. He suggests that going forward, Beijing will need to appreciate diversity among regional capitals, encourage broader and more even Chinese commercial engagement across Latin American countries, and navigate U.S. intentions and anxieties about PRC presence in Latin America in seeking to develop ties with the region.
Lou Yu, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), traces opportunities and challenges for continued development of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and broader regional engagement in Latin America. Lou is relatively sober on prospects for bilateral ties, pointing to the geopolitical situation in Latin America (specifically, growing U.S. and European interests in the region), substantial crime rates and associated security challenges to Chinese investment, and political instability in many Latin American countries. Nevertheless, Lou suggests that political trends in the region – including a resurgence of left-leaning governments – may result in greater openness to BRI engagement going forward.
Two scholars from Fudan University analyze the evolving role of the Belt and Road Initiative in cultivating China-Latin America relations. They characterize Latin America as a key partner that China can work with to promote a reorientation of its trading relationships away from the United States and other advanced Western economies, and they trace growing diplomatic, cultural, and economic exchange between the two sides. Nevertheless, the authors also soberly identify complex challenges that could undermine such developments, including U.S. suspicion of China’s engagement in the region and political and social instability in many Latin American countries. They recommend Beijing proactively seek to deepen cooperation with Latin America on supply chains, infrastructure construction, and people-to-people exchanges, and strategically address the development needs of Latin American countries in order to build influence in the region.
A prominent Russia scholar, Feng Shaolei, analyzes the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that it reflects deep structural changes in the international system. These changes include increasing polarization between Russia and the West and growing relevance of the Global South in international affairs. Feng suggests that following the war, what he terms an “Asian Mediterranean” or Eurasian economic sphere will emerge, attendant with Russia’s pivot to the East and what he sees as China’s strengthening position in the Asia-Pacific.
Zhang Jie, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzes growing coordination among the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. Zhang frames this trilateral coordination as evidence that Washington is aiming to expand its economic and security influence in the region. In response, Zhang recommends Beijing strengthen diplomatic and economic engagement with its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific, focusing in particular on small and medium-sized states.
Li Min, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, provides an overview of Russia’s shifting relations with North and South Korea, pointing to increasingly close ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. Conversely, Li suggests, Russia’s previously strong relations with South Korea have deteriorated since its invasion of Ukraine and Seoul’s support for Kyiv. Despite these trends, in Li’s analysis it is unlikely that Russia will completely abandon its relationship with South Korea, just as its burgeoning trade partnership with North Korea has its limits.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.
This is a transcript of a July 2023 speech delivered by Shi Yinhong, an international relations scholar at Renmin University, and an interview conducted by Xue Li, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Shi argues that due to rising suspicion of China in developing countries and economic resource constraints at home, Beijing must become much more targeted and responsive to the needs of developing countries in initiating and facilitating projects along the BRI. Shi also encourages Beijing and Chinese experts to be careful when making public assessments of the geo-strategic significance of the BRI so as not to raise concerns in potential partner countries.
Dai Changzheng, a national security scholar at the Beijing-based University of International Business and Economics, argues China’s external environment is becoming more challenging due to rising tensions with the United States and heightened risk of pandemics, economic crises, and regional conflicts. Yet, Dai suggests that Beijing now has significant power to shape its external environment, given its substantial economic growth in past decades. Dai recommends Beijing advance and preserve China’s interests in this new environment by deepening ties with developing and regional countries and actively participating in global governance institutions.
A Middle East researcher explores drivers behind Arab countries’ growing interest in BRICS membership, on the back of successful accession of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates to the organization in 2023. He argues that the countries hope to benefit economically from closer ties with China and Russia in the energy field, but also see BRICS membership as a way to accelerate the formation of a multipolar world order more favorable to their interests.