Media Type: Academic article
A leading Middle East scholar at a Ministry of State Security-affiliated think tank explores scenarios for U.S.-China competition in the region. He argues that regional frictions between the two powers have remained relatively limited to date, in part due to diversified forms of engagement. Detailing debates on Middle East strategy in Washington and Beijing, however, he warns that relations may become more fractious going forward.
Scholars at the Shanghai International Studies University suggest Beijing is deepening its economic, diplomatic, and security engagement in the Middle East largely at the request of countries in the region. Going forward, the authors suggest that as it seeks greater international influence, Beijing will need to carefully manage its regional engagement in order to avoid disappointing expectations among these states and minimize points of frictions with other extra-regional powers such as the U.S. and EU.
Scholars at Guizhou University and Renmin University see the availability, quality, and productivity of arable land in China under pressure, and outline steps Beijing should take to increase agricultural production and reduce food waste. Among other approaches, they recommend Beijing encourage greater investment in food storage and transportation R&D, shape consumption patterns, and improve the application of innovative technologies to the sector.
Experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences argue China’s domestic supply of agricultural commodities is insufficient and import sources are too geographically concentrated. In great detail, the authors advance recommendations to make China’s food supply more resilient, secure, and green. Among other suggestions, they advocate improving the application of advanced technology to the farming sector, reconciling geographical gaps between concentration of inputs (such as water) and farmland, diversifying sourcing toward countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and improving waste utilization.
Scholars from Renmin University argue that China is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks and rising prices for agricultural commodities triggered by the Ukraine war. A volatile and challenging geopolitical outlook, the authors suggest, represents a long-term risk for China’s food security. The authors call on Beijing to diversify sourcing of China’s food supply (including away from the United States) by encouraging greater Chinese investment in the Russian agricultural sector and pursuing trade agreements with a wider range of partners.
Experts from China Agricultural University argue the war in Ukraine will have long-term impacts on food supply chains and the global economy, causing many states to improve agricultural self-sufficiency, hoard supplies, and restrict exports. In this environment, the scholars suggest Beijing reduce its vulnerability to Western sanctions and enhance its influence over international food supply chains by encouraging Chinese agricultural conglomerates to develop a larger international presence and by better regulating and supporting agricultural production and innovation at home.
Cai Fang, a top Chinese economist, argues that China’s low fertility rate can be remedied with the right set of policy solutions. Cai recommends Beijing focus on policies that improve socio-economic development levels and promote gender equality, diagnosing these factors as key constraints on decisions around childbirth.
Song Guoyou, an expert on U.S.-China economic relations at Fudan University, evaluates Beijing’s response so far to de-risking strategies adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations. Song argues that China can limit both the scope and negative impacts of such measures by seeking to maintain stable relations with Europe and U.S. allies more generally, diversifying export markets, publicly contributing to global economic goods through promotion of the BRI and participation in RCEP, and sustaining U.S. business interest in China.
A pair of Chinese economists argue that the U.S. will have a difficult time effectively de-risking from China due to a variety of hurdles, including tensions with allies over the speed and scope of strategies, vested U.S. business interests, and partisan debates about China policy within the United States. To limit the scope and impact of U.S. technology and economic policies, they suggest, Beijing should seek to improve diplomatic relations with U.S. allied and partner nations, expand economic ties with developing countries, remain open to diplomatic engagement with Washington, and invest in China’s science and technology ecosystem to address innovation bottlenecks.
A prominent scholar of China-Africa relations argues that other major powers with a presence in Africa are increasingly wary of China’s activity on the continent. Since continued economic and political engagement in Africa is in China’s interests, Zhang argues, Beijing should maximize its room for maneuver by allaying such concerns. While Beijing should tailor strategies by country, Zhang advocates showing “due consideration” for other countries’ goals in Africa where they do not impinge on China’s core interests, pursuing opportunities for cooperation where they present themselves, and limiting unnecessarily provocative activities.