Translation Category: Foreign Policy
Feng Yujun, a leading scholar of China-Russia relations, outlines Russia’s evolving geopolitical posture and outlook two years into its war in Ukraine. Feng explores how Russia is adapting diplomatically and economically to war-induced isolation from West, including by expanding its relations with the Global South. Moscow’s relations with Beijing remain strong, Feng argues, although framings of the partnership as “limitless” have ceded from official Chinese discourse.
This piece from two Russia scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is a part of the 2024 version of an annual volume on international politics published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS. The authors explore factors influencing the dynamics and future of the war in Ukraine two years in. They argue that political factors (such as 2024 elections in the United States and Europe, and Putin’s growing preoccupation with regime security) will shape the intensity of the war, while economic factors will influence its duration.
Zhang Jie, a prominent scholar at the Xi’an International Studies University, suggests India’s intensified engagement with Global South aims to amplify New Delhi’s voice in global governance, compete with China for geopolitical influence, and deepen ties with Washington. Zhang suggests other Global South countries are unlikely to be receptive to this engagement, given their inherent suspicion of India’s growing ties with the West and fear of friction with China.
In this interview, Xu Poling, a Russia expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, reflects on lessons learned from recent research trips to the country. He seeks to explain Russia’s relative resilience in the face of sanctions, concluding several factors are at work – the quick imposition of strict outbound capital controls, forced sales of foreign currency to increase central bank holdings, insistence on selling gas to Europe in rubles, and de-dollarization efforts since 2014.
This article, penned by scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tongji University, explores how China can use the BRI to navigate U.S. trade and technology controls. Drawing on three case studies of BRI projects in Southeast Asia, the authors suggest Beijing can better insulate itself from the impact of U.S. controls through deepened economic integration with BRI partners. They also argue it will be important to ensure BRI projects benefit partners in areas from technology upgrading to human capital development, to challenge what they see as Western efforts to discredit the BRI among China’s neighboring countries.
In this lengthy article, a BRI researcher at China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based think tank, outlines perceived challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative around its 10th anniversary. These include geopolitical risks from competition with the United States, political and financial instability within partner countries, weak economic growth, and ill-defined goals and poor marketing. The author recommends Beijing improve risk monitoring and project oversight to manage financial and economic risks, and improve the BRI’s reputation across the globe by deepening diplomatic cooperation with a wide array of countries.
A researcher at Peking University explores risks to future projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These risks, in his analysis, range from intensifying geopolitical competition to instability in the business environments of partner countries. The author highlights the need to address concerns in partner countries about the ultimate intent of BRI investments, associated with the heavy involvement of China’s SOEs. To address these risks, he recommends increasing intergovernmental dialogue with host countries, implementing risk assessment systems, and improving the reputation of the BRI by marketing Chinese culture through international exchanges, among other measures.
This is a transcript of a July 2023 speech delivered by Shi Yinhong, an international relations scholar at Renmin University, and an interview conducted by Xue Li, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Shi argues that due to rising suspicion of China in developing countries and economic resource constraints at home, Beijing must become much more targeted and responsive to the needs of developing countries in initiating and facilitating projects along the BRI. Shi also encourages Beijing and Chinese experts to be careful when making public assessments of the geo-strategic significance of the BRI so as not to raise concerns in potential partner countries.
Da Wei, a professor at Tsinghua University, argues the Xi-Biden summit in November 2023 revealed U.S.-China relations have entered a “new normal” characterized by four features: mutual acceptance that tension will continue indefinitely, mutual assessment that full-blown conflict would be unacceptable, mutual understanding that neither country will fulfill its strategic goals completely, and mutual observation that economic and social resilience is possible amidst intense bilateral competition.
Niu Haibin, a foreign policy scholar at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, explains the rising international influence of the Global South and assesses implications for China. Niu recommends Beijing amp up efforts to frame itself as a member of the Global South and publicly push for expansion of BRICS and other initiatives, which can enhance China’s ties with individual members of the Global South and build perceptions of China as a leader of among them.